Our Thoughts On The Iran War

25:18Francis Foster:So you're not going to get the nuclear materials without far, far, far more escalation. And even that is a risk. And his argument is the U.S. is now in an escalation trap where every step they take to escalate will be met by Iran with more escalation that creates now permanent damage. So rather than temporarily closing the Strait of Amos, what you end up with is destruction of Gulf Arab and Iranian oil facilities, which means that the current spike in oil prices, which if it lasts for a few months will cause a global recession, could actually last a year or more if that happens. So this escalation trap is there.

25:59Francis Foster:And so, in other words, unless the United States is prepared to do to Iran what the Western allies did to Japan and Germany, there is actually no way of achieving the objectives of getting rid of the nuclear weapons and of reopening the Sharia for most. And I haven't heard, and we've tried to find people who offer a counter perspective to that, I haven't heard a persuasive argument about why he's wrong. Well, this is the worry, because then you also, what the Americans are trying to do now is have talks in Pakistan with the Iranian officials. but Iran doesn't seem to be wanting to play ball and if you look at it from an Iranian perspective why would they why would they you have started a war you have killed their leader you have killed many of the highest ranking officials the Iranians have come out and said look Trump has tricked us twice why would he why would we believe him why would we actually go and try and negotiate with him and if you look at it another way look they can continue going down this path but the reality is Iran holds the major trump card which is the Strait of Hormuz.

27:07Eventually we are going to have to sit down and have a negotiation with the Iranians and what Robert Pape was saying is that it would have been far better to do this and accept the original deal that was on the table than to go bomb start a war when the reality is that Iran are now to put it bluntly a little bit annoyed about what's happened and are very much going to be less likely to want to agree a deal

27:36Francis Foster:well and forget about annoyed there's also the real politic of this which is they hold the trump card as you said and they know that america is an escalation trap so it's perfectly within reason that they don't have to reopen the straight of almost because it's not closed it's the straight of almost is not closed this is what people need to understand what they've done is they effectively made it a toll booth where they let in the ships that they choose and don't let in the ships that they don't choose. And this is where the problem is because a lot of people say, well, you know, there's a secret plan.

28:09Francis Foster:There's a strategy. You know what this is really about? This is about screwing China and Russia because Iran can no longer send drones to Russia and China gets so much oil from Iran. Well, the two problems with this, in terms of China, China is still getting the oil and in terms of Russia okay Russia is not getting Iranian drones but they're making them themselves and have been for a long time using Iranian designs and also because of the pressure on the oil price Russia the United States has lifted sanctions on Russia and Russia is now selling its oil in a way that it couldn't before so this is actually helping Russia and it's not hurting China.

28:50Francis Foster:Who it's really, really, really hurting is Europe, less so America, but Europe in particular. And that's another concern, because when you look at, for instance, the war in Ukraine, more money is now flowing into Russia, which means Russia will be able to buy better armaments. It will be able to ramp up its efforts on the war in Ukraine. It will also mean as well that Europe is now torn because, I mean, look, the alliances between the US and Europe, they've always, they've been turbulent at times, karma or others. But for looking back over my lifetime, I think this alliance between the US and Europe has been its most fraught in my lifetime, certainly.

29:36Sure. So you're looking at the way that European leaders are behaving. You're looking at the way Trump is behaving and you're thinking to yourself, I mean, the fractures are looking ever wider and you're really worrying, could these fractures become permanent? And that would mean a massive, massive problem, particularly when it comes to a China, which is becoming ever stronger, ever richer, and we are becoming weaker because our alliances are becoming more and more frayed, which is a very real concern because take Britain, for example. I mean, if we got invaded by Liechtenstein now with our armed forces, I'm not sure how good a fight we'd be able to give.

30:17We are severely weakened. And you're looking at Europe. Practically everyone, particularly, you know, Spain, Italy, England, France or the UK, we're in real debt. we can't even muster the resources to defend ourselves, let alone go and defend other countries. And we saw that with attacking bases in Cyprus. It was like, well, we can't defend you. And the Cypriots were like, well, then what's the point in you having bases here if you literally can't defend us?

30:49Francis Foster:Right. And look, whether you are someone who is super pro-Trump or you're super anti-Trump, actually it works both ways because you could say, well, you know, Trump is a stupid asshole. He's doing all this stuff, and this is really, you know, it's all his fault. Okay, but the problem is, if you are someone who thinks European countries shouldn't be involved in this conflict, which personally I think makes a lot of sense, if I'm being honest, the problem is, Europeans are going, well, this is not our war, and Americans are going, okay, well, Ukraine is not our war. And we've been the country that's contributed the most to Ukraine's defense.

