Two very different takes on what the Budget adds up to!

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1:25and i'm up in manchester comma in manchester comma in manchester well look let's start with agreeing or something um if if we wanted a big bang that wasn't it was it no i mean i uh i don't really know how far to go on this because i'm so disappointed and dismayed oh really okay oh yeah yeah i am um that uh i don't want to over egg it because i realize that you know um we want to keep morale up and all that um and i do can you make the case for the prosecution matt no i'll try and defend all right well you asked okay so this um well look on sunday in the q a we were saying preemptively that we were disappointed that we had we'd read the briefings which turned out to be entirely correct, that John Healy was not going to bring capital gains tax rates into alignment with income tax rates.

2:26And also that we were concerned that the budget might turn out not to have any big swings. I think you mentioned quite rightly that it might not speak to the younger generation. And generally it would be incrementalist, technocratic, steady as she goes. and to call what that was all that is at the upper end of the the analysis i think um i mean it was presentation isn't everything but it was i think the most boring budget since alistair darlings in i think it was 2009 when his mother fell asleep during in the in the balcony um but i mean that's that's that's just delivery and you know john ely would never pretend to be a sort of communicator on the level of vandy burnham which is fine um i don't think that matters so much but i did feel that kevin may not landed a punch with the three words is that it yes um because it really was it wasn't just steady as she goes it was anemic and i've you know i i've read already some and some of the defenses of it it didn't have anything to trouble the plp went down well with the bond market but that's exactly what we said on sunday that we hoped it wouldn't be those things we hoped it would have at least some sort of vision and ambition and um and and frankly to take some risks because you know we've just got rid of a prime minister with a 170 seat working majority midterm which is quite a big thing to do yeah on a promise of you know all these things that burnham said a circuit breaker for britain and a complete rewiring of economic and political power in britain and i think and i know that you know it's only three months in and all that but i don't think you can start from that position and then deliver a first budget like that not now not in 2026 maybe there was a time when you could sort of have a long incrementalist strategy but politics don't work like that no no more it really doesn't and I was very troubled by it.

4:34Yeah, I mean, look, absolutely fair enough, and I suspect that will be the consensus view, and I understand why. And I thought, you know, just on Badenock, I thought she did really well in her riposte. We were listening to it in the car on the way up to Manchester. Right, right. On the radio, and my wife just kept saying, is exactly that, is that it? Is that it? Is that it? And then Badeknocht came on and articulated that word for word. And she went exactly and then started making jokes about, oh, I bet Putin's really scared now. And so I mean, that's good. That is knockabout. Yeah. But I thought she she played to her strengths, which is knockabout.

5:17Yeah. You know, and it was it was a budget that invited some knockabout attack. Yeah. In its defense, there was there were things in the that I mean he spoke about tactics and strategy didn't he in other words he said look these are the things we want to do now that give people breathing space thing bigger coming down the line at a later date and I suspect that this agreement will be on impact and timing and yeah and the you know if if burnham's critics want to point to something and say you promised us the circuit breaker you promised us the rewiring of british politics and you ended up listing out a bunch of small scale incremental non uh non uh material changes to day-to-day living, where was the big swing, as you put it?

6:22It wasn't there. So the only thing I can fall back on and hope is that it is just a matter of timing and that it's about the spending review, it's about the EU summit, it's about, you know, there have been promises or indications of big swings to come. You know, I mean, look, this week has been dominated by talks of freedom of movement. I mean, that is for sure. That's an enormous swing. And there were things in this budget. I think the media class us will will recoil from it and say, come on, where's the massive headline we were hoping for? But I think, you know, if you're one of 70 ,000 small businesses, right?

7:02I mean, you know, as well as I do, I've just taken out a lease on our first office and I had to find an office that had a rateable value of under 12 ,000 quid, which in the Kings Cross area where we are are few and far between. It's now 18 ,000 quid. That's a big deal. They've lifted 70 ,000 small, medium businesses out of business rates altogether. That's not nothing. It's not nothing that they've raised the minimum wage. It's not nothing that they are talking about redressing the welfare system. But it is it's nor is it a big swing. You know what? What I think a lot of people were hoping for was the hard thing for Labour to say, which is welfare is out of control.

