"They Didn't Think This Through" - Ex CIA Operator, Mike Baker

24:42Well, look, what's their capabilities? At this point, they've been well degraded, right? But it doesn't take much to blow up some power plants, blow up some desalination plants, blow up some energy infrastructure. And they've got all that mapped out. amazing thing is they've been getting targeting data from both the Russians and the Chinese which is which is kind of fascinating and the White House has been a little dismissive of of the reporting that says the Russians have been assisting not just in targeting data but also in in how to how to make those drone attacks more lethal more you know more efficient more effective and because they've obviously had a fair amount of experience now over the past four years of Putin's invasion.

25:26So that, again, you know, what I'm trying to say, I'm always trying to point out that it's not just here, you know. Sure. Yeah. You know, it's happening all over.

25:35Francis Foster:Well, and look, as someone who's very pro-Ukraine, I nonetheless will say this. I mean, the Russians will say, look at America, how much they're helping Ukraine. You're giving them all the satellite information. You're giving them weapons. You're giving them money. You're giving them the... So like, why wouldn't we help Iran in this situation? And this is the concern. I mean, you talk about uh what would happen if they just the escalation threat is what i think a lot of people are rightly worried about because if the administration goes harder iran is forced to go harder and then you know when we had robert papon that's kind of one of the things he explained is if say you have a marine attempt at a landing on kharg island or to try and take control of the strait that forces iran to take this more seriously they then destroy all kinds of stuff around the Middle East and also in their own country because they're like, well, what do we have to lose?

26:25Yeah, I think this idea, look, they've got, I believe, a second Marine expeditionary unit heading out there. Each one, each of those Mews carry about, what, 2 ,500 Marines and then another couple thousand sailors or so to support those operations. They're really a self-contained assault force, right? And much like we had two carrier strike groups on target, you don't do that just to posture, right? You're not doing this just because you want to show what you can do, right? So that was an indication, along with the fact that they had gotten so many tankers out there, right, which obviously are key to all this aerosol operation, you've got to be able to refuel.

27:12So the fact that you're getting those Marines on target, you have to imagine there's a contingency plan likely for an assault on Carg Island. Now, again, I think they're going to do everything possible to try to avoid that and declare a big win. And then back out of this thing. And whether that happens or not, Iran may have a say in whether that happens or not. But if you put boots on the ground in Karg Island, it doesn't take much. They may, the Iranian regime may decide, okay, well, we're not going after the Saudis. We're not going after UAE because those players, not just them, but the other players also, they're very close to pushing their chips into the center of the table and saying, that's it.

28:02We're going from a defensive posture to an offensive posture. So they may stop short of that, but they will definitely target U.S. military on Karga Island. And you could almost piss on Karga Island from the shoreline, right? I mean, you're not talking about a massive, you know, complex issue. They just have to be successful a handful of times. And then you've got the issue of the U.S. and the population, which is already still, a lot of people have forgotten it, but there's still a lot of folks fatigued from the global war on terror. So you start losing more personnel because now we're in something that doesn't look anything like what they were told it was going to be at the outset.

28:42Yeah, now you've got a problem. And the Iranian regime, they're not stupid, right? A lot of them are dead, but the ones that are living are not stupid. They will have thought this through.

28:52Francis Foster:Right. One thing I want to talk about, Mike, which we haven't addressed yet, is you talked about the U.S. allies in the region. One of them is Israel. and just for people who who may be coming to this fresh who don't know our backstory with it after october 7th we really didn't comment very much on on on israel and that situation for about a year the only thing we've ever really said we've interviewed people who are very pro-israel very pro-palestine somewhere in the middle everybody and where we came down on it among you know among other things is kind of the one thing we've always said about israel we don't want to be hypocrites and be like, oh, look how terrible what they're doing in Gaza is.

29:30Francis Foster:Because I know if our country had been attacked in the way that they were in October's hands, we would have bombed the shit out of anyone who stood next to anyone who walked the dog of anyone who had anything to do with it. That's a fact. And the dog. And the dog, yeah, right? And we wouldn't have given the shit about any of it. So I'm not going to sit here in comfort and safety, isolated from Hamas and Hezbollah and all of that, and tell Israelis how they should do this. You know, we would have done the same. But even we are starting to look at this and we're kind of going, I mean, Israel has got its own, you know, Bibi Netanyahu as the leader of Israel.

