Premier League preview part 2: Who could surprise us?

0:00Home is for relaxing, whether you're hosting friends for dinner or enjoying a quiet afternoon by yourself with a tasty treat. But it's hard to relax when a couple of flying insects always seem to show up uninvited. Then those one or two fruit flies suddenly become hundreds, and that can make it even harder to relax. Next thing you know, you're spending time swatting them away. Thankfully, the Zivo Flying Insect Trap takes care of flying insects for you. Just plug it in and it gets to work 24-7. Its specifically designed blue and UV light attracts flying insects like houseflies, fruit flies, and gnats, trapping them on a sticky backing without any odors or mess.

0:37The Zevo Trap also features a sleek curved design that keeps captured bugs out of sight, so it blends seamlessly into your home. When the cartridge is full, you just grab the no-mess tab, throw it in the trash, pop in a new cartridge, and then you're done. It's quick, easy, and you never have to touch a single bug. Plug in a Zivo flying insect trap so you can work smarter, not harder, and enjoy your time at home with 24-7 bug protection. Londontown. I just flew in to do some previewing of the brand new Premier League season on this Totally Football show. It's the second of our looks ahead, and it looks like this.

1:19Today we're talking Spurs and Newcastle. Spurs players are exciting. Newcastle players are exiting. What will be happening to those two teams in the months ahead? And what are the promoted sides? Coventry, fresh up from the champs with super Frankie Lamps. Gary O 'Neill, he has his detractors. How will he do with detractors? And the Tigers, are they set for the worst Hull performance since the Titanic? Answers on the way in this Totally Football show. And hello there. Yeah, off we go with another of our preview shows. Once again, we're joined by Duncan Alexander. Hi, Duncan. Hi, James. nice to see you jay harris hey how are you jay it's been a while yeah i was in uh chicago in the summer where you guys were on in sunny la and now we're now we're reunited and it feels so good it does want to hear all about your summer and so much more and also the gentleman who joins us on the big screen because literally there's no room in the studio daniel story daniel welcome back me Welcome back to you, yeah.

2:18Are you missing that motel life? No, because I'm going on the road again this season. I think I said to my boss the other day, I think there's a slight chance I might do 100 live games this season, which would be a first and would be fun. All right, where are you going to start? My match number four this season is going to be Arsenal versus Coventry on Friday night to open up this Premier League season. Of course you've already got started and done three games while the rest of us were off doing whatever it was we've been doing. Daniel, you will recall, was all over the United States during the World Cup and will be performing a similarly thorough job on the Football League season ahead and Premier League as well.

2:58Jay, what have you been up to since the World Cup? So I was in Chicago during the tournament and I was working on a TV show and I know, well, listeners might not know that we're both big fans of the bear, but I have a confession. Not so much. I have a confession to make. I didn't realise until my final few days in Chicago that the original beef that the show is based on was a 10 minute walk from my apartment. No way. But my work commitments meant that I couldn't go. You never went. I never went. I feel quite bad about that. There's nothing I can say really that make you feel any better. Duncan, you and I have already done a preview show.

3:35What was the highlight of that, would you say? Everyone deciding that Arsenal are going to win the league. It was extraordinary. The variety, the sheer variety. No, but there were some surprises in there too, and I urge you to go and check it out if you haven't already listened. If you have, I hope you enjoyed it and you stuck around for this one. Well, that's nice. In the course of today's show, we're going to be speaking about promoted teams, prospects, more of this crazy amount of new managers we've got in charge of Premier League sides. We'll also be answering some more of your questions. GH Trader says, would be good to get thoughts on the transfer business of the promoted sides.

4:11All three have taken very different approaches. We'll definitely be touching on that. James says, I want to hear the thoughts on Ipswich's squad this time around compared to two seasons ago. Hold on, Jay. We'll be coming to it. And TGF says, going down, question mark, Hull, Coventry, Fulham. The sooner, says TGF, the Frank Lampard love-in is over, the better. Wow. Blimey. Well, as I say, the sides that have just come up will be coming up in the course of our conversation. And we're going to be talking a lot about Spurs. Jay, I was asking you before what you're looking forward to this season. And you said not covering a toxic Spurs.

4:48And I said, which club are you going to be covering then? And you said, no, you think Spurs are not going to be toxic this time around. That's my hope for sure. I've been covering Spurs for two years now and they finished 17th on both occasions, which was not part of the bargain when the bosses said to me, you know, we've enjoyed your work on Brentford. Now you're going to cover a club competing for the top six every year in the Champions League. It's not quite worked out. Right. Not top six, but toxics. Yeah, exactly. I must have misheard them. Very possibly. All right. Not 17th this time around.

5:20We'll be hearing the rationale behind that very shortly. But can I just quickly run through the fixtures? Because literally this thing is about to kick off. Friday night, Arsenal taking on Coventry. That's the opening game. Champs, the lamps. Saturday, the lunchtime game is Hull against Man United. Everton, they're up against Crystal Palace. That's Piers Saarge, I'll call him, his first game in charge of the Eagles. Ipswich against Sunderland at three. That's Gary O 'Neill's first game in charge of the Tractor Boys. Nottingham Forest against Leeds. Daniel, as you know, that's Oliver Glasner's Premier League debut in charge of Forest.