7:50And we're going to have to consider and address that. Taxes, taxes that would be unpopular with people. I mean, no one cares if the banks are taxed. And by the way, no, I thought I mean, I thought that was good, to be honest. No, no, no. I said no, no one thinks no one cares. No, what I mean is that's that was fine. Right. That's that's what you mean. It's not. No, I see. It's not controversial. You know, if anything, he could have gone further. It's only it's only 15 months. But, you know, no one minds if landlords or banks or anything. That's fine. That's sort of that's proof. But, you know, wealth tax and CGT would start to get into the sort of mush of people's real lives.

8:30and um there was some you know there was some retail things in it which were fine like the 100 i mean the 100 pound council tax rebate for those in bands a to c that's good it's a day crashed the as an energy help that crashed the site so that proves people liked it immediately and you know the first time by isa's nice and um you know there's the the the um there's some there were some nice things like i think that they're getting their heads around have data center ai data centers having to be yeah suitable for communities that was promising but you know it it was it was to adapt churchill a very small pudding without a theme and i you know i think the the part of the just you wait you know here comes a 10-year plan here comes the spending review here comes the milburn review here comes a tim's review on on welfare you know i think he i think he may be missing a big point about modern politics about in which he is ostensibly very good burden which is that you don't get much of a chance right you know he's got a big bounce at the moment i mean it's actually it's it's it's 10 points in some cases eight in others you know they're really fine it's good but that window of opportunity where the public look and go, what do we make of them?

9:55Right. It will slam shut. And there is a risk that by the time the spending review happens, for example, people won't be paying any attention. By then, the off-gen cap will have risen. People will be paying a lot more on their energy bills. It looks like, well, we know from the OBR that growth has been downgraded to 1%, which means that every single pound of any form of pay rise will be swallowed up by inflation. So people are facing a real terms pay decrease next year on top of the fact that the tax allowance rates are being frozen again, which is fair enough. But it does mean that people's real experience of economic life is going to be very hard next year.

10:41yeah so he they've deferred all these decisions to a moment when people will be that much more skeptical because they'll say hang on you know you you came in with all these promises with your stone roses t-shirt and you're you know aren't radical new staff brilliant and um here we are a year later and you're still well hold on no no no no it's three months later come on let's be no no no no no i'm saying later down the line i'm saying that is deferring things to a point where the public may not be as receptive as they are now you see i think that that's the point matt i think this is what's driving this timid approach is they know that it's going to it's going to be really hard january february march it's going to be tough and they're trying to do tactically they're trying to do what they can to make that as easy as it can be uh and then the spending review will come in and then perhaps a big conversation around the eu you know what i I suppose what I'm saying is that, OK, we gather from sources that election is death.

11:43Early election is definitely off the cards. Well, so I'm so I'm told by a couple of people. No, I believe you. It's not even. I'm so glad. Let me just spell it out to people. I'm told it's not even in the conversation. And I believe that, you know, because that's consistent with what has been the case for quite a while now. So let's let's assume that's the case anyway. Well, reform is on the floor and the Greens are reeling. But but nothing is for certain. You know, the convergence of factors at the moment is very good. New prime minister. Public seem to like him. Farage all over the place. Polanski all over the place.

12:25There's never, you know, as I say, favorable conditions never arrive. Right. The phrase which really bothered me most, and this may be controversial, I don't know, was when this until the storm passes. Right. Because that assumes in an era that is whose defining characteristic is volatility. you know the era of the crash of covid of brexit of ukraine of gaza of iran that there is at some point in the not too distant future going to be a great calming on the geopolitical scene and this i think is a this plays into a an actually a deadly assumption in the liberal mindset which is that there's a sort of tendency to resume normality at some point you cannot think like that if you are trying to get a center-left party re-elected it might be right but it bloody well might not be you know the the long tail of iran and ukraine which shows no signs of ending is going to go on indefinitely so if your argument is well let's hunker down until the storm passes see you in 2040 you know yeah i mean i i heard that differently um i heard it because he just prior to that sentence he said you know normally you talk about headwinds now we're talking about a world face you know in the middle of a storm and when when he talked about when the storm passes i well i i didn't think he thought it was going to go back to sunshine and you know darling buds of may i did but i thought it meant it would just be reduced back to headwinds you know like that that we're facing an acute we're facing an acute situation well it is a a possible reading of that that we're he was saying we're facing a very acute situation right now as you could have argued during covid for instance that covid would pass at some point which it did and and that doesn't negate the possibility of another storm of covid or some kind of pandemic arriving but he's saying right now we're in the middle of a storm and at some point you know unless we are believing we're in an Orwellian hermold well I don't mean that no but but it's well then that's fair enough for him to say at some point conditions will improve but as a fact but that is that is the difference between optimism and hope optimism is based on on on a very dangerous or progress if you want on a very dangerous assumption that things do get better and you have to work on the basis which is what hope is based on which is that they might not and a good chancellor will be taking radical steps for that potential future as well as working on the basis that the storm will pass and what i do think is look these are the things that healy did today are exactly exactly the things that we used to condemn starmer and reeves for doing i mean they are they're incremental they're technocratic they're tactical you know they are very carefully geared to the plp in the bond market when they stepped out of line with the plp they roll back immediately you know what when is the moment of challenge when is the moment when actually burnham goes out on a branch, you know, and and take some serious risk.

