BJK Cup - Can USA stop Italy?

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1:36Matt Roberts: Hello and welcome to the Tennis Podcast. It is Saturday the 20th of September. The Billie Jean King Cup finals semifinals have just been completed, which means there is just one stage to go in the crescendo of the 2025 competition. We're going to be talking about the semifinals today, looking ahead to the final. We're going to be doing it all with Matt and David, because Matt has been good enough to squeeze a podcast into his schedule ahead of the football. Very good of you to be here, Matt. making a point by wearing your Fulham kit, of course, places you'd rather be.

2:12Catherine Whitaker: Well, it's Derby Day, so had to be worn. But luckily, it was looking a little bit dicey for a second as Katie Bolter threatened to take Great Britain and the USA into a deciding match. But happily, I can be in two places at once, two of my favourite places on the podcast and at Craven Cottage all in one day.

2:35Matt Roberts: Yeah, today's podcast comes to you courtesy of the Jessica Bagula comeback. Matt has never been less Team GB than in the last 90 minutes. Super coach David Law is here. Hello, David.

2:51David Law: Yeah, coached my son's under-14s to, well, I say coached. I stood on the touchline and said, come on, boys, as we won 4-2, which is a rare occurrence.

3:02Matt Roberts: As far as I can gather from tennis, David, that is what coaching is.

3:06David Law: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Next one. Right here. Next one, boys. Don't worry about that one. Next one. Yeah, yeah. I do a lot of that. Yeah, right here. So, yeah, I did that in the morning. And, yeah, I was torn because I, I mean, and it's not a sort of patriotic thing. I do. Obviously, I guess I get a little bit of a rumbling in the stomach watching Britain and wanting them to do well because I'm British. But at the same time.

3:29Matt Roberts: You get hungry watching Great Britain.

3:32David Law: Well, you know, I get hungry most of the time, actually, if I'm still around too much. But I just, I was kind of into the comeback. And also, I've loved the competition of all of these ties. I mean, there's been really only one duffer of a tie, which was the Britain against Japan one, which wasn't that great. But, you know, even in the straightforward ones in terms of two zeros, they've all had drama and intrigue. and I really wouldn't have minded seeing doubles in this. And at the same time, I love the comebacks in these two rubbers that we had today.

4:12Matt Roberts: Yeah, we've had two great sets of semifinals. Today we had the USA beating GB 2-0, the doubles not needed, but two incredibly tight singles matches, won by Emma Navarro and Jessica Bagula, the USA reaching their first final of this competition since 2018. And yesterday we had Italy beating Ukraine, two rubbers to one. Marta Kostiuk beating Elisabetta Cotchioreto, 6-2, 6-3. Then things just started happening. Jasmine Paolini coming back from 3-6, 2-4 down to beat Elina Svitolina and Sara Ranian and Jasmine Paolini teaming up in the doubles to beat Marta Kostiuk and Ludmilla Kitchenock. 6-2, 6-3 in the doubles to get them to yet another final.

5:03Matt Roberts: This tie had everything, Matt.

5:07Catherine Whitaker: I feel like I've taken a lot of flack on this podcast over the last couple of days, and I would like to turn it back on you two and get you both to start.

5:17Matt Roberts: Are you in the silencing, you're silencing the doubt?

5:20Catherine Whitaker: I really am. I want an apology from both of you for underestimating Jasmine Paolini.

5:27David Law: Oh, come on. She nearly got beaten again. You know what I mean? I was that close from getting the bang on final.

5:36Catherine Whitaker: The word you're looking for, David.

5:38Matt Roberts: That close.

5:39Catherine Whitaker: Is okay. I underestimated Jasmine. I underestimated Jasmine.

5:43Matt Roberts: Thank you. Yeah.

5:45David Law: Keeps happening. Yeah.