5:57Then you've got Brentford against Spurs. The Jay Harris has covered us derby. There's more new managers ahoy on Sunday with Man City taking on Bournemouth. Both teams with new men in the dugout. Brighton against Aston Villa, also at 2 o 'clock that day. Newcastle-Liverpool a little bit later on on Sunday. Again, two new managers, Mataz Jasler and Andoni Iraiola. And then Monday, Fulham-Chelsea, which as we mentioned in our first preview show, will be the last two managers of Real Madrid face-to-face in a West London derby. Extraordinary. Anyway, what say we begin with Tottenham Hotspur? All right then, Jay.

6:39Tottenham Hotspur, new back line, new midfield, highest paid manager in the world. What could possibly go wrong? Well, I don't know if he is the highest paid manager in the world, but he's certainly on a lucrative five-year contract, Roberto De Zerbi. But it's been a complete different attitude we've seen from Spurs in the transfer market. Go back 12 months ago to last summer. They missed out on signing Antoine Semenyo, Morgan Gibbs-White, Eber Echeese Brian and Bumo they did sign Javi Simons but that was I think the final few days of the window it just felt like their recruitment was a bit scattered and then they suffered you know an ACL to James Madison so it was just poor preparation for the new season and this year they've just come out and splashed cash which we've we've never seen them do in this manner before broke their transfer record twice in the space of a week with Matias Fernandes and Sandro Tonali they also signed Robertson Marco Senesi on a free I think really intelligent deals picked up Jean-Paul Van Hecker from Brighton and I think what's equally important which we shouldn't overlook is they got Antonin Kinski to sign a new contract and Mickey Van Averen and Pedro Porro and considering Porro has just won the World Cup with Spain and Spurs have been pretty bad for the last two years I don't think anybody would have blamed him for seeking a new challenge this summer but clearly he's been impressed by what De Zerbe wants to do and decided that he should stick around They don't have any Europe They don't have any Europe no But we obviously record this before the transfer window closes.

8:05The big question mark over what Spurs can achieve this season is all about what are they going to do in the final couple of weeks with that attack? Because at the moment, that is of real concern. Right. So Richarlison was top scorer last season, which speaks to the paucity of options. What do they need to do? What are they looking to do? So you're right. Richarlison, I think, was top scorer with 11 goals last season. But yeah. But he's never been fully fit over the last couple of years. So I think going into a season where he's your most consistently available striker is risky. I'm a huge fan of Dominic Solanke.

8:38I think he's a great footballer. But over the last 18 months, he struggled with ankle, knee, muscle injuries. Something has happened. Whereas he was the epitome of consistency during his time at Bournemouth. I think across his last three seasons there, he only missed five league games. During his two seasons with Spurs, he's only started 36 league games. So less than 50%. Sorry, I know I'm stealing all the stats today. So right now we're looking at Saturday's game against Brentford. I don't really know who's going to start up front for them. Richarlison through the middle, yes. Matisse Tell on the left.

9:10Wakudas has not played since January because of a quad injury and he's not featured at all in pre-season, although I think he's back in training. I can't suddenly imagine him starting, maybe off the bench. Wilson Odebeir is out with an ACL. Xavi Simons is out with an ACL. Kulisevsky's not played in over a year because of a kneecap injury. So do you put Connor Gallagher on the right wing? Do you put Lucas Bergvall out wide? I'm not really too sure. So I guess if you were to compare Spurs to a house, which for some reason I am, you'd say that the first two levels of the house look absolutely immaculate, but there's potentially no roof at the moment.

9:48Right, okay. Which in the current weather is probably okay, but you want to get it sorted out before, say, October. I don't know. Daniel, what do you think? What should the architect be adding to this particular edifice? I mean, Jay's absolutely right about the attack. And I completely take the point about the investment in those players. There's two concerns I have. One is the sheer amount of change because it's not unthinkable that Spurs have, at some point, start with a centre-back combination of Sanessi and Van Hecker and a centre-midfield combination of Fernandes and Tonali, who are all new.

10:25That's a huge amount of change to make work quickly. And the other thing, and Spurs fans might not like me saying this, but I'm not 100 % sure why some of those players have joined, what the motivation was. And what I mean by that is I think Spurs have deliberately calculated that they needed to overpay to get the deals done quickly. So they spent£100 million on Tonali. They spent£85 million on Fernandes because that was how they got to the front of the queue, having finished 17th and having no European football, which is great. And that's, you know, it's got those players in, but you then have to keep those players happy really quickly.