31:26Francis Foster:So if European countries expect America to defend Europe's border, you can see why that would come with some cross obligations the other way. So this fracturing is bad for everyone, in my opinion, and that's true irrespective of where you place the blame. Personally, I thought, for example, what Trump and Marco Rubio said earlier in the year at Davos and at Munich was actually broadly speaking true, which is European countries have been taking the piss, as we say in the UK. They've been taking advantage of America. They've not funded their own defense properly. They've destroyed their own economies, but purely luxury beliefs like net zero, which means they actually can't defend themselves anymore.

32:12Francis Foster:And I think that's all very true. But I also think this conflict plus the hostile rhetoric from the US has pushed Europe away and it's just a fraught situation for the entire western world as a result. It is a fraught situation for the western world. There is one positive that I would like to actually, I know it's not on brand, but there is one positive. Go for it, mate. Which is, I do think and I hope this could be the death of net zero because you can have luxury beliefs. For instance, we're recording this in West Hollywood. It's a beautiful place. You walk around. Why can't trans women be women.

32:47It's wonderful. Who cares? I've got a$12 coffee in my hand. The sun's shining. The sun is going to shine tomorrow. But if you literally can't afford to heat your house, and that might very well be the income for a large portion of people in the UK, if energy becomes so expensive, the businesses will eventually go out of business or struggle to function and struggle to do the basics. Eventually, the bubble might pop on net zero and we think to ourselves, well, look what's happening around the world. Look what's happening with the Strait of Hormuz. The reality is we have the potential to frack gas in our country.

33:28We can move to become more energy independent. And as a result of that, we are going to be more insulated from shockwaves like the war in Iran. So there is the potential, if we're looking at this through a positive light, which I'm always trying to do, of actually this might be an instance where the UK will wake up. It may not be the case, but there is hopefully that potential.

33:54Francis Foster:I hope that happens. I also see a lot of the pro net zero lunatics now saying the war in Iran shows that we must make ourselves independent of fossil fuels. which, I mean, you physically can't do it, but lunatics don't care about things like that. Look, let's talk about the economic side of it because it's something that I think the overwhelming majority of people haven't appreciated. The reality is, I mean, Neil Ferguson, frequent guest of the show, who I think I'm being fair to Neil in saying he was broadly favourable about this conflict at the beginning. He has now written an article in the free press in which he basically breaks down why a global recession is pretty much inevitable at this point.

34:37Francis Foster:And his argument is almost every recession in history is caused by the primary form of energy dominant at that time, spiking in price. So when coal was the dominant form of energy that we used, a coal price spike, mainly due to coal miner strikes, led to recessions. Most of the recessions were caused by that. Likewise, in our times when oil has been the primary energy that we use, oil price spikes have caused recessions. And his argument is we are now already at the point where that's going to happen. Now let's talk about why. Iran doesn't produce 20 % of the world's oil, but again, people should go back and watch the Robert Pape interview.

35:22Francis Foster:The Strait of Hormuz is the place through which 20 % of the world's oil is transported to the rest of the world from various Gulf countries. That's also true of, I think, 25 % of the world's liquefied natural gas, half of the world's traded fertilizer. I was talking to a friend of mine who's a farmer in Australia. He was saying they can't get enough fertilizer just to cover the planting they need to do now. And we're not talking about the price has gone up. We're not talking about this temporary delivery issues. They literally, the country of Australia, cannot get enough fertilizer to plant the crops that they want to plant.

36:05Francis Foster:They're also having diesel shortages. He was saying, and this guy, the very reasonable guy, is not some kind of prepper. He was saying, I'm getting more guns because at some point I worry I'm going to have to protect my diesel stocks because people will try and steal some of them because that's the situation we're headed to. And, you know, a good friend of the show, John Anderson, who's former deputy prime minister of Australia. I mean, he is livid about net zero, which has basically created these problems that they now have, even though Australia has an immense amount of its own energy resources.

36:37Francis Foster:They just refuse to use them, as we do in the UK. I talked to a friend of mine who's a gas trader. You know, the people who are involved in all these different markets, they see this coming already. And it's important to understand, A, we're not anywhere near a resolution. and B, even when there is a resolution, it will take a very long time, probably weeks if not months, for the situation to go back to normal, which means the current oil prices, which are, as we record this, just around$100 a barrel, which is a significant increase in what they were before the war. If this carries on for a few months, you're guaranteed a world recession, but there's no guarantee that it won't get worse either.