5:47Matt Roberts: Let's talk about this match. This was the one, wasn't it? What an incredible tie. Well, incredible tie, but what an incredible match and rubber this was, the Jasmine Paolini comeback, the Alina Svitolina. I don't know. Was it a choke? It was certainly a tightening. I don't think so. It was certainly an uncomfortable watch in terms of the visible nerves, the very understandable visible nerves. But I personally think, I mean, maybe it's semantics, but I personally think choke is going too far. But you certainly saw all the evidence of how desperately she wanted it there. Writ large on her face and in her racket arm, she tightened up so badly, didn't she?

6:35Matt Roberts: And it was an anxious, it was a thrilling watch, but an incredibly anxious and tense watch as well.

6:44Catherine Whitaker: Yeah, I think if you had to pinpoint a moment, it would be the game when Svitolina was leading by a set and 4-2. And in that game, she hit a double fault and she missed a bit of a sitter of a volley on top of the net to help Paolini get the break back. And that was right at a time when Svitolina was just starting to move away from the incredibly impressive, bold, aggressive tennis that had got her in that winning position. You know, David's absolutely right. Like Svitolina was outplaying Jasmine Paolini here, serving really well and then just teeing off from the ground and put herself in that winning position.

7:28Catherine Whitaker: But yeah, at that moment, she started to not quite swing through the ball quite so strongly. And she started to drop the ball a bit short. And I think her feet got a little bit heavy. And you could see the angst on her face as the finish line was right there. But she knew that she was starting to get tight and get nervous. And simultaneously, Jasmine Paolini seized on that small bit of opportunity and stepped up and started going after her shots. and exhibiting a lot better body language. And it was those two things happening at once that really sort of turned this one around. But yeah, that game at 4-2, I think Svitolina will have a lot of regrets over it because she should have closed it and moved within one game of the match.

8:17Catherine Whitaker: But let Paolini in. And we've just seen Paolini do such incredible things in this competition. power Italy over the finish line and you know she'd literally come back from a from the same scoreline a set and four two down in the quarterfinals you know she was primed for that kind of comeback and once she got back into it Paolini she really did sort of take over and I think was was the deserving winner in the third set even though that third set had its incredible dramatic moments as well. There was a almost 17 minutes hold of serve for Paolini right at the start of the third set. And she did come through it, saving numerous break points.

9:00Catherine Whitaker: And then she broke straight away in the very next game. And I think that was a bit of a crusher for Svitolina. Svitolina did recover that break eventually to make it for all in the third set, but then played a really poor game just to give the break back to paulini and allow paulini to serve it out so there were these there were these tight moments throughout this incredible contest with both of them just giving absolutely everything but i i do think it was a tightening as you say catherine of of svitolina which just opened the door for paulini and then she just ran right through it and you had these opposing scenes, the absolutely irresistible joy of Jasmine Paolini and the crushing heartbreak, really, of Alina Svitolina.

9:54Catherine Whitaker: You know, how many chances is she going to have to be in that position to put Ukraine into the Billie Jean King Cup finals? We don't know. That felt like the moment and it got away from her.

10:08Matt Roberts: And I think it felt particularly like the moment because, OK, Kostiuk had already won. A win for Svitolina would have put Ukraine through not needing the doubles. But because it's Arani and Paolini waiting in the doubles, it feels like the whole tie, kind of no matter who they're playing. That second singles feels like the whole tie. You know, Kostiuk, Kitschnok is a good doubles team. I thought they played pretty well and had their moments in the doubles. But Arani and Paolini are just a class apart. And I do, I mean, it's obvious, isn't it, that that's the difference maker. But it not only impacts the fact that they more often than not almost always win the doubles, but it impacts mentally the dynamics of the singles matches because it's Arani and Paolini waiting in the doubles who are, I'm going to say foregone conclusion, not in the same podcast I'm having to fess up to underestimating Jasmine Paolini, but it's not far off, David.

11:16David Law: No, it makes me desperately want to see a deciding doubles between Arani Paolini and any team involving Taylor Townsend, really, because I think that she's about the only match that I could imagine that might find a way. But in this one, see, I don't view it as a choke, but certainly I agree with you that it was a tightening, and I think that that's understandable and acceptable in any match for you to have a moment where you're not quite as good as the rest of it. And that's what I think Svitolina had there. I think it was nerves-induced, but it wasn't much. She didn't give her much to work with there.

