On the ground in the byelection that could end Starmer

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:08Today, on the ground in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

0:20A by-election is usually only called when something bad has happened. An MP dies. They get sent to prison. Or in the case of Andrew Gwynne, the former Labour MP for Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester, they get embroiled in an embarrassing WhatsApp scandal. Leaked WhatsApp messages include what appear to be homophobic slurs, comments about someone sounding too Jewish, and even wishing death upon a pensioner. Gwynne was suspended by Labour and then retired due to ill health. So tomorrow, his old constituents will go to the polls to elect a new MP. The by-election was called at a terrible time for Keir Starmer, with reform riding high in the polls and his approval ratings at an all-time low.

1:02And then, just when it couldn't get any worse... Now, breaking news here in the world of politics in the UK. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham says that he has applied to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election. His northern nemesis said he would like to be Gorton and Denton's MP. Starmut was having none of it He blocked Burnham's candidacy saying it would cost too much money and energy to hold elections for the Greater Manchester Mayoralty were Burnham to win the by-election and it has not gone down well in Gorton and Denton If Andy Burnham come into Labour I think I would vote for him there's something about him that I like and I think they should have let him run in Denton if he would have run in Denton I would have voted for Andy We would like to vote Labour but what they've done with Andy Burnham if he could stand we'd vote for him We think he'd make a better leader.

1:52If Labour lose, it could be another nail in Starmer's coffin. But what would hurt him more, a Green or a reform victory?

2:05If the Greens win, they prove themselves a viable alternative to Labour and not just a wasted, well-meaning protest vote. If reform do it in the urban multicultural North, they can claim to be building the sort of broad electoral coalition that wins general elections. From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus. Do Labour have a hope of keeping hold of Gorton and Denton without Andy Burnham?

2:41OK, so it is the very last day of January and, somewhat belatedly, the Labour Party are finally going to announce their candidate for this. Gordon and Denton is a very diverse constituency in all senses. It's cut in two by the M60 motorway and it spans two different local authorities, Manchester and Tameside. On a breezy Saturday morning, I find myself in Longside on the Manchester side in a freezing car park outside the Jane Community Centre. Longside is one of Manchester's most diverse communities where 23 % of people are white and just over half of residents are Muslim. Johnny. Hi, how's it going?

3:21Hi. Good to see you. Nice to see you. How are you doing? Yeah, I'm good, thank you. On my way in, I bump into Jonathan Reynolds, the chief whip of the Labour Party and also a neighbouring MP. So how are you feeling about this somewhat cursed by-election? Well, by-election's always a time when you feel the whole glare of the political community in the country on your area if it's next door to you like this one is to Stirlie Bridge and Hyde. But I feel very, very confident in Labour's record in Manchester and in Tameside and in Greater Manchester as a whole. And I feel very confident that Labour's the vehicle to stop reform and I know a lot of people want to do that.

3:57I can't help noticing that he says he's confident in Labour's record locally, not nationally. Right, there's something happening now.

4:08Oh, Angela Rayne has just arrived. Splendid in red. Nice. There's a flurry of activity and Labour's by-election candidate comes out to face the media, to whoops from her supporters.

4:23So here is the glutton for punishment, the new candidate, Angeliki Stoyle. Thank you, everyone. I am absolutely thrilled and excited and I want to thank everyone. I am a proud Mancunian woman. I grab a word with Angeliki, who moved from Greece to study in Manchester decades ago. She's been a Labour councillor locally for years and has twice stood for Labour in general elections and failed both times. She's flanked by Lucy Powell, the deputy leader of the Labour Party, and Anna Turley, the party chair. I've met Angeliki lots of times over the years, and today she seems to be trying extra hard to insist that everything is absolutely fine.

5:03I am so excited that I got selected and I am raring to go. We've got a right fight in our hands, but we've got the people with us and we will win this. And some people see this as a bit of a poison chalice to be the Labour candidate in this really difficult election. Listen, this is Manchester. There's no poison chalice in Manchester. In Manchester, there's hope, there's opportunity, there's Northern grid, and we are going to win this. At the launch so far, all of Labour's rhetoric has been about beating Farage, presenting the by-election as a two-horse race. So my colleague Hannah Othman asks about the other horse, the Green horse.

