LIVE Iran Update with Mahyar Tousi

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2:39Francis Foster:Hello, everybody, and welcome to this very special live stream. we are going to be doing something the mainstream media for some inexplicable reason is failing to do which is talk about events in iran and there's literally no one we could think of who's better to talk about this and maya tusi former guest of trigonometry iranian himself he's has family in the country maya without wasting any more time our time is precious here what has been going on in iran for the last 12 days yeah well thanks for having me guys uh yeah 12 days now um in case people haven't seen because the western global media are not really reporting any of this there was initially a protest on the first day which was triggered by everything that's been going on economically and everything else but this has been boiling up and building up the people have been waiting for an opportunity for an uprising against the islamic republic something that has been we've seen waves every few years in iran but the regime have been very good at doing crackdown and this time they they've been falling apart the regime 12 days in a row 12 battles and the iranian people have been having taken control of over 100 cities around the country and i think that's partly one of the reasons they've been struggling because usually these protests or uprisings have been in one or two main cities so they've been uprisings obviously it's been chaos um but uh it's still going on and the president trump has warning has been warning the regime if you start killing many people then of course the United States will have to intervene so we'll have to see what's going on and what is happening so far in terms of the brutality of the attempts to crack down we I know that we've seen some footage of people being taken to hospital is the regime killing people at this point where are we so the official numbers from the regime themselves over the last well the first 11 days was uh about 40 but uh the numbers could be higher but at the same time it could actually be as low as that which could mean that they've been terrified of what president trump has said compared to previous uh crackdowns where you see hundreds getting killed in a couple of days but uh people have had full control the obviously people are mostly unarmed the the regime security forces are armed and but they every evidence videos that we are getting is the shows people chasing the regime security away we have had a number of defections from the police some from the IRGC passage units that they filmed themselves but I think there's a lot going on internally that is paralyzing the regime behind the scenes and they have struggled.

5:21As of right now, we're doing this live. Over the last hour, the regime have officially withdrawn the security forces and the police and they have officially declared war. They have brought in the IRGC military, the actual military that would go to fight in other countries. They are now on the ground and there are some videos that we will be showing on TCTV later. It's also on social media. Very, very worrying updates coming in about shootings on the ground. And obviously tonight is huge because the Crown Prince of Iran, Reza Fahlavi, is the main opposition leader and people are calling his name and the return of the monarchy and everything else.

6:00He said to people, come out tonight at 8 p.m. local time, which was about two, three hours ago, everybody united and start chanting. So we've had millions around the country. And if the military have started killing people, as we've seen, things are going to get very bad tonight and everybody is now looking at president trump

6:21Konstantin Kisin:i mean it was a really brilliant summation there maya because president trump has been hypercritical of the iranian regime and their handling of this particular crisis there was also an incident with a hospital wasn't there which was absolutely horrific could you just explain to the audience watching what happened with the hospital so it's happened uh three times now over the last 12 days three different hospitals this is a tactic that they've used many times so because again this is my observation because they didn't want to be seen openly that they're killing people on the streets they didn't want any evidence to be out there and what they do is they injure people so they are forced to go to the hospital then they raid the hospital and start kidnapping them obviously they detained them and the first couple of days they did the same thing there was a city in the western parts of iran i forgot the name where they actually the iranian people managed to find where they were taking these people there was a a temporary kind of jail that they created and they went in and they actually liberated everybody they rescued people but they they keep doing this the problem is there are also just normal patients in the hospitals when they are attacking the hospitals, which is completely chaotic.

7:37They are alienating even some of their own, I would say minority of people who are supporting the regime, which, yeah, I mean, this is literally right now, crime against humanity, and we're not really seeing anything from the United Nations.

