Rise of the far right in Germany: how worried should we be? – The Latest

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0:45The far right is on the march. Nothing can be ruled out at this point, which is, you know, quite shocking, especially in Germany, given its past. We can't talk about it. It's a disaster. Friedrich Merz has the worst approval ratings of any German chancellor since they've begun measuring such things in this country. That's even worse than Donald Trump's. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoth. Germany's chancellor Friedrich Merz has suffered a set of really terrible results in local elections over the weekend. Deborah Cole, you're a Berlin correspondent. Quite how devastating are these results?

1:29Well, it's really been, you know, another weekend, another election catastrophe for Friedrich Merz recently. And this month, we had three sets of state elections, and each one in its own way was terrible news for Friedrich Merz. And he himself called the results from Mecklenburg, Western Pomerania up on the Baltic coast. I'll call it Mech Pom going forward to make it easier for everyone, as people do here. Yeah, Mech Pom, he himself called a disaster. It was the first time since the Second World War that the CDU party, this venerable conservative party that has traditionally been, you know, one of two parties sort of putting forward the chancellor, that it fell below the 5 % threshold for seats in the state parliament.

2:21So just, you know, a wipeout. Yeah, we should say the CDU, of course, the party of Angela Merkel, who was for so long, this kind of great, steady stateswoman. So to see her party doing this badly is really quite something. You make a good point, because Mechpom was actually where Angela Merkel throughout her political career had her electoral constituency. And Angela Merkel famously being also Friedrich Merz's sort of arch rival within the CDU party. And so whereas she stayed in power for 16 years, you know, Friedrich Merz looks like after 16 months in power that he's on the ropes. Yeah, certainly seems that way.

3:02It was another really strong showing for the alternative for Deutschland party, the AFD, people will know them as an anti-immigration, very far right, pro-Kremlin, close to Russia party who have had another set of very, very strong results after a victory two weeks ago in the state of Saxony-Anholtz. What are the reasons do you think that people are turning to this party in such numbers? Well, because we're dealing with regional elections, you know, each state has its sort of its own issues, its own candidates, its own flavour. But I think that the direction of travel has become, you know, clearer and clearer as time goes on.

3:41It's a rejection by a significant part of the German electorate of sort of, you know, the political establishment of politics as usual. And you have, you know, the AFD becoming this kind of collecting pot for the growing ranks of the disaffected in Germany, people who have just lost faith that the traditional parties are going to be able to solve the problems that are most pressing for them. So, you know, cost of living issues, generally the state of the economy, things like deindustrialization. And so that has been basically AFD was for a long time, you know, the sort of none of the above choice, a kind of, you know, a vote of protest.

4:22And it's increasingly kind of created this culture that, you know, if you don't like the status quo in Germany, you are welcome here. You are welcome to talk about that, especially in the former communist East, where a lot of people feel like they've been treated as second class citizens for the last three decades. So, yeah, a lot of issues in play. Yeah, a lot of very, very complex issues. But we have also seen gains to the left, haven't we? Particularly in Berlin, where you are. people have voted in large numbers for the left-wing party. So as you say, moving away from the centre ground and this kind of, you know, the strength of the CDU for so many decades in Germany now.

5:03I mean, Friedrich Mertz has described these results as a disaster, but he has also vowed to press on. Do you think that's viable given how bad things are for him? Well, you know, there is a general sense that, you know, things cannot go on as they have been. I mean, you can't just have, you know, voters punishing his party and the mainstream in election after election and keep going on as if nothing had happened. At the same time, there are a few reasons why I'd say, you know, the good money might be on Friedrich Mert staying on for at least a little bit longer. I mean, one of the things is that it's quite difficult to replace a chancellor at the top in Germany against his will.

5:48There are constitutional barriers to that. The other thing is that, you know, the chancellery is a bit of a poison chalice at the moment. I mean, Germany has problems that really do look quite intractable. And Friedrich Manz has not been able to find the solution. And people have pointed to things like his communication style and things. But I think that that, you know, kind of underplays how complex these problems are. And so you have, you know, people have mentioned a few men who have been mentioned as potential successors, you see them kind of, you know, biding their time for various reasons.