15:44And I don't mean in speeches and I don't mean in interviews. I mean, actually, in terms of hard strategy and policy, because what I see at the moment is he is a sensational communicator. I mean, and that's not nothing, by the way, that is a really big deal. You know, hats off. So he's. Incredible achievement. He's broken the crust of the Brexit paralysis, you know, like magic. But it isn't magic. It's actually very hard to do. And he's done that. But, you know, he's also we now have to see what that amounts to. And what this makes me worry about is, well, is it all piss and wind? Right. I don't know.

16:21I hope. Look, it's early. Let me just try and contextualize where I feel more optimistic, if you want, and hopeful, but more optimistic. is that that I know everyone's saying, oh, he's opened his mouth and put his foot in it about freedom of movement. No, I don't. I don't believe that. I think it's absolutely calculated, deliberate, courageous and brave. And I think that that's my point. That is the conversation that leads to something absolutely material in changing this country's fortunes. So what I don't necessarily feel like stamping all over John Healy's budget about is is is is looking at that in isolation and saying, well, where is it?

17:05I think you've got to put it in the context of a broader scene of of big conversations happening germinally, but they are starting to happen. Go on. Well, I just, yeah, OK, but I just feel I'm going to this made me worry. I'm, you know, and I hope to be proven very badly wrong. And believe me, this is one occasion where I would be glad to eat my hat because I want this to work. But I did feel like this is this isn't just, you know, this is a promissory note. Barely. I mean, the best hope they have is that nobody notices this happen. Yes, but Matt, is it possible that that is exactly what they want?

17:51That they've sat down and said, now is not the time, we're three months in, we might be a bit up in the poles, but that can evaporate on an absolute sixpence. now is not the time to turn the horse cart upside down we'll do that in the future when we've when we have narrated our story a little bit better i also think the other thing that i was told is that there's a sense there's a feeling from burnham himself in that he's got to prove himself legislatively he's got to everything is starmer's uh work that he's dealing with that he wants to feel he can enact change in his own right put legislation down and bring the party with him and and this is where the sense that an early election is not what's in anybody's head in Downing Street because they want the three years to prove it out now I you know I honestly I completely get your sense of well outraged frustration I don't know how you categorize but but of of borderline despair but i i do feel like if if we all take a step back and just look at the bigger picture not get hung up on the budget today there are big indications of big swings coming yeah but you see it's it's the big picture that i think about all the time you see i give zero i mean you know this is being completely honest i give zero fucks about the labor party right zero i don't care as far as i'm concerned they're just a delivery system for where the country has to go or not so my hope with burnham after and you know it's a big price to get rid of a sitting prime minister with a with a big majority you know that was a big deal yeah so it has to be worth it you know he has a he there's a credit card bill yeah from the you know from uk plc to him where he has to pay it off in spades this is not just the andy burnham show right and it's not just the bloody labor party show you know with their internal machinations and and the way that they do things and their their way fine if they can make it work i'll love them to death but if they can't it's a bloody dangerous world out there but what i don't understand i still don't understand forgive me is is there's a sort of catastrophizing in your narrative that i don't understand because you know as of we you know as of last week we were all saying the talk the conversation around europe is fantastic the conversation around you know he seems to get it the conversation around the country about a total change of direction and to put the burden of all of that onto today's budget seems unreasonable to me and well i'm not putting all of the burden but I was hoping for more.