7:51Konstantin Kisin:And when you look at the reasons for the uprisings, why do you think they are? Is it because of the brutality and the cruelty of the regime? I was reading that last year, and these are the official figures, the Iranian regime killed more people than ever before or is it the fact that economically Iran has hit a point where the simple for the simple economics no longer work what used to be a nice middle-class life simply doesn't buy you eggs breads the very basic essentials so if you ask self-appointed experts and a lot of people who actually some of them have been on your shows before and you've challenged them.

8:34People want to analyze things, right? You know, and even the BBC would probably say economic protests. But all I would say is don't even listen to me. Listen to what people in Iran are saying from day one. What have they been chanting on? Did they come out on the streets to say we are against high inflation? Did they even come out to protest against the president or the economic minister? Did they talk about high taxes or lack of jobs? No, none of those things were mentioned. Those things are the final trigger but they're just part of the overall package. From day one, two chants. One is chanting against the Islamic Republic to go away and secondly, for the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to come back to his country.

9:15All the things that you mentioned, they are just part of the overall package of the Islamic Republic. Everything from lack of free speech, arresting journalists to not being able to run the economy and sending the taxpayers' money to Hezbollah and Hamas. These are just part of everything. And it's just been building up. People in reality have been just waiting for an opportunity, especially since the end of the 12-day war with Israel. But they knew that at the beginning they couldn't do anything because the moment the war ended, there were checkpoints in every city. The regime seemed in control, which is a massive surprise why from day one of this uprising, the regime immediately fell apart, which makes me wonder, obviously, there's a lot of behind the scenes issues.

10:02Obviously, Mossad operatives, the Iranian community leaders and protest leaders, they've become smarter, they've been working together, the Crown Prince's team. This is coordinated. Obviously, those who want to say, oh, yes, somebody's behind it. Yes, of course. People have been waiting for this. People have been planning this. They've learned from previous mistakes. and so far they have been winning it's not over yet as i've been saying the regime hasn't fallen

10:28Francis Foster:but it is falling uh before we ask the next question francis just make sure you have the right microphone selected please because it sounds like you're actually coming to us like from iran at this point um so make sure you've got the yeti selected please uh my you mentioned that the the eyes of the world are on president trump what options are actually available to him like what what could the United States actually do? And has he said anything about what might be the consequences if they continue to brutalize protesters in this way? So a few days ago, President Trump came and gave a warning saying if you start killing people, then obviously we'll take action.

11:09It was just a very general threat. Earlier today, he doubled down again. And he said that we will hit them very hard if they start killing. Obviously, there are a lot of Iranians who will tell you, well, they've already been killing because they've killed about 30, 40, maybe more. But I observe it in a different way because if a president of the United States is about to say something like this, he doesn't mean, I know it sounds bad, but he doesn't mean if you kill 20, 30 people. He means if you start basically, in a very uncontrollable way, start killing hundreds, which I believe tonight might be that night, unfortunately.

11:45But in terms of actions, right now, I don't know how we can see an action directly because there are millions of people on the streets. Not that the U.S. is going to hit residential areas, they're not Russia, but the two things that can be done, whether it's a partnership between the Mossad side and the U.S. to go and hunt down the leadership, and they also have some people who have allegedly defected from the top of the regime quietly and privately, they could do that or they could just hit the main bases, the main government buildings and the main IRGC bases and destroy them. I think that will just put pressure.

12:21All you need is just put pressure for their leadership to start fleeing the country, basically. Even though the Iranian people don't want that to happen, they want to capture the leadership. But by doing that, you could just force them out to Moscow.

12:34Francis Foster:Maya, I guess what I'm wondering, though, is given that for the regime to leave at this point is completely existential. I mean, the leaders of the regime will likely, if they leave power, be prosecuted for their many crimes against the people of Iran, etc. Is there not a risk that effectively they really have no way out other than to continue to suppress and crack down on the protests? But I would have said that in 2022, 2019, 2017, and even the first couple of days of this, because i thought they're going to start doing a crackdown and at least have a level playing field at this point that i don't think how they i don't know how they can actually stay or temporarily win because president trump has gone all out so it's gone too deep now he if for example there's a massacre tonight and tomorrow everyone's going to president trump saying you know you promised that you're going to do something, he's going to have to do something.