37:22Francis Foster:So economically, we're in a very bad place. And you know, the fertilizer point doesn't get talked about enough. I mean, fertilizer, you might eat organic, which means no fertilizer, but to feed 8 billion people, you need the fertilizer. And if you don't have the fertilizer, what happens to the people? If you own gold and it's just sitting there not earning anything, then you need to hear this. What you're about to hear is not a normal gold advert. Today's sponsor is Monetary Metals, and what they're doing is rethinking how gold is used. Traditionally, gold ownership is passive. You buy gold, store it, and hope it preserves value over time.

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39:21Francis Foster:That site again is monetary-metals.com slash trigonometry. Well, I was reading an article in the Times of London that said without fertilizer, one in two people would effectively starve to death in this planet. I mean, without the fertilizer from the Gulf? Oh no, just fertilizer. We're just talking about how important fertilizer is. So just to say. Right. We produce half the food. Yeah. And how important that is. And it's essential. Without it, we wouldn't be able to sustain the population that we currently have. I was also, in the same article, reading about a very senior person when it came to helium and dealing helium, a helium trader.

40:02And he compared the current economic situation to being on the beach. He said, the sun is shining, not a cloud in the sky, but there's a tsunami. coming. But you can't see it, but it's coming. You just don't feel it at the moment. But when it does arrive, boy, will we feel it. And if you look at, for instance, Iran bombing the gas fields of Ras Lafhan in Qatar, that is responsible for around 15 % of the world's gas production, liquid gas production. And you think to yourself, what effect is that going to have on gas prices? That is going to have a major significant effect. And then they were also interviewing in this article the people who were working there who were saying it's going to take about three to five years for it to be up and running.

40:54And he went, that is the best case scenario, three to five years, because we can't repair anything until the war stops, a ceasefire is agreed, because there is literally no point in us repairing something if tomorrow it can get bombed again.

41:09Francis Foster:And Robert Pape's argument is if the United States escalates, what will happen is Iran will naturally then be forced to do more of that, which actually it doesn't want to do at this point. They will be forced to destroy more oil facilities in the Gulf Arab countries, more gas facilities in all countries. countries. And this is where I think it's important that we address the conversation about the dip that you raised earlier, which is the difference between the objectives of the United States and the objectives of the allies of the United States in the region, not just Israel, but also the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, they're all behind continuing this bombing.

41:49Francis Foster:And the reason is that their objectives are quite understandably are different to the United States. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel would be very happy for Iran to be pummeled into the ground, even if it doesn't address the nuclear issue, because Iran is a regional threat to their interest. Iran is an enemy of both Saudi Arabia and of Israel in the region. And so using the help of the United States to bomb the shit out of all of their military facilities, destroy their military industrial complex, whittle down their rocket program, their ballistic program, get rid of their drone manufacturing, weaken them economically.

42:32Francis Foster:That's all wonderful from a Saudi, UAE, less so Qatari, but definitely Israeli perspective. And this is where I've got some very bad news for our pro-Israel friends, of whom we have many. Not anymore. We've talked to many, many people in the United States on camera and off. And I have to report honestly, there are many, many people now in America who are not anti-Israel, and they're definitely not anti-Semitic, who feel that Israel's interests are not the same as those of the United States. And who, I don't even necessarily agree with their analysis, because I don't think Israel tricked America or manipulated Trump.

43:16Francis Foster:I mean, it's ridiculous, right? Tiny country manipulating America. I don't think that's true. But what I think is becoming very clear to me is if this conflict is successful, President Trump will get all the credit. If this conflict fails, yes, there will be repercussions domestically. The Republicans will probably lose the Senate and the House and probably the presidency if this causes a global recession. But I think ultimately what this will cause is a permanent realignment of many, many, many people's view of Israel. and they will see that this conflict, which caused so many problems down the line, was done primarily for the benefit of Israel.

43:57Francis Foster:And they won't think about Saudi and the UAE and they won't think about the fact that the President of the United States is ultimately responsible. This will change people's opinions permanently. And we already see that from otherwise very reasonable and moderate people. And it is understandable why they would think that. Because if you think from Israel's point of view, let's look at October the 7th. It happens in 2023. It was a devastating, horrific terrorist attack. I don't think enough people in the West actually understand how awful it was. And also the deep levels of trauma that were inflicted upon Israel and the Israeli psyche.

44:38And they then went to war, which is a war that we both understood about why it happened and why they carried it out in the way they did in Gaza, and also with Hezbollah as well. And what I think the Israelis are thinking at this moment is this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to get rid of the government that funded not only Hezbollah, but Hamas and October 7th. And so for them, it makes sense to do their very best right now while striking whilst the iron is hot, going after the Ayatollah and the regime and nullifying it. And also as well, it makes sense from a UAE, from a Saudi perspective, because Iran is basically like a neighbour that is mental.

