In short
Podcast Notes: You, Me & CPG - Episode 26: The Fightback: Is 2026 the Year Alcohol Roars Back?
Podcast Overview
- Title: You, Me & CPG
- Host: Jamie Holtum
- Theme: Exploring significant shifts in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) industry.
- Goal: Provide actionable insights to CPG leaders to drive growth and challenge current business assumptions.
Episode Summary This episode debates the future of the alcohol industry, challenging the doom-and-gloom narratives prevalent in media. The discussion revolves around the potential comeback of alcohol consumption, particularly by 2026, with insights from experts in the field.
Key Guests
- Paul Thomas: Formerly with Diageo and Asahi, brings corporate insights.
- Rob Wallis: Founder of MOTH Drinks, discusses trends from an emerging brand perspective.
- Tristram Coates: Founder of Glass Half Full Agency, offers insight into sales distribution for alcohol brands.
Major Themes and Discussions
- Challenging the Narratives
- Current Headlines: Often depict a bleak future for alcohol due to executive departures and declining sales.
- Growth Realities: Despite negative press, certain segments (like Gen Z) show increased participation and spending in alcohol.
- Pockets of Positivity in Alcohol Consumption
- RTDs and Cocktails: Growth noted in Ready-to-Drink (RTD) cocktails and premium spirits.
- Emerging Trends: The importance of understanding how younger generations, particularly Gen Z, engage with alcohol.
- Market Dynamics
- Brand Investment: The episode emphasizes the need for investment in brand building and consumer engagement.
- Alcohol's Fun Factor: Discussing how brands need to recapture the fun and enjoyment associated with alcohol.
- Entertainment Over Consumption
- Share of Entertainment: Moving the conversation from 'share of throat' (consumption) to 'share of entertainment' (experience).
- Engaging Consumers: Creating memorable experiences in bars and pubs to attract customers.
- Innovative Approaches to Alcohol
- New Positions for Brands: Emphasizing the need for brands to innovate their marketing strategies and product offerings.
- Responding to Consumer Needs: Highlighting the importance of understanding consumer habits and preferences post-COVID.
- Aligning with the New Consumer Landscape
- Changing Social Preferences: Young consumers are looking for experiences that fit their lifestyle, often preferring engagements outside traditional pub settings.
- At-home Consumption: An increase in at-home drinking experiences, driven by economic factors and changing social habits.
Key Takeaways
- Nuanced Perspectives: The alcohol industry is not in a crisis; growth opportunities exist if brands adapt to changing consumer behaviors.
- Focus on Experience: Brands must prioritize fun and memorable experiences over solely focusing on product features and premiumization.
- Adapt and Innovate: Alcohol brands should explore new marketing strategies and collaborations to thrive in a competitive landscape.
Future Outlook
- Experts express optimism about the future of the alcohol industry, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and engaging with consumers authentically.
- The speakers acknowledge potential challenges from government regulations and market perceptions but remain hopeful about growth through innovation.
Conclusion The podcast concludes with a call to action for brands to embrace creativity and confidence in their marketing and product strategies, highlighting the potential for a robust recovery in the alcohol market by 2026.
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Note: For further insights and detailed discussions, listeners are encouraged to access the full episode of "You, Me & CPG."
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOFraming the Discussion: Alcohol's Narrative
0:45 to 1:46
The hosts introduce the discussion about the alcohol industry's future and the contrasting narratives around it.
“So today we've got a bit of a fight back, a round two to understand, well, what's going on from an alcohol perspective?”
Paul Thomas on the Reality of Alcohol Sales
1:46 to 3:36
Paul Thomas discusses the current state of the alcohol industry, challenges faced, and growth areas.
“I know that you're a bit irked by the narrative that says it's all doom and gloom, that alcohol brands are fading, non-alc is the future, all of that stuff.”
Rob Wallis Addresses Gen Z Consumption Trends
3:36 to 6:06
Rob Wallis shares insights on Gen Z's drinking habits and how they impact the industry narrative.
“Are people getting confused with growth versus scale?”
Tristram Coates on Sales and Distribution Insights
6:06 to 7:35
Tristram Coates talks about the sales dynamics of the no and low alcohol sector and consumer behavior.
“Tristan, from your perspective, from a kind of, yeah, from a sales distribution bartender said, what are you seeing?”
Changing Perceptions: The Fun Element in Alcohol
7:35 to 9:16
Discussion on how alcohol brands need to focus on fun and consumer engagement to succeed.
“So I think that, you know, there's so much optimism to be had and, you know, we shouldn't listen too much to the doomsters.”
The Dilemma of Premium Pricing in Alcohol
9:16 to 14:01
The panel discusses the implications of rising alcohol prices and the industry's focus on quality over fun.
“So that idea of fun is an interesting one, isn't it?”
The Transition of Hard Seltzer in the UK
14:01 to 14:30
Discussion on the challenges faced by Hard Seltzer in the UK market.
“You know, you shouldn't drink this and do a yoga class or go driving.”
The Alcohol Industry's Premiumization Challenges
14:31 to 15:24
Exploration of how premiumization affects consumer choices in alcohol.
“I'm just building exactly what was said there.”
Cognac's Cultural Relevance
15:25 to 16:20
Analysis of Cognac's appeal to younger generations and cultural integration.
“And that's the point around premiumization.”
Challenger Brands and Consumer Engagement
16:21 to 17:06
How challenger brands innovate and engage consumers in traditional categories.
“as the courvoisiers of the world and the French water coming through it.”
Show all 38 chapters
Whiskey's Rituals and Gen Z
17:07 to 17:58
Discussion on Gen Z's relationship with whiskey and its rituals.
“And it will ultimately take their share.”
The Rise of English Whiskey
17:59 to 19:15
The potential of English whiskey brands to appeal to modern consumers.
“Give it to them and allow them to explore it.”
Introduction to Spirits and Bartending
19:16 to 20:40
How bartenders play a role in introducing new spirits to consumers.
“again, get them drinking whiskey in a different way that's more relevant to the contemporary cocktail culture that we now exist on.”
The Future of Vodka and Consumer Trends
20:41 to 21:48
An examination of vodka's evolution and its appeal to younger consumers.
“There is a, I guess, a feeling of excitement that hasn't been tapped into, obviously, the world of Mernoff Ice.”
Success Stories in Premium Vodka
21:49 to 22:39
Highlighting successful vodka brands that engage modern consumers.
“the future of how can it kind of engage younger consumers?”
Sustainability in the Alcohol Industry
22:40 to 24:42
The evolving importance of sustainability in consumer purchasing decisions.
“I think what I found, what we found challenging, and this is a category piece is that it's very hard to get people to spend more than£25,£30 on a bottle of unflavoured vodka.”
Diverse Approaches to Vodka Marketing
24:43 to 27:00
Different strategies brands use to appeal to various consumer segments in vodka.
“Sapping is a great example of doing it properly.”
The Changing Landscape of Pubs
27:01 to 28:00
Discussion on the current state of pubs and consumer engagement.
“Yeah, that's been a narrative that's run really since about 2008, since that crash and recession has been pubs are folding weekly.”
Evolving Pub Dynamics and Consumer Preferences
28:00 to 29:19
Explore how pub culture has shifted in response to consumer needs over the years.
“How are people engaging differently across bars, across the trade?”
The Role of Brands in Supporting Bars
29:20 to 31:22
Understand the importance of brand partnerships with bars for sustained success.
“is that you've got to really be sympathetic to the fact that these operators are going through the most challenging trading conditions they've ever had.”
Challenges and Opportunities in the Alcohol Trade
31:23 to 33:38
Delve into the struggles faced by bars and how brands can step up to support them.
