Premier League preview part 1: The title challengers

0:00Liam Twomey: Hello there, it's Totally Football Show back from Los Angeles, back in London and looking forward to our new digs. Let's see, around the back of the Premier Inn. This must be the place. Well, it is a new Premier season that's about to get underway at least. I hope you're ready for some suddenly tiny looking stadiums and halves that seem to go on and on with no hydration whatsoever. ever. What's going to happen? Who are going to be the champs? We're going to start the first of our two preview shows with that very question.

0:36Liam Twomey: Who's your favourites? Is it Arsenal, the reigning champs? There's Bruno G coming in, and there's little solace for their opponents. That's their new winger, Christos. And they already blew past Man City last Sunday. What of City, where it's the beginning of the Enzo, was the Community Shield a preview of a post-PEP problem pile-up. Then there's Chelsea. No, seriously. With Xavi Alonso, do they have the long shot? And we'll be talking about Man United and Liverpool too in this Totally Football Show. Welcome back to the Totally Football Show and I hope you enjoy our fresh surroundings for today's show.

1:13Liam Twomey: Lovely looking spot. The swimming pool just had a shot over there. You're certainly going to enjoy the thrilling line-up that we put together for the first of these preview shows. Duncan Alexander! Hello! How are you? I'm well. Good to see you again, Duncan. And you? Liam Toomey's with us. Hi, James. And Tom Williams. Hello, James. Alright, Tom. Here we are again. Here we are again. It's been about, what, a month since the ranch? Yeah, we made a tearful farewell to the totally LA ranch. You look different. What's... Is it a kind of Shabby Alonso vibe going on there? Well, I'm soft launching a moustache.

1:50I don't have enough of, you know, a conviction in what I'm doing. So I'm still quite bearded. Yeah. But you're the first person to have noticed, James. And it's been there for about a month. So thank you. So what you're saying is the comment section will be vital. Yeah. It will basically live or die on the comment section. So be gentle, please.

2:11Liam Twomey: I'm already casting my vote on that one. Duncan, how have you been since the World Cup? Good. Tour de France was fun. Oh, yeah. I had a bit of downtime in Italy. Nice. Where'd you go? In Tuscany. Nice. Very nice. And then went to Blackpool for Wickham's opening game. Tuscany, Blackpool. Classic combo. How did Wickham's... The power's in both, I guess. Yeah, very true. And how did Wickham get on? They got a 1-1 draw in possibly the most 1-1 game in the history of football. But, you know, that's good, right? If only there was time to talk more about that. Liam Toomey, I haven't seen you since before.

2:47Liam Twomey: Yes. All the shenanigans. Yes. How was your World Cup? It was good, yeah. Following from the UK. Did plenty of podcast work, plenty of writing. Kept very busy. There were, as you know, astonishingly few rest days in the whole tournament. Wall-to-wall football. So I wouldn't call refreshed the word ahead. Because have you been at it since? Yeah. Yeah? Yeah. And then kept busy with the Chelsea stuff. Yeah, exactly. You know, Premier League preview plus all the transfers in the world plus fresh ownership drama. Wow. Wow, Chelsea. So much to talk about today. Big question, who's going to win the title?

3:31Liam Twomey: Who's everybody tipping for the very top? We've also got a little bit of rule changes and other things, the nine managerial movements that have happened, which are making everything a little bit more unpredictable. But those rule changes, Liam, would you sum them up for us? Don't waste time. That would be the shortest possible. And I haven't wasted any time there, so I feel like I'm abiding by them. If you're being subbed, get off. If you're a goalie looking to fake an injury for tactical reasons, don't. If you want to take a throw in, speed up. I mean, I've seen a couple of those in the flesh already, the throw in being switched over.

4:11And players are just sort of like, okay, fair enough. We saw some in the World Cup.

4:15Liam Twomey: Some of this is legacy of the World Cup. Yeah, the players have kind of developed a sort of, rather than pick the ball up when it's going out of play for a throw, they'll now sort of amble around a bit like some sort of ape waiting for the... Because as soon as you pick it up, that's when the ref can start his... Right, it's like pulling the pin from a grenade. Exactly. So look out for that. Hunched players. What do you make of the unprecedented levels of managerial changes, Tom? Well, it makes it very interesting. reminiscent of 2016-17 season when you had Pep Guardiola Antonio Conte Jose Mourinho all taking on Klopp had only just done a few months earlier Jürgen Klopp's first full season as Chelsea as Chelsea manager that's right that's right Jürgen Klopp's first full season as Liverpool manager of course and you know with all the changes it makes this season very unpredictable he says at the dawn of the pre-season predictions podcast.

