The International Pressure That Led to the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

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2:34The deal was announced after days of negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Egypt, and builds on a 20-point peace plan for the region, released by U.S. President Donald Trump last month. If Hamas rejects the deal, which is always possible, they're the only one left. Everyone else has accepted it. But I have a feeling that we're going to have a positive answer. But if not, as you know, maybe you'd have more full backing to do what you... The Israeli cabinet was meeting to approve the deal Thursday night. But negotiations about what comes next are set to continue in the coming days. And it's still unclear whether the ceasefire will lead to a lasting peace.

3:15More than 67 ,000 people in Gaza have been killed, 20 ,000 of whom are children, according to the Hamas-run Health Authority. And a UN-backed body declared famine in Gaza in August. Of the 250 hostages Hamas took in its October 7th attack, 48 were still being held, and 20 are believed to be alive. For the average person, it is a day of cautious optimism about what the future may hold, relief that this devastating two-year war may be coming to an end. But also, I would say, a day of solemnness because there has been so much destruction inflicted in the last couple of years. Jumana Bersechi is Bloomberg TV's Middle East correspondent.

4:03So many people have died. You're talking about 90 % of the Strip being uninhabitable at this point. So there are still lots of questions about what happens in the day after. And ultimately, the bigger question for all of this is about whether these two potentially future states can actually coexist and live side by side.

4:31I'm Sarah Holder, and this is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, I sit down with Jumana Bersechi, along with Fariz Al-Ghul, who grew up in Gaza and covers the territory from Canada today, and Galit Aldstein, who covers Israel's government from Tel Aviv, to discuss how this deal between Israel and Hamas was brokered, what makes it different from past agreements, and whether it could set the stage for a permanent ceasefire.

5:04Jumana Bersachi, Faraz Al-Ghul, Galit Altstein, thank you for being here. We're talking on Thursday afternoon in New York, Thursday night in Israel and Gaza. Jumana, walk us through the high-level terms of this agreement. President Trump put up a post on Truth Social in the middle of the night around 2 a.m. local, saying that both Israel and Hamas had agreed to phase one of the peace deal. And on the back of that, that would secure the release of the hostages, 48 of them in total, 20 of them thought to still be alive in exchange for about 2 ,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. Now, alongside that, Israel, per phase one of the agreement, would agree to withdraw to a pre-agreed line known as the yellow line per the peace plan that would still keep Israel in control of around 53 % of the Gaza Strip.

5:59Alongside that, it would also facilitate the passage of humanitarian aid, much needed within the Gaza Strip. So a huge step from a diplomatic standpoint, but again, still just phase one of this 20-point plan. And at this point, there was no reference about some the longer-term questions that still are outstanding vis-a-vis governance, full Hamas disarmament, the extent of IDF withdrawal. The first phase of the plan aligns with Trump's vision by securing the release of the Israeli hostages who are alive. Hamas in the past had refused to discuss this possibility or option of releasing all the living Israeli hostages.

6:44But this time, it is different. This time Trump's plans enjoy backing and support from the world including the Arab and Muslim countries particularly including Qatar and Turkey. Those are the two countries that have a good relationship with Hamas and where Hamas leaders usually stay. This was one of the reasons why Hamas came to agree on this and let's not forget the timing and the situation in which the plan was presented. It comes as Israel went ahead in its plan to take over the Gaza city, which is the main stronghold of Hamas. After two years of war, Hamas has been losing on a daily basis in terms of manpower and weapons.

7:35So it was being weakened. Also, let's not forget that Hamas In the south of Gaza Strip, where most of the displaced people are staying there, Hamas had faced increasing challenges from militias and armed groups that are backed by Israel, as well as clans. For the past two weeks, Hamas had been fighting with some clans in the south of Gaza Strip, and this adds more pressure to Hamas. And Galit, you know, there have been other ceasefires brokered and broken over the course of this war. Are there signs that this agreement and this ceasefire is different? Yes, I would say that there are. First and foremost, in this case, Israel is getting all the hostages back, both the living and dead hostages.

8:27And that's a very big deal. And that wasn't made possible until this deal came through. I think that also there's never been an agreement to a comprehensive deal that we still need to see if can be realized fully. And at the same time, there's always been talk of partial deals, temporary ceasefires. And this time, what's different is the fact that all the hostages are coming back right away. And the fact that there is a sort of horizon, even if it's not 100 percent clear, on what the next steps are supposed to be. Galit, at this point in the war on Gaza, Israel has become increasingly isolated on the global stage.

9:09Its economy has been damaged. What kinds of pressures has Israel been under to end this war? And what does this agreement say about Israel's position? So this is Israel's longest and most expensive war in its history. The costs have many faces. I mean, one very major factor in the costs of this war has been the extensive use of reserve forces. So this has been a very big burden on government finances. And to afford this usage of reserve forces and also other military expenditure, Israel has had to raise a lot of debt over the last two years. Last year, we saw a record-breaking borrowing spree that the Israeli government went on.