11:02Otherwise, they start to think, well, why did I move here again? So they need to hit the ground running. I think that's my point. If in October they are 13th, 14th, 15th in the league, it just creates this sense of like, oh, we spent all that money, but what has actually changed to take us up? Let's face it, they want to be finishing 10, 11 places higher this season. I need to see that to believe it first. Having said all that, they are tremendously exciting additions to the side, Duncan. Yeah, it feels like a long time since the clubs sort of completely reshaped their team in the summer. it feels like I don't know like early late 80s early 90s Tottenham when they brought in players like Gascoigne and Lineker and really sort of you didn't really know what to expect and maybe they didn't achieve as much as they could have done with those players but it was good times though yeah memorable times and I think it was so toxic at Spurs at points last season I mean it's kind of sweet that Kinski is now a first choice goalkeeper because who would have predicted that after that Champions League game when it was just felt so sorry for him So I do think there's obvious progress, but to Daniel's point, I think they do need a good start more than most teams.

12:12I think they need a good start. Will they be ruthless, Jay, when they take on Brentford this weekend? Because Brentford made one or two interesting signings themselves, eh? Yeah, I think Brentford summer has been very different to last year as well. A huge summer of change with Thomas Frank leaving, Christian Norgard and Bumo Visser. and this has just been a bit more of a quiet summer just building upon the great work that Keith Andrews did in his first season at the club yes Jordan Henderson has left but they brought in Mamadou Sangari club record signing one of the best players in the French League last year so I think hopes are really high for him I think one of Brentford's biggest problems last year and is the main reason why they just missed out on Europe was if Thiago wasn't scoring there was just a complete lack of alternative options going forward I think their backup winger last year was Rhys Nelson who ended up with something like 188 minutes in the Premier League something obscene because of injuries etc so bringing in Jadon Anthony from Burnley it's not the most eye-catching deal but he had pretty solid numbers in the Premier League last season bringing in Callum Wilson from West Ham as an alternative to Thiago I think it's just really sensible shrewd stuff so I think there'll be a difficult proposition at the weekend for Spurs Spurs are currently bottom of the table because it's half-basical and for the first time is this right Duncan for the first time in the history of the Premier League.

13:29There are no teams with names beginning with W in the 20 or in the division. Yeah, I think it's technically true for all time, Top Flight. A few people have pointed out... Game's gone. But I think Woolwich Arsenal counted a couple of seasons at the start of the 20th century. So, yeah. For fans of letters, it really is a whole new ballgame. The Athletic has a hopometer. Is that... That's what you're going with, hopometer, yeah? George Corkin's been entrusted with that. He's currently chronicling the optimism, pessimism payoff between supporters of clubs up and down the Premier League. You won't be surprised to hear that Spurs' supporters are up near the top at the moment, although currently Leeds count as the most optimistic.

14:12This time last year it was Chelsea. That worked out so well for them. The other end of things, the teams with supporters with a dim view of their prospects, you look at Newcastle, Everton, Fulham, and Liverpool, Liverpool bottom. I kind of expected to see Newcastle down there, Daniel, on account of the enormous changes that have been happening on Tyneside. Eddie Howe leaving a short time before the start of the new season and three of their most important players out as well. Yeah, and reflective, I think, of a fairly chronic lack of leadership, not necessarily this summer, but certainly in the 18 months leading up to Eddie Howe leaving him, which basically supporters first kind of realised that he was the only thing keeping the ship afloat and better than that and taking Newcastle forward and then realised that when he started making mistakes, there was nothing really beneath him to stop the fall.

15:10I think Howe got very weary. I think it was the right time for him to leave, although again, the leadership that allows him to pick his own time and to do that three or four weeks before the start of a new season is pretty wretched. And we have seen as a result that some of those key players, rather like Spurs, I think, there has to be a reason for a player to want to stay at Newcastle. And for a long time under Howe, it was that morale and emotional buy-in that he felt. And yes, that the very rich, the super rich owners allowed an ease of ambition. When that goes, there is very little reason to stay, unfortunately.

15:49And fans don't like me saying that, But you've got someone like Sandro Tonati says, well, quite fancy London, thanks. You've got Brunev Goumara, she says, well, I quite fancy winning a league title in my career, thanks. You've got Anthony Gordon, he says, well, I think I'm underappreciated, so I'm going to go abroad and a potential Champions League winner is going to sign me. And at the same time, PIF have seemingly pivoted to a strategy of player development rather than heavy investment. Partly, I think, due to restrictions of financial rules and partly because I think, how do I say this? I think there are other priorities within PIF and the Saudi state at the moment.

16:30So it's a really, really fascinating season for Newcastle. I think them and Villa are the two clubs where you could predict, as it stands now, there's such a vast range of finishing positions and I'd believe arguments on any of them. If that squad clicks, there is still enough talent there to finish in the top eight or nine under a really exciting manager. If the manager starts slowly and everybody who is still there thinks, ah, this was someone I should have got off the train as well, they can finish bottom five. They are the third highest spenders on players aged under 21 in a single transfer window, Newcastle.

17:06I'm not sure what that stat really means, but it does suggest this pivot to prospects, which is true of the manager as well, Matias Jasler. Duncan? They've obviously got some filters on their software that some of Newcastle because when they sold Gimmarais to Arsenal they were like, it's a record fee for a player in his position of his age. So, you know, they've obviously very much know when and where they can shop for players. But yeah, I mean, I also think their kit, you can't have a good season in a kit that ropey. So it is concerning. What I want to say about Newcastle is, and Daniel alluded to it a little bit.