5:13Right. I do think you can divide the Premier League into little chapters and I think you're right. 16-17 was the start of a chapter that I think came to an end last season. Is this a new chapter? It is a new chapter. I've got some stats, Duncan,

5:26Liam Twomey: about the managerial changes. With the number of new gaffers, Marco Rosa is actually the 12th longest serving manager in the Premier League and he's yet to take charge of a game for Bournemouth. Isn't that incredible? Astonishing. Yeah. This courtesy, well, that was courtesy of producer Charlie. This one's courtesy of Colin Miller. 13 different Premier League clubs have changed their manager or head coach since Bournemouth last lost a football match. Isn't that remarkable? It's true. Bournemouth king of the stats. Arteta, the only manager appointed before Captain Tom started doing laps of a garden.

6:02So, again, makes you think.

6:04Liam Twomey: All right. Lots of people running in with questions. I've got three here. Nippon says, is there a chance that Arsenal will meet the same fate as Liverpool after being declared as overwhelming favourites to win the Premier League? That's a question that we're going to be touching on because today's show very much about are Arsenal going to sweep it. Stephen Taylor says, which team will be most impacted by the World Cup hangover and have a slow start? One to ponder there. Andrew Turner says, who will be Man City manager on 1st January 2027? and Zlato Markovic says, what's the UK equivalent of a skunk?

6:43Liam Twomey: Mmm. Do we not have skunks in this country? No. Diseased badger? TB dripping off its muzzle? I don't know. All right. Big questions. Some answers on the way in the course of today's show. Let's begin with the biggest question of all, who's going to win the whole bloody thing?

7:06Want to turn challenges into chances?

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7:45Liam Twomey: For independent product reviews and recommendations for the real world, come visit us at nytimes.com slash Wirecutter. Premier League title winners. Who have you got and why? Liam. Arsenal. Oh, yeah? Yeah. Okay. Duncan. well I said Arsenal last year so why change a winning habit right you think they're going to win again this time yeah I mean obviously the thing to point out is they haven't retained the title since 1935 since Schrodinger's cat so they're both they could win it and they might not win it but I think I think they will I mean I think they are set up for a little little dynasty is that when Schrodinger's cat dates back to 1937 35 35 sorry yeah yeah and Arsenal obviously do some their best work in the box too.

8:33So it all fits. But yeah, I mean, it really is, you know, I mean, Arsenal have said themselves when the Athletic have done pieces about that they kind of spotted that there was this gap where Liverpool and City and Chelsea were going to be rebuilding. And this was where they kind of, they make their pitch to win and win again. And I think that's kind of where we are. I mean, if you want to make an argument for Arsenal not winning, and Lord knows there's a big market for that argument. you would look at it and maybe say that there was a lot of walking wounded at Arsenal last year heading into the World Cup.

9:08Bakaya Saka and Declan Rice need not 100%. Not helped by the World Cup, by their exertions there. Obviously, William Saliba and his injury. He'll miss a good chunk of the start of the season. So they may be a little bit disrupted and they also missed out on some of their big transfer targets this summer.

9:27Liam Twomey: Right. But they landed one or two other biggies. And is that why you make them favourites, Tom? Yeah, I think it's a combination of the fact that Arsenal are the only one of the big clubs who will go into this season with any real continuity. I mean, I suppose Manchester United have still got the same manager that they did at the end of last season, but he's only been there for a few months. Arsenal got the same group of players, more or less. They've strengthened intelligently. There's the motivation of defending the title for the first time in the Premier League era. But I think in addition to that, even if Arsenal were to struggle to hit the heights that they reached last season, it's hard to make a case for any of their rivals to outstrip them.

10:13Because there were so many question marks around the other big clubs with new managers coming in, new managers coming in with different styles who will likely need a bit of time to bed in. So I think even if Arsenal were to make a slow start, they still have so much in the bank already that rival clubs can't compete with.

10:32Liam Twomey: You mentioned them not landing Vinny Jr. and Morgan Rodgers as well. And Morgan Rodgers, OK. But would they not still look a stronger squad than the one they had last year? Yeah, I think so. I think certainly when you factor in Bruno Gimeraj, I think they tried to address that midfield spot next to Declan Rice last year with Zubamendi and never felt like they were entirely satisfied with that. Now it feels like that's a really, really strong unit with Martin Odegaard seemingly showing signs of getting back to his best again. He seemed like a player who we talk about the World Cup hangover. He seemed actually recharged by the World Cup.

