E25: Frank Rotman of QED on Navigating FinTech and Crypto Investments

6 Feb 2024 · 1 h 10 min

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In short

Podcast Notes: "E25: Frank Rotman of QED on Navigating FinTech and Crypto Investments"

Host

Erik Torenberg

Guest

Frank Rotman, Founding Partner of QED Investors

Overview In this episode, Erik Torenberg converses with Frank Rotman, a prominent venture capitalist focused on fintech investments. The discussion centers around the current state of fintech, the evolution of neobanks, macroeconomic factors affecting investments, and insights into the future of fintech and crypto.

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Key Themes and Topics

  1. Current State of Fintech
  2. Evolution of the Fintech Landscape:
  3. QED Investors was founded in 2008, a time when fintech was not yet a recognized sector, with only $1 billion invested globally.
  4. Fast forward to 2021, the investment surged to over $140 billion, highlighting the maturation and growth of the sector.
  5. Market Performance:
  6. Current declining valuations raise questions about the sustainability of the fintech boom.
  7. Emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying value and necessity of banking products amidst technological advancements.
  1. Banks vs. Startups
  2. Incumbents vs. Disruptors:
  3. Traditional banks offer essential services and have profitability due to their established structures.
  4. New fintech entrants are targeting niche products, allowing for more specialized services.
  5. Opportunities for Fintech:
  6. The potential for neobanks to thrive by offering world-class services without the overhead of traditional banking structures.
  7. Importance of recognizing customer needs and creating bespoke products.
  1. Macro Environment Influences
  2. Impact of Market Cycles:
  3. The need for discipline and resilience in investment practices, especially in light of changing macroeconomic conditions.
  4. The current downturn is seen as a return of discipline to the venture capital landscape, allowing for better asset allocation.
  1. Investment Philosophy
  2. Discipline in Venture Capital:
  3. The shift from a period of abundant capital where discipline was lacking, to a more cautious and calculated approach in investment.
  4. Founders should focus on understanding the financial aspects of their businesses and the importance of paths to profitability.
  1. Crypto and Its Role in Finance
  2. Challenging Traditional Banking:
  3. Crypto represents a complex and evolving landscape with significant potential but also inherent risks.
  4. Rotman discusses the misunderstanding by many crypto founders regarding the historical context of banking principles and their relevance today.
  5. Future of Crypto:
  6. Potential for technologies like NFTs and stablecoins to create new business models and disrupt traditional financial systems.
  7. Emphasizes that the technology should be focused on solving real problems instead of merely creating new financial concepts.
  1. Neobanks and Emerging Markets
  2. Global Perspective on Neobanks:
  3. Neobanks are evolving differently across regions, with varying levels of technological adoption and market readiness.
  4. The importance of understanding cultural and infrastructural nuances when applying successful fintech models from one region to another.

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Key Takeaways

  • Fintech Evolution: The fintech landscape has transformed from a nascent field to an integral part of the financial ecosystem, demanding a greater level of scrutiny and understanding.
  • Investment Discipline: The current market environment necessitates a disciplined approach to investing, focusing on fundamentals and paths to profitability.
  • The Role of Technology: The emergence of technologies such as crypto and NFTs offers exciting opportunities, but they must be approached with a clear understanding of their implications.

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Conclusion Frank Rotman's insights provide a thoughtful look into the complexities of investing in fintech and crypto. As the industry evolves, both investors and startups must remain adaptable, disciplined, and focused on delivering real value.

For more detailed insights, listeners are encouraged to follow Frank on social media and explore QED Investors' work in the fintech space.

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Transcript

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0:12Welcome back to Turpentine VC, a podcast where we discuss the art and science of building successful venture venture firms, VC to VC. For today's episode, we have Frank Rotman. Frank is a founding partner of QED Investors, a fintech-focused VC firm. We discuss the state of fintech, neobanks, incumbent advantages in fintech, the disappearance of VC discipline during ZERP, crypto, and much more. Here's our conversation.

0:56frank welcome to the podcast thanks so much for joining happy to be here so frank what why don't we situate the conversation first by talking about contextualizing where we are where is fintech today um like what are some of the biggest questions that you're asking yourself how are you approaching the space as an investor, especially for the tempestuous years we've had since COVID? Why don't you give some broader context on where FinTech is today, and then we'll dive into some of the specifics. Yeah. So it's a really interesting question and probably one of the only important ones if you're a specialist.

1:33You have to answer where the thing is that you're working on, like what's interesting about it and is it target rich or not? It's interesting just putting it in context though. So we started QED in 2008, arguably one of the worst years to actually start a fintech focused fund, you know, at the beginning of the global financial crisis. And the idea of disrupting banks when they were struggling with capital adequacy and, you know, all of the challenges they had really wasn't top of mind. But it was actually a pretty interesting time to start because we had the ability to get to know everything that was happening in the space because there really wasn't that much happening.

2:12And back then, to put it in context, about a billion dollars globally was invested in fintech type things during the calendar year of 2008. And there wasn't even a name for it, by the way. Like we were thinking about it as financial services or banking disruption. Like we didn't even have a name for the thing that we were doing. Fast forward to the peak, which was about two years ago, and over 140 billion was invested globally in fintech. Now, a billion and 140 billion, like I actually am pretty good at math, but for those of you who might struggle a bit, those aren't the same numbers, right? Like a billion and 140 billion are completely different ecosystems.

2:56And there's a reason for that. You know, this thing called fintech is real. The services of banking were poised to be disrupted because of some new S-curves that were kind of hitting the market in terms of technology and in terms of things that could be done that could not have been done in the past. And, you know, globally, when the art of the possible has been discovered, where, you know, some things have been created in one geography that others are looking at or in one part of the ecosystem that another part is looking at, once the art of the possible has been discovered, capital starts pouring in and talent starts pouring in.

3:33So a lot of things happened at the same time to turn this ecosystem from something that was relatively small. It was about building niche products and services that actually helped banks or products and services that you could snap out from the bank and you could do one thing incredibly well. And then hopefully, if you're successful, you would sell to a bank for a couple million dollars or you know maybe it was something that you could go public with. So we're at a very different point in you know the discovery of what fintech is and you know that takes us to today. I mean it's not a surprise that with the market down fintechs are down as well.