20:42And as I said, we did agree on Sunday that we were hoping for more. And and and also I think that and here I do hold Labour and indeed most of the mainstream political class hugely accountable is I just don't think they understand how 21st century hyperpolitics works. You know, they look at Lula, they look at Netanyahu's, you know, apparent likelihood to fall. They look at Trump's, the Trump era apparently coming to an end and they think, phew, right? Whereas I look at this and think Le Pen, you know, AFD, it's still there. And populism, just because it has setbacks, has changed the rules of the game and the road in a way that will not just be corrected.

21:28Now, is Burnham the best person to take this on? Almost certainly. Right. So that's good. But I just think that thinking about a budget like this purely in terms of a sort of spreadsheet to victory is not enough anymore because politics is about spectacle. It is about impact. And when he came in with Makerfield and then arriving, you know, at number 10 and the tremendous speech he gave at Labour, he's great at that. Right. And I, by the way, completely on board with everything you said about him and Europe. I think he knows exactly what he's doing. And on that front, I'm, you know, very optimistic.

22:12I think that, you know, things are looking better than they have in 10 years. I really I really do. and I don't you know but this seemed to me to be really really thin gruel and I think that that is more risky than taking a few risks would have been now I'm more than ready to be proven wrong maybe it will just whoosh by and before you know it will have the Milburn review and the Tim's review and then it'll be the 10-year plan and then the spending review in a year from now That'll be what we worried about, Matt. And on this occasion, I'd be thrilled to be wrong. You know, it really works. What do you think?

22:50I mean, apart from a load of lousy headlines, which are inevitable anyway. Maybe. In the Times and the Telegraph and et cetera, et cetera. Tomorrow. What is the, what do you think is the concrete negative consequence of that budget? If, if, and this is my hope, if the biggest swings are to come in the spending review and or and at the eu uk summit because um i mean who's who because i my my one of my principles in life is to if an opportunity arises take it you know just saying i mean maybe those big swings will arrive right but maybe they won't and politics by the time of the spending review could be very different you know um i just think when you have a but budgets are one of the few set pieces where the public is, as it were, even if they're not watching it, sort of comes together.

23:48It's not like an election, but it is a moment where the public sort of looks up from what it's doing and goes, oh, yeah, right. Now, all I'm saying is that for me, you know, I'm just speaking for myself, citizen Matt, that was a drastically squandered opportunity to keep changing the conversation. It was, you know, a very boring man announcing very boring things. And I can already read the pieces that are going to be written in its defence saying, that's exactly what we need right now. But those pieces were written about Starmer when he came in, which is the grown-ups are back in the room. You wait, you know, he needs to get things back on an even keel and then he can do really good things.

24:26And I just feel, I felt for the first time since Burnham won Makerfield when I felt an exhilaration I hadn't felt for a long time. And he's, you know, played a pretty, you know, I'm not, I'm not, I don't resolve for the base, but a pretty, pretty cool bat ever since. I felt, uh-oh, you know, is this going to be okay? Yeah. Now, maybe a week from today it'll all be forgotten. And what is good, I suppose, if it's really half full, is there's so little in it that it won't unravel. Right. Yeah, yeah. You know, okay. I mean, if I'm so forced against the wall to say, hey, you know, forward to glory.

25:06But, you know, that that seems to me a pretty sort of lackluster reason for excitement. And I do think that, unfortunately, you see, one of the problems is we're Gen X guys. Right. We came up in an era of strategy and this follows that follows this follows that. Right. And the great experiment of our sort of coming of age era was was the incredible new labor experiment, which we began with Neil, dipped a bit during John Smith and then surged into the astonishing success of Barry Brown and, you know, 13 years in government. It was amazing. Politics isn't like that now. New Labour was an end, not a beginning.

25:44And I just worry that a lot of people who are sort of at the helm of this or advising it are still living in the period 1997 to 2010. And I just personally feel that politics now, global politics, not national politics, the whole thing is so much more dangerous and so much more volatile. it really is and okay can we just go backwards a little bit and what what can we explore what is the purpose of that budget what is it what what what should it achieve that well because it was the first there's a specific point here because it's the first budget of a of a new government that came into power very unusual circumstances in my view it ought to have been a very clear and you know it should have been a big graffiti slogan on the wall of the polity saying this is what we believe right this is really where we're going this is the big stuff um and i mean in a sense i was just disappointed that yes there were some promises of some big swings but they were very muted i mean it was more sort of yeah you know i'll i mean i even his even on defense right I wondered to myself in a kind of weird counterfactual, would John Healy, the defence secretary, have resigned from the government if you'd heard that announcement?