11:10But yeah, he seems quite energised by it, which is funny given how deep Norway went into it and how much he had to play. But he has looked quite jaded for Arsenal in the last couple of years. And he seems to be, he certainly enjoyed himself in the community shield. Yeah. I mean, Saka looks quicker, I would say, already. I mean, he obviously came out the end of England's World Cup campaign and said that he was fitter than people were making out, including Thomas Tuchel. So I think that's probably fine. I think the point about Bruno Gimaraes, he's like the best if not I mean Bruno Fernandes if you call Bruno basically good at line breaking passes and that's kind of what Arsenal didn't have last season those low blocks I think I think adding Solis who's like a kind of faster Trossard is a really good upgrade but I just think Havertz and or Gokerez are going to are going to have many more opportunities playing with Gimaraes than they would have done okay

12:04Liam Twomey: Brendan T says Solis is Trossard with actual sleep yeah yeah Are they going to be more fun? I think so. This time around? Yeah. Why? Because I think we saw it in the community shield as well. Arteta is a pretty relentless developer of his philosophy each season. I mean, he adds a little bit each season. And yes, people point out they were quite set-piece dependent last year. But that was for a number of reasons. I mean, Arsenal had to face lower blocks more than any other team in the Premier League. And they've taken steps to address that this season. and I think you just see Calafiore for a team that are kind of dismissed as defensive their left back basically plays the centre forward half the time so yeah I think they will be more fun I think they'll score more goals and as Tom says I can't see anyone being consistent enough to really challenge them and also the tension has gone that was one of the main factors the second half of last season the number of matches that Arsenal fans found themselves watching through their fingers because the tension was so unbearable because they'd been waiting 22 years for the title.

13:10But what about the tension in 1935? Well, I mean, a different kind of tension, Schrodinger's tension, but, you know, that is an enormous weight off their shoulders. And it's a cliche, but, you know, when they go into those key matches this season, assuming they are in the mix in the title race, as I think we all expect them to be, there won't be that, you know, that vertiginous fear that everything is just going to fall apart, which dogged them throughout last season. They are the defending champions. They're clearly the best team in the league. And now it's more about legacy building and making history rather than, lest we forget, the narrative for an awful long part of last season was they need to shed the bottlers tag.

13:52And now they have. So now they can play with a bit more freedom. With every new champion, there's always the tension between the self-confidence you get and maybe the hunger that you lose. Right. But having been the nearly team for so long, I'm not sure that will be such a problem for Arsenal. I think they'll have the confidence from winning last year, but they'll still have that drive to go and do it again.

14:13Liam Twomey: Who's the pressure going to be on? If it's off Arsenal, who's the pressure going to be on now? Is it Enzo Mureska at Man City, especially with the start they've had? Yes, but I also think that City look to me like a team that half expect to decline a little bit. I mean, they've lost, yes, they've lost Guardiola. They've also lost Roger. They've lost Bernardo Silva. I mean, they're three of the most important factors. I mean, we could all look really stupid in a couple of months and they could have started amazingly, but it just feels like they are at the end of a cycle. Right, because they've still got a pretty good squad.

14:44Liam Twomey: And that front, the line-up of talent that they have up front mentioned how well Odegaard looked in the World Cup, but his Norwegian team-mate, Erling Haaland, was pretty special as well. Yeah, but I think Haaland relies on service and, I don't know, Dokku, sounds like he might have picked up an injury. Elliot Anderson is not offering quite the same as Roger did. Phil Foden is obviously in the middle. He was in the community shield. Again, hasn't really played well for a couple of seasons. So there are a number of questions. And last season, it took them a while to find the right formula in terms of their attacking football, despite the amount of talent in the squad.

15:23And it was only towards the end of the season that Guardiola settled on the right configuration. and what made the difference was sorting out the balance of his midfield. It was from the moment that he started associating Rodri with Bernardo Silva that City suddenly had the platform to play the kind of football they wanted to play. Ryan Shecky starts starting matches as the number 10 and things come together and those two midfield players have now gone. And Enzo Mreska has to create a brand new midfield and as we saw in the Community Shield, he has different ideas about how he wants his team to build up he has different ideas about how he wants them to defend when they don't have the ball the wingers are going to be much more involved in terms of providing width compared to what happened last season they press in a slightly different way my kind of like slightly outlandish prediction for the season is that City are going to have a bad season and flop the bad outside the top outside the top four possibly even outside the top six.

16:26You're talking Chelsea 15-16 levels? Wow. The Mourinho season. Perhaps not quite that bad, but I just, you know, we saw what happened when Ferguson left United. We saw what happened when Vanga left Arsenal. Your job now is to stand by a new... Your new bald, position-focused head coach. And, like, it's not as big a shift because stylistically, Maresca is, you know, close to Guardiola. But there have been big changes in terms of departures, big players coming in who will need to find their feet. And Marescu is changing the way they play. I think also that there's the documentary that's come out this week about Pep's last few months.

17:01And the really interesting thing was there were a few clips where he's absolutely berating the players and then saying, well, I'm going to go and now defend you to the media, which is obviously what a manager should do. Some managers don't do that. But I think that shows that the potential for drop-off is a lot bigger than maybe people have thought because he's not there anymore. Having covered Enzo Marescu at Chelsea as well, I would say there are some key differences between him and Guardiola beyond achievement and status in the game. His football is even more heavily choreographed, I would say, than Guardiola's.

