Will Trump make a deal with Iran’s new supreme leader? - The Latest

0:00Patrick Wintour:This is The Guardian.

0:30Patrick Wintour:innovation. Scotland. For the head, heart and the spirit. Discover more at theguardian.com forward slash brand Scotland. This message was paid for by Brand Scotland.

0:47Patrick Wintour:The potential is he's going to last three hours or three decades.

0:58Patrick Wintour:He's in mortal danger because the Israelis have said they will try to assassinate whoever was chosen. Trump has been relatively, by his standards, quiet about condemning him since his appointment. I imagine he's also looking for a way out of this war given where oil prices are.

1:14Lucy Hough:Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son has been named as Iran's new supreme leader. So who is he and what does it mean for the war? From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoth.

1:28Lucy Hough:I'm joined by Patrick Wintour, the Guardians' diplomatic editor. Patrick, thanks so much for coming up to the studios. So we are now 10 days into this war, 10 days since Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike. his successor his son Mujtaba has now been announced what do we know about him?

1:50Patrick Wintour:Well it's it's an extraordinary thing to think that we need another injection of unpredictability and uncertainty into this war but that is one element of his appointment because I think there's actually only one video extant of Mujtaba's speaking in public and although he has been a huge power behind the throne for two decades as a sort of deputy chief of staff inside the Supreme Leader's Office. So there's this contrast between knowing little about him in public, but he was clearly incredibly influential privately.

2:24Lucy Hough:Right, and he'd never held elected office or even really been in any public-facing senior position, right, unlike others that were close to Ali Khamenei. So is his choice a sort of symbolic one because it is a dynastic handing down from father to son, do you think at a time obviously of war?

2:43Patrick Wintour:Well actually I think the dynastic element was a big obstacle to overcome because it's resonant of this being a monarchy which was what the revolution was designed to get rid of so that has actually been a problem and I think it's been one of the causes that has been a lot of people have been resisting his appointment for that very reason. Why he's been chosen is partly in a wartime there's uncertainty about what to do and there was no clear obvious candidate apart from him the the candidate that probably the supreme leader ali khameini had wanted had died in a helicopter crash two three years previously and i think there was no absolute certainty even that khameini wanted his son to become leader but the irgc which is the islamic revolutionary court the uh works alongside the official army is incredibly powerful and i think they were advocating his case very strongly.

3:36Lucy Hough:Right. So the IRGC was close to Mujtaba Khamenei and they seem to have been very influential in this decision. So does that mean that Mujtaba Khamenei will be in charge of the war efforts from now on? How clear cut is that?

3:48Patrick Wintour:I don't think normally he will be in charge of the war efforts. I mean, I think he might be more in charge of these decisions about how to end the war rather than how to conduct it. I mean, that is a kind of military issue. And I think the big strategic decision has been made by the Iranians wishes to attack not just Israel, but also these Gulf states, which is obviously a very effective thing that they've decided to do, but it's also causing them a huge amount of diplomatic angst. So I think I'll be more involved in those kind of political diplomatic decisions rather than which missile being sent where.

4:20Patrick Wintour:And one of the elements of this war is I think we've seen a big devolution of power and decision making about targeting. And that was announced in effect by the IRGC very early in the war.

4:32Lucy Hough:How prepared was the Iranian regime for this to happen? I mean, clearly Iran must have been looking overseas at what happened in Venezuela with the strikes and the capture of Maduro. They were also aware that there had been direct strikes on Iranian very senior officials a few months ago. So there must have been contingency planning for the event of Ali Khamenei's death.

4:55Patrick Wintour:Well, there's been planning and discussion and rumors around his success for 20 years, given he's 86, but was 86 rather. The assassination and the effectiveness of the assassination, because so many other people were wiped out, did take people by surprise. And indeed there was doubt as to whether the Machu Picchu himself had survived because not only has his father died, his mother has died, I think his wife has died and many other relations. So you wonder about actually his emotional state just as a human being as well as his own physical state because there were rumors that he'd been killed as well.

5:35Patrick Wintour:And we've yet to see him in public. And so we don't know exact physical state he's in.

5:40Lucy Hough:But also stepping into a role, given what's happened to his father, I mean, unimaginable security around him, one expects given the infiltration of Israeli intelligence into Iran that allowed them to carry out this strike on Ali Khamenei. I mean, we heard from Donald Trump last week saying that Mujtaba Khamenei would be an unacceptable choice. Israel has indicated that it would try to kill him. Is it safe to say that his days are fairly numbered?