17:43When teams decide to pivot and focus on signing people under the age of 23, 21, whatever it is, yes, I completely understand the theory behind it, but you can't take all of the leaders out of the squad. You need people to guide them. And that's clearly a lesson that Chelsea have finally learned with the additions of Henderson and Welbeck. I hate to bang on the Brentford drum, but I remember speaking to someone from Brentford many years ago and they said, There's no point putting two 20-year-old centre-backs together, right? You need to make sure that one of them's paired with a 30-year-old centre-back, someone who's experienced, who can help them, guide them through mistakes, etc.

18:18And I think the problem with Newcastle is that they just have almost an abundance of young talent at the moment. But who is going to be there to sort of hold their hand through difficult moments in the season? Throw in a manager who's experiencing the Premier League for the first time, and it does just feel like a recipe for things going wrong. And I feel a little bit sorry for Jasler, who I think conducted himself quite well in the first couple of weeks and his press conferences and interviews and stuff. Bearing in mind, he's come in at a time when things are going very wrong. He's remained quite calm.

18:46But I think the supporters are already growing frustrated with the overarching project. And I feel like if he does start slowly, not even necessarily because he's done anything wrong, the fans are just going to get restless. And, you know, St. James' Park is an amazing place to be when everyone's brought in. But if they're frustrated, then you're also going to sense that as well. And an opening game against Liverpool, who for all of their upheaval over the summer do look a much stronger side in prospect. Very good. That's Newcastle. Loads more to talk about today. We're going to be touching on some of the other new managers taking charge.

19:22In fact, next up, let's see why Nottingham Forest fans are so positive about their prospects under Oliver Glastner.

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21:24Yeah, managerial movers all over the shop, really. You can't move full wealth. Manager's moving. Oliver Glastner in at Nottingham Forest. Who saw that coming? Not I. Palace replacing him with Piersage out of Lens. Fulham have replaced Marco Silva with Alvaro Arbeloa. Marco Rose is in charge of Bournemouth. He says Andoni hasn't left much room for improvement, which I think is a fair summary of the position there. That'll inspire the players. Yeah. They didn't sell off all their best players, though, this time. True. Yeah. Well, partially because Kruppi's injured. Yes. All right. Forrest, though, Glasner, who has essentially swapped Crystal Palace for a team that finished a place below them last season.

22:15Why Daniel? Does he fancy time off at Christmas? Or what do you think the reason is? It's a fair dig. I think you talked about the Hopometer and I think Forrest were third or fourth on that list, something like 96 % positive. I think that is a reflection of Glasner and nothing else. I think it's a reflection of, I think, most reasonable, non-emphatically pessimistic Forest supporters, so ruling myself out, see the chaos of last season as the nadir of that Forest mania. And that Oliver Glasner taking the job even is a symbol that that will end and that he can be the stable force. He is, quite frankly, the highest profile manager in terms of the recent success that Forrest have appointed since Brian Clough.

23:07Literally, for 50 odd years, Forrest have never managed to get someone, poach someone that high. They've always gone for options that are built at Forrest or have been slightly down on their luck. So it's a phenomenal appointment in that sense. It doesn't mean it will work, but it's a phenomenal appointment. I also think they will keep hold of Morgan Gibbs-White. famous last words, but I think he will give them one more season. Elliot Anderson has obviously left, but they're going to rebuild the midfield. They've at the moment only signed Xhavie Slager to do that. But you can expect at least one more striker, you can expect another wing-back and you can expect another central midfielder by the end of the window.

23:46And also, it's worth saying, we're going to talk probably a lot about teams that don't have European football or do have European football. And it really knackered Forrest last season. So having between 40 and 45 games is going to be a huge plus for Glasner because he experienced exactly the same thing as at Palace last season. So that'll help. Do you think he's a good fit for Forrest, both in terms of the boardroom and also the playing staff? I think his acumen means that he is a necessary fit, whatever else has happened. There are two caveats to that. One, he tends to fall out with people. And as you may have heard, Forrest has an owner who also can fall out with people.

24:25and B, Forrest signed about 32 wingers last summer, most of which are quite expensive and Oliver Glasner doesn't play with wingers. So in terms of that fit, no. I think Baku, it sounds like he's going to leave maybe to Hull on loan. Dan and Doyle is going to play as this kind of reserve number 10. We'll see how that goes. Hutchinson and Hudson-Odoi, goodness only knows, but he will make it work. Everything you hear out of the club this summer is that the players who are pretty disillusioned in March and April, have come into pre-season training needing to be impressed. And the appointment of Glasner has done that.

25:01So that's why Murillo is still there. That's why Nico Williams is still there. That's why Gibbs-White is still there, because Glasner's there. So they needed a statement. And somehow Forrest have managed to make one. An FA Cup and a Europa Conference League trophy. in his personal Palmares from his time at Palace, from whom Forrest have managed to lure him away, which I'm sure makes the deal even sweeter. He has managed in the Premier League before. Palace is a replacement for him, Piers Sarge. Stone wise, as Julien Aronnes was wont to call him, Julien often full of praise for the Lons manager.

