US Open Day 12 - Anisimova vs. Sabalenka - repeat or revenge?

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1:20Matt Roberts: Hello and welcome to the tennis podcast on what was day 12 of the US Open, but is now somewhere very deep in the twilight zone. It is 3am. We are back at Tennis Podcast Towers, New York, trying desperately to process what we witnessed on the Arthur Ashe Stadium tonight. In short, two mesmerising victories. One for the world number one, Irina Sabalenka, and one for the eighth seed, Amanda Anisimova. the evening's entertainment finishing just shy of one o 'clock in the morning when a roll of thunder echoed around the arthur ash stadium just as amanda anisimova was clinching her victory her dramatic comeback victory over naomi osaka it made the moment feel almost biblical in its heft and And even more so for me once I turned to Matt Roberts and witnessed a face of pure rapture.

2:24Catherine Whitaker: What an intro. I can't believe we're here again. Back to back Grand Slam finals from Amanda Nisimova. What a night. I mean, we talk about women's semifinal night at the US Open, don't we? Being one of the very best tickets in town. and it's actually quite rare that both matches go three sets. Both matches have such quality, such drama. It's a very, very special evening. And yeah, get me to the hair salon.

3:00Matt Roberts: Yeah, it's so special that even the ever magnanimous David Law, whose prediction went down in flames tonight, can appreciate and enjoy it and look back on it, I think, fondly.

3:14David Law: Oh, it was fantastic. It was amazing. And actually, that roll of thunder was really quite comical. And it was all I could do to stifle the laughter inside. Because it was such a surreal situation. You know, multiple match points coming and going for the first time, really seeing obvious nerves for Amanda Aronissonova, who had played, well, we'll come on to it, some of the most explosive tennis I've ever seen. and suddenly on her heels a little bit trying to just get over the line the way the way you have to do it's very rarely easy um but yeah given her journey and your journey how could i possibly be any anything but uh but pleased for you both it's so who who on this earth can deny matt

4:05Matt Roberts: robert's joy and by extension deny us joy because my god do i want to go to that hair salon on saturday evening uh and it's a city that never sleeps so i feel sure we can find a sort of late night i'm not sure what sort of establishment it'll be matt but i feel like we'll be able to

4:22David Law: find somewhere that'll be all the more amusing it's some dodgy place my thoughts exactly we can

4:28Matt Roberts: We'll get tattoos while we're there.

4:31David Law: Oh, there's an idea.

4:33Matt Roberts: Who knows what could happen?

4:35David Law: That's what I was going to do if I was like, I wouldn't. Not anymore.

4:38Matt Roberts: There was some suggestion of head shaving, David, sort of Algoraz-style head shaving.

4:42Catherine Whitaker: I wanted David to dress up as a LeBouBou.

4:45David Law: Right, okay.

4:46Matt Roberts: That would have been good. I could have done all three. In celebration of learning what a LeBouBou is.

4:51David Law: Well, sadly it won't happen now.

4:53Matt Roberts: Every cloud, David. Let's get into the match. The most surreal of matches in so many ways. 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 for Anisimova over Naomi Osaka. Let's be honest, lots of this felt a little bit strange, kind of always enthralling. You couldn't take your eyes off it, but it was bitty for long periods, particularly those that were the first set and a half, really. It felt bitty. It felt a little bit odd. I felt like the, I mean, first of all, it started late because the first match was a thriller, went three sets. Then there was a ceremony. And look, it was a Venus Williams related ceremony. So I didn't hate it quite as much as I usually hate them.

5:43Matt Roberts: But there just wasn't space for it in the schedule. Like lovely ceremony for Venus Williams. It felt a lot like a retirement ceremony. They sort of ran a retirement VT for her when she's not retiring. but like there wasn't space for it there there was not space if you want to do that and I support them doing it you know make space in the schedule start do advertise the ceremony at 6 30 matches to start at seven lovely ceremony for Venus Williams at 6 30 lots of people would have shown up for that anyway the match started late the crowd thinned out after the first match a lot of people would have felt like we've had our evenings entertainment a storm is forecast suddenly they're rolling out a red carpet I'm out of here you know we've got work to go to tomorrow so the crowd thinned out a little bit and it was also I felt crowd wise a little bit strange because they weren't quite sure who to cheer for I felt like Osaka had the edge tonight but they didn't want to go too hard for Osaka because that was cheering against the American Like, it just felt a little bit odd for a long time, this match, I thought.

6:56Catherine Whitaker: Yes, and from an Anissimova perspective, she started really poorly. You know, she won the first two points, but then she lost 11 points in a row and went down a break. And really looked sluggish, I thought. You know, wasn't moving with the same explosive nature that she was against Svantec. and frankly she just didn't have her range on her shots. She was hitting long a lot and very quickly I felt like the sort of pattern, the battleground for this match developed which was that Anissimova had the far greater potency of strike and greater penetration through the court. I was really struck by how much more she had than Osaka.

7:43Catherine Whitaker: You know, we talked yesterday about these two players being players that can hurt you off both wings and some of the best ball strikers from the back of the court in the world, which they absolutely are. But it was notable to me, frankly, the quality of Anissimova's strike was so much cleaner and purer than Asalka's tonight. And she was able to knock her back and get on top in rallies. However, she didn't have her range, as I said. So what ended up happening was an awful lot of Anissimova misses and unforced errors in the first half of this match. And that was coupled with Osaka doing some of the things that have been really notable about her run here.

