Why gasfield attacks are major escalation in Iran war – The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:11There is a genuine degree of panic over this. It creates the possibility of an energy crisis that drags on, you know, for months, if not for several years. We hold the cards. We have objectives. Those objectives are clear. You know, when this started, I had my head in my hands because none of this makes sense. It doesn't make sense in terms of how you manage a conflict diplomatically. They don't seem to have a story. The White House claims it knew nothing about an Israeli attack on a gas field in Iran. But can it be believed? And what does it mean for already soaring energy prices around the world?

0:45From The Guardian's Today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hart. Joining me is Peter Beaumont, The Guardian's senior international reporter. Thanks so much for coming up to the studio, Peter. So Israel has struck Iran's South Pars gas field, which is this enormous, it's the biggest gas field in the world, isn't it? Yes, it's the biggest gas field. At the same time that there is this effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, this very vital passage in the Persian Gulf, which has hugely disrupted the oil market. Tell me about this strike that Israel has carried out and why it is so significant as an act of aggression.

1:22Well, as you said, the South Pass gas field is part of the biggest gas field in the world. It's shared with Qatar. And I mean, it's all one system. So, I mean, it's not like, you know, here's the Qatari part and here's the Iranian part. It's all joined up. So this produces some of, you know, most of the world's liquefied natural gas. And it's the first time that we've seen tit-for-tat strikes on kind of, you know, upstream oil production extraction facilities, i.e. where the stuff comes out of the ground. And that's kind of really important because up till now it's been on kind of port facilities, on tankers, things that can be sort of like reversed quite quickly.

2:06But this is kind of the pointy end of kind of energy production. It's kind of, you know, where it comes out of the ground. It's where it's kind of packaged up, sent into the world. And the issue with it is that these things, when they're damaged, take a very long time to repair. So it creates the possibility, even if the war were to end tomorrow, of an energy crisis that drags on for months, if not for several years. Yeah, because you've damaged this vital source of supply, these complex infrastructures that are incredibly complex and difficult to rebuild. So like you say, even if the war ends, we're not talking about weeks or months, this could be a year-long problem that just comes to supplies.

2:46Look, after the war in Iraq, which I covered, I mean, there was lots of kind of energy facilities that were damaged during the invasion. The Americas were in control of Iraq's south. It took two years, even with access of American contractors, to get sort of oil production roughly back to where it was before the invasion. Here we're talking about sort of LNG facilities. They're particularly problematic in terms of repairs. So this is liquid natural gas. Liquified natural gas. You know, they're particularly vulnerable to damage. You know, a lot of the experts are assessing that, you know, these are not things you can fix quickly.

3:26It's a big job. And that means that you're effectively choking global energy supplies. I mean, you know, it's a problem for Iran because it's the South Pars field, but they've retaliated by hitting Qatar's and doing extensive damage to Qatar's LNG production facility. And that's kind of, you know, one of the biggest sources of natural gas globally in the world. And a nation that is very keen not to get drawn into this war. Yeah, and we'll come on to a bit more of the implications of that. But I think interesting to listen to what Trump's been saying since this happened. He claims that he knew nothing about the strikes, but there is reporting at the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere at Axios that he was informed about it.

4:12I mean, regardless of that, and we probably won't know for certain, the fact that Israel would carry out these strikes, even if there was hesitation in Washington, speaks to something about the way that this conflict is being led by Israel. I mean, look, I mean, it's not a credible denial. I mean, we know from the Snowden files that the US keeps a very close eye on what's going on in Israel. This is a joint military operation that's basically an air campaign. I mean, they're going to have extensive kind of joint military air control. You know, you don't want to be flying a jet up there and not know what your other partner is doing.