9:55Now, while Israel still has pretty good access to international markets and has very deep-pocketed local market, the costs are pretty high as this adds up, not just now, but obviously also moving forward. Another thing that's been impacted, and this is obviously connected, is Israel's growth rate. So Israel has been slumping in its growth rate for the last two years. And this year doesn't look very promising either at this stage. So we're seeing a sort of contraction of the economy. We're seeing a drop in GDP per capita. I will also say that in terms of the Israeli population, in comparison to what they were used to before the war, it's been a big change.

10:42There were many new taxes that were imposed. There were many cutbacks on social services, on civilian expenditure by the government. So everyone is feeling a difference in their standard of living now versus what they were used to before the war. How much is this an economic question versus one of international pressure to stop this war? So I think the international pressure and the economic pressure are in a way connected. The Europeans were threatening to sanction Israel economically. And that was a pretty serious threat if it were to be carried out. And I can also tell you that in terms of local businesses who rely on exports to Europe and elsewhere, there was very much a growing concern that even if countries or governments haven't yet sanctioned Israel in Europe, for example, then private companies were reluctant or starting to be reluctant to do business with Israel.

11:39So to that end, I would say that it was more about, you know, international pressure and Trump putting all his weight behind this proposal. But it wasn't disconnected from economic pressures, mainly from Europe. We talk about, you know, war fatigue, about the economic pressures, about the pressures coming through from the international community with so many nations around the world just a couple of weeks ago pushing for Palestinian statehood. But I would also add one more thing, which is the last time the ceasefire elapsed in March of this year, the situation politically in the region for Israel was different.

12:15And since then, what you have seen is a war with Iran that has diminished the capabilities of the Iranian regime, probably not administered the fatal knockout that President Trump has said it has. But ultimately, what you have seen is a severe diminishment of what their military capabilities can offer. You've also seen a similar kind of dismantling of Hezbollah as an entity in Lebanon and the installation of a Lebanese government that's more pro-West and more pro-U.S. And of course, you've seen the deterioration of Hamas and their own capabilities, in addition to a lot of pressure from the U.S.

12:58administration to control the Houthis. And so if you think about it from a regional perspective, Israel has managed to inflict quite heavy blows on some of their regional adversaries as well. Coming up, as negotiations continue, what it would take to broker lasting peace.

13:21Hey, everyone, it's Emily Simpson and Shane Simpson from the Legally Brunette podcast. Each week, we're bringing you true crime through a legal lens. Whether you want all the facts on the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, or you still need to wrap your head around the ditty verdict, we're breaking it all down step by step. And we're not just lawyers, we're also husband and wife. It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes. Listen to Legally Brunette on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels, where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made.

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15:55Thursday's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas follows two years of war in Gaza. Past attempts to broker peace and pause fighting have failed to hold long term. But international pressure, combined with the mounting humanitarian and economic toll of the war, have brought Israel and Hamas to a point where they could agree to the first steps of a more comprehensive agreement. I asked Jumana Bersechi, who covers the Middle East for Bloomberg, about the key turning points that led to these negotiations. I think what's become apparent from this process, and this isn't a surprise to anyone, but President Trump is transactional by nature.

16:34And earlier on, on Bloomberg Television, one of our colleagues was speaking to the deputy foreign minister and was asked about President Trump's role in the process and was given a lot of credit for it. And she actually said he is focused on the endgame. He's less focused on the means of getting there, i.e. he is transactional. He wanted to get to this end result. I think what became apparent from all of this is also the state of the relationship that President Trump enjoys with some of his Arab Gulf allies as well. If you look back at the last couple of weeks, things really started to increase the momentum.

17:09There was a lot of a drive and focus out of the U.S. administration after the Doha attack that took place. This was an attack that Israel administers. They were targeting Hamas officials on Doha, but also unprecedented in nature. and at the time, Qatar was irate about the infringement of its sovereignty. And reportedly, at the time as well, President Trump was also very angry that Israel had gone this far and taken this step. The perception from the administration was that perhaps, in this case, Israel had overreached. And so what you've seen since then is a massive diplomatic effort out of Qatar and other Arab states in the region to get in Trump's ear.

17:53I think one big difference this time around is you do have a lot of buy-in from these key Arab states, from the key mediators, from the likes of Qatar. They've thrown their weight and their support behind this plan, and they helped put the plan together the week of the UN General Assembly. Well, one key point in Trump's plan is that Hamas hands over control and administration of the Gaza Strip to another entity. Fariz, do you get the sense that they are willing to do that? Hamas said they are looking for intra-Palestinian talks or dialogue to be held in Cairo to discuss the future of Gaza. In the past and currently, Hamas has always said that they are ready to relinquish power.