12:01David Law: I mean, she was dominating that match. I felt all week long that Paolini was hanging on just energy-wise, even though she's sort of, she finds it within herself to get motivated. I mean, she's always motivated, but to get inspired and to get energetic when actually I think she's been really flagging a bit and struggling a bit for form and just celebrating the point she digs out. Well, suddenly she found something that I haven't seen all tournament in from that 4-2 point onwards and yes there was that really long service hold at the start of the third set but all the way through I don't feel like Svitolina just disappeared you know Svitolina I thought was playing bloody tough tennis in that third set and asking all the right questions she was trying to go for a shot still she was staying in a lot of rallies lengthening them asking just about every type of question you can ask in a deciding set and i sort of thought sooner or later paulini's level is has got to dip here it just didn't and i just i i got a new level of respect for in that third set because of what what she withstood and and with it all on the line like that she she played her very best tennis of the tournament some of the best tennis i've seen her play all year in the third set of that semi-final um and you can take nothing away from her in that regard i mean yes i think svitolina gave her just that little bit of a door opening in the in the second set but that that doesn't do paulini enough credit really for what she for what she did and then you know you come out half an hour later when you you could very easily think the job's done and no she goes and joins up with irani and does another thoroughly professional job and kind of Well, she's on the court and does her side of the court and lets Arani just take over the way she does.

14:00David Law: Brilliant, absolutely brilliant, because I didn't see it coming. I mean, you know, they're basically three sets to love down, three games, you know, in terms of what Kostiuk's just put up. And to think that they've won it from there and they've kept doing it all week long.

14:18Catherine Whitaker: Yeah, I felt for Kostiuk because I thought, you know, She was absolutely locked in right from the start of her match against Elisabetta Cocciareto. You know, didn't give her anything. Had a real look in her eye. Had a lovely blend when Kostiuk plays well in that she can really go after the ball and attack the ball. But she's also a great athlete and mover and she can defend well and make life tricky for a player like Cocciareto who can't really out-hit her or outlast her. So there was kind of nowhere for Coccioretto to go in that one. And, you know, Costi puts them 1-0 up. And, you know, we wondered, didn't we, about does Paolini have a Svitolina problem?

15:02Catherine Whitaker: I'd actually forgotten that she had match points at the French Open. I knew that match was close, but I'd forgotten just how close Paolini was to winning it. And I think that sort of demonstrated that, OK, there wasn't a huge matchup problem. I felt maybe some of it was maybe mental baggage, you know, because Paolini had won the first set in Australia and ended up losing. She'd won the first set in Paris and had match points and ended up losing. And then she loses the first set here. it's almost like the team environment i think probably gar being on the bench was helpful in that respect and just not allowing her to sort of get down on this matchup that she was still in and she just kept believing and you know we've explained how she turned the match around so yeah it was it was really interesting seeing that dynamic that we've seen on tour or at the slams this year play out in a in a different competition with just a different set of circumstances and i I think those ended up kind of helping Paolini in this one.

16:03Catherine Whitaker: And yeah, Paolini and Irani in the doubles. I just can't, I can't get enough.

16:09Matt Roberts: How good was Irani?

16:10Catherine Whitaker: And like straight away, she was the best player on the court. You know, like I find it so interesting how a lot of the time you hear players say that singles players who've played singles that day, then coming into the doubles will be the sharp ones because they're seeing the ball really well. And, you know, I thought Kostiuk and Paolini played well in this doubles. But Arani, having been on the bench the whole day, was sharp straight away and is able to impose herself. She's able to impose her game, but also her personality on a match in that she really is the leader of that team. She's constantly shouting at Paolini in terms of instructing her whether to go for something or leave it.