25:39Good to have a Premier League manager whose name is also in a roast dinner as well. It might help him settle. him coming in at Palace him like Matos Yesler not having had any Premier League experience how do you think that's going to go Duncan? I think one of the managers that's not had Premier League experience is going to really struggle and it could be Yesler but Sarge is my guess I've just got a feeling it's not going to work Palace have had two amazing seasons and it just feels like it's a big move for him to come to a London club and try and keep that success going and obviously they're in the Europa League now.

26:15They have got the dream of the perfect step from winning Conference League, then you win the Europa League, then you win Champions League. World Club Cup. Intergalactic mega-tournaments. But I fear they won't. And to Daniel's point about Forrest not having to play in Europe, Palace do. I think that's going to hamstring them as well. Yeah, Bournemouth are going to be in that Europa League as well. They've also got a manager who's not featured in the Premier League before, Marco Rosa. Who's excited by Marco Rosa at the Vitality Stadium? I think it's a hospital pass, but I think the ceiling was raised so high by Iola that it took some of the floor with it.

26:54So even if Bournemouth have a really bad season, I think a really bad season for Bournemouth, same as Brentford, is like 13th or 14th now, which is just a phenomenal thing to say about clubs of that traditional size. as you said a few minutes ago they have kept most of the component parts I would be really if I was a Bournemouth fan I would be desperate to wake up on September the 2nd and Alex Scott still be a Bournemouth player because I think that's game changing in terms of how Rosa wants to run that midfield and as a fan of a non-financial elite club the thing about not selling players in June and July is that you worry that they're going to be sold in the second half of August and there will always be that worry but the component parts are so good and so exciting and so young in most places that I can't really see any huge issue the club has also moved to do most of its business I think other than probably a reserve goalkeeper Bournemouth had done so he's had a decent pre-season at it as well and yeah they're not a club that are gonna if they believe in Marco Rosa they're not gonna sack him for finishing 13th or 14th which some other clubs might feel they have to do having finished in the top eight.

28:02So it's a really nice position to be in. I hope it works. I like him as a manager. I think following Iola is really hard, but it's not the kind of chaos or potential upheaval of Palace and of Fulham, who I worry about far more than Bournemouth. And plus, it's their first ever European adventure. So the emphasis, the focus may well be on what they can get up to in the continent. There in Europe, nine Premier League sides are going to be having continental action of some sort or other, including Sunderland in the Europa League too, and Brighton who made it into the Conference League. Out of all of these, the Bournemouth, Brighton, Sunderland, etc., who do you think will actually make a real go of it in Europe?

28:51Maybe Brighton because they've been in Europe before. Conference League as well has been rich pickings for the Premier League side so that would be my tip although it has been reported today that they're going to be losing Carlos Baleba he's on his way to or potentially going to be on his way to Manchester United although Baleba didn't actually play that much last season I think he only started 23 times his form sort of dropped off a little bit and Herzler brought him off at half time on four occasions so actually maybe getting that money for him and reinvesting it in a different place is not the worst deal in the world I think we're all doing a bit of sort of umming and ahhing about all of these teams and there's a really good reason for it which is that last season sixth in the premier league only won four more games than west ham who went down right so in fact but sixth only won three more games than west ham bournemouth only won three more games than west ham but all of the teams in that sixth to 18th either won between 10 and 14 games so it doesn't take a huge drop off because of europe to actually fall seven eight nine places It makes it, I think, harder than ever with nine teams in Europe to pick how that's going to go.

29:58Because, as you say, Fulham, a club like Sunderland, they only get 10 fewer points and you're level with Nottingham Forest in 16. So that's what makes this really hard and basically impossible and why I'm caveating all predictions with we don't know what we're talking about. And what makes it even more dangerous is the fact that the side who've been locked into 17th place for two years now are no longer going to be there. They should be as high as 15. 15. That's what they're saying. Sorry, Duncan. Yeah, and to Daniel's point, I think, you know, we talked about it a lot last year, but this was the competitive top flight that a lot of people have been asking for for a long time.

30:31This is what used to happen a long time ago. You know, City, the only team in the 30s to win the league and then go down the following season. What? I mean, that's not going to happen, clearly. But it is that variation that we didn't see for a lot of the 2000s and 2010s. Right. And I like it. Me too. Who's going to be going down? What are the chances that the promoted sides can make a go of it and stick around. Let's discuss them next.

31:00Hi, I'm Jack Cravici, Kramer host of The Best One Yet. At T-Boy, we're always talking about small decisions that can have an outsized impact. One of the simplest is staying hydrated. Whether I'm traveling, getting a workout in, or heading into a busy day, I keep Liquid IV on hand. It's clinically demonstrated to hydrate faster than water alone and contains three times the electrolytes of the leading sports drink, plus eight vitamins and nutrients. It's an easy addition to your daily routine and helps support hydration when you need it most. Shop now at liquidiv.com. Liquid IV hydration that goes wherever life takes you.

