Starmer, Trump and the shaky ‘special relationship’

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:06Today, Starmer, Iran and the shaky special relationship.

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0:53By the way, I'm not happy with the UK either. The so-called special relationship between the US and the UK has taken a bit of a battering this week. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with. I will say the UK has been very, very uncooperative. Donald Trump was especially unhappy that Keir Starmer initially refused to let the Americans use British bases, including one on the Chagos Islands, which are quite handy if you want to attack Iran. With that stupid island that they have, that they gave away and took a 100-year lease, having to do with perhaps indigenous people claiming the island, they never even saw the island before.

1:43What's that all about? Even though Starmer has since changed course, Trump remains in a hoof. But at Prime Minister's questions on Wednesday, Starmer insisted that the special relationship was just fine. British jets are shooting down drones and missiles to protect American lives in the Middle East on our joint bases. That is the special relationship in action. Sharing intelligence every day to keep our people safe. That is the special relationship in action. Still, Kemmy Baden-Ock said he was putting himself before his country. They might not like to hear it, but they are going to hear it. Mr Speaker, whether they like it or not.

2:24Is it not the truth that he is prioritising his job security over our national security?

2:35Starmer's response to the war has shifted over the past few days. But is there anything he can say to silence his critics? From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus. Why Starmer's position on Iran is pleasing no one.

2:57Rafael Baer, you're a Guardian columnist and you, like the rest of us, have been following the fallout of the attacks on Iran on Saturday. And how did Starmer initially react to the news?

3:10Rafael Behr:Well, the Prime Minister's position at the very beginning was, I think, characteristically judicious to the point of cagey. The United Kingdom played no role in these strikes. But we have long been clear. The regime in Iran is utterly abhorrent. Essentially, the view was we're not going to say anything that's going to condemn American action. The US is still an ally. We're not going to be hostile to what the Americans are doing. I condemn Iran's attacks today on partners across the region. But with a clear undercurrent of wariness as to whether or not this is a good idea, and in practical terms, not allowing RAF bases in the region and indeed in the UK, because there's a refueling option, obviously, if you're flying across the Atlantic to use the UK, not allowing those assets to be part of the offensive operation.

4:09Rafael Behr:And that it's entirely precedented. Sometimes the UK will say, look, you know, this is this is a US operation. This is nothing to do with us. But more generally, when the Americans go in somewhere, it is almost automatic that the British prime minister says, look, if you need to use RAF equipment as part of that, uncomfortably or not, we'll let you do it. And so it was, I would say, fairly remarkable that he quickly said, no, look, that's not happening this time. Yeah, on the basis that it was illegal. And, you know, this is Starmer, the human rights lawyer again, who has sometimes been a bit missing in action when it comes to condemning questionable decisions made by the Trump administration.

4:51For example, I think when Trump effectively ordered the kidnapping of Maduro, Starmer was pretty reticent in terms of criticising that operation, wasn't he?

5:02Rafael Behr:Yeah, and there's a number of different things going on here. I think you're right that the undergirding of the UK position is about what is legal in international law. And then overlaid on top of that is also a very clear political understanding that this was going to be spectacularly unpopular with a lot of people in Britain, particularly with Labour MPs, particularly with Labour voters. So I think Stommer's motivation is statecraft and law. I think it probably helped him hold that position that also the politics of this were more on the side of let's not just go all in with Trump. I mean, bear in mind also in terms of how his position has shifted towards the current White House regime recently.

5:46Rafael Behr:A similar change happened when Trump was really going off the deep end in terms of his ambitions to take hold of Greenland. And again, to begin with, there was a very moderate, the prime minister's stance was essentially, he hinted that if there was any difference, it would be expressed in private behind closed doors and he wasn't going to come out and condemn the US president. And then he did, over the course of a couple of days, when Trump's position was just so bellicose and the Europeans were absolutely freaking out, Stummer did nudge the dial more towards criticism. And then in this case, again, we've seen, I think, more significantly now within 48 hours of that initial Stummer position, a shift to say, well, for defensive purposes, given what the scale of the Iranian retaliation has been and the indiscriminate nature of it, scorched earth is the term that Starmie used, obviously RAF bases and equipment can be used defensively.

6:49The United States has requested permission to use British bases for that specific and limited defensive purpose. we have taken the decision to accept this request why do you think he made this u-turn do you think that it was a pragmatic response to a fast-moving situation or is it just yet another flaky starmer you know you just he changes his direction like the wind i would be wary of calling it a u-turn

7:26Rafael Behr:actually, just because there is actually a conceptual difference between saying, use our bases to go and fire missiles on Tehran as part of a project to remove the Iranian regime or assassinate senior figures in that regime, and saying, when the Iranian response to that is throwing missiles at any country that is aligned with the US, can perceive to be an ally of the US, including RAF bases in Cyprus, UK allies elsewhere, that the UK military actually has an obligation to do something about that. I mean, the bases on Cyprus, that's sovereign UK territory. If a drone attacks it, I don't think anyone would realistically expect the UK position to be, that's fine, that's not our problem.