6:08Patrick Wintour:Well, the potential is he's going to last three hours or three decades given his age. But yes, he is in mortal danger because the Israelis have said they will try to assassinate whoever was chosen. And they will also try to assassinate the people that chose him. The Gulf states have been mentioning this privately that actually Trump has been relatively, by his standards, quiet about condemning him since his appointment. he was a bit more cautious and talked about let's wait and see because if he is still in favour of this Venezuela option of finding a leader inside Iran he needs to find somebody and it may be that this is the character he needs particularly since I imagine he's also looking for a way out of this war given where oil prices are he can't just assert as the way he does is I will choose the next supreme leader that is just not going to happen.

7:08Patrick Wintour:This is a sovereign nation which is incredibly proud of its own history and its rights, and it's simply not going to let that happen. So I think he needs to, for a moment, reflect on whether this is a man that has a younger man, whether there's a possibility he's more pragmatic and less stuck in his ways because his father had become incredibly entrenched in his thinking. So at least he should test out what this new leader represents.

7:35Lucy Hough:But for Iranians, the name Khamenei will be synonymous with the brutal crackdown earlier this year on protesters, tens of thousands reportedly killed, many of them very young university students. I mean, for them, this must be devastating to have the son of Khamenei who carried out such a brutal crackdown on its own people.

7:56Patrick Wintour:Yes, I mean, I don't think there's any point pretending that there's a huge element of continuity in this appointment. I mean, the name is enough. And I think there was also an argument which is pretty subterranean and hard to grasp. But I think there was an attempt to try to delay the announcement by more reformist groups who were arguing, well, we don't really know what the political context in which we're going to be operating when this war ends. And would it not be sensible for the current transitional leadership, which was of three people, to remain in situ until we knew how the war ended and what Iran would obviously need to have a huge debate about its future at the end of this war.

8:41Patrick Wintour:And whether you are sort of, in a sense, predetermining or kind of precluding how that debate can go by making the announcement of the new leader before the debate can start. That was the argument that was going on inside the leadership. There was also an argument about whether in fact it is just simply too dangerous to try to bring together this body that was to elect the new leader, the Assembly of Experts. And there was a lot of subterfuge as to whether, and it's still unclear whether they did actually meet fully in person or whether only parts of the Assembly met.

9:12Lucy Hough:Today in focus, we'll be doing a longer look tomorrow morning at the view inside Iran. But for now, I mean, is it safe to say that Iran is entering the second week of this conflict in a relatively strong position, given you touched on oil prices, but they have shot to over$100 a barrel, which is at the levels not seen since the Ukraine war in 2022 or the start of that conflict. But also the fact that if the intention of the US and Israel was to bring about regime change, The fact that a member of Ali Khamenei's own family has been appointed shows that that has been unsuccessful, to say the least.

9:50Patrick Wintour:Yes, I think to a degree the appointment could be seen as an assertion of sovereignty by Iran against America. But to say that Iran is winning this conflict is probably deeply premature. I mean, the whole of the state is being demolished in terms of the police force, the political institutions of the state. And the Iranians simply have no control over their airspace. It's run by Israel and by America. It's true, the oil price is a big problem. the Straits of Hormuz being shut is a huge bonus for the Iranians because in a way they're not absolutely enforcing that. It's almost a kind of decision by the shipping companies themselves that it's too dangerous to go through.

10:41Patrick Wintour:And the very fact that they've survived for a whole week from their perspective is a triumph. And they will say and assert, and it's very difficult to measure, that there's been, as there was in June last year, a rally around the flag effect. No country likes to be attacked, however much they may disagree with their own government. There is obviously a section of society that still welcome the American offensive. But as more and more people die and more and more of Iran is laid to ruin, the more there will be people that say that they oppose this American activity. And that strengthens the regime.

11:20Lucy Hough:Yeah, and much could change very quickly as we now know. Patrick, thank you so much for your time.

11:25Patrick Wintour:My pleasure.

11:26Lucy Hough:That's it for today. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus. Today in Focus will be back with you tomorrow morning with the view from inside Iran, with the hopes and fears of Iranians about what comes next. Also, do listen to our sister podcast, Politics Weekly UK, on the political response to the oil price shock. The Latest will be back with you tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

11:58Patrick Wintour:This is The Guardian.

12:25Patrick Wintour:clean energy and life sciences to digital technology and space innovation. Scotland, for the head, heart and the spirit. Discover more at theguardian.com forward slash brand Scotland. This message was paid for by Brand Scotland.