Iran, Israel, and Trump

0:00Today is day five of Israel and Iran trading deadly fire. This afternoon, President Trump got on Truth Social to post some extraordinary threats aimed at Iran. He called in all caps for Iran's unconditional surrender, then committed to not kill Iran's supreme leader for now, before adding, quote, our patience is wearing thin. Earlier today, Trump had seemed much more optimistic, saying he was looking for something better than a ceasefire. Trump hasn't clarified whether the U.S. will get involved in this conflict. New reports suggest that Israel wants American help in reaching Fordow. This is a nuclear fuel enrichment plant built deep in a mountain that reportedly only American bombs and bombers can penetrate.

0:48The thing holding Trump back? A fight within his own MAGA movement over whether America should go to war again. It's coming up next on Today Explained.

1:05listening to Today Explained. My name is Nahal Tusi. I'm senior foreign affairs correspondent and a columnist for Politico. Why did Israel attack Iran? Israel has long seen Iran's regime, especially its nuclear program and its ballistic missile program, as an existential threat to the state of Israel. Ladies and gentlemen, the relevant question is not when Iran will get the bomb. The relevant question is, at what stage can we no longer stop Iran from getting the bomb? And they also, especially because of the last year and a half of fighting in the region, they see Iran as being particularly vulnerable right now.

1:52Israel has decimated or severely weekend, a number of Iranian proxy militias in the region, including Hamas, Hezbollah. They've been fighting somewhat with the Houthis as well. At the same time, they've had a couple of exchanges directly with Iran, and they've already taken out a good number of Iran's weapons facilities and other infrastructure over the past year and a half. And so they decided that now was a good time to attack. The Iranians acknowledging that some of their senior military leaders have been killed or wounded in these Israeli attacks, the most important of which is Hossein Salami, who is the head of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is, of course, the elite wing of Iran's military.

2:39Israel has also targeted nuclear scientists. They include Iran's former nuclear chief and several university professors. And the particular timing was interesting because the U.S. and Iran were holding nuclear talks to try to rein in Iran's nuclear program. But Israel does not trust this regime and it was not confident that any deal that would be reached would be strong enough for it to feel comfortable with this regime. We had covered the U.S.-Iran talks on the show, and it was notable at the time, at the very start, how optimistic people really seemed to feel, like maybe there could be a breakthrough here.

3:18So the opportunity for the Iranians to actually strike a deal is frankly greater now than it was ever during the Biden administration. What was happening with those talks? And did the United States know that this might happen in response to those talks? Well, look, when it comes to U.S.-Iranian-Israeli relations, the bar is really low for optimism.

3:44But look, perhaps there was some possibility of getting some version of a nuclear agreement that would rein in Iran's ambitions and make the United States, President Trump in particular, be willing to say he has a deal. But I will just say, I think there was always going to be some red lines that Iran didn't want to cross. It did not, for instance, want to give up its right to enrich uranium on its soil, even to just low levels of enrichment. And for the Israelis, that's just a nonstarter. In recent years, Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs. Nine. So there's just a lot that went into that.

4:24But President Trump really did push Israel, from what I could tell, to hold off, give diplomacy a chance. Now, did the United States know that Israel was going to carry out this attack? Look, the fact that Israel was preparing for an attack was not a secret. Everyone knew this. And my understanding from what I've read and what I've been told is there was a brief heads up that this was about to happen. But that doesn't mean that the United States told Israel, yes, go ahead, do it. We support you. Nor, from what I can tell, they say, do not do it. We will be furious if you do it. It seems to me instead of a green light or a red light, the light might have been broken.

5:04But that's something that, frankly, as journalists and others, we're still trying to figure out really what exactly happened.

5:16One of the big questions in the U.S. is, is America going to get involved in this conflict? Do we know to what degree the U.S. is or is not involved right now? And what involvement, what further involvement might mean? Well, there's some reports that the U.S. has been helping Israel intercept missiles from Iran. I think this is also partly because the United States has troops in the region, and so it's trying to protect Americans. So on the defensive end, the U.S. is certainly involved. But to my knowledge, the United States has not been actively involved in the offensive portion of this attack in terms of Israel going after Iranian targets.