17:35Guardiola, I think, went on a bit of a journey in the last few years of maybe giving his players a little bit more freedom in the middle of the pitch to interpret the game as they saw fit. Whereas at Chelsea, it was this three box three with the ball at all times. He would get there in different ways with fullbacks, inverting and things, but it would always be that shape. And the opposition knew exactly what was coming. So Chelsea, when they were playing low blocks, found it very, very difficult at times. And they were asking an awful lot of their wingers to create everything, basically. And Chelsea's wingers weren't really capable of doing that.

18:09City have much better wingers, although you said, you know, Jeremy Docky may not be fit. Is Jack Grealish back as one of them now?

18:16Liam Twomey: He is back, isn't he? Well, yeah, he's back. He's in the squad, but I'm not sure. He came on, obviously, in the community. Sheeran looked okay, but it was one of those moments you were like, is that Jack Grealish from Man City? Yeah. You did a fine job of painting a picture of a world where Arsenal don't win the title. Can you do the same for City winning the title? I think it's hard just because we really don't know how good Maresco actually is. I don't think we got... So you're saying there's a chance. Well, he won fewer than half of his Premier League games at Chelsea. And now he would probably say he still had more success with that group of players than the other coaches that Bluco have hired.

19:00And he will have a much better squad, I think, to work with at City. But there are a lot of questions about Mareska and his football and also his capacity to deal with criticism, I think. because there were signs at Leicester and signs at Chelsea that if he gets criticised by fans or by the public, if he feels that press conferences have a certain tone, he doesn't handle it well. I always felt like Guardiola was experienced enough that he would get a bit passive-aggressive at times, but he would largely brush it off, whereas Maresca seems quite thin-skinned.

19:34Liam Twomey: Things could Maresca late quickly. To Andrew Turner's question then, And who will be Man City manager on the 1st of January 2027, Tom? I mean, probably still Maresca. You think? Unless things go seriously wrong. Brian Horton? Yeah, there we go. Get the old guard back. I did see someone post after the Community Shield, I wonder what Vincent Company's Manchester City will look like next season. Interesting. They start with Bournemouth. Sorry, Man City start with Bournemouth at home. Arsenal, I mentioned before, they've got Coventry. That's Friday night, I think. It's the opening game. Very interesting.

20:09Liam Twomey: Liverpool, who do they begin with? Ooh, they're at Newcastle. Liverpool, who have changed manager like Man City. What a man they brought in, Andoni Iraiola. Does he automatically, him plus a very, very solid group of players, does that automatically confer them as contender status? it's hard to say because so much of it depends on how quickly he can get his ideas across what do you feel Tom I mean he's he had that slow start at Bournemouth and then boom yeah I mean which makes you think perhaps it will take a bit of time yeah and it's such a it's such a shift from the kind of football that they were playing under Arna Slott and he is exactly the kind of coach that Liverpool fans have been crying out for someone who's going to bring back the heavy metal football and we've seen indications of that in pre-season in the way that they press so much more aggressively than they did under slot and that was obviously a key part of Bournemouth's identity under Irola there are players who you suspect are suited to that style of football but yeah I mean if he can get this Liverpool team playing like his Bournemouth team did they could be contenders but that is one of the many ifs that we have to contend with going into the season Mo Salah's moved on, but they've got those two players that they spunked all that cash on just last summer, Wurz and Isaac.

21:40Second season, they'll come good. I mean, it's quite interesting. No, but will they? I think so, because in pre-season, he's almost been playing a 4-4-2 with Wurz as the sort of Gerrard behind the Isaac Torres sort of situation. Spanish manager, et cetera, et cetera. But I think the squad is really thin. obviously Jacquet's come in you'll know about him does look good Ronald O 'Hara who's come in you know jury's out on that one

22:09Liam Twomey: tell us about Jacquet and why he is required Tom yes well and yeah and thanks to the listener who sent in that the question Gerard Link there as well of course the no Jacquet required quip which I have immediately pinched for the name of my Funti football team oh yeah nice so thanks to that so that means you can't have him in your team yes Yeah, yeah, correct. He's very good. He hasn't played mountains of top-level football, but yeah, he is a tall, quick, rangy, front-foot, centre-back, good on the ball, very confident. And he's basically going to be dropped in at the deep end because there's no Ibrahim Makanati anymore, so he's going to be starting games alongside Van Dijk.

22:54He scored in friendly against Como over the weekend and I think gave a pretty good impression. So he looks like he has the raw materials to become a future France centre-back. They obviously have a pretty deep pool of top-level centre-backs these days. But yeah, I mean, a very exciting signing. But as Duncan said, there are clearly some holes in that squad. We should finally get an answer at Liverpool as to what they can be around Wirtz and Isak, what this iteration of Liverpool. With Salah gone, there's no longer that identity tension there of the team that they were versus the team that they could be but the question I have about Iriola is not his coaching abilities a very talented coach but at clubs of the size of Liverpool it's not always enough he's not outwardly charismatic he doesn't give the sense that he necessarily wants to be talking in press conferences or being the public face of the club and a club like Liverpool that can be quite important particularly if you have a slow start.

