Marchand on the NFL’s Media Chessboard

24:10I think, you know, and again, not with the NFL as much because they're one-off games that people will find. But I do think if you're, and we saw it with baseball's latest deals, you know, where they got NBC and Peacock, you know, less Peacock, but NBC in the mix, Netflix in the mix, which is not necessarily my point here, but is that making it easy for people is, Again, they're going to always take the money at the end of the day. But making it easy for people to access your sport is very important. And I think we see that. We saw that with Apple and MLS. We've seen that with baseball, with the plethora of deals they've done.

24:56And you tell people it's hard. I'm going to make it hard for you to find this. they'll find something else to do, especially now where with our phones and with the media environment, there's a million other things to do. And so, and easy to access. And so I think that's something you have to really think about, you know, in terms of distribution, which the NFL always emphasizes how much they value distribution. But that's because they're the most, it's easy to say that. It's easy to get everything you want. It's not like the other leagues don't know this. They do know this. They just don't have as dominant a position when it comes to sports viewing of their live games as compared to the NFL.

25:36So they can say this stuff and seem smarter because then they actually do it, but that's because they have the cards.

25:49Andrew Marchand:This episode is brought to you by Progressive. Most of you aren't just listening right now. You're driving, cleaning, and even exercising. But what if you could be saving money by switching to Progressive? Drivers who save by switching save nearly$750 on average. And auto customers qualify for an average of seven discounts. Multitask right now. Quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. National average 12-month savings of$744 by new customers surveyed who saved with Progressive between June 2022 and May 2023. Potential savings will vary. Discounts not available in all states and situations.

26:25Andrew Marchand:If you've used Babbel, you would. Babbel's conversation-based technique teaches you useful words and phrases to get you speaking quickly about the things you actually talk about in the real world. With lessons handcrafted by over 200 language experts and voiced by real native speakers, Babbel is like having a private tutor in your pocket. Start speaking with Babbel today. Get up to 55 % off your Babbel subscription right now at babbel.com slash listen. Spelled B-A-B-B-E-L dot com slash listen. Rules and restrictions may apply.

26:59Andrew Marchand:All right, prediction time. I'll start. I don't see any of the current linear channels losing their packages. I think they all renew their packages. I do think the Sunday afternoon packages, you're going to see the NFL take some games out of them. So you're going to have a lot less of the overlapping games. And they're not going to turn that into a full season package, but they're going to sell the event-tized type games to Netflix. I can see YouTube coming up. If you're taking games out of Sunday and trying to create a package, YouTube has Sunday tickets, so it's going to certainly hurt Sunday ticket a little bit.

27:41Andrew Marchand:So I can see them stepping up and getting a package there. And that's all going to move forward. The Super Bowl will remain on broadcast television through the end of this contract. After this one, who knows? Like you said, nobody knows just the rise of streaming or even how we'll be watching it then. But right now, this year, if it opens up, I just don't see any of the current media networks being bullied away from any of their packages. I mean, I tend to agree. They all know the importance of the NFL, but I also do think at some point you have to do the math and does it make sense? And if you ask for so much money, I don't know exactly how it's going to all transpire because at the end of the day, they'll probably pay up just because of how the NFL is so dominant.

28:39That said, it's hard if you're, let's just say NBC. And the NFL says, look, we have a streamer and they pay$2 billion now or so. right now. We have a streamer willing to pay $4. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. I'm not saying they'll necessarily do that. But do you go to$4? And again, I'm not saying that scenario will happen, but I don't think that threat of it happening or them actually getting such a bid, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Maybe that's too much. Maybe it's$3.5. But again, where the equation becomes a little more difficult and you have to really figure out we're not going to make enough money on this deal.

29:24Can we survive another way? Is there another way without the NFL? Could you take that 3.5 and say, you know what, college football in the early 2030s is going to be up. We could put all our money into college football and make the college football championship. Again, I'm not saying that those things are going to happen, but at some point, there is a number. There's just not an arrow ever that just goes straight up. And so that's where I think the mayhem exists. And I've said this before, if I'm the NFL, I'm greedy, but I'm not too greedy. I think I want to leave it how I have it as much as I can, bring in the others, give them more of a taste, but keep my base that's working.