45:29And every day you wake up and you think to yourself, what's he gone and done now? Has he set fire to the fence? Has he attacked someone? Eventually you go, I can't live like this anymore.

45:40Francis Foster:Let's call the police. Exactly. And let's get this dealt with. But the reality is that is not as much in America's interest nor in the American people's interest. And there's going to be a lot of people who are saying to themselves, look, 12 day war, fine. Nuclear weapons that has a potential to destabilize a region that has the potential to give the Iranian government far more power than I'm comfortable with. totally get it. But when we're talking about boots on the ground, maybe, we don't know, that automatically changes everything. And then there's going to be a lot of people thinking to themselves, is this going to be Iraq 2.0 or potentially even worse?

46:25Francis Foster:Well, Iraq didn't have the leverage that Iran has. Iraq didn't have the Strait of Hormuz. so that's a critical difference and so if you put boots on the ground it's hard to imagine it being less bad than a rock at the very least but even short of putting boots on the ground i mean trump is clearly trying to end this and get an off-ramp which is what robert pape said he should do which is what mike baker said he would do on our show which is what Ted Cruz said. I mean, Ted Cruz said, and, you know, I wonder how prudent it was of him to say this, given where this might be headed. He said, well, if this conflict is still going on by November when the midterms happen, we fail.

47:13Francis Foster:I think we will say it's exact. Somebody's gone terribly wrong. I hope it doesn't go to that. But either way, whether if it's a global recession or whether if it escalates further, that is not going to be a good outcome. And Israel will get a lot of the blame. And I can see from Bibi's perspective, you know, he's been dreaming about destroying the regime for 40 years. I don't blame him. If I was the prime minister of Israel, I would want to deal with the people who did October 7th in the most, with extreme prejudice, let's say, to apocalypse now. But in the long term, this has the potential, I suspect, over time, over generations, to reset the relationship between the United States and Israel in a way that will not be beneficial to Israel at all.

47:59Francis Foster:And that, I think, should be a real worry if you are actually pro-Israel. If you're interested in the long-term survival of the state of Israel, that is a concern you actually ought to be thinking about. And when you... Again, this isn't data, this is anecdotal evidence, but we talked to... One of the great things about doing this show, one of the things I love the most about it is the connections that we make with people. Not just people on the right, but people on the left, people on the centre, libertarians, young, old, male, female, black, white, whatever. And I really treasure the conversations that I have.

48:34I'm very offended you didn't mention trans. The three trans people who watch our show. But when I talk to people about it, there is a generational divide that is ever widening between the way that young people, so I'm talking about people 35 and under, view Israel. and how people 35 and older view Israel. And it's not just left and right. People on the right who are 35 and under are highly skeptical of Israel, to put it mildly, and its policies. And my concern is the more this carries on, the more ill will is directed to Israel. Inevitably, the more ill will will be directed to Jewish people, and the more Jewish people and the West will be at risk from Islamic terrorism.

49:18Islamist terrorism. That is a very real concern for me because we've been in this country a matter of weeks and we've already seen just before we arrived. And is Islamist terrorist in Austin? We saw what could have been a horrific terrorist attack happen in Michigan where a man drove a truck loaded with explosives and tried to ram a synagogue with it. And we also saw a thwarted nail bomb attack in New York. And the more this carries on, the more people die, the more that we see the Middle East become destabilized, we are going to see Islamist terrorist spikes and particular anti-Semitic attacks.

49:58Francis Foster:And I'm glad you brought up the word anti-Semitism because I think this is really worth saying as well. And I hope that people can hear it in the spirit in which it's intended. But it's important to distinguish between different things. anti-Semitism is a real thing and I think it's undoubtedly the case that we see more of it than we've seen at any point in my lifetime. And it's horrific. And at the same time, if you criticize the foreign policy of Britain, that doesn't make you anti-British. If you criticize the foreign policy of the United States, that doesn't make you anti-American. And if you criticize the foreign policy of Israel, it doesn't make you necessarily anti-Israel or anti-Semitic.

50:39Francis Foster:Now, there are many anti-Semitic and anti-Israel people who criticize Israel's foreign policy. But that does not mean that if you don't agree with everything Israel has done, you are anti-Semitic. And my worry is, I see a lot of people now who just, they don't bother having the argument anymore. They just say this person is a bad person. I mean, right as we recorded this, Joe Rogan has just had Dave Smith and our disagreements with Dave on this issue are pretty much on the record I've debated him on Ukraine I've debated him on the 12-day war on Piers Morgan show we've had him on this show to debate him I don't agree with everything Dave says about the Middle East but I do believe his arguments have to be taken on on the merits of the arguments and all that happens now every time I open Twitter I see people who I otherwise like and respect just calling those two people names.