23:54Can he bring people with him? Would you say that he's less charismatic than Mikel Arteta then, for example? It's tricky because Arteta's kind of cultivated a persona of sorts, hasn't he? Like this sort of Pep adjacent intensity in press conference, I'm on fire. And so it can feel quite confected at times, but he has at least put effort into constructing it. Whereas I never really got the sense with Arayoli. Always important. I'm sorry Duncan what did you see he bought a dog win the dog so maybe maybe Irelia needs to go down the old buy a dog route yeah Irelia's dog Schrodinger's cat

24:32Liam Twomey: yeah yeah I have a feeling that Liverpool will do really well and that they might be the more realistic contender for the Gunners and the title but we shall see good kit as well nice kit nice kit no Duncan you're not having it I remember not liking the original but then I saw why it became I think the shade of red is not quite right. But, you know, they've tried. One of the curiosities about the many managerial movements this summer in the Premier League is that Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool will have managers who were in the same youth team in the Basque country. Of course, the Chelsea man, Xavi Alonso.

25:13Liam Twomey: Somebody who you were speaking to, Tom, only last week. Yes. Yeah, I went down to Cobham on that day when it was 37 degrees. Hold that story. We'll take the smallest of breaks and then come back with that and a bit of Chelsea chat.

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25:46Liam Twomey: Transform the everyday. with Siemens. Possibly the most exciting development in the first part was Tom's gradually diminishing stature in the show. Tom, we're using new chairs that reflect the value of your input. So that's something you'll be seeing throughout the season. Exciting new feature, yeah. People going up and down. Actually, no, your chair was broken. Well, no, I'm glad we've referenced this because anyone watching will have been perplexed by the fact that I appeared to be disappearing from the screen over the first part of the pod. but I'm now back. With a new chair. Yeah, I did want to be even higher, but that was, yeah.

26:23Maybe. A bit more overruled.

26:25Liam Twomey: For now, at least. All right, I said we're going to talk Chelsea, and Chelsea, we will talk. The why, the why not. The why, first of all, is the fellow who you were sharing a sweltering set in Cobham with, only last week, Xavi Alonso. Tom, do you want to start us off then? How did he seem? Yeah, he seemed pretty confident. and spoke a lot about the need to kind of bring a new mentality to what Chelsea do. I think a lot of the focus on Alonso has been on how he's going to approach things tactically. Because when you think back to that spectacular Bayer Leverkusen team that he led to that incredible unbeaten season with the wing-backs and the box midfield.

27:08Liam Twomey: Apart from the game that they lost. Apart from the one game that they lost in the Europa League final to Atalanta. is he going to be able to succeed in doing something similar at Chelsea? And I wanted to ask him about that. And he was talking about how the most important thing above and beyond tactical considerations is just getting everyone on the same page, pulling in the same direction. And one of the most striking things of the recruitment has been this move to bring in more experienced players. Maxence Lacroix, who I think is the first time Chelsea have spent money on a player, age 26 or over, since Todd Bowley took over.

27:43Since the first summer of their ownership. Since the first summer. First time in four years, yeah. And then Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson. So a clear indication that this attempt to build around very talented young players has probably run its course. Right. And it's time to get some wise old heads.

28:04Liam Twomey: Welbeck, 35. Hendo, 36. nobody over the age of 30 has played for Chelsea in over two years, Liam. What do you think? You're there at Cobham. You've been following the dawn of the new Xavi Alonso era. How much faith do you have? I think there are definitely reasons to be optimistic. Not just because of Xavi Alonso, although he's clearly a huge part of it, but the circumstances heading into this season are so much more favourable for Chelsea than they were last year. Last year they went all the way in the Club World Cup. had no pre-season, they were so physically undercooked compared to every other Premier League team.

28:43And I don't think they ever really overcame. Well, that disadvantage was certainly felt in the second half of the season, I think compounded by the Maresca departure. Whereas this year, a lot of their core players missed the tournament. João Pedro, you know, I think has come in with a real chip on his shoulder, which is a good thing given how great he was last year. I think he's driven to be even better. Cole Palmer. Cole Palmer as well. I think he desperately needed a rest after three years of basically non-stop football. So most of their core and Levi Colwell as well. So a lot of their key players are.