“Knowing that my whiskey is distilled twice or my gin as a heather as a botanical is not going to do that.”
Attracting Younger Consumers to Pubs
33:39 to 35:03
Learn about strategies to engage younger audiences and enhance their pub experiences.
“will start to bring consumers back, right?”
Breaking Gender Stereotypes in Alcohol Consumption
35:04 to 36:38
Examine the impact of gender perceptions on alcohol brands and pub culture.
“and bringing in the changes that the consumers who are going to walk through that door need, they will struggle.”
The Rise of At-Home Alcohol Consumption
36:39 to 40:05
Discover the trends and data surrounding at-home drinking and its implications.
“Pubs, beer, whiskey has all inherently been draped in masculine codes for a long time.”
Shifts in Alcohol Consumption Habits Post-COVID
40:06 to 42:00
Discuss how COVID-19 has altered drinking habits and expectations in social settings.
“or the similar amount in a boardroom of 100 % representation, you're going to get it wrong.”
Consumer Spending and At-Home Experiences
42:00 to 43:00
Explore the shift in consumer spending behaviors towards at-home experiences and the implications for the alcohol industry.
“It's the cost of a pint and going out, what that means.”
Understanding Consumer Joy and Trade-offs
43:00 to 44:10
Learn how brands can better understand consumer priorities and trade-offs in their spending and entertainment choices.
“It's truly understanding your consumer, your consumer's lives and going, what are the tradeoffs, right?”
Reframing Alcohol Brand Strategy
44:10 to 45:50
Discuss the importance of reframing brand identity and understanding diverse consumer segments in the alcohol market.
“If you think that's where your consumer is, you're missing the mark.”
The Importance of Insights in Alcohol Marketing
45:50 to 47:30
Understand how direct consumer engagement can drive valuable insights for alcohol brands.
The US Alcohol Market and THC Competition
47:30 to 49:40
Gain insights into the competitive landscape of the alcohol market in the US, focusing on the impact of THC.
“Just a light touch on differing consumer mentality across the RTD cocktail opportunity or in general in terms of view on drinking US versus UK, Rob?”
The Blurring Lines Between Alcohol and Other Categories
49:40 to 51:30
Discover how the boundaries between alcohol and other beverage categories, like THC and energy drinks, are evolving.
“And so I think what you see in Boston versus what you see in LA is very different.”
Future Challenges and Opportunities for Alcohol Brands
51:30 to 54:05
Explore the future challenges and opportunities for alcohol brands and the need for positive branding.
“I'm sure people are choosing a moth versus a Trip, right?”
Optimism for the Future of Alcohol
54:05 to 56:00
Learn about the optimistic outlook for the alcohol industry and the potential for innovation and growth.
“This is a category where people want to have fun.”
The Future of No and Low Alcohol Beverages
56:00 to 56:37
Explore the evolving landscape of no and low alcohol beverages and their potential growth.
“In answer to the question, I simply don't know.”
Moth's Five-Year Vision and Industry Challenges
56:37 to 57:29
Discussion on Moth's strategy and the challenges it faces in a changing alcohol landscape.
“and taking all the most exciting brands on that journey with them.”
The Complexity of the Alcohol Market
57:29 to 58:25
Understanding the nuanced nature of the alcohol market and its various growth pockets.
“I could see the UK getting to that but I don't think that's that drastic a revolution.”
Influences on the Future of Alcohol
58:25 to 59:56
Examine the two major influences shaping the future of the alcohol industry.
“There will always be pockets of growth and decline.”
Reframing Alcohol Brands
59:56 to 1:00:52
Learn about the need for alcohol brands to reframe their identity and market positioning.
“You think about yourself as an entertainment brand, as an indulgent brand.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:04Hello and welcome back to YouMe and CPG, the podcast at the heart of consumer goods. now today we've got a really interesting one so before christmas we had a podcast um billed as the future of drinking uh which obviously is a really interesting topic how consumption is changing how people are drinking differently we had guests uh from club soda bativo and iwsr it was a really good one please listen if you haven't however i was called out on linkedin quite rightly uh by one paul thomas to say how can you have a future drinking podcast with such a biased lens towards non-alcohol, which is completely fair enough.
0:46So today we've got a bit of a fight back, a round two to understand, well, what's going on from an alcohol perspective? Yeah, the narrative can be a little bit doom and gloom if you look at the press, but there's got to be another angle. What are big brands doing, thinking, what are small brands doing and thinking in the space? And that's what we want to talk about today. We've got some brilliant guests to talk us through it. Paul Thomas, Ex-Suntory, Asahi and Diageo to give us a viewpoint from the big corporates, but at the same time, a kind of insight background as well. So that should be really good from a consumer perspective.
1:23Rob Wallace, founder of Moth, probably thinking, what is all the fuss about with the growth that they're seeing, conquering the UK at the moment and starting to in the US, which is fantastic. And then Tristan Coates, founder of the Glass Half Full Agency. So at the coalface, sales and distribution for independent alcohol brands. So really giving us a viewpoint of what's going on specifically there. So thank you very much for joining. Paul, first question coming at you. I know that you're a bit irked by the narrative that says it's all doom and gloom, that alcohol brands are fading, non-alc is the future, all of that stuff.
2:00What's a fair narrative? Yeah, thanks, Jimmy. I'm quite easily irked. It might be an age thing. I mean, look, the reality is, if you look at the data and you exclude COVID and you do a trajectory from before COVID, the alcohol industry is pretty much exactly where it should be. RTD is growing. Rob, thank you. There's growth in cocktails, absolutely no and low. There are so many pockets of positivity. Now, of course, we're not daft. We acknowledge health trends. We acknowledge Gen Z. We acknowledge that this is the first time in sort of trackable history that alcohol is having a wobble. However, my belief coming into this is what makes this industry great and will grow it is investment behind incredible brands and people.
2:48So just looking at some of the numbers as well, just thinking it and we'll get on to some of those points. I think some really big points about brand building, right, and short termism. I think that's something, you know, you look at the success stories that we're seeing, Moth will get on to an MO, clearly doing brand building at a very high level. Non-alc is 4 % of total sales across alcohol or like-for-like products. It's very small. And yes, growth is significant. Do you think we're getting a little bit wrapped up in the noise coming from non-alc? And it's London-centric potentially as part of that.
3:34But what's going on there? Because 4 % is so small. Are people getting confused with growth versus scale? I think it's a great question. Look, no and low offers new choices to consumers. If I don't want to drink alcohol, it offers me more choices. but even in the most developed known low market, Spain and Germany, in beer, the most it's ever reached is about 15 % share. So it is a great incremental opportunity for the industry, but we cannot go on believing that that is going to fill the gap of the declining volumes we are seeing in good old-fashioned, full-strength alcohol. And if we don't address that as an industry, long-term we're in trouble.
4:17Rob, Moth, from the outside, brilliant success over the past few years. And when you do see the narrative around Gen Z not drinking, Lenor's drinking less, Silva's drinking less, all of that stuff, particularly in the UK, and you look at your success, how do you reconcile those two things? I think the headlines lack a lot of nuance. I think it's easy to say Gen Z this, older people this. I think from our perspective, what it means is the no and no story. It's a, it's great, good news. Like the alcohol industry wants to write about it. It's a good news story. We'll feel good about the increase of moderation.
