Zelenskyy’s clever play to win over Trump at G7– The Latest

0:11This is a defence crisis for Europe. It's an economic crisis for Europe. This is existential. Look, Russia should make a deal. Russia's lost tremendous amounts of people, and so is Ukraine. The crucial thing in that is that he is expecting concessions from Putin as well. That's a step in the right direction, and that would be welcomed by European leaders.

0:33Nosheen Iqbal:From The Guardian's Today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Nashi Nickvall. John Henley, thank you for joining us. You're The Guardian's Europe correspondent. It is day one of the G7 summit, where world leaders are gathering in the French Alps, and all eyes today are on Donald Trump. Who else? Now, there's a lot of attention being paid in trying to get Trump to focus on the Russia-Ukraine war could be something of a mixed blessing. But what are European leaders hoping for? I mean, they're essentially hoping to keep Donald Trump on board and to get him to agree to at least an agreed set of parameters for ongoing talks over Ukraine.

1:19I mean, Trump arrived at this G7 summit with quite a head of kind of diplomatic and political momentum because of the deal on Iran. You know, albeit it's very vague. Nobody really knows yet what's in it. It could all come to nothing. It doesn't look very convincing. But, you know, he arrived with that in his pocket, as it were. And what European leaders are absolutely terrified of is that he will take the momentum from that deal and try and move it forward into a deal between Moscow and Kyiv that dramatically favours Russia rather than Ukraine. So European leaders are just absolutely desperate to keep him on board, keep him focused, try and get a kind of coherent, unified, strategic approach to Ukraine out of him.

2:15That's what they're looking for.

2:16Nosheen Iqbal:Because that sort of favourability to Moscow, it is a real worry, isn't it? I mean, Trump confirmed this morning that he'd had a very good meeting with Zelensky. He's due to have another one today. He did also say Russia should make a deal. It's a very simple statement. But John, how significant is it? Because he's not exactly been consistent in his condemnation of Putin or in his support for Zelensky in these last few years. No, exactly. I mean, I think he has a very transactional relationship now with Zelensky. I think that's the key thing. Zelensky is playing it really quite cleverly. I think, I mean, he's massaging Trump's ego as hard as he can.

3:01Trump said he had these good talks. Zelensky in turn has said, you know, only Trump can do it or maybe only Trump can solve this problem. You know, and it's clear that, you know, Zelensky also wants, desperately wants permission essentially to manufacture Patriot missiles in Ukraine. So he's keen to get that out of Trump. Trump is, you know, we've moved on clearly from that extraordinary blow up that we all remember in the White House when when J.D. Vance and Trump essentially insulted Zelensky in front of everybody.

3:42Nosheen Iqbal:It's humiliating. Well, yeah, we've now moved on to a much more transactional kind of relationship. And as regards Putin, you know, Trump has long trumpeted his kind of special relationship with Putin and boasted that he's capable of solving the situation and stopping the war, essentially, with a single phone call, which clearly isn't true. But he did acknowledge today at the G7 summit, you know, that there is an awful lot of kind of animosity, at least between Zelensky and Putin, which is progress from Trump. And as you say, he said, you know, pushing Moscow to get a deal done. And I think, you know, the crucial thing in that is that it kind of acknowledges that he is expecting concessions from Putin as well.

4:37In order to make a deal, you know, he's clearly demanding that Putin make some concessions. That's a step in the right direction and that would be welcomed by European leaders.

4:46Nosheen Iqbal:Let's talk about the concessions on the Ukrainian side, because, you know, after that explosive White House meeting, Ukraine and the US did sign a deal on critical minerals, which means that the US will share profits in any future mineral or energy resources that Ukraine has, which obviously can't really come into full play until the war is over. So I wonder, John, how much is that partnership worth to Trump and how much do you think it's incentivising him to get this peace deal going? Well, it clearly will be motivating him for the simple reason that, as you say, this U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, as it's called, it gives basically 50 % of all future licensing revenue from the extraction of, yes, of critical minerals, of lithium, titanium, gas, energy gas, etc.

