Critical Darlings: One Battle After Another And Oscar Predictions with David Sims

8:56David Sims:for fab yeah i will say uh the new york times did a whole big deep dive into the the metropolitan opera's like huge financial crisis that it did right now like like basically like three days ago so uh it could use help the the moral of the story is as always support the well because and

9:10Griffin Newman:And yes, it's a real tangent, but like, you know, as someone who follows theater pretty closely, like post pandemic, the rich donor base for like performing arts has completely cratered. And like the rich people were like, oh, we can kind of get away with not having to like do that anymore. And so it is a problem. And I'm glad that there is some some light on that now, because like I would be I don't go to the opera or the ballet. I've been to the Met Opera twice in 20 years that I've lived here. Thank you. but I would I would be sad and I like ambiently knowing that that's happening obviously we need the Met to exist yes it can't be going nowhere the opera is good so I'm glad that at least people are paying attention to the fact that like they are in financial ruin yeah basically

9:51David Sims:I'm not sure has the Jesse Buckley discourse done anything on behalf of cats that we know of

9:57Griffin Newman:I think I think there's there's plenty of cat fans out there I don't I don't think there's a shortage of cat fandom no no they're fine

10:14David!

10:15Griffin Newman:What? This episode, don't act so surprised because it's a familiar friend. Oh, okay. This episode's brought to you by MUBI. Yawn! Just kidding! Comfortable! Secure! We love them! They are a global film company of champions grade cinema, iconic directors, emerging auteurs, always something new to discover with MUBI. Each and every film hand-selected. so you can explore the best of cinema. Nothing more to say, I guess. Wrong! There's a new film coming to theaters. Yep, movie theaters. February 13th, the first Nigerian film ever in official competition again. That's pretty wild. This is a film by Akinola Davis called My Father's Shadow.

10:54Griffin Newman:It was BAFTA-nominated, poetic, tender portrait of a father-son bond framed within the political landscape of 1993 Lagos in Nigeria. it is about a father and two young sons as they journey into and around the vibrantly rendered Nigerian metropolis reckoning with their relationship navigating the city that's in the middle of a democratic crisis written by real life brothers Akinola Davis Jr. and Wally Davis love it brothers co-wrote this groundbreaking feature debut and you've got Sofei Dorisu oh from Slow Horses I love him I hope I'm saying his name right but he's a really good actor and he's the star.

11:36Griffin Newman:It's worth seeing. It's in theaters. It's great to go to a theater. It's in theaters. We love that Mubi puts Mubis in theaters before ultimately ending up on their wonderful platform. Dang right. I'm just looking at some of the stuff they got right now. Die My Love, of course. Yeah. An important watch, a necessary watch for any blankie. La Grazia, the new Paolo Sorrentino movie, which I missed in theaters. good moment to catch up with it the great shall we dance oh the classic the original oh my goodness that's fun like a restoration yeah and look they got a collection called heartthrob Nicholas Cage it's young dreamy Cage well still dreaming to me hey you're very open hearted anyway to stream the best of cinema you can try Mubi free for 30 days at Mubi.com slash blank check that's Mubi.com slash blank check for a whole month of great cinema for free and then go see My Father's Shadow in theaters.

12:32Griffin Newman:Please, thank you for listening. Thank you. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Thank you. Very kind.

12:44Griffin Newman:So this whole, you know, project thus far has been every week we talk about a Best Picture nominee. We have one left, which is one battle after another. I think saved probably the frontrunner for last, although you could make the argument that Sinners last week One battle is the frontrunner. It is, right? Guys! Yeah.

13:01David Sims:Is everyone crazy?

13:03Griffin Newman:I mean, I'm just...

13:05David Sims:It's been a long Oscar season.

13:07Griffin Newman:There's the tides. It is the front runner. I'm not saying that it is. Nothing is guaranteed in this life. No. But it has a very hefty slate of wins in these silly precursors we unfortunately pay attention to. And that is not vibes. That is literally one PGA, one DGA. The people write their votes down and it's the winner every time, basically. Yeah. It is pretty consistently been at the top of everything and is going into Sunday with like a real, real momentum to it. I think there's potential. We'll get into predictions later. I think there's potential that it could kind of lose in some places.