51:36Francis Foster:And I don't see what that achieves. And there are people, you know, I don't like to go after people by name individually, but when I see some of the American sort of pro-Israel commentators, some of them, the way they behave and the way they just insult and attack anyone that doesn't agree with them and don't actually take on any of their arguments, I don't think that's helping. And calling everyone anti-Semitic that simply disagrees with you about foreign policy, I don't think that makes the problem of anti-Semitism better. I would argue from an outsider perspective watching this, it makes it worse.

52:11Francis Foster:And we just lived through 10 years where the label of racist and transphobic and homophobic and misogynist was thrown around with such, I nearly said gay abandonment. LGBTQIA plus abandoned, Constantine. Thank you very much. That no one actually believes those words have any meaning anymore. And so when I say, for example, that someone like Daryl Cooper, this... I nearly said historian. This guy who has all these theories about how Hitler was provoked by Churchill and Churchill is the greatest villain of World War II, etc. When I say he's a Nazi apologist, because I know what the word Nazi apologist means, the term Nazi apologist means, people can't hear that anymore because they just think I'm just insulting him.

52:59Francis Foster:I'm just having a go at him and attacking him. And this is what will happen to the term anti-Semitic if people keep using it in this way. And I'm really worried about it because when you misapply words, what you do is you erode the word itself and then you can't actually accurately describe the phenomenon. And then you can't say Nick Fuentes is anti-Semitic because people go, well, you just called Joe Rogan anti-Semitic or you just called Dave Smith anti-Semitic or you just called someone who criticized Israel attacking a gas facility anti-Semitic. Well, if everyone is anti-Semitic, then no one is.

53:33And there's another component to this, which is when, let's go back to woke times, immediately when you said something that was against the prevailing narrative, criticising BLM, that automatically meant you were racist. So the vast majority of people, quite rightly, don't want to be called racist because they're not racist. And it's a very upsetting thing to have a label put on you that is not accurate and is also as damaging reputationally as being called a racist so what do you do you simply don't voice your opinions but that doesn't mean your opinions go anywhere and in fact you're probably somewhat aggravated by not being able to express them and what happens is you become resentful and resentment rapidly turns into anger which turns into bitterness which turns into something far more cancerous and dangerous The reality is that we all have opinions which are sometimes wrong, sometimes stupid, sometimes all thought out.

54:29The only way we get better opinions is by being able to have honest conversations with people. And we do it all the time. It's one of the things I treasure about our friendship where I go, well, what do you think about this? And you go, well, what about this? And what about that? And I'm like, I never thought of that. And what about? But that's how you get better. That's how you get better opinions. That's how you become more informed. And the reality is that process never stops, and nor should it, because that's how you become better as a human being. You get better opinions, and not only that, you are able to think better and more effectively.

54:59Your process becomes streamlined and sharpened. But when you start shutting people down, as we saw with wokeness, then eventually what you will get is a backlash, which is what you are seeing right the way through social media and in the politics in our country, which we'll come to a little bit later on. And that's a very real concern for me.

55:17Francis Foster:By the way, we shouldn't separate what we've just said from the fact that there are clearly people who lie about Israel for a living. And there are people who say things about Israel that aren't true for whatever their agenda is. Joe Kent, for example, this counterterrorism guy who resigned from Trump's administration. By all accounts, this is a guy who served 11 tours for... So, you know me, I am pro-military people all the way. and even when I'm not in my own country, if I find out someone served in the armed forces of their country, I always say, thank you for your service. It's just how I think about if you're willing to put your body on the line for your country, irrespective of my agreement or disagreement with your views, that to me is like, my level of respect for you goes up tremendously.

56:01Francis Foster:Of course. He's also saying things about Charlie Kirk and Israel or insinuating things about Charlie. They're just factually incorrect or just lies, right? Yep. He's insinuating that somehow the investigation into Charlie Kirk's murder wasn't properly looked into because there's an Israeli connection and he would know even though he had nothing to do with the investigation or the FBI whose job it is. Anyway, he's just making things up as far as I can tell. And there are other people in the media commentary space who are so frothing at the mouth anti-Israel that they are now, I think, some of them anti-Semitic.