30:09These companies, except for Fox, which can do it at the moment, but they're smaller, They're all backed by, now Paramount has a lot of money with the Ellersons and Comcast and Disney, they have the money to do it. It's not like they don't have the money. Does it work on the, you know, just Sunday night? Yeah, but do they have to have it because it's the NFL? So I think that ultimately, if you want one prediction from Captain Obvious is that the NFL is going to make a lot of money, a lot more money.

30:38Andrew Marchand:And you know what to me though, the wild card, and you touched on this earlier, is that NBA deal. And not necessarily the entirety of the NBA deal, but NBC is paying the NBA more than it's paying the NFL for the most watched primetime show going back, what is it, 13 years, 14 years? Yep. And I can tell you, you know this as well, the NFL sees that and it is a burr in their saddle. It bugs them. So can the NFL potentially go and say, yeah, we're going to get greedy and we want$4 billion just to throw that number up? They're irritated by some of the payouts that are going to the NBA by their own partners.

31:32And it's within their right, because I do think one of the positives for Sunday night basketball that's starting up and then Sunday night baseball on NBC is that they're getting these promos during the NFL when there's 28, 30 million people watching, if not more on the playoffs, but 20 to 30 million during the regular season on these games. And so if I'm the NFL, I'm like, wait, hold on. They're paying them more, but they really want these ads on our games. So they're going to get more. I mean, it's where the market went. The market keeps going up. And the thing about these things, it's kind of like sports franchises.

32:12The value keeps going up. And you say, well, why is that? Because there are a bunch of rich people who can have everything in the world. But there's only 30 teams. And when the NBA comes up, the NBA is a great property. But it's also the fact that for the next 11 years, there's going to be three entities with the NBA. That's a long time, as we've talked about. And so when these things are up, their values, I'm not saying they're always going to go up. But until kids especially stop watching games, then that's when the values will go down, when the ratings go down. And thus far, that really hasn't happened, especially with the NFL.

32:54And so I don't see... That's where it's going to get a little bit interesting to me in terms of where the money goes. And is there a limit where someone says, yeah, we got to walk away? They all know the history. The history is before streaming, every network that lost the NFL immediately went the last place in the ratings. Now, entertainment isn't on regular TV. Nobody's really watching for older, older people. NBC sitcom on Thursday or whatever, some kind of show on Thursday at 8 o 'clock. Everyone watches either through Peacock or Netflix or whatever streaming service for the most part. And that's why it's obviously going there more.

33:38But sports and news is the one thing that you might be able to sell still because it's in the moment. The difference is, though, it doesn't have the shelf life. I think that's an underrated thing about Netflix, for example. If they spent$100 million on a game, that is a three-hour window. Now, you can go back and watch it, but nobody's really... You're not going back. Maybe it's your favorite team. You might want to go watch it, but nobody's really going back. You have to watch that live. And yes, you can sell advertising against it. But if you spent that$100 million, if you're Netflix, on a bunch of shows, you can put some bets down and you own that show.

34:15And so something like Stranger Things, in theory, is going to be watched by generations. And so the added value by owning as opposed to leasing, especially in the different type of programming, I get it. Netflix is getting involved in sports now, but how heavily involved are they going to get and how choosy will they be is, I think, a big question that we'll see answered.

34:38Andrew Marchand:Do you know how many failures they had to pay and wade through before they got to Stranger Things? no I agree with you yeah but you're saying yeah sports is a better you're right it's more of a guarantee well I'm just saying that the streamers right now understand they're all launching their ad tiers they all see the value of sports as they're launching their ad tiers they're all seeing the value of sports in terms of bringing people into the just adding subscribers that stick you talk to anybody at NBC people come in for sports and then they navigate all the way through Peacock just to see different shows that have nothing to do with it.

35:22But doesn't that make ESPN and Disney even stronger when you think about it? They have the best rights portfolio of any platform right now. And we're saying how this helps Netflix if they have a sporting event, they see a Peacock, it helps them 10%. If you have the best portfolio of anybody, I really feel like you have some leverage. And I also think as we get more mature into this market, I do think households will say at some point, what do we watch? And I think they already do. People do this. I'm not saying people don't do it already, but they'll even do it even more so. And with Netflix getting into sports, if I'm Disney and they haven't really been able to create shows, enough shows, their own Stranger Things.

36:05but if they can begin to do that and then you say, well, with us you get this amount of sports. With Netflix you get this amount. Again, I think that's a good comp for Disney and what they're trying to do and ESPN. So it's complicated.