27:10Right. Because he sort of said, yeah, we'll get to three percent by 2030. And I'm going to I'm going to lay that out in one of my big swings coming up. Right. When you see those swings, hey, they're big. Right. And I thought he probably would have resigned. And I thought, this is this is insanity. We're going backwards, not going backwards. But, you know, the whole point of Healy at the Treasury was that he would that was locked in. He thought, right, well, 30 percent, 20, 30, 3 percent done, you know, not quite. Yeah. And I just I that's all. OK, so let's accept that and say that it definitely disappointed in that regard that this was not a budget that usurped the Labour manifesto.

27:55on which they were elected and that and that is a big problem for them isn't it it is yeah it is is that they feel you can't have your cake and eat it here you either have your general election early and you lose which is why i backed the kelly plan to my dying day and and you know well that i i agree with you i think now is the time you know how is the time it's never it may well never get better that's my point but if it if that's my whole point if they've decided that they're uncertain and and for whatever whatever their rationale is they're not going to do the early election and they're going to leave it three years then it kind of makes that budget it is a nothing burger and it could never be anything other than a nothing burger because it is going to be incremental uh it's going to be retail politics it's going to be the the thing that we all said was going to be great about burnham as well as his his desire to rip off the plaster was just presentationally he would get it right and i think you know he if you compare healy to reeves into if reeves had delivered that budget yesterday well there'd be no one would defend it because presentationally it would have just why because i mean actually you know her presentation was considerably better than is well i did i disagree i sort of maybe it's because i was listening to it on the rate and i mean this is this is a genuine point maybe it's because i was listening to it and wasn't looking at this he looks like a keen rotarian giving a branch treasury account by the way the economist uh social media team calling him is he just a slap you know a slap no it's ridiculous incredible anyway that's just that that's like rachel but you see that you know rachel from accounts my point is yeah they're both terrible communicators but i don't see why he's so great well i didn't no i definitely didn't say he was great but what i said was that there was a what i feel is that there was a message there that he did articulate clearly that this is i mean breathing space is the the key the truth is maybe it was breathing space they wanted for themselves not necessarily for the country but if but i know that's a luxury you can't afford well yeah but maybe they've taken the political calculus well maybe they have i mean Well, we can afford it for six.

30:15Well, look, I mean, here's here's here's the deal, as Mr. Biden would say, if he was still able to say anything.

30:25Maybe they're right. There's some very, very clever men, very, very clever women in number 10. And what do I know? You know, I'm just a newspaper polemicist. Right. But well, well, and that was that that was directed at me. That was another direct quote, but it was it was directed at me, not you. is said, you know, governing Britain in 2026 is a lot harder than writing newspaper polemics. And they're right. They're right. Yeah, but we didn't choose to govern Britain. I mean, this is a lot. They are right. They are right. It is a very fraught, sensitive, fragile environment right now. If a Tory spin doctor had said that to you, you'd have told them to go fuck themselves.

31:07And rightly so. You would not have gone, oh, that's a good point. right to be fair i didn't say that now i did pretty much say i'm just teasing you but what i mean is what a fucking stupid point because it is look of course look i know being a newspaper polemicist isn't the same as governing the country just as i know that being a brain surgeon isn't the same as governing the country you know i i've done all my reading for some while i don't have to have that pointed out but one of the reasons that i chose to be a newspaper polemicist or whatever the fuck it is I do for a living, you know, is because I know I wouldn't be any good at governing the country.

31:41But these people who choose to govern the country do choose to govern the country. And one of the things in the Labour Party sort of mindset, and it was there in the Tories as well, but it's very strong in the Labour DNA, is, well, you guys just don't get how hard it is to govern the country. I don't care. You chose to govern the country, right? No one forced you to. No one forced government to do it. That's a point taken, obviously. It's a stupid point, you know. It is, but I think the real point that we're trying to make is that... Is blame the media, like they always do for everything, day for the Telegraph.