5:56That could change if Iran, for instance, strikes American targets. If Iran, say, goes after American troops in the region directly, the United States might decide it has to get involved, even for a temporary basis. This is very unpredictable. This could last days, if not weeks, maybe months. And so anything is possible in terms of U.S. involvement at this stage. Does this attack put an end to the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks? Are those just over now? They're definitely on hold. But there are reports that the Iranians are reaching out. And it's not just reports. I mean, the foreign minister of Iran has said we were happy to talk again.

6:35But he's also said that they still want to maintain the right to enrich uranium, which President Trump has said he doesn't want to allow. So it seems like they're being a bit inflexible at the moment. I hope there's going to be a deal. I think it's time for a deal and we'll see what happens. But sometimes they have to fight it out. But we're going to see what happens. But again, the Israelis do not trust the regime. I just don't know what the regime could do to assuage their concerns with any deal. I just think the Israelis don't trust this particular regime to adhere to even what might be the most amazing best deal.

7:12The trust deficit is just extraordinary. Yeah, so that sort of demands the question be asked, does Israel want something more? Is Israel after regime change here? Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel has said that regime change could be a possibility. He has issued statements to the Iranian people saying we are creating a path for you to take your freedom. And as we achieve our objectives, we're also clearing the path for you to achieve your objective, which is freedom. I believe other Israeli officials, the way they're saying is that's not our objective. That's not our official goal. We just want to destroy the nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

7:53But they don't deny that it's a possibility and that they wouldn't mind seeing it happen. So it kind of depends in part on whether the Iranian people rise up. But it also could depend on whether Israel changes its mind going forward and decides, you know what, we want to take out a few political leaders. We want to go beyond what we've done already. And I wouldn't rule that out. Israel has shown over the past year and a half in its fights in Gaza, Lebanon and beyond that it is willing to adjust its goals. What you will hear if you're listening to interviews from inside Israel is that an action like this kind of lines Israelis further up behind Netanyahu.

8:29Like, OK, now we have an objective. Netanyahu is unpopular, but we got to get behind him for now. Do you know what the reaction in Iran is to this? Does this make Iranians like their government more or want them out more? Look, I think it depends on which Iranian you talk to. There's certainly going to always be a faction that supports the regime. They're very kind of bought into the ideology. And there's going to be some, I think, rally around the flag effect. But overall, over the years, I think most of the Iranian people are really, really sick of this regime. They would be happy to see the Islamic leadership fall.

9:05The question isn't whether they want it or not in their hearts. It's a question of whether they have the ability and the organization to help bring it about. The Iranian opposition is frankly not very cohesive or good. They tend to spend more time fighting amongst themselves. They're not really anchored inside Iran. They're mostly on the outside and don't really have a lot of power. So there's nobody who's a real alternative. There's no organization or person who's a true opposition leader that people can rally around. There are some who style themselves such, but that's not really there. So it's a bit of a mess.

9:43A couple of weeks ago on the show, we talked about how President Trump was perceived as giving Benjamin Netanyahu the cold shoulder. He visits the region. He doesn't go to Israel. He seems a little chillier than usual. Do Israel's actions force the United States and Israel closer together? Yes. I mean, look, at the end of the day, when Israel is in any way in some sort of a danger, even if it's danger that its actions have provoked, the United States is going to stand up for Israel. I can't imagine any president that wouldn't do that. You have to understand Benjamin Netanyahu has basically messed with every U.S.

10:23president he has dealt with. Not a lot of them care for the guy, to be really frank, but they do care for the most part about the state of Israel itself. And so America will be there for Israel ultimately.

10:46Nahal Tusi, you can read her at Politico. Coming up, America First versus the Hawks.