5:39in Ukraine. The whole package of that is estimated to be worth something like$14 trillion. So there's potentially a lot of money in there for Donald Trump. But the crucial thing is, is that 50 % of those reserves, more than 50 % of those reserves are in underneath territory that is currently occupied by Russia. And so, you know, Trump can't, as it were, cash in or American companies can't cash in on this agreement until the war is over. So that clearly will be a motivation. I mean, we know we've seen in the past how much, you know, commercial interest, the extent to which commercial interests, you know, motivate Trump and his family and the whole kind of Trump money making machine.

6:27So, yeah, that will certainly be at the forefront of his mind as well.

6:32Nosheen Iqbal:I wonder what you make of some of the statements coming out of the summit today. And I'm thinking about Ursula von der Leyen, the Europe Commission president, who said Ukraine is holding the front line, even partially regaining territory. And she goes on to say that, you know, the country has developed the capability to strike strategic targets deep inside Russia, has become world leading in terms of producing cutting edge military equipment. and on the other hand Russia is feeling the strain and the pressure. John, how fair do you think this is an assessment of the war as it's going? Yeah, I mean I think it's as regards Ursula von der Leyen's comments, they're kind of a mix I think of sort of strategic optimism but also a good dose of reality.

7:17I mean, it's absolutely true and that the leaders at the summit today essentially agreed that Russia is not winning this war. I mean, it might not be losing and Ukraine might not be winning either, but Russia certainly isn't winning. And so in that case, that's a very fair assessment.

7:42Nosheen Iqbal:She does suggest that Ukraine has the edge here, though. I mean, you say neither side are really winning and there's something of an impasse. Well, you know, I mean, I would just think it's unrealistic to say that Russia has lost. So, yes, Ukraine is succeeding in striking deep into Russian territory, but the front line is still really bitterly contested and a very, very tough place indeed to be. And as we saw yesterday, Russia is still very much capable of launching really big full scale drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian targets. You know, as the summit was effectively getting underway yesterday, UNESCO, you know, listed World Heritage sites were being struck in Kiev.

8:29So, you know, the Russian war machine certainly isn't isn't paralyzed yet. And although the Russian economy is definitely suffering, it hasn't collapsed either. I mean, Russia is now functioning as a full scale, you know, militarized war economy. And it can continue functioning despite the sanctions and everything. It can continue functioning like that, theoretically, at least for some time. So, you know, I think the situation is quite finely balanced. Nobody's actually losing, but nobody's actually winning either.

9:09Nosheen Iqbal:And then so when it comes to the summit itself, I mean, I don't want to do the G7 dirty. It's full of very important people. But how much traditionally, historically, does it actually get done? How much faith do you have that there will be some influence that's wielded over the next few days that will have some impact in this war? I mean, they are obviously talking shops. And very little concretely comes out of them directly. But I think they are useful for it is clearly useful for world leaders to sit down relatively informally and talking about this full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. In terms of what matters for the European Union, I mean, this is existential, really.

9:57This conflict is absolutely critical for the European Union. You know, if by virtue of some kind of forced deal that Trump pushes through and that Zelensky is obliged to give into, if by virtue of a deal like that, Russia succeeds in gaining more Ukrainian territory, more Ukrainian territory than it has at the moment, then Europe's borders are fragile and they look vulnerable. So this is a defence crisis for Europe. It's an economic crisis for Europe because energy costs have gone through the roof, inflation is etc. It's really something that European leaders feel they have to resolve and to do that they're very well aware that they have to get Trump on board.

10:44So sitting around the table with him, you know, the least you can say is that it can't do any harm.

10:49Nosheen Iqbal:I'll have to wait and see. John, thank you so much for your time. That's it for today. thanks again to Europe correspondent John Henley thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest today in Focus we'll be back with you tomorrow morning and the latest will be back in your feeds tomorrow night this episode was produced by Annie Levespa the senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitch the presenter was me, Noshi Nikfar

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11:45This is The Guardian.