Super Bowl or Bust

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1:06Congratulations! You made the varsity podcast. My name is John Aranda and I'm Puck's sports correspondent and the host of this pod. And today, Adam Schwartz joins the pod. Adam is a senior executive with Horizon Media and oversees the advertising budgets for a lot of the biggest brands in the country. I thought it would be a good idea to get a view of the sports business from his unique perspective as an ad buyer. Adam's a great guy, and I'm pretty sure you're going to enjoy this one. But before you get to Adam, today is Wednesday, May 20th, and here's what I'm watching. Fox Sports threw a World Cup party that I attended last week in D.C.

1:45Now, the event was one of the rare gatherings that attracted a bipartisan group, like House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senator Maria Cantwell and such. Now, the World Cup has been the focus of a ton of bad press over the past several months, from the way too high cost of tickets to immigration concerns. Now, this was a celebratory party, but those were topics that came up in nearly every conversation that I had that night. And interestingly enough, nobody seemed concerned. And when I say nobody, I mean nobody. To a person, they all told me that they've seen these types of sky is falling stories before.

2:24They precede almost every big international competition. Previous World Cups in Qatar and Russia, Olympics in Paris and Rio. As soon as the games start, the bad press always seems to slow to a trickle. Now, one sports business executive told me to expect the noise to get louder between now and kickoff. You're going to see more stories hammering FIFA on ticket prices and seating charts, he said. The first time someone shows up in an airport and can't get into the country, there's going to be a ton of visa stories, he said. But once the games start, that's all going to fade to the background. That's the belief.

3:04The World Cup starts with a couple of games on June 11th, a little more than three weeks away. And I'm still of the belief that these games are going to go off without a hitch. Okay, now let's get to Horizon Media's Adam Schwartz. I am very fortunate to have Adam Schwartz on the pod this week. The week after upfront selling season, you have, you will control the ad budgets for a number of brands out there. You're focused on mainly on the sports beat. I think my first question to you, Adam, is like 2026, spring of 2026. Give me a state of the ad sales market right now. Sure. One word to describe it, especially on the sports side of things, I would say healthy.

3:54It's changed quite a bit over the past decade just in terms of what the networks are selling us and how people are approaching us. You know, in 2015, TV ad sales was focused on mass reach solely. Linear TV dominated everything. And from a buying standpoint, everything was centered on demographic guarantees. What we're seeing today is completely different. I think things have changed more in the last 10 years than they did in the previous 30. And every year gets more and more complex. Back in 2015, 16, audiences were very predictable. Digital was still kind of emerging. The networks and the partners were still trying to figure out how to monetize that, how to make it make sense for the advertisers and everyone.

4:43And now the marketplace is just completely different. It revolves around streaming inventory. It revolves around audience targeting, attribution, cross-platform measurement, AI optimization, and performance outcomes. And these are all things that we weren't thinking about a decade ago. And now this has come into play with each and every buy that we're working on. And even from the sports side of things, which traditionally was a branding play and a way to reach a huge amount of eyeballs, even that has evolved quite a bit over the past decade. Probably not as much as everything else, but it's becoming similar in terms of how those sorts of entities are being sold.

5:28and purchased from an audience standpoint that's now happening within sports and i think that was clearly evident last week in terms of some of the topics that were being discussed with um during the up front now in in sports advertising in particular in 2015 you go out and you buy spots during a game and maybe you do a sponsorship of a pre-game show or a halftime show or or something along those lines it seems really similar to me as as a as a regular viewer in 2026 what's different from from uh uh specifically the sports buying aspect of things yeah so it may look similar in some aspects but what you're not even realizing is there's so much more that is surrounding these sports these days and the sponsorships that uh the advertisers are actually sponsoring you know It's not just your spots and then some additional ancillary inventory that might run there.

6:29There are opportunities that run the gamut across the board. Fragmentation has taken over everything. One of the reasons that sports has become more important is because of how fragmented viewership has become across the entertainment side of things. Sports has remained the only reliable place where you can still get that mass scale. but we've been able to improve it by offering a lot of different ways, whether it be to surround the game or to take your sponsorship and enhance it from a social standpoint. All of the networks and leagues and partners are coming to us with opportunities that include a ton of bells and whistles.

7:04And it's not just your standard logo on screen and your linear spot. And then, and then that's it. There's, there's a multitude of opportunities that exist now for whether it's, using some of the talent in your creative from a social standpoint, creating a storyline that way. We continue to see more and more opportunities and the network's offering more and more different ways to get into the game and enhance those sponsorships because ultimately we're trying to drive business outcomes. And while that has happened on the performance marketing side of things, that has crept into the sports side.