13:37And President Trump doesn't like to lose. If he does something, he's going to have to do it completely fully. But they're going to have to go. But we did receive some update from the French media that the families of the IRGC have started seeking asylum to France because they will be considered as civilians, I guess. But the actual people responsible, the leadership, they can't go to any country that the future Iran could ask for extradition. So they could probably go to Moscow. But there are not many places left. They can't go to Venezuela, really, because that's still on the brink. And they can't go to Lebanon.

14:16So the only place is also Russia. But Russia is also in a very weird situation, as you know, because of their negotiations with Ukraine. So I don't know. As you said, nowhere is safe for them. They can't go to Qatar either because President Trump is keeping the Qataris close. so the only way is for them to get captured but if not then they're going to continue this basically turn this into a long-term civil war until somebody wins well very much with that in mind

14:45Francis Foster:you mentioned that tonight was a big moment potentially the risk of lots of violence by the regime cracking down on millions of people who are now going out in into the streets what given that we're doing this live what can you tell us i know you have family still in iran what can you tell us about what's actually happening on the ground tonight i know that there's the internet's been cut off the phone lines have been cut off so what do we know so as i said tonight was the first night that the crown prince gave direct instructions uh said 8 p.m wherever you are basically start chanting and uh so far 11 days that we've had uh people have been out more cities have been coming out uh smaller groups in every city so a few thousand people tens of thousands of people in every city and towns and village so obviously technically if you put them all together to come to the capital it'll be millions but they've been spread around but tonight before we got the update which was about an hour ago that they have withdrawn the uh the police and the security forces and they brought in the irgc military every footage that we've been getting from tehran to other smaller cities they are hundreds and hundreds of thousands out because everybody got re-energized everybody got motivated that they they believe that president trump is is behind them and the crown prince gave them instruction and they want to show loyalty so they came out uh that they've been sending thank you messages to president trump over the last few days there's some people changed their street names temporarily to trump streets uh so basically the morale has been high until well now but as we speak i can't tell you what the morale is like because uh we're not getting any more updates some people obviously have access to starlink thanks to elon musk and so there are still videos coming out and the videos that we are getting is worrying because all we hear is just gunfire massive and uh but they are still out so the the main issue about tonight is more people are out than ever before especially the last 11 days 12 days but that could also mean a lot more people could unfortunately get killed which could provoke president trump to act quicker because they have been mobilizing their troops in the middle east over the last couple of days but or if people i don't think people can concede defeat now because they've gone too deep as well um they're gonna have to stay out and it's their country it's their fight obviously um but uh it could get very very robust in the next few hours and tomorrow morning is going to be crucial obviously if they're going to come out again which i think this may feel like a strange question to you with you know obviously your family ties and everything but how how how confident are you that this is all for a good cause and i'll explain what i mean because uh obviously the the protesters are chanting for reza pahlavi he is one of the people who's encouraging this to be happening how credible of a leader is he and is he viewed as as the return to the glory days of iran pre the islamic takeover um or is he seen as a kind of person we haven't seen for a very long time uh you know is this if he was to come back would this have been worth it so to speak yeah if this question was happening in 2019 or like 10 years ago when we've had protests and uprisings and if a couple of people in the on the crowd would say reza pahlevi i would have told you yeah it's just a minority it's you know it's probably and we haven't heard from him publicly speaking i don't think people are ready to think about monarchy constitutional monarchy but things have changed and i do believe that this has been uh in the works for years uh we started slowly seeing and hearing his name since uh 2020 and so to 2019 obviously was the uh the cost of living crisis uh protests and uh uh i was surprised i was like oh i can see his name they're being written on the wall some people are chanting then it just got more and more and more And this year, again, just like my answer to your question earlier about, well, to Francis' question about what's the uprising for?