32:17It's the usual script. Matt, no, I don't think that's the point they were trying to make. I think the point they were trying to make is it's more complicated than you're making out. And I think we both... Of course it is. We know that. But in that in that case, if we're readily admitting that it's more complicated and that there is not be deferential. Well, no, but we should probably be a little more considered in, you know, damning. You know what? I'm done being considered in this sense that, you know, we had two years of near catastrophe. i mean we were staring down the barrel of a far-right government now we're not now for two reasons really one is burnham's good no doubt about it yeah and the second is that farage is i think you know his his activities and his character is catching up with him yeah right right but things can change you know it doesn't the the populist milieu is is now much big i think reform is farage right i think that's true but i don't buy the line that once farage is vaporized the whole problem goes away and i think no one sensible really claims that so i think it's much more delicately balanced than is often assumed and that's why i have i'm i'm so neuralgic about this particular period because i'm i'm sort of thinking yeah yeah you know and i was thrilled when when burnham said about that freedom of the movement stuff it's like wow yeah great great great because now it's out now it's out the now it's out the box you know we're having a conversation about it um and obviously for us uh tnw as for tne you know this is huge i mean i don't want to detract for that for a minute but i i do feel that a budget is a major, major moment, especially under these circumstances.

34:16And for me, anyway, it was deeply worrying. Maybe in a week, I'll think, oh, I was worried about nothing. Who knows? Listen, let's take a very quick break and talk about, well, we can talk more about the budget, also more about the EU summit coming up and what this conversation is. Let's do that. The movement adds.

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36:01uh and something else completely different you know or maybe a stroke of tactical genius we don't know i mean it's interesting isn't it you know you mentioned farage in the last few minutes there i think if we were doing this podcast nine months ago we'd have mentioned farage within the first 30 seconds yeah that's that's a completely fair point and i listened to i caught a snapshot at farage's um press conference on i've flicked over to see yeah gb news and dawn neeson was what her take on on the budget was well we i must know entirely entirely predictably negative but for arge's press conference i can't even remember what he was talking about i mean he got he went straight down into the weeds on i think on on you know minimum wage and stuff like this and i thought god here's a man who really feels like he has lost his his rudder you know and and by the way in that context i increasingly think that the achilles heel of the populist right is not bigotry as awful as their bigotry is but corruption yes broadly understood you know in the sense that that once they are obviously on the take um oligarchs rather than populist tribunes that's the common you know it was that's what happened in brazil that's what i think is going to happen in in america that's definitely what happened in hungary yeah and and it's that sense of hang on a minute you guys don't care about me at all you're just lining your own pockets a very powerful message when people are feeling the pinch and i think it's very very there's rich terrain that and i and i think there's another um characteristic of of of populist or nativist populist authoritarians is is that they well this is the authoritarianism and this yeah this this you know uh reluctance to face scrutiny you know because it's in their character it's not just of course it's not policy it's them that's what they're in it for and you can see uh when farage is is being tested now increasingly that he bristles and bristles he can't help himself you know so so anyway his his vulnerability but his star is definitely yeah but but to your broader point that that doesn't signify the end of um of the populist pickle we're in or facing and And it surprised me the way that Burnham came at the problem, the opportunity of Europe, directly through freedom of movement.

38:29Maybe you talk about the customs union, maybe a sort of slow progression back to a seat around the table. But to specify freedom of movement is either absolute madness or the stroke of genius. because if if you said to it it's the thing it's the strange crux of the issue isn't it because it's it's the thing everybody loves and misses about europe and it's also the thing everybody feared about europe so meant i thought it was brilliant and two reasons why the first is precisely because it wasn't going along the sort of um and i've been guilty of this by the way which is the sort of steady as she goes customs union first single market first you know he goes straight on he leaps up and down on the third rail yes you're never meant to you go hey freedom from movement freedom you're the one thing yes that every red wall labor mp has said don't ever mention it ever ever ever but then and this is where you know he is he's a cunning bastard he really is um he frames it in a way which is very very seriously uh it gets some traction shall we say in places that don't normally you know love europe which is hey you know the boris wave was all these people from outside europe coming in right whereas this would be people from inside europe coming in now i don't know what was going through his head i'm not a mind reader right but i've got a pretty good idea of how that might have landed in certain parts which is hang on a minute So, oh, God, what you mean is.