29:19Liam Twomey: And we've got Woodrick as well. He didn't make the World Cup. He's back. He's back. We don't know if he's going to be back at Chelsea for this season. And this is another part of it that I think will be crystallised in the final two weeks of the transfer window. So there aren't a lot of minutes with no European football to go around at Chelsea. And Xabi Alonso is very keen not to have too many players just kicking their heels at Cobham, frustrated at their lack of minutes. So as normal with Chelsea, there's a huge amount of players there. And you feel he's going to whittle that down and settle on the side the way that he did previously at Leverkusen.

29:56Yeah, I mean, I think he's already got a core well in mind. And that will only change really, I think, if Enzo Fernandes or Pedro Neto leave. Aren't they going to leave? It's still open. It's still open. Enzo Fernandes depends, I think, really how hard Manchester City want to push for him. Chelsea briefed this internal deadline of 5pm on a Friday to get the£120 million bid in. that deadline passed without Manchester City putting the money on the table. And now there's a sense they might have to pay even more or pay less favourable terms, i.e. more favourable terms to Chelsea. Because I think Chelsea are mindful that if Fernando...

30:41I think Chelsea are mindful that if Fernandes or Neto leave, unlike a lot of the other players Chelsea want to get rid of, they will need to be replaced, probably at significant expense from other clubs who do not want to have their season preparations disrupted, whether it be Adam Wharton at Crystal Palace or Alex Scott of Bournemouth, the names that have been touted around. It's getting late now and Chelsea have had this Enzo Fernandes cloud hanging over them all summer and I think they just want resolution one way or the other.

31:13Liam Twomey: What about Morgan Rodgers? Is he now the most expensive player in British football history? Most expensive English player. Alex Anderizak has still got there. Right. Most expensive English player in English football history. And that was pretty much a prerequisite of the deal is it has to be more than Elliot Anderson. So it was a token amount more. It was about a million pounds more than Manchester City paid for Anderson. Whose prerequisite was that? Aston Villa's. I think they were determined that if Morgan Rodgers was going to leave, he would have to be the most expensive British footballer ever and Chelsea paid the price.

31:47Why would they care about that? Football clubs love that stuff. A lot of it is like selling an unpopular decision to your fans, isn't it? Right. I can't claim to know what Aston Villa are thinking. I don't cover them. But, you know, if you're going to sell a player who was maybe your best player or second best player last season in the same summer that you've already lost Uri Tillemans, you might want to have a good story to tell your fan base. And I think the price they got for him was justifiable on their end. Maybe not so justifiable on Chelsea's end, but Morgan Rogers has been a player that they've been fixated on for at least two years.

32:25I mean, a lot of transfer fees feel a little bit like they've just been plugged out of thin air, don't they? £64.5 million and no higher. Exactly. That is the fee for this player. Not£65.3 million. So at least there's an explanation for this one. It feels quite old school to me. Yeah. It's going to be more than this guy. A totally different club in a completely unrelated transaction. That is going to determine the value of this very expensive footballer. Was it Trevor Francis that Brian Clough paid£999 ,999? We didn't want him to have the pressure of being a million-pound player. Now, I'd suggest maybe he got that anyway.

33:05Liam Twomey: Duncan, are you liking what you're hearing about Xavi's new look Chelsea? I think so. I mean, as someone who... No, Europe as well. Yeah, that is a big thing. I mean, we saw Manchester United last season. we've seen it with Chelsea before obviously Tottenham have got that advantage this season as well it does help, it really does so yeah I mean as someone who's tipped Chelsea to do quite well on this podcast in previous seasons I now feel scared but I think they'll be alright I think for me they feel like probably the most likely challenges to Arsenal. Well this season is the 10 year anniversary, well by the end of this season it'll be 10 years since Chelsea last won the league, when they last won it under Conte They went in with a manager in his first season who eventually pivoted to 3-4-2-1, which is what Xabi Alonso is certainly moving towards in pre-season and will likely start the season.

33:59And we said earlier that season was the start of the last chapter and now we're at the start of the new chapter. Parallels. Parallels everywhere. You can't move for them.

34:08Liam Twomey: Their opening fixture is an interesting one because they're up against Fulham, which is the last two managers of Real Madrid up against each other. That's so bizarre. Yeah, and I think Alonso and Albeloa have a pretty good, or a long-standing relationship, shall we say, from Liverpool and Real Madrid. So I think there will be a few features written around that game. I think Spanish-flavoured features, some of which may appear on The Athletic. I wonder if, as you're listening or watching this show, your convictions about Arsenal, and possibly here in the room, are shifting a little bit as we list the various, attributes of some of the other contenders.

34:46Liam Twomey: And let's throw Manchester United into that mix. Duncan, they've got continuity. They've made some pretty important signings. Uri Tielemans, and what that's going to mean for possibly the most underexploited talent in the Premier League, Bruno Fernandes. It felt almost like he was wasted in the set-up for so many years under so many managers there. Yeah, I know what you mean. It did feel like the end of last season was basically just United were a sort of Harlem Globetrotters just trying to get him above 20 assists, which slightly undermined the club, I'd say. But I think they've done what they needed to do.