19:05And I said, just listen to the people. Right now on the streets, they are only chanting his name. Everybody is saying Reza Pahlavi. Nobody is saying the Mujahideen, who are a small group of communist Islamic opposition, technically, but nobody takes them seriously. But nobody is calling anybody else's name. there is a massive unity behind one name because he's finally obviously made it clear because obviously after a few years of waiting to see if there is appetite and I think there is now appetite and it's been led by the younger generation who weren't even alive before 1979 and they've done their homework they've done their research and they've realized actually the best the best solution for the culture in Iran is constitutional monarchy as a safety net and to be able to actually have stability and democracy, parliamentary democracy.

19:54So the consensus is the crown prince, and he's made it clear that, yes, I've received your call, your request, I will be leading the revolution, and I will be leading the transition government. The idea is to avoid the power vacuum or anything like that, which won't happen in Iran, because it's not Iraq or Syria. lead the transition government and conduct a referendum on the future constitution and the way it's going it seems that if there is a question on the ballot paper about constitutional monarchy or republic or whatever else well based on the current feeling constitutional monarchy would win but of course that's about the campaigns and referendum and everything else that will happen afterwards.

20:40Francis Foster:And what about the regional players? We're welcoming back Francis here. He was temporarily kidnapped by his internet. Francis, try talking just to make sure you... Hello, one, two, three, four. You're a little loud, but apart from that, I think much better. Let me ask another question while you just turn your mic down a little bit. I can't hear it. Oh, you can't hear him at all? No. It's the same problem happening like that. Okay. Well, Francis, try reconnecting then. Okay. We'll carry on. Um, Maya, so one of the things obviously is the regional situation. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and also Israel are all sworn enemies of the Islamic regime in Iran.

21:20Francis Foster:They are all very concerned about the direction it's been taking in recent years, their support for terrorism in the region. These countries, historically speaking, have been natural. Not Israel, but the Sunni and Shia divide is obviously very strong. Is there a role, do you think, here for Gulf countries and Israel as well, in addition to President Trump and the United States? In terms of action, well, I don't think that will be necessary, but there is an opportunity here. because firstly, the Israelis, until now, until like last year, for the past four decades, five decades, they never admitted any involvement on the ground.

22:04They never said, oh, yeah, of course, we got Mossad doing things. But over the last year, they've been actually boasting about it. They've been bragging. Yeah, we've got over 100 Mossad operators. They were doing this. We were watching everything. And they've been quite open about it now. Everybody knew that Mossad has always been doing disruptions in Iran over the last few decades. But the main thing here is that Saudi Arabia, for example, is a huge rival or enemy to the Islamic Republic. But they don't want to be seen as that sort of superpower in the region. They have been taking a different approach.

22:43They never want to be directly involved in any war apart from Yemen. but that's also so indirect even though they're basically hitting the IRGC proxies they never release any statement against the Islamic Republic it's a very cold, cold war between those two Israel is the only one that is more kind of outspoken mostly because since 1979 the Islamic Republic declared war on Israel saying, you know, we have a bit of a problem with you we just need to wipe you off the map I mean, it's a tiny difference obviously in terms of opinions between the iranian regime and israel wiping off uh so um i don't think there's any need for any sort of a coalition involvement in that sense because i think israelis if they do anything um that's that will be considered as a self-defense because they're in constant war with iran anyway the americans well that's the american empire it's the world police whether you like it or not seeing the people would say oh boy is america always involved somebody has to be if it's not america it's gonna be china and the americans have bases there they have interests in the middle east and President Trump at least, one credit to him is that he's unlike other presidents, he's open about the fact that he's basically the king of the world.