13:42Griffin Newman:I think the potential, right. It's that this race has been so long and people get sick of a frontrunner, right? Like that's always the fear.

13:48David Sims:Yeah.

13:48Griffin Newman:But it is a frontrunner. Sure. Yeah. And re-watching the movie last night as I think both Allison and I did. Yes. It's really good. It's really good. He's on to something that Paul Thomas Anderson. It's one of those, it's to me similar to Oppenheimer and I know not everyone agrees about every single, you know, where it's just kind of like the Oscars can't really pass up on something like that. It doesn't happen that often. You have a major director and a major movie star making a big movie that people saw that got universal critical acclaim that's about stuff that's happening right now. It just doesn't happen.

14:23Griffin Newman:And it's not just about stuff that's happening now. It has somewhat eerily seemed more prescient the more that 2025... It's lined up with current events in a way that... How did they do that?

14:37David Sims:I remember when it came out, someone was pointing out, as if this were kind of widely accepted when I feel like it is definitely not widely accepted, that the film starts in the present day and the rest of it takes place in the near future. And I was like, I don't know that that's definitely the case. I feel like you can make an argument for it, but I feel like part of the reason it feels... When it initially came out, it felt like maybe you could make that argument of the near future is because of the ways the mku the like force in it the kind of like it's sort of ice it's also the military it's also the police um that kind of descend upon the the town backed and cross for like a large part of the the movie they just kill people they you know like they uh they grab people off the streets without any pretense really and you know they shoot alana heimes wig off they do i know yeah like it's Brutal.

15:26David Sims:And you're like, OK, we live in that now. You know, like that is just like how things are like it. So any kind of edge of like, well, we're not there yet went away so quickly.

15:39Griffin Newman:Yeah, completely evaporated. And and I think the one of the strengths of the movie of many strengths is that, like, it's not trying to one to one match like Trump era America. There are weird names and funny, you know, like the Christmas adventures. Like it feels very much of its own world. It's just like reflecting or bouncing off of what we're experiencing. I think if it was doing the opposite, which was like, you know, would be like really trying to map exactly onto what we're experiencing. It would you'd start to see a lot of holes. But like in this case, you can it's more allegorical.

16:16David Sims:Yeah. And I feel like it, you know, like it is based on a book.

16:21Griffin Newman:1990, right? The late 80s?

16:23David Sims:I want to say Vineland takes place in 1980, maybe? Yeah, yeah.

16:28Griffin Newman:1990 book, right. Yeah. Set in the mid 80s.

16:31David Sims:So you have a book that was about a totally different generation of kind of radicalism. And then the present day of it is like Reagan's America.

16:42Griffin Newman:It's the peak of Reaganism. It's set during the 84, like during Reagan's re-election.

16:47David Sims:Yeah.

16:47Griffin Newman:When it's like he's won. those guys those guys

16:50David Sims:yeah one and like they're obviously there's a lot of kind of like throwback DNA to the French 75 in particular right like they have this feeling of like in some ways they're extremely present and then in other ways they just feel like kind of radicals from yeah the 60s and the 70s interestingly a few days ago a writer named Hope Reeves whose parents are both weathermen wrote an opinion piece in the Times being like I really hate how non-specific the activism is in this movie, that it's not grounded to a particular revolutionary worldview. Like, revolution is the cause that all of these characters keep espousing.

17:30David Sims:But that's something I actually appreciated more on this rewatch, is that they do have, especially in the beginning, they are going after migrants, and also anti-abortion. They do have some specific causes. But the idea of activism and the idea of like fighting against the powers that be is like a more general theme, right? Like it kind of it allows that like the particular causes can mutate as time goes on. But that it is about the idea of being a revolutionary.

18:05Griffin Newman:Yeah, I think the complaint that I'm reading the piece and she says like, I really I shouldn't have expected this movie to be a battle cry about a specific thing. Yeah. So it's a little bit on me. So she sort of ignores, you know. She also dings critics for thinking it was a rallying cry. And the headline of Manola Dargis' review in the New York Times uses the phrase rallying cry. So she's being pointed. But anyway. Sure. But I mean, like, I think some people, because Ghetto Pat is kind of like, here, I'm just here to blow things up. You know, like people see the French 75s a little flippant, a little like, what are they?