8:25Catherine Whitaker: In particular, I thought her movement was absolutely outstanding. Once again, getting behind the ball, defending in rallies. And I couldn't quite tell whether Osaka was not hitting through the ball because of nerves, because of the fact that she couldn't, because Anissimova's ball was so big, or as a tactic to let Anissimova miss a little bit, you know, like be contained yourself and let Anissimova miss. I never really figured that out for the match, to be honest. I'm still not entirely sure I have a clear picture of what happened there. But yes, there was just this stress, this tension to Anissimova in this match, which she's spoken about in her press conference.

9:12Catherine Whitaker: We haven't been to that press conference. We decided we needed to get the media bus.

9:18Matt Roberts: We decided we needed to be not stranded at Flushing Meadows all night.

9:22Catherine Whitaker: Well, exactly.

9:23David Law: Hoping for an Uber that might never come.

9:25Catherine Whitaker: Yeah, so we got the bus, we've read the transcripts, and she is talking about stress that she felt and feeling like the match was going to slip away from her for a lot of this because she didn't quite have her game, really, because of nerves and stress. And you could feel that. You could see it on her face. You could feel it in her shots. But she kept digging deep. She kept fighting. And as the match went on, end of that second set and the third set in particular, I felt like she freed up and she started hitting just the most incredible shots and this and over. She started moving better and we saw the absolute best of her.

10:05Catherine Whitaker: But she had to find it tonight. It wasn't there from the start. And that's kind of what made it so, so fascinating.

10:15Matt Roberts: On the Osaka of it all, what Matt's touched upon there, the resistance to being aggressive. There were moments where she went for it and Thomas Witkarowski was encouraging that at times. David, you watched a lot of this on the screen where you had access to what the coaches were saying, which is really useful. But we went to a press conference. We watched the whole match. I'm still at a bit of a loss why she looked quite so contrasting to Anisimova in terms of approach and in terms of power and ball strike out there. It did really surprise me how defensive a player she ended up looking.

10:59David Law: Yeah, I wasn't entirely sure in the moment what the tactics were and I'm still not entirely sure. I did find it very interesting when it was put to her that she and Anissima are quite similar and what is it like to play somebody who's an aggressive baseline like yourself. And she didn't agree with that assessment. She said we're total opposites. I actually am often watching my opponent and trying to block the ball back. And I think I see that. It's that get behind the ball and redirect it, especially when you've got that sort of power coming at you. but I think what I was seeing in the first set is somebody who was trying to get a high percentage of first serves in hit a lot of unreturnables which she did make very few unforced errors I think she got her first 11 returns of the match in that off the first serve that was a stat that came up whereas Anisimova got three out of the first nine in and that's why you ended up with that break in the first set.

11:55David Law: And I think she was trying to play a clean match with very few unforced errors and probably move Anissimova, which is an obvious tactic for somebody whose strength is not movement. And I think that she thought that that would get the job done. And let's be honest, on the scoreboard, it very nearly did. She won the first set. She came very close in the second set. And yet I still didn't think we were seeing anything like the best of her. Towards the end of the second set, we were we were messaging back and forth and saying actually not enjoying this very much this is not the classic that we thought it'd be it's close on the scoreboard it sounds like a classic seven six six seven it didn't feel like one watching it it was it was nerve-ridden it was angst-ridden and whilst the shot making of Anissa Mova was absolutely breathtaking I thought for the first set and a half it was quite panicky and desperate almost as though she was just trying to hit winners that are not sustainable that's what I was watching I was watching something thinking I think Osaka's going to win this in straight sets because this isn't sustainable and I think

13:02Matt Roberts: she was doing that because the movement wasn't there for that period of the match the way it had been yesterday against Fiontech she was pulling the trigger Osaka's talked about that hasn't she about how with her improved fitness she's making better decisions on the court well I felt probably like Anisimova was pulling the trigger earlier than was ideal because she knew she was a step slower than she was yesterday because of that stress and there was also this

13:29Catherine Whitaker: pattern that kept emerging for Anisimova where she would break and then just get broken straight back it happened for the first time she managed to break serve like so she couldn't she couldn't keep it up you know if she did find a nice a nice pattern it just disappeared as quickly as it came and that was a lot of credit to Osaka digging in and you could tell Osaka making such a big effort as well with the body language again it was a it was a frustrating match for both players you know it wasn't it wasn't one where it was easy to give the positive body language and then this Mova I think found it particularly difficult at times but Osaka was really trying but just neither of them could just quite get in their flow and I think that that stat of Anissimova getting broken back so often kind of told a really big story there but once we got to the end of the second set

