Russia’s high-risk game in Nato skies

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:09Today, what is Russia up to in European airspace?

0:23It was just past midnight in the early hours of Tuesday morning when the drones were spotted over Copenhagen Airport. Authorities said the pilot was skilled and appeared to be showing off those capabilities at the region's largest airport. For four hours, all flights were suspended. It was, said the Danes, the most serious attack yet on its critical infrastructure. At the time we're recording this, no one knows definitively who was responsible. But one man, who knows a lot about drones, was certain that he knew the answer. It was Russia, said Vladimir Zelensky. In the last two weeks alone, Russian drones have been spotted above Poland and Romania.

1:06Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk has confirmed that Russian drones were shot down in Polish airspace overnight. He said it was the first time this had happened. And on Friday, three Russian fighter jets flew into the Estonian airspace above the Gulf of Finland. Because Estonia's government says three Russian military jets entered NATO airspace without permission on Friday morning. You won't be surprised to hear that Russia denies that it's up to anything nefarious. Today we're compelled to be here to watch part two of this spectacle entitled Blame Russia for Everything.

1:46But what on earth is Putin playing at? From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus. How worried should we be about Russia's violation of NATO airspace?

2:03Dan Sabah, thank you for coming back to Today on Focus on what is a very busy day, although it's always a busy day when you come in to see us. Thanks for being here. It's okay. Lovely to be on. Thanks very much. So you are the Guardian's defence editor, and you've been watching very closely over the past few weeks a series of incidents involving Russian planes and drones flying over EU airspace. And we're talking on Monday afternoon as authorities in Denmark and Norway are trying to figure out who sent in drones to violate airspace in the early hours. Russia may or may not have been responsible for that, but the Russians have certainly been causing consternation in recent weeks, haven't they?

2:40And it all started a couple of weeks ago over Poland. Tell me what happened there. Since that Alaska summit, in a way, with Donald Trump, what we've actually seen is sort of Russia gradually sort of stepping up his escalatory actions in Ukraine and now into NATO countries in Europe. Breaking news out of Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has confirmed a military response operation is underway following multiple airspace violations. Polish and NATO jets were scrambled And we saw an extraordinary event a couple of weeks ago where something like 19 Russian drones drifted over into Polish airspace, some of which flew over via Belarus, not a normal flight path for attacking Ukraine.

3:20and though it turned out that these drones were Gerbera drones, so decoy drones unarmed and so not in themselves particularly dangerous, that's not immediately obvious at the time. It prompted actually a very rare NATO military action within the territory of an alliance member in Europe, but it prompted Poland to scramble jets. It also prompted the Dutch who were on patrol in the area to scramble jets. Tonight, scattered over hundreds of miles across Poland, the remains of Russian drones shot down by NATO forces. It's the first time NATO has opened fire on Russian aircraft over its territory since the start of the war in Ukraine.

4:00And it prompted a full-spectrum military response to what was easily the most sizable incursion into NATO airspace by Russia. Yeah, I feel like it was overshadowed a little bit. The day it happened on the 9th of September, Israel attacked Qatar, and I feel like eyes were kind of elsewhere because it was actually a pretty extraordinary thing that happened over Poland. Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister, actually said, didn't he, in response that he felt that the country is closer to military conflict than any time since the Second World War. Well, that's probably right, although I don't think a military conflict is very likely.

4:33Russia doesn't have the capability to launch a full-scale invasion of Eastern Europe or anything like that. But what we are seeing is a degree of Russian provocation that nobody really thought possible and Russia's always been very wary about incursions or into NATO airspace, into NATO territory. Really what we saw with the Polish incident was this is on a scale where it was a sort of, this wasn't a grey zone deniable event. This is a very clear provocation, a kind of ya-boo to NATO. We're not scared of you. We're willing to send multiple drones into an allied member. Yeah, I mean, extremely provocative at the very least.

5:12And it didn't stop there, did it? What happened after this Polish drone attack? Romania then reported the incursion of a Russian drone onto its airspace. Not in anything like the degree of Poland. Leadership in Romania not happy about this after their airspace was breached, saying that it threatens to destabilise the whole region. This, as NATO, is still reeling. And actually, what we saw on Friday, you know, arguably another step up. This time, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets went into Estonian airspace over the Baltic Sea for a 12-minute period. We begin with Estonia, which has described an incursion by Russian fighter jets into its airspace as unprecedentedly brazen.