36:22Andrew Marchand:Let me really play devil's advocate on that question because I do think the ESPN is great for Disney and it's a good place to go. However, the you know i went to after the um the playoff nfl playoff game ended on sunday i went to netflix and right there on my home screen i don't know if it's because of my algorithm and they don't know that i i watch sports is bill simmons and so think of all the people that are going into netflix sports fans and not you know you get the casuals you get the nine oh i want to i want to check this out. It's live and they're talking about something that just happened.

37:04Andrew Marchand:If you're an ESPN fan, sports fans go there. Absolutely. If you're a Netflix, it's a whole Turner argument. People that were watching an entertainment show and then going in to watch Inside the NBA or people that were watching the NBA game and then sticking, not changing the channel and watching an entertainment programming after that. Some of these Netflixes and YouTubes and even the other broadcast networks, they do attract more casual viewers, which is everything that the leagues love, which is taking nothing away from the ESPN portfolio of rights over there. Yeah. I mean, I do think that you're going to see probably the next five years, at some point, you'll just have one offering from Disney.

37:52I mean, I think that's where they need to go. And they've been slow, I think, a lot with the technology. But it's still too... I can bundle this. We'll just bundle all your stuff together and make it one price and let everyone pay their$35, which just seems like the price they're probably going to end up at$30,$35. If they're going to get$30 a month for all the Disney and Hulu stuff, that's pretty good. I mean, Netflix is$20 I think I pay a month. And then if three people are on, they want more money. I mean, they got to be a little careful with that because it's still dominant and it's still the number one place that young people...

38:34I think if you think about on a random night tonight, if you want to watch some streaming, I think Netflix is a lot of times your first choice, depending on what you have. but it is expensive. And they were smart, of course, to crack down on password sharing and all that. But it's expensive. When you start looking at it, I mean, it's not cheap. I mean, you're paying them$240 a year. I mean, that's a lot of money.

39:06Andrew Marchand:One more NFL question. Go to andrewmarchand.com. Andrew hosts a twice a week podcast, once with John Mita Perel, the voice of Boston College. where you do such a great job of going through the announcers and the NFL announcers. And you've had, from what I've heard, you've had praise for Buck and Aikman, I think Torrico and Collinsworth, the NBC crew. You've been harsher on Tony Romo and Jim Nance. and I think you talk about the Fox group, Burkhart and Tom Brady as having improved a ton, which I agree with. This is all my way of saying, and Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit, of course, are out there as well.

39:57Andrew Marchand:You don't talk about them nearly as much, it seems. But my question for you, we know Al re-upped for one more year, as Richard Deitch reported. Next season, are there going to be any changes at the top, in your opinion? Next year, probably not. Probably status quo in terms of the top teams. I mean, you talked about Nance and Romo. You know, nobody's really... I guess there have been some people who speculated, but Tony Romo has$72 million left on his contract. That's a lot of money. So I don't know if you're just going to eat$72 million. So I don't know what happens there. but that team I would say this is how I would judge it if you're a network or a streamer if you had a Super Bowl tomorrow would you go into that Super Bowl feeling confident?

40:51I think if you're NBC with Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth and I know there's people listening you're going to have your taste on who you like, who you don't like and Collinsworth can be polarizing like all these guys but I think if you're NBC you feel confident Buck and Aikman of course you feel confident. I think where Burkhart and Brady have gone a year after they had the Super Bowl, they did the Super Bowl last year, and Brady had a very mundane game, they would feel very confident in that team. And I think with Nance and Romo, I don't think you have that at the moment. They messed up the end call at the Super Bowl where Romo talked too much after the Chiefs overtime two years ago.

41:32Last year, on Buffalo and Kansas City, They missed the last call. Nance missed the last call on the near catch. And so, yeah, I think that's the team that you look at and you're like, when they're doing your game, you're not as sure what you're going to get. It's just a little bit disjointed.

41:54Andrew Marchand:Who's on deck? There's JJ Watt. There's Greg Olson, of course. Who's sort of under the radar that you think could potentially slide in if one of these number one spots open? Travis Kelsey is the guy he wants to do games he's getting married so I don't know actually it's the Nesson crowd they can go out to I think it's in Rhode Island yeah so even before Taylor Swift Travis Kelsey is a guy who even has a tight end one of the best tight ends of all time he was on any list you put together I put together a list back 5, 6 seven years ago. And Kelsey would be on that list of potential analysts. So he's going to get big money as at least a studio guy.