14:19David Law: it suddenly became the match that I think we hoped for it became dramatic it became epic and then suddenly you had a player just take it away in Anissimova the the shot she hit in that tie break i'd have to watch them back to believe what i was seeing and there were some some absolutely incredible stats coming through from the the tv broadcast where we had mary carillo chanda rubin and andrea petkovic and they'd got stats on the anisimova backhand which obviously we we constantly talk about but they've got statistical evidence to back this up that her average backhand speed for the tournament was 77 miles per hour and that that is the fastest in the tournament men or women and that the next one is Sinner at 76 and below that is Alcaraz at 73 and Sabalenka's at 71 so she's hitting an average speed of 77 miles per hour Get that on a t-shirt Matt It's unreal It's extraordinary and in this match itself she was she was hitting the height she was at average 76 miles per hour to Osaka 61 you know this is the differential and I did feel and I think we saw Osaka try to correct this as it went on she didn't go for it enough she didn't go I know it seems like a massive power differential and I think there is a power differential to some degree because I don't I don't think any well you see the stats there nobody hits the ball as hard as this woman is hitting the ball but I don't think Osaka was meeting fire with fire I think her tactic might have been a little different but mainly I think she was shocked even though we watched back the highlights of 2022 Australian Open and Matt does that every day David it was a great watch we just joined in this time we joined

16:12Catherine Whitaker: it was as though I'd edited the highlights yeah because it's mostly just anissimo overhitting

16:17David Law: winners but Osaka played well on that mate and Osaka had talked then about how fast the ball is coming through at you. I think three years on, she was shocked again. I think even though she knew that, it was still a shock to the system. And a very good point made by Andrea Petkovic in the commentary early on is that she just hasn't played any player remotely like that in this tournament. She's played Daria Kasikina, you know, a nice, slow-balling, spinny player. She's played Karolina Mukova, who's all style. she just hasn't played that type of player Koko Goff is not a power hitter like Anisimova or Sabalenka or Rabakina so the ball I think just took her by surprise and she was getting forced back and becoming a little defensive and yet she still nearly won and I think a lot of that is just how nerve-wracking it all was I wrote down towards the end of the second set because I really didn't think it was ending in two Anissimova is kind of the better player stroke-wise but Osaka's head and movement are going to win this and the fact that Anissimova stopped that happening is a testament to just how incredible a shot making was 50 winners from that racket tonight

17:36Matt Roberts: and there was so much that she was dealing with that just even a few weeks ago I feel like would have derailed Anisimova or would have risked derailing Anisimova. And she's kind of confirmed this in the press conference by talking about how different a player she feels even since Wimbledon. She says, I feel like the last few weeks it's been a different feeling. I feel like when I was at Wimbledon, every single match was kind of a surprise to me. I was shocked with every match that I won. But here, I feel like I believe in myself. And I feel like that manifests in, And well, just, I mean, the very fact that she won this match, we didn't believe, did we?

18:17Matt Roberts: Not even Matt, but we all thought, even when I think it was on serve, sort of two thirds of the way through the second set, we all thought it just felt like it was ending in two. And somehow she turned that ship around and the crowd were cheering against her. She did not have the crowd tonight. An American in a semi-final of the US Open. And OK, it's Naomi Osaka. She's an exception. It's not personal, etc. But, you know, we've seen how a crowd can get to a player, you know, in Naomi Osaka in Montreal. Like, that could very easily get to somebody. The speed with which Naomi Osaka was playing. Alisa Mova was being rushed getting into the return position.

19:05Matt Roberts: and there were actually quite a few times when she held up Osaka inadvertently just because Osaka was wanting to play so quickly. It was kind of remarkable. Matt kept on remarking on it in the first set and we couldn't quite tell whether we were just sort of more dialed into it tonight or whether she was deliberately maybe deploying that as a tactic. And then there was a very bizarre moment where she received a time violation.

19:35Catherine Whitaker: hmm, like the shot clock was barely starting for most of her points. You know, she was so quick. And to me, it did feel like some kind of tactic to just keep the pressure on, not giving her some over breaks, you know, bits of recovery. But then out of the blue, she suddenly ran the clock down, Asaka, and got a time violation. It really did surprise me. And, yeah, I find it pretty extraordinary that Anissa Mova has gone from the level she had at the start of the match to the level she had at the end. Like, that was kind of the worst version of herself right at the start. You know, sluggish, as I said.

20:25Catherine Whitaker: Not really in control of the ball. And by the end, I know there were nerves in that final game. and she double-faulted on a crucial point at the end and it did seem like maybe Osaka was going to get it back. But through most of that third set, she's just had total control of the ball and what she was doing while also hitting the living daylights out of it. And Osaka said that it was kind of amusing at times. Like, how is someone able to strike the ball like that? And I just don't think Anissa Mova of certainly a year ago, even back in the previous part of her career where she was reaching Grand Slam semifinal.

21:09Catherine Whitaker: And I just don't think she was able to turn matches like that. You know, you kind of knew what you were going to get in Amanda Anissa Mova quickly. You know, like you knew you were going to get in one of her matches, whether it was going to be, oh, she's got it today. She's feeling it or she doesn't really have it today. but that resilience that she's built up this year through so many matches and now she's got the belief of beating Sabalenka in a Grand Sam semifinal, overcoming the double bagel demons against Fionte, it has created this player who's capable of doing what she did today. And David, I know you were more across the exchanges that she was having with her team, but I liked the sound of those as well when they were telling her, stop complaining, stop getting so down on yourself.