5:36We know, obviously, the fight between Labour and reform, but how concerned are you about losing progressive votes to the Greens because they're saying they can win this season. The House overlooking the community centre already has Vote Green posters in their windows. And I'd seen Green signs dotted throughout this part of the constituency on my way in. Yeah, I mean, look. Lucy Powell pipes up. The Greens aren't being tied straight with people about this. They've got no councillors in this constituency at all. They've got no real base here at all. You might look at the national polls, but here in Manchester, the Labour brand is particularly strong and resilient.

6:11and in Denton as well, because of what Andy's been doing. We know that this race is between us and reform. But none of you are delusional people. I've known you for many years. You must know that support for Labour has really fallen off a cliff nationally. Do you not feel that? And there's a lot of anger towards Labour as well. Look, I mean, Helen, I think... I'm not trying to pull the wool over yours or anybody else's eyes. We know that support for Labour has fallen since the election. that of course that often happens but what I'm saying to you straight up is that here in this part of Manchester we've still got a really strong base of support so this is a test for whether good people come out in these kind of elections and say we don't want reform and you've got to vote Labour to do that because it's only us that can and will win this seat otherwise I decide to put Powell's claims to the test and go out onto the high street to talk to people So, walking along the A6 main road from the community centre.

7:15See if anyone will talk to me. The car wash guys are looking at me. I'm going to go and ask them. You look like you want to talk to me.

7:30I'm a journalist from The Guardian. Yeah, doing a podcast about the by-election that's coming up. Do you live round here? Do you live round here? Yeah? And are you going to vote next week?

7:40Helen Pidd:Yeah, we're going to do it. Which party? We're going for Labour. Really? Staying with Labour? Why? Because we think it's better than the other ones. Right. It's even better than the new immigration ones, you know, the new Nigel Farage and these things. Right. So you don't like reform? Reform is Nigel Farage's party. Why not? I'm an immigrant as well. So a lot of people came. I paid, myself, I paid a lot of taxes as well. So these policies are anti-Muslims as well and all the labor is immigrants here, most of them. NHS, everywhere you can see. And how does it feel when you hear Nigel Farage and the Reform Party saying, you know, immigrants, even immigrants who've lived and worked here and paid taxes, that they should be sent back home to their countries?

8:30Helen Pidd:It's ridiculous. Yeah, when you hear that, it's a lot of stress everywhere, all the workers who put it in the hood. Because I came from a poor family. We sold everything and we came here. We sold everything, we came here, we got the visa as a skilled worker visa and we are trying our efforts.

8:58Five days after Labour's campaign launch, I'm invited to the other side of the constituency for an audience with Nigel Farage and his by-election candidate, Matt Goodwin. Goodwin is a controversial candidate. He's a former academic who made his name studying the far right. Now, back in the day, he used to write impassioned articles for The Guardian denouncing Islamophobia. Now, he is a GB news presenter and a Reform UK figurehead who asks questions like, is Islam compatible with Western liberal democracy? And says UK-born people from minority ethnic backgrounds are not always British. Not long before I arrive, Goodwin receives an unsolicited endorsement from Tommy Robinson.

9:40Right. Okay, so I've just arrived in Denton, which is the more white working class area of the constituency. Nigel Farage is on his way up here. He's been doing a rally in Wales this morning and he's going to appear with Matt Goodwin. they are unveiling Reform's headquarters for the by-election. So let's see how it goes.

10:11Wow, there's a lot of people here. Hiya. I'm Helen from The Guardian. While we wait for Nigel Farage, I get talking to a Reform councillor called Steve. He's a retired mechanical engineer.

10:25Helen Pidd:Can I ask when did you join Reform? About 18 months ago. and it's the first time in my life I'm now 72 and it's the first time in my life I've ever felt the need the actual need to join a party, particularly the reform, to change things and you said you felt the need, the need to do what? the need to change what? as it is at the moment we've got two parties that do the same thing they promise the earth and then don't do anything one of my hopes is that when reform get in they will change that and can you tell me a bit about your background are you working, what do you do? I'm retired I have probably six granddaughters coming through I've got four already, maybe two more on the way and another driving force for me is that I have a fear for them in the future What in particular are you worried about?