18:39Griffin Newman:You know, are they just like kind of, you know, cowboys who are just there to have fun? But it's like, to me, very obvious. One, that the movie is presenting to you various modes of resistance, not just the French 75. Like we meet the nuns, we meet Benicio's... Yeah, that's a whole separate thing.

18:53David Sims:Yeah, kind of like my girl. These are all...

18:55Griffin Newman:Of course, Willa is embarking on her own new form of revolution, whatever she wants to be doing. It's not flip... Like the French 70... And I think also like the way that Perfidia's mom talks to Pat, like she's like, you, you know, we don't take you very seriously, sweetie pie. You're a nice boy. She comes from a lineage of this kind of struggle. We are quite serious. She is quite chaotic. We are quite serious and you are clearly like, you know, a well-meaning person along for the world.

19:25David Sims:There's a point where Profidia's mother calls him a stump, which is like the most brutal thing. She's a runner,

19:29Griffin Newman:you're a stump. Yes.

19:32David Sims:Brutal assessment you can get as a person. Yeah.

19:35Griffin Newman:Great performance. One of the many like incredible like two scene performances in that movie. like every actor I mean I think there is some thought in the movie about the way these things are generationally sort of translated and like aestheticized over time like are you just kind of playing the part of this or like back in my day we really meant it and you know and I think that Anderson is you know very much thinking about like not maybe his revolutionary life I don't think he has one as far as I'm aware but like about what he's imparting to his children and what like his generation is imparting to the younger ones and saying like yes you will lose some things but you might gain some new clarity they're like they're there's

20:13David Sims:there's devolution and devolution it's also i think in ways that are very generous it is about being like you have ideals but you are still a movement made up of incredibly fallible people who all have like personal weaknesses and some of whom were not animated with the same kind of like purity of of of belief and some you know like it's a bit of a motley one of the things that i love about perfidia is that she is a character who kind of does simultaneously seems to hold like these kind of like really fervent beliefs and revolutionary ideals but also in like enjoying like the rush of it so much and her own kind of stardom within this movement right like these are all forces that feed who she is and where she what she does uh and and ultimately make her like this really kind of difficult character for all of the other ones to grapple with but i think that's true whenever you meet and you do anything related to activism you meet people some people who are like in it you know because they like to hear themselves talk and you meet some people are in it because they have an enormous like really kind of like idealistic like yeah and some people just came from a background of that and they take for granted that that's what they do and i feel like the movie is good at being like look at this huge spectrum of experiences and reasons why people get

21:23Griffin Newman:involved in this yeah absolutely you know versus the christmas adventurers they're they're mortal enemies who are this, you know, kind of like fossilized crowd, even though some of them are younger, but like, right, like, you know, the whole intention. One of them looks like in Bond. I love it. Yeah, their faces are all good. They speak the language of the internet, because they talk about the haters. Yes, they do. Punk trash.

21:45David Sims:Yes, yes. It's a really good line.

21:48Griffin Newman:It's very funny, but I think it's also sort of telling.

21:51David Sims:Yeah, and I feel like, you know, they're like, their white supremacy, their, like, is built into obviously so much of the action that unfolds and like explicitly built into their movement. But like the end goal of their movement is to prop up their own power, right? Like the whiteness is also part of how they declare themselves superior human beings, right? Like they are just trying to cement, not only do they deserve to have this power, but like this is the world order.