4:12People are questioning is this thing that we thought was real still real and my answer to that is really to go up to the 50 ,000 foot level and understand what you're investing in and what you're trying to disrupt. So if you take any stock exchange on the face of the planet, and you actually look at the top market cap companies on those stock exchanges, you're going to find banks. And they're there not because they're interesting and sexy and cool, like that is the least thing that they are. They're banks. But they're there because the products and services they offer are essential to society.

4:51And if assembled right, a bank is incredibly profitable. We're not talking about revenue, we're talking about profit, right? Economic profit. So if these banks that are at the top of the ecosystem in terms of very large companies with large profit pools, but they're dealing with technology that is 10, 20, 30, 40 years old in terms of the technology layers they're using, and there are new forms and fashions of ways people are consuming products. Think about the phones that people have as a substitute for people walking into branches. So a lot of things are happening that make this thing called fintech real.

5:36So over this past cycle, which I would claim started in about 2008 and takes us to today, I think it's really been about practicing and showing the art of the possible. It's about UX, UI, and APIs and reducing the friction of application. And now we're dealing with core levels of infrastructure and some new S-curves that can change the manufacturing process for products or embed the products in other people's distribution chains or in the software they use to support customers. So I think that you're going to see a lot of fintech attack more of the fundamental building blocks of what create the products now that everyone has kind of practiced and seen what could be built.

6:27That's fascinating. Can you share more about that or flesh that out even further of what are some examples of things that we're seeing or that we would expect to see, if that holds true? Yeah. So if you think about any product or service, you know, the the classic way that you know that someone has a problem is when they go to Google and they ask Google to solve their problem for them. Right. I mean, it's like the universal therapist as well as the universal, you know, shopping cart for everyone where they say, I've got a problem. I don't know where the answer is. I'm going to go look. Yeah. So Google has always been, you know, since its invention, you know, kind of a place to intercept signal.

7:09And, you know, therefore, if you can intercept it, you can say that problem that you're searching for a solution for. We are that solution. You should buy our product. Right. So it's been a really interesting marketing channel. There are a lot of other marketing channels that have existed as well. Right. So think about direct mail, which has been around for a very long time as a way of distributing products. It's really a channel that you can attach data to. And if you have the right data to understand who the customers are that live at certain addresses, you can figure out who might want your product and you can distribute it that way.

7:42And there are channels that are somewhere in the middle, like a Facebook or, you know, some of the other social media channels where it's about building awareness, you know, within different populations. And if you build enough awareness, they might actually click on it and they might actually buy your product. um within banking there's another distribution channel that's been around for a very long time which are these things called bank branches you know that are 50 by 50 boxes on street corners that have big signs over them that you know that if you have a financial problem you can walk into it and it might have friction associated with it but you're probably going to walk out with a solution right so you've got to think about these channels as ways of actually finding solutions to problem or getting products that you want.

8:29And I think with the new technology layers that have been built around fintech, you know, think about APIs where now computers can talk to computers. You know, you have the ability to create an entirely new channel, which is to go where the customers are. So it's created a very interesting new vector for building fintech products, which is embedding them in places where the customers already are. So we're seeing a lot of intersections of industries and fintech. So think about healthcare and payments. That's a giant problem that has bespoke processes associated with them that should have bespoke solutions associated with them.

9:14And instead of saying, look, here I'm going to bill you for something, and then I'm going to send you a bill in the mail, and then you have to pay for it in the mail. There are ways of embedding solutions directly in the software that is used in healthcare. The same thing with transportation, so logistics and payments. The same thing is happening in the music industry, where 85 % now of all earned money in music is coming through digital channels. So if the money is being earned digitally, you should be able to move that money digitally in an embedded fashion right back to the people who put it on the platform.

9:55So there are a lot of really interesting ways of embedding the fintech type functionality or banking technology around payments, around lending, around a variety of other of the key pillar products within banking, where you might not have to leave where you are or the thing you're doing and the product will just surface. So again, I think it's going to be a really interesting new distribution channel where if CAC ends up going to zero effectively, I mean, yes, you have sales and marketing and integration costs in order to get the product embedded within a partner. But if you have zero CAC to originate the customers, theoretically, that's a tax that the customer doesn't have to pay.

10:39And therefore, the product should theoretically be less expensive. Yeah, that's fascinating. I'm curious how you think about for these opportunities or even more broadly within fintech, because we're asking the same questions in AI, right? Like what is what's something that incumbent has a natural advantage for versus there's white space for startups? How do you think about that in fintech? Yeah. So a few years back, I wrote a piece called the Copernican Revolution on Banking. And it really was outlining one of the core premise of what banks do and kind of highlighting some of the strategic gaps in that entire framework.

11:23So if you think about the bank strategy, the bank strategy is to be all things to all people at all time through all channels, which, by the way, is not a strategy. A strategy is as much about the things you don't do as the things that you do do. And if you do everything, then you really aren't making strategic choices. And to make matters even worse, if you actually look at the product suite that's distributed by a typical bank, a typical bank has about 350 different products. And if you asked anyone, any bank, you know, executive or any customer of the bank, how many of those products do you think are world class at a typical bank?

12:04right they have 350 products that they're managing like the chances of them having the product you want at a world-class level is extraordinarily low right so the banks have become these 50 by 50 boxes on street corners which by the way is now being eroded because people have these things right which is a bank at your fingertips um where you could snap out individual products from a bank instead of you know have the entire bank in one place But, you know, a bank has become a distributor of about 350 average products. Some of them they might be a little better at, some they might be a little worse at.

12:42But it's like going to a giant department store and knowing that they'll have a solution. Yeah. It might not be the best solution, but they will have a solution. And in fact, the solution at one bank primarily looks like the solution at another bank. So when you say like, what opportunity is there for fintechs? It really starts with the ability to snap out individual products that customers might want and offer it to them at a world-class level. Because now, if this is your bank, is it that difficult for you to have two apps on your phone or three apps on your phone instead of one app on your phone?

13:21In fact, it might be easier for you to navigate to your investment account separately from your core bank account that basically is a ledger of how much money you have to pay your bills. So understanding the specific needs of customers and then creating bespoke products that actually solve whatever the problem is that they want or offer the product or service they want, there's a ton of room for fintechs to actually innovate. Yeah. We just had Balaji on a related podcast. And of course, he's made his famous million dollar Bitcoin bet and is very bearish on the financial health of these banks. But there's this broader conversation around people being, certainly startup founders, questioning what previously they didn't question, which was kind of the health of maybe the regional bank, the local bank, and maybe shifting to big banks.