16:57Catherine Whitaker: Or she's the one who says yours and mine. She's the real leader in that. And she takes charge of the net with those incredible reactions. I love Paolini's topspin forehands that act as lobs in the doubles. She's not actually properly doing a lob. She's just hitting her topspin forehand a little bit higher than she normally would. And it throws her opponents off the court with pace. It's an incredibly devastating shot. They continue to back up Irani's serve incredibly effectively. And I think the sharpness of Irani was contrasted with a bit of a cold performance from Kitschernok actually coming off the bench.

17:36Catherine Whitaker: I thought she was the weak link overall in this one. And yeah, I'm absolutely with David. I would love to see, obviously, the whole competition go down to the deciding doubles. but take the competition out of it, just the intrigue of have the US got a probably singles player and world number one doubles player combination that can trouble the experience and the canny nature of Irani and Paolini. I'm just desperate to see that tomorrow.

18:11Matt Roberts: OK, well, before we do more of a deep dive look ahead to the final, let's talk about how Team USA got there. It's very fresh in our minds. We've just been watching it. They beat Team GB two rubbers to nothing. Emma Navarro beating Sonne Cartel from a set down, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. And Jessica Bagula by an almost identical scoreline beating Katie Bolter, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2. So Navarro-Cartell in particular, I thought, was a real surprise delight of a match, David.

18:49David Law: Yeah, I think there's something about Cartell's game that is quite tricky for the top players who haven't seen that much of it. And it is a bit different to everybody else who's around. There are a few players that hit the forehand like Cartell does, but they've kind of retired. you think of Ash Barty and you think of Caroline Garcia people who've got this heavy forehand which is hit with a very extreme grip that seems to hang on to the strings for a long time and therefore when it flights over the net it's not your normal ball it doesn't go in a straight line it doesn't go like an arrow like some of them do and then just drop this one just seems to rise, rise, rise and then sink like a stone at the end and you think, you mentioned earlier on to us Catherine you keep thinking the thing's going out and then it doesn't

19:47Matt Roberts: From the camera angle on the TV I'm watching thinking every time she strikes the forehand I'm like, oh it's going two feet long and then it just plops in foot and a half inside the bass line I'm sort of on the edge of my seat all the time

20:01David Law: when she's sitting forehand And then the thing is, when it hits the ground, it then leaps off the ground with extra on it as well. So I think it's a tough ball to play against. And she's actually a much better player than a ranking, I think, Cartel. And I think she probably didn't get the results that she might have expected after Wimbledon. And I dare say they're going to come. I think she's got more ahead of her. Navarro has not been playing that well, really, this last few months. and I I mean it's probably easier to say in hindsight and when you're watching it and she's a set down and she's losing that I was thinking actually I wouldn't have minded having Hayley Baptiste in this match from an America point of view, she's another one with a forehand a little bit like that sometimes and she's got a bit more of a slap on the ball whereas I don't know, Navarro strokes the ball more but I love the way Navarro got back into it there was no panic and then there was actually quite a lot of time at the net and she was she was suddenly quickening things up and and kind of just I don't know whether this was a tactic that she cooked up with Lindsay Davenport or whether it was herself but I think she's a very clever match player that if things aren't going quite right she can find something else to do and you you better put her away because she she's had a lot of three set wins in her career I think I can certainly think even just anecdotally about a lot of them this year.

21:35David Law: She just very cleverly turned that match around and sort of showed her top 10 class, even though she's actually not at that ranking. Towards the end, she was showing why.

21:45Matt Roberts: And she's incredibly fit, isn't she? That's right. She seems as fresh and lively and on it and sort of up on the balls of her feet as much at the end of a match like that as at the beginning of it, but potentially even more so at the end. She seems to get stronger as a match goes on.

22:07Catherine Whitaker: Yeah, and that's something that I think in recent months, we talk about her slight lack of form over these past few months, that has gone away a bit. She started the year with an incredible record in deciding sets, winning seven of her first nine this year. and that was backing up 21 of 31 she won last year. But in the last few months, she has started to lose these three set matches. But this week at the Billie Jean King Cup, they've just been in her image, haven't they? You know, gritting her teeth and coming through, deciding set battles against Putin's saver and cartel today. And I loved this match.

