Trump’s Iran deal: the art of the fail? – The Latest

0:00Patrick Wintour:This is The Guardian.

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1:26Patrick Wintour:There was a lot of admissions in there about how he had no option but to pull back. In terms of what was achieved in this specific war, very, very little indeed.

1:36Nosheen Iqbal:From The Guardian's Today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Noshin Iqbal. Patrick Winter, welcome back to The Latest. You're The Guardian's diplomatic editor and you're here to talk us through the deal that US has struck with Iran. signed in very sort of glitzy fashion by Trump at the Palace of Versailles off the back of the G7 summit, which is an interesting choice.

2:04Patrick Wintour:Yes, it is. I mean, I think only a man of total historical ignorance, i.e. Donald Trump, would agree to sign a document like this in Versailles because Versailles is a sort of byword for national humiliation for the Germans after the First World War. And I'm sure that it was also a moment of triumph for the French, and I'm sure that the French President Emmanuel Macron will have fully understood the significance of the signature at Versailles. Yes. Quite cheeky. It has a sense of humor about it all. But I don't actually think the whole document does represent in any way the kind of surrender that obviously happened with the Germans in 1918.

2:47Patrick Wintour:but it is um it was just amusing that it was there well let's talk about the detail because

2:53Nosheen Iqbal:in the agreements there was discussion of well there's women on rand's nuclear program there's discussion of sanctions relief um to what happens on the strait of hormuz once the talks are over but patrick from everything i'm reading tell me i'm wrong but from everything i'm reading this looks like a terrible deal for trump you know the u.s appears to have no real wins and it has made many more concessions than were even in play before the war began.

3:19Patrick Wintour:Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, there are aspects to which I think one has to reserve judgment because so much has been deferred and one doesn't know how the ultimate outcome of the talks, particularly the nuclear talks, which are the main point of deferral, how those will end up. But it's absolutely true that in order to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened, which obviously was open before the war, he's paying quite a high price. There is a requirement now that sanctions are lifted on all of Iran's oil exports, and it may be necessary for that to work, that banking and transport and other sanctions waivers have to be implemented as well.

4:04Patrick Wintour:In addition, there is this$350 billion fund. I mean, it's true that Trump says that the Americans won't contribute more than 10 cents to this fund.

4:17Nosheen Iqbal:This is the reconstruction fund. Yes, the reconstruction fund for Iran.

4:20Patrick Wintour:Funded by? Well, that is one of the mysteries because he says that America won't fund it. But the document does say that America will create it. I think it's actually one of the mysteries in the document because I don't see there's a great willingness amongst Gulf states to pour money into Iran at present because they're still recovering from the fact that Iran bombed them throughout the war. And there's a real element of distrust between the two sides. So it may sound a good figure and it may sound dramatic, but I'm not sure how important it is. on the strait, though it is being reopened, it's only being reopened for 60 days on the basis that it will be free navigation.

5:01Patrick Wintour:And then there's a section that was inserted quite late in the negotiations in which it says that Oman and Iran together will decide whether there is a way in which they can charge a sort of maritime service fee. So like a toll to traverse the strait? As ever, it depends on how compulsory this fee payment is, because a toll is obviously something that is totally compulsory. And whether, in fact, there would be a service that you would be voluntarily seek to buy is obviously in question.

5:31Nosheen Iqbal:So from what you're saying, and again, from what I've read, it does feel like Iran's come out on top here. I mean, experts say that Iran's about to make a lot of money, given that the US is going to give back billions in frozen Iranian assets. And, you know, as you've said, waiving sanctions on oil, clearly making them better off before the war began.

5:50Patrick Wintour:Well, you've got to remember also, you've got to remember they've also had suffered a vast amount of damage. And maybe that 350 billion number is supposed to reflect the level of damage that's actually happened inside Iran. but if at the end of this whole process as the document suggests and there's a satisfactory nuclear agreement all sanctions of any kind will be lifted by America so that's primary and secondary all UN sanctions will be lifted as well that's huge yeah and then I think it's worth also adding that in the press conference which was also a wild event as ever with Trump at the end of the G7 he gave further ground in the sense that he accepted that Iran had a right to enrich uranium domestically, which is probably the single cousin's belly of the whole war.

6:42Patrick Wintour:And he also accepted that it would be possible for Iran to dilute this stockpile of highly enriched uranium inside Iran, where previously he'd insisted it had to be exported abroad. So you can already see the parameters of the nuclear negotiations, which obviously are very open at the moment. But you can see America giving ground, red lines disappearing in the dust every time Trump spoke. So, sure, we're going to have to think what was achieved in this war. And I think if you look at what Iran was willing to do before the fighting started. Well, quite. I was going to come to this.