35:22For years, their midfield has been barren, really. Casemiro sort of holding the defensive midfield together by himself. They've obviously signed Andre Santos from Chelsea. The Athletic have reported this morning via David Rohn seeing that they're back in for Carlos Baleba, which obviously he had an injury hit season last year, but a very good player. add that to Fernandes, to Telemans What price are they putting on Belieber? They're trying£60 million I think Liam was saying before it would probably go a little bit higher but I mean I've seen some Manchester United fans say well this is a bit short term signing the likes of Euro Telemans it's like yeah but that's kind of what they need to do they need to kind of re-establish themselves they've got a Champions League campaign to deal with they need to just a good season for United would be a deep Champions League run and being on the periphery of the title race and I think they can probably do that

36:11Liam Twomey: so under Michael Carrick they've actually had the best record of any team in the Premier League he had 17 games last season they amassed more points than any other side in that is it fair to kind of extrapolate that into this season and make them contenders? I think that's a bit of a jump they were playing on easy mode the second half of last season Carrick came in taking over from someone as kind of divisive as Reuben Amarim is a pretty good position to be in they do have a really easy start to the season I mean, Opta said they've got the easiest opening five games. So there's a scenario where they could be sort of a couple of points clear going into that long international break.

36:49And I imagine many, United are back, give them the title now, pieces might be appearing. But I think they're on the right trajectory, which is something we haven't been able to say for quite a while.

37:00Liam Twomey: All right. And they've got players with question marks over them, like Marcus Rashford returning, Mason Mount looking to make good on his promise there. So there's potential in that team. Yeah, I mean, I think what they addressed heading into last season, albeit it took a little while to realise it until Amarim was gone, was difference makers in the final third. And you see that they've got more quality than just about anyone if they need a goal to win a game. Whereas this summer, I think they've added real midfield talent to it. I think Andre Santos is a very good player. Chelsea weren't going to sell him for just any price.

37:37I think they felt good about the price they got, but it doesn't mean he won't be very good for Manchester United. Carlos Baleba was being linked with£100 million transfers a couple of years ago. And Juri Tillemans, at the price they got him for, I'm sure he's on good salary, but he's been a very good Premier League player for a long time. So they've finally got some craft and technical ability in that area of the pitch around Kobe Maynou and Bruno Fernandes. Yeah, I mean, you know, as Liam says, the remedial work that the squad required largely took place a year ago. And for the first time in recent memory, all of United's recruitment last season pretty much paid off.

38:16Benjamin Sheshko had a slow start to the season, but came into his own in the second half of the season. San Alamans was a revelation between the posts. Brian and Bermot, Mateus Cunha found their feet pretty quickly. And so the general structure of the squad looks pretty solid. The big focus this summer was replace Casemiro, find someone to take over from Manuel Agate, who is A, injured and B, not very good anyway. They've signed Tielemans and Andre Santos. It looks like Carlos Baleva is going to follow them. So there's strength everywhere. where Bruno Fernandes is going into this season off the back of his best ever season.

38:55So you'd expect them to kick on. I guess the fear that might haunt some United fans is the memory of what happened after Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was given the job on a full-time basis because he had a similarly positive impact and then that ran aground. That ran aground partly because they went out and brought Cristiano Ronaldo into the team. We can't rule it out. but we're pretty sure that's not going to happen. But I mean, you know, there's been a restructuring at all management levels at United since Ineos came in. And, you know, there was perhaps a feeling when that first happened that you've got a lot of, there's a new technical director, there's a new director of football, not all of these people are still there, but there was, it at least reflected a desire to kind of professionalise the management structure.

39:49And I think the recruitment that we've seen over the last 12 months has been a reflection of the fact that those decisions are being made in a more coherent way. So I feel like they're going into this season on a more solid footing than they have for quite a long time.

40:04Liam Twomey: All right. They begin their campaign away at Hull. Hull will be featuring in our next preview show when we talk about the promoted sides. But I'm wondering, to me, all these teams now seem like absolutely nailed uncertainties for the Premier League title. Have you in any way been swayed by some of the things you've heard Duncan? Is it still very much the gunners? Yeah very much the gunners I think. Followed by what's your prediction? Followed by Chelsea I think. Chelsea do I think the lack of European football and Xavi Alonso being a very good manager and you know their squad is too big but there is talent there.

40:41Chelsea have such a wide range to me because I'm I'm still not sure how well their talent fits together. Right. No way of telling how high they'll finish. A bit like Tom on his chair. I mean, if it clicks and Xabi Alonso is clearly capable of getting it to click, then, as Duncan says, they have all the ingredients to maybe be better than we think. I don't think they can actually be in a title race. I think they could finish maybe a distant second in a season where there isn't really a title race.