31:34Who are your promoted sides? They are, of course, Coventry City, championship champions back after 25 years, Ipswich, who were the runners-up, making an instant return, really, to the top flight, and Hull City, after 10 years away, who came in through the playoffs, aided perhaps by all that business with Southampton and that. We mentioned at the start some of your questions about the transfer approaches of the various sides. GH Trader would be good to get thoughts on them, very different approaches. How do we think each one's going to hold up? And the listener who was asking about Ipswich and whether they are better placed, James, his name is.

32:17love to hear the guys thoughts on Ipswich squad this time around compared to two seasons ago consensuses will go down despite a totally different profile of player to the last time where do you want to start Coventry Ipswich and Hull first of all Jay do you have strong thoughts Hull for example are they as doomed as everybody's making out brutally personally yes and that's just because I've not been inspired by what they've done in the transfer business whatsoever. I know they've signed Joe Gelhart and Matt Target and a couple of guys who've got Premier League experience, but not at the top level.

32:56I think they signed Morita from Sporting Lisbon, a Japanese international. That is a deal that I'm quite intrigued by. And they picked up a centre-back from Rayo Velocano, who finished eighth in La Liga last year. So there's a couple of things I'm intrigued by. Lucas Herrington. But he's 18, had a very rapid rise over the last six months, year or so are we really expecting him to have a significant impact in his first season in the Premier League I'm not personally and if he does then full credit to him I just don't think that they've I mean I can't say I watched the championship a lot but my understanding is that whole overperformed maybe he will expand on it they overperformed in the championship and the squad hasn't changed massively and I've not seen a huge injection of quality into that squad well they were tipped for relegation in the championship and ended up coming up so who knows what similar predictions could mean for this campaign.

33:46So some people don't like underlying numbers and say, well, what actually counts is goals going in the net in real life. But I think over a long period of time, they do give you a guide to the strength of a team. And Hull were the second lowest team in the championship last season. Only Sheffield Wednesday, obviously. For what? For XG performance. So looking, you know, expected points, how you want to cut it up. So effectively, based on the quality of their football, they were the second worst team in the division. And yet they've come up, which as a huge fan of Derby getting 11 points I was just going to ask as somebody who's personally invested every season in seeing if that and you know how confident I am every year it'll be fine but this time this time I'm worried worried about Derby's points total of 11 so I need a I need a couple of early Hull wins just to ease my concerns is there not a part of you that thinks at the end of the season come May we're going to be clipped up on Hull's social media channels like Sunderland did that last year didn't they yeah that's going to be us I hope so He said we'd get 11 points, we actually got 12.

34:44And yeah, fine. Mayor Culper. I'm pretty certain it was something who basically clipped up everybody who said they were going to go straight back down, et cetera, and made like a montage of it. Brilliant. That's going to be us. Okay. I think Hull are going to go straight back down. Just need the exposure. Daniel, your take on Hull, please. I think Hull are going to go straight back down. I mean, I think they are, in their defence, last season was a lottery win so i mean literally they had no expectation of finishing even in the playoffs and they came up to the premier league that has banked them probably 120 million pounds i think the squad building they've done is sensible for a championship promotion bid 27 28 and that's to be honest exactly how you should do it there's no point um having won the lottery there's no point spending it all in the first year so yeah I think good on them I don't think going down needs to be a failure and I think they will go down all right who do you think is going to stay up then from the promoted sides will the other two do it I think Ipswich are going to stay up that's my uh it feels like a hot take because everybody's thinking the primary clubs will go but I think getting Gary O 'Neill in although they didn't want to lose McKenna um I think allows them to play a more pragmatic defensive brand of football than I think McKenna would have done it hasn't seemingly stopped the ambition of the club in the transfer market nor their ability to get the players they wanted there aren't many needle movers but I think Issa Diop and Sasa Lukic are a kind of dependable spine and Cesar was a really clever signing my only issue and Maeda yeah Maeda as well my worry is that I would like them to have a kind of physical dependable experienced striker to lean on they've signed Emerson from Toulouse who is kind of really raw and I think he's signed I think he's scored eight senior league goals in his career so like they're depending quite a lot on that I worry where the goals are going to come from but I think they will be kind of I think they will be the hardest promoted club to beat and that might be enough but look we're depending upon another Wolves happening someone collapsing I think the other thing with Ipswich is they've kind of copied Sunderland's approach by raiding France a lot, which obviously makes sense with O 'Neill a bit being in charge.

37:05But, you know, they've spent almost 200... Because of his league-run experience at Strasbourg? Not for long, obviously, but a bit. But they've spent almost£200 million, which... Are they fourth in Premier League net spend? I think so. I read that. Might have moved since then because... It's always changing at the moment. But that's a huge investment. Have they put a roof on their house? well it's a they're tractors so it's more of a more of a so true it's a thatched it's a thatched roof can I ask a random question who's the best signing out of the three promoted teams I'm always going to say Kyle Rushworth who the Coventry goalie who I think is absolutely exceptional and will be England's goalie in the next few years wow tell us more Duncan well I saw him on loan at Lincoln he was Brighton goalkeeper playing Wickham and he was the most outstanding keeper I've seen in League 1 he was at Coventry last year on loan and was brilliant.