23:54He basically, he will be honest, say, I'm going to go in there, I'm going to take the oil as well, or I'm going to stop businesses there. I'm going to do this, I'm going to take over temporarily. So that's actually quite refreshing rather than like people would say, oh yeah, we want to be friends with the whole world. We just had to invade that country for humanitarian reasons. Like, just be honest. so but yeah i mean the region um there's just an opportunity for everybody most power players to finally be on the same level playing field saudi arabia israel ua the future iran and so you could actually have a peaceful middle east which could also help the rest of the world and there have been rumors oh no maybe i should go out and come back in no no we can't hear francis unfortunately um well i was going to ask you one of the things that uh obviously is just mind-boggling and we

24:47Francis Foster:we said this right at the top is frankly i think it's ridiculous that we've got over 10 000 people watching this that in itself is not ridiculous but my point is something else which is tens of thousands of people are watching a live stream with let's be you know generous to former comedians the Mia Francis and a YouTuber in you. And because they're not getting this information on the mainstream media, I opened the BBC website as we were talking. It's something about a storm. It's this Minnesota officials talking about the FBI and the ice shooting. The fifth most read story or the fifth most ranked story on the BBC is weight loss jabs are affecting Gregg's.

25:28Francis Foster:And there's nothing about this issue for 12 days. I am lacking in explanation I think is a very gentle way of putting it Yeah so one would have said well maybe after the third fourth day they will jump on a bandwagon but I've realized the sickness in the media the mainstream media the profession as a whole it's not necessarily even that they have some sort of like evil proactive agenda they have a meeting everybody in the mainstream media is it this is a intellectual laziness so we've created the world were back in the day and i'm literally talking about maybe 50 years ago before probably not that long ago journalism um including newspapers and broadcast media was about essentially they were all anti-establishment they they would find stories themselves they will obviously they will do their due diligence but they would find stories they will verify themselves we created such a structured mainstream media culture so in in the uk we've got the westminster lobby in the us we've got the capitol hill guys and everybody else everybody is acting the same way which is very professional but very controlled and lazy which means for the bbc and cnn they they have been reporting a couple of times but what have they been reporting over the last 12 days statements from the islamic republic so for the iranian people they would see it as you guys are the mouthpiece of the islamic republic but the reality is because of the the world order of the media they would only consider they just sit in their offices on their computers they would only consider official sources as states so the health minister in gaza or the irgc they are official sources because they go to the un for example so they have selected a very limited number of official sources instead of them going out to find stories like back in the day they are just sitting back like robots and they've been told the script it's you know it's not even just because they love the IRGC but they're like well I can't verify this I don't have journalists on the ground what am I going to do so we're just going to report from the government in Iran and that is just intellectual laziness that's been created by the media class in general but I thought that with the rise of new media that that might wake them up but no they're not waking up it's absolutely fascinating we have now open source intel we've got people that you can verify if you get something rogue from iran just get in touch with two or three other sources and they can verify not just one person because that could be a rumor absolutely but there are there's evidence it obviously if there's something ai you can't tell it's ai but there are videos when for example an irgc base that there's a building with a road sign next to it that you can see where it is go on google earth Go on Google Maps.

28:16You could check it and you could check the date because most of the time when Iranians are filming these videos, they say, because they're smart, they say this is Tuesday, the 6th of January, for example, at 10 p.m. Just check everything and then hopefully look for a different video from a different angle and you can report it as news. Don't wait for the Islamic Republic official sources to tell you what's going on in Iran.

28:37Francis Foster:Well, what's fascinating to me in this whole thing as well is we have seen with the conflict in Gaza that the BBC routinely reports stories that then turn out not to be true precisely because of the approach you described, where they will take information from the Gaza Health Ministry. Let's be honest, not the least unbiased media source in the world. Right. And they will rush to publish it in order to get ahead of the story. So to me that they don't have anything on this at all, I just find that so strange. And at this point, with the wide availability of information in the new media, it just looks it's an incredibly bad look for institutions that I don't know how you feel about it.