22:19Griffin Newman:But just all the little, the Christmas adventures that I pour over, I've seen the movie several time you know like i think about like all the little lines like they they they love the tracker guy but they would never trust him of course because he's not right you know what they say

22:31David Sims:not homegrown and also not a native son yeah he's like the most native son possible like in in in

22:38Griffin Newman:terms of his background when they're like we have to shut down the chicken fingers they're like i really like those chicken fingers you know like they know like the systems that support the things

22:46David Sims:they enjoy you know the chicken finger company is owned by a christmas adventure it sure is

22:51Griffin Newman:I love all those little details sure yeah it's really funny it's a just I don't know I saw it were you guys at TIFF? when did you see it? I saw it I saw it quite early after you saw it before me I know that for sure I saw it after TIFF at like an empty screening so like no atmosphere right? like you know just kind of like come see one but I was like right okay and I just my jaw was on the floor I had thought because I watching the trailers I'm sort of hit or miss with PTA some things I mean I adore Phantom Thread I think that's one of the best movies of the 2010s it's his funniest movie it's beautiful it's romantic but next down the line is like I have to go all the way back to Boogie Nights you know and I thought that one battle based on the Pynchon aspect and the trailer I was like oh it's gonna be another inherent vice where it's like trying really hard for like weird comedy It's mostly to make PTA laugh behind the camera, blah, blah, blah.

23:52Griffin Newman:But then I started hearing from people like you who had seen it before and they were like, no, no, it's like a kind of a huge epic. Like, it's really great. And I, I, I still went in skeptical because I, I, he has never made a movie like this before. Like, no, not really. Sure. Yeah. The Blood is an epic, but it's of a different stripe. And this, watching it again, I was like, the end of the movie is like legitimately approaching the line of corny. I mean, you know, but in a beautiful way, I think.

24:20David Sims:I mean, that it pulls off that needle drop and we can talk about that in detail. Some people think it doesn't. I think it does. We can talk about it in detail later, but it is definitely like the most kind of sentimental. I mean, like, I love Inherent Vice, but I feel like, I mean, it is funny how many of his movies are about this idea of this kind of like Edenic past that is kind of gone, if it ever existed. But like, you know, like that you are already past the golden era. like things are already kind of like fading. And I mean that in that movie in particular, but like... Like ballet? Like ballet, you know.

24:52Griffin Newman:Or the opera.

24:54David Sims:Or the opera, the golden age in which we all went to ballet and the opera all the time. It is...

24:58Griffin Newman:But we all met at La Scala, right, in Milan years ago. I love to go to La Scala. Just rattling around.

25:03David Sims:I would love to be someone who went to La Scala.

25:05Griffin Newman:I'd love to go to La Scala. Teatro Colon in Buenos Aires.

25:08David Sims:Mm-hmm. All right. But like... He knows opera. I don't know. I mean, like, there's something about the way that this is Pynchon again and is about, yes, like a former revolutionary who's been rattling around just like high off his mind for 15 years now, not believing in anything anymore. But like that ends on a note that is hopeful, I think is like really something. It's a surprise.

25:34Griffin Newman:And I mean, it's a film made by a person who has children and it resonated with me as a parent, obviously. But what other choice does he have or the movie have? You know, like, you have to kind of hope at least that you're, you know, like there's some kind of world waiting for your kids for them to grab or change or, you know. I mean, last year we had Eddington. We had movies that had the more mordant view of like, we might be good. You know, like, you can go in that direction. But no, indeed, One Battle is not, is very like, you know, pointedly not going. And that kind of sentiment from him. look there have been emotional beats in many of his movies but this felt so raw and sort of self referencing in a nice way that i was kind of shocked by it and i you know i i hate to like throw this up as a counter example because like the movies have nothing to do with each other but you look at like what a formerly sort of prickly edgy filmmaker like noah baumbach did when he like went full sentimental with jay kelly which is i think of a horror show i like that movie And I know, I know, I know.

26:38Griffin Newman:But but like PTA, I think he he he does the sort of emotional thing that I don't think this was his intention, but like that gets it sort of across a certain line for the Academy. But does it in his own particular way and just enough and it doesn't overdo it. And I think that's that's that's tricky.

26:58David Sims:It is still a mournful movie because it is very much about the idea that it is almost impossible for people to sustain that forever of youth and that commitment to the possibility of changing the world. There are a few characters who continue to hold that up from the opening French 75 sequence later. You have Regina Hall's character, Deandra. But she's tired. And she's, no, but I mean, that's the thing. It's like her teary face at the end is like, just so heartbreaking because you're also like, you have, yeah, like you are tired. And like, the thing is every single character who gets captured informs, right?