7:42And one of the things that was brought up across the board last week during the upfronts you know back when they first started selling naming rights to arenas the the the cliche that they always said if you just stick your brand on the building you know that that's worth nothing that has to be one step of like a two three four step process and to me that that that's where tv advertising i still call it tv advertising when it's So do I. That's how I started. So you still call it TV advertising, too. It has not like TV is a very small component to it, right? Yeah. You know, and what is a TV these days?

8:21You know, when it boils down to it, everyone, the largest screen is always going to be the most important thing. And, you know, from a data monitor data standpoint, we struggle in what's true streaming versus what is true traditional television in terms of impressions. You know, from a from a purchasing standpoint, if you're buying a CBS NFL spot, let's let's use that as an example. You're not just getting the spot on CBS linear television that can carry over to Paramount Plus. or CBS Sports. So you're getting digital impressions as part of what you're paying for. And I think the networks, they all have a different approach to it.

9:05Some are dynamically ad inserted. Some are pass-through. The pass-through ones are easier. But in order to track that stuff, it's become really, really complicated over the years just in terms of trying to really break down where your audience is watching your commercial. All right, so help me out here. Give me a specific example about a creative, again, is it advertising or is it sponsorship? How do you look at this? But a creative campaign that you came up with that really seemed to work for you. So one of my major advertisers is a big player within the college football space. There's a lot of bells and whistles that come along with it.

9:52own a bowl game, which is sort of the tentpole of everything, but they also are aligned with the seasonal sports throughout. So ultimately, our goal is to try and weave the creative messaging and storytelling throughout the season, making it resonant with all college football fans, not just those who are watching the Capital One Orange Bowl. And so that's the challenge that we're presented with. And each year, we try to do something a little bit more unique leading into Also, depending on the specific year, it could be a semifinal game, which presents a different challenge. You know, there's so many different legs.

10:31Do we want to do something on site for that particular bowl game in a given year? Or what exactly is the goal at the end? Obviously, the client themselves are driving that. And what we try to do is use the various touch points that come within the constraints of the deal that we've already committed to and then look for other opportunities, whether it be amplifying on TikTok, getting social influencers or taking advantage of creators to elevate that messaging and really helping the Capital One brand resonate across all of college football throughout the season. And there's different challenges that are coming throughout.

11:12And because they do spend on a lot of other sports as well, it's kind of finding that balance across all of them to make sure that the brand is achieving what it set out to accomplish. Here's what I like so much about Adam Schwartz is back in the day when I was at Sports Business Journal, I wrote your 40 under 40 profile. You were this young gun. And now looking, you're talking about influencers. I don't even know what you're talking about. it's a completely different language it certainly is and it's wild just to see the evolution of it and I don't pretend to be an expert in terms of any of the younger targeted opportunities there but you know it's my responsibility to know about that stuff but we do have younger younger kids on the team that can break this stuff down to me in uh in colloquial language so that I understand it and understanding the benefits that it brings.

12:06I'm a grumpy old man at this point in my life. So I'm a traditionalist and I'll always believe that. But obviously you need to evolve with all of that in order for your brands to be successful. And so understanding all the opportunities that are out there is probably the biggest challenge. As sports has become larger and more important across the entire ecosystem, system, there are more people trying to piggyback on top of that, you know. So, you know, you try to find a balance between proven entities and taking a shot on some new ones as well that might grow and balloon into something as we move further down the road.

12:45And who knows what's to come, you know, as these things continue to evolve. It's really, it's been a fascinating journey at this point. Well, you said something that really has resonated with me. The past 10 years, you've seen more changes in television advertising than what in the previous 40 years or so, which is, you know, the whole idea behind like a 30 second spot is something that was built with like three networks and, you know, and the attention being there. How much longer are we going to see this 30 second spot? I mean, it's still, it's baked in. It's part of the fiber of what television is, but everything that you're talking about sort of moving forward and, and frankly, reaching my, my own kids who would never sit through a commercial, like they would do anything but watch a commercial.

13:38It, you know, it, it seems to be changing. It's, is, is there an end date to the way that we traditionally watch television advertising? I don't think there's an end date to the 32nd commercial per se. I think it's going to act as an anchor and backbone moving forward. And that's kind of what it is now. But I think you're going to continue to see new and unique opportunities. You know, for a while there's, there's, you know, the L bar, the L bars and double boxes, which we've seen more and more of within sports have changed over the years, six second commercials, different opportunities, because the intention span of everyone has dwindled over the years.

14:19Trying to get your message across is a challenge within a short period of time like that. And that's not going to change for the advertisers themselves. So I do think that you'll see the 32nd remain the backbone, but these companies need to become a little bit more nimble and be able to offer different offerings to their consumers because of how things have changed so much. So while the 32nd will remain the backbone, I would certainly be sure that you'll see advertisers cutting that down and coming up with little snippets so that they can get a little bit of their message resonated and then kind of drive you into the formal process of a 30-second commercial, which is you can really explain what it is that you're trying to sell.