14:18And there's some questions that, you know, did the government make the big banks sort of too big to fail, thus the safest banks? I'm curious from a, it's kind of a 101 macro sort of view that people are, or conversation that people are having on the banking. I'm curious as someone in fintech and someone who's very familiar with banks for decades now, how do you evaluate what's happening in banking right now from a fintech perspective? And more importantly, how that changes the game, if at all, for banking startups going forward? Yeah. Yeah, it's interesting because, you know, the people who know me or work with me or who have come across me recognize I'm a first principles thinker, you know, first and foremost.

14:59And the threads that I write on Twitter about breaking things down into atomic units and building them back up. And what I would say is, you know, there are a lot of bad takes on Twitter right now, actually annoying me quite a bit. And I apologize to everyone who hears me vent about that. But banking is actually a pretty complicated thing. And the same people who two years ago thought of themselves as epidemiologist experts are now banking experts, and they're commenting on banking. And everyone's allowed to have an opinion. It's just, unfortunately, a lot of them are uninformed. And some of them actually sound very smart, you know, and that makes it even worse.

15:34And so I've been writing a few primer threads that are trying to cut through the clutter. So if people are interested, you can look me up at FinTechJunkie on Twitter, and I'm really just trying to educate as much as I can. And I think people are losing sight of the purpose of banking, which is really about maturity transformation. The entire concept of a bank is for them to raise deposits from individuals that are planting money with them that do not have use of that money right now. And in return for lending that money to the bank, they're giving the bank permission to transform that money through maturity transformation from an asset into a liability that has a yield associated with it.

16:19It doesn't come free. You're actually giving the bank permission to take your deposits and do something with them. And, you know, the things that they can do with them are about, you know, having an investment portfolio that they can invest in very low risk, you know, securities, or they can run a loan book. And the primary purpose of a bank is to run a loan book. Right. So the idea that they would just take your money and plant it in an investment portfolio of various treasuries and mortgage backed securities, that's not the purpose of you lending money to a bank. you could invest in those things directly if you wanted to.

16:58So the concept of running that particular piece of how banks operate is if there are unused deposits, if the deposits aren't being offset against loans, you're trying to reduce the negative carry of what they pay in deposits. So they invest the money in typically shorter duration investments so that the negative drag is minimized. But the primary function of a bank is to transform your assets into long-term liabilities with yield through a loan book. So the primary function of a bank hasn't changed. And I think a lot of people who are questioning banking, they're wondering why anyone lends their money to a bank if it's really about this risky transformation into a loan book and an investment portfolio that could have interest rate risk associated with it.

17:53And these same people who are trying to question how the banking system works, and by the way, you have the right to question fractional banking. It is a difficult thing to understand and hard to wrap your head around how it works. But it serves a different purpose, which is allowing loans to be made, which is a critical part of any functioning, vibrant society. If banks didn't exist and didn't perform this maturity transformation well, people wouldn't have mortgages. People wouldn't have auto loans. If you like your credit card, well, then you actually love the fact that banks are pretty good at this maturity transformation.

18:36The fact that you have a house that you can be in today instead of having to save up for 15, 20, 30 years in order to raise the money so that you could buy it outright, it exists, the whole mortgage industry, because of the way banks function. So it's really important when people start questioning how banks operate and the riskiness of them, they have to understand the core premise behind what banks do. With that said, is there room for improvement and where does fintech fit in? The answer is yes and yes, like fintech fits in very nicely. Fintech is really about new methods of distributing products, new methods of applying for products, new ways of kinking the risk curve on products, new design of products, new form and fashion of products.

19:30But there's plenty of room for fintech to take technology and apply it to the pillars of banking. And when I think about the core pillars of banking, I mentioned a few of them in the core functions of what banks do. But if you think more broadly about financial institutions, they do five things. They store money, right? Storage of money is deposits. They move money. Moving money is payments. They lend money, which is lending business. They help you invest money, which is investments and securities. And then they transform risk, right? So they offset risk. And that's really insurance, right? So, you know, these are the things that financial institutions do.

20:19And there's room in every single one of them, you know, for fintech to take technology and new forms and fashions and apply it. So I'm still extraordinarily bullish, especially if you start looking internationally, not just domestically. You know, if you ask yourself, are we in chapter two or chapter eight of FinTech? It's actually different depending on where you look around the world. You know, if you're looking at Africa as an example, they might be in the preamble, right? They might not even be in the first chapter of a book where it's about inclusion. It's about offering products for the first time to pieces of the population.

20:58And if you look in the U.S., it could be about reduction of friction, right? It could be about embedding the products in a more seamless way so that it's easier for people to procure the product and use the product. So, again, I'm still very bullish on fintech as a whole, but had to do that little soapbox, I would say, on, you know, do a little bit of research on what banks do, you know, before you try to blow it up and recreate it. Hey, we'll continue our interview in a moment after a word from our sponsors. I'm curious how you think about neobanks in particular, and if how you're thinking on them has evolved over the years, if at all, perhaps, or has it kind of played out how you expected it to play?

21:48You had a threat on it a few years ago. Why don't you talk a little bit about neobanks? Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because neobanks aren't all the same thing, right? So it is a category of innovation. You can call it a corner of the ecosystem in FinTech that basically says that you do not need to launch a full-service bank in the way a full-service bank has historically been launched. I mean, that really is what a neobank is. They might or might not have a bank charter. Some of them do. Some of them don't. They might have a broad suite of products. Some do. some don't. So it's really about using a digital disruption and completely different distribution of the product and service that does not rely on launching them the way that a traditional bank would be launched.

22:44And one of the things I would ask you to run a thought exercise, or anyone who's asking about neobanks, is if you actually look at the top 10 or top 20 banks in the United States today, right? 100 % of them are deposit-taking institutions with branches, right? Now, what is the trend on use of the branch, right? Like, it's only heading in one direction. Every time a new technology is introduced, the need to actually go and have, you know, stand in line and actually talk to a teller is reduced. You know, you can look at some of the big innovations over for the past couple of decades, and you see what they've done to branches, right?