5:54It says three Russian military jets entered the NATO country's airspace without permission on Friday morning and stayed there for nearly 12 minutes. Now that might not sound like a lot. I can assure you 12 minutes is a long time in the aerospace business. We all know how fast planes can fly. And this is a relatively small area. And said NATO responded immediately and intercepted the Russian jets, which had violated Estonian airspace, adding this is yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO's ability to respond. At the time we're talking, it looks like it's not confirmed, but it looks increasingly likely that perhaps three Russian drones were hovering into Danish airspace and forced the closure of Copenhagen Airport overnight.

6:42And also in the early hours of Tuesday morning, there was some suspicious activity in the skies above Oslo Airport as well, which led to Norwegian airspace being shut for four hours. so just to recap in the space of a fortnight you've had about 20 drones flying into poland some of which were shot down a few days later you've got another russian drone this time entering romanian airspace before it eventually entered ukraine and then last friday it wasn't drones it was actual fighter jets flying over estonia hovering there for a very suspicious length of time until they were politely asked to leave and they were escorted out by nato planes And then there's also this Copenhagen incident.

7:22It really is quite the list, isn't it? What do you think Russia's up to? Is it just a weird game of chicken, do you think? I think there's a bit more to it than that. There clearly is a greater sense of threat. Russia is doing things that were previously thought that they would never dare do. But over the last months, it would appear that there's been a kind of stepped-up campaign of provocation, troublemaking. This has the potential to continue.

7:59Can you just talk us through the sort of military logistics that face countries like Poland or Romania or Estonia when they spot these drones or even the fighter jets in their airspace? Presumably they don't have very long to think, ooh, did that mean to come here? Talk us through the decision-making that will go on in the cockpit. There are pilots ready to go immediately. Jets can be scrambled, got in the air very fast. How fast? Like five minutes? Quickly. On Top Gun? Very, very quickly because you don't have a lot of time to play with. I mean, a Gerber drone, that's a kind of Russian decoy drone that might fly 100 miles an hour.

8:39That's quick, but not quick by aerospace terms. But nevertheless, it's quick. So there's a bit of time to – there will be a bit of time to react. And yes, you've then got to take a decision about what you might do. Now, pilots will have rules of engagement that we're told in broad terms what they can or can't do. That's sort of set by commanders with reference to politicians. But then on top of that, you've got to take a decision. Look, is the drone armed? Is it not? Is it a threat? Is it not? Where is it flying? Is it flying into – is it flying towards fields and open country, in which case I don't need to worry about it?

9:13Is it flying towards a built-up area? I do need to worry about it. But if it's flying over a built-up area, I can't shoot it down. And it's a threat. I can't shoot it down because where will the debris go? So you've got to take a lot of – there's a lot of decisions that need to be taken like that and taken quite quickly. What do I shoot it down with if I use a missile? The missiles are expensive. What if I'm using a million-dollar missile to shoot down a$10 ,000 drone? You've got a lot of decisions to take in a very short amount of time. Yeah. And I guess sort of at the heart of all this, the pilots and the military commanders are walking a tightrope between deterrence and the risk of escalating the conflict.

9:57Well, I think deterrence, you're getting into a very important principle here, which is a sort of about when you start to talk about airspace violations. And if you're talking about one country's airspace is not another country's airspace. And if you are talking about drones or planes, particularly unpiloted planes, and they're going to linger over another country's NATO members airspace with an unclear intent, if it is safe to do so, then you will see drones and indeed potentially aircraft shot down. There is now a real risk or real possibility that we'll see a Russian jet, you know, the Russian jets carry on in this fashion like they did over Estonia.

10:42There is a real risk that a Russian jet will be shot down by a NATO plane. There will be then some kind of political fallout from that. It has happened before and a crisis didn't break out. In fact, deterrence was established and it happened in 2015 when a Russian jet flying back from Syria flew over Turkish airspace. I think quite, not by much, nor repeated warnings from the Turks. The jet was shot down and there were many Russian complaints. The Turks didn't apologise and kind of apologise to smooth things over. But the bottom line was the Russians didn't do it again. Why is it such a big deal for another country, especially when that country is Russia, flying into your airspace for a few And it's like, why is that a problem?