37:58His distribution's excellent. And I was really surprised. I was on holiday and saw a notification come up. It was like Coventry have spent£22.5 million, which, you know, to the 14-year-old me, would have been a shocking thing. A goalkeeper going to Coventry City for£22.5 million. But I think the fact they got him is, you know, really important. And I think he'll be really good this year. Amazing. Coventry, though, TGF was saying, TGF, you recall the listener mentioned back at the start, are not going to be really good this year because Super Frankie Lampard is not himself a manager worthy of this level.

38:35Who would care to counter that argument? Daniel? He created last season the most phenomenal team spirit and will to win through late goals, through kind of fighting to the end that I think I've ever seen in the Championship. Coventry were not amongst the top three favourites for the title at the start of the season, which is quite easy to forget when they waltzed to huge points totals. But they did it effectively with a fairly championship-y squad. They'd spent well, but not heavily. They didn't have parachute payments. The owner, Doug King, is thoroughly invested, but is not going to spend 50 million in the championship, which some clubs are able to do now with the parachute money.

39:21That can be a determining factor in them staying up or going down. The caveat is that the defending last season, the Championship, was not brilliant. The defensive record wasn't great. They just scored a heck of a lot of goals. And you generally get punished more in the Premier League for those and have fewer chances to score. I really like the signing of Awanee from Forrest. I think that's a kind of good getting Premier League experience in. I have been finishing 19th, so it's difficult to me to be wildly positive about it. But I think they'll give it a good go. I think they'll just fall short.

39:53The problem with all these promoted clubs is, have you signed enough players that makes you better than Fulham and Crystal Palace and Sunderland and Forest and all those clubs? And it's really hard to do that. OK, well, let's get your bottom three predictions. And also, if you think anyone is going to survive, who are the established Premier League side who are at risk of going down? You mentioned Fulham. I see a lot of people mentioning by the sound of it. Some of us are even tempted by the notion of Newcastle being in that particular conversation. But your bottom three, Daniel, since you've given us one of them.

40:22Hull City, Coventry and Crystal Palace is my outsider. All right. Duncan, are you thinking similar thoughts about Palace? Yeah, I'm worried about Palace. I would also concur about Fulham, Newcastle as well. I think Sunderland as well. If we're going to go down the underlying numbers route, they were like 19th or 18th best team in the Premier League last year. Can they outperform again? Maybe. But with Europe as well, I think it's going to be tricky. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a team from the North East go down. Okay. Would you like to give us a bottom three? Let's go Hull, Sunderland, Coventry.

41:03I'm just going to be boring and go with all three promoted sides. Because just on Fulham, I have my concerns about Alvaro Abelho, but if he does badly, then he won't be in charge come the end of the season, right? And I still think there's enough quality within that squad. Like Daniel just said, are the promoted teams going to buy enough players that are going to take them above the level of Fulham who have Calvin Bassi Alex Wobi Joachim Anderson okay yes they've lost Jimenez Wilson and Marco Silva's gone and he did a tremendous job there for over five years but I do think there's enough quality within that squad and I do sort of wonder if you know bringing in someone like Arba Lowa the benefits it has is his Real Madrid connections right Garcia and Palacios could turn out to be amazing signings and we're all sat here looking saying someone else should have bought them so I do worry about them but I also see enough evidence to think that even if things went badly under or below they'd be fine and we're also all assuming things are going to go badly they might do a pretty good job on them well that's fair clip that up as well and this time last year not Jay to be fair but everyone else was going Keith Andrews at Brentford I can't see that working and it worked do you know who's not been mentioning any of this except earlier on when I talked about which fans are the most optimistic and that's Leeds Leeds have done some a very canny transfer business.

42:20I would suggest, Daniel, is that right? And what is their threshold? Well, what their threshold is that from mid-December to the end of the season, they were seventh best team in the Premier League in terms of the points they picked up. From almost exactly the point that Farker changed the formation and it seemed to settle down the players and then in turn settled down the fans. And for once at Leeds, it does feel quite calm. I think they need another striker. Okafor, Nemecha and Calvert-Lewin scored 28 Premier League goals between the last season. That was more than Salah, Izak, Eketike and Gatpo.

42:56I don't think that's going to happen again. So one more striker would be good. But they've signed a massive defender to replace Pascal Stroik, who's gone to Brighton. They've just done some really clever, smart, under-the-radar business. And as I say, it's calm at Leeds, and that's always a good thing. It's when things start getting noisy at Leeds that it starts cracking. So, yeah, for once they have a manager. I think it's probably the first time that 90 % plus fans of Leeds are happy with Daniel Farker, happy with the manager and the squad. So that can be really, really powerful at Ellen Road.