30:02Francis Foster:You talk to Israelis now, a lot of Israelis are like, Netanyahu is kind of, you know, he's off the rails a little bit here. And it's becoming very clear, by the way, that Israel and the United States have different agendas here. And it looks to me, I may be completely wrong, but I'm just saying what I'm thinking in the moment. And Francis and I talk about this a lot because it's a thing that we think about. it looks like to many people now and when we talk to people in America like normal people not people who are like anti-israel anti-semitic people who are balanced and reasonable I kind of going well in this conflict it looks to us like the US has drawn in to something that's bad for the US while Israel is getting kind of a lot of what it wanted here is that a fair assessment it's an assessment I don't know I don't know I don't know that I'm qualified to say whether it's a fair assessment or not, right?

30:56Because, again, not being privy to the conversations that took place, you know, leading up to this, you know, yes, you've got a lot of folks that say, oh, my God, Israel dragged them into this war.

31:06Francis Foster:Yeah, I don't think that's true because I don't imagine Israel can, like, a small country, drag a big country. It doesn't make any sense. But what I'm saying is something else, which is from an Israeli perspective, just thinking rationally, I may be totally wrong. I'm not an expert. Bombing the sh** out of Iran is always a good thing. Iran is a regional rival. It funds Hamas, it funds Hezbollah, it funds the Houthis. So you're degrading their ability, the ballistic missile program, their drones. Wonderful. Irrespective of nuclear weapons, irrespective of regime change, you just mow the lawn. But the United States has put itself and the global economy now at risk in some ways for an objective that matters a lot less, I would argue, to the United States.

31:49Francis Foster:Yeah, I think, yeah, just proximity, right? I mean, look, you know, Israel's dealing with an existential threat, right? They're surrounded by this problem, right? And so, yeah, you're right in a sense, right? The U.S. So, but U.S. administrations, they tend to sometimes, they'll act in a way that you look and you think, well, why are they doing this, right? Why do they feel as if they need to do this? There's some moral obligation or there's some desire to spread democracy or whatever the reason may be. And so, you know, again, staying away from this whole idea of, you know, Israel and what their their intention, I think, here is.

32:34Is not to not to bring this to a close in the same way that that the U.S. is looking to do. They're not facing the same or calculating this the same way. And so I think what we're seeing is Netanyahu, and he's always had his detractors inside Israel. So that's nothing new. There's a large contingent there in Israel that thinks, if we could just get rid of Netanyahu, we'll all live in peace somehow. And so putting Israeli politics aside, because I'm definitely not qualified to talk about it, from a military perspective, from an operational perspective, right, they seem to have done this. They've pushed their chips and said, we are using this as an opportunity because if we don't get to a point, again, I don't know that they're thinking regime change.

33:22I think they're a little bit too pragmatic for that. But I think they're thinking we have to be comfortable with the amount of damage we've done to the Iranian military capabilities, particularly the missile program. They've been more worried about the missile program for years than they have been about the nuclear program. Then and also with their proxies, particularly Hezbollah. Right. I think that's that's where they want to be. They want to be comfortable enough and they've got their intelligence in that region tends to be better than U.S. intelligence. Right. I mean, again, because of proximity and years of having to do this and their abilities of of working within that environment.

34:02so they you're right they've you and you can see these different agendas now you know and they're they're they're diverging um and then you've got the other part of it which is what are the the gulf states thing right what are the saudi's thing and there's some interesting reporting whether it's accurate or not again you have to kind of balance it out and say well let's see if it gets corroborated here somehow. But, you know, with MBS, with the head of Saudi talking about staying in the fight, right? He's urging, supposedly, the White House to not stop, right? Because most of those folks out there know that if you leave the regime in place, at some point, they're going to have to do this over again.

34:46Someone's got to do this over again, right? Because it's not as if they're going to give up right if the theocracy stays in place it's not like they're going to have a i was about to say come to jesus moment but guess that's not happening that seems unlikely that seems unlikely but um then you know so they're going to maintain their objectives it's just going to be much harder for them and like i said the the can's been kicked much further down the road so maybe now instead of uh you know a couple years of a window you know now they're looking at 10 years 15 years to rebuild and get to a point where then it has to happen again but it will have to happen again i don't think they're changing their stripes if they stay in place and in fact some would argue they now have