56:40Francis Foster:That is also true. But you cannot take the label that is appropriate to apply to them and then apply it to a whole swathes of other people who just have a question about something, or they maybe don't understand something, or maybe they've heard a narrative that seems reasonable to them, and when you actually talk to them and you say, well, have you considered this aspect of it, they might change their mind. You know what one thing is not going to change their mind? It's being called names. People do not change their mind when you call them names. That's not to say you shouldn't accurately describe people who fit the description, but these labels are now being so badly misapplied, I really worry that it's actually creating more antisemitism.

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58:50That's Q-U-A-L-I-A-L-I-E dot com slash trig, code trig. Thanks to Qualia for sponsoring the show. Agreed. And like I said before, it will create a backlash and it will create a backlash against Israel and against Jewish people. Because unfortunately, there are people in society and online who equate Israel with Jewish people and vice versa. And once they do that, then we get into quite a worrying position because they see an attack on Jewish people as an attack on Israel. and as a way to punish Israel for what they're doing, even though Jewish people, I don't know, who live in Michigan, who are simply going to a synagogue, many of whom I suspect have very little, if no connection at all, with Israel itself.

59:42And what that creates is every Jewish person becomes a target. And we really, really need to be careful in order to dial down this rhetoric. And that comes from one side, but it also comes from the pro-Israeli side. And if people come to you with a concern or a worry or a criticism of Israel, what you need of Israel's policy, you need to think to yourself, right, how can I engage with it in good faith? But number two, is it a valid criticism?

1:00:13Francis Foster:And also, if it's not a valid criticism, how do you engage with it in a productive way? For example, people say Israel tricked Trump into this war. I'd like them to explain the mechanism by which they think that happened. And I haven't heard it. There's always a bit missing. So when we interviewed Mehdi Hassan, for example, he said, well, you know, the Israel lobby is so powerful. You can see the Democrat politicians, they are pro-Israel on the whole and Democrat voters are anti-Israel on the whole. How do you explain that? Actually, that gap between what the elites of a party think and what the voters think exists on many, many other issues.

1:00:52Francis Foster:that have nothing to do with lobbying necessarily because people who are in charge of a party and the voter base often have different perspectives on things for all sorts of reasons. Now, lobbying is definitely part of that, but that doesn't mean that that's the entire explanation of that. Or, for example, people say, well, Israel dragged America into this conflict. How? Explain it to me. What power does Bibi Netanyahu have over President Trump? Does he have a picture of him with prostitutes somewhere? What is it? And this is where you get this conspiratorial retard nonsense that you get from some people on the kind of online right, where they don't actively say, but what they imply is that actually Trump is being blackmailed.

1:01:36Francis Foster:or Joe Kent, I think, implies even that Trump is afraid of being assassinated by Mossad, right? Because no one ever explains the mechanism by which this tiny, relatively poor country, Israel, manipulates the most powerful country in the world. And the question is, well, if it's the money that they spend, there are countries in the world that spend way, way, way more money lobbying the American government. They don't seem to have the same effect. I mean, Qatar spends a ton of money here. China spends a ton of money here. The Ukrainians obviously are trying to get America to do what they want. The Russians are trying to get.

1:02:12Francis Foster:Everyone in the world wants America to do their thing. And yet this one tiny country miraculously somehow is able to do it. Just, there's not a good explanation. And that's where you can poke and prod at it. We're just calling people names. I just don't think this is helpful at all. And you touched on it, shutting down a conversation, what it effectively does is it creates a vacuum. And we all know nature abhors a vacuum. And what fills the vacuum is people theorizing. And quite naturally, what happens is that will lend itself towards conspiracy. Because conspiracies are glamorous, they're exciting, they're sexy.

1:02:48That's why conspiracy theory content is one of the most viewed types of content on YouTube, because it triggers the amygdala. You're like, oh, this is exciting, this is dangerous. It doesn't mean that it's right or it's correct, but that's all you are doing. When you shut down conversations, you're allowing conspiracy theories to flourish. And I don't need to be the most perceptive person in the world to go, conspiracy theories, Jewish people tend to go together. And we need to be very, very, very careful. because if we don't handle this correctly, if we start shutting people down, if we continue down this path of smearing people, the conspiracy theories will only rise and they will become more prevalent and they will become more anti-Semitic in their nature.