27:42David Sims:Like the movie has enormous, actually, empathy for that. The idea that you as a single person cannot be expected to stand up to the might of the state because there's going to be someone you love. or some vulnerability in your life

27:55Griffin Newman:that can be exploited. And it's a trope of storytelling, of film that like, no, no, no, there are resolute heroes who would never do that. And I think the film is saying, well, I mean, like I rewatching it, I was like, oh God, the scene where the kids are being interrogated about where their friend is and whether she has a cell phone and the person who ends up kind of ratting on her essentially is the non-binary kid with the earring. And I was like, oh, is this PTA kind of being like, I don't think it is. I think he's saying, what would happen if that person had to do Sean had prison? Right. Like, that kid knows they would be in deep, deep trouble.

28:32Griffin Newman:In an interview, PTA said that that actor just also, because they truly were at a school picking kids out of the crowd, and that that actor just popped so quickly, and they were like, do you want to do another scene? Do you want to do... But I think that's absolutely how I felt watching the movie, of just that person has more to lose. Right. I mean, it's the same,

28:48David Sims:you know, like the interrogation of Billy Goat, Howard Somerville, who's so good, Paul Grimstad he's like one of the people who has kept going right like a lot of the other Friends 75 members get killed or end up in prison and killed or turn right but like he he's ready to stand up when it comes to sacrificing himself when the idea of comes to sacrificing your loved ones is like that's when and I think like there is like the movie has so much sympathy for the idea of informing because it is also like you yes like the longer you are in this world the more you accrue loved ones the more you accrue people, you aren't just, like, thinking about yourself as this soldier in this war.

29:28David Sims:You have connections. You are pulling other people in. And that you cannot, like, fault people for having ties, right?

29:37Griffin Newman:And if the goal is one battle after another, you have to, like, live to see another day.

29:42David Sims:And also to pass the baton on to other people, right?

29:46Griffin Newman:And, like, perfidia going to Mexico to, you know, living to slay another day. Like, like, like you kind of understand and you wonder if regina hall might be kind of thinking in the back of her head like perfidia maybe had the right idea you know sure like she got out and she still has the capacity i mean she made one choice to kind of preserve herself which you know the internet has read as sort of selfish and bad characterization and all that but i think again pta is really complicating and humanizing those hero tropes i think also like yes yeah like

30:16David Sims:Like, it's a movie that I feel like even explicitly says, like, you can get older and get selfish. And like, you know, that is just part of...

30:22Griffin Newman:Or you can just be Pat. Yeah. Like, Pat slash Bob. You know, like, just, you know, older and kind of over it and kind of burned out and, like, not really helping anyone out anymore. And, you know, he rediscovers a little bit of heroism, but really all he, you know, what he's doing is protecting his daughter.

30:40David Sims:And even then, he does not actually accomplish... Not much. In the movie, I think, in ways that are delightful. Right. he is not helpful at all.

30:48Griffin Newman:Yeah, I mean, to the extent that he actually affects the action, it is low at the end there. I mean, like,

30:53David Sims:I feel like the biggest thing...

30:54Griffin Newman:Just the brilliance of, like, you know, like, him falling off the roof or whatever. Yes, falling off the roof.

30:57David Sims:I mean, the biggest thing he accomplishes is, like, is getting Benicio Del Toro's character arrested because he's not careful about when he's drinking.

31:04Griffin Newman:He's not very careful. He's not very careful. Or in the sight line of cops. Yeah, they're not police that are working necessarily under, like, Sean Penn's rule. They're just like, oh, that guy has a beer in the car.

31:12David Sims:Wait, can we talk about Perfidia a little bit because I feel like you're right like there was a lot of kind of like back and forth and about I mean beyond just like Tiana Taylor I think just is such a movie star like is just like an electric and I think you can definitely make the case that like the movie never quite recovers that particular energy right when she's gone because she is just such this unique kind of like

31:37Griffin Newman:the mini movie at the start of the movie is incredible right all by itself

31:41David Sims:yeah but I do feel like I really resist the idea that because Profidia makes selfish choices that it's bad characterization. Because I'm like, it is okay for a character to be multidimensional and selfish.