35:26Francis Foster:a much stronger incentive to get a nuke an actual nuke before this they were enriching uranium now they actually have an incentive to build a bomb and test it so we know they have a bomb as quickly as possible so this can't happen again right right can we stop that is it it's possible to stop it do we have the the will or the uh the uh i mean we have the ability i think sure of invading the whole country right with two million men exactly can we stop it in another way i think yes i think um they did not they definitely didn't obliterate the president again don't take the president literally when he says we obliterated it you know you didn't but of course it came back to bite him in the ass right well if you'd obliterated we wouldn't be having this war now right what i mean go after the missile program maybe but we wouldn't be still talking about in the towns and the other facilities so um but i do think that they they could but it you know never say never right you never get to a zero risk in any of this right so there's there's always that slight chance that i mean nobody really has solid intel on where the enriched uranium is maybe it's buried well underground at this point um maybe some of us move.

36:38Maybe the North Koreans decide, after looking at this, they think, hey, we made the right move. We raced to get that nuke weapon. Now look at us. We're safe. Like you said, the Iranians, you know, the regime will take that lesson. Maybe the North Koreans step in and help, right? I mean, the Russians have been helping them with technology transfer for the past four years. It wasn't pro bono on the part of the Iranian government to help them with drone technology so yeah there's there there is that fact that if the regime stays in place it's it's more hard line probably the irgc has more say in things likely um and i don't think they're going to change their stripes and give up there was a little bit of talk i it was talk the other day about well you know that this this conversation that supposedly is taking place off the radar with somebody in the Iranian regime.

37:28They floated the idea that we'll give up our nuclear ambitions. I'm thinking like, no, they're not.

37:34Francis Foster:Why would they do that? Yeah, exactly. But, you know, again, I think they read American politics pretty well. And they're probably saying, look, maybe the White House just wants something to grasp onto and claim victory and say, look what we did. Try to get back to normal. Fume is a flavoured air device designed to help people quit vaping and smoking by breaking the hand-to-mouth pattern. It's simple, natural, and honestly, kind of genius. No nicotine, no batteries, no vapour. Just weighted, twisty, fidget-friendly tool that gives your hand something better to reach for when cravings show up. I used to be the person standing outside in the cold, telling myself I'd quit next week.

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38:51Don't just try to quit. Upgrade the habit loop. Fume has already helped over 700 ,000 people take steps towards better habits. Use code TRIG to get a free gift with your journey pack. Head to tryfume.com and use code TRIG. That site again is T-R-Y-F-U-M.com and use code TRIG to claim your free gift today. Hey, look, this is a very difficult question to ask, Mike. Well, don't ask. But this is what a lot of people are thinking. What is the likelihood, if Iran gets nukes, that they actually use them, that they actually fire one into Tel Aviv? Is that hyperbole or is that within the realms of possibility?

39:37You know, I think it's within the realm of possibility. It's like, do aliens exist? Sure. And don't say no. That would seem silly and preposterous. and a little bit arrogant, but I think with that idea of nukes, I think, would they use it? I think a regime like theirs is the possibility is increased somewhat because of the zealous nature of a theocracy. and again because of this look people have done you know incredible things in the name of religion over the life of this planet and so uh i wouldn't it kind of comes back around when again the white house came out with this you know we had an imminent threat i don't know was it imminent who knows and then the president comes out and says you know if we hadn't done what we did on the 20th of February, what did he say, within two weeks, you know, they would have had a nuclear weapon.

40:39I don't know. I don't know that he got that intel, right? And I don't know that the intel was credible. And I don't know if he had the intel that he should actually say it in a press conference. But do I think that there's a possibility that if they had reached that stage, that now you're a little bit more angst-ridden because they've got it and they have stated many many times that you know their primary objective is the destruction of Israel get them off the map there's that possibility I guess and nukes come in all shapes and sizes right you don't necessarily have to drop the big one right but anyway I don't think anybody in the region wants them to have that we're not so the u.s and israel are not alone in this in a sense right well hold on mike see