21:57Catherine Whitaker: Like Osaka's played a good return game there. Like you've got to accept that and lock back in. That dynamic seems like it's working as well with the team. And yeah, it's all come together. And here we are.

22:13Matt Roberts: Sounds like they're not afraid of her. They're not afraid to tell her the truth.

22:16David Law: No, I think that's right. That actually, Anissimova reminded me a lot more of Samalenka tonight both in terms of the way she went about playing because normally I think of her as a more reactive player because she's got such smooth strokes she doesn't need to muscle the ball and go after you in quite the same way she can almost almost just retaliate and destroy you um this time she was trying to trying to take the racket out of the hand of of Osaka the way that Sabalenka does but then she was also getting really wound up the way that Sabalenka does when it doesn't go in or when the scoreboard goes against her and and she was looking she was looking for a fight really with a with a support team I mean it's venting isn't it you understand it they understand it but they weren't having it and they just wanted her mind to Rick his her coach just just said stop trying to pick a fight with me you know focus on the next point stop complaining let's go get on with it you know it's kind of she's played a good game it's fine um and and look that's exactly what happened and and she went out and did the job and and i dare say she loves them to bits because they they're telling her what she needs needs to hear properly even if it's not very nice in the moment for for for the best reasons and uh yeah i i i just can't think of too many players that have have gone for it quite that much over such a long period of time and kept on pulling it off.

23:47David Law: It was Wawrinka-like, if you think about it, the way he did it against Djokovic in that French Open final. It was like Madison Keyes-like, the way she just wrestled matches out of... It was Keyes, Australian Open-like. And it's that sort of firepower we're talking about. What a night. Yeah.

24:10Matt Roberts: I just can't believe that losing a Grandstand final, six love, six love, is probably going to end up being the making of her. You know, there's a lot more to it than that, but I really do think that we're seeing a woman that has turned that into a positive. Well, there are another... Quickly.

24:36David Law: More parallels with Keys there, aren't there, really? Absolutely.

24:39Matt Roberts: These are well-adjusted people with perspective on themselves and the sport. And, yeah, I'm in awe of her. It's the most incredible story. It continues to be.

24:59David Law: It's very, very emotional. A bit worried about the turnaround, personally, just because it's such a lot, isn't it?

25:06Catherine Whitaker: yeah and she spoke at Wimbledon didn't she I know that she's sort of in the weeks that have passed admitted to nerves a lot more in in the final there at Wimbledon being the big factor but at the time she spoke a lot about exhaustion that's the bit I'm worried about and that's the bit I'm worried about you know this is two matches in a row that have just taken a lot out of her I think I think maybe some of the reason for the slow start today was all the emotions of yesterday and overcoming Svante. Well, OK, she's got the day off, but it's going to be an incredibly late finish. She's going to be thrown out of her rhythm.

25:46Catherine Whitaker: And she had to dig, in her own words, so deep tonight. Like, somehow, some way, she's going to have to be able to find that again, because Sabalenka was bloody good today, bloody impressive. And she's as determined to end this season with a major title, you know, like it's going to take all that Anissimova's got. And if she's diminished in any way, I think it's going to be very, very difficult. So that element is a big one, looking ahead to the final, I think.

26:22Matt Roberts: But then the fact that she's been through it before so recently helps massively. Yeah, I think so. I mean, just the way she was talking in press. You know, she said, I've deleted everything from my phone. I've quietened all of the messages. I'm locking in. I know it's a tight turnaround. I'm gonna be in it this time I'm gonna be in it so we'll see we will see we need to talk about Sabalenka we will do that in part two

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29:16Matt Roberts: Welcome back to part two of the Tennis Podcast, where it's now after three o 'clock in the morning. How are we doing? Great.

29:25Catherine Whitaker: Pumped. Great and pumped. Me too.

29:31Matt Roberts: Do we think Irina Sabalenka is asleep?

29:34David Law: I hope so.

29:37Matt Roberts: She beat Jessica Pagula in a thriller. 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, two hours and five minutes. This one moves along at a clip as well. It really was a scintillating match. The first match of the night, of course. And it is Arena Sabalenka that reaches a third consecutive US Open final and a sixth consecutive hardcourt major final.

30:06David Law: Yeah, I enjoyed this match a lot more personally. And I think it was a higher quality all the way through. Much cleaner match and a lot fewer errors. Less anxiety on both sides of the net, I thought. and actually just a really interesting kind of narrative behind it all because obviously they'd played in the final a year ago and Pegula had led in the sets and it was really close but there were two sets, 7-5, 7-5. This time she goes 4-2 down and it really feels as though, wow, Savalinka's power is just too much. And then she just threw in a terrible game. Savalinka, awful, loads of errors, gets broken back.

30:51David Law: Pagula wins four games in a row to win that set 6-4. And it was just really interesting to watch her go ahead in this match and to think that, wow, she could be about to take out the world number one. And I wonder whether Sabalenka, having had a walkover in the previous round, maybe he's come in a bit undercooked here into this match, whereas Pagula's just timing the ball beautifully. and then in both sets two and three Pegula just went an immediate breakdown and and that was her problem she just she was playing really well Sabalenka was a little um in and out in terms of the shots but when she really needed to step on it she just she just got what she needed

31:37Matt Roberts: yeah I mean I feel like this match came down to one loose Pegula service game at the start of the third set I don't think she lost a point on serve after that she lost four points in that game to lose serve didn't lose a point on serve for the rest of the set whereas she was constantly putting pressure on the arena Sabalenka serve I know that's reductive to say that it came down to that one game and tennis just isn't as binary as that but this felt kind of as close to isolating it down to one game as you possibly can really.