23:27The advent of the ATM machine, right? I mean, think about what that did to branches. Online account servicing, what did that do to branches? Remote deposit capture, what did that do to bank use? You know, and even things like Venmo or Zelle with peer-to-peer transfers, like what did that do to the use of banks? So the use of a branch is very different than it was in the past. And I would claim that it's almost a narrative violation that 10 years or 20 years from now make up whatever duration you care about. It's a narrative violation that 100 % of the top banks in any country are going to be branch-based banks.

24:17right so the concept of neo-banking is saying look the way a traditional bank was launched was to get a charter and have your own software and technology and people and you would buy 50 by 50 boxes on street corners and you would have people working them like a retail shop and you would have products that you would distribute and run you know through the software in the central office, that isn't necessarily the only way to build a bank. So we've invested in a number of neobanks. Probably the most, I would say most mature of all of the neobanks we invested in is now a public company called NewBank, which has become a dominant bank in Latin America.

25:02And you can actually look at their growth rate and the number of customers they have, the NPS scores, et cetera, et cetera. And it is not like a traditional bank. It is doing extraordinarily well and is designed with technology at its core. In fact, you can't even have a new bank account if you don't have a smartphone and download their app. We have a couple other neobanks in India, Jupiter and OneCard. In the US, we have a few with Curran and Albert. So it's a theme that we find very interesting that I think is very misunderstood because everyone is lumping all of these things together as if they're the same thing.

25:42But it's more about the concept that banking services could be offered without the need for the traditional method of getting them up off the ground, which would include branches. Yeah. Yeah. Extending the idea on emerging markets, the question of emerging markets, I'm curious, you mentioned Africa might be in chapter two, similar country might be in chapter five, chapter eight. Are those chapters for different countries going to look pretty similar? And thus, you could take a model that worked in one country and then just keep applying it one by one? Or Or do they speed run a little bit or look different?

26:25So we are a global fintech firm. And part of the reason for that is we've seen what this Connect the Dots exercise looks like. Again, once you've proven the art of the possible, people start looking at it and saying, wow, now what's possible where I am? Right. And, you know, you can't just pick up the playbook from one country and move it to another and execute it. And, you know, you speed run all of the mistakes and all of the positives of, you know, what that model has been able to create. You have to understand the nuances of the geography you're in, the infrastructure, how consumers or businesses behave in that area.

27:06There are differences. And if you get them wrong, it doesn't work at all. Right. So you have to be very careful. It's not like if 80 percent apply, you get 80 percent right. Like it just doesn't work. So understanding the playbook of companies that have succeeded, it's a great primer. It's a great thought exercise. There are experts that can help teach you things that will be valuable in every geography. But again, without the nuance of the country, you will get it wrong. Yeah, that makes sense. you mentioned that you started qed in 2008 and you were one of the earlier players so for most of your era and most of you know everyone else's or all of everyone else's era it's been kind of a certain macro environment uh you know low interest rates qe macro environment that is is different from what we've seen last last couple years or or most recently and and one thing you've been writing a bit about is how investing, just venture capital in general, is different and how building a fintech is different.

28:22So I want you to trace both. You could start either in investing or in building. What's different and why does that matter? What are the implications for investing and building now? It's interesting because this environment that we've been in has been a bit dizzy for anyone who is a traditional operator or business builder. And I come from having built, I was one of the people, I mean, it took an entire team of tens of thousands of people, but I was one of the early guard that helped build Capital One and operated many different business units and launched them from the ground up and turned them into some significantly large units within the bank.

29:05And kind of that core operator blood in me looked at the environment that we were in. And for years, I've been writing about being confused, about back-to-back rounds happening with nothing being de-risked on business and valuations doubling and money pouring into companies. And it was very, very dizzying for people who think more like Charlie Munger than they do like Marc Andreessen. And by the way, I'm in the Charlie Munger camp, which makes me a grump. The environment was very dizzying because the concept of venture capital is about having this magical, mystical problem statement, solution statement that you believe your solution statement is going to be the foundation for building an incredible business for a problem that people find profound.

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29:59So you start with this problem statement and solution statement, but that solution statement needs to lead to a financial statement. And the financial statement is basically saying, let me explain the levers on the business and let me put assumptions in that if they were to come true, I build this magical, mystical business that really is a profit machine. The goal of business is to make money. I know people don't like to hear that, but that is the goal of business. the only type of sustainable business is one with free cash flow everything else all you're doing is solving a problem and passing investor dollars back to the user of your product and you're subsidizing it but you know the concept of business is to have this magical mystical spreadsheet that over time you refine your assumptions and eventually if you're right You build this incredible cash machine.

30:55And venture capital was really meant to take those assumptions and put a learning agenda in place and turn them over one at a time. And founders are supposed to be asset allocators. As a CEO, you are an asset allocator. You are taking people and you are taking money. And you are actually applying them against hypotheses that you have or core assumptions that you have about how the business should work. and you're either creating proof or you're creating anti-proof, you know, with the money and the people that you're deploying. And if you have proof, it means that you're on track. And if you have anti-proof, it means that you're not on track and you have to fix the business, right?

31:38So like the concept of venture capital was about turning over cards one at a time and saying, this is a critical assumption. How do I learn whether I'm right or wrong? And if I'm right, I can put with a lot more confidence a number in that spreadsheet that's a good number. And then I can go back to the market and say, now I've earned the right to raise some more capital so I can turn over another card because I have proof. I've de-risked the business to some level. Then I raise more capital, I turn over another card or two cards, and I look. And if I have more proof, I'm actually building a business that turns into this wonderful cash machine.

32:20The problem with cheap and abundant money is the discipline just disappeared. So instead of having a learning agenda, instead of turning over cards one at a time, founders were falling in love with their solution, not with the problem. They were assuming that it was correct. And they were capitalizing the business and attacking it as if they were correct. And if they were getting anti-evidence, it didn't matter because they could raise more capital and just keep going on the hope and prayer and promises and the ability to tell a narrative about why the business is going to be a great business.

33:01And in fact, instead of staging ambition, which is about turning over cards one at a time, they would do everything at once. right they would try to turn over all the cards at the same time and it would be sloppy and you'd waste a lot of money and you'd have asterisks next to everything because you know you would make mistakes along the way and say no just give me more money i can fix these things you know i'm trying to build the biggest business as fast as i can you know so you would expect that it's going to be a bit sloppy so to me it was i keep using the word dizzying because is I would try to help businesses.