41:26Francis Foster:sorry to bite into your line of question francis but this is the really important distinction that we've explored with all kinds of guests we've had experts on islamism on the show we've had iranian dissidents on the show we've had all kinds of people on the show and whenever we bring up you know well why does iran want nuclear weapons why should we fear around having nuclear weapons there was go oh yeah you know they practice this 12-a shia islam which means that they're waiting for the messiah and blah blah blah so therefore they're you know you can't trust them because religion and blah blah blah whenever we push those people on that issue they always kind of back away and so then i go okay well what if iran i mean much more likely out scenarios iran wants nuclear weapons for the same reason everybody wants nuclear weapons which means you get to dominate your region you can't be invaded you can do whatever the hell you want you can fund your proxies to attack Israel and nobody's gonna bomb the out of you etc and that seems to me like the much more likely explanation well I think it's it's the more and I don't say safe it's the more logical explanation because nobody knows if they would use a nuclear weapon or not right I mean that's just a reality I don't have a clue but I would I be a little more concerned if they have it would I be more concerned that because you just said they would do whatever they want well we've already seen when they do what they want how bad it is it's not good and it's and it's not good for the stability and long-term uh you know success of the region i don't want to run to have a nuclear weapon but what the point i'm trying to make is it seems to me that people are very cavalier with the claim that the moment they get a nuke they're going to drop it on television right yeah and that and so so when we talk about that that worries me that people because if we actually believe that if we actually thought that they've got nuclear material, they're going to build a bomb, and they're going to drop it on Tel Aviv the day that they do.

43:19Francis Foster:You'd be going, well, then in that case, we literally have to do to them... Do anything possible. To what we did to Germany and Japan. Right? That's what we've got to do. But no one's talking about doing any of that, which tells me that this is probably BS, with all respect. Well, I don't know whether it's BS. I think it's a way to justify what you're doing. I do think that and again I go back to the same thing I have no clue if they would drop the bomb on Tel Aviv as soon as they get it they have stated what they'd like to do to Tel Aviv we have seen what they've done in the past we know that they're a destabilizing factor in the region and that's not just the US saying that, that's the Saudis and the Qataris and everybody else out there but yeah I don't disagree with the fact that it is used as justification when, in fact, hey, you don't know that, because I don't disagree.

44:16They want it for leverage, for sure. And that leverage would allow them then to do kind of what they want to do, certainly in the region. And we don't want that. That's a problem.

44:28Francis Foster:And that's bad. But it's so different from the claim that's being made. And that kind of bothers me. I mean, maybe I'm being naive, but I don't like it when people are lying about it because it matters, right? Yeah, I don't know that. I mean, I guess some people, I'm sure, straight up line. Some people are. Who knows? Maybe they're couching it in terms of, you know, well, this is just the geopolitical realities that we face. So we have to do this. You know, someone's got to step forward. I don't know. But I don't disagree with the idea that it is used as justification. Right. Without 100 percent certainty.

45:02But you're not going to get 100 percent certainty on this world. Yeah, that's also true. Sorry, Francis. No, no. But moving on now, one of the issues that we haven't addressed is terrorism and global terrorism. And there's a very real threat now that Iran is going to launch a global wave of terror against the UK, the US. How big of a concern is that? And what do you think the likely impact of that will be? Yeah. You know, I think just from an operational perspective, I think my bigger concern is all the individuals out there, the lone wolf individuals, the copycats, whatever, who get triggered by this and decide not.

45:43They don't get a phone call from, you know, Mushtab al-Khamenei or somebody saying, yeah, I want you to go do this now. You know, you're a sleeper cell, so now wake up. It's more the people who think this is my justification for going out and doing something. Right. And those in part, sometimes because of the disjointed nature of something like that and the inability to see it coming or pick up communications intercepts on something like that. they are very difficult, right, to, you know, identify and then to mitigate that risk. So that's the part. The state-sponsored issue? Well, sure. I mean, if I was the Iranian regime over the past handful of years, would I want support assets in the UK?

46:31Would I want support assets in the U.S.? You know, absolutely, right? And what would I want them doing? Well, I'd want them, you know, pulling a recce on an interesting site that maybe we would consider to be a soft target. And so. So, yeah, the the the counterterrorism people in the U.S. are stretched then. Right. They're they're working their asses off all the time. But you could argue they've been doing that, you know, for years now. I mean, everybody's tired from the war on terror, but the terrorists aren't tired from it. You know, elements of it. And and the people that are trying to fight it on the other side, on the counterterrorism operations, they haven't given up.

47:09It's not like they got tired of the whole effort. And so the past few years, they just let it go. So in a sense, there's nothing new there. It's just, yeah, OK, fine. You've got a heightened threat alert because of this. But like I said, I think the bigger issue is those people out there that for whatever reason, right, they're true believers or they're, you know, they've got mental issues. They're going going to look at this and go, this is my justification. But that must be a genuine worry for America, because since we've been here, which is a comparatively short period of time, we've seen, I think, already three Islamist terrorist attacks in the U.S.

