The NFL’s Broadcasting Shake-Up

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1:05Andrew Marchand:Congratulations, you made the Varsity podcast. My name is John Aranda and I'm Puck's sports correspondent and host this pod. And today, Andrew Marchand returns to the Varsity. You all know Andrew as a great senior sports media columnist for The Athletic. He also hosts a twice-weekly sports media podcast over at andrewmarchand.com. You really should go over there and listen to it. He's a great guy, and this is always a lot of fun. But before we get to Marchand, today is Sunday, August 30th, and I'm focused on the NFL, of course, which starts its season in a little over a week. Now, there are a couple of NFL storylines that broke this week that really interested me.

1:43Andrew Marchand:The NFL decided to end the Pro Bowl as we know it. And believe me, this was not an easy decision. especially considering that the game drew more than 6 million viewers even after it became a game of touch football. Now the NFL obviously decided that the reputational harm of producing a substandard football game without the game's biggest stars wasn't worth the type of audience that some preseason games get. Problems with all-star games is nothing new. MLB, the NBA, the NHL, they've all dealt with all-star game formats that turn off their biggest fans. The NHL found lightning in a bottle with its Four Nations tournament of international games.

2:24Andrew Marchand:The NBA, too, seemed to rebound with an international round-robin format last year. But don't expect MLB or the NBA or the NHL to follow in the NFL's footsteps and get rid of their All-Star games. That's because these leagues use their All-Star breaks as annual get-togethers, where sponsors and media partners can convene with executives in one place. That doesn't work for the World Series or the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals, where the leagues don't know where the games will be played until the week beforehand. All-star sites, they're known years in advance. Plus, the NFL has long set up Super Bowl week as its de facto trade show.

3:04Andrew Marchand:Again, sites known years in advance, and it's never used a Pro Bowl for that purpose. As for now, let's get right to Marchand. Andrew Marchand, thank you for joining us again, as you do just about monthly on the varsity. We are at this taping just about a little bit more than a week away from the start of the NFL season. You cover the media, the sports media beat better than anybody out there. What are some of the storylines that you're focused on right now? I think number one, the Tony Romo situation. How does that get resolved? Does he come back this year? Is he done at CBS? How does J.J. Watt teaming with Jim Nance, the number one team, how do they fare?

3:55I think that's the top storyline. Number two would be Mike Tomlin at NBC. He'll be a part of their studio show that's going to be on the road. Tomlin has been at the top of media executives lists for more than a decade as someone who they thought would be really good, especially in studio. So we get to see how Tomlin does. And then there is a potential announcer carousel with a lot of broadcasters with their contracts up. Joe Buck, he'll probably resign with ESPN but Joe Buck and Troy Aikman at ESPN you have Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreet at Amazon Prime Video, Ian Eagle at CBS you have the Romo situation, what's going to happen there with him and Watt, so you really have a lot going on in terms of towards the end of the season and into the off season but those are three of the major ones that I'm looking at for the broadcast

4:57Andrew Marchand:season of the nfl all right let's start with romo um you were on here a couple weeks ago we we went through it uh we both thought that he was likely not to come back i think i was a little bit stronger than you were at the time i think i was at 99 i think i would put you probably at about 90 or so has that changed as the the ensuing four weeks where would you put uh the likelihood of Tony Romo returning to, let's just say, a booth at CBS as opposed to the number one booth, a booth at CBS? Yeah, I still think it's very unlikely. I just don't think really anything has changed. You're going to have a trial or hearing on September 21st, and then you'll get past it, and then CBS is going to have to make some decisions.

5:49I just don't, again, I don't think it's impossible for Tony Romo to return. I think you had something in your private email that you send out about, you know, could President Trump get involved or somebody, something like that, where David Ellison, the head of Paramount who oversees it all, you know, gets involved and says, oh no, let's keep Tony Romo because the president likes him. I guess that's possible. But I think it's a David Burson decision, president of CBS Sports. And to me, I kind of go and I fast forward to 2028 in February and it's Super Bowl Sunday and forgetting the OWI in Wisconsin and the trouble that Romo's in uh does David Burstyn and company want Tony Romo on that call and I don't think so the only reason that he's gonna would have or could still and would have is because he's owed 72 million dollars over four years but so I'd say unlikely Tony Romo returns.

6:49Andrew Marchand:Yeah, I am very, very skeptical that he's going to return. And I've written as much too. And what I put in my private email was, you know, somebody said, I'm getting a little over my skis. I think I had it at 99 % or 99.5%. I think it's almost certain that he's not returning. And one media executive pointed out, they're like, well, there are certain scenarios that seem unlikely but certainly could happen what if what if the oval office decides that this is a cause celeb that like this is something that he wants to go out and and and push for or what if you know i don't know i don't know if this is the case or not what if tony romo plays golf with david ellison and you know they're they're good golf partners out there because there are a lot of other factors that exactly that that that might that being said i'm still well also he can apologize.