11:29Dan Sabbagh:Okay, there are two reasons. There's a practical reason. And obviously, we don't quite know what's happened in Copenhagen, but it's a good example. If you have drones or aircraft not under your control flying into your airspace, then one of the first things that happens is that commercial airports will be closed. And of course, that's what happened actually in Poland. Commercial airports were closed. And it's very easy to close an airport because you only need one unidentified flying object, if you will. Yeah, yeah. So there's a kind of everyday impact on the commercial life of a country. But there's a sort of second point, really, and that's a kind of fundamental point.

12:05Dan Sabbagh:I mean, your airspace are part of your borders. And if you're not defending your airspace, then, you know, what are you doing? And if you have, you know, aircraft, probably transponders turned off, as is the case in Estonia, not communicating what they're doing, and they're sort of floating around even the margins of your, flying around the margins of your airspace, then you've lost control of something that's quite fundamental. A country has to sort of defend or protect its airspace. So that's why it matters.

12:47Yeah. And I mean, we're talking about threats to NATO countries. What have NATO figures said about the sort of dilemma in the past few days about escalation versus deterrence?

13:00Dan Sabbagh:As we speak, NATO allies met. This is at the request of Estonia to discuss the Estonian incident and generally sort of Russia violations of airspace. Allies affirmed yet again that our shared commitment to collective defence is unshakable. We do not want to see a continuation of this dangerous pattern by Russia. You know, they put out a joint statement and they were sort of very clear, you know, NATO's response to Russia's reckless actions will continue to be robust. Russia should be in no doubt. NATO and allies will employ, in accordance with international law, is the important phrase, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and to deter threats from all directions.

13:47Yeah, there was one quote from the Polish Foreign Minister, Radislav Sikorski. If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don't come here to whine about it. You have been warned. Thank you. Would you say that NATO is presenting a united front? I mean, the United States, of course, is a key member of NATO.

14:19Dan Sabbagh:Well, I think the key question here is, what's Russia try to do? Yeah, what are they up to? It's a bit puzzling. Russia doesn't have the military wherewithal to take on NATO in a fair fight. Nothing like this. But one of the things it's doing is clearly testing resolve, military resolve, but really political resolve. and the relationship between NATO European allies and the United States. What's your reaction to Russian drone incursion into Poland? Could have been a mistake. Could have been a mistake. But regardless, I'm not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation. But hopefully it's going to come to an end.

14:59Dan Sabbagh:And it's clear the US has already settled. At the beginning of the year, the US said, you know what? when it comes to the military domain, we're not going to put more conventional military into Europe. Actually, we're going to probably start pulling it out. When it comes to Ukraine, you're going to have to do, European allies are going to have to do all the heavy lifting in supporting Ukraine. You're going to have to defend yourselves against Russia. So you're seeing Russia sort of test out how far the Europeans are willing to sort of work together and act together. Now, so far, in response to the Polish incident, more and more European allies have said, hey, we'll provide more jets to help out, step up the patrols, including the UK with some typhoons, but also France, Germany, actually Denmark as well.

15:42Dan Sabbagh:But the Americans haven't offered any military contribution. But then you've got to ask a kind of slightly deeper question, which is, is Russia trying to make sort of spread the conflict from Ukraine? Maybe to test out whether European publics really want this level of conflict in the background, but also are the Russians trying to sort of cause ripples in such a way that perhaps lead to some sort of break or row between the US and Europe. Now, that hasn't happened yet. And European allies, members of NATO will work very hard to ensure that doesn't happen. But well, you know, what's the one thing we all know about Donald Trump?

16:17Dan Sabbagh:You know, he's so unpredictable. Mr. President, do you think that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace? Yes, I do. Coming up, if this is the new normal in Europe, is NATO ready?

16:49I think I know the answer to this, but how have the Russians taken responsibility for any of this?

16:55Dan Sabbagh:the russians haven't really said a lot and they've gone they've gone quite heavily into denial or they were flying on their way to klinig grad and i mean what are you what are you talking about sort of classic kind of russian responses and they will always do that kind of thing so you have to judge them on their actions and you know not their words yeah i think what you might want to see is a kind of wider context two things i think if there were any notion of of ukraine peace talks after the Alaska summit. Once that broke down and you saw all these also Russian escalations of the war in Ukraine, now we're in a scenario where Russia's saying, look, there are no peace talks of any kind, everything's on a pause.