8:14Rafael Behr:It automatically has become the problem. So to say, in light of what has now happened, the UK military will be operational in a defensive stance, but still not part of the offensive operations. I think those are consistent positions. The problem is the politics of it. It looks very much like Storm has started off saying, this is not our war, we're watching from the sidelines, and now is saying, well, it kind of is becoming our war, so we'll tiptoe towards more involvement.

8:54And how much of Starmer's decision making do you think is influenced by his desire to always attempt to keep Trump on side? hugely this is the most significant foreign policy parameter that he has at the moment

9:13Rafael Behr:and frustrating though it is to those of us who think the trump administration is appalling trump himself is a despot and a maniac and very dangerous and a lot of what he wants is hostile to to what i see as uk interests personally it is also the case that for decades uk foreign policy has rested on the assumption that the relationship with Washington is the most important one. And as a result, particularly in the sphere of defense security, all the systems, the chains of command, everything are thoroughly enmeshed. If you get under the bonnet of what a defense and security apparatus actually looks like in terms of whether you need software upgrades to run your fighter planes, whether you need satellite data to have a good intelligence operation, really important stuff that keeps Britain safe, there are keys and codes and switches that the Pentagon has that can turn off Britain's safety in ways that the Prime Minister is extremely aware of, but doesn't say it aloud.

10:12Rafael Behr:And so he really doesn't have a lot of choice to come out and have what is called in conventional parlance, the love actually moment. A friend who bullies us is no longer a friend. And since bullies only respond to strength, now onward, I will be prepared to be much stronger. That would be a nice romantic thing to do that would gratify a lot of people on the liberal left. In hard rail politic terms, it's a really dangerous thing to do. And as one cabinet minister said to me, you have to understand how massively exposed Britain would be if the US decided one day you're not our friend anymore. How, especially in the context of Brexit, how isolated, how actually dangerous to Britain that would be in a global context.

10:57And do you think we are seeing a rupture in that relationship now in terms of how Trump reacted on Saturday to Starmer's initial refusal to allow the US to use our bases and then him saying, OK, you can, but only for defensive purposes?

11:12Rafael Behr:There are so many interlocking parts of this that all are difficult to disentangle because Trump's personality is so volatile. And you never know when he says something. Is that a caprice of the moment? Is that a position that will actually manifest as action in policy? Will it manifest as action in trade policy? So the language has been quite stark, given that it was surprising how well Trump and Stolmer seemed to get on to begin with. Now, suddenly, Trump said, well, you know, Stolmer's no Churchill. You know, it's very sad what's happened to the UK. It's covered in windmills, he calls them, wind turbines.

11:52They've got windmills all over the place that are ruining the country, ruining the landscapes, ruining the beautiful fields.

11:58Rafael Behr:There's Sharia Law. He just went off on one about a load of culture war talking points. You have a terrible mayor of London, terrible. He's an incompetent guy. But you have Sharia courts. What that means in terms of an actual policy change in the US, it's really hard to say. But certainly, if you are the prime minister, you need to be worried that it turns into the unraveling of trade agreements on technology, that it turns into a spiteful imposition of tariffs on cars. You don't know, but that's the danger. The uncertainty is pretty alarming. Yeah. And I just wonder what you make of how other European countries have approached the Iran issue.

12:44I'm thinking particularly here of Spain.

12:46Rafael Behr:Well, again, there's an object lesson in how things could go wrong. I mean, Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish prime minister, was the most forthright, I think, among European leaders in saying this is wrong. This shouldn't happen. It's illegal. It's going to be a disaster. And he has felt the force of Trump's anger even more than Starmer. And now Spain actually said that we can't use their bases. And that's all right. We could use their base if we want. We could just fly in and use it. Nobody's going to tell us not to use it. He said, we're going to cut off all trade with Spain. So we're going to cut off all trade with Spain.

13:28We don't want anything to do with Spain.

13:29Rafael Behr:That's obviously not something the UK wants to experience. It is, again, worth really underlying here the difference between being in the European Union and not being in the European Union. Because ultimately, although Donald Trump might really hate Spain and want to punish Spain in terms of trade, there is a common external tariff to the EU. Spain is part of the single market. He can be culturally abusive to Spain. But in reality, the relationship is between the US and the European Union. And in trade, it's between the White House and the European Commission with a bit of European politics behind that.

14:05Rafael Behr:It's very different to the relationship between the US and the UK. And as I say, the UK is just more exposed in that level. We are this sole trader out in the Atlantic. And the downside potential to really getting on the wrong side of Donald Trump, if he decides to lash out economically, is greater, I think. Coming up, why Nigel Farage and Kemi Baden-Ock may come to regret calling for Britain to fully join the war.

