‘Apocalyptic’ El Niño to unleash extreme weather - The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:10They're expecting to see droughts in the Amazon. Big hit to the rainy season in India and Southeast Asia. Effectively sort of turn world weather systems on their head. The famine that took place in East Africa in the 1980s that inspired the Live Aid event was caused by an El Nino event. So, you know, that just gives you a sense of just how impactful this can be. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoth.

0:42We're just coming out of what has felt like a particularly brutal summer of back-to-back heatwaves, one of the hottest on record. And now we've had this incredibly stark warning from the United Nations about the super El Nino that's coming. and what it's going to mean. Damien Gale, you're our environment correspondent. What's been the warning from the UN and how serious is it? So it's the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization. They've been issuing reports on the development of the latest El Nino for quite a few months. And each time they publish one of these reports, it just looks more and more almost apocalyptic, you could say.

1:26the scale of this weather event is like something that the world meteorological organization are now saying that we haven't seen for over a thousand years it's gonna it's been colloquially termed a godzilla el nino right and i think that kind of gives a flavor of of the kind of impact that people are expecting yeah this this monster el nino the type of which we haven't seen in a thousand years. I mean, it's very, very dangerous. It's a very, very dangerous warning. To go back to basics a little bit, what is an El Nino and what's the difference between an El Nino and a super El Nino? So El Nino is a climatological weather phenomenon.

2:07What normally happens is in the Pacific Ocean, you have these trade winds that blow from the east and they carry warm water with them across the ocean and so you end up with warm water being pushed across the ocean this heat being pushed across and then it comes down as rain and you get the monsoon season over in in southeast asia now what happens with el nino is that these trade winds weaken or they go into reverse causing all of these weird cascading effects for our climate that have an effect all around the tropics and then sort of cascade on all across the rest of the world from there. So what does that actually look like?

2:53Because it sounds like you're talking about extreme weather in quite literally all its forms in different parts of the world. Yeah, so it manifests in different ways in different parts of the world. So they're expecting to see droughts in the Amazon, which obviously is already seeing quite a difficult situation around drying out. And this whole idea they could turn into a savannah, you will see droughts around parts of east africa which are you know obviously you know well renowned for for the droughts and the kinds of famines that that can that can also lead to but then in other parts so on the coast of the on the west coast of the united states you're going to see more rain around california um you'll see big hit to the rainy season to the monsoon season in india and southeast asia which will have huge effects there on agriculture so it will have all of these effects and effectively sort of turn world weather systems on their head for a little bit.

3:46And obviously, the stronger the El Nino, the more these weather systems get turned on their head and the more extreme weather we end up with. But, I mean, as you describe that, you just think of agriculture, don't you? And the impact on food production and supply systems around the world. I mean, the UN has explicitly warned of a hunger crisis that could come from this because of that. so agriculture yeah agriculture is going to be specifically affected and massively affected but it's not just agriculture it's also things you know this affects so many areas of life so for example already the panama canal has been restricted to some shipping because the the levels of water in the lakes that feed the panama canal have been falling as a result of a lack of rainfall around Central America.

4:35And so that will have a huge knock on effect for global trade, it will be this, you know, this crucially important arterial route for global trade will be restricted. And we're already seeing obviously problems around the Persian Gulf. And on the other side, there's the potential for the Houthis in Yemen to block off the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. So you know, we could end up with this really, you know, it has geopolitical impacts it's not just an impact on on the weather you know this is going to affect the geopolitical climate of the planet man 2027 is not sparking joy from the picture you're painting Damien um I mean obviously we talked about extreme heat which is something that we've experienced a lot of here in the UK this summer it's felt like there's been back-to-back heat waves you know temperatures in excess of 38 degrees in cities that just aren't equipped to deal with it And we've learned about the number of excess deaths in Europe as a result of those heat waves, which I think sort of gives us a sense of a precursor of what we could see next year.