1:03:36And that, again, will lead to dangerous outcomes in the real world. Look, we're British. If we look closer to home, this war in Iran could have very, very real political consequences. We see in the UK, the conversation now tends to be, look, life has become more unaffordable for the vast majority of people, which is true. We're in a cost of living crisis, a housing crisis. All these things are true. What the hard left does is go, we need a wealth tax. The reason we can't afford things is because the billionaires and the millionaires are not paying their fair share. therefore we need higher taxes because that's the only way we can redistribute wealth in order to make society fairer for all now the reality is that simply won't work quite simply because if you decide to tax these people and tax these people incredibly hard they will leave and you can agree or disagree with that but that is a reality but what worries me is that more and more people will become persuaded to this line of thinking the more unaffordable their lives become partly due to the war in Iran and rising oil, energy and food prices.

1:04:48And that is a very real concern. And then we have political parties like the Green Party who will make hay with this particular argument. And a lot of people will be persuaded about it. And we're going to see more and more people go over to the populist left. And that is a very real worry, because if they become more powerful, then what we're going to see, in my opinion, is an economic catastrophe.

1:05:14Francis Foster:Well, right. I mean, if the recession happens, then... I mean, the Greens, people don't want to hear this, particularly people on the right, but the party with the biggest momentum in British politics, as we sit here now, is the Green Party. They're not denying it. Reform are leading the polls, but the Greens are second. from very low numbers, if you look at the last election, which was only a year and a bit ago. So if there's the economic impact that we suspect there will be, you're basically getting the populist right versus the populist left at the next election. And that will probably be replicated across the European continent.

1:05:57Francis Foster:And then you are kind of in the 1920s, 1930s territory. I'm not saying it's the rise of fascism or the rise of Stalin exactly, but you are in a point where the entirety of the centre is broken down and everybody wants a fake simple solution to very complex problems. And people in Britain will absolutely vote for the lunatic fringe far left, as long as the lunatic fringe far left points the fingers at the people they don't like and blames them for the consequences of this conflict. And also, Zach Polanski is very critical of Trump, and he's very anti-Israel. And so what that will see is an increased fracture in alliances between the UK and America.

1:06:46And again, we as a country, economically, we're degrading at a rate which I find profoundly worrying as a British person.

1:06:57Francis Foster:Well, we recorded an interview with Dvakesh Patel, who is, they call him Silicon Valley's favorite podcaster. And one of the questions that our supporters asked in the Substack section was about Britain and AI. And when you said to him, you know, how well is Britain doing on AI? He literally laughed. Because of course, you can't involve yourself in this new growing industry, if you've got very, very high energy prices, as we do. And even though we have one AI company in the UK, their competitive disadvantage is so huge and will become even worse if this economic situation deteriorates, that we're just not going to be able to have a functioning economy.

1:07:38Francis Foster:And look, we should be honest with people, I don't see Britain as a viable place to live for anyone who wants to run any kind of business, including a small business like ours, if you've got a Zach Polanski premiership. I just, I think at that point, even people like us who are desperate to stay and want to make Britain better, we would have to look at that and say there is no future for us here. And that's a very real concern because it's not just, and there'll be people making jokes in the comments, fair enough. But it's not as if we'll be an isolated case. there will be huge swathes of entrepreneurs, people who create jobs, who create wealth, who create opportunities for others, who will look at the economic situation in the UK and go, this is no longer viable.

1:08:27Francis Foster:Well, hold on. You say we won't be an isolated case. We're an isolated case now. We're an isolated case now. Everyone who does a big podcast in the UK, when they get to not even the size we have now, smaller, what do they do? They leave. they leave so we are already an isolated case yeah in that we are desperate to stay and try and make britain better so that our families can live there and enjoy themselves there i mean when i was on stephen bartlett's show the last time diary of seo we talked about this i said to him we've never talked about this stephen but i bet you can name 50 people off the top of your head who've left the uk in the last few years who are entrepreneurs business owners and he's like yeah of course so if you've got an economic problem of the kind that we've described followed by the election of the populist left you will lose everyone everyone who creates jobs and can take their business somewhere else agreed and when you think about it our economy is essentially dependent on financial services how many of them are going to stick around if that happens if we get these kind of taxation, if we get this kind of politics come in.

1:09:37We're essentially going to return to the 1970s, where the top rate of tax was 90 % for the highest earners.

1:09:44Francis Foster:And we should say this, man. Look, in the last couple of years, we've become fairly successful. We pay a lot of tax. I don't mind. I don't mind effectively paying. I don't know what the effect of tax rate exactly, but it's probably something like 40%, let's say. Let's say it's 50 % even. I actually don't mind paying 50 % tax to live in a country with good infrastructure, with safety, with good schools, with good health care, with a functioning government, etc. But we don't have any of those things anymore. And we're getting poorer all the time. And now you want to bring in people who are going to make things a lot worse.