22:48Catherine Whitaker: I thought it was so stylish. I think, you know, we've shouted out the cartel forehand Forehand, I think the other shot that she has, and Navarro has it as well, is a sliced backhand. It's quite rare, I think, on the WTA Tour that you get two players so comfortable slicing their backhands. And it made for exchanges that you didn't really know when they were going to end. And combined with great athleticism, particularly Navarro, is such an efficient and sort of quiet mover on a tennis court, but really quick and agile. and they just kept turning defence into attack and a lot of the time it was as a result of their sliced backhands extending rallies, putting the ball in awkward spots.

23:31Catherine Whitaker: I just really liked the way they matched up against each other and Cartel is clearly going through a developmental phase with her game. If you think back to the summer, she had that odd service motion when she was sort of putting her racket up high and then throwing the ball up after that. Well, she's got something more conventional service motion at the moment, but I think she's trying to make some gains in that shot. And I think that would be something that could potentially take her up another level because from the back of the court, OK, she's not got explosive power, but she's got enough power.

24:07Catherine Whitaker: And she's got the combination of the topspin forehand and the slice backhand. The topspin backhand is pretty good, too. She was hitting that down the line really well, I thought, today. so there's definitely a really good player in there with with cartel but credit to navarro as you said for for sticking in there turning it round um i i think cartel played a a couple of poor games after getting the third set back on serve she just just went away a little bit just slightly fell apart and and that was enough for navarro to to really close it out but yeah i I thought this was a really enjoyable match to watch.

24:48Catherine Whitaker: I just liked the way they came up against each other stylistically. I would like to see it again.

24:55Matt Roberts: In terms of the second rubber of this tie, Pagula against Bolta, when we previewed it a couple of days ago, we talked about how Bolta had got a win over Jessica Pagula at United Cup last year. And I said, hmm, but that was peak Katie Bolta. And we haven't seen peak Katie Bolta for a while. And in fact, she's been far, far from it for quite a while now. Well, for a set today, we saw that Katie Bolter, like, and more, potentially. It was so good in the first set from Bolter that it just inevitably felt unsustainable. David, it was almost too good. Like, oh, well, you can't keep this up. And she didn't drop off a cliff at all.

25:40Matt Roberts: She stayed competitive, but she dropped off enough and Pagula upped her level enough that the tables turned completely.

25:50David Law: Yeah, it's a bit of a high wire act for Katie Bolter because she's almost having to try to play like Elena Rabakina and she's just not as good as Elena Rabakina. And that's not to diss her. I mean, Rabakina is just an absolutely top draw player when she's at her best. And she does it without needing to extend the very limits of her game, whereas Bolter is having to hit out, particularly on the forehand, but she was also cracking the backhand. But the moment the ball was on her forehand, she was trying to pretty much end rallies or put herself in total charge of them. And if you think of it, that's her game at its limits.

26:27David Law: It's also, in perfect circumstances, indoors, her type of court, Billie Jean King Cup, where she's played, I would say, the best tennis I've seen her play overall. all this was as pretty much as good as it can get i think for for for bolter and she needed time to run out on pagula and pagula just needed to dig in and find a way to not be losing uh before she kind of got to grips with with the game and got her own game working and that's what she managed you know it's scrappy at the start of the second set that could very easily have gone straight sets if she'd have allowed it. But that's totally in keeping with what we've seen.

27:11David Law: And I should say, that's what happened against Rebecca. She just could never get into the match. But here she's playing a player not of that level. So she was able to just hang around, keep it scrappy. And that's what's been happening all the way through these matches throughout the ties, is people have been turning matches around by just sticking in and shows how you can do that. if you can get into a best of three set match there is enough time it's just that sometimes people are cold um i i was impressed with both um i think bolter she can't really have too many regrets there i think she approached it in just the right way she had to swing and connect and she did those things to get a lead but pegula she she gave credit to navarro actually as as as the player that she just watched turn a match around like that and um and she did she virtually did the same thing um yeah good good tie and and i and i think the winners make sense you know the 2-0 makes sense when you look at the respective rankings she um she strikes me as like perfect