29:19Francis Foster:but I've always made the argument that we need a good BBC in this country because we want to be well-informed about world events. And the BBC has more resources than Trigonometry or Maya Tusi TV, Maya Tusi, to go after and cover this stuff. It's just extraordinary. Well, yes. So theoretically, what you always say about the BBC on paper makes sense, but there is an alternative. And people like me have been trying to push for this now. there's a small handful of people who do when it comes to new media who do news and live news so what I've been trying to push and I'm trying to get hold of all the others as well around the world is you have resources so you mentioned the BBC having an army of journalists that is true but there could be a hybrid for example we do work on TCTV we do work with some Reuters journalists and who obviously outsource things we still have to verify things and we double check everything but uh even if you know the bbc there are there are basically credible sources out there that you can still work with as a small channel uh to do this but we are working on creating for example an all-party parliamentary group an appg for new media for news because there's still a gatekeeping situation where if there is a channel that's new media but does news and is actually doing okay in terms of their balance or objectivity you need to be allowed to be let in into downing street press conferences and things like that but that's not happening now.

30:50It's happening in the White House but not for example in the UK. But the problem that we said, you mentioned the Gaza Health Ministry, to be objective the same problem will happen for the BBC and CNN when they will get something from the Israeli government. And I also have a problem with that just because the Israeli government says something about some domestic issue doesn't mean it's true. Go ask the opposition if it's true because that's why some Ukrainians have a problem with the BBC but But also Russians have a problem with BBC because the BBC gets only the statements from the Ukrainian government and the Russian government.

31:21They don't really cross check. So one minute they're the propaganda for Ukraine. Next minute the propaganda machine for Russia. They're like, just do your own journalism instead of just waiting for the press release to come to you.

31:33Francis Foster:Amai, coming back to the issue, one of the things we've obviously seen the last time Francis and I did a stream was just me and him talking about the events in Venezuela. I wonder given that we know Mossad has deep penetration into the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps they probably know exactly where everyone is at every moment in time do you think there is a Venezuelan style scenario to be played out here where U.S. special forces go in capture several of the key people in charge. And that is the way this ultimately gets resolved. Well, theoretically, yes. But with Iran, you have to take out one main person.

32:22Because if you somehow capture the head of the IRGC, it won't really change much. Because that's literally what Israel did. The first day of the 12-day war, they just wiped out the whole leadership of the military and the IRGC. that doesn't really bring it down because it's a cult of personality it's like the Kim family in North Korea with Khamenei but on the other hand if you take him out that's still not finished because then you have to take out the head of the leadership of the IRGC I don't see how despite the Mossad intelligence and CIA I mean the Iranian regime have been very incompetent with this performance of crackdown until now but they're not that stupid right surely they're not that stupid after seeing what happened to nicholas maduro they do have good tunnel networks in iran uh sort of like gaza so surely they should be smart enough to move harmony around because currently he's in a bunker but we don't know which bunker and so surely he's not as stupid as nicholas maduro like literally nine hours before that happened he was on a stage in public dancing saying come and get me but he was an idiot but i don't think how many is going to make that mistake but they can still technically if they want to I believe they can still get close enough to take him out, to assassinate him.

33:33But these are, again, just strategic decisions that, you know, people right now watching, some of the people who are against Khamenei, they say, yeah, let's do that. But that's not really how geopolitics works, because in any moment, a decision could be the opposite. So people were really angry at President Trump, for example, for doing the ceasefire in the 12-day war. But there are many other reasons that that had to happen. It wasn't just because Trump, like, saved the IRGC. the Israeli defense was being overwhelmed and many other issues as well. So it's not really that black and white, but there are many options.

34:04I think the most obvious one is the existing pressure because there are sabotage operations happening, defections and everything else. The message from Tehran was a few days ago that the backup plan is to send Khamenei and 20 of his inner circle, including his wife and his son, to Moscow only if the uprising continues and if we notice that some or a lot of our own forces are no longer following the orders essentially some sort of defection so and by today i can say based on observations that there have been a few who have been seen not to be following orders and the uprising continues so if tonight goes well for the people because there seems to be a massacre right now on the ground.

34:53I think this could just finish it by itself in the next few days, hopefully.