32:13David Law: Charlie Eccleshire from The Athletic said that Sam Balenka's performance in that third set was like watching vintage Pete Sampras because he would sort of just not give away games but he wasn't winning points on loads of return games but he'd get one and then he'd serve it out.

32:29Matt Roberts: Have you got a sort of human Google alert set up for when somebody you know references Pete Sampras? Absolutely, I'm there in a second.

32:37Catherine Whitaker: It's very often Charlie Eccleshire.

32:40David Law: we bond over pizza

32:41Catherine Whitaker: well I think I think Pagula absolutely perfectly summed this up by posting a picture of herself drinking what I think is a honey juice with the caption when you lost four points on serve in the third but you lost the match

32:56Matt Roberts: right you know come on we know a honey juice when we see one yeah that's a honey juice

33:02Catherine Whitaker: I see the melon balls

33:03Matt Roberts: hand carved those have you seen the video I've not Every single melon ball is hand-carved. That's why they cost$24. Get a machine to do it. Reduce the price.

33:14David Law: She also came into the press currents with a lollipop, which I think was, again, something to just try to cheer herself up.

33:25Catherine Whitaker: So, look, I thought Pagula did a brilliant job in that first set of passing. I mean, Sabalenka found herself at the net quite a lot, and Pagula was whipping passing shots past her. She also did a brilliant job of just redirecting the Sabalenka pace and absorbing it. She was hitting the ball sweetly, Pagula, really high quality. Sabalenka, I thought, did a great job at the start of the second set, just changing it up a little bit, a bit of variety, threw in some drop shots, helped her get that early break and kept her emotions in check, Sabalenka. You know, we've seen her play a lot of big matches this year where stress has overtaken her and her game has suddenly disappeared.

34:07Catherine Whitaker: I thought she was teetering at times tonight. It was on the edge, but she stepped up when she needed it, and none more so than in that third set, because having got the break right at the start, what then happened was every single Sabalenka service game was just a mini battle within the overall battle. It was absolutely astonishing. At 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, and eventually then at 5-4, Pagula was applying so much pressure. She was just in every single return game, putting returns back on the baseline and forcing Sabalenka to come up with her best stuff, and she did. She played world number one tennis when she was down.

34:54Catherine Whitaker: Sabalenka, you know, whether it be with a huge backhand or a huge serve or whatever it was, She just stepped up. And I'm not sure Pagula did a lot wrong on those break points and on those mini chances and all those service games. Sabalenka just steadied herself and delivered in a way that a lot of times this year we've seen her not do that in the very biggest matches. But it was a reminder of when the full force of her tennis is on display, she's the best in the world. You know, she can overwhelm you with power. She's a brilliant mover. And when she brings it all together, it's kind of like, what can the opponent do?

35:39Catherine Whitaker: And that was my read on that final set because I thought Pagula was brilliant, other than just that loose service game at the start. But she did everything she possibly could to get back into it. And Sabalenka just would not allow it. It was so compelling, so compelling this match.

35:59Matt Roberts: just on the movement of Sabalenka we watched actually midway through the Anisimova match Matt wanted to provide evidence of the best forehand slice Anisimova had ever hit dropped a little YouTube link in the chat

36:15David Law: he did that just because I dared say that I'd seen the best forehand slice she's ever hit and within half a second he got evidence of why that wasn't the case

36:26Matt Roberts: not creepy at all to have that at your fingertips Matt Don't worry.

36:29David Law: So you didn't even got the timestamp.

36:31Matt Roberts: So there we were sitting in the media seats and I was watching a highlights package of Asimov against Sabalenka from the... 2019. 2019 Australian Open. And obviously I was watching out for this incredible forehand slice, which was indeed incredible. It just sort of lofted and dipped onto the sideline for a winner. but I was absolutely dumbstruck by how different as an athlete and a mover Sabalenka looked compared to then just the way she stalks around a tennis court now and looks so nimble is just worlds away from what she used to be. I know we're always saying it but she's just so much more than a power hitter and just on power hitting it's almost become a bit of a cliche in tennis you know Pugula's deceptive power she's more powerful than than you think she is you hear commentators say that a lot and they're absolutely right she is more powerful than people give her credit for generally and I thought this was as good as good a piece of evidence for that as you'll ever see because you have the barometer of power you have the direct comparison to Irina Sabalenka and okay she was kind of absorbing the Sabalenka power too but she was pretty much matching her and I think a lot of it with Sabalenka is the way she produces her power just sort of blinds people a to the other dimensions of her game but also to to how she doesn't totally sort of stand apart in in in women's tennis um and that really struck me tonight watching from the from from where we were watching that that yeah pequila was pequila was kind of matching her stroke for stroke she was using her against her

38:30David Law: and timing it back her timing was immense wasn't it refusal to be pushed back from the