47:46I mean, you must be worried. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Everybody's you're worried. But at the same time, you know, you can't sit in your foxhole. Right. So you got to get out and get busy. And what I do know is that since 9-11, all those years ago which seems like ancient history man I've got teenagers and they yeah I talked to them about it and they kind of look at me like hmm really it's like when I talked to my middle boy who's a basketball player talk to him about the old guys right Bob Cousy Pete Meribut say like oh come on you know seriously honk right and those guys so I think it's it's it is you you You get to a certain point when you work counterterrorism operations, whether at the local or the state or the federal level or overseas, where you become very pragmatic about it because you know the threat's always there.

48:42The methodology doesn't tend to change much. Technology can change kind of how you gather intelligence to some degree, but you just kind of keep ticking along. So I'm not saying I'm not worried. I'm just saying, man, you just you just raise the alert. But it's the same problem. But there's got to be a renewed focus, because from an outsider's point of view, I'm looking at going. So there was one in Michigan with a truck loaded with explosives trying to drive into a synagogue. Then you had a potential nail bomb attack in New York. Then you had the shooting in Austin. Yeah. I mean, and this comes on the heels of and this is another thing that I would have been doing if I was the Iranian regime.

49:23I would have been taking advantage of what essentially was a very porous border for several years under the previous administration. Vetting just wasn't there. Right. And because they weren't focusing on it, they didn't have the resources down there. And so the Customs and Border Patrol, you know, they did what they could do, but there was really no vetting. And so the idea of how many people came across that border with nefarious intent, right, whatever it may be for narcotics trafficking or for terrorism purposes, we don't really know. Right. And so that's a problem. And so it compounded this already, you know, significant issue of of terrorism on the home front.

50:03And you're right. Obviously, the conflict, anytime you have a conflict, right, you got a problem. I mean, obviously, 7 October, the height of the alert, you know, was was raised and it just happens whenever there's something like this. The target can change. Right. And who you're looking at. And but on the other side, again, this idea of the the the individual who's triggered into a lone wolf attack. You know, they're they're always out there. Right. Right. So it sometimes I guess what I'm saying is sometimes with the state sponsored, it can be I don't say it's easy, but it can be a little less complicated and not quite as much based on luck.

50:46You know, with a lone wolf, maybe you get lucky and the individual's cousin sees something and actually says something. Right. That's kind of what you have to hope for is that somebody within that orbit is willing to speak up. If that doesn't happen, you know, it can be very difficult. because senior security officials in the UK have said that they're highly worried that what the Iranians are going to do is pay petty criminals nominal sums of money like 500 pound a thousand pound to create small acts of terror in order to destabilize security to destabilize society and we saw an incident in the UK a few weeks ago where ambulances were set on fire.

51:30And the Islamist group came out and said, we claim responsibility for this. Now, we don't know. Is that a ploy? Is that a game? Is that a mind game? Or is it actually true? And what happens is that as that continues, it destabilizes society. Sure. It's like shutting down the straddle of Hormuz, right? It doesn't take much, right, to do something that has this outsized impact, right? So a handful of incidents, and what have you done? Suddenly, you know, everybody's losing their shit, right? And it becomes a real, after 9-11, you know, that was a major, a major event, obviously. That was a statement of rocket science.

52:13But people kind of pulled together, right? And so you developed a mindset within a population that said, and that was a very helpful thing for a period of time. But then again, like I said, everyone's gotten tired. We've got a got out of that. Everybody's back to listening to their AirPods and staring at their phone when they're walking around. Nobody's operationally aware. Not that they should be, but pay some attention, I guess is what I'm saying. So this is when you when you look at the potential for just a handful of things to create an outsized impact on a population, You know, a handful of lone wolf terrorist incidents.

52:56I mean, bin Laden talked about this, you know, well before 9-11. He was going to bankrupt America, right, through using our own civil liberties and, you know, freedoms, cause us to kind of retract and do what we did, which was this, you know, multi-decade effort against the war on terror. So, yeah, and again, the IRGC and the goods force and, you know, all their proxies, they're not stupid, right? They know how to do this. But whether there's, you know, I don't have access to that intelligence, but I will say the FBI and other authorities in the states spend a massive amount of time focused on this very issue.