18:39But one of their analysts said that while Hamas will not be directly in the government, it cannot leave the entire Palestinian scene or arena. And the sticking point is the issue of Hamas weapons, the disarming and the departure of some of its leaders or officials or members from the Gaza Strip. But I think talking about this issue will be less intense or easier when there is no fighting. For the Palestinian people and for Hamas, the most important thing is that the daily bloodshed and fighting and attacks stop. I talked to people after the ceasefire. Many of them say regardless of the terms and conditions, the most important thing we want to see is that the war stops, the attacks stop, the aid gets in, and we can return to what is left of our houses.

19:44Many Palestinians have been upset and angry at Hamas, and this sentiment has increased during the war. I spoke to some of them who were agreeing that Hamas needs to depart and needs to step down, having been controlling Gaza for more than 18 years, since 2007. And Hamas itself says we are giving up control, giving up ruling. But the question is, to what extent Hamas is ready to give up? Are they just going to stay out of whatever body that will run the day-to-day affairs in Gaza and control from behind the scene? Or will they act as a shadow government? So I think all of these issues need to be tackled in the upcoming rounds of talks, and those talks will not be easy.

20:43The chances of their success is less than the chances of their failure. And Galit, I want to go back to something you said earlier, that this agreement is different because it's comprehensive. It's not partial. It's not temporary. It is a comprehensive ceasefire agreement. What signs are you seeing from the Israeli government about whether the ceasefire will hold? I think that the general thinking and the general sense is that given how invested both U.S. President Trump is in this plan, as well as regional players, I think that that first and foremost gives a sense that this time Israel will not be at liberty, so to speak, to decide solely on its own that, for example, it wants to go back to fighting.

21:34It will kind of need to be more coordinated with the U.S. And while in the past the U.S. has backed Israel, asking to finish the job in Gaza to defeat Hamas, as they called it, that could turn out to be more complicated this time around. At the same time, I would say that things are a bit vague on what happens next. And, you know, Israeli officials have said both on and off the record that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel could see itself going back to fighting. So one, I think, of the main things to look out for moving forward in the negotiations is this issue of Hamas disarming. And there will be a discussion because that's not very clear in Trump's plan.

22:30And maybe it shouldn't be because it was more of a general outline. But what weapons exactly constitute that disarmament? And Galit, you mentioned that the timeline of negotiations and the details are still being worked out. But Jamana, what do we know about what sorts of negotiations will be unfolding in the coming days and over the weekend? Well, in the short term, the immediate focus is on implementing the ceasefire. Once the ceasefire has been agreed to, then per the terms of phase one, Israel would withdraw to this pre-agreed line that would leave it still controlling just over 50 percent of Gaza Strip.

23:07Once that happens, then Hamas would be given 72 hours to return the living hostages, the deceased hostages. The timeline is slightly longer. And so you would think also there will begin a series of operations to retrieve the bodies of those deceased. So that is what's going to happen in the short term. Right after that, there are going to be lots of discussions about the flow of humanitarian aid. It's also been a very thorny topic. Who will be administering it? Where exactly the aid is going to be coming from? How many lorries will be put in or allowed into the Gaza Strip on a day to day basis?

23:42So these are technical details, but extremely important details as well, because the population of Gaza has been suffering from famine and severe malnutrition for several months now. Well, Ferez, we've talked before about this long path to rebuilding that Gaza has ahead of it. If the ceasefire holds, you know, international experts have said parts of Gaza are experiencing famine. Children are going hungry. The U.N. estimates that nearly two million residents of Gaza have been displaced. What does the ceasefire mean in the short term for the people of Gaza? And what are the first priorities for aid once the fighting stops?

24:21The issue of reconstruction of Gaza is still far because it is complicated. I think if Hamas is to stay in power, the reconstruction will be out of reach. In the short term, the Palestinians in Gaza need urgent remedial and intervention programs to mitigate the crisis resulted from the destruction of clinics, primary care centers, schools, the infrastructure, the sewage networks, the water pipelines, and all these issues to ensure there will be no spread of disease, for example, because of the situation. And then, of course, finally, you have the question of who is going to be governing Gaza. Fadis was just talking about the fact that Hamas wants to be involved in discussions around the future, even though they have said that they are willing to give up or relinquish their actual role in government.

25:25But at this point, there is no viable alternative. And in the peace plan, they've talked about setting up this committee of eight political Palestinians. What does that look like in practice? So still, a lot of negotiations have to take place over the next coming weeks and months.

25:46This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all of Bloomberg.com, Subscribe today at bloomberg.com slash podcast offer. If you like this episode, make sure to follow and review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

26:19Hey everyone, it's Emily Simpson and Shane Simpson from the Legally Brunette podcast. Each week we're bringing you true crime through a legal lens. Whether you want all the facts on the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, or you still need to wrap your head around the ditty verdict, we're breaking it all down step by step. And we're not just lawyers, we're also husband and wife. It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes. Listen to Legally Brunette on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Order! Order! Will Keir Starmer last the year? Who's the real opposition on the British right?

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