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16:16another thing that you brought up in in passing was ai and uh and the ai is infecting every part of life much less much less the sports business when you brought it when you brought it up what did you mean by that how is it affecting what you're doing i mean we're not talking creative here we're talking about actually trying to find the right people right yeah i mean it's Yes, there's a number of ways AI is being used. I think one of the things that came up last week during the upfronts, NBC had mentioned, in terms of trying to be able to contextually target with your creative. So essentially you would have your multiple creatives living within the network's ecosystem.

17:01And if there's a home run or a big play or something and you have creative ready to go, you can actually switch to that and take advantage of that moving forward. And that kind of targeting is going to make your message resonate a lot better with consumers. So that's one thing. Have we seen that yet? Is that something that we've seen already? Not within live sports, to my knowledge, but it's certainly something that's being tested out there. You know, people have always had culturally relevant, creative, ready to go. But whether that moment happens or not, a specific moment within a game is not something we've seen.

17:39We have seen, so, you know, if someone's winning the World Series or the NCAA tournament's going to overtime, Buffalo Wild Wings is ready there with its overtime spot, you know. So we've seen things of that nature, but you know that that moment is actually happening. With AI, they're using that power to kind of drive you to specific moments, to really, really make yourself culturally relevant to that moment. So you're a big baseball fan. So what you're talking about is polar water saying, every time Pete Alonzo, the polar bear, of course, I have to bring up the Orioles, right? Every time he hits a home run, we want the L bar to come, and we want this graphic to play.

18:24And that could be where this is headed. Theoretically, yes. Yet to really see it in practice. Very curious to see how it actually rolls out, but also something that makes me curious to see what the opportunities are. A lot of brands obviously sign their brand ambassadors. So if you have Pete under your scope, how do you align yourself with him when he's at his best, right? Rather than just the typical brand commercial that may feature him, but something that's just a little bit more relevant. And little things like that are helping drive audience. And the data that comes with all of this is the other part of AI that no one had access to years ago.

19:12You know, it was simply just based on the networks were delivering content and they were delivering viewers. And that's and that's what you got. The amount of sheer information that's available these days. And it's still it's still a work in progress, figuring out what works for each brand and what have you. But it's something that continues to evolve. And the brands themselves are able to make business decisions based on things of that nature. Ultimately, we're trying to target the right people. In a perfect world, everyone is a target for whatever advertiser I'm advertising for, and it's landing with them and they're signing up for our product.

19:51Obviously, that's not necessarily the case. But the more people we can hone in on that are prospective buyers will only enhance our ability to help our businesses. now for decades and decades the you know nielsen has been out and it's been a third party that's been working with television networks to say like this many people have been watching these shows and there have been a lot of complaints about nielsen and the way they count but basically it's it's an accepted third party for how they do things well now you have streamers that are coming in and they're sort of counting it a little bit differently and then you have from what you're talking about, social media influencers and, you know, what on earth is a view on TikTok, you know, or like how much more difficult has that made your job in terms of just, I guess the main issue is just coming up with pricing, right?

20:48Yeah, I mean, it has certainly complicated things quite a bit over the past five years. You know, we do our best to take the information, use it directionally. You know, there's nothing is ever truly consistent. If there was a button that we could hit to ensure that all of our goals would would happen, we would advertise in that specific show always. Right. Like if we knew this was what's going to work. It's not an exact science. We're just trying to get as much information as we can in order to help direct us and make informed decisions about moving forward and what have you. You know, from a pricing standpoint overall, it's all over the place, right?

21:29Like the main live sports that you're buying are going to continue to get more and more expensive as viewership continues to just increase or not lose audience like everything else is. And people are watching it in real time. it's going to be interesting to see how the next couple of years play out once AI becomes a little bit more mature and the actual information that everyone is kind of bringing in, seeing how people make decisions based upon that moving forward is certainly going to be interesting. Look, I grew up and my first job was in newspapers and I've been writing for magazines, I understand the value of advertising.

22:14So advertising works. However, I'm going to express some skepticism here about the Super Bowl advertising. Disney now has the Super Bowl ads. They want to get, I think,$10 million per 30-second spot, which convinced me. I'm coming to you as as a you know relatively big brand i guess convince me that that putting my brand in the super bowl is going to be worthwhile let me start by saying 10 million is insane but uh hey you're not negotiating with me it's uh yeah no no no believe me i've told disney this as well um but you know it doesn't surprise me like the value of the super bowl has has just continued to increase.

