Uncapped #48 | Tarek Mansour from Kalshi

20:42Would that fit the definition if people wanted to trade on that? Yeah, because it's happening anyway. It's happening anyway. They can bet. And they're trading against each other, right? And like, Like it would not be legal for us to, and we can talk about that if we had a position. So like if we cannot go and trade on that and then you just go say something, is that where you market manipulation? Is it illegal to bet on something where you see, you know, a bet playing out in the world, but you know the answer for sure? So it depends. And that's the whole kind of conversation we've been having around insider trading.

21:10And there's a whole long history here. But the line that, you know, so we're regulated financial market. We're regulated exchange and clearinghouse. And a lot of the rules we have are mimicked after the rules of the stock market. In the stock market, the line is drawn. It's like you cannot trade on what is material non-public information. And the way that that's defined is like, you have a piece of information that you acquired under certain rules, right? And one of those rules is that you cannot disclose it. So material non-public information is information you're not allowed to disclose. That like, if you own as an executive of Tesla and you went and said it to the press, you would get in trouble.

21:46You're not allowed to do it. And trading is a form of disclosure. That's the whole point for extra markets, right? Like, prediction markets are a way to disclose information. Like, when you trade, maybe you're not saying it on Twitter, but you're actually trading that information, and you're moving the price in a way to disclose the information. But, like, let's say this morning I saw, you know, a trade that was, well, Jack and Tark see each other today. And I'm like, I know the answer to that. So I'm going to make a big bet. Are you Jack or are you someone else? I'm me. Well, you have influence on that.

22:11You have direct control over that. Got it. So that wouldn't be inside trading. That would be manipulation. Yeah. So the majority of participants in grain futures are grain farmers, right? Like they, and the way that the price of grain futures is done, this is going to be a little surprising. Yeah. Can you guess, like, how do you determine the price of grain? How do you think we determine it? I don't know. How? You literally survey a bunch of the farmers are trading in the market. Wow. It's a little weird, right? Like it's like, they definitely have inside information then, like, right? Because they're the guys, they know what the price is.

22:40And it's interesting because the line there has been like, okay, inside trading is very hard to define grain futures. But what we're going to draw the line is, is you cannot put a position and then artificially manipulate the underlying price. You cannot move the prices of the, like you cannot move the event or the underlying in a way that will kind of help you profit. And so it's the same thing here. It's like, if you have direct control over an event, if you're a politician that was looking to pass a bill, you take a position, then you tank the bill or you try to pass it even harder, that's illegal.

23:09Yeah. And that's ban on calcium. I could see that could get a little gray though. Like, let's say you were, let's say back to the, of us talking on the podcast today. Let's say you're a friend of mine and you knew that we were, you knew it was happening. You don't really have control over it, but you could be like, you know. It's the same as the stock market. Is the cousin sort of responsible? And if someone on the street heard an executive talk about some MNPI, are they allowed to trade it or not? And these lines have always been hard. So does this stuff come up a lot or is it not? Yeah, definitely.

23:37Because it's interesting. And look, this is a conversation that CalShield loan will not have all the responses to. And it's a conversation where having regulators and over time policymakers, but like, you know, my principles are kind of generally simple when it comes to this. It's like, I always go back to why is insider trading a ban in the stock market? You know, there are some people that argue, well, maybe we should let insider trading happen in the stock market because it would make the prices more accurate. Right. If you let it happen. Yeah, it feels like, I mean, my reaction to it is it feels unfair.

24:04Exactly. People got money for no reason other than they were told something and that shouldn't be a source of people generating money. Exactly. It's all about unfairness. It feels like there was no skill and no effort that went into. Yes. And it's actually even worse than that. There's a very practical implication, not just sort of a moral implication to this. The practical implication is that, well, if people believe the stock market is rigged, they stop trading. Yeah. Like the liquidity dries up. There's kind of this nice property of market. It was like markets that have a lot of insider trading in some ways are not going to exist.

24:34At some point, like at the limit, you'd be like, if I don't have insider information on a stock, why am I trading? Like I'm definitely the sucker. There's a mix, right? And so I think, no, you have to have information on something. And seeking information is very good. Doing research, like when, like, for example, you know, some of the, I don't know if you ever heard that, like, at the time, apparently Two Sigma used to like, I don't know if it's Two Sigma specifically, but like, these are like used satellite images of like the parking lot at Walmart. Yeah. To figure out how many cars are coming in.