7:40He could say, you know, Romo could, you know, somehow come in and they, we haven't seen this. I, I mean, I think, look, this is, we discussed this last time. There's a bigger issue in terms of Tony Romo's performance. I mean, he was, he was everything we made him out to be those first three years. Uh, the AFC championship in January, 2019, uh, might've been the best game analyst job ever. Kansas city, new England, predicting the plays, the enthusiasm, the getting in, getting out. He was tremendous. He's gone backwards. And we've seen things that just haven't sounded right, where you're just sort of like, what's going on?

8:18And I think the issue is that's his style a little bit. And so when you go forward, and now you have this, and you have the police video, it does make it difficult. It doesn't make it impossible. I said this before, if he were John Madden, his prime right now, or Tony Romo, his first three years, I think there's no question he would have been probably at Media Day a couple weeks ago when CBS Sports had their seminar and their production meetings, he would have apologized and they would have said, we love Tony, he made a mistake, we're going to go forward. The fact is he hasn't been good. And the work ethic's been questioned.

8:51And so I think you add all those things together and it just makes it seem as if this is a way that you move on. And the money aspect, I don't think it's so easy for CBS just to claim, well, I hope we're letting them go because of this situation, because there's precedents where people have had things similar or even worse, where they've kept their job. So that's where I see it.

9:17Andrew Marchand:Yeah, I'm not sure if I totally agree with the money aspect of things. I think that that could play a case, but that's basically a set the bar for what networks pay what we pay. I would love to be able to pay that. What networks pay for their number one NFL booths. You saw what Joe Buck and Troy Aikman are getting from ESPN. And the money is up there. The fact that he's owed that money though, John, the fact that he's owed that money is a reason for them to keep him. I don't think they'll, I don't know. Look, maybe they can claw back a little bit of the money. I'm not sure they can be able to just say, well, you had an OWI misdemeanor.

9:56And then you can just say, well, we're not going to pay you.

10:00Andrew Marchand:We're both skeptical he's going to return. One quick question. is there any chance that he would return and be part of the number three booth or the number two booth? Or is it the number one booth or nothing? And then the corollary to that, are there any other networks? I mean, like you said, Curb Street is a free agent at Amazon. You have, why am I blanking on the name, at Fox, the former tight end of Fox. Greg Olson. Yeah, Greg Olson. Greg and then. I thought you were blanking on Tom Brady. And I mean, I thought you were going to be taken immediately off of Nesson. Like, they were just going to say, like, you're done.

10:44Like, you can't remember Tom Brady, but it was Greg Olson.

10:46Andrew Marchand:I do think, though, like, you know, Boston, you know, do they approve of Tom Brady and the Gucci ads and all that stuff? Is that still okay? Put on the rundown. Yeah, I'm not sure how they, you know. I want you on the record about this. Yes. No, Tony Romo's future. Tony Ramos future in NFL broadcasting if he doesn't return to the top spot at CBS. Yeah, America loves comebacks. The question is, when people look at the performance, they'll study what happened at CBS. Does he get another chance? And does he want to do it? Because he's not going to get$18 million. He could make what we all would consider a fine living.

11:33if he were offered such a job. I think the one thing, and I'm not saying this will happen. There's no, this is very speculative. But if you look down the road, a year or two, two years down the road, and Tony Romo wanted to be in broadcasting, he does have the type of personality that could fit on a studio show if someone like Terry Bradshaw retired. You know, would Tony Romo be somebody who could be in that type of role? Again, that's way down the road, and a lot of things have to happen. We're just going to have to see where Tony Romo goes from here, especially if he loses the job. But, again, I'm not saying that would happen.

12:21I'm just saying that's not something that, to me, if you kind of wanted to really think ahead and speculate, I think it's an interesting Cowboy quarterback not a Hall of Famer Fox generally likes Hall of Famers but Cowboy quarterback big name sort of fits that fun time that they like to have there again nothing that's totally just that's nothing reporting nothing anything just a little bit of like if you kind of look at where things could shake out down the road maybe

12:54Andrew Marchand:I asked you for you know of the top storylines that you're looking for the number two that you mentioned was mike tomlin who is of course in the studio at at nbc you've seen him now on air a couple of times what what are you looking for there what what's what's what's a potential storyline with with tomlin well i just think you want to see how engaged he is how willing he is to say things um i think you know we always get into this, especially ex-coaches, that they have to be critical. And it's, yeah, I mean, if you're critical, that can be good, but you don't necessarily be critical. You just need to give us insight.