38:35Matt Roberts: from the baseline not many can can do that can really hold their ground on on on the baseline that takes power and core strength but also dexterity to make the micro adjustments she's she's a lot more than than people give her credit for i think pagula and and that's one of the

38:57Catherine Whitaker: fascinating parts of the final matchup that we've got because anissa mova can do that as well to Sabalenka when David talks about Anissa Mova not necessarily going out there and completely sort of dominating players with her power but sort of using it back on them and turning it back on them that's what I think she does so well against Sabalenka she uses Sabalenka's pace and injects her own into it and Sabalenka is rocked by that and it's like an

39:28David Law: experiment to see what you can blow up right i mean i i am fascinated by her tactical approach in the final in that regard does she go out and try to do what she did tonight and just seek and destroy or does she settle back into that belief that she can time it and look we've been talking

39:49Catherine Whitaker: a lot about the sambalenka return you know maybe not quite being at its peak at the moment and that That is potentially something that you look at in that third set that she played tonight against Pagula. I know she got the break at the start, and I know in that sense it kind of was classic Pete Sampras, get the break and then just hold. But she got nowhere near the Pagula serve for the rest of the set. She lost 16 points in a row on return, Sabalenka. And I don't think that she was holding easily enough or confidently enough to just be tanking those return games.

40:25David Law: Oh no, she was desperately trying to win those points and just not managing it.

40:29Catherine Whitaker: Right, and that I think is a bit of a worry for Sabalenka going into the final. Because Anissimova, everyone is saying it, pretty much as dangerous a returner as you can possibly get. She is going to have looks at the Sabalenka serve. She's going to be hurting it with her own return. So Sabalenka needs to be getting into the Anissimova service games herself. and there will be times probably when Anisimova is not serving her best and Sabalenka will be able to get into them but if Anisimova can get in the kind of serving rhythm that Pagula was in like Sabalenka is going to have to step up on her return game I know she was generally brilliant tonight and I thought she made a bit of a statement because she was really impressive but that is an area where I think Anisimova going into this final will be feeling like she might be able to exploit.

41:26Matt Roberts: She has to serve versus Abelenka, doesn't she? I mean, Anna Samova, she's just crushing second serves.

41:33Catherine Whitaker: Yeah, off both wings.

41:35Matt Roberts: There's nowhere to go.

41:36Catherine Whitaker: No, most people's stock second serve is into the backhand. You can't do that, so they mix it up. But then she's able to just shuffle around it and hit a big forehand as well. It's a problem. It's a big problem.

41:52Matt Roberts: It's a great final, isn't it? I know we were in a situation where we'd be saying that regardless of what was set up tonight. We were in a good position. There were no bad scenarios. It's all great. Whoever wins, it'll be a great story, a great champion. But I really am excited.

42:11David Law: Well, the good news is typically their matches are really good. Even the one-sided ones are really fascinating because you've got two really pure ball strikers and they just match up well. I think it's a great sight. It's a little Sinner and Alcaraz-like, seeing these two incredibly imposing figures with such enormous power colliding. It's like a Marvel final. Do you think it's going to happen, Matt? I do.

42:45Catherine Whitaker: I mean, I thought it was at Wimwood as well.

42:49Matt Roberts: You might have been in the early stages of a fever at that point. Thank you. We can introduce that onto the record.

42:57David Law: What's your excuse this time?

43:00Matt Roberts: Well, it's 3.30 in the morning.

43:02Catherine Whitaker: Look, I think the thing we just talked about, the recovery from this tonight, particularly for Anissimova, is going to be a lot. But I don't know, there is kind of more of a Madison Keyes feeling about this, right? You know, she's just come through two incredibly tough matches. We were saying that about Keyes. Can she do it again in the final? And Keyes had had previous experience. And Nisimov has now got previous experience. And I think that's all helpful. I think Nisimov's best tennis wins it.

43:42David Law: I don't think Sabalenka can do to Anissa Mova what Shviontek did on a grass court and with her movement and with the angles and spin. It's a more straight up and down game.

43:54Matt Roberts: I also don't think Anissa Mova is going to be paralysed the way she was at Wimbledon. Look, I'm not saying she's going to come out not feeling any nerves and tension and being free as a bird, but it's going to be a different player.

44:07Catherine Whitaker: And also, look, maybe Sabalenka comes out and plays an extraordinary match, but Sabalenka's not got the finals record that Sviontek has. You know, like Sabalenka gives you games. She throws in a bad game or just lets you get a little bit of momentum, lets you settle, I think, in a way that Sviontek just absolutely did not with her absolutely ruthless, brilliant performance in all of her Grand Slam finals, but particularly that one, of course. So just think the match-up is helpful.

44:41Matt Roberts: One more important question before we move on to look ahead to tomorrow. And there'll be more time to preview the women's final in tomorrow's show. But will Bruce come?

44:54Catherine Whitaker: We're doing our best. I don't quite know what that is. What is our best? We're sending texts to people with more influence. We're manifesting. We're manifesting.

45:04Matt Roberts: Sort of spiritually and practically.

45:06Catherine Whitaker: We're hoping.

45:07Matt Roberts: I'm not sure our... I think we're even more than three degrees of separation from Bruce. Oh, we're so far away. We're so far away. He has been to the US Open. If anybody out there has any strings to pull...