14:53Scotland has natural beauty in abundance, but beyond the stunning landscapes, it's a fertile ground to build, grow and succeed, filled with people who are ready to push boundaries in the pursuit of breakthrough ideas. That's why today, Scotland is a dynamic hub of opportunity across growth sectors, from clean energy and life sciences to digital technology and space innovation. Scotland, for the head, heart and the spirit. Discover more at theguardian.com forward slash brand Scotland. This message was paid for by Brand Scotland. Parles-tu français? Hablas espagnol? Parli italiano? If you've used Babbel, you would.

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16:08Chicago, 2011. A cop is murdered. Police and prosecutors swear they have the trigger man. He swears he didn't do it. How far will each side go to prove they're right? Like it's just one bombshell after another. You know, you're like, what? What? The story of a PlayStation, a brain-eating amoeba, and the relentless pursuit of justice. Off Duty, coming soon. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Raph, this has come at a very bad time for Starmer domestically. Labour, of course, came third behind the Greens and reform at the Gorton and Denton by election last week. And there was a YouGov poll on Tuesday which put the Greens above Labour, second to reform, were there to be a general election tomorrow.

16:54So essentially, Starmer's popularity is in the toilet. How do you think this will impact him politically?

17:01Rafael Behr:In terms of the broader political prospects for the prime minister, as you say, in the context of losing a by-election to the Greens, absolutely terrible poll ratings, is does any of this now really shift the dial when you've gone to a place in polling that pretty much by historical precedent, no one ever comes back from? Now, I've put this to Labour ministers. I put it to people who are the last remaining friends of Keir Starmer. And they will say, we live in massively unprecedented times. Who knows? You can't just write anyone off. All sorts of unexpected things happen. But the reality is at a certain depth at the bottom of the ocean, the pressure of water above you just crushes the life out of you and you can't float back up again.

17:49Rafael Behr:Keir Starmer is in that place. Yeah. And how are the leaders of the other parties confronting the Iran issue? This is fascinating, I think. I mean, the easy one is on the liberal and the left side. So Ed Davey and the Greens are able, because of who their supporters are, because what their positions have always been to say, this is a mistake, it'll go wrong, look at all the precedents. We have seen before what happens when an American president launches an illegal war with no idea how or when it is going to end. And we fear for what comes next. Zach Polanski for the Greens has been more forthright.

18:28Rafael Behr:He's called for Keir Starmer to condemn the war. I understand why he says that. I don't think it's a very realistic thing to expect a UK prime minister to do, to condemn a US president in the middle of a war in bold terms. But Zach Polanski isn't the prime minister. And so he can say that. And I think a lot of people will wish that was something that Keir Starmer would and could do. Dragging the UK into another illegal war does not make us any more safe. And polling shows over and over again that the majority of people in this country do not want our UK bases to be used by US military. And the only reason why this is happening is Keir Starmer is incapable of standing up to Donald Trump.

19:08Rafael Behr:All these things are true, but they're also kind of platitudes because there were negotiations and the Americans ignored what was happening and then just assassinated. the supreme leader of Iran. So to have an anti-war position that essentially comes down to, well, we wouldn't start from here and we wish the world were different and we wish we weren't entirely dependent on the US, has a kind of moral resonance to it. It's not actually a policy prescription that the prime minister can use. On the right-hand side, that's even more interesting because there, both Kemi Badenok and Nigel Farage were all in straight away absolutely gung-ho behind it yes the uk should jump on board with this look there are times to say no to the americans absolutely you know we should have said no a couple of times in the last 25 years and of course because saddam hussein didn't pose any direct threat to this country they had to invent a threat i would argue in the case of iran since the 7th of october this country has fundamentally changed as a result of terrorism funded by Iran.

20:17And frankly, if this operation stops Iran getting a nuclear weapon, it would have been worth it. And I believe that very, very strongly.

20:29Rafael Behr:I mean, Kenny Bainock made quite a peculiar statement. Across the UK, there are groups whose political loyalties when it comes to conflicts in the Middle East do not align with British national interest. These are people who Labour see as their voters because without them, they cannot stay in power. She said that the only reason Starmer's wibbling about these, I'm paraphrasing here, the only reason Starmer's wibbling about international law is actually because he's pandering to certain people who, you know, when it comes to the Middle East policy, their instincts don't align with British interests.

21:05And what's that, a dog whistle?

21:06Rafael Behr:Well, yes, there's just a whistle. There are Muslims and Labour MPs have them in their constituencies. And therefore, the idea that the UK would be in a position in an international arena where it's effectively fighting on the same side as Israel would be absolutely toxic to those people, to Labour MPs, Kirsten was afraid, therefore he's not doing it. And somewhere in that, there is a political observation of a fact. It is true that a lot of Muslim voters will be very upset about the idea of another gung-ho intervention in the Middle East, particularly on the side of Israel. And a lot of Labour MPs will be very uncomfortable if the UK seems to be associated with that.