25:00Yeah, probably even before that, people would just, you know, hire somebody to sit outside of Walmart. Just see what's the foot traffic. Exactly. That's information. That's just work. That's work. Yeah, that's work. Exactly. But I think there's a balance. But I think to me, insider information is, the way to define it is, information that you could not get access to would work if you're not an insider. That's right. Yeah. And I think the reason you should ban it and the rules that you have to build in the marketplace is like, how do we keep it fair? Yes. And it's very practical. If it's not fair, then people will stop participating.

25:26Yes. And this was a message I always say is like, there's something nice about insider trading, which is like, if the marketplace is really not fair, you can trust that people will just like stop doing it. They won't want to do it. And that's why we take this very seriously. Yeah, I have a topic I want to get your take on because I can tell that you're extremely thoughtful about fairness, the way it should work, what's the better future. I think one of the discomforts people have with like prediction markets is that they they look like gambling and some people who are not comfortable with them.

25:56It's like this new idea. And it looks like people just pulling their phone out and they're starting to do gambling. Yeah. And obviously, that is not at all what your sort of conception of it is. There's all sorts of function outside of it. But I'd be curious actually to start to hear sort of your steel man version of like, what's the way this goes wrong? Like, what's the version of it that is like the bad version? Yeah. What's the bad version of gambling that you were not comfortable with that you think crosses some line that you don't think is good? And, you know, this is obviously I think probably you and I share like a baseline value of libertarian and adults should be able to do what they want to do.

26:32obviously with some balance of like we shouldn't you know expose people to things that are you know short-term addicting that are long-term bad for them you know there's some balance here yeah where are you not happy look i'll tell you like i i'm a risk taker i'm a trader like i and i've never i don't consider myself having really gambled ever like when i trade and that that's you know i speculate there's like a lot of similarities of between this and and there's a lot of arguments i mean the argument i hear most about is like people like talk about ducks a lot like the it quacks like a duck. And like, you know, that's usually the argument of like, well, it looks like gambling.

27:06So maybe it is gambling. And it's interesting because the thing I always like say is like, that argument has been made about every single new type of financial market that has ever come to the US or really anywhere, right? Like the argument has been made about grain futures, like we just discussed. It's in some ways, you know, when we started with life insurance back in the day, you know, the headlines at the time were like, oh, this is like morally horrible. like you're gambling on people's lives. This is terrible. We should not have this at all. I mean, you know, now I think a lot of us would agree we should have great futures.

27:39We should have the stock market, which is, you know, has been, we should have life insurance. We should have all these different things. But I think there is a basic, like, yes, speculation has a flavor of, it looks sometimes like gambling, but it doesn't make it as such. And so I like this kind of frame of like, let's actually like play this out and how does it go wrong? In my opinion, the things that end up contributing to this bad perception in gambling is the incentive structure in the system. It's how is the system built and what are the incentives that are built into the system. And when you think about a gambling business model, it's a business model where the primary KPI, right?

28:18The thing that will not just predict your net income, will be pretty much equal to your net income is your customers' losses. If that's your business model and that's what your incentive is, what are you going to do? you're going to promote? Losses. Losses. Like what else are you going to do, right? If you do a great job at stopping losses, you're going to lose money. Yeah, more throughput, bigger rig. Yes. It's just the inevitable. And so what a lot of these businesses do is, you know, if you're sitting in a casino and you're making money, what do they do? Like the bodyguard comes and takes you aside and says, stop.

28:48If you're doing something informed, if you're doing something smart, if you're seeking information, the very point of financial markets, like you get blocked, you get banned, or at least limited. Well, part of that happens because they're trading against you. So in a casino, Blackjack, it's against the house. Yes. And so you winning is exactly me losing. Exactly. Online casino, all these models are like the counterparty is the house. Versus for you in a marketplace, you don't care who wins. I don't care. Yeah. And that's fundamentally different. So the way that it goes bad is like when the house is trading against its own customers, you are inevitably the algorithms.

29:21One thing that does persist though is theoretically, you don't care if on net, the two of them leave the day with more or less money between the two of them. Like you don't care that two people betting against each other. I'm neutral. You don't care. Yeah, exactly. If they both start with a hundred dollars, you're okay. If at the end of the day, one has 110 and one has 80, that's still okay. I actually, in some ways prefer if they're both at a hundred. Yeah. In some ways. I mean, because, but think of it as like, but to me is the incentive in the system because, okay. And going back to kind of how it goes bad, if you're the house, what are you going to do?