23:05We were talking a little bit earlier about what the marketplace looked like a decade ago. From a Super Bowl standpoint, it couldn't be more different. Ten years ago with the Super Bowl, first of all, you weren't necessarily putting together a full-fledged plan. The spot itself was the basis of everything. These other opportunities, while there were a few of them, They weren't as mature as they are today in terms of just putting together a full Super Bowl program that could take advantage of the one day lift and create a hello. So that's that's the biggest thing in terms of how that changed. In terms of how they've sold it, you could go in in September, October of the Super Bowl being the following year and be able to start conversations.

23:55You know, in some instances, you could hold out and hope for an opportunistic deal closer to the game. Those days are gone. The last three or four years, the demand for the Super Bowl has been absolutely outrageous. It's been selling out quicker and quicker each year. There's been waiting lists for people trying to get into the game and so on and so forth. And we don't anticipate any of that changing. In terms of why you should buy it for the John Arand advertisement. We want to sell the varsity video podcast on the Super Bowl this year. it provides an unreached uh unmatched reach at scale uh there's nothing like there's nothing like it there's nothing that's going to compete with it uh you know i like to say that the nfl is kind of in a league of its own the super bowl is in a whole nother world of its own um it's the only place where ads are the actual content um a lot of people see ads as nuisances i don't personally, but a lot of people do.

24:57Within the Super Bowl, people are watching for the ads. The casual fan is watching for the ads. The amount of earned media and social amplification that you can do around the Super Bowl is exponential. So you can, while yes, you're spending a ton of money on one day, you can do some other things to make sure that that brand story is coming through, whether it's prior to the game, after the game. If you're launching a product and you just need to get in front of people, this is no better way to do it than to get into the Super Bowl. And then ultimately, it's cultural relevance. Everyone is searching, every advertiser is searching for ways to surround those culturally relevant moments.

25:41The USA hockey team just went on a great run this past Olympics, and the brands that were associated with it in some capacity got a lift. But you don't necessarily know if the USA hockey team is going to make a run like that next year, right, or in four years. So you know that the Super Bowl is going to be there. It's going to be culturally relevant. People are going to be talking about the creative, the halftime show, everything else that goes along with it. And there's nothing else that can do that. So, yes, while it's expensive and there are cheaper ways to probably reach the John O 'Ran target audience, you're just not going to be able to recreate that moment that the Super Bowl can.

26:22And it's showing no signs of stopping. Do you get involved with a creative at all? No, not at all. I'm not much of a creative person myself. Well, certainly you've seen some ads and you're like, oh, God, that's not going to work, right? Yeah, no, totally. You know, and, you know, these creative agencies get paid the big bucks to come up with with with different ideas that are going to make them even more culturally relevant. You know, people actually sit there and grade Super Bowl spots in the USA Today ad meter. You know, it's it's wild. And some some company KPIs are determined by making the top 10 of that specific ad meter.

27:02So it's it's so your role is you love the USA Today ad meter. It doesn't matter. it's it's it's it's giving more uh more people are engaged more people are engaged even if it's even if it's a bad spot people love bad spots people like yelling about bad spots everyone's got an opinion on everything um and the super bowl is a place where where advertising actually comes to comes front and center it's the it's the closest thing we have to a shared national experience um that that exists in in this world so it's going to continue to be play a big big role moving forward yeah worst case scenario for the super bowl for abc super bowl is that uh i guess espn super bowl but it'll be on abc is a you know the jaguars against like what like the panthers and you still know that that's going to get more than 110 million viewers and it doesn't matter yeah i mean listen sports in general is it's it's it's matchup driven in a lot of instances but the NFL has created something that it's, it's, it's agnostic.

28:08It really does not matter who who's playing. People are going to, people are going to tune in. Now, if you get the Cowboys in there, you're going to, you might see some, some really, really high numbers. I know that that's why they're always featured in the most primetime games across the board, even when they don't necessarily have a good team. But ultimately the Superbowl is, is going, people are going to turn out for it. You know, even if they hate the NFL, people will watch it so they can hate on the NFL. So it's a, It's a cultural moment that just doesn't exist. This is why you're such a pro.

28:38I mean, a diehard Giants fan talking nice about the Cowboys. I thought I'd never said today. I'm a Jet fan. I'm a sad Jet fan. Yeah, yeah. One of those terrible New York teams. So you have the Super Bowl. I think the next big thing in sort of like U.S. TV is probably the conference championship games, right? Right. Why don't why don't I always thought that that would be the opportunity. So, like, as you're talking me into the Super Bowl and the relevance, you know what? I want to do a creative just for the championship games. And I want to I want to buy into that because it's a lot more affordable than doing the Super Bowl for an audience that is, you know, what, maybe half.