28:21Matt Roberts: for a team environment jessica bagula a very i imagine she's a very galvanizing force in that US team. I mean, obviously she's played a lot of doubles in her career. That is a team version of the sport, but she's also, I don't think she's a big ego, is she, even though she's the leader of that team. She's experienced, but, well, she's incredibly experienced. She just seems like somebody that can get along with everybody and create a good vibe, almost a kind of sub-captain to Lindsay Davenport kind of a role. And with a team like the US, whose problem has not been lack of talent, it's been being less than a sum of their parts, not feeling like a cohesive, settled team, I suspect she's helped in kind of fast-tracking that feeling of settlement within this US team.

29:20Catherine Whitaker: Yeah, I think that's a really good way of putting it and describing her qualities as a person, which will contribute to this team in addition to her qualities as a player. And I was also thinking, you know, like kind of a big deal for her to be playing Billie Jean King Cup this week rather than Seoul. You know, like a couple of years ago she played and won Seoul. Her mother was born in Korea. I think it was a big deal for her to go to that event and play it. And she didn't play it last year, having reached the US Open final and there being that quick turnaround. But given she's playing this week, I think it would have been pretty understandable if she wanted to go and play in Seoul.

30:08Catherine Whitaker: I think that tournament has a real connection for her or she has a connection with it. But no, she's at the British Inking Cup. She's put her hand up for this. I think she's basically said she'll play singles and doubles, you know, like if it does go to a deciding doubles match, I'd be surprised if Pagula is not out there, you know, with Townsend. So she's giving absolutely everything. And, yeah, she's just been that sort of constant presence in American tennis over the past five years or so. You know, I feel like a lot of other players have had bigger highs. You know, we've seen Grand Sam champions from the US and they've not been Pagula.

30:50But kind of all of those players have had probably bigger lows than Pagula's had.

30:55Catherine Whitaker: So it kind of feels fitting that Pagula is the one who is there and helping guide the US back to a final. And now, you know, the question is whether she can get them over the line. OK, that's it for part one.

31:12Matt Roberts: We'll answer that question in part two.

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33:23Matt Roberts: Welcome back to part two of today's tennis podcast where we have a final to look ahead to the Billie Jean King Cup finals final. Love it. Love it when the name is catchy. Championship match. Between Italy, the defending champions. So bad.

33:41David Law: Just call it the Billie Jean King Cup. Fine. People.

33:45Matt Roberts: I know. Yeah.

33:46David Law: Why do they have to make it difficult?

33:48Matt Roberts: I'm going to from now on, David. I was just ticking that box. Italy against the USA. Now then. We know it's going to be, unless somebody picks up an injury overnight or something, we know it's going to be Pagula against Paolini in terms of the number one players. Jessica Bagula, David, has a 5-0 head-to-head against Jasmine Paolini so would it be overestimating Paolini to suggest that she might win this match? 5-0? You've got to include the caveat. I have got to include the caveat. I was just going to let it sink in for David and for any listeners. The caveat is that they haven't played since 2023.

34:34Matt Roberts: Okay, that doesn't care.

34:38Matt Roberts: 2023 was back when that was the good point. That was when I was allowed to underestimate her. Right. But it's not nothing.

34:47David Law: And it's all straight sets. It's not nothing. It doesn't make any sense to me game-wise, though. When I think of those two players, that doesn't make any sense to me. Not that I don't think Pagula would win a fair share. To me, they're very evenly matched and maybe Pagula would have a slight advantage. Look, her ranking has been higher overall in recent years. but that is not a ball that I look at and think, oh, Jasmine Paolini can't handle that ball. You know, that's not what I'm looking at when I see them as tennis players. That having been said, I probably would have been a little surprised unless I knew about it, about the Svitolina head-to-head, you know, and Paolini struggles with that one because whilst, yes, I am the absolute arch culprit of underestimating Jasmine Paolini, in terms of when it comes to predicting who's going to win.