11:23Helen Pidd:The Islamic threat explain what do you mean by that the problem with the Muslims is they will dominate they are taught to dominate through their books and their aim is to dominate and control everything as regards their I'm not even going to call it a religion their ideology because I don't even believe Islam is a religion, it's just a ideology and it's a method, and it's been a method that has been worked out over the last 1400 years to control whole populations of people, to dominate them. Do you really think that? I really do, yeah. You know, this constituency, I think, has got 28 % Muslim, people just living their lives, you know, having families, businesses, working in the NHS.

12:14Do you not take any account of the contribution that, you know, people, your neighbours bring to society?

12:20Helen Pidd:I do, I take that into account, And I don't have any problem. I'm a Christian. I'm a Roman Catholic. And I don't have any problem with the Muslim people in general. The problem I have is that their aim is to change our culture.

12:46As campaigning progresses, questions are raised about the kind of people who've been canvassing for Goodwin. Hope Not Hate, the anti-racism group, reports that he's been joined in Gorton and Denton by a host of unsavoury characters. These include a woman who previously campaigned for Britain First, the far-right group whose leader believes black people cannot be English, and also a Polish man called Adam Metula, who has said that 60-70 % of transgender people are paedophiles and that he would never touch a Jewish woman. Reform has since suspended him from the party. As the wind whips across the car park of the industrial estate, Nigel Farage makes his entrance, brandishing a big pair of scissors.

13:27I declare this office well and truly over!

13:35Then we're rushing inside, where he and Matt Goodwin take questions from the media. Matt Goodwin eyes me suspiciously. I wonder if we remember when we last met, pre-Brexit, when we were both reviewing the papers on the BBC Breakfast sofa. He was very different then. A scholar of Nigel Farage's politics, not a participant. Hi, Helen Pidd from The Guardian. I was just talking to one of your canvassers and asked him why he joined reform. And he said, for one reason only, to stop Islam coming and taking over our country. Are you comfortable with people holding those views being on your side, especially in a constituency where there are 28 % Muslims?

14:10Well, hang on, there are also lots of Christians here and Jews here and people from Judeo-Christian heritage, without which we wouldn't even be a country. because it was the foundation building block of everything. So, yes, people do have concerns at varying levels. By the way, I mean, if you look at the list of our party donors, if you look at some of the senior people within reform, including our mayoral candidate in London, you'll find there are plenty of Muslims supporters as well. But it's a conspiracy theory, isn't it, the great replacement theory, that Muslims have come here and their purpose.

14:44Yeah, Matt, do you want to come?

14:45Helen Pidd:Can I briefly ask, why are we not talking about the issues that Gorton and Denton want to talk about? So if you go into Denton or Gorton after this event and ask them what the biggest issues are for them locally, they will start, I guarantee they will start with labour neglect, labour complacency, cost of living, energy bills, taxes. Go down Market Street in Denton and ask all the cafes and pubs what are the biggest issues. The pubs will tell you business rates through the roof, VAT, beer duty. they're saying how can we actually survive financially when everything is getting so much more expensive they're not out there talking about the things that you're asking us about so I would say go and talk to the people of Gorton and Denton it's an important national debate, of course it is but I don't think it's what, certainly when I was here the other day I didn't hear one person talk about it

15:42So Matt Goodwin told me to go and talk to the people of Denton, which is exactly what I'm going to try and do. I've just arrived in Horton Green, which is a suburb in the far east of the constituency. Fun fact about Denton, it is where the bowl hat was invented. I'm just passing a pub actually called the Jolly Hatters. So I'd say Horton Green is maybe the more upwardly mobile part of Denton. Some kind of quite nice, well-kept post-war semis, as well as your classic northern red brick terraces. I pop into a local shop where three women are having an animated conversation. What were you all talking about?

16:26I can't, I don't think I can say it. I can't say it. Go on, I can't say it. I think everybody's just had enough and they need to put a stop at certain points I'm not saying get rid of them, I'm not racist or anything like that but they need to stop letting them all come in and giving them what they want So you've been talking about immigration have you? That's what you've been talking about Which party do you think should win this by-election here? I would say reform, we definitely need a change, we need to do I was going to say something else then somebody that's got a pair of balls and say what they mean and stick to it.