5:43yeah certainly and you know if you want to talk about excess deaths in europe i mean excess deaths in europe are going to be you know just like a mere fraction of the kinds of excess deaths you'll see in countries that really experience extreme heat when you think of the kind of extreme heat they experience in pakistan or the kinds of extreme heat they experience in india or you know we have to think about what's the global justice situation around extreme heat In Europe, we have a high energy technological society where we're able to use, take advantage of things like air conditioning, which obviously ironically is making the climate crisis worse.

6:22But, you know, the question is around something like extreme heat is who gets to stay cool in a situation of extreme heat? Yeah, which is obviously countries with higher GDPs and wealthier nations that can afford to put these mitigations in place. But it feels, Damien, like the kind of extremity of the language is deliberate from the United Nations and from climate experts about the supersized nature of this El Nino, that it's going to be this kind of Godzilla weather event, is deliberate to push governments into taking action to prepare for this rather than to react to it when the worst of its impacts hit next year.

7:02Yeah, no, I think that, yeah, it's definitely the case that the reason for the World Meteorological Organization's regular reporting on El Nino is to give countries more time to be prepared, to be able to respond and mitigate the effects of this. much like you know we talk about the mitigation of the effects of climate change you know the impact of el nino can be hugely severe that the the famine that took place in east africa in the 1980s that inspired the live aid event was caused by an el nino event so you know that just gives you a sense of just how impactful this can be and obviously countries that um you know countries that are developing countries that are less less wealthy have got less potential or less able to protect themselves against an event like this countries that obviously are wealthier the kinds of countries that we live in we you know we don't need to worry so much about it but it will have a knock-on effect on things like food prices so we obviously rely on these global supply chains you know we rely on countries that are less wealthy to supply us with food and consumer goods And so those, you know, those agricultural products, those commodities are going to obviously going to there's going to be an increase of prices around that.

8:19Yeah, yeah. And just lastly, Damien, I mean, it feels, I mean, it's been clear for some time that we have long surpassed the targets that were set in the Paris 2015 climate accords of global heating limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. that we've been heading in this terrible direction for a long time. But we've got political parties and media organisations that are calling for an end to net zero targets for a slowing down of the clean energy transition. Our colleague Damien Carrington wrote a great piece today about how the right-wing press in the UK is responding to this by saying, you know, like some places saying it's a good opportunity to drink rosé in your garden or that air conditioning in school closures is some kind of like return to lockdowns.

9:09I'm just wondering, like, how on earth is that justifiable when we are so clearly seeing the impact of climate change now? Well, I mean, obviously, it's insane. And it's not in the best interests of the great majority of the world's population. But you have to remember, why is climate change happening? Climate change is happening because the human activities that are destructive to the climate are precisely the human activities that increase the growth of the economy and will increase the profits for the people who own and control huge companies like the oil majors, you know, like, you know, big multinational chemical companies, big agriculture.

9:48They're just taking a profit. They're taking a profit. It's at the expense of the environment. And because it's at the expense of the environment to such a huge extent, it's at the expense of all of us as people who rely on the environment. And so if you are a TV channel that's controlled by a hedge fund billionaire, you know, or a newspaper that's controlled by billionaires, then you're going to represent the interests of the billionaires who were able to make a profit out of destroying the environment. I mean, it's as simple as that. It certainly is. Damien, thank you so much. All right. Thanks a lot.

10:22That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Damien Gale, The Guardian's environment correspondent. you can keep up with all his reporting and our environment team over at theguardian.com. And before we go, I really recommend listening to the new series of Black Box. Season one was incredible and season two is just as good. Familiar voice to Today in Focus listeners, Michael Safi, will be returning to investigate how AI chatbots are influencing our minds and reshaping our reality. All six episodes are available now. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning.

10:58The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Angus Neal. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. The executive producer was Zoe Hitch. And it was presented by me, Lucy Hough.

11:13This is The Guardian.