29:54You're going to figure out, you're going to build algorithms and you're going to, you know, whether it's physical algorithm, the casino, like casino has all these smart ways of figuring out who are the big losers in the, in the room. And then you're going to figure out how to get them hooked, get them to come back, get them to come back. Even they're, they're losing. They know that they're losing. You give them a suite, you give them all these different things, right? The lights more flashy. All of that. Like, you know, the waitress comes in with cocktail, right? Like all, all. And so that is where the unhealthy behaviors emerge because you have an algorithm that's just promoting unhealthy behaviors, right?

30:22And we've seen it in a bunch of other kind of like, even in the context of tech platforms, et cetera. What I like about it in free and open marketplace, and that applies to the stock market, it applies to crypto, it applies to options. There isn't that dynamic. That dynamic doesn't exist. What is my incentive as a company? My company, I take a small fee, a transaction fee, right? So what I want is volume. I want people to just trade more, right? And I'm actually incentivized. If I want people to trade more, is the things that I want the platform to be fair and perceived to be fair. I want the platform to be neutral, as neutral as possible.

30:55And I want it to be transparent, which is another key thing. All the trades are public. Everyone can see what they do. And I like this model significantly more because now, and when we think about going back, and where's our responsibility as a platform, I have a much better shot, like structurally, at creating healthy feedback loops into the product. Like if I, and we do this a lot, we have limits on like how much people do and how much they trade, et cetera. But it's not just something that we just say, like our business model is tied to it. If someone is doing too much excessive behavior and losing too fast, we as a business will not be hurt as much as the other types of business models if we tell this person, hey, maybe you should pause.

31:29Now, I don't know if it's our job to block this person. That's a different story. But we have all the incentives to say like, hey, maybe you should stop. Maybe you should like self-exclude. Maybe you should like put limits on you. Because again, they're not losing it to us. They're losing it to someone else. And that's not a positive thing for me if that's happening. And so that's what's exciting me. And, you know, and I hope over time, not just that CalShare, and CalShare spends a lot of time, like, thinking about customer protection in the context of, like, how do we limit unhealthy behaviors or excessive behaviors?

31:56And I hope that this gets applied to also all the other financial markets where, like, people, retail participation is going higher, like, where it's crypto options, all these different things. Let's say that what you were, that what people were trading was, like, just, like, stocks instead of, you know, the outcome of, you know, an election or something like that. In that world, even with a fee, you know, over 10 years of trading, like the stock tends to go up versus with, you know, an election, it's just to trade back and forth with a little fee. And so the outcome that you're producing is not incrementally more net worth over time.

32:27The outcome you're producing is better information and people being able to express their views. Yes. It does seem to me like it would be cool if you also had the other type of product where you were helping people. Like the investment type product. Yeah. Yeah. I think there's a difference between investing and trading. That's right. that has always been existent, right? Like, yes, the stock market is, look, I think holding a stock for five years, that's investing. Yeah. Now, if you trade a stock in and out over the next few days - You're going to get crushed by all the fees. That's trading. Yeah, not just fees also.

32:53It's like your directional view. It's not enough time. Yeah. Yeah, it's like you're trading. And that's a zero-sum game. And options are a zero-sum game. Crypto, in my opinion, we'll see over time, but like most of crypto trading, not if you hold Bitcoin for five years, that's investing, but if you're trading Bitcoin in and out, you're zero-sum. And so my mental model for this is like, yes, that's true. But it's interesting because we ask our customers, a lot of them, hey, like, do you trade, not invest? They're different. Do you trade, for example, S &P or do you trade traditional like options?

33:24And consistently, like nine out of 10 of our customers, their response is no. And the reason is I don't gamble. and like, wait, but you know, in people's mind, but like elections trading or betting, that sounds more like gambling than trading and options because that sounds financial, you know, but actually like if you ask people, it's like, well, I don't have a way to win. Right. I don't have an edge. Yes. There's no way for me to do it. Those markets are still efficient. They're efficient. The hedge funds have way more information than I do. There isn't a way for me to be truly informed. And if I put a lot more research, so the whole point is, but if you put a lot of research, of research, can you get better and can you win?

34:04And the reality is in a lot of traditional markets, the answer is no. Wall Street will always be main street. Wall Street will always be the average person. The beauty of what we're building, it's just not the case. The average person is winning more than Wall Street. Like our best inflation forecaster is not a Wall Street person. Well, I guess by definition, the average person is neutral with you because there's a buyer and seller of everything. But it's more about a point of like, there isn't that structural advantage that like Wall Street has in our markets. Yeah, I mean, what I would argue is they might be neutral with you and they're definitely going to be negative if they're going to try to trade against Citadel or something like that.