4:56It's great thing to write about, but I think it's harder to write a headline of alcohol is changing and consumption are changing. Gen Z drinking less is a very simple thing to get your head around. However, is that actually true? A lot of the new data says, no, what they were is broke. Yeah. Not teetotal. Yeah. And that's, that's the market. And so now that they've been in the workforce longer and they've got more disposable income, alcohol trends, they're very close to millennials and people older. So I think it's difficult to try and write a nuanced argument here when there's so many things going on across so many categories and comparing what's happening in wine to RTD to no and low.
5:32It's really difficult. But I think we can all say that there is a headline, that there is change, but that also presents opportunity for brands like Moth. IWSR data in the last pod actually said, yeah, Gen Z participation in alcohol is rising. And that's not just because more people are reaching the age that they can drink, it's actually rising, they're spending more money. I think pubs as well will get on hospitality, but pubs are actually from a value perspective up across how much people are spending in the pubs. So again, there's conflicting data, isn't there? And sometimes it doesn't fit in the narrative of kind of the doom and gloom.
6:10Tristan, from your perspective, from a kind of, yeah, from a sales distribution bartender said, what are you seeing? How does, again, how does the narrative fit in a kind of real bar setting? We represent three pretty much category leaders in the No and Low space in Heverleaf, Non-Alk Spirit, Wild Idol, Non-Alk Sparkling Wine. And we're actually in the process of launching an NBD product for our Noam, our German Varien Lager brand. So we can see all the trends happening. I think the biggest thing, the biggest change from our perspective is that No and Low is not a category you can laugh at and ignore.
6:48in that three years ago, even five, six years ago, people just didn't take it quite seriously. I don't think bartender advocacy was where it is today. And the data is undeniable. The category is booming. And the majority, all three of our non-alcohol brands are in double or triple digit growth. So it's definitely growing. That being said, as you pointed out, it's from a very low base and it still represents a tiny share of total alcohol consumption. I think that what we're finding day to day is that whilst we're dealing with big consumer trends and a massive change in consumer behavior, really driven by the pace in which technology is influencing the consumer and our lives, the brands are succeeding.
7:34And the good brands that really are doing something different and being bold and being creative and driving categories forward in their way are doing so very well. So I think that, you know, there's so much optimism to be had and, you know, we shouldn't listen too much to the doomsters. You know, every single year you hear a different thing and predict a different thing. I think if brands continue to just focusing on, you know, why they exist, their reason to exist and peddling, you know, a real challenger story, then there's a lot to be excited about. I think there's also a really interesting thing, building on what both Rob and Tristram have said, which is for years and years and years, alcohol looked at share of throat, which is a horrible expression, but it only compared itself to teas and coffees and waters and Coca-Colas and whatever else it might be.
8:23alcohol now needs to think more about share of entertainment because people coming through now, Gen Z, Gen Alpha in time, have more choice with what to spend their money on than any generation has had before. Alcohol is now, and we can talk later about why, a very premium price point. It's now facing the Freddo test. The pint of a Guinness in London is becoming the new Freddo. and that's seven eight pounds younger people are starting to think well what else could i do with seven eight pounds if i'm going out and i want to drink a couple of pints with friends in a pub let's say that's 30 40 pounds what else can i do with that and because alcohol has stopped talking about the wonder magic and fun of its brands for quite a long time it can't easily justify it as perhaps it once could.
9:17So that idea of fun is an interesting one, isn't it? The other brands in front of us, we've got Buzzball and we've got Moth and let's not have a competition, but they are fun. They're lively, they're dynamic, they're great flavors, they're great packaging, they're colorful. I mean, it's not as simple as that. Of course, it's not, Rob, but you guys have thought about that within the positioning and the building of the brand is how do we bring a sense of of quality but also a sense of joy to the category yeah i think there's a trend that we were so aware of when we were looking at sort of the branding on moth of being too cool for school of being too aloof and too disengaged with the consumer and too far removed from the reality of like how you actually consume and drink and enjoy a product and i think you've got to give credit to buzz balls if they are unashamed look they know what they are they know what they're for they know what they're not um and people have really resonated with that and then for a moth consumer we like to think with a tinny that you could take home to meet the parents it's that sort of you can have brand loyalty with an rtd for the first time and we play in that space but again be like as as paul said i think there is a disengagement from the day-to-day of you know you can have these lofty extremely expensive commercial advertising for your are you advertising for the one occasion a year while you might be on a beach drinking this rum or this whatever or you drink are you advertising for the 99 days a year you wish you were and we we looked out of home last year and sort of what we were doing billboards and things and you ask the question do you want to put a picture of a beach up and say like moth takes you there and it's the one the one day a year you're on a beach or do you want to speak to the people who want a little bit of that feeling 300 days a year or whatever it is so i think yeah you got to be careful into how you speak to the consumer i always think that positioning question is interesting about how can you create kind of magic in the mundane versus pure escapism and we talk about like the haynes the iced tea phenomenon every iced tea brand say drink this take you to the beach uh but after a while you drink every day right you're actually sat in your cubicle at work and and you don't you want to feel good about your life in front of you not what what it could be so i i think you're so right uh from a positioning perspective just thinking about gen z then specifically uh drinking less um as they are right and and you're right it's it's income driven it's economics they are starting to earn a little bit more more money and they are starting to spend more on alcohol part of me also thinks talking about brands that are fun a lot of non-alc brands are not particularly fun right they're quite lofty and they're quite holier than thou and quite serious about their their uh i guess purpose and vision and all of that so do you get some point people think for goodness sake i'm just going to spend money on a beer i'm just going to have a cocktail i i've had enough of a of this holier-than-thou non-out world at some point, I just want to have a laugh, and I know alcohol doesn't always facilitate that, but at the same point, at some point, the COVID hangover, the health and well-being tidal wave, the impending doom of a World War III, does that not just go, you know what, I'll spend£16 and have two beers with my mates, rather than another health class, rather than some non-out.
12:30Do you think that sense will come back as a trend? I personally think it will, but do you think that will come out of heaven? I think there's always a swing back. When we started, we were, and still are probably, the highest strength RTD on a shelf in the UK. And we're unashamed about that of, look, if you are not drinking, right now in the moth range, we can't offer you anything. But there's a swing back against that of, look, if you're going to drink, it should be spectacular and brilliant. And if you're going to have less, make what you're drinking brilliant. And I think the brands will succeed and not the holier-than-thou, whether they are booze or not are the ones that genuinely are just looking for an experience in a relationship with the consumer but evo i would not say is a holier than that i think it's fun their activations are with a bright yellow piano and people singing and doing drag like you can't say that that's a holier than thou and even lucky saint do a wonderful job of playing with the holier than thou of like thou shalt go to the pub like there's so i think there's opportunity to not be serious whether you are booze or not but it is as you say it's that engagement with the consumer and Are you being, for when they do decide to spend the money they have left, as opposed to like, what are you offering?
13:33Yeah, it's interesting, isn't it? Because those two brands you mentioned, both fantastic. And they come from a point of how can we bring the joy? How can we look at just great drinks, right? And Emma said, we'd like to think about the future as kind of ABV agnostic. It doesn't matter. We're just going to bring great brands. Exactly that point. I guess some of the brands that are kind of rooted in health versus joy are the ones that maybe can lean too far that way. Or probably shouldn't play in the alcohol category because there's functional and there's loads of other stuff, right? I think it's the danger.
14:00I remember when Hard Seltzer came to the UK and that sort of wasn't the easiest transition for that product coming over of trying to sell alcohol as healthy is fundamentally flawed. You know, you shouldn't drink this and do a yoga class or go driving. That is not the point. Like indulgence, whether it's because of taste and it's zero or because it's alcohol and taste. But indulgence, you're allowed to have that. We still have chocolate. We still have, you know, things that you wouldn't have every day. But I think not shying away from that, what the purpose of it is, is... Sorry, Paul, go on. I'm just building exactly what was said there.