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13:57This is Today Explained. I'm Andrew Prokop, senior correspondent, Vox covering politics. All right. At the moment, anyhow, President Trump seems to approve of Israel's attack on Iran. How does MAGA broadly feel about it? There's a very interesting split in the MAGA movement. You can see it in certain tweets, certain posts, but what's really happening is that a kind of new faction has formed on the right that is challenging the longtime Republican consensus on foreign policy. And we can think of this as the America First faction. I would say that the three most important people, the three people who have actually given it juice are Tucker Carlson, J.D.

14:48Vance, and Donald Trump Jr. So I'm just looking at it from an American perspective. I don't want my country to be further weakened, my fellow citizens to die yet again, my federal treasury to be drained yet again on behalf of an idea that's clearly stupid. We should be putting the interests of our own citizens first. And if our government's making promises to other people, to other refugees, then let's be honest about it. But stop with these ridiculous platitudes because they don't actually mean anything unless there's substance behind it. I think my father has truly changed, you know, the Republican Party.

15:23I think it's the America First Party now, the MAGA Party, however you want to look at it. The three of them came together around this kind of shared worldview that the previous Republican hawkish consensus on foreign policy is wrong and everything needed to be rethought. And we should try hard to avoid getting sucked into any more forever wars. I want to talk about Tucker because Tucker's been out there giving good tape. He can obviously speak freely in a way that the vice president maybe can't. You actually spoke to him. What's the argument that he's making? Yes, I interviewed him and we talked before Israel launched its strikes on Iran.

16:05And he said the most important thing to avoid would be the U.S. getting sucked into war with Iran. He says that it would just be disastrous, that we would lose. It's hard to affect regime change in countries you're not from. It's hard to know what the consequences will be. We've tampered in that country extensively. It hasn't worked at all. It's been counterproductive. But the broader critique, it goes beyond just Israel or just Iran or even just Ukraine, which is the issue that Vance and Carlson and Don Jr. originally came together around opposing aid to Ukraine. Our economy has degraded. The suicide rate has jumped.

16:43Public filth and disorder and crime have exponentially increased. And yet your concern is that the Ukrainians, a country most people can't find on a map, who've received tens of billions of U.S. tax dollars, don't have enough tanks. I think it's a fair question to ask, like, where's the concern for the United States in that? It's not just about Russia. It's not just about the Middle East. It's about the entire world. It's about whether the U.S. should continue trying to basically engage in global superpower competition for a kind of world dominance against the powers it perceives as its rivals or whether it needs to retreat back more to its own borders, focus on what's happening maybe in the Western Hemisphere.

17:34There's just a very deep doubt that getting involved in all of these foreign commitments, foreign alliances, possibly foreign conflicts will be good for the United States. Tucker Carlson has been talking about Iran, I've noticed, for a while, even though all this with Iran just, you know, officially kicked off in the last week or so. Do we know why Iran was prompting Tucker to talk before seven days ago or 10 days ago? Well, this really goes back to Trump's first term. If you remember in the beginning of 2020, Trump had one of the top generals of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Qasem Soleimani, killed.

18:17And there was a moment of very high tension between the U.S. and Iran. And this was a first-term Trump following the counsel and the advice of the traditional hawks, who are all gung-ho for let's be tough. We're the strongest power. Let's reach out and confront Iran. They've been engaged in the shadow war with us, and we should do something about it. And at that time, Tucker was running shows basically urging Trump, step back from the brink. Don't let the hawks bring you into war with Iran. This would be a disaster. It's harder to get rich and powerful in Washington during peacetime, so our leaders have a built-in bias for war.

18:59And so they descended on television studios over the weekend to describe in detail the kind of violence they're prepared to wreak on a country very few of them know anything about. So, you know, this is a suspicion he's had for a while. It dates back to his loss of faith in the Iraq War, which can be dated back to about 2004. So we carry that forward into Trump's second term. — Donald Trump, President Trump alienated, as you know, a lot of those old hawks from his first term. They're either not speaking or he's made clear that he doesn't want them anywhere near him. Who is representing that old guard in this term?