42:45And then possibly if he wants to be in the booth. The booth is more work. It's harder. We've seen Brady's improvement. It takes time. Studio is easier. You can plan everything out. You know the questions. It's in and out. Doing a game. These guys, they dream of of playing in a Super Bowl, not calling a Super Bowl. And so it's one of those things that they got to adjust to. I don't know if Tom Brady ever watched a game from the perspective of the press box before he started doing games. It's just a different look, even if you're Tom Brady and you have to get used to the monitors. There's a lot going on besides just talking.

43:24And so, but yeah, to answer your question, I think you'd probably go into next year with status quo. But you never know. That's what makes it exciting.

43:33Andrew Marchand:All right. We have about three minutes left. I do want to get to the World Cup coming on. You're a big soccer fan. World Cup is coming to the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, of course, this summer. And then the rights are going to be coming up. We saw the Women's World Cup rights go to Netflix, which was a shocking development when that happened because Fox really wanted to keep the rights. and Netflix paid up for something to really be eventized. Who are you looking at as the World Cup rights come up? Of course, Fox wants them. ESPN under John Skipper wanted them. They don't seem to be as heavy into soccer anymore.

44:15Andrew Marchand:So I'm not sure what other terrestrial channels are out there, some regular linear channels. Who are you keeping your eye on? Yeah, I think the streamers, Netflix, Prime Video, YouTube. I think those are places to watch for the World Cup. If you ask me, in the global world, which sport benefits most at soccer? Because they're coming to the US market as opposed to the US going to these other markets. They're not as necessarily keen on American football and the NFL. Baseball and basketball, they're more global in a lot of respects. but you just get into time zone difficulties and so I think the streamers if you look at a global approach to something like the World Cup which is truly a global event you could argue a bigger something here where like Netflix just to throw a company out could potentially buy the global rights to the World Cup over the next four years Yeah, I don't think that's out of the question.

45:25Why not? I mean, that's the one event where you'd bring everybody in and every market would have it. And you talk about eventizing for three weeks. Because I think you look at it, I look at the Olympics kind of like this too, in our binge world. The Olympics now, as it's presented by NBC, I may be writing a story about this. As it's presented by NBC, is you have your live games you can watch, But then at night, you can binge it for three weeks. So it's sort of, here's a, and they do it where they tell a story every night. And so I think the World Cup is similar in that regard. That said, I think Fox will still be involved.

46:04I think CBS and Paramount with Champions League is someone to watch. I don't think, I think everyone's going to be interested. I think the World Cup, I think ESPN, you're right. Skipper loves soccer. Pataro is more of a baseball guy in other sports. But so I don't know if that totally factors in, but you would think they'd want in on the World Cup as well.

46:26Andrew Marchand:Well, Andrew, you've been coming on about once a month. Appreciate it. This is a kicking off point for your next appearance when you come back on, because we ran out of time for this week, but always love having you on. Great to see you and talk to you in a few. Great, thank you.

46:47Andrew Marchand:Well, that was a lot of fun. That's pretty much exactly how our phone calls go. So I want to thank Marchand for joining the pod this week. More importantly, though, I want to thank you for listening to The Varsity, an Odyssey podcast in partnership with Puck. A few more shout outs to the people who make this pod work. There's the executive editors from Puck, Gobby Grossman, Ben Landy, John Kelly. The great team from Odyssey, Bob Tabador and Patrick Antonetti. and there's also our new partners with Nesson, Greg Poth and Mark Merlacca. If you like this podcast, make sure to sign up for my newsletter.

47:21Andrew Marchand:It's also called The Varsity. Head over to puck.news and use the code word The Varsity, all one word, for a 20 % discount. I will see you on Sunday.

47:37Andrew Marchand:I'm Spencer and I work at UnitedHealthcare. So Spencer, why do you care? I care because my daughter, Adeline, has special needs. I am motivated by Adeline, who inspires me every day. I am driven to help families like mine navigate the healthcare system. I'm so blessed to lead an amazing team at UnitedHealthcare, focusing on the member experience and making that better. I'm Spencer, and I'm committed to care.