34:37Generally, yes. Yeah. And yes, our average user is neutral, but I'm talking more about like - The people who want to put in real work. Yes. People, if you put in real work and figure out how do people vote on bills or why, it's like, you know, back in the 2024 election, you know, the guy who put like a lot of money on Trump because he did the neighbor poll. Totally. It's amazing. That's the markets working exactly how they should, which is like they're rewarding someone going out there, doing the research and doing the truth seeking on behalf of society. Yeah. And then you get rewarded for it.

35:08Like you're doing a reward mechanism for someone to do research, which does not exist in a lot of the traditional markets. Yes. And that's why like when you talk to these people that are on CalSheet, the prediction market, you know, I don't know if you saw the New York Times article about the rise of the prediction market trader. Yeah. That class of people that are doing this as a full-time job. Yes. You know, they're excited about this because it's a way for them to get rewarded for all the things they are learning about the world. By the way, one of the things that I think is very interesting is whenever there's like a new financial product, there's all these emergent behaviors and properties.

35:37And like an example with yours is like, like insurance and hedging and things like that. Can you talk about like, like when I first learned about that, I was like, oh, that's surprising, but it makes sense with like a hurricane or something like that. It's getting used for those types of things too, right? Yes. And that's, I would say like the trajectory over time is like that is becoming an increasingly bigger part of the platform. Obviously we started with retail, like people, individuals, But now as we're getting into the institutional, that's becoming a bigger and bigger piece. But let me talk about retail and then let's talk about institutional.

36:03So, yeah, there's two functions of the market. One is what we call like price discovery, which is predicting all these events, right? And that's one of the benefits of prediction markets is you're giving people an incentive to do the price discovery, which is predict all these events. And that's working, right? I think a lot of people now at least understand increasingly more. I don't know if you saw the Fed paper that came out. You saw that? Yeah, it's cool though. Counting the rise of micro markets, right? And it was like the Fed itself is saying this is the best gauge we have on the economy.

36:28It's crazy. It's like amazing. And by the way, the people is not Wall Street again. It's Main Street. We've figured out how to build this community of people that are dispersed across America that like are making us smarter about the economy. It turns out that like if you ask like a big enough crowd of people, like how much does a cow, like a particular cow weigh, they get like really close. You know, that's how, that's the OG original prediction market. Yeah, it's pretty cool. That's how it started. It's like literally bringing it wisdom of the, like crowd wisdom. I mean, it's happened with the elections too, with like Trump and stuff like that.

36:52Yes. Where like everybody's like, no, Trump won't possibly win. And it's like, well, maybe. If you have an incentive to actually do the research, I think you may actually, you know, but, but so that's that. And you, and the second prong is hedging. And hedging is a little different from insurance. So insurance is usually regulated at the state level because it's also, there's a house. Right. So you go to an insurance company and they give you a price. Hedging is on the open market. So hedging is just like, I'm on a coast and I'm just going to bet that a hurricane is going to come knock my house over.

37:17But the key thing is it's an open and competitive market. You say, I want to buy X amount of something that protects me. and then people can like fill you at whatever price and they compete for that price. And we see this a lot, for example, in Florida, in the Keys, you know, insurance companies have pulled out because they don't know how to price hurricane risk anymore. It's like really expensive. And so we get like calls. As of when? It's been like two years, three years. Like where we get a lot of calls around hurricane season where people are like, hey, I want to buy X amount of hurricane hitting this town.

37:47Yeah. I don't want to deal with the insurance process. Oftentimes they don't pay me back. There's deductibles. There's all this. I just want, if the hurricane hits the town, I get paid. And that's a hedge. Yes. And that's one, like, you know, Chris, like really clear sort of use case that we've seen. The other one is like at the time with Biden and the forgiveness market, a lot of like students were hedging, like smoothing out their student loans. They were super worried about having to pay back. But the interesting thing about division long term is like, as we're sort of, I mean, now we're seeing, you know, really like we're seeing a massive acceleration in institutional adoption of prediction markets and Calci.

