Can Europe’s leaders drag Trump’s Ukraine policy back on track? – Today in Focus Extra podcast

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:09This afternoon, an update. Can Europe's leaders drag Trump back on track?

0:22It's not every day that the most powerful leaders in Europe rip up their schedules and drop everything to fly halfway across the world. But that's exactly what Keir Starmer and his counterparts are doing for Vladimir Zelensky today, freaked out by what happened in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Friday. Trump flew to Anchorage all guns blazing, promising a ceasefire and threatening very severe consequences if the Russians didn't comply. Instead, after three hours with Putin in the subarctic chill, he suddenly seemed in favour of a long-term peace settlement, designed very strongly in favour of Russia.

1:01That's why Starmer, along with a dream team of European heavyweights, have invited themselves to the White House today, where they'll back up Zelensky as he pleads with Donald Trump not to agree any sort of deal with Russia without him.

1:17The fact that all these leaders have torn up their schedules and flown out to Washington at very short notice shows how important it is and shows how alarmed they are about what happened in Alaska. And it shows this is not just about Ukraine, but it's very much a pivotal moment in which the future of European security will be decided. From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus. Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office, take two.

1:52Julian Borgia, you are The Guardian's senior international correspondent based in London. Thank you for taking the time for us on what could be an incredibly consequential day. It could indeed, yes, absolutely. So we're talking on Monday morning as European leaders make their way across the Atlantic to Washington DC to provide backup for Vladimir Zelensky in his talks with Trump. It's become clear, hasn't it, over the weekend what Putin's demands are that he wants Ukraine to completely withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including parts that are still controlled by Ukraine. And in return, he says he would freeze the rest of the front line.

2:27Not just that, though, he also wants assurances that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO. How has Trump's position changed following that meeting? Yes, it went through a complete 180 degree shift in his three hours with Vladimir Putin. He went in saying that he would be very unhappy if there was no ceasefire and came out playing down the idea of a ceasefire, saying a ceasefire won't get it done. And what's needed is a comprehensive agreement, which is very much Putin's line. So he seems to just have taken that line on and jettisoned the demand for a ceasefire that going into it seemed all important to him.

3:06and he was on the brink of imposing severe sanctions against Russia for not agreeing a ceasefire. So it is quite the turnaround. And now it's an uphill task really for Zelensky and his European backers to tie and turn Trump around again and put the emphasis back on an immediate ceasefire that stops the fighting now. And ahead of the talks later today with European leaders, Trump has been posting on Truth Social, his social network, saying that Zelensky could end the war almost immediately if he wanted to. What do you think Trump is sort of getting at with that? Well, he's saying give up Crimea and give up NATO in that particular post.

3:55Now, compared to what Putin is asking for, that in a way is quite doable. I think there's an acceptance among Ukrainians that Crimea is gone for the time being. They will never acknowledge their sovereignty, but they could accept occupational Crimea. The problem is Putin wants far more than that. He wants all of Donetsk. He wants Luchansk. And he wants what Russia holds of the southern regions, Kherson and Zaporizhia. He wants to keep all of that. So in fact, although Trump is trying to put the onus very much now back on Zelensky for bringing peace, what he's said there is not as big a lift as what Putin is asking.

4:39So maybe that is an opening. And I guess there was a glimmer of hope, really, that came out of the talks on the weekend. The idea that Putin may have agreed to allow the US and EU to protect Ukraine as part of any deal. Can you talk us through what those security guarantees could mean? Yes. I mean, sources differ on this because you have Trump's personal envoy, Steve Vitkoff, saying, yes, Putin accepted them. We agreed to robust security guarantees that I would describe as game-changing. We didn't think that we were anywhere close to agreeing to Article 5 protection from the United States when the peace deal is codified.

5:27That was a bit of a surprise when he talked about Article 5 because that is the key article that holds NATO together. And what it means is an attack on one member is an attack on all. That would be very surprising if the U.S. was prepared to go that far because it means that the further attack on Ukraine would bring it into the war, would bring the U.S. into a war. And now, Witkoff is an unreliable source. There is a suggestion that the Alaska summit happened in the first place because he misunderstood something that Putin said when Witkoff went to see him in Moscow. and he had the idea that Putin was offering a land swap where Russia would give up some of its territory.

6:08Yeah, I read somewhere that Witkoff had gone to Moscow to talk to Putin without taking a Russian translator. So maybe that's how some of the misunderstandings have arisen. Yes, it's always going into Putin a bit of a mistake. If you allow Putin to offer his own translators, you're immediately at a disadvantage. But it does seem, and this is the, as you say, the glimmer of light, it does seem that Trump and his administration have accepted that they will be involved in security guarantees in some way. It'll be most likely an indirect way, with European troops actually being on the ground to guarantee the peace, but with the US as being some kind of backstop rather than being directly involved.

6:53Now, that is a step forward from Trump's position in the past. And how has all of this gone down with the Ukrainians and with Zelensky? Well, of course, they were extremely alarmed by the Alaska summit. It was a real shock because Trump had been moving towards a position of threatening sanctions against Putin if he didn't agree on a ceasefire. And so hopes have been raising that Trump was coming around to the side of defending Ukraine against attacks. And he did seem to have been outraged by some of the Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities. And all of that was completely turned around in Anchorage.