17:03The conversation turns to the cost of living. How much of a struggle is it now just to make ends meet? I'm lucky I've got a partner that does earn quite a decent amount of money, but some people aren't like that. You know, racking up credit card debts and all that kind of stuff. You know, Klarna is a big thing for people. Is that that buy now, pay later thing? Yeah, buy now, pay never, hopefully. But you have to, don't you? But then everything else goes up, so you're in a knowing situation. The promised gas and electricity come down, isn't it? Oh, I'm in debt with that. What, you're in arrears?

17:38Yeah. Bad. How much? Everybody is. About a grand. Right. Have you got any hope of paying that back? I can't give what I've got, can I? No. And you're working? Yeah. Yeah, full time. The woman, who is a nursery nurse, says she agrees with Nigel Farage wanting to restore the two-child limit on welfare, which Labour recently scrapped. I was just saying then when you were asking, people were moaning about lifting the... Two-child benefit. Two-child benefit. The cap. Right, yeah. I agree with her. I think they should cap it at the same time. I've got three kids myself. But you get people that don't live here coming in with, like, seven kids and they're getting paid.

18:20And playing with the children that they're not even brought with them. No, but don't you think that sometimes people's circumstances change? They have three kids when they've got enough money and then for whatever reason they get sick, they lose their job. It feels a bit unfair to blame... Then the children might be the ones who are going hungry and that's just... Life sometimes deals you a crappy hand. It is also, but then you're putting food prices up all the time. It used to be cheap to go to Aldi and now it isn't. Do you know what I mean? It's the same as Tesco is now. Marks and Spencer's in far off.

18:49Yeah. Do you know? So it's things like that as well that they need to help us out with food. You know, when people... I've got a lot of children. They've got families to feed, you know. Will the world ever be the same? I don't think it ever will. I flagged down a man on a mobility scooter. It's 72-year-old Thomas, a retired joiner and former Labour voter. And I was very attracted to your lovely little dog that's having a ride on the mobility scooter. Can I ask, are you going to vote next week? Probably, yes. Yeah? Who for? Reform. Really? Why reform? well really what's called Matt Matt Goodwin yeah Goodwin I've heard him quite a bit on GB News and other stations and he seems quite competent is the word what would you like them to do what changes would you like to see in the UK and locally here well look Laura migration and probably the main thing is a migration you know and I think that's the main one.

19:52Walking around Horton Green, I don't see many brown faces, I don't see many black faces. Is migration a big thing around here? It can be. Actually, there is quite a few, but it's not always brown faces, is it? You know, it's other people coming in, Arabic people, you know, all sorts, you know, but without being too hard, it seems like they're taking all sorts in without a check. What about the Green Party? They fancy their chances in this by-election? I believe so. I don't know why, but they're the favourites. But some of the things they say, I mean, he said that the leader of the Green Party, quite truthfully, doesn't seem a full shilling.

20:40Really? I don't know. I think he's won somewhere short of a picnic. Yeah. Why? What is it that you've heard about him that makes you think that he's not right in the head? Impotising women to get bigger breasts. Right, OK. Legalising drugs. Right, OK. You know. So the hypnotising thing is ten or so years ago, isn't it, when he was... Yeah, I believe so. A Sun journalist went undercover when he was a hypnotist and asked him to make her boobs bigger. And he said, all right, then. Yeah. I mean, it's probably something psychological, that, but, you know, it's something that's something to come out with, really.

21:30Thomas might not be charmed by Zach Polanski, but the bookies think that it will be the Green Party which overturns Labour's 13 ,000 majority and wins the day. Hi, Zach, I'm Helen from The Guardian. In a deli in the Denson part of the constituency, I meet him and his candidate, Hannah Spencer, a plumber and trainee plasterer who is the leader of the Green Party on Trafford Council. Question for you first of all, Labour Party keeps saying, if the Greens had a chance, Zach would stand himself. He's a Mancunian, why not? What I would say to Labour is they should probably stop obsessing about us in this election.