1:10:25Francis Foster:On top of that,

1:10:29Francis Foster:if you are the head of a household, you would not be responsible in keeping your family in that situation if you had the option to have them somewhere else. To say nothing about the fact that obviously, as you've just discussed, the problem of Islamist terrorism, but just integration more broadly is very acute in Britain in a way that it's not remotely like this in the US and in many other parts of the world. So you put all that together, this has the potential, this conflict, if it goes badly, has the potential to make worse things that are already very bad for people in Britain and for the country itself.

1:11:13Agreed, agreed. And that's why when I look at this conflict, I'm not hopeful, but I really do hope that over the next weeks and months, they can sit down in Pakistan or another country if the talks in Pakistan don't come to anything, don't come to fruition, and actually get this sorted out. Because the longer we carry on down this path, the worse it's going to be for everyone involved, but particularly Europe, particularly the UK, and particularly our economies and our politics. Because what we need right now is a lurch away from these types of extremist policies and get back to something more calm and reasonable and stable and sane.

1:11:58And that means an economic policy that actually works for the majority of people, not appealing to people's worse and base instincts and point the finger at others and going, the reason that this country is screwed economically is because of this person or this billionaire, when the reality is the world and life is far more complicated than that. We need to have people who are of the elite, whether it's media or politics, who are actually able to dial down the rhetoric and begin to have better conversations about geopolitics.

1:12:35Francis Foster:You can't dial down the rhetoric. You can't dial down the rhetoric if things are getting worse. It's not going to happen. Why would people dial down the rhetoric if the situation in the country is getting worse, not better? the reason the rhetoric is dialed up is people are desperate yeah the reason the right is as vocal about immigration as it is is that people feel that the situation has become desperate yeah and they're right they're right i mean we we had in the course of this trip robert green who i think in terms of his politics particularly on immigration there's like i don't know if he's pro-open borders exactly but he's as close to that as you can get without being actually pro-open borders and he said when he went to france he looked around in paris and said this country is losing its national identity yeah people in britain a lot of them particularly those on the right feel like the country is losing its national identity because of the scale of mass immigration that we've had and people on the left and frankly across the political spectrum who are not billionaires and who didn't have huge assets that have inflated over the last 20 or 30 years feel that the economic situation is desperate.

1:13:40Francis Foster:And they're right, because we have got poorer since 2008, and we certainly haven't got richer since 2008 on average. And you can perfectly understand people's sense of frustration and the fact that their living standards haven't risen in basically 20 years. And now you've got this potential economic disaster looming as well. You put all that together, no one's going to dial down the retrocomade. that's why you have to fix the actual problems. Yeah, but I was talking also about the way we talk about geopolitics and Israel and all of the rest of it. What we've tried to do on our show is provide an antidote to that and go, look, these are contentious subjects and these are contentious issues, but there is a way to do this and actually have a conversation like we do with Dave Smith or like we did with Mediv about who we disagree with on many different things.

1:14:36but ultimately assume good faith in the person who you're talking to and actually try and see if you can come to some kind of agreement or if not maybe you can learn or change or alter or

1:14:51Francis Foster:you know sometimes you have someone on and meddy is a good example our job is not to challenge every single thing that he says even if we don't agree but it's to show you what his perspective of us and you can like it you can hate it whatever but we have to address people's actual arguments instead of just this mudslinging that you see um and even you know i've obviously been very critical of tucker carson for a long time but even there i criticize the things that he says and the actions that he takes i don't call him names and i don't think that works at all i i don't think people you know maybe I'm wrong maybe in criticizing some of his arguments I probably also call them names I don't have I ever called them names I don't think so maybe I have we'll find out the internet will fact check me on this but my broader point is you have to address people's arguments of course and not enough of that is happening so look we'll continue to cover this I suspect unfortunately this conflict will run I hope it doesn't but if it does we will continue to speak to different people with different perspectives in order to to come to some better understanding of where we are just like we did with the war in gaza where we took a full year really before commenting on it at all this i think is more immediate and the consequences are much more impactful on the rest of the world and us so we'll keep covering it and we'll you know i appreciate that um not everyone who's a fan of our show will agree with what we've laid out here and that is the right.

1:16:23Francis Foster:We've done this many times. You know, I remember when we criticized BLM in the summer of 2020, some people didn't like it. When we criticized January the 6th after that, the people who loved us criticizing BLM didn't like it. And we go through this over time. But the only thing we can do is speak the truth as we see it at the time. And that's what we're going to carry on doing. Absolutely. And hopefully everything will calm down and the rest of 2026 will be smooth sailing. It's only March, believe it or not. Oh, sorry.