45:20Catherine Whitaker: It's the only way Saturday can get better.

45:22David Law: They come from the same place. This is why it should happen. Freehold, New Jersey.

45:26Matt Roberts: They come from Freehold, New Jersey.

45:27Catherine Whitaker: OK, right. Gotcha.

45:29Matt Roberts: Yeah.

45:30Catherine Whitaker: That's why he needs to be there.

45:33Matt Roberts: It would be the coolest. Oh, it would be awesome.

45:38Catherine Whitaker: I mean, it's not going to happen, but it would be incredible.

45:42Matt Roberts: If we can't get Bruce there, will Jeremy Allen White come again?

45:47Catherine Whitaker: Probably. He seems to have a season ticket. Fake Bruce.

45:50Matt Roberts: Yeah, he's been four days in a row. He cannot get enough. Look, maybe they could come together. They've got a film to promote. Bruce has got an album to promote. This is win-win. it is

46:04David Law: Taylor Swift managed it last year

46:05Matt Roberts: exactly please happen she had to watch Taylor Fritz Bruce could watch Amanda Rona Samova Freehold New Jersey she didn't even know I was five years ago you could play Jersey Girl oh okay everybody collectively manifest that's it for part two we'll be back in part three to look ahead to tomorrow's men's semi-finals AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into. That's why it's no surprise that more than 85 % of the Fortune 500 use the ServiceNow AI platform. While other platforms duct tape tools together, ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data, workflows, and AI, connecting every corner of your business.

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47:41Matt Roberts: Welcome back to part three of tonight's tennis podcast. Had the men's doubles semifinals today as well. The men's doubles final will be between Marcel Grenoilles and Horatio Zabias. They beat the unseeded American pairing and did the run of Robert Cash and JJ Jay Tracy and Grenoza Baez will take on Joe Salisbury and Neil Skubsky. They beat Yuki Bambury and Michael Venus. So that men's doubles final will be Saturday. The women's doubles final is tomorrow ahead of the two men's singles semifinals. So the women's doubles final starts at midday on Ash. It is Katarina Siniarkova and Taylor Townsend.

48:26Matt Roberts: the top seeds taking on the third seed Gabby Dabrowski, Matt's favourite doubles player against Gabby Dabrowski and partner Erin Routcliffe, then not before 3pm it is Novak Djokovic against Carlos Alcaraz what's going to happen?

48:48David Law: Do you know we watched some more highlights earlier today or I did anyway, repeatedly of the Australian Open match that they played, what is it now, it's eight months ago. And I was astonished at the level of play that Novak Djokovic found that night to mount his comeback. You know, it's very easy to forget just how good he was and how difficult Alcaraz found it to hit through him. And he was turning the tables on him. So it really did give me pause for thought. And the fact that it's a 5-3 head-to-head record for Djokovic and he's won the last two, I think. Certainly the Olympics and the Australian Open.

49:32David Law: I think it's a big mental challenge, this, for Alcaraz to not worry about any of that and bring out what he's been doing for the last kind of 10 days onto the court. But I think he will. And I think you'll win in four.

49:47Matt Roberts: Matt?

49:50Catherine Whitaker: Yes, I feel the same as David, really. I think Djokovic can hurt Alcaraz. He can spook Alcaraz a little bit. And I think there will be real moments of stress here for Alcaraz. But ultimately, I think he'll come through. I think the tennis he's been playing, the way he's been serving, and just honestly, his general physicality over Djokovic right now, I think the route to victory for Novak Djokovic just feels like it's going to be something like in Australia. If that doesn't happen again, I don't really see how Djokovic wins. I don't think he can outplay Alcaraz in three. I don't think he can beat him over five.

50:44Catherine Whitaker: Maybe he could get him in four if Alcaraz loses his head a little bit or something like that. but I think Alcarez has got more paths to victory here. I really don't want to make it sound like the US election, which I realised I just did a little bit. But that's my feeling. I think Alcarez finally is going to get a win over Djokovic on a hard court. I think this could look,

51:14Matt Roberts: It could feel a little bit like Sinner's victory over Djokovic in the French Open semi-final. Three competitive sets. Djokovic playing really well, but ultimately just being overwhelmed. And Alcaraz being dialed in throughout and being a better player when he is than Djokovic.

51:41David Law: Sinner made it feel like actually the game has suddenly moved on a bit in those matches that he played at the French in Wimbledon. Particularly because Djokovic actually played well in that French Open match. But we haven't really seen Alcaraz do that to him apart from in that Wimbledon final. And I always feel like there's a little bit of an asterisk because Djokovic had just had knee surgery. So he kind of needs one of these. And really, I feel like the level now, the way he and Sinner have separated themselves, it should be there. And given what we've seen so far, I believe it is.

52:20Matt Roberts: If he can't do it now against Djokovic, you know, months older than he was the last time they played on a hard court. He's 38 now. And with Alcaraz, as I say, you know, I think he's been rehearsing for this match all tournament. is dialed in and playing as well as he's ever been, certainly on a hard court. If he can't do it now, then when?

52:47David Law: Yeah, that's fair.