33:37I mean, our brand at QED is to be the best advice that our companies can get bar none. And we would try to give advice to our companies. And all of a sudden, massive amounts of money would pour in at valuations. And they would hire lots of people and try to turn over all of the cards at the same time. And it's hard to give advice, good advice in that environment. It's hard to maintain discipline in that environment. I wrote a thread saying my description of the past few years leading up to now is that Darwin went on vacation, but he's finally returned. And with money drying up and not being abundant, not being cheap, Darwin actually gets to tell you whether the market is slapping you in the face or the market is telling you you're on track.

34:22If you have anti-evidence or anti-proof, you're not going to be able to raise more money until you fix it. and you're going to have to fix it with the money you've already raised. So what I think this is going to lead to, and you're seeing it happening right now, is that businesses are going to be much more disciplined about asset allocation, about the people they hire, the money they spend, because now they have to actually stare at, what am I learning for this money? How much can I learn how quickly for how much money? That is a critical, critical question to ask when you're building a startup.

34:59And you can't be basically capitalized to perfection where everything has to go right for you to get the results that you need to raise capital. So adding buffer, being disciplined, doing fewer things, but doing those things well, all important. The other thing that's going to emerge is that it's going to be critical for businesses to recognize that the purpose of business is hopefully to make money at the lowest level of scale possible. And this is like a foreign concept to a lot of venture capitalists and founders who only know the environment we've been in. But the concept is if you can make money at a low level of scale, you can invest your free cash flow and doing bigger things.

35:45And in fact, you now have optionality because with profitability means you have the rest of the market to attack and create operating margins that are profitable. right and if you can deliver that profit back to investors or back to the business and reinvest it it means that you become incredibly capital efficient so i i think businesses are going to learn how to make money at lower levels of scale i think act two and act three businesses are going to be unfundable where you know they define it as act one is make customer happy scale customer act two figure out how to make money like those businesses are gone very hard to fund in this environment.

36:26You know, the path to profitability is going to be very important. And I think founders are going to do well if and only if they're good asset allocators. And not blitzscalers in this environment. Blitzscaling was a moment in time? No, I mean, no disrespect to the book. I mean, it's an interesting book, but I think it defines a particular point in time when capital is abundant in a very particular class of company that requires a massive amount of scale or the ability to unseat incumbents through being relevant in an ecosystem with speed. And look, I mean, there are businesses where blitzscaling is probably the right answer.

37:14Let's call that 1%. Then there are 99 % of the businesses that really need to build themselves in a disciplined way. where blitzscaling is not the answer. So I think the book has been just misused and misinterpreted given the capital that was available. It's interesting because a lot of us were able to convince ourselves that the years of excess were maybe just an evolution where maybe the tools had gotten better, the founders had gotten better, There are more people in tech and maybe this was sustainable. Like maybe this was, hey, the exits are getting bigger. The outcomes are bigger. And maybe the valuations just made sense because over time, maybe that's how it should work.

38:05Yeah. So let's unpack that a little bit because some of what you said is 100 % true, right? So the ability to get from zero to one to actually launch a product is now nearly guaranteed. If you have the right team, like, I mean, there are bad teams and they fight and don't have the ability to ship code and everything lives in code now. But the number of quality engineers that have now worked at a startup or been trained in these modern coding languages that enable you to ship code quickly and high quality, the number of engineers is through the roof. I don't know whether it's 20x or 50x or 100x what it was at the beginning of this cycle, but it's an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude bigger.

38:55I mean, I remember when the smartphones were really just a new thing and some of the companies that we were talking to, it was a crazy idea to launch a mobile app. And it required hiring people with very specialized skills who are on the forefront of doing this thing. Well, that's not true anymore. Like there are lots of people who actually know how to launch apps on phones and you would expect to be able to do it when in the past we expected to not be able to do it. Right. Right. So the ability to get from zero to one, I think, has improved massively. The ability to ship code with only a few engineers has increased exponentially.

39:38you're seeing what's happening now with AI and the ability for AI to actually reduce the cost of creating your base code, creating websites, creating logos, right? I mean, anytime that you can replace carbon-based units, i.e. people, with silicon-based units, i.e. code, like you're reducing the cost of launching anything. And if you think about a, you know, a chat GPT, you know, query, it might cost 20 cents of compute time. And if that creates logos or images or code that could take a human being, a carbon-based unit, an hour or two hours to do, that person actually costs somewhere between$1 and$2 a minute.

40:25So you've replaced$100 to$200 worth of people time with 20 cents of compute. Or maybe you have to run the query four or five times in order to, you know, get something that you can actually use. So a dollar worth of compute time to replace 100 or$200 worth of people time. So all of these things, I think, are going to make it, you know, a truism that it is cheaper, easier, with a higher success rate to get from zero to one. So the base of the pyramid has changed. But I think the, this particular cycle has not created the discipline to create companies that are giant cash flow machines that are durable with business models that can withstand cycles.

41:11There are some, there are some amazing companies that have come out of this cycle, but by and large, a lot of the companies aren't as durable as you would expect. because if you really want the outcome of a venture-backed company to become a real company, like, I mean, you can define that in any way you want, but around 20 years from now, 30 years from now, 50 years from now, right, it needs to be durable, needs to be profitable. And I think that's what this next cycle is going to prove, you know, that the venture community can launch businesses that qualify for being real businesses. It was interesting.

41:50I remember you did a podcast with Keith for boy and, um, I can't remember who, uh, who hosted it. Um, and, um, Keith said something along the lines of, we we've come to terms with the fact that we're price takers now because the best entrepreneurs, you know, uh, have competitive term sheets. So it's Jared Hecht that actually, uh, was the host of the podcast. It was called 80 % of the way to Mars. And then we did a follow-up called 90 % of the way to Mars. And it was all about price discipline in a world where it didn't seem like there was any price discipline. Like I found it actually a pretty interesting podcast.

42:28And, you know, Keith's take on it was, you know, in a world where capital is abundant and inexpensive and flowing freely, and you have a lot of new players, I call them tourists because now they're gone. But they were coming into the venture space with speed and with huge sums of capital. With all of these changes, Keith was saying discipline was about picking the companies that you wanted to invest in that could become generational companies. But price is what the market would ask in order to clear the deal. So I mostly agree with that. During this period, I think there are a lot of other ways of winning deals than just price.