14:33Where the alcohol industry, the big players have not helped themselves, is for the last 10, maybe even longer years, pushing prices up continually, continually forcing through a premium. And the way they've justified that is by talking very rationally about ingredients, about process, about provenance, about the people making the product. And all of that is great and it's interesting, but it's not fun and it's not entertaining. And so, so many brands have tried to justify putting their price up by talking about the liquid inside the bottle, rather than the sort of emotional experience, the fun, the joy that you might have as a result of the drink.
15:16So now all of these brands feel completely stuck, not being able to talk about fun, experience, enjoyment. and it's allowed the moths, the buzz balls of the world to come in and go, well, have us then. And that's the point around premiumization. At some point, premiumization hits a ceiling. People think, I don't want to spend that amount of money. And I think there was a great example on cognac, which is to say, cognac has done nothing to attract a younger generation, has done nothing to come to their consumer. It is a come to us type of category. And the prices have gone up and up and up and up and demand has fallen.
15:58Like, is that not a case of, yes, one big brand's not taking the, I guess, the non-drinking thing seriously? What is that a case of? I will slightly disagree with that on Cognac because Hennessy has managed to embed itself hugely in sort of culture, rap culture. I'm not part of that culture. which is why I'm not going to go any further on it. But that hasn't talked about the purity of the liquid as the courvoisiers of the world and the French water coming through it. It's made itself relevant, fun, and aspirational. And that brand has managed to grow whilst the rest of the categories decline. So brands can do it.
16:35It's just, unfortunately, it's increasingly the exception rather than the rule. I heard it, saw a stat the other day, Hennessy has been mentioned in 4 ,000 rap songs. Much like us, Jamie. Yeah, exactly. Exactly, yeah. So, I mean, that in itself is amazing, isn't it? And it was a very good pushback, actually. But the question remains, holistically, do some categories need to think we need to go to our consumers, not wait for them to come to us? Categories do so at their peril. And it's why the existence of the Challenger brand is so exciting. Because ultimately, that innovation is what takes those categories on.
17:10And it will ultimately take their share. And so, you know, categories, old-fashioned categories, I look at something like, you know, in the wine world, the port category. If you look at cognac, you know, these are categories that have existed how they have for, you know, so long and have continued to sell on exactly the same credentials and put their prices up more and more. And unless they reinvent themselves, they will be challenged at some point. I think there's something interesting. We did a massive piece of work on scotch a few years ago. and what we found was the routines and the rituals and the stories and the cues and the semiotics were interesting to everybody including gen z but they didn't feel like they could own them because an older generation owned them and you look at something like coffee which is always the example when someone wants an adjacent category but a younger generation has got into coffee like no other you know understands where the beans have come from how to make it all the kind of depth and nuance to to the coffee category now is vastly different to it was 10 years ago because that category has opened itself up and said yeah you know be part of us can't we know be part of the the rituals and routines is that again you know looking at some of the the challenges that the whiskey category is facing is that not part of that to say just give these give Gen Z a new sense of what whiskey can be, a new world that they can relate to, the rituals and the semiotics.
18:44Give it to them and allow them to explore it. Is it as simple as that? Yeah, well, it's very relevant. We've just acquired an English whiskey brand called Fieldin, which we're incredibly excited about. And one of our biggest motivations for the acquisition and the purchase was exactly that, not being bound by the Scottish Whiskey Association, being able to do things differently, being able to appeal to consumer in a modern and bold sense. And for all of those reasons, we believe that with the right brand execution, positioning and build, we can bring new consumers into the category, get people drinking whiskey again, get them drinking whiskey in a different way that's more relevant to the contemporary cocktail culture that we now exist on.
19:27And somewhere along the way, everything in the whiskey world just went back to talking about distilling and age statements and barrels, etc. And I think that the opportunity for a new world whiskey, which we're already seeing, to appeal to consumers in a contemporary format is just so exciting. So, you know, let's see what happens. But I can only see a positive from being sort of, you know, taken out of those rules that have governed what is such a powerful house for so long. Yeah, I think to build on that as well, the introducing new people to the category like whiskey, but also in other spirits, it may also be part of the rise of RTD, but also the role of the bartender.
20:09if you want to own tequila and that sort of thing for the first time going to a tequila specialty stop or a supermarket in the uk it's an intimidating place to go and spend 40 plus pounds on a bottle of tequila whereas for brands like moth you can go and try it at four pounds and waitress ainsuys wherever and that allows you to start getting into that world with a foot in the door that that huge initial outlay and whiskey is the same you know great whiskeys are not cheap these days um so but i also think it's the the role of the bartender in the entree to introduce those flavors sort of one at a time you know you don't have to go and buy a whole bottle of tequila to taste a tequila cocktail which maybe contains a flavor that you're familiar with anyway you know the spicy margarita probably introduced a lot of people to their first great tequila drink and that's you know but so i think acknowledging that driving trial other ways yeah recruitment is a is yeah hugely that's a kind of a classic kind of way in isn't it to a lot of different categories both food and drink that that people do and i think that's a very good point vodka for a second there are different categories right that are I guess seeing a rise that people are interested in and they feel cyclical you know obviously gin has had its moment recently a category which I guess hasn't really seen a huge amount of growth across the last year some versus something like tequila or gin sorry the last decade is something like vodka which feels like it's been potentially stuck in neutral a little bit.
21:35There is a, I guess, a feeling of excitement that hasn't been tapped into, obviously, the world of Mernoff Ice. And that world was quite exciting and young. But, you know, that was quite a long time ago now. Just, you know, what are your views on vodka, the future of how can it kind of engage younger consumers? Well, I think it's linked to exactly what we were just saying about whiskey. And what I was going to say on whiskey, and it's the same for vodka, is there are brands which are succeeding. So in vodka you have the brand au yeah which isn't targeted for me or probably anyone in this room it's targeted for a younger urban demographic it's cool it's bling it's a good price point it looks great you know it looks great on your insta reel they're tapping into culture they're making it relevant what they're not trying to do is try and sell the number of time it's been distilled the purity of the process yeah that isn't interesting what will make vodka popular is by getting in culture and people being wanting to see with those kind of brands i think the other thing with vodka as well it's it may see success and it has is in high growth like tequila and especially in the uk is premium vodka is more accessible than mid-tier whiskey so you can have a really you know a brand that you can be proud to have on the shelf and is accessible and you can get into that so much so much more easily than you can other spirits including tequila and some other things so i think it being non-age and you can talk about distillation all the rest of it i think it is an accessible luxury and i think rtd and other categories people are looking for that you know you look at smaller serves as well that you see in the states a lot of smaller spirits offering just to get that price point over the line so yeah i think vodka has a bright future yeah we we represent a brand called sapling vodka which is one of the big sort of success stories of vodka the vodka actually in the uk of the last sort of five six years and um it's an amazing brand that has been built off you know fantastic sustainability and submission-led purposes and we've been able to win a considerable amount of share by giving people a fantastic you know british vodka at a competitive price that's selling off you know all of the the all of the themes of sustainability that we're seeing in the market and you know we've been able to take quite a lot of very boring vodka share and, you know, in the process.