13:32And so Kent Tomlin, he does have a way with words. I had Maria Taylor on my podcast the other day and, or taped it with her the other day. And she talked about how he's such a great storyteller. Can they bring that out with him? He does make it feel bigger. I would say he's probably already a Hall of Famer, won Super Bowl, lost another one, above 500 forever, made a lot of playoffs. So, yeah, I think the question with him also, does he want to come back to coaching or not? And if he does, how much will that impact him if he's kind of biding his time right now? There's no indication right now that he is, but he seems like he's serious about doing this and then putting all into being on air and being an analyst.

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15:05Andrew Marchand:Matthew Berry here and my podcast, Fantasy Football Happy Hour, has the sleepers, bust, and start-sit advice you need to win your league. We're diving into the tape. We're crunching the numbers to bring you sleepers, bust weekly start-sit advice. Whether you're defending a title or desperately avoiding last place, i've got you covered every single weekday the bar is open it's fantasy football happy hour with matthew berry wherever you get your podcasts you know in my uh private email at the at the bottom of the varsity we have uh from the cheap seats and they're anonymous uh quotes that we get from readers and after uh i think i was on your podcast actually andrewmarshane.com And we were talking about the NFL's musical chairs, sort of who's going to go where.

15:54Andrew Marchand:And this person was appalled that we never brought up the name Aaron Rodgers as being a potential replacement for somebody to – not replacement, but as somebody that could easily fit into a number one or a number two booth. and it's something that this person who, I know who it is, it's anonymous to the readers, but he's in the know, thinks that that's likely to happen. Do you see that as something that's potential to happen? I don't, look, I think that person's correct. I think, you know, I wrote this about Tom Brady. If you look at the, if you Google a list of the top 25 modern day quarterbacks, I'm talking 1970 on.

16:44And look at how many of them went into TV. They almost all did. The only two, John Elway and Brett Favre, and even Favre, he got a tryout for Monday Night Football. It didn't go well. So the idea that Aaron Rodgers should be in.

17:01Andrew Marchand:This is why you're a great guest. Is that a true stat? Those are the only two? I mean, if you consider Ben Roethlisberger, he hasn't gone to TV, but I mean, think about it. You got Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Steve Young. I don't know. Keep going all time. You'd have to call it a list, but I'm missing some people, but they all go into TV. So the point being Troy Aikman, I don't know. Try to think of somebody who's another all time great. There's not many that that haven't gone into um tv you know that aren't currently playing or joe thysman joe namath went in joe thysman was big time in there i think the sun absolutely yeah i'm sorry but i interrupted you you were talking you were talking about aaron rogers so go ahead yeah so aaron rogers so the idea that all-time great quarterback that's been the equation i just think with aaron rogers first off, does he want to do it?

18:06Secondly, the equation is different because these guys have made so much money. I mean, Tom Brady's not making$375 million because that's the value. It's just like that's what it costs to get Tom Brady to do it. And when Aaron Rodgers knows that Tom Brady's making$375 million, maybe he'll say, look, all right, Tom Brady got$375. He's not doing, he got$100 million. He's not getting, you know, for 10, you know, whatever. He's not making$3 million,$4 million. I tend to doubt it. No, as a contributor on the McAfee show or something like that, yeah, maybe. But to be a game analyst week in and week out, I also think that his stuff that he said about the Epstein files and COVID and this and that, I think networks increasingly are going to be like, is the juice worth the squeeze?

18:54He likes to talk about other things. And he is very insightful. He can be smart. I don't know. Is he that likable? I don't know. I just, I don't think so. He's also, again, Brady said he wanted to do it either. I think Aaron Rodgers also said he does that as no interest. So, um, now he, that's, that's been done before. I just don't think he's, him saying he has no interest means that you have to be, make him interested. Like Tom Brady had no interest, but they made him interested. They did a great video presentation. That's what Fox will tell you. But they also offered$375 million. That's what I will tell you.

19:27um the uh uh but the bottom line is uh aaron rogers um yeah you'd have to you know really make him an offer he couldn't refuse and i don't know why you would do that the other interesting

19:41Andrew Marchand:part about this is why i love opening the pod with like those open-ended type questions um can you imagine even a month ago like if you were if i were to ask you that question the idea of the nfl's media rights would certainly be if not the top one that you mentioned one of the top ones that now has been kicked down the the road they're still going to be negotiating but they're not opening it up early uh but before the at least fox said they're not and and from what i understand everybody else is falling in line uh a bit behind that how do you view where the where the nfl is right now with the media rights?