43:13But you're not going to win a deal at one-tenth the price of someone else. So when a market is setting price, the biggest decision you have to make is the distribution of outcomes if this is my entry price. Is the distribution of outcomes meeting or exceeding my threshold for return expectation based on the risk that I'm taking? So the math had changed quite considerably. And the math actually worked if you believed we were going to be in that environment forever. The problem is when you're investing in companies, it's a seven to 10 year journey and sometimes longer, you know, to build them up into something that compounds over time to become this giant profit machine that you eventually can take public or sell.

44:05So it's so hard to project out seven to 10 years in the future, the environment that you're in. And we've seen what happened. right the environment we're in right now is not the environment that people were assuming it was going to be when they're investing at peak valuations right and the exercise I ask people to go through when they don't understand why stocks correct when interest rates go up you know you can take any public company you can take their forward projections and just apply different discount rates to their future earnings and if you apply different discount rates to their future earnings, which would be the equivalent of a rising interest rate where the cost of capital goes up.

44:46Very easy to see how valuations get punished by 50%, 60%, 70 % with the rate increases that we've seen. So it's literally a math exercise. And then it can be compounded by the rate increases actually punishing the economy and a variety of other things that are second order effects. But the environment we're in is not the environment that people assumed when they were investing. So not a surprise we're seeing a lot of markdowns. Not a surprise we're seeing valuations correct. Not a surprise there's a ripple effect from the public markets into late stage investing into mid-stage investing. And it's just starting to hit into the early stage investing.

45:26But it has to. It has to ripple all the way through. And I think the last place it will correct is in kind of pre-seed and angel investing, where there still seems to be some denial about what's actually happened and what the environment is that we're in. But I think that's going to correct as well. And if you had to steel man, you know, like the Tiger Global stance, for example, or strategy and how they must be, you know, reflecting on it kind of years later, like, what do you think was the strongest version of their thesis of why that strategy could have made sense? So every time I hear steel man, I feel like I'm channeling Chamath.

46:09I can't do. I cannot do it. But if I had to steel man the argument, the concept that venture capital was investing in disruptive technologies that by and large were attacking incumbents that were public incumbents with these, again, these huge profit machines. and that it is easier to create a company with a blank page, blank technology stack, blank idea, than to refactor an existing business with new technology. So if you start with that premise, you believe that the concept of venture capital is going to produce enough winners that market share is going to move from the public markets into the private markets and then eventually back from the private markets into the public markets when the companies get big.

47:06But the concept is that you're going to have these technological S-curves that are best adopted with a blank sheet of paper than it is to refactor an incumbent's business model. So you have to believe that in order to believe that market share is going to flow So first to the startups and then back into the public markets. The second thing is, if you believe that there are going to be enough winners in the venture space, the concept of indexing against the scaling greatest companies that are being built isn't a dumb strategy, right? Like there's more area under the curve of value being created in the private markets than there was in the past.

47:56So if you could get the beta of the area under the curve, you would do quite well. In order to get the beta, they had to have free and cheap capital, which means overpaying, in order to win a position at the table. right but if you're overpaying you're not now getting data right you're now eroding beta because you're overpaying for you know your positions within the ecosystem but in order to combat that they really went after what i would call a qualified beta strategy which to me is almost like putting a morning star rating on every single company and then saying i'm only going to invest in the four and five star you know companies so what they did is they found the best companies, the ones that were growing the fastest, the ones that had the tier one investors who they could trust had better track records than the norm.

48:54And they would throw turn sheets out at the companies and say, I'm going to win most of them by overpaying, but because I'm investing in the four and five star rated companies, it will all balance out at the end and I will end up with the beta of the venture community. So that would be my steel man argument for at least the strategy and what they were trying to accomplish. I think that's a great overview. I want to, gearing towards closing here, I also want us to reflect a little bit on crypto. You went down the rabbit hole over the pandemic on NFTs, on DeFi, Web3, and it's great threads about it.

49:33I'm curious, maybe you could briefly summarize what got you so excited and maybe reflect on how should we think about the space you know a few years later so it's important to understand the history of why i got involved and when i got involved which won't take me long to explain but i think it's important um so i was introduced to crypto many many years ago when i was a high stakes poker player and on the high stakes online poker player. And the government was in the process of making it very difficult to illegal to get money on and off the poker sites. They were enacting the Bank Wire Act of 1961 to make getting money on and off very difficult.

50:21And a bunch of the poker players said, well, you can get your money on and off through this thing called Bitcoin. And I said, well, aren't you really going around government regulations? And they said, well, yes, you know, that's the purpose of Bitcoin is to go around government regulations, right? They're trying to shut you out of something that you want to do. So why would you let them do that? Now, you have to put in perspective that I was a fintech investor at the time, right? Basically working within the banking ecosystem to launch businesses that were compliant. So my introduction to Bitcoin was through the lens of people that were using it for a very specific purpose, which, by the way, is very different.

51:01than if you were in Latin America at the time or you were in some other country and you were worried about the devaluation of your currency, right? So I, by and large, ignored Bitcoin and crypto at the beginning, saying, wow, I can't imagine buying something with the express purpose of going around government regulations or government intent. So the reason why I bring that up is I think people's introduction to crypto can color what they think about it. because this coloration made me lose sight of what this thing was and what it was evolving into for many years, because I had this one view in my head about what it was and what it could be used for.

51:42And it was, it was naive and it was what I would call very shallow, right? A shallow view of the possibilities. And we'd gotten very busy at QED and it's a very, very complicated thing. You can't understand it a little. You either understand it or you don't. And as it became more and more prominent, as it became more and more solidified in different ecosystems and different geographies, it kept coming up conversations more frequently with companies that we're looking at in companies in our portfolio. And our brand to our companies, as I mentioned, is to be the best advisors to them bar none. And they started asking questions that I felt we didn't have great answers for.