23:53I think what I found, what we found challenging, and this is a category piece is that it's very hard to get people to spend more than£25,£30 on a bottle of unflavoured vodka. So you need flavour innovation in order to, you know, I don't know why it's the case, but consumers are happy to pay more for something if it's got flavour in it. People care about sustainability and boost? Well, you know, we're seeing a sort of bit of a counter revolution, aren't we? I think that, you know, for five years it was five to ten years it's been a huge movement it's been on the tip of everyone's tongue and um you know i think a lot of the sort of big picture narrative was heading that way i think as with every sort of revolution there's a bit of a counter-revolution a little questioning of the authenticity of a lot of those brand stories um and so we're definitely seeing it sort of probably slightly less important than it was especially in what a very challenging economic environment you know people think about their wallet of all they do for sure and just buzzball is a good example of that rob yeah i mean i i think it probably is i think what we see is there's a bunch of consumer data out there no doubt you guys have seen of where purchase intent is affected by sustainability and it's right down the bottom as to what actually when you come up to a shelf makes the difference now i don't think that any brand should listen to that and therefore decide that sustainability shouldn't be important to them i think it is our duty as a baseline to do the sustainable thing and to be here for the long term if you want to use it as marketing in the center of your brand, fine.
25:17Do the hard work. Don't greenwash it. Sapping is a great example of doing it properly. But I think it is a minimum standard whether consumers want to engage with it or not. We're a B Corp. That's important. But it's not why people pick up Moth first time, probably 99 out of 100. There's nothing wrong with focusing on great product, great taste, great liquid, and doing your homework. And I think that's very much where we take it. You should all be adhering to these standards as a minimum. And then what's the product is what you talk about. And what about the consumer saying do you get? I think there is, unfortunately, still it's a bottom of the purchase consideration.
25:49Right now, if you are time poor, cash poor, and you are not in the trade nearly as much as you used to be, you just want a little something. And probably it still comes down to the companies doing the hard work, whether consumers pick them for that or not. What's exciting about this, though, is just on vodka there, we have presented two incredibly different ways that the vodka category can grow. and it's by understanding your consumer and it's by understanding their motivations and the moment they're having at one end if i'm having a party and i want to impress my friends with something that's cool i'm choosing au vodka and i don't care the sustainability of that gold bottle sapling's not the right brand for that moment however i'm making some beautiful moscow mules for my friends coming around you know in my swanky pad in london and i want i want to have a nice story to engage them with.
26:39I want to look sophisticated. I'm not choosing AU, I'm choosing Sapling. So the problem in this industry is we always tend to go, oh, there can only be one way. There's hundreds of ways of growing. And I think the more that these stories can be communicated and celebrated, the less we'll get away from the perpetual doom and gloom. And it has to be this or that, right? There's so many ways of growing. A nuanced story is around socializing and the future of it and how consumers are socializing, connecting differently. We've talked about pubs. Yeah, that's been a narrative that's run really since about 2008, since that crash and recession has been pubs are folding weekly.
27:24The numbers are shocking. yet there is actually a little bit of good news for pubs. Consumers are coming back to pubs so there is a growth in spend, 7 % per visit a 1.9 % growth in the UK and bar industry as of November 25 year and year so there's a little bit of green shoots potentially to say it's not all doom and gloom. UK pub numbers are down 15 % since 2007 though so it's a big story. Tristan, good person to start with there around socializing. What do you see? How are people engaging differently across bars, across the trade? And what do they want now versus 10 years ago? Just very quickly on pubs because I'm a huge pub goer in sports and we work with some of the best operators across the UK.
28:18I think it's fair to say, and I'm going to sort of sound probably controversial when I say this, but there were too many pubs before. I think there was something like 62 ,000 pubs about 15 years ago. It just simply isn't enough consumers to be able to keep 62 ,000 pubs as profitable businesses. And so as with anything, when there's an over-expansion of something, there needs to be a consolidation. And what we've seen is that the pubs that have been really getting their kitchens up to top standards are doing things differently and bringing people in on different weeknights and really worked for those consumers are doing incredibly well.
28:58And I definitely think that some of our most successful operators are new public businesses that are doing things a bit differently and sort of leading a new generation of pubs. So I think that there are definitely some positives, but learnings from that too. I think that the biggest thing from our perspective is that 70 % of what we do who's selling to the UK Andre to restaurants, hotels, bars, caterers, is that you've got to really be sympathetic to the fact that these operators are going through the most challenging trading conditions they've ever had. And that, you know, the days of just purely storytelling and flavours and fun bits and, you know, why don't you list us?
29:38But you've got to think about their GP. You've got to really, you know, you're often a sort of a counsellor to them of, you know, what a challenging time it is for them. And, you know, the important thing is to listen and be on their side and support wherever you can, rather than to, you know, shove your brand down their throat, which I'm afraid, you know, has happened for a long time. So, yeah, you know, being a sort of a real partner to your customers rather than just trying to sell them. But from a consumer perspective, though, I think there was some, again, some good numbers to think about.
30:11I think the fastest growing drinking occasion at the moment is 3 to 4 p.m. on a Saturday. It used to be 9 to 10 p.m. It used to be the most popular time to drink. That shifted. People are drinking earlier. We know that. And that's changed the dynamic a little bit. people are wanting to do things later in their evening that are not drinking related. They want to get up the next day and not feel like crap. All of that's going on. At home consumption as well has been on the rise pretty much year on year since COVID and is very, very high. It looks like it is sort of plateauing a little bit as people are going back maybe to the trade.
30:57But give me your views on that. again from a bigger business perspective. On behalf of the big companies, what's really clear from our work with bartenders is exactly what Tristram is saying. Bartenders want brands to come and be genuine partners to offer ways to the bars to create footfall and create increased sessionability. So I want customers to come into my bar and I want customers to stay longer and sell more. Knowing that my whiskey is distilled twice or my gin as a heather as a botanical is not going to do that. Offering unique serves, offering entertainment, it all comes back to what we said almost at the beginning for me, which is consumers have a mental share of their wallet for entertainment.
31:44The pub has to justify why they're going to spend that much. It might be brilliant food. It might be the rise of sort of augmented darts and those sort of gaming-type places. It is so expensive now that you have to justify why people will go. And big brands are missing a trick, in my opinion, by not helping the on-trade as much as they should. And allowing smaller brands who can offer a more personal, you know, you don't have a faceless national account management. You might have the founder coming to your bar and talking to you about the brands. that's where the big brands are missing out losing that personal relationship with bartenders and we need them and they need us but somehow that's been lost over the years in favor of cost cutting it's the biggest opportunity one of the biggest opportunities for challenges and the entree go in and help solve the problems they're all facing be on their team you know this is where the reactivity of small brands can genuinely change the face of like what do you make week on week not just a retro not just a occasional visit from an account manager of like genuinely changing we're sort of no secret we're looking at draft cocktails we have a terrible reputation but a huge opportunity to for people to start a cocktail stay on cocktails have a better time have quick service make the pub's lives easier the average span of a bartender last year or something was six weeks in london the rotation was crazy fast and so how are you solving the problems in vodka it might be how are you you know premiumizing a vodka serve and making people feel good about a sustainable choice in sapling can do that in lucky saint how are you keep how are you capturing the people that aren't drinking and making them stay have a good time feel part of a connected social occasion like you say on draft we'll do that all these opportunities that we can be so quick to address and to help with that big brands right now because they are in chaos and they're having the difficulties it's down the list it can be top of the list for a startup and that you've got to pick places as a small brand where you can win and i do believe the trade is one of them and that's i guess it's a really interesting point because that in itself will start to bring consumers back, right?
33:49And I guess you could say, well, if consumers don't want to drink anyway, if consumers don't want to spend their money on alcohol, having a cocktail in a draft might not bring them back, right? And because they want to do different things, they want to go to do their spinning class instead of going to the pub, right? So I get the point and say, we need to make pubs, we need to help pubs, we need to help bars to attract more consumers, to be the place where consumers want to go. But that sense of a bigger picture of younger consumers not actually going to the pub in the first place. How do you reconcile that?