20:23I think that sometimes we can get lost in a storyline as opposed to a reality line. And I think maybe in this case, that's true. And what I mean by that is the NFL is doing amazing. Their rights, it's$110 billion plus. They're in the midst of that. That's an incredible, and it's really a little bit more. So that comes out to about an 11-year deal, about$10 billion a year, but it's really more like in the$12 billion range, I believe, give or take. That's pretty good. So before we say, oh, the NFL, they didn't get their even more money in the near term where they really had no right to it, except that they were mad about the NBA deal.

21:08They saw the UFC deal and they said, oh, we're underpaid. And perhaps they're right, but they didn't have the leverage. The next opening is 29 for most of them and 30 for ESPN. So I guess I didn't really understand the strategy from the beginning. I didn't see where the leverage was. I think I said that on the podcast a number of times. I don't really see why you'd give the NFL more money early. It's not like it's going to help you later. I mean, the thought process was that there's an opt-out at the end of the decade, and then that guarantees you three or four more years into the near mid-30s.

21:52But, okay, you also could just save up your money. You could hope that the streamers go away. And it doesn't seem – like, I guess this is the question. Let me turn this on you, John. We come to 2030, and they have the opt-out, and they get in these negotiations. the idea that one place might get kicked out and I'm not going to say who, you know, but if between NBC, CBS, Fox, ESPN, that one place gets knocked out, I don't think, you know, via streamer that doesn't seem, but they're not going to just knock everybody out. And it's going to be streaming city mid thirties. I think it's going to be mostly the same mid thirties.

22:33And maybe you add a Netflix, get it to bigger package. YouTube gets a bigger package or a package. um i think that seems more likely to me than the idea that there's gonna be holes so why give them so much money more money now so anyways to get to your point i think the nfl is doing fine and i think the networks made the right decisions my most recent uh podcast guest was brian herbst

22:56Andrew Marchand:who is the top business guy at nascar and he just uh signed his deals the deals he's in the second year of uh the seven year deals that are going through but he signed his deal in 2023 and he was talking i i actually i knew everything but i hadn't sort of put it together like this he was talking about the differences in the media business from 2023 where all of a sudden tnt sports is now in the process of being bought by by paramount fox bought roku uh next star is trying to uh um merge with uh with tegna uh and comcast spun off nbc and then spun off usa so the idea that in 2030 and making any kind of predictions about you know who's going to be around for those packages in in 2030 given get giving the the uh the amount of consolidation that we've just seen over the past you know like two years is uh is is somewhat foolish but what what i i think that the reason i wanted to bring this up and the i the part that i find to be really surprising is that ever since nbc came back in it was in 2006 you know they they were they they lost the nfl in 1998 they came back in and got sunday night football in 2006.

24:20Andrew Marchand:the the network the nfl has held all the leverage to the point that the networks just kind of fell in line and and and did pretty much what the NFL wanted to do. And this year we've seen, I mean, I really find it to be extraordinary. Like Lachlan Murdoch went on an earnings call and essentially was like, we're not doing it. And it was surprising to the NFL. They talk all the time, but it surprised a lot of different people. That's the type of behavior that we haven't seen for decades, Andrew. And so all of a sudden it's almost it's either that the networks are feeling emboldened now or the networks know know that there's such chaos in in their midst that they don't know what 2030 is going to look like much like they didn't know what 2026 is going to look like three years ago yeah well yes i mean i think to all that i i think look people are always asking we cover the media people always want to know where is it going um i think we can try to speculate i think maybe we have a better idea than maybe some others, but we still don't know.

25:33You don't know where things are headed exactly. I mean, AI is such a transformative technology that we don't know how that's going to impact everything. I will say, I'm not fully there, but I'm getting to this point where, and I know you've written about this, the companies like Apple, like Google, owners of YouTube, are they going to get more interested in AI? Because in comparison, the spend on AI compared to what NFL rights is, NFL rights are not important to them when you think about what AI is for the future of their business. And so will they just get disinterested? If they do, I don't think Netflix gets disinterested at the NFL level.

26:21Maybe at the lesser level in terms of ratings. I think they might get a little disinterested possibly. Amazon has a full plan. I mean, they're in it. I mean, they just did an NHL deal in Canada for 11 years. So, you know, you're talking now, you're getting into contracts into the late 30s. They already have NBA contracts and a, forgetting the opt-out and an NFL contract into the mid 30s. So I don't think they're going anywhere. they're the ones that if you ask where Super Bowl can end up again in front of a paywall I'd say they'd have the most likely at this point they're ahead in the game in terms of the streamers but you don't know where everything's going and that's going to be the interesting aspect of it

27:07Andrew Marchand:yeah and you're seeing everybody trying to make their bets we're going to have a streaming package we're going to have broadcast packages they still have cable packages because it's potential that, you know, the cable bundle, the cord cutting bottom, maybe sooner, we may find it sooner than later.