53:40And they have gotten much better over the years, right? We had some problems with siloed information leading up to 9-11 and some other issues in terms of lack of human sources in different places. But they have gotten much better at the process of sharing intelligence from across the board, the state, the local, the federal authorities, working with liaison partners overseas. So that part of it's the good news. But they just need to have success, you know, once or twice a handful of times to change the entire dynamic of a country. And also, radicalization is a major problem, particularly within the Muslim community.

54:19Because you're thinking there will be a lot of potentially young men who are looking to this, and some young women, who will get radicalized by certain preachers. We've seen it happen time and time in the UK. And all of a sudden, you have a portion of the population who are American-born who suddenly become a threat to the country. Yeah. Yeah. Well, again, when you have an incident and it's a really interesting dynamic, right? The way that social media has changed how we how we process information as soon as there's an incident, whether it's the Michigan synagogue attack or anything. Suddenly, everybody's a reporter.

54:57Right. Everybody's a journalist. So they're on their phone. And then you've got this segment of society that they'll see a they'll see a name. right oh well that sounds sounds middle eastern you know i knew it i just knew it right and then they'll look and they'll say oh wait a minute he was in the national guard here in the u.s wait a minute he was he was born wherever in the states what and so there it's a confusing dynamic but it speaks to exactly what you're saying which is you trying to identify these individuals is you need an element of luck i never had a single operation in in uh in the agency uh that didn't have some element of luck when there was success involved.

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57:11Francis Foster:Mike, one of the other things I want to ask you about is it seems inevitable to me that this will change very much the dynamic of the relationship between European countries, including our country, the UK, and America. Because I'll be honest with you, I think from the European perspective, This kind of looks at this point, as we sit here talking, a little bit like America and Israel went and did a thing. And now they expect us to pay the price of that. And that's going to piss a lot of people off. Yeah. Well, it already has. I was in I was in London when President Trump was making those comments about Keir Starmer.

57:52You know, he's not Winston Churchill. And, you know, we don't need anybody to come into the fight after we've already won.

58:00and you know as a as a dual citizen in the US and UK I found it offensive and I didn't like that because I don't like we shouldn't be talking that way about close allies right where we've got so much history right and there's been disagreements in the past that's true so I thought not not the best move but then you step back and you go well what else do you expect you know you know what you're going to get from President Trump which is in part why his base just loves right because in a sense he kind of talks like that right he feels like the guy next door right in a way and I think they they like that but it also leads to these messaging issues and and so my point is something else yeah which is

58:47Francis Foster:while he was slanging off Keir Starmer yeah I was very happy with that because Well, yeah, it depends on your politics. Keir Starmer is not Winston Churchill. And it's not really even about politics, actually. It's about reality. So both Labour and Conservative governments in our country, they've run down the military. They've run down our industrial base. They've run down our intelligence operator. They've run down almost everything that we need to make ourselves safe. And so when Marco Rubio or when President Trump comes over to Davos or to Munich and they tell Europeans, you need to up your game.

59:21Francis Foster:I'm rooting for them when they say that. I think that's important. The point I'm making here is this isn't about talk anymore. This is about you went and caused the Strait of Hormuz to get closed, and we are the ones that suffer from that because we are the ones that import the gas, the oil, the fertilizer, etc. In a way that actually the United States is quite insulated from. I mean, you produce almost all your own energy, etc. We don't. And so having taken this action, now we in Europe and in the UK are supposed to suffer the economic consequences of the action. It's not about talk. It's about reality.

59:57Well, the talk also is when you I guess my point being is when you slack somebody off and then you have to turn around and ask for their help. Yeah, that's that's a messaging problem. Yeah. But but then the logistics side of it, you know, the actual real world impact is. Yeah, you're right. I mean, now and I think that there's a lot of there's a lot of. of Gulf states that feel that way. You know, what the hell, right? And we weren't happy with the Iranian regime, but, you know, we kind of had this thing going, right? And now it appears to be somewhat fucked up. So, and that kind of goes back to something we were talking about earlier.