41:11Liam Twomey: All right. You want to give us the full top four, Tom? I'm going to go Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea. You agree with that top four, Duncan? No. I will go Arsenal. Yes. I agree with that. Then I'll go Chelsea. Yes, yes. Then Manchester United, then Manchester City. Oh, no Liverpool. And Liam? I think Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City. All right. It's so crucial that we list these big teams in some sort of order before the campaign gets underway. And by the way, Spurs fans, if you're wondering why we had a mention, we just rebuilt our team. We've got the highest paid manager in the world.

41:53Liam Twomey: How about a shout-out for us? We're going to save you for the second show. Why? Because everyone loves Tottenham so much that we needed to keep you back to make sure you check out the second preview show. And they came 17. And they came 17 twice in a row. But that aside, Aston Villa, because they have retained their manager, not all of their players, clearly, and producer Charlie, who's not with us today, did add Aston Villa into this conversation in his suggested outline. I'm a bit confused about that. Can you offer an explanation? It feels a bit aggressive to put them in the title race. I think you have to credit their infrastructure and their decision making, how well run they've been, enough to put them in the Champions League qualification race, despite losing Rodgers, Tielemans, despite the fact that Emery will have to retrofit this team a bit.

42:52And they may well do more in the last two weeks of the transfer window and look quite different. But we have seen before that Emery is very capable of doing that. he's a coach that finds solutions and even if they don't click early in the season they can get really hot later on. He's the most adaptable manager ever. I mean, you see Villa and you go, well, that's their team for the season. Then they sell three of them and bring in some players like, well, that's not going to work. And he just kind of makes it work. So not well enough to win the league, but I think they'll definitely be in the top five again.

43:25In the top five? They were kind of written off a year ago, Villa, and still had a very good season.

43:30Liam Twomey: I remember certainly the first third of the season, I think it was, we were talking about them even potentially being title contenders last time. Yeah, well, they had a wretched start and then they rallied and were brilliant and barely dropped any points and were in the title picture at Christmas and then fell away again. But when the Europa League, you know, they are, I think because they have such a thin squad, they are probably better suited to European competition than to a sustained title challenge. But I think given the amount of upheaval elsewhere, if Villa can have a comparable season to the one they had last season, they'll at least be in the mix for a top four finish, which Villa fans would absolutely take at this point.

44:16And they're interesting as well. I mean, obviously signed Manzambi, who we saw in the World Cup. You saw very closely, didn't you? You loved Manzambi. Oh, yeah. Brian Madjo obviously scored in the Super Cup. Yes. Just looks class, but obviously very young. So you wouldn't imagine him to get that many minutes, but you never know. And then they're signing Suzuki as well. So they've gone quite World Cup-y, haven't they? They've gone like, you know, who's had a good World Cup? Let's get him in. I like that. You know, I like that. And Alejandro Garnaccio.

44:46Liam Twomey: And Alejandro Garnaccio. The West Midlands Rehabilitation Centre for problematic left-sided Man United forwards welcomes another visitor. What do you think, Lou? I mean, Garnaccio's had a tough two years, hasn't he? And it's easy to get lost at Chelsea and he did get lost at Chelsea and it was quite hard to watch at times. I do think Emery is one of the coaches that you would back to get to him and put him in the best positions to succeed. he's really not a player that can shine in any context I think he needs to be in a certain position in a certain system that suits him maybe not against so many low block teams where he's having to beat multiple defenders if he can be a bit more direct a bit more of an off-ball runner those felt like his better moments at Manchester United as well and I think Emery will probably lean into those and we may see more from him than we did at Chelsea OK, so despite the ongoing exodus Plenty of positive noises about Villa.

45:45Liam Twomey: Well, next time out, we're going to chat about Spurs. We're also going to talk about Newcastle. We're going to have a word or two on any other potential surprises that we're expecting. Oxymoronic, though, that sounds. And, of course, we'll talk about the promoted team's prospects of staying in the Premier League. That, though, I believe pretty much fulfils our remit for today, Unless Duncan, Liam or Tom, there's anything else you want to throw out there. Another title contender. Is there? No. Nottingham Forest. Yes. Everyone thinks Forest can do well, don't they? TBC. Right. Okay, then. Well, Duncan, thank you so much for being with us today.

46:27Liam Twomey: Look forward to your company during the season. Liam, same to you. Ditto, Mr. Williams. And to you, James. Loving that facial hair, by the way. Thanks very much. Two thumbs up from over here. I've gone the other way yeah I noticed that I'm approaching boiled egg status you're okay you definitely have shoot enough of face to not be mistaken for an egg I would say alright then that's nice then check us out tomorrow i.e. Thursday when we'll be looking at the rest of the Premier League but for now it's many thanks to everybody and from all of us here goodbye

47:09Thank you.