4:49They're going to have a sense of what the Israeli flight plans were. They almost certainly knew this was going to happen. I mean, are we surprised that Trump's lying because it gets him out of a hole? Well, not particularly because, I mean, he lies all the time. But it does suggest that, you know, there is a genuine degree of panic over this. We've just been hearing from Pete Hugseth, the US Defence Secretary, self-siled Secretary of War, who has been addressing the US public directly. He's accusing the media of wanting Americans to think we're somehow spinning towards an endless abyss or a forever war or a quagmire.

5:26That couldn't be further from the truth. but again we just can't take that as as plausible given the complexity that you've been outlining absolutely not i mean look you know i spent four years covering the war in iraq and during that period you know u.s officials endlessly say look how brilliant it is we got rid of saddam look at look at how much better everything is and you go to them so well there's been a sectarian murder in this suburb or this and i've just come from the funeral and it's like yeah well you expect a few broken eggs that kind of stuff and it was always the same thing no this isn't heading towards civil war and then, oh, wow, we're in the middle of a really, really violent civil war.

6:01I mean, I was talking with an expert about this yesterday. And, you know, the US officialdom in those days and their planning was profoundly unimpressive. Yet it looks like leagues ahead of kind of the people who are involved in this conflict. And in terms of analysis, criticism, organizational skills, I mean, you know, when this started, I had my head in my hands because none of this makes sense. It doesn't make sense in kind of diplomatically. It doesn't make sense in terms of how you manage a conflict. It doesn't make sense in terms of a kind of story that you tell yourself if you're in charge of this war about where you think it's going, because they don't seem to have a story.

6:41They don't have a story. And it's unclear to me how you can then plan for an aim that isn't clear in your mind. Which has also so severely damaged global supply chains, oil prices to surge, it's caused stock markets to tumble, people already seeing their energy petrol bills starting to rise. That is going to be politically very damaging, not just for Trump and for other governments too. I mean, it's absolutely toxic. I woke up this morning, you know, gas price month the head futures what 30 percent uh you know about an hour ago i checked the stock market i mean the footsie was down over two percent you know those are our pensions i mean that's kind of how we heat our homes i mean these uh you know how we fill up our cars and and it's you've got to remember that this isn't just about kind of energy you know there are byproducts to to to these extraction processes i mean the production of sulfur for phosphate fertilizers i mean some of these plants feed into other downstream products you know including you know chemicals i mean this this isn't just about sort of gas and kind of the black oily stuff it's it's about every corner of of the economy you know the flights we take to go on holiday plastics it it's everything and it's kind of it's staggering that no one thought this through.

8:07And so just lastly, briefly, Peter, I mean, can we look at this act of aggression in the South Pars gas field as a kind of final flurry of aggression before some kind of diplomatic solution is tried to be thrashed out? Or do you think this is the start of a much longer protracted conflict? Obviously, we live in incredibly unpredictable times, and it's very difficult to predict the future. I'm torn between the two. I mean, kind of wars can end quite violently. I mean, the 2006 war in Lebanon. It's possible that this is kind of a final gesture by Israel to say to Iran, we've done this, now stay down.

8:45the alternative is that the war does drag on but my feeling is that the the global economic shocks have been so profound that there's going to be huge pressure on Israel and Washington which you would hope would lead them to try and find a way out but I mean given the individuals involved I mean who can predict who can predict indeed well thank you for your expertise and thank you for your reporting, Peter. Thank you. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Peter Beaumont, Guardian Senior International Reporter. You can keep up with his reporting over at theguardian.com. And do listen to today's episode of our sister podcast, Politics Weekly, which is looking at mounting pressure on Kemi Badenoch to sack her shadow justice secretary after he described an event where Muslims gathered to pray in Trafalgar Square as an act of domination.

9:38Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. The producer was Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

10:04Chicago, 2011. A cop is murdered. Police and prosecutors swear they have the trigger man. He swears he didn't do it. How far will each side go to prove they're right? Like it's just one bombshell after another. You know, you're like, what? The story of a PlayStation, a brain-eating amoeba, and the relentless pursuit of justice. Off-duty, out now. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. This is The Guardian.

10:40Thank you.