7:21Nosheen Iqbal:In February, I mean, he seems to have struck the same deal that they had before the war began when it comes to the enriched uranium. And also has also then said that there's no expectation that Iran will stop its ballistic missiles program. And so, I mean, like you say, the huge cost of this war, human and economic, all those things, but for nothing? Well, it's not for nothing in the sense that you've got to remember also that Iran's sort of enrichment plants have been destroyed in the previous war, in the 10-day war last year.

7:53Patrick Wintour:So, you know, that is a big change in the whole climate. But in terms of what was achieved in this specific war, absolutely very, very little indeed. And I think it was also telling in this press conference, Trump started talking about if we'd let this war go on, there was no way in which the Strait of Hormuz was going to be opened. The ship owners weren't prepared to take the risk. He said we were close to a world recession. And he said we were maybe just weeks away from running out of oil. So there was a lot of admissions in there about how he had no option but to pull back. And you then go back to the feeling, well, surely you should have foreseen that the straight-of-form moves was going to be a problem for America.

8:40Patrick Wintour:And I said this on – I was already struck on a previous occasion that there's this body called the International Energy Authority. And when they have new recruits, they ask them two questions for job interviews. And the first is, why do you want to come and work for the IEA? And the second question is, what would you do if the Strait of Hormuz was closed by Iran? So it's a kind of doomsday scenario that everyone has in the back of their head the whole time. But the Americans and to a lesser extent the Israelis didn't really think through how they were going to deal with this.

9:14Nosheen Iqbal:Well, let's come back to the Israelis now because a lot of this deal seems contingent on what Netanyahu wants to do next. Because, you know, there seems to be disputes over whether Lebanon would be part of the deal. And Netanyahu said Israel wouldn't leave occupied land. But the very first point of the agreement declares immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Now, just this morning, we've seen a person being killed by an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon. And Israel has seized swathes of the country. How much is this contingent on what Netanyahu wants to do?

9:49Nosheen Iqbal:And do we know what that's going to be?

9:51Patrick Wintour:No, I think it's probably the biggest stumbling block, which is too minor a word really to use in this context, for the agreement. Because Iran has put such store by ensuring that Lebanon was included in this agreement. There was an end to the war on all fronts, is the phrase they've used. And it's true, it's not clear that there has to be, in the document, there has to be an Israeli withdrawal. But there has to be a ceasefire. And that's not happening. and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed group in Lebanon, believe they've got an undertaking from the Iranians that they won't go to a final stage of an agreement in this document unless there is an Israeli withdrawal and not just a ceasefire.

10:37Patrick Wintour:So that is a big, big problem ahead.

10:39Nosheen Iqbal:And finally, Patrick, Trump has said that only jealous, bad or stupid people don't understand how great this deal is for Trump and for the US. But what are we hearing from Iran? How has the deal gone down there? And what are we hearing from officials?

10:54Patrick Wintour:Well, I mean, I think there is a sense of sort of quiet resolve and triumph inside Iran. And there's a lot of back slapping and mutual congratulations as to, you know, the people stood together, the army had behaved heroically, etc, etc. But there are two sort of kinks in that. One is that there are hardliners who think that they should have stuck out for even longer and that the Strait of Hormuz was a weapon they could have used to even more effect. So there is a kind of revolt amongst this group of hardliners. And the second issue is that even if there is economic relief for the Iranians, it's going to happen over time.

11:37Patrick Wintour:And at the moment, there is a real economic crisis inside Iran. Inflation is close to 80 percent, food inflation 130 percent. And people are really struggling. People are having to change their diets. And then there's another group, I was speaking to some yesterday, who are also just devastated because they believe this whole conflict would end in the collapse of the regime. And instead they feel they're going to have a Putin-style authoritarian figure running their country. And they are genuinely devastated. So the idea that the country is totally in a state of celebration is, I'm sure, more a state of relief, really.

12:20Nosheen Iqbal:Mutant at that. Patrick, thank you so much for explaining all of that. Thank you. That's it for today. Thanks again to Diplomatic Editor Patrick Winter. Before we go, do check out the latest episode of Stateside with Kai and Carter, where they're covering the growing number of clinics in the US, charging parents tens of thousands of dollars for an unproven autism treatment. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus, we'll be back with you as usual tomorrow morning and The Latest will be back tomorrow evening. This episode was produced by Annie Levespa, the senior producer is Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer is Zoe Hitch.

12:57Nosheen Iqbal:The presenter was me, Noshi Nikbal.

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13:33Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.

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