34:25So I think there are, it's a responsibility of pubs that brands can support of making that first time, those occasional experiences for people who don't get that often phenomenal. You know, it's nothing like, there's an exact parallel in our category. If the first time you pay four pounds for a ready to drink cocktail, which is twice as much as everybody else, is a bad experience, you've killed the category and their experience they won't come back great pubs can make that first experience not intimidating not queuing 20 minutes for a margarita for example might be one of those having great entertainment experience having if you're not drinking phenomenal non-alc options that first time through the door how do you make it brilliant brilliant food brilliant brands brilliant experience that i think is what will keep people coming back and keep people engaged with the category but pubs that are you know underloved undersupported aren't adapting and bringing in the changes that the consumers who are going to walk through that door need, they will struggle.
35:14But you look at great brands that people would be proud to be associated with and to join the first time. You look at the Devonshire. No one would have said 15 years ago that you could have one of the biggest social media pubs on pouring Guinness nicely and the guy charming the pants off you in every interview, right? But it's so well run. The food's incredible. The service is incredible. The level of thought and detail and support from brands in that is unbelievable. So you can win in pubs. And you mentioned social media and finding those moments of virality is what helps pubs and helps brands.
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35:49I mean, the phenomenon splitting the G on Guinness. Now that's not a Diageo move. In fact, they would probably actively push against that from a responsible drinking point of view. That has caused more people to want to come to the pub and drink Guinness than any smart advertising campaign. I mean, pub, people are looking for moments for their own little 15 minutes of fame and enjoyment. And what better place to do that than the pub? They just need to offer the experience. But Guinness is another great example of they were sort of a typical type of consumer and they went, well, what are we missing?
36:22And the rise of both genders drinking Guinness is amazing. It's like sales for women in Guinness is up like 25 % or 50%. It's ridiculous that of going, right, let's look outside the tunnel vision of who this is for and go welcome everybody in. You know, I'm sure there's something in pubs for that as well. Yeah. And I'm very conscious of four men talking about the future of alcohol from a masculine point of view is not a great look. But I think it's be silly to ignore it. Pubs, beer, whiskey has all inherently been draped in masculine codes for a long time. and that is you know after after a while and how the world shifts and culture changes that's not appealing for a lot of consumers both younger and older um i did see a stat as well that said founders of alcohol brands something like 16 percent are women founders of non-alc brands 48 huge difference just in you know that stat should probably tell you enough um And the pubs in particular, we were on pubs, do they need to kind of shed a little bit of the kind of masculine image?
37:35Did whiskey need to shed the masculine image? Did the incrementality to the category of being able to bring different, you know, to bring women in to the category? Surely that is just a massive opportunity that all brands have the potential to think differently about. It's a fascinating question. I'm going to ask this specifically on whiskey. Because for the last 10 years of the industry, the amount of times I've heard we need to bring more women into the whiskey industry. The way you don't do that is by changing the fundaments of what you are. Johnny Walker tried Jane Walker for a while. Whoops.
38:14Hard to do it badly. You know, the beer industry for many years did pink it and shrink it. Yeah, shrink it and pink it. Now, you just raised a fantastic example of Guinness there who have not changed their product. they've tried in the past what they've done is just make it socially relevant it started to show up in places where women and younger consumers will happily drink it what they haven't tried to do is make a guinness light or throw away the associations with rugby and enjoying that i don't believe the way that alcohol will grow is by changing what it is it just needs to start to show up in the world of whiskey for example monkey shoulder yeah has broken away from all of those classic stuffy, if you like, queues of whiskey.
38:58It's still a really good, robust whiskey. It's not lighter. It's not necessarily easier drinking. Jack Daniel's Jim Beam bourbon is a good example of a more unisex whiskey category. But it hasn't stopped trying to be a whiskey. It's just started to appear in different ways and different serves. It's quite simple. Yeah. Yeah, it's building worlds, inclusive worlds, isn't it? And going to building visuals and all of that stuff and semiotics and experiences that are more appealing to everyone versus... Gin for many, many years was associated as a woman's drink. Yes. When the gin revolution happened, it didn't try and actively target men.
39:40It just appeared in different serves with different flavors that would be universally appealing. That's how whiskey, that's how beer, that's how pubs will win. Make it universally appealing. rather than trying to specifically say we need less of this person and more of that person. Yeah. I mean, RTD is a great example, right? If you're looking at the future of alcohol, obviously biasly, I would say we're looking at it, right? RTD, it is a massively female dominated category. And if you think the future of booze is going to be decided by four men in a podcast studio or the similar amount in a boardroom of 100 % representation, you're going to get it wrong.
40:14I mean, look at where the spends are going into categories where women dominate. Yeah, definitely. Just thinking, just shifting lanes to at-home consumption. So Moth, I guess for a long time, it felt like that idea of kind of the beauty of Moth. You could bring this kind of very high level cocktail into your home and have that type of experience. And that's worked really well. Obviously on the go, big, big opportunity as well. How are you seeing that at-home moment shift, that consumption shift? Yeah, I mean, first Moth rolled into Waitrose first of February 2021. So we rolled into at-home consumption at an all-time high.
40:53So I think it is interesting for us to watch that shift. The expectation is the moment lockdown restrictions and everything left, that would tick off a cliff and it really hasn't. So I think the at-home opportunity has stayed where we thought it would be and it's grown much more than we thought it would be. I think for us, we did a spectacularly unhelpful bit of data research. We were like, let's interview loads of customers, It was like four figures, loads and loads. How do you drink moth? A third of people within two hours of purchase from the can. And most of RTD, outside of moth, 90 % of RTD consumed within two hours of purchase.
41:25Super impulsive. RTD is the third most impulse category in grocery after sandwiches and water. Like it really is. Moth is very much bucking that trend because a third of people drink it on the go. A third of people pour it in a glass, no ice at home. A third of people dress it up like the real cocktail that it is. And then you think, brilliant, a third, a third, a third. What on earth are we supposed to do with that data? But I think it does highlight the occasions we cover. And I think for us, we also have a DTC, so a website. And for people who want a fridge full, there's an opportunity there for us to be now the biggest DTC cocktail brand in the UK.
41:56But at-home consumption, I think it's a symptom of so many things. It's a habit from COVID. It's the cost of a pint and going out, what that means. Waitrose said that they realized the recession was ending when recovery was getting better, when Waitrose basket spends were going up against the market because people were trading down from dinner out, drinks out, to spending the luxury that they had in Waitrose. And I think we are a symptom of if you want that bar experience and we think we can help the trade and be a part of that as well for when you are out there, but when you want to have something at home that's not as expensive as a night out, you can still go to quality.
42:30That didn't necessarily used to be an option. The other bit in Spirits, which is so exciting, is the at-home mixology during COVID made us all better bartenders. And so for the hangover or not of that means that people are better educated on spirits, their collections better, they know what they're doing a bit more. The issue is they're still time poor and people going back to the office and having less time means that there's still a place. Yeah, I think that's right. And the other thing just that you mentioned there, the waitress example is a good one because it just shows in your point, Paul, about entertainment.
42:58But it's actually almost more holistic than that, isn't it? It's truly understanding your consumer, your consumer's lives and going, what are the tradeoffs, right? There is less money that people have in their pocket. So what are the trade-offs? What do they want? How do they want their joy and indulgence and entertainment and health and all of that stuff holistically? And seeing where, yeah, moth can compete with going to a pub or I guess, yeah, just looking at the different levels of activities and entertainment that span across. Is that not the big takeout for alcohol brands in general to go, how do we look at this differently?