19:37— You know, it's kind of the longstanding Republican establishment in the staffer class and in Congress as well. I think one very clear look at who is a hawk is that in the Senate, there was a letter that said any deal with Iran should allow no nuclear enrichment by Iran. That's a very hawkish position. And every single Republican senator except for Rand Paul signed that letter. And that's a sign that the Hawks continue to have really deep support within the Republican Party, certainly among elected officials, definitely among the longtime Republican staff. And the challenge to it is really kind of more on the MAGA right media voices and a kind of upstart group of advocates, influencers and younger staffers.

20:34But there's always been, in the broader right, this other strand that has sometimes been called isolationism. It goes back to World War I, World War II. There were people on the right arguing hard against U.S. involvement in both of those wars. Another war, not for me. This time America should keep out, and I know I will. If war breaks out in Europe, I think that this country should heed the advice of its first president. And avoid all foreign entanglements. But they kept losing, in the end, the arguments. And in the Cold War, they lost the argument. There was a brief resurgence of isolationism in the 90s after the Cold War ended.

21:15People on the right were like, hey, why are we doing all this stuff in other countries now that communism has been defeated? They call us isolationists. Well, if they mean I intend to isolate America from all the bloody territorial, tribal and ethnic wars of the 21st century, I plead guilty. But then 9-11 put the Hawks in charge again. It seemingly proved that, like, if we don't pay attention to what's happening abroad, we don't act aggressively, then we are going to get our own people killed. And Carlson has been really engaged in a project to create an alternative to that way of thinking that would catch on among the MAGA base, as well as develop alliances with a new network of professional policymakers who can take jobs in the Trump administration and jobs that would have gone to these typical hawks.

22:17So both of these sides are trying to influence President Trump and his decision making. He at the moment, as we said, he's celebrating Israel today, right now. Does that mean that the Hawks have got the upper hand here in terms of who is closest to what the president is thinking? You know, it keeps changing, this battle between the two factions, which is very intense, very bitter and very personal about the Hawks versus the America Firsters. Like there are warring leaks, trying to get people fired, and it keeps varying kind of who's on top. It looked for a while like Trump was really leaning against the Hawks.

22:55A bunch of Hawks got fired from the National Security Council in the staff as well. Now to a big shakeup at the White House, officials announcing the firing of potentially more than 100 members of the National Security Council. Sources say the decision came after President Trump met with far right activist Laura Loomer, who made the recommendations on who to fire. There was that moment when J.D. Vance kind of humiliated Ukrainian President Zelensky. Have you said thank you once? I think the thing about Trump is that he is on many issues not an ideologue. He's really drawn towards what will make him look good.

23:33And so you saw at first this caution about the Israeli strike. We wanted to stay away from it. But when it started looking like it was very successful, Trump started, you know, taking credit for it. And so that is, I think, the biggest danger to the America firsters. If this military option is seen by Trump as having worked, at least in the short term, he's going to be tempted to associate himself more and more closely with it.

24:05Does President Trump have a vision for American foreign policy beyond what's good for me? I think he has instincts. He has things he wants. I don't think he has a vision or an ideology at all, really. He's flexible. But, you know, one thing where he is quite different from the America Firsters or the isolationists is that he doesn't want to withdraw the U.S. entirely from the world. He does have this skepticism of overseas military commitments and worry about foreign wars that might go badly. But, you know, he's going to the Middle East. He's making deals with Saudi Arabia, with the United Arab Emirates.

24:56He wants to continue this global engagement. He's involved in these talks about between Russia and Ukraine involving Israel and its rivals or enemies in the region. And so he, like some people have speculated he wants a Nobel Prize. You know, he wants to be on the global stage. He doesn't want to withdraw and just focus on America. Vox correspondent Andrew Prokop, his article took weeks of reporting. It's called The Surprising Right-Wing Push to Keep Us Out of War. You can find it at Vox.com. Andrew, thank you so much. Thanks so much for having me.