35:39David Law: As a player, just watching her, I think her game stands up against most players. So it's a curious one. And I think the way they're both playing right now, I think this could be really, really close. I don't know what you two think. I mean, I don't see either of them. It's not a prediction, is it? Well, who do I think is going to actually win? well I do I think I'm going to go for Paolini I think because I think we're going to get the doubles maybe I just want the doubles so much that I'm making that happen in my head but I don't think this is going to be straightforward I can't see this final being straightforward I think we're going to get that doubles and I don't think Italy will win the other one so I'm going to go with Paolini.

36:29Matt Roberts: The other one again, barring injury, I think we're going to see Emma Navarro, aren't we? She's given absolutely no reason to think that she should or could be dropped for this. She's 1-0 against Elisabetta Cotciareto. She's never played Lucia Bronzetti. Do you think it will be Cotciareto? and do you think Cotillareto has much of a chance here? Do you think we're going to see the doubles, Matt?

37:00Catherine Whitaker: It's a lot of questions. I think it probably will be Cotillareto. I think it would be a big call to change it now. I know that Italy have changed their number two player at past editions of the Billie Jean King Cup finals. They're not averse to doing that, but I don't think they've done it in the final. I think that would be a bit of a move. I must say that I wasn't that impressed with Coggioreto against Kostiuk. It kind of goes to what you were saying, Catherine, about a known, what was it, a known known versus an unknown.

37:47Matt Roberts: That's a Donald Rumsfeld thing, isn't it?

37:49Catherine Whitaker: I think they'll go Coggioreto. but whoever they play, I think they'll lose, to be honest. I think Navarro will win that, whoever she plays. I'm not going to underestimate Jasmine Paolini. You, you, you won't, you simply won't catch me doing that. So I'm going, so we're going to get the doubles. I have to say, I think, I think for Pagula, it will be a bit of a relief not to, like, I know Paolini is a great striker of the ball. I think it will be a bit of a relief not to face someone in the mould of Rebacchino and Boulter as she's played in the last couple of days, who I think she's been a bit rocked by the way they've been able to take the racket out of her hand.

38:34Catherine Whitaker: She was frustrated today, Pagoula. And look, she turned it around impressively. But Paolini's not going to quite do that. It's going to be much more of a battle, really, I think.

38:50Matt Roberts: it must be a not enjoyable feeling to be waiting for your opponent's level to drop, to feel like I need to do something I need to passively wait for something in order to win this match, there's a lot more to it than that, she raised her level, I felt like she got Bolton moving a bit more, once Bolton's level did drop, she was very canny in how she exploited that It's not as simple as that, but equally, I mean, it was as simple as that against Rabakina. It was unless Rabakina's level drops, Pagula doesn't have a chance here. And honestly, in that first set against Bolta, it must have felt quite similar for Pagula, who, given her ranking is so much higher than Bolta's in her pedigree, that's got to be a slightly startling feeling.

39:38Catherine Whitaker: And I think she also needed Bolta's serve to fall off, as it did. I think Bolton's first serve percentage went down into the 30s in that second set, which really allowed Pagula to make a lot more returns. And she'll be able to do that against Paolini. It's not really a tennis thing. I agree with David. Like, I think this version of Paolini, you know, post 2023 Paolini up against Pagula, to me, they would be splitting matches, you know, They would have an even head-to-head. I can't really, having not seen the match-up, come up with an obvious tennis reason why I would favour one over the other.

40:24Catherine Whitaker: I fall back on Billie Jean King Cup vibes, Paulini, the way we've seen her constantly step up. I just think she's got one more in her. And I think she takes it to the doubles.

40:38Matt Roberts: She might need to have two more in her, Matt. True.

40:42David Law: One and a half, one and a quarter.

40:44Catherine Whitaker: Yeah, Iran can do the rest.

40:49Matt Roberts: Anyone want to change their prediction? David, you've got the US. Matt, you've got Italy.