38:21is think about it this way. Like you own S &P as an institution, but you're really worried about an upcoming election. You're really worried about the midterms, one way or the other. If the Republicans win or Democrats win, you think it's going to impact your portfolio in a certain way. Today, you don't have any options. You may just have to sell your position before the event happened if you want to protect yourself. With prediction markets, you can actually put the hedge. So if you're worried about, for example, Republicans winning or Democrats winning, you can buy Republicans or Democrats if you think that's going to impact your portfolio, your hedge is going to basically complement for that.

38:53So you don't have to sell your position anymore. You can't put on the hedge. And that's, I think, where the next generation is, like AI, COVID, elections, bills passing, regulatory changes, all these different things can become just insurable risks. And what CalShare has provided for that is like the layer one of being able to, you know, kind of think about those risks, just pricing them. Like any of these risks now, we can put it on the platform. We have this platform. we basically have all the top super forecasters on the planet that will give you the price. Yeah. Like you send this thing to the system and it'll come back and spit out.

39:25Hey, well, Citrini scenario happens. I don't know if you read that. Have you seen the research report from Citrini? Oh, Citrini, yes. Yeah, yeah. We put it on Calci and like, you know, it started at 11%. Now it's at 33%. This thing has gone up. Yeah. But it's amazing because you have a market that you can probe now instead of like listening to different pundits and Twitter and people are battling on Twitter. And then based on that, if you believe that, then you can go do other trades against that. You can either use that to hedge if you're worried about that impacting your portfolio. Or the interesting thing is like pricing this thing can enable us as a society to make the prices of all of our traditional assets better.

39:58Now, there is this theory about infinite markets. Have you ever heard about that? No. So this idea that like, you know, as society gets increasingly more complex, the vector, like the number of dimensions that matter for asset prices increases. Right. Like 100 years ago, you maybe needed to understand supply and demand and industrial, like in labor and, you know, maybe the agricultural economy in the US. Now you have to understand those things. We also have to understand what's happening in Iran and what's happening in COVID, AI and what it's going to do, how technology is rapidly progressing, cyber, all these different, like society is just getting increasingly more complicated and more interconnected.

40:34So everything impacts everything. The interesting thing is like, as this vector, as the number of dimension increases, our pricing of traditional assets, like the market, like the S &P or home price, et cetera, the entropy there goes up. Like we have less and less information, like we have less and less of the relevant information. So you have to actually over time price all these different dimensions so that you can then price the S &P more accurately. And like one of those dimensions, for example, is the Citrine Report, like what will happen with AI will happen with COVID. And that idea of infinite markets is very tied to prediction markets because prediction markets fill that gap.

41:05prediction markets can actually price all these different things that if you get smarter about all the sub-components, then you can be smart about the actual component. Right. Like if you want to price a Tesla stock, you have to price whether Elon is going to leave, whether they're going to over or under deliver on deliveries, whether, you know, how fast autonomous vehicles are going to come around, all these different questions. And prediction markets can price all these different factors that then feed into the stock price. Yeah. This is very important for us to keep being smart about resource allocation over time.

41:34Otherwise, our model of the world is going to just like get worse. Yes. You're going to get less smart. Maybe as a last topic, I'm sort of interested in, I didn't realize until chatting with you that your company is small relative to sort of the scale you're at. So you're not much over 100 people. Yeah, we're 120, I was asking 127 now. So how does that work? I mean, like that is very small relative to what you've accomplished. So what's interesting about it is that we didn't sit down proactively and like we didn't ride a dog of like, how are we going to build a small company that's lean? it just sort of happened.

42:06Did you do any particular other things that this was a byproduct of? Yeah, so I think a few things like, and I'm not 100 % sure. So I'm still kind of figuring out like, why are all these other companies so much bigger? I'm still like trying to figure out, am I missing something? One is, Luan and I work very, very hard. Very, very hard. Like until today, like we really have a chip on our shoulder. Like we'd like to think we're the underdogs. What I learned over time is like, so if you look at kind of, we're generally like first to office, last from office, work on weekends. And I think that just generally the output per person in the company just is heightened because generally the leader is really in the frontline doing a lot.

42:44Number two is we have a lot of direct reports. Like how many? There's not really a managerial layer in the company yet. So like a hundred? Like if you ask the one out what maybe like 80, 85 of the people in the company today are doing, she knows. Wow. Because she probably checked with them on Slack in the last 48 hours. And the rest is maybe me. Well, I mean, there's a chunk of people that just don't need, like you don't need to know what they're doing. You know that they're just doing, like you got to let them cook, like, you know. So that's number two. And then I think number three is we don't think about org charts much.