40:06Yeah. And and. Well, let's spell that out. What he what he means is fewer brown in this Asian subcontinent people coming in and more white Polish. Yes. And only and only for shorter periods, because what he's saying is and he's right, is that the great thing about freedom of movement is people come to be a plumber on sparks or whatever. and then they go home you know or or not but i mean that that and the other thing which is a a more sophisticated argument but i think we both list upon it in the conference speech and i think it's terribly important to his his bid for for another term is appropriating the take back control yes line because what he's also saying and of course he's right is that you know what brexit it has shown is you can't you can't control immigration outside the eu or rather the eu for all its problems and and you've rightly said that you know freedom of movement will have to be reformed and burnham said that too is actually a much better mechanism for managing migration than being quote unquote a sovereign nation which just is has turned into a complete managerial bin fire you know irrespective of the very sensitive and often toxic politics associated with it no no no i thought it was extraordinary because i mean there's no two ways about it unless he said it in a totally unthinking way which he never i don't think he ever says anything in a totally unthinking way then you know a real hard line critique of that would be to say well it is it's grounded in a form of bigotry to say you know we'll have europeans not people from outside europe you know yeah it's yeah no i mean you know there's no getting around that was part of the implication but the other thing in it which was this was in the sunday times profile of ben riley smith it was actually a very interesting piece and um cobbled together from various interviews which i think he had quite a job getting burnham to sit down but it was worth it And then Burnham just said, en passant, and I won't be joining Schengen or the Euro.

42:12And I thought that is, I mean, because freedom of movement was the headline, but in any other circumstance, no Schengen, no Euro would have been a massive story because it was always assumed that if we were to be allowed a seat at top table in the EU in some shape or form, again we you know sorry guys you're gonna have to accept sheng and the euro and all that and obviously i mean tell me if you disagree but it seems to me that that was a prime minister who asked his counterparts in the eu would it be okay if we and they'd said yeah you can have your you can have your cutouts which is amazing i i i took huge heart from that because i think i mean because i thought if that's if johnny i mean forget the shengen i don't think most people really get their But the minute you say to somebody, we're going to join the euro, forget about it.

43:06Nobody. And I don't care what the logical, rational argument doesn't matter. You know, nobody in the UK, no, no majority of UK people are ever going to say get rid of the pound. And it all started with keep the pound, you know, I mean, honestly, in the 1990s. So that in a sense, he was just stating the bleeding obvious and I'm putting it out there on record, which I thought that was great. But to your point, I thought it was great because, you know, this is massive summit coming up and he knows what the conversation is. He's having conversations all the time. So that conversation's clearly been had.

43:43We've had the Macron and the French finance minister all saying, literally saying, come back whenever the lion. You know, everyone is I mean, they're queuing up. I mean, it is actually I mean, talk about I know it's a cliche now from your favorite author. but you know gradually then suddenly but i i you know whilst it will not be easy i think it might be simple if that makes any sense because all it required it turns out no that's an exaggeration but the most important step was as in most things the first which was after years of saying the you know make brexit work which is oxymoronic um as well as moronic you know uh just saying yeah this isn't working uh actually i'm i'm quite tempted to have another go at freedom of movement and the great thing was it it sent 100 000 volts coursing through the political system everyone sat up and went what yeah did he say that you know and actually most people as far as i could work i I mean, obviously, you know, Telegraph and so on said Brexit betrayal.

44:51But the trouble with Brexit betrayal as a line is that there is a Brexit now that you can assess, whereas Brexit in 2016 was just a word salad. You know, one minute it was a bus. The next it was migration control. It was whenever you wanted. But now it's something that hasn't worked. So it doesn't it's not quite as persuasive that. No, I think when people hear the words Brexit betrayal, well, two thirds of you in this country are thinking good, betray it as soon as we possibly can. Exactly. You know, what's wrong with betraying a lousy idea? So, look, let's just wrap it up a little bit, because I feel like maybe we could agree on this.

45:29If in three weeks at this UK-EU summit, there's something really positive and material that puts us back on a path, forget about the notion of joining the EU per se, But say what it adds up to is an economic destination, a destination that it's a means towards the end. And the end isn't joining the EU. The end is a purpose for Britain and growth, economic growth for this nation. Then that if that's what happens in three weeks, then that puts today into it's a footnote. in terms of something in those circumstances to quote the great uncle monty from wisnell and i a film we both like um i will prepare myself to forgive him i mean look sherry well should we have on that point we should do sherry sherry sherry sherry sherry sherry no i mean you're right you're but you're right man i mean obviously um look uh you know you catch me in a special post-budget angry mood but if uh november the 20th comes and he says anything like that yeah then christmas starts early for me good all right listen before we we go i want to say thank you to all of the two mats listeners and the new subscribers who turned up on uh what was turned out to be i thought it was a wonderful event it was fantastic the great michelle hussein um and and talking interviewing obviously alistair campbell about his book per civilians and um the first half was brilliant where michelle uh interviewed alistair really really well across a whole range of themes yeah but i thought the second half where the audience asked their questions great wasn't it you know matt i was we had this device with a sort of qr code on the big screen yeah what would you like to ask alistair and it was complicated You had to fill in your name and get onto the Wi-Fi.