1:00:33A scenario that you could have argued might have produced somewhat different results would have been to include some of your allies in the pre-planning. Now, you know, there are some in the states who will say, well, that's that, you know, then you take away the element of surprise. And again, well, you're not talking to them about a specific targeting operation on a specific date and specific time. You're saying, look, we have to have these conversations because here's what we believe. Here's what we think. Can we get some agreement? People don't agree. Fine. You still have the same result you go out and do it on your own right but i think there probably could have been a way to do this right and and you know there'll be again i'm always amazed at you know that there's there's a lot of folks who think well that's bull we don't need anybody else and president trump has enunciated that pretty clearly you know lately but that's not true we do need other people right you can't you you can't draw the curtains around uh the u.s and say that we're we're isolationists right i love that sort of i i i would love to be in a world where you could be libertarian and isolationist and the wouldn't hit the fan right on a regular basis i think that'd be lovely but that's not my experience anyway from being overseas for a long period of time

1:01:52Francis Foster:and some shit can you elaborate on this mike because you know there are a lot of people who have that view dave smith is prominent proponent very smart guy yeah we've had him on the show we had a great debate you know we don't agree with dave but he puts his arguments well why is that worldview not accurate in your opinion because i i guess it's it has to be based on your your life experiences right my life experiences have been a lot of it being overseas in some fairly hostile environments where you see how people treat each other and sort of the worst sides of humanity. And I don't live in a world where I think we're so disconnected that we can just ignore everything else that happens around the world and somehow we're not going to be impacted.

1:02:40I'm a big believer in the fact that, you know, something you do some over here, it's going to impact over here right the world's too goddamn small anymore and and it worked one time but a couple hundred years ago right and now that's not how we're we're all so tied together so that's that's what i mean by that i don't my personal experience has been it tells me that while it'd be lovely you know um this is not a community of nations where everyone's got everybody else's best interest at heart right and so um that's that's but again i get it i get dave and and others who think that way and and you know if if i felt that was the way the world worked then i'd probably think that too right hey great but anyway that's that's where i that's all i have to

1:03:29Francis Foster:say about that well that's not your experience i get it i mean one of the points you make about the impact this happens here and then there's an impact over there is in terms of european and countries in the uk i mean i don't know what's going to happen nobody does but logically speaking if the united states is not effectively acting like your ally anymore talking about you causing you problems i mean a logical solution for a lot of european countries would be to do a separate deal with iran yeah yeah or logical deal is to you know kind of tighten that that alliance you know within the eu and and you know say okay fine and i think that was you know i agree when when uh when trump was talking about the lack of spending on for nato yeah great yeah absolutely you know yep get on board right have a little more skin in the game um but again i i i suppose right you you could make an argument for could the eu cut a deal with iran um i don't know i don't know that that would work um i'm just i'm thinking through this out loud uh but i would see where you could eventually get to that point if you get you know your ass kicked enough by what you thought was a tight ally.

1:04:52And, you know, so now, look, you don't need to go any further than saying, we don't need you, we don't need anyone. And then over here, well, you know, we're going to need your support in opening the strait. Because, look, you guys have a lot of skin in the game because, you know, it's more important to you than it is to us. Well, we're the ones who created this problem, right? The U.S. military. So I just think that that's where I come back around to saying sometimes and it gets a bad name sometimes in the U.S. among certain folks. Again, a lot of times people who think that, you know, it's it's it's the U.S.

1:05:27It's our way or no way in the real world. You do need to think about coalition building. Right. You do need to think about marshalling your resources along with your allies. You know, for force multiplier purposes that has more impact. I do think if we had thought this through and if we had worked a little harder on that idea that we probably wouldn't have had this issue. They still would have tried to blockade the strait, but we would have been on top of it. It wouldn't have been a reactive moment, right? We would have been proactively dealing with it, not just us.

1:06:01Francis Foster:Well, the attitude to Iran and, you know, the not thinking through what they are likely to do seems to me to be kind of replicated in Europe where you go, well, whatever you think about Keir Starmer or Macron or whoever, You have to understand their situation from their point of view. If you're the leader of a European country, you're looking down the barrel of a recession. People don't generally get re-elected in the middle of a recession. If something goes bad in your country economically, you tend to get the blame and you tend to get voted out. So you're putting these people who are already in quite a weak position into a bind.

1:06:37Francis Foster:Then you're talking about them. Then you're trying to pin the blame on them for something you did. You put all that together. I mean, you could be talking about a permanent fracturing of the alliance. Yeah, I don't think it's going to go that far, because, again, I think the White House will do what they can to get out of this here relatively soon. Because they, not because of that, but because of internal U.S. political concerns. But there's also this thought that, OK, well, right now, you know, our EU allies are saying, ah, they're not going to, you know, they're not going to take part. Maybe they'll do something appropriate, which I think was the phrase they used the other day, you know, take appropriate measures.