6:25And so as long as no one is sort of, you know, willing to wield the dagger and go for him, and as long as Friedrich Merz says, I'm willing to, you know, stick it out through humiliation after humiliation, then you do have this kind of, in a strange sense, you know, a stability. But it feels at the same time quite volatile, if you see what I mean. The voter anger is growing and the political class says, no, no, we're going to just keep fighting on. Right. Yeah. You wouldn't want to be in Friedrich Merz's shoes right now. You almost could have a bit of sympathy for him. Yeah, exactly. I mean, you know, here we've had a similar year, I guess, in the sense that there were a set of catastrophic results in the local elections in May that, you know, galvanized the departure of Keir Starmer.

7:14There were similar kind of moves to the right wing reform UK, but a lot of people, you know, Labour hemorrhaging voters to the left to the Green Party, who had an absolutely amazing set of results. And that was a lot to do with Starmer's personal unpopularity. I read some reporting in the German press that this is being kind of called like the Stammer effect, that it's Merz's unpopularity rather than the unpopularity of the centre of the CDU. Do you think there's validity in that? Yeah, I do. I mean, I think, you know, as I mentioned earlier, you know, you can't just put it down to an ineffective communication style.

7:54I think that that really would, you know, kind of whitewash how huge the problems are. But that said, Friedrich Merz, you know, he is a bit of a tetchy character. He really does have something of an empathy deficit. I think in a lot of his arguments for the political reforms, the economic reforms that he says are so necessary to get, you know, Germany's economy moving again. He seems to have put the onus sort of on, you know, working class and middle class Germans that they need to be working harder. And if they would only sort of, you know, pull their socks up, then we could get, you know, Germany moving again.

8:33And for obvious reasons, that's gone over like a lead balloon among voters. I mean, they just, you know, can't hear it as everybody is struggling, you know, to be to be blamed for that, or to be, you know, to have the perception that that the government is blaming you for that is an outrage. And so he has the worst approval ratings of any German chancellor since they've begun measuring such things in this country. One poll last week said that only one in 10 Germans approved of his performance, which is, you know, that's even worse than Donald Trump's in my home country, the United States. So he is just, you know, trying to dig himself out of a hole and talking about communication style.

9:15I mean, can you change a 70-year-old man's, you know, personality and approach to politics and power at this stage in a way that will be convincing to voters? I mean, I'm quite doubtful. Yeah, well, communication style was certainly a big problem for Keir Starmer as well. So there might be some similarities there. Just lastly, Deborah, I mean, it's looking pretty dicey in Europe. We have Georgia Maloney in power in Italy, you know, proving a very, very strong leader there. Her background being very, very much from the far right, although she's moved slightly closer to the centre since taking office.

9:55We've got elections in France next year that we could see the national rally take power there. Although, again, that looks slightly tenuous. And of course, this set of results in Germany. I mean, what could the implications be for Europe if we have a series of very right wing governments across the continent? Yeah, I think we're quite a ways from the AFD taking power in Berlin. Nothing can be ruled out at this point, which is, you know, quite shocking, especially in Germany, given its past. So, you know, that's giving everyone pause. But at this point, you know, they don't have the support and new elections are not yet looming.

10:42But if they did manage the AFD, which is, you know, is more extreme, more radical than any of the parties you just mentioned in other countries, then it would give the far right a kind of momentum that, you know, it's hard to predict what could happen. I mean, you have, as you mentioned, you know, France, Italy, but also Poland and Spain having elections next year. And in each of those countries, the far right is on the march. And so if the AFD did manage to create, you know, that much sort of instability, political instability in Germany, then I think it could have an impact beyond Germany's borders.

11:20That's a worrying picture, Deborah. Thank you so much. Thanks, Lucy. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Deborah Carl, The Guardian's Berlin correspondent. You can keep up with all her reporting over at theguardian.com. And I really recommend today's episode of our sister podcast, The Audio Long Read, about a bungled bomb plot in Poland that exposed a spy. But who was he spying for? Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus, we beckon your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Angus Neal. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin.

11:56The executive producer was Zoe Hitch. And it was presented by me, Lucy Hough.

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