52:27And I remember talking to one of our CEOs at one of our CEO summits, and he said, you should learn this in public as a way of doing a service to the industry, as well as catching yourself up on something that's an emerging technology. If you think about crypto, So it's digital programmable money. Like that is fintech. It is financial and it is technology. And it's something that, you know, we did not have the expertise around. So I actually committed to him about 15, 16 months ago that I was going to learn in public. And he knew that I was a first principles thinker and would see it for what it was, not immediately go down the rabbit hole and become, you know, like a messy overnight or, basically come out of the rabbit hole and say, this is a bunch of crap.

53:17I would try to learn it and see it for what it was. So I've been on this journey. I think it's been incredibly interesting. I think it's not all good. It's not all bad. It is very complicated. So that is the truth. But I also think very few people actually understand it at the level that they claim they do. Now, I'm not claiming to be an expert at this point. I'm claiming to be intelligent enough to have learned enough to understand what it can do, what the technology is, where it's evolving to, the problem statements that it's trying to disrupt, the solution statements that it's trying to provide.

53:59What I'll say is over the past year and change, it's been very frustrating talking to a lot of crypto native founders, especially when they're trying to disrupt the banking ecosystem. Because a lot of them are just speed running the mistakes that banking has basically made over the past 200 years. And I would ask them questions about analogs that I knew, like things that I knew had happened in the banking ecosystem or the reason why banks are operating the way that they operate today. And it was, I'll call it a near complete ignorance, and ignorance not in a bad way, just lack of knowledge about why the banking ecosystem works the way it does.

54:43And I would have conversations with founders about maturity transformation and about asset liability matching and counterparty risk. And it was like I was speaking a completely foreign language to them. And at the beginning of my journey, I didn't understand the language they were speaking. So I felt like it was very difficult. And part of the reason why we weren't conversing well is because I didn't speak their language. Well, now I can speak their language. And for the past couple of months, a lot of the things that have been happening were the things that I had been talking to them about for a very long time.

55:19right so you talk about you know a crypto protocol creating their own token right their own currency and i would you know draw analogs to the wildcat banking era of the 1830s where banks basically printed their own currency and when there was a bank run the currency went to zero because no one else would take the currency and you know you needed a reserve currency in order to make that work and you know people look at the ftp token and say wait that's very similar to what you're talking about. And we would talk about the safety nets of FDIC insurance and what happens when people are taking money out of a protocol or a liquidity pool, or in the case of a bank, out of a ledger, out of a bank account.

56:02And there really are more similarities than people think. It's just completely different language. So I think the crypto world is going to gain a lot of appreciation for banking. And I think the banking world has a lot to learn from crypto about some of the new technologies that really can take friction out of the system. So like the concept of a single immutable ledger with good money on it at all times that doesn't need a bank settlement process, and all you need are on-ramp and off-ramps in order to get it into a native currency. That's actually a really interesting thing, given how difficult it is for international money settlement.

56:44And guess what I just described? It's a stable coin. So there are technologies like that that I think are extraordinarily interesting. But a lot of what's happening in DeFi is a lot of crypto people with hammers looking for nails, and they're trying to reinvent things that actually, by and large, work. And they're not putting the safety nets in place, and they're not learning from history. They're just using a new technology to offer something that's already been offered. Now, with that said, I think there are other technologies within crypto that are extraordinarily interesting, like NFTs. And when I talk about NFTs, people immediately jump to, you know, JPEGs of monkeys and such.

57:25And I am involved, by the way, in some of those projects. I find them incredibly fun. Quirkies is one. KiloBears is another. Menji is another. Like, there are projects that I find very interesting and fun. But when I talk about NFTs, it's really the technology layer, which is a container for metadata, right? That's what an NFT is. It's a container for metadata. And if you combine that with the self-custodian nature of wallets and you put the two together, some really interesting things can get created. Finally, we have a way for people to own their own data. Finally, we have a way for people to own their own things, trade their own ownership.

58:12And I think that we're going to see some interesting new business models get created, you know, as a result of this NFT technology. I think there is an example I used on Cartoon Avatar. So I was on their podcast talking about it, where I said, to me, it's a narrative violation that someone can graduate from college. and there's no way that you have of actually proving that you went to that school right the certificate they give you no one would believe is actually proof it's a piece of paper and you could recreate that piece of paper very easily so in order to prove it an oracle i.e the university ends up taking data and publishes it to a centralized database called the national student clearinghouse that you don't have access to about your own data.

59:01And if you want to prove to anyone that you went to that university and took the classes you took and got the grades that you got, you have to pay that central database and get permissions with a lot of friction to basically prove something about yourself. The concept of an NFT and self-custodianship means that that same oracle, the university, could actually drop a soulbound token into your wallet with all of that information in it, right? So that you have at your disposal, your fingertips, your ability to give permissions and access information about something about yourself, right? That you went to a university, that you went to certain classes at certain times, and you earned certain grades and eventually got a certain degree.

59:47So I think there's going to be new forms and fashions of data ownership and ownership of things, ownership of money that I think the new technologies are going to be fantastic containers for. To extend that a little bit further, it is interesting to think about with crypto, what are some of the ways in which it will recreate the financial system, but in a decentralized way and or some elements of the financial system and what are some of the kind of uh new like what will look similar to the current financial system and what will be totally new and and which rules should be broken almost do you have a framework like some people say that maybe the benefits defy is really it's just or just some of the crypto stuff in general just regulatory arbitrage based on some of these antiquated laws that were you know created maybe 100 years ago and maybe the benefit is it's a workaround to kind of recreate the laws for internet era age where some people say no actually the technology is fundamental breakthrough and will enable new you know use cases that um didn't exist prior yeah how do you think about some of these questions so there is an ethos and a zeitgeist around crypto that's very hard to separate from the attitudes that people have about what the end state is going to look like and how we're going to get there.

1:01:09So there's a diehard libertarian element to some of the OGs in the crypto space. Like you can't ignore that, right? These are people who basically are putting their fists in the air and saying the global financial crisis is bad. Look at all the bad things when you centralize power and look at all the bad things that can happen when you have a fractional reserve system of money that gets out of control. And the idea behind Bitcoin and some of the early tokens, it really was a statement about disbelief in the current banking system in a way of creating a new, in some ways, a new global reserve currency that people could believe in that was not controlled by the powers that be.