43:35How do we reframe what we are, who we are, who our competitors are? Is that a big take out from, I guess, this conversation, but also just maybe thinking more holistically? I think there's a couple of things. I think one of the most interesting examples that I'd love some data on is like a live example. We're doing the Valentine's dine-in meal deal with a grocer this year. And that versus going out for dinner. I would love to see as the value of that goes up and the pertinence of people going out for dinner, where in the middle that at home moment matches. is because it's like you can now have a cocktail at home the booze is better than on our options better because it'll be like a lucky saint or a days in the meal deal the food's better because it's more expensive and versus dinner out that i mean what a perfect mapping of the at home special occasion where you surely you're going out yeah yeah versus well no actually i'm gonna have this at home so is there's an attitudinal piece there but i think you're right there is a wider point of are you listening to consumers and you meet them where they are yeah um and i think if you think every single person drinks whiskey and it killed on the moor you know with hey not you're Do you know what?
44:33Sometimes I don't. I'll let you into a secret. If you think that's where your consumer is, you're missing the mark. And I think this is where Hennessy gets it right and others get it right of, are you listening? Are you just listening to a boardroom for men? Or are you actually listening to a consumer? Are you seeing where people are drinking it? And then you can respond and be relevant. That relevancy piece is silky. Do you know what I worked on? I was very lucky to work on Peroni for a couple of years. Beautiful beer brand. I came up with a model. We called it Dave and Dante. Dante was the consumer that Peroni thought it was targeting.
45:06East London, super hipster. That guy wouldn't touch. Peroni was someone else's barge pole. Dave from Burnley, who works really hard and earns enough to be able to afford a slightly more expensive price point and wants to show to his colleagues that he's reached a point in life. And yeah, a little bit of that Italian sunshine in a pint. All of the alcohol brands, particularly for the big players for so long, have targeted that real 1 % niche with messaging and with comms, which just often doesn't reflect the lives they live. get close to your consumers listen to them understand what they want and then category agnostic we'll see growth if we keep kidding ourselves it's men in kilts that drink whiskey it's only Dante in East London who drinks Peroni then yeah we'll decline and we'll have ourselves to blame for it it's just and no and no are really good at it they know where the consumers are they know what the occasion is but TiVo like you said they know what they are it's a very accurate like consumer relationship I would say it's a little bit like the traditional kind of aspirational design target isn't it and i think that's where the kind of dante viewpoint is let's paint the vista of what you can be what your consumer could be what they want to be i i maybe want to be an east london hipster drinking peroni i'm not but i would like to be i mean that actually i you know we do a lot of positioning work that in itself is changing the way you build brands is completely changing because consumers are much more aware much more intelligent in terms of how brands are built and can kind of see through that stuff so that's a big learning for for alcohol brands in particular right we need to burst our bubble yeah we all the big companies are based in london all of our creative agencies are based in london if we meet consumers they're all in london london is so different to the rest of the uk in so many ways that increasingly you know and even i don't want to get into politics it's too controversial but almost being a brand that looks right for London makes you wrong for everywhere else almost you reach that point so I think again brands need to work out who their consumers are and come to them versus painting these unattainable images which perhaps 20 years ago in marketing works but now we all know too much and are a bit too smart yeah that model is is broken for sure how just on a you know from an insight perspective you know classic insight how do you how do you get that into a business well i think and i know this song trister will certainly agree with for me insights begin at the bar or there's no such thing as insights people anyone who works in this industry is an insights person and we can go to the pub or we can go to the bar we can have a chat with a bartender and you can really learn what's happening and what's hot or the flip to that is you can go you know back to the town where you grew up and speak to local people we're all we're all insight people go out talk listen learn it's it's brands that have that have done that often organically they don't need big thousands of pounds on consumer research they don't need to employ people like me sadly um but they get it because they spend time with the kind of people they're selling to um every day that we're reading a report in the office about what consumers are like versus going out there and looking is a waste of time for me we've predominantly focused this conversation across the UK, Moth is pushing into the US.
48:34Just a light touch on differing consumer mentality across the RTD cocktail opportunity or in general in terms of view on drinking US versus UK, Rob? Yeah, I think the competition in the UK, we are very shielded here because the big player in the US is not sat in this room, it's THC. And so if you're talking about consumers and price point and share of entertainment and share of, whatever it is there's a whole new world in the us of thc and that's a serious competitor especially for the younger generation and so i think there are learnings in the us that big brands and alcohol needs to learn and that we can take to ourselves if you've got to compete against thc and other options and so what is it that means what's alcohol superpower what does it do better than everything else and so learning from that making alcohol functional yeah it's the healthy option No, I think, but genuinely, I think learning from how you convince consumers to be loyal and engaged and in love with alcohol brands versus THC and THC will be a global learning, whether it's legal in the UK or as well.
49:35I also think it's, you know, 50 countries. It really is very different. And we're not in all of them. And so I think what you see in Boston versus what you see in LA is very different. But I think the competitor landscape is miles ahead. The competitor outside the category is miles ahead. but the consumer is more conscious than ever about what they're putting in their bodies so for us the premiumization the ingredient transparency the what am i drinking that really is um a huge part of what we're doing in the us can i just build a build on that you know you mentioned thc and clearly the way the wind is going there is a lot more positivity and acceptance towards cannabis and alcohol that you're hearing from governments now now i think it will come to the UK in time, that sort of legalization.
50:23What the big companies need to be doing is lobbying and talking to the government and talking to NGOs about why alcohol has a role in life. Because THC has a level of permissibility in the States that alcohol is struggling with. So we can get ahead of that by working with the government. At the moment, alcohol is being really demonized, whereas things like THC, I mean, who'd have thought microdosing magic mushrooms would be healthy all of a sudden? Certainly wasn't 20 years ago when I was doing it. That's another story. Alcohol needs to get back on the front foot rather than just being so apologetic when it talks to governments and so forth.
51:07Because as part of a balanced diet drunk in moderation, there's no problem with alcohol. But somehow we're apologizing even for that at the moment as an industry. Also, the rise of THC, obviously, CBD a little bit more here, the likes of Trip. The world merges, doesn't it? The categories blur. I'm sure people are choosing a moth versus a Trip, right? and at different times of the day. Energy drinks in general are also starting to creep into that space from a consumer. You know, you've got, particularly in the States, brands that have been built recently like Alane, new, really kind of vibrant, aesthetic, fun, tapping into all that stuff that we've talked about today that some of the successful alcohol brands are doing.
52:00The world is becoming blurred, no? Yeah, I think the lines are blurring. I mean, the day that Dunkin' Donuts launched an alcoholic RTD is the day the lines are blurred, right? And that's the reality we live in. You know, there's a Sunny Delight seltzer in the US, the lines are blurred. And I think that presents opportunities as well for new occasions for, but also, I mean, you look at when we started, the big brands that Moth looked at as for inspiration, you know, it's five spirit brands. The world that we look at to learn things from, to be inspired from, to see where success can come from, it's spirits.
52:31It's why, it's spirits. It's now Tilray snapping up RTD brands like they're going out of fashion in the US. And so I think, you know, it's those lines blurring. It's still an occasion where people want to have an experience. And alcohol has a massive role in that. But being apologetic and not being brand forward and not trying to really engage with consumers, you could lose that. Yeah. You could lose. Yeah. But I feel optimistic. I think we can. There's a reason and a purpose for us. But I think, you know, being clear with your consumer and being joyful about it. There's nothing wrong with that.