47:39We had 185 questions sent in during the interval from people who. So there's a real hunger, I think, to discuss this kind of thing. Oh, yeah. And what was what was brilliant, I thought about it. And, you know, fair play to Alistair as well. And fair play to Michelle for interviewing him so brilliantly. but he he did he did and as indeed the book does um blend his you know unparalleled political knowledge and experience as a as a professional and then and then a commentator with lots and lots of often very um very personal yes observations and i thought it was very it was an extraordinary evening and i'd forgotten how it's a big venue you know it really is massive And we pretty much sold it out.

48:30It was incredible. I mean, I felt very excited. I mean, it obviously just excited me about, I was pleased for him and for you, but also I was pleased for the new world. Yes. Because I think, you know, and grateful to the readers and very optimistic about the future, to use a word of optimism that I rarely use. Thank you. That's lovely to hear. Lovely to hear. No, it was wonderful. like i you know i just chatting to people in in the bar before and um there is a community out there yeah that is represented by our wonderful readers you know the thing they are committed matt the thing that came through time and time again was people feeling like i feel like like the tide's with us now that phrase was used to me on that night i mean obviously you come off a really nice night like that full of energy and enthusiasm and stuff but a lot of people said that and i felt it too that the tide was with us and with all of the caveats about you know complacency and and uh understanding that we're still up against a massive battle i do feel that in the last 18 months six months year year or so it's swollen a little bit this feeling yeah the things we thought were impossible are no longer impossible yeah well you can get there you know that's right and you know as a professional buzz killer right somebody devotes much of each story to thinking how can he ruin someone's contentment and happiness um because someone's got to do it uh i i don't know i agree with you i i came away feeling um you know really really upbeat and And I think that, you know, just as a writer for the magazine, and very glad to be one, I'm very grateful to you and to the subscribers, actually, and the people that came for making all this possible, because it is an independent magazine.

50:29It doesn't have a, you know, a great tycoon owner. And that's what makes it, it's moments like that that make it fantastic. You know, every time I go onto the Guardian website, Right. And that bloody little pop up comes up with where it says, look, look what we're up against. And I think you've got you've literally got one point three billion pounds in the bank. Yes, I don't really got that. I don't think it's nothing terribly, terribly sad for them as they're in their plight. Anyway, so Alistair very kindly at the end of it said, you know, he cited he said, well, what's per civilians? You know, it's taking a problem and a challenge and deciding you're going to do something positive about it and moving and relentless in your energy to do that.

51:18And he said the new world is a perfect example. So I was very happy to hear that. And folks, obviously, this is all the longest lead into me saying, come and subscribe and help us do more of this. And if you feel like the tide is turning and you want us to help. Well, you want to help make it help make it turn faster than supporting our journalism. I honestly think Alistair said this to me, said, you guys, you had a real impact on keeping the Brexit conversation alive when everybody else just wanted to forget about it. That was the problem. He said, you guys at the new European as you were then and today at the new world, you had a real impact in keeping that conversation going.

51:54And I honestly think that is is is good journalism. And if you want to help supporters, the best way to do it is to subscribe. and right now if you subscribe you get a free copy signed by Alistair of Percivillians so go to thenewworld.co.uk forward slash two mats that's the number two m-a-t-t-s and get a whole year of the new world plus a free signed copy of Percivillians from 52 quid right pound a week not bad I think that's a pretty good value not just for the journalism but what it the journalism achieves so thank you for that thank you for all of your questions uh from cadogan hall send in your questions please for sunday's q a um to two mats at tne publishing.com lastly thank you to the third map matt with us for producing this special wednesday budget show um thanks matt until sunday see you then until sunday it's goodbye from him it's goodbye for me you see i I wasn't sure what the form was on a special episode.

52:55You didn't give me my... I don't think there are rules. Okay. It's goodbye from me. It's goodbye from him. Goodbye. Goodbye.

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