7:34I think the Ukrainians felt the rug had been ripped from under their feet and suddenly they were back to square one. And so Zelensky has been very successful in rallying European support. I mean, the team he has going is really a sort of dream team of European leaders. They are leaders of the most powerful European states, but also European leaders who get on with Trump the best. So if anyone has a chance of bringing Trump round, it's this group that he has with him. And we're going to come on very shortly to talk about this dream team, who they are and what they bring to the table. But can you just explain how Zelensky views this idea of not being allowed to join NATO, but having NATO-like security guarantees that we've just discussed?

8:22I mean, I think where Ukraine is now, I think they are resigned to the fact that in the short term, at least the medium term, that is the best they can offer. But they want the security guarantees to be solid, to be concrete in a way that would genuinely bolster their defense of what territory they have left after a deal is done.

8:44Julian Borger:It's important that America agrees to work with Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. And we are very thankful to the United States and to the president for such signal. And therefore, for everyone in Europe, this is a significant change. But there are no details how it will work and what America's role will be, what Europe's role will be, what the EU can do. So let's talk about the meetings that are going to take place in the White House later today. First, Trump and Zelensky are going to meet one on one in front of the cameras. We all remember but what happened last time. And then later, there's going to be a longer meeting with a delegation of European leaders.

9:24What do you think Zelensky is going to be hoping for and how is he going to play it? I think he will try and avoid making the mistakes he made last time of being drawn into a sort of shouting match when he was ambushed. He knows that he has very strong supporters waiting in the next room and he can afford to ride out the storm. And I think it would be unlikely there is a repetition of that kind of ambush. So talk us through the dream team. I've seen them described as human shields, almost kind of big brothers and sisters who are going to stop Zelensky from being bullied like he was last time around.

10:00Talk us through the guest list and what are they bringing to the table and what are they going to be hoping to achieve? Well, first of all, you have the leaders of the two big beasts inside the European Union, Emmanuel Macron and Frédéric Merz. Then you have Kirstama, also a big European power, but one that gets on with Trump. He's worked hard on that. And in a way, this is the time now to deliver on the credit he's stored up with Trump. Then you have Georgia Meloni, whose politics Trump very much identifies with, but she is a Ukraine supporter. So the hope is that she'll be a sort of bridge. And then you have Alexander Stump, the Finnish president.

10:44And that is an interesting and quirky relationship because it was struck up on a golf game back in March. And the two of them just got on and they seem to have maintained that relationship. And Stump, coming from Finland, this country with this long land border with Russia, has served as an advisor to Trump about Putin and urged Trump not to trust Putin. And some people credit Stubb's influence on Trump for Trump becoming more skeptical before Alaska about Putin. But all that progress now has been unraveled in Alaska. So he has to, in a way, start again. But he's there very much because he's respected by Trump and has this good relationship with him.

11:36And then, of course, on top of these national leaders, you have the leaders of the EU and NATO. Mark Grutter, the NATO Secretary General, and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission. And I think part of her role in the room will be to remind Trump that it's the EU that's the bigger player as an economy and that Russia is small potatoes when it comes to economic clout about the size of Spain. And it is the EU that signed a trade deal with Trump only last month. And it is the EU which is its leading economic trade partner. And I think that one of her goals and one of her jobs would be to keep him focused on dollars and cents, trade and the economy.

12:26And Mark Rutger is another leader who has worked really hard to develop a good relationship with Trump up to the point of the NATO summit of referring to him as daddy. Again, this is the time to try and use that credit stored up with Trump To try and get a result and try and turn him around And in terms of the specifics What do you think they're going to be asking Trump for And how will they play it? Will it be them sort of sucking up to him? Flattery seems to work when it comes to Trump Or do you think they're going to be playing hardball with him? They will not be playing hardball Flattery is just the starting point It's the sort of the opening gambit to get his attention.

13:10You've seen this from them before they arrive. They're being positive about Alaska. They're sort of determinately seeing it as the positive side of it, that Trump is involved. He's talked about security guarantees, and he's got the ball rolling. And I think what they'll do is try and persuade him that this White House conference they're having is a way of developing it. developing what was achieved in Alaska. And in doing that, try and take him back along the course towards a ceasefire and unpack what he has to offer when it comes to security guarantees. And I think that what they will try and do is persuade him that that is the only way to a lasting peace, that if it goes along the way that Putin is trying to suggest, it will not last.

14:03And And if it doesn't last, then, and this I think will be the main card they have to play, then he will not go down in the history books as the bringer of peace. And if he has any ideas and aspirations of a Nobel Peace Prize, something that he's clearly obsessed with, and make clear that the Nobel Peace Prize is given away for bringing peace, not for capitulation. Well, all will become clearer in the coming hours how all of this plays out and what it means for Ukraine and beyond. Julian, thank you very much. Thank you. That was Julian Borgia, a senior international correspondent at The Guardian.

14:45Thank you so much to him. You can read updates and analysis of what happened in the White House throughout the day at theguardian.com. And that's all for now. This episode was produced by Eli Block and presented by me, Helen Pidd. The executive producer was Khmer Khalili. We'll be back tomorrow.

15:04This is The Guardian.