43:17And I don't know how that will scale. We're still thinking about that. But like, we think about like here, the sort of, like we keep sort of dynamically listing here the top like X problems of the company today. And how, who do we have on those problems? And people move between problems. Yeah, it's sort of like, yeah, it's like, do people self-organize to the problems? Yeah, yeah. It's like a, you know, like cells in an organization, like, you know how like, if you have like a, if you get cut, your cells will just kind of come around the cut and like do their thing. It'll be like a bit like that.

43:45I mentioned to you, I really want you to read the Valve employee handbook. I think. Yeah, I'm excited about reading it. I think it's pretty good. But it just sort of happens. And it's kind of like, make sure there's like, like as little kind of constraints or bottlenecks of that sort of self organization to happen as possible. Is this what people expected when you hired them? Is it the type? Did you hire types of people that you thought could only function in a place like this? Like, how did you? How did you end up with that culture when it's what I would describe as extremely uncommon? You know, we don't have all the answers, obviously, but like the one is we do bias on slow versus intercept because people have an intercept.

44:24I think generally can land this culture and be like, what, like what on earth is going on? Like, this is crazy. And that's just happened. Like we've had this happen. Someone who's used to like a big, more structured organization comes in. Or just, yeah, even not even big, like an organization is just structured in a different way and they show up. They're like, this is like crazy. Like, you know, this is like complete chaos. Right. And because, yeah, it looks like an organism where like these organisms are moving around. And so so slope because slope is they don't know. There's, you know, they're super smart, very high agency.

44:54Like, oh, like they don't even think about what's happening. They just think it's normal. So so that's one. Number two is like I always say, I mean, Brian Chesky put better. I didn't I verbalize it when he put it into tours. But like we don't manage people who manage work. So people that just like have just generally high agency, we never have to check on whether they're doing something. Sometimes we have to reorient a bit. hey, like, actually, this is not actually that useful. Like, we should, like, do something else. Or, you know, or, like, be in very much in the details. But it's about the work, not the people.

45:21But just they're doing stuff. They have this sort of high agency. I want to always be doing something. Yeah. And I kind of bias, honestly, towards, like, execution over strategy. Me too. I really do. Like, because, look, I think strategy is hard. But, like, you know, what I've found over time is, like, the natural next step for a company is generally kind of natural. Like, you know what I mean? It's like, it's not like if you probe, like for a public company, for example, when the CEO lays out a strategy, it's not like, what should we do? It's like, can we do it? And most of the time, how quick can we move and all of that?

45:49Most of the time. Periodically, there's probably like a non-obvious strategic decision that like the founder needs to make, but that's probably a couple of times a year kind of thing. Yes, max, max, I think. And it's usually a little bit longer horizon than a year. Yeah. So I think of our role, Luan and I, is like, I try to very, very high level. Like, are we just like directionally, generally in the right direction? And what are the big risks in the next three to four years? and like make sure that we like are thinking about those and are executing against those. And I really mean three to four years.

46:17I'm pretty paranoid. Again, from my time from Lebanon, I always think like, what is the thing that's going to go wrong in three, four years? And like, let me work through that. And then very much in the details. So like, I literally, I'm often like in specific copy in the product. Like a lot of it, Luan and I wrote still to today or like even ads, like we get into the copy, like, is this good? It's very, very, very specific things. And everything in between, we try to like not spend any time on. Yeah. And that pushes other people to not spend any time on. Yeah. And sometimes there's a subset of people that doesn't work well for.

46:47And then people can just opt out. Basically. Yeah. I mean, there's not a clean solution, you know? Yeah, of course. Just hard, right? Building a company. But a lot of people kind of like it. Like they just don't want, they don't want to be managed. Are you going to be able to keep the company small? I really hope so. I mean, they're scaling fast. That's one of the worries I have. Small as possible, at least. I think about this a lot. That's one of the worries we have. I would say maybe the trade-off, which is like, you know, people sometimes walk away with like, oh, this perfectly run company.

47:13And the answer is like, no, like not at all. The trade-off is usually, I think we take on more organizational chaos. Does that make sense? And to me, I think there's a bit of a decision you make as a company. Like either you're more chaotic or you have more process, which means bureaucracy and some degree of slowness. And so Calgary is very comfortable with putting something out there and getting bashed for it. But like, you know, three, four weeks later, it gets much better. and now you're much better than if you had waited the two months. We're very comfortable with that. It's great. Tarek, this is super fun.

47:43Thanks for having your time with you. Thanks for having me. This is awesome.