40:54David Law: I think I'm still going to go the US overall because I'm just stubborn. That's half of my problem is I just refuse to... I refuse to accept that I wasn't right at the start because I was so close to being right and I thought, wouldn't it be great if I was right? But I wasn't.

41:14Matt Roberts: I think I'm going to stick with the US because I think they might do it in the singles, but if it goes to the doubles, I would pick Italy. Oh, interesting. So I'm going Italy in the doubles.

41:28Catherine Whitaker: Catherine, you're going US in the singles and David's going US in the doubles.

41:33David Law: I'm going US, right? I mean, I think that they could do it both ways, but I don't feel strongly that they're going to win it that way.

41:50Catherine Whitaker: So you're underestimating Paolini in the singles again?

41:53David Law: I'm going to go in the doubles, but I think straight sets is possible too. I think that's it, right?

41:59Catherine Whitaker: The US have got two routes. I think the US can win it in the singles and they can win it in the doubles.

42:05David Law: I don't see Italy winning it in either one.

42:08Catherine Whitaker: And it's quite interesting.

42:11Matt Roberts: The person we're underestimating here is Elisabetta Cotcioreto. That's for sure. And honestly, who's going to come out and give a Pegula?

42:19David Law: She's going to give a Wimbledon Pegula performance now and just make everybody look like fools.

42:24Matt Roberts: Yeah, she'd way prefer to play Pegula than Navarro. It's quite interesting how the US as a team do negate those strengths of Italy.

42:34Catherine Whitaker: You know, like what gets Italy through is knowing they can rely on Paolini and then knowing they can rely on Paolini in Iran. Well, they're actually up against a team who pretty much can match them in those two matches and are better in the number two singles. So it's I do think the US are favourites here. I do think if you just sort of look at it like they've got more of a chance in more of the matches. so I do think the US are favourites but I'm going to go Italy

43:08David Law: Can I just give a word for the captains as well I mean we've talked a little bit about Davenport and I just get the sense that she could figure out strategy and ways to talk to people to get the best out of them but also Tatiana Garbin I don't know what she's saying but just the way she reacts to things makes me feel that she's totally in tune with what's required at any given moment. Her reaction, at one point she kind of reacted and turned around to the crowd and the support team and sort of went, come on, get into it. That's the point to get into it on because she's just produced a world and you lot need to be up, was the gist of it.

43:51David Law: And I thought, here's somebody who really gets what captaincy's about. There's a way to get the best out of people and there's a way to approach things in a certain way. And I think she's just got it.

44:05Catherine Whitaker: And I think the Italian team really play for her. You know, she's been the captain for a few years now. She had some real health struggles in that time as well. And, you know, I think there's been a real togetherness in that team playing for her and wanting to do it for her. And yeah, like like you, David, I can't understand the Italian, but I've been in a few press conferences with her where she's spoken in English and she has a way with words, even in English, which isn't, you know, she's not that confident speaking English, but she's still able to get across real meaning and emotion in the way she speaks.

44:49Catherine Whitaker: And yeah, I think they're a great unit and she's a big, big part of the Italian success in this competition over the last few years.

45:00Matt Roberts: OK, we will see tomorrow, won't we? We'll be back with a podcast after tomorrow's Billie Jean King Cup final. Our podcast will be at 8pm UK time. We'll be live on YouTube. I expect Billie Jean will make quite a cameo, as she has done in today's show, if you've been watching on YouTube, because she keeps hearing her name. She's like, they're making a podcast about me. So that'll be live tomorrow, 8pm on YouTube. And of course, it will be available as a podcast, as normal, as well. Hello to our mascots, Phoebe, Maisie and Roger. Hello to our top folks and executive producers, Greg, Chris and Jeff.

45:42Matt Roberts: shout outs have been mysteriously removed from the agenda today because Matt has got a football game to get to so we'll let him do that we'll say thank you to the athletic we are part of the athletic podcast network make sure you watch the Billie Jean King cup final tomorrow if you possibly can and do join us for a podcast at the end of it all thanks for listening we'll speak to you then.

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