43:27Harry Wilson coming in there at Ellen Road, James Trafford as well. Do you know the centre-back who they signed? What's significant about him? Oh, I've just read it now. He was fouled by Balogun, who then got sent off and triggered one of the maddest sequences and weeks in probably FIFA World Cup history. That's so true. So I'm actually quite intrigued to see if he is a good footballer or not. And for him to sort of move away from just being forever linked to that incident. In all of our minds. He is forever going to be linked. Indelitably. Every time he appears on commentary next season, that incident is going to be referenced.

44:00That's so true. That's so true. Well, there you go. Have we mentioned your side? Possibly not. I don't think we've mentioned Villa. Villa. They crept into our contenders, title contenders chat, sort of for reasons that none of us were really clear on. But you earlier said that, like Newcastle, with the amount of upheaval, the churn that they've had transfer-wise, it's very hard to put a finger on exactly where they might end up. What's your take on Villa? Assuming that Konza and Watkins go, which sounds like it might happen, they're going to have lost two of their top three chance creators from last season.

44:36they're going to have lost six of their 11 starters in the Open League final. And their remaining top goal scorer from last season is going to be Emi Buendia, who got six. It's just such a vast amount of change. I really rate the fact that Aston Villa fans seem to be kind of going, well, we ended the trophy drought, we conquered the mountain, we've still got Unai Emery, so let's just see what happens. Let's not bother or worry about getting all panicky now. We lost our first, you know, we got no points in the first five games last season. It still was brilliant. So let's just see what happens.

45:05I really, really rate that. but as an outsider there are red flags about that squad. I understand you might as well do the overhaul in one window if UEFA rulings mean that you have to shed a lot of money from the squad but it's a huge amount of experience. I think they will finish bottom half. That's my kind of hot take this season. Daniel, there's one team we haven't mentioned isn't there? The Toffees. Everton. What should we have said about Everton? I think even Everton fans would accept that there's a reason. The most notable thing about Everton this summer is that one of their fans is now the prime minister, right?

45:39That's like the only thing that's happening. It just feels really quiet. They've still not signed a right back despite needing one for about five and a half years. I think there is a route whereby this is David Moyes' last season and he goes to manage Scotland or something as his next job. It all just feels a bit tired and what they don't have is the newness of the Hill Dickinson and that is a kind of motivating force behind supporters that second season syndrome in a stadium i think is a thing so i'm yeah i'm interested they they need to do quite a lot of business i think they won't go down it's just that you can see another 13th or 11th to 14th season which doesn't inspire anyone which is why we forgot about them their third bottom on the hopeometer which are they now feels about right so because there were there was a point after maybe three or four months of last season when it felt good at Everton right it felt like things were progressing and Grealish was assisting goals and you know Dewsbury Hall was playing really well and it felt like they were really progressing to a new identity and just sort of fell away in the closing few months I do think the hopeometer is quite funny in the sense that a team that starts badly and then improves like Leeds they're top a team like Everton who actually started fine but then fell away it really lingers over a summer and I think it can really impact the team in the following season.

47:00But for now, they've kept Illyman and Jai, right? Which I think is huge. They've signed Brennan Johnson, which was a strange swap deal. And I really hope that he can get back to the form he showed when he was at his best for Nottingham Forest, to be honest. Yes, he scored a lot of goals at Spurs, but I think he was at his flying best on the wing back when he was playing at Nottingham Forest. But, you know, Duncan said it, players like Dewsbury Hall, they're still a good core there. It just might not be enough to take them to the next level that Everton fans have been desperate for for the last few years.

47:33And Tyler Dibbling might come good. I mean, I'd sort of forgotten he'd gone there. But I remember when Dibbling first popped up in the Premier League with Southampton. He looked like a really, really exciting young player. I think lots of teams wanted to get him. Am I right in thinking that he'd been at Chelsea originally, then had gone back to Southampton? So it had a slightly strange development route. but yeah, it'd be good to see him get more minutes and sort of show the potential that he first showed us all when he was at Southampton. My word, my word. Well, I tell you what, it's enough material for clubs to be clipping up for now.

48:08Let's park it there because the season is going to get underway on Friday with Coventry against Arsenal. That's at the Emirates, I believe, is it not? Yes, it is. Sunday night, we'll be rounding up the nine matches that will have taken place. In the first of our Sunday night live shows, do join us for that on YouTube or catch it afterwards either on YouTube or your usual podcast provider. For now, Daniel, it's great to see you again. Looking forward to you. Are you joining us on Sunday evening? I am indeed. Yay. Fantastic. Jay, looking forward to seeing you as the season progresses. And Duncan, you're back with us on Saturday, I think, for our first Totally Extra.

48:51And Sunday. And Sunday too. You can't get rid of me. Sorry. Damn. All right. Listener, viewer, thank you so much for being with us. I hope you'll be with us for those shows and others as another exciting footballing adventure gets underway for now. Thanks to Daniel, to Duncan, to Jay, and everybody in the production booth and you. And we'll be back with you Saturday. Do join us then from all of us here in the meanwhile. It's goodbye.

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