52:59I think that's a really big point. the good news stories and the good experiences, I think challenges have a huge role for that. We'd love to see the big guys get involved too. Well, the big guys need to because the big guys are making out as though it's the end of the world. You know, recent, I don't know the lady, so I'm not going to comment on her personally, the CEO of Diageo, one of the main reasons that she stepped down was she didn't inspire confidence in shareholders. And we're still talking about it as though it's doom and gloom. Honestly, I think one of the biggest mistakes, the big players made was assuming that everything after COVID would continue to grow at the pace we've seen.
53:37Now that it's actually settling back down to where it ought to be, we're making out so it's the end of the world and it's not. Diageo and Heineken have both lost their CEOs in the past six months. Both of these companies were famous for probably the most brilliant brand builders and the most brilliant people in the industry. Over time, the industry became overly serious and frankly decided to take itself a little bit too seriously. This is a category where people want to have fun. When's the last time Heineken stopped sponsoring the Champions League? Wow. And that was a property which for many, many years made them the most popular beer brand internationally.
54:24I mean, you know, those brands represent within their respective categories 30 to 40 % of the share globally. So yeah, frankly, if volumes are down, we have to look at the big players because however brilliant it is that we have the likes of Moth coming and being these huge success stories, we need the Gordons and the Tanquerays and the Smirnoffs to be in growth for the overall health of the industry. Thinking about the future then, um tristan if we're having this podcast in five years time and we're all slightly uh got less hair i imagine and and it's slightly more gray what are we talking about what are we talking about at five years time around some of the big shifts the trends in the industry well anyone that can tell you that with any kind of real confidence is full of yeah um give it a go but i think i'm Look, I'm generally just, I can't help it.
55:19I'm very, very positive about the future that alcohol and alcohol drinks will pay in society. It's so deeply ingrained into every part of what we do, how we enjoy ourselves, how we relax, how we see our friends. I don't think really it's going anywhere. You'll hear all sorts of new trends come in and come out, as there always have been. And that's what keeps everything exciting, because it's genuinely an industry where you can innovate and you can innovate very successfully and become big quite quickly in, you know, in a brilliant, enormous global industry, which I don't think you can do in as many industries if you think of other sort of equivalent industries.
55:59So I think that from my side, that opportunity to challenge, to innovate, to bring consumers on a journey with you makes it such a special industry to be in. I'm very bullish. In answer to the question, I simply don't know. I'm definitely not someone that thinks that no and low is going to die. I think that no and low is only going to boom. We're being fed health like nothing else. and that will continue to play a bigger role in drinking occasions. But yeah, I genuinely don't think I could tell you what's going to happen in five years. We just got to make sure we're at the forefront of it and taking all the most exciting brands on that journey with them.
56:41Rob, what does Moth look like in five years? Hopefully you can tell me that. Yeah, I mean... Or the ambition. I think some things will change, some things won't. I think product quality being at the centre of what we do and the customer being at the centre of what we do should never change. if that if that goes wrong in five years we probably won't be here i think broadening the opportunity the range for getting there are drinking occasions moth currently doesn't serve i think there's an opportunity there i think i would love to see us build the trade and to be a part of the solution there so i would love to see our on trade business really thrive i'd like you know i'd love to see people in the way that when we launched can cocktails they had a reputation issue and we're doing our best to fix that draft's got an even worse reputation i'd love to be part of fixing that.
57:23But I think, yeah, I think it's really interesting you talk about the success of no and low and that growth. You know, in Spain and Germany, as Paul said, it's at 15%. I could see the UK getting to that but I don't think that's that drastic a revolution. It's just catching up with the rest of Europe. I think, yeah, so I think the future is probably convenience, quality, brands that you still want to be part of and be proud to take home to meet the parents as it were. But I think change is going to happen. I do think there is change coming and I think it's going to be drinking less and drinking better.
57:53Paul? I think since cavemen first realised that their bread, if you left it to ferment, would have an interesting effect, from the goat herd have picked up fermented juniper berries, alcohol through prohibition. That's seed lip, isn't it? Alcohol has always survived in one form or another. It is a phenomenally complex category. And you can never really talk about alcohol being up or down because if we talk about RTD, absolutely booming. If you talk about agave, absolutely booming. There will always be pockets of growth and decline. For me, the two biggest influences on the future of alcohol, and maybe we reconvene in five years, are government and regulation.
58:39The more markets go dark, the more, if you like, sort of nanny state type behavior with the alcohol industry makes it harder and harder. And then the second piece, going back to what we said earlier, is when you have big companies owning 30 % of global market share, if they write themselves, if the new CEO for Diageo comes in and sets a new path based around brand building, based around giving quality and entertainment to consumers, it could absolutely boom. I think it's interesting, Patel. I've got a lot of respect for Dave Lewis. The stuff he did at Tesco is absolutely incredible. I think you actually look at some of the comms that came out of Tesco at that time is exactly that.
59:21It was heavy brand building, investing a lot with their advertising agency BBH. And I think if that is the path, I think hopefully we sit here in five years time and it feels a bit of a different story. And there's good growth and there's brilliant brand building and brilliant innovations and people feeling more confident would be a good place to be. But you're right. I think the opportunities at the moment are very interesting and they lie within brands and businesses taking a different approach, thinking truly consumer first, thinking customer first, understanding what consumers desire, demand and how that shifts.
59:56that is uh all we have time for actually brilliant nuance rich conversation uh and i really thank you for for coming on a couple of big takeouts for me which you guys have talked about so eloquently um firstly that point about getting your head out of the category right is it is a really big one thinking of of yourself as just an alcohol brand is probably a little bit linear is probably almost It's a bit of old fashioned in terms of how brands are built these days. You think about yourself as an entertainment brand, as an indulgent brand. Who really are your competitors? Is it other alcohol brands or is it greater than that?
1:00:38And really thinking about that allows you to kind of position and work out how to engage consumers in a different way. And that second point, I think, plays into that. The alcohol industry is fantastic. This apologetic way of talking about it that has been part of it for so long needs to be stopped. Because there should be real pride and excitement and energy into where the alcohol industry can go. And the challenges are doing that. Rob's point was a really good one. The opportunity there is shown by challenges. But how can we do that at a wider level, I think, would be my message to some of the big corporations.
1:01:18be brave be creative and hopefully we'll see them to to do that again thank you paul thank you tristan thank you rob it's been a fantastic conversation that was you me and cpg thank you for listening
From the publisher
Is 2026 The Year Alcohol Roars Back?
The headlines spell the end for booze: Executive departures, decline, doom.
The true story? It’s much more nuanced.
In pockets, alc is flying. Gen Z participation is up. Spend is up. Dry Jan was the 'wettest' since 2014 according to The Times.
What’s clear - growth is up for grabs - if brands get it right.
Our latest pod challenges the doomsayers with a dose of confidence.
Last episode, we looked at the future of drinking through the no & low lens (thanks to Botivo’s Imme Ermgassen and Club Soda’s Laura Willoughby!)
This time, Booze fights back with an elite corner: MOTH Drink’s Rob Wallis, Paul Thomas, formerly of Diageo, Asahi and Suntory, and Tristram Coates of GHF.
This episode covers why:
- Alcohol brands need to get their fun back
- Premiumisation has become too prevalent
- ‘Share of entertainment’ is the new ‘share of throat’
- Brands are missing a trick by not supporting the on-trade enough
We hope you enjoy listening.
Paul Thomas: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-thomas-8b903025/
Tristram Coates: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tristram-coates-9014151a5/
Rob Wallis: https://www.linkedin.com/in/%F0%9F%8D%B8-rob-wallis-162801113/
Jamie Holtum: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamie-holtum-85b79634/
Haines: https://www.haines.partners/