52:49Matt Roberts: Night session, 7pm, Yannick Sinner against Felix Auger-Aliassime. Do you think if you polled the Arthur Ashe Stadium tonight, 24 ,000 people, anybody would have predicted a Felix Auger-Aliassime win? can anybody provide a modicum of hope for Paul Felix?

53:10Catherine Whitaker: No paths to victory. I'd be astonished.

53:17David Law: I think he's got more chance than Mazzetti had, but Mazzetti was so overwhelmed last night that having a better chance than him doesn't sound like the greatest compliment in the world. Listen, I think Felix has had a brilliant tournament. I still have just in the back of my mind what he did to him once before, but it's so long ago now that I can't really see it. I mean, at least he's got weapons. He has got a big forehand. He has got a good serve. I do wonder what would happen if he could keep it close in order to grow into the match, but I suspect it's more likely that he'll just go and break down very early on, and then it becomes really tough to get into the match at all.

54:00Matt Roberts: Is the single most likely scenario that it's a blowout, like a real blowout, like not competitive?

54:11Catherine Whitaker: Yes, I think there might be a competitive set. I could see like 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 or something like that.

54:22David Law: Maybe a couple of competitive sets. I fear the first one might be one-sided because suddenly Felix is just faced with Grand Slam Yannick Sinner, which is a formidable, frightening prospect.

54:38Catherine Whitaker: I just don't think there's anything that Orgelia Seem does better than Yannick Sinner. I would not trade a single Orgelia Seem trait for a Sinner one.

54:50David Law: There was quite a good moment in the Felix Loggia-Liassene press conference a couple of days ago, which I was in, when he was asked to explain what's different with Sinner now from when he faced him those years ago when he beat him. And he just went through this shopping list of things that he's approved. Basically everything he's changed for the better. And at fair play to Felix, he was smiling by the end of it as well. We were all giggling because it was such a long list. but it's it's he's well aware of how good this guy is yeah like if he has a phenomenal serving

55:27Catherine Whitaker: day or shall you see him and he can keep sets close as you said you know we've still got this i'm not even sure if it's a thing anymore but you know the center not winning long matches thing is still there but like how do you get it to the three hour 50 mark like i would still be backing sinner if we got to that point but i'd be astonished if we even got there but that's a sunny outcrasse gets him right like that's a tiny tiny thing that you might be able to latch on to i just think sinner is going to overwhelm him and look orgele seems playing a lot better than he was a few weeks ago but he lost six love then he won two games and he lost six love again to him the other week in cincinnati it was as one side of the match as you can get and i just think sinner targets that backhand the ball speed that he's got he's this is this is sounding really depressing for us he's had a brilliant tournament he would have absolutely signed for this every single time but I I think this is this is one way traffic the end of the road well continuing the

56:43Matt Roberts: theme of today's podcast go with god Felix uh folks that is it for today or tomorrow or this morning whatever this is whatever time of day you call this I call it 20 to 4 yeah wild times here in New York. But fun times. Definitely fun times. Hello to Phoebe, my mascot. Hello to Maisie, David's mascot. Hello to Roger, Matt's mascot. There was an extraordinary moment when we arrived in the lobby about an hour ago. The universe sent me a dog. One just miraculously appeared with its owner in the lobby and like it had been possessed.

57:33Catherine Whitaker: broke free of the owner

57:34Matt Roberts: it sensed my presence went hurtling towards Catherine it was remarkable

57:40David Law: it was it was like Carlos Alcraz running into the arms of one Carlos Ferreira

57:46Matt Roberts: but I didn't even give this little dog any encouragement it just looked at me and it knew

57:51Catherine Whitaker: it was special

57:52Matt Roberts: it was a real meeting of minds so sorry sorry Billy Jean and Phoebe for cheating on you but it was I needed it it was lovely Hello to our top folks and executive producers, Greg, Chris and Jeff. And particular hello to Chris. Because Chris brought us snacks when we most needed them. He just appeared. He appeared. Like an angel. Yeah, truly. Continuing the theme again. Truly like a snack angel. Yeah. Sort of worn all in the deciding set.

58:24Catherine Whitaker: Yeah.

58:25Matt Roberts: Of the second match. It was late. 12.30 in the morning. We were stressed.

58:29Catherine Whitaker: we needed snacks

58:31Matt Roberts: they were both sweet and savoury snacks it was incredible and then poof he was gone truly like an angel Chris we thank you Greg and Jeff

58:43Catherine Whitaker: angels too

58:45Matt Roberts: we are part of the Athletic Podcast Network folks thank you ever so much for listening we'll of course be back tomorrow or later today or whatever it ends up being to talk about those men's semi-finals look ahead to the women's final on Saturday and bring you up to date with Operation Bruce. We'll speak to you then.

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59:50Catherine Whitaker: Looking to uncover the real value of AI and HR? Season three of the Talent Transformation Podcast is here. In the not too distant future, we're going to build agents that won't eliminate simplify work. It will remove work from humans. Hiring for skills is super important because we'll have to go in adjacent industries.

1:00:10Matt Roberts: If you're going to do a transformation and reimagine your process, you have to say, okay, what are we going to get?

1:00:16Catherine Whitaker: Tune in for conversations with business leaders leveraging disruption to stay ahead. Thank you.