1:01:56So if that's where your starting point is, you're going to have a very different view of its purpose than if you're looking at it as a technology right now i look at it as a technology right so i think it's important to understand like which perspective i had apologies i'm moving away from the sun um but you know i come from a a core premise that you have problem statements and you have solution statements It's not about a technology for technology's sake. You have to be solving a problem. And if you're not solving a problem, then you're building an artificial business, right? It's a manufactured problem, and therefore you have a manufactured business, which doesn't mean it won't succeed.

1:02:42It means that it's probably going to be tiny, right? It's probably going to be a niche business unless you're solving a real problem. So from a technology standpoint, I do believe that blockchain technology with all of the promises of having provenance and understanding how immutability matters, the ability to have certainty of data and uptime on these chains at all times. Like, there's something that's really interesting about the technology, but it's not a perfect technology. It is not a technology that is the technology that should be used for every problem. Right. In the same way, tokenomics and tokens themselves, different chains, like they need to exist to solve problems.

1:03:32And when I think about Ethereum, just as an example, which really is smart contracts and digital programmable money, and there's a lot of interesting things that are in there, there are specific types of problems for which it's a very good solution. But again, you've got to think about it as a technology. I shouldn't say you have to. I think about it as a technology because I'm not coming at it from a zeitgeist or an ethos about wanting to overturn an entire system. So that's a helpful perspective. To zoom out a bit and return back to our FinTech hearing towards closing here, I sent another investor at a great firm, a lending company that we invested in once.

1:04:16And one thing that she said back was, I don't do lending companies because I'm uncomfortable with a certain kind of macro risk. They're great in some environments, not great in other environments. And putting aside that answer, I'm just curious how you think about what kind of macro risk you're comfortable taking or not taking for some companies that only really make sense in certain environments. Yeah. So any healthy business is a durable business. And if you actually think about economic cycles, if you think about credit cycles, if you think about, I mean, fill in the blank, there's so many different types of cycles.

1:05:00There are very few businesses that are just immune. If you think they're immune, you haven't looked deep enough. Right. So you can look at what's happening in SaaS companies now. So, I mean, talk about the class of companies that venture capitalists love to invest in, vertical SaaS companies. Like if we're up to the VC community, everything would be a vertical SaaS company. Exactly. 98 % logo retention, 120 % revenue retention, and you invest in print money, right? Like that's what they want. But the reality is even vertical SaaS companies are going through a cycle right now. Yep. So if you're trying to build durable companies, you're not building them for tomorrow.

1:05:45Right? you're building them to be around 20 and 30 and 50 years from now. So it means that you have to build into the model enough flexibility that you have degrees of freedom to manage through cycles. Now, I come from a very cyclical world, right? Banking and, in fact, credit within banking, where every, you know, call it seven to 10 years, there's some credit disruption, some economic disruption that you've got to rethink your credit policy and change your approved decline in pricing decisions pretty radically. So I'm used to kind of weathering these up and down cycles. And there is some truth to it.

1:06:25Part of the art of a startup is you have to get far enough fast enough to attract the next amount of capital so that you can continue de-risking the business. And if you're coming up on a new cycle, you have to be very careful about when you invest because you might be investing naked, where you're the only investor for the company. when the cycle starts shifting. So again, there are good times and bad times to start building businesses, but you have to be resilient to cycles when you hit your destination. You just have to be. Yeah, 100%. And maybe wrapping on this upcoming question, which is a good segue too, is like, I'm curious if you have kind of a request for startups within FinTech.

1:07:11You can be alluded to certain things you're excited about earlier in terms of like payments applied to specific domains. But if you could, if hundreds of people, we're listening, a thousand people listening to this conversation, wanting to pursue something in fintech, exploring different sub areas, look for white space, or if you yourself had to go pursue a, go start a company in the space and you had any sort of set of skills that you'd want, where would you point people? Or what's your request for startups? Where do you want to see people sort of do some rabbit holes in? Yeah, I mean, it's interesting.

1:07:46We have over 20 investment professionals around the globe now. Each one of them has somewhere between two and four major investment theses that they're chasing. So you can kind of multiply all that out and realize that fintech is actually a pretty big thing. So hard to point to just one thing. I think all of the pillars of banking and financial technology, like very, very interesting right now. We are a bit promiscuous. Like if it is in or touches fintech, we will take a look at it. But I would just encourage people to go beyond what v1.0 of fintech was. So if I had to answer the question, you know, v1.0 of fintech and insure tech was really about UX, UI and APIs.

1:08:38It was slick front ends, reducing the friction to application processes. And that's interesting. And it kind of proved the art of the possible of how you could disrupt some of the incumbents by building something that people just like to interact with. That's now table stakes. So if your business model is just a nice little layer on top of something in the back end, it's going to be much harder to build a big, durable business. than if you're fundamentally recreating the manufacturing process of the product itself. That is a helpful note to end on. Frank, this has been a great podcast. I must say that for anyone looking to go deeper on some of these topics or just FinTech in general, your threads are a must and you've aggregated them helpfully on your website.

1:09:29And then also lucky to be on a few cap tables with you guys at QED. and you guys are always the most favored investor. And so highly recommend any founders building something very ambitious to be working with QED or applying to work with them. Thank you so much, Frank, for sharing your learnings here on the podcast with us. Well, much appreciate the kind words and anytime. Awesome. Turpentine VC is a podcast from Turpentine, the network behind Moment of Zen and Econ 102. If you liked the episode, please leave a review in the Apple Store or rate us on Spotify. Thank you.

From the publisher

In this episode of Turpentine VC, Erik is joined by Frank Rotman, the founding partner of QED investors, a fintech-focused VC firm. Frank provides a nuanced analysis of investing in fintech and neo banks, offers his view of the larger macro environment, and maintains the need for discipline and resilience in business. This episode was recorded with Frank in 2023 but remains just as relevant today.

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(01:46) The Evolution and future of Fintech

(11:00) Incumbents vs Startups - locating the advantage?

(13:50) Bullish or bearish on banking

(20:30) Impact of fintech on different regions in the world 

(21:28) Sponsor: NetSuite | Brave

(30:01) Evolution of neobanks

(34:39) The Pitfalls of Abundant Capital

(36:18) The Importance of Discipline in Business

(36:21) The Return of Darwin: The Impact of Drying Capital

(46:00) The Impact of Excessive Valuations

(51:25) The Role of Crypto in the Financial World

(55:13) The Potential of NFTs and Crypto

(01:09:59) The Future of Fintech

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