1:07:19You know, that's what that means. But then I think there was some thinking in D.C., in Washington, D.C., that, well, they'll come around once they realize how bad economically this could be for them. you know and and from the energy supply they'll come around right and to the point of self-preservation maybe they will because they'll look and go all right well better we go all in and help open the straight then face this problem with on the global energy markets and suddenly we're in a recession and now we're going to get kicked out so they may do a calculation that says all right we don't like it and yes we're you know we feel insulted but maybe out of self-preservation so that we don't completely get our ass handed to us in the next election we'll go all in and help with the efforts maybe that so that may play a role in this again coming back around to the idea

1:08:14Francis Foster:that politics influences everything and speaking of politics one of the things we've seen obviously in this country in the united states is there's been like incredible levels of support for the war from Trump's base. Yes. Yeah. Is that going to last if this drags on? No. No, it won't. Because while his base is very supportive, there's, you maybe take a knife and cut half of that out and say, if this thing is a protracted conflict, you're going to lose half that base. Because they're not all in on that. and I don't I just don't see the White House going all in on that I think they they're really looking at this stage of the game for some way out and they're gonna have to be careful because what does that do that gives the Iranians leverage right then suddenly they read the the you know the tea leaves and they say okay and here's our list of concessions that we want and I think that's already happening, you know, whomever they're talking to, if they're talking to somebody, right?

1:09:21And that's a big question, right? Because, you know, who's got the ability, right, to cut a deal at this stage of the game, right? Again, Mushtab al-Khamenei, he hasn't been seen ever since he was named as his successor. There's no evidence that he's copacetic, right? So who is it? I would argue it's not the Speaker of the Parliament, right, Muhammad Khalifa, you know, he's not a reformist, right? So who are you trying to cut a deal with? The IRGC, right? They've got a new commander of the IRGC after they whacked the last two. Head of the Quds Force, maybe? There's not a lot of people out there that you could argue can carry out a deal that the various elements now of the Iranian leadership that exists would agree to.

1:10:18And maybe now they're at odds with each other, right, over do you have discussions? No, we don't want discussions. Do you cut a deal? Do you find some concessions? What do those concessions look like? So this is going to be very complicated, but I do think the White House is very keen to make that happen for what you've described. That support, even from the base, is not going to last if people start to think this thing's dragging on into the early summer. Mike, pleasure as always to have you on the show. Really? Do you mean that? Yeah, of course. It's always great to chat. Final question is always the same.

1:10:51What's the one thing we're not talking about that we really should be? I'll tell you what I think. It's going to sound odd, but I think it's Ukraine. Because for the past several weeks, there's almost no headline, right? In the U.S., it's particularly noticeable. We do seem to have ADHD, right? So we can't focus on more than one thing. So you're hard-pressed to know, you know, that there's something happening in that conflict. And, you know, the ground's thawing. You know, we're moving into the spring fighting season. And it looks like so far over the, you know, recent week, few days, that you're getting a start of what looks like a spring, maybe early summer offensive.

1:11:39It's still a major conflict, causing major suffering, and with the potential to really create problems for NATO, for the EU. Putin's showing no signs of backing off his demands. I don't think he sees any downside to continuing the effort. and yet because of the way information flows and how we're all like raccoons chasing the next shiny tinfoil ball we've taken our eye off it and it's like it's not even happening and so i think that's the one thing people need to kind of touch back in and say oh that's going on

1:12:15Francis Foster:mike and why is it still going on because president trump you know repeatedly you talk about not taking them literally i mean he said to end the war on day one it's been a lot of days Yeah. And spend more than one day. I will say that. Yeah. If I knew that, you know, I'd get myself one of those Nobel Peace Prizes, you know, if someone would just give me one. But I think that the part of the problem there is Putin, again, doesn't see a downside to doing this. He still believes that I think he can outlast the West. He can outlast Ukraine. He's got the manpower advantage. but when you look at it and you think it's been all these years and he's in a World War I scenario where they're trench fighting it's remarkable and it's remarkable also from a technology standpoint how drone warfare has just completely changed the battlefield we're seeing that played out now obviously in the Iran conflict but that is an absolutely fascinating part of that whole sad story Mike thanks for coming on Head on over to triggerpod.co.uk where Mike is going to answer your questions.

1:13:24Who do you see, if there is anyone, as a viable opposition leader replacement for the current regime that would be acceptable to the non-radicalised populace?

1:13:52We'll see you next time.