17:33Dan Sabbagh:So you're seeing this sort of widened, heightened Russian aggression. And I think what you've also got to see, I think, here is that the UK, the West might not think it's in a war with Russia, but there's definitely a sense when Russia, you know, thinks it's at war with us. And do bear in mind that there was, you know, or the Russians said, there's no reason to doubt it in this case, that, you know, 40 or so drones were shot down while heading toward Moscow on Monday night. So in the same, roughly the same timeframe as the incident in Copenhagen. And that in turn forced three Russian airports to close for safety reasons.

18:12Dan Sabbagh:So, you know, the Russian mindset is to some extent, you know, Europe, the West is arming Ukraine. NATO is conducting these long-range drone strikes affecting Russian airports. And I'm not saying this is legitimate. I'm just saying this is how conflict develops and sprawls. then the Russians might say, well, why don't we see how Europe likes it? And that might give the Europeans and the Americans some cause for thinking about their level of support for Ukraine. I mean, and the Europeans certainly don't like it, but is there any sign that their reaction is to go cold on Ukraine or is it quite the opposite, sort of doubling down, would you say?

18:58Dan Sabbagh:I think the sign is certainly not to go cold. And I don't think anyone wants to be, no one is saying they're intimidated by these kind of threats or anything like it. But, you know, we've seen a greater kind of military response from Europe, more jets in the air. But certainly we are going to see Europe spending more on defending European skies, mostly against what have been so far relatively low-cost incursions by Russia, cheap decoy drones largely. And you have said that Russia just doesn't have the capability, the capacity to extend its sort of ground war beyond Ukraine because it's so focused there.

19:44But if it does carry on with these incursions into European, into NATO airspace, do you think that NATO countries are ready?

19:55Dan Sabbagh:So there's two ways of thinking about this. firstly if we see the sort of pattern events recurring i mean one of the things i think that was particularly troubling about what happened in poland was that there was something like 19 drones flew into poland the poll said three to four were shot down i mean that is a very low proportion when if you're ukraine you are saying that you're sort of shooting down on you know 80 to 90 percent of Russian drones that are coming at you. And remember, Ukraine faces barrages of anywhere up to 800 drones. Now, it should be added that there were no casualties, but you've got a scenario where NATO didn't look like it was at its best.

20:39Dan Sabbagh:And afterwards, at a press conference on the Friday following the incident, which is in the middle of the week, NATO's supreme military commander said, we always learn something in the debrief, which is another way of saying, we didn't do that well. Failure is just learning how to succeed better. Indeed.

21:07Dan Sabbagh:And then there's another question. And it's a different, think about a different kind of scenario. And although it feels like the war in Ukraine is a forever war, and maybe that's how Vladimir Putin thinks, but he could stop it very, very quickly, actually could announce a ceasefire very, very quickly, and with the aim of hanging onto the territory that Russia already holds. You've got a Russian military with 600 ,000 troops and a Russian war machine with the capacity to make dozens of drones a day in plants deep inside Russia. And suddenly you've got this sort of capacity, which rather than being sort of used on a daily basis, can suddenly start building up.

21:50Dan Sabbagh:Meanwhile, NATO European allies have said they're willing to deploy a so-called reassurance force, this coalition of the willing exercise, inside Ukraine. So you've got Russia here. Suddenly, are these practice runs testing out NATO's defenses, forcing NATO to incur cost? Are they practice runs for a less stable future where we may see more of this kind of sort of, you know, nuisance activity, provocative activity, maybe more than that, militarily dangerous activity in the East? You've not done a very good job of reassuring me that everything's going to be okay, Dan, but I thank you nonetheless.

22:36Thanks for coming in.

22:36Dan Sabbagh:I would just say one thing. I think it is worth emphasising that all these things are well within NATO's military capacity to deal with. But we're talking about something that is imposing, you know, nuisance and cost rather than something that is likely to be fundamentally dangerous to people. that was dan sabber the guardian security and defense editor thanks to him you can read all of his coverage of this story at theguardian.com and that's all for today this episode was produced by tom glasser and amelia gill and presented by me helen pidd sound design was by ross burns and the executive producer was sammy kent we'll be back tomorrow