Why did Trump chicken out on Greenland? – The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:11Europe kind of found a bit of backbone. We heard some language of the kind that we haven't really heard from European leaders before. We do prefer respect to bullies and we do prefer rule of law to brutality. The threat of additional tariffs for security reasons is simply wrong. There is a real lingering sense in Europe that something pretty fundamental has been broken. It seems Donald Trump has finally chickened out over Greenland. So can European leaders finally give a sigh of relief? From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hough.

0:55joining me is john henley the guardians europe correspondent thanks so much for being with us john it's really great to see you so walk me through what's happened because obviously we've had a couple of weeks of pretty strident and aggressive threats from donald trump about his ambitions for greenland whether to buy it or perhaps even use military force to to take it But he seems like he's been walked back from the brink by European leaders. What's happened? Yes. So Trump addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos in Switzerland yesterday. And I think what's fair to say was a very keenly awaited speech.

1:36I mean, it was a long and typically rambling. I mean, I would say perhaps more rambling than usual. It was an extraordinary watch in its sort of waywardness, some appalling outward racism, but also repeatedly calling Greenland Iceland in a way that we can assume he meant Greenland. Yes, exactly. I mean, and it went off and he kind of digressed into, you know, his pet hate of wind energy and had talked about uncontrolled immigration and how Europe was going to the dogs and what have you. But the key point was that he did rule out the use of force to take Greenland. He said that he could, but he wasn't going to.

2:19And then a couple of hours after his speech finished, he had a meeting with the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter, the former Dutch prime minister, and announced after that that he had dropped a threat that he had made last weekend to impose 10 % trade tariffs on eight European countries that had sent a very small number of troops to Greenland, essentially to kind of bolster Arctic defence and Greenland's defences, which is one of the big asks of the US government. But I think also it's fair to say as a kind of warning shot to the US president, should he be really seriously thinking of military action.

3:07So crucially, this would be about giving the US some permanent territory from which to establish a US base, right? I mean, the details are very hazy. And Trump, as is his way, seems to have announced this before that the real details have been threshed out. But that would be done in cooperation with NATO. And that seems to have been Mark Rutter, the Secretary General's big success last night. That's right. I mean, I think Rutter did definitely who, you know, he's called a bit of a Trump whisperer, not for nothing. And famously sent him messages calling him daddy that were leaked, listeners may recall.

3:44Yeah, exactly. And he has flattered him. And he refused pointedly, very pointedly at the WEF in Davos to sort of, you know, enter into any kind of criticism whatsoever. I mean, making the pretty fair point, I think that, you know, if he did comment in public, that would make it very difficult for him to act as a mediator and a negotiator in private. And that approach does seem to have worked. What's happened is that they have agreed what Trump called the framework of a future deal. Sources have been telling various different media, sources close to the discussion that was held last night, that the kind of broad basis of the deal will be around a 1951 bilateral agreement between Denmark and the US.

4:36Now, this agreement, And essentially, it gives the US the right to install military bases on Greenland, to deploy pretty much as many troops as they like, and whatever kind of equipment, particularly the sort of missile defence system, this golden dome that Trump is talking about. So I think the sort of the framework for the deal will involve, you know, significant reinforcement of NATO forces and NATO's presence in the broader region and a renegotiation of this 1951 deal that will allow the US to pretty much put what it wants on Greenland in terms of sort of military capacity. I mean, the fact that this has been an option for the US since 1951 under the terms of this deal that was struck then suggests that this has always been an option to the White House had it wished to sort a diplomatic solution to this.

5:35Donald Trump will say that this has been a triumph for him, that his hardball strategy of tariffs and threats will have come through. And he'll be looking to play that with his base back home. The reality is very different, isn't it? And really, this is a deal that could have been struck through diplomacy much earlier. But I mean, we have various people claiming victory from the European side. I mean, they will have to tell Trump that a deal has been struck and that he's got what he wanted. and sort of kissed the ring for him. But we have others, Mark Rutte, Emmanuel Macron, saying that he's played a blinder because of the trade bazooka, the big threat of retaliatory tariffs from Europe.

6:15Keir Starmer here saying, oh, this is because of my softly, softly diplomacy. So lots of people trying to take credit in this. Yeah, lots of people trying to take credit. And a few voices of maybe not scepticism, but certainly wary, wary voices. I mean, yes, you're absolutely right. You know, Georgia Maloney was one of the sort of the first out of the blocs yesterday evening to say, essentially claiming victory and saying, you know, that Italy had always believed we had to keep the channels of negotiations open with allies. And Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor this morning, has said, you know, that this all really highlights the importance of the transatlantic alliance.

6:58This was very visible yesterday and the day before in Davos and in the run up to the World Economic Forum that, you know, Europe kind of found a bit of backbone. And we heard some language in Davos of, you know, of the kind that we haven't really heard from European leaders before. Emmanuel Macron was talking in terms of a new imperialism and a new colonialism. Mark Carney, obviously, in a speech that went absolutely viral, talking about the need for middle powers to middling powers to kind of unite and stand up. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, saying that Europe was at an absolute crossroads and was now operating in a world that was defined by raw power and that it had to be able to act in a more united fashion and also much more rapidly.

7:53if it was going to keep its head above water. And finally, I think what might have swayed Trump possibly more than anything else was the reaction of the stock markets as soon as he announced the tariffs, which was a plunge across the board, really. They were the three-way combination of the market reaction of Europeans sounding really a lot tougher and Rutter, who I think clearly has provided Trump with some kind of off-ramp. But it's a sort of unsteady truce, isn't it? I mean, Trump has as ever proved himself to be an unreliable ally, even if he has rode back from his most aggressive threats of tariffs, of even military force.

8:44The EU no longer can trust that transatlantic relationship. And it's very possible that Trump, if he feels that he looks weak around the world or that this plays badly at home, he may well change his mind. I think there is a real lingering sense in Europe that something pretty fundamental has been broken. As the Belgian Prime Minister Bart Deweyver said, you know, in his speech, I think the day before yesterday, basically, you know, we are staring in the face the possible end of 80 years of Atlanticism. There are still these dissenting voices in Europe. Europe, as always, is divided on, you know, on pretty much everything.

9:24And there are certainly national leaders in Europe who are still very much in favour of appeasing Donald Trump wherever, wherever possible. There are two strategies prevailing in Europe. One is like de-escalate, de-escalate, de-escalate. The other is escalate, but in order to be able to de-escalate later. And I think that that was the Macron von der Leyen approach, basically to show that Europe has got some clout and is not prepared to be pushed around. But obviously not to cut relations altogether and to seek to continue, you know, at least the semblance of a transatlantic partnership and alliance for the future.

10:08John, it's really historic times to be living through, isn't it? Thank you so much for your time. that's it for today my thanks again to john henley you can keep up with all his reporting over at theguardian.com thanks for listening to this episode of the latest the new evening edition of today in focus today in focus we back in your feeds tomorrow morning and we'll be back tomorrow night this episode was presented by me lucy hoth the producers were brianie moore and oliver holmes the lead producer was zoe hitch

10:42This is The Guardian.