31:54Griffin Newman:She's so obviously suffering from postpartum depression. And it's such a wild thing in the movie that people overlook.

31:59David Sims:People just really... The fact that that was just not part of a discussion.

32:03Griffin Newman:Her whole monologue where she's like, you care about the baby more than me. I don't feel seen. That's like what they give you at the doctor's office. The sheep they give you.

32:12David Sims:It's like in a year which has had other like very conflicted maternal portraits, right? Like Die My Love, which is like absolutely about someone that is dealing with a lot of chaos, you know, in the wake of having a child.

32:24Griffin Newman:Yeah, I'm just thinking about Die My Love just because it's funny. Because it's her going like, what? And then she's like, what baby? And the baby's over. She's like, all right, the baby. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The baby's okay. The baby's fine.

32:33David Sims:The baby's fine. Yeah, but like, yeah, I agree. I feel like it is so explicit that perfidio is dealing with postpartum depression. Right. And like that just like was taken off the table as something that like.

32:46Griffin Newman:It felt weirdly under discussed to me. Yeah. But it's a movie with a ton to discuss. I understand that. Maybe it's just that she's such a incredible badass that then you feel betrayed by the movie, you know, by her, by the choices her character makes. But she's a survivor. Like what she's doing with Lockjaw, you know, manipulating him, you know, like sexually and all that. that's obviously her being a survivor. And then, you know. There is a gorgeous and sad moment where she gets caught in the bathroom by him, and he's basically like, you can keep doing what you're doing. You just have to meet me at this place, whatever.

33:25Griffin Newman:And then she syncs back up with Leo, and they're walking away. He holds on her face. He taps her on the ass. Yeah, and she kind of fakes smiles, and then her face returns to this, like, my life has just changed because I'm now fucking tied to this guy. And it's such a great subtle piece of acting that tells you a lot about what that character is experiencing and feeling. And yeah, the notion that she is underserved by being less than heroic or whatever and an overly sexualizer. Tiana Taylor herself has responded to some of the criticisms about the character, especially the sexualization. Have you know what it's like to be a black woman in the world?

34:05Griffin Newman:She has spoken about it in a way that I certainly can't, and people should seek that out. Because, like, she, you know, she stands by the character and the movie in a way. And I'm like, well, then, okay, good. You know, then I believe you.

34:17David Sims:Yeah, yeah. And the thing is also, when she leaves and she says that thing about, like, this is a new consciousness and all of that. I'm like, I'm sorry, that is so real for someone who is, like, going to be like, I'm going to reposition the language of, like, my activism to defend my personal choices. I'm like, of course, people do that all the time. You know?

34:36Griffin Newman:She knows, you know, yeah, she's conflicted internally. and she's that's how she can justify it to herself. She is casting it

34:42David Sims:as this kind of like this revolutionary choice to be like I'm choosing me first and obviously as time goes by she feels much more conflicted about that choice and I think that the movie is very clear about that. Anyway. Yes.

34:55Griffin Newman:Certainly. I know. I don't mean to say I'm like I'm only grumpy about like I found a lot of the discourse around this movie a little trying but like that's normal for a movie this big a movie this provocative. That means people are watching it. to provoke a lot of reactions that I might disagree with. Of course, it does mean people are watching it, which is great. Because it really spiked when it dropped on HBO Max, you know, because much more people had access to the movie. Sure. Yeah, yeah, no, for sure. But yeah, and you're right. Like, it's like movies like Eddington, or I'm trying to think of like the big provocative movies.

35:26Griffin Newman:Blue Moon, Train Dreams. Well, it is crazy that Train Dreams had virulent discourse. Around Thanksgiving time, it had a... To my surprise. It's a moment in the sun. Yeah, Blue Moon just like, right, E.B. White, he never would be doing that. I don't know. I'm trying to think of what the Blue Moon discourse would be.

35:47David Sims:I mean, that is the most controversial. I mean, I feel like the Blue Moon discourse was just about the height.

35:51Griffin Newman:It's discriminatory to short.

35:52David Sims:Or no, just being like, is this good? Are you kidding me with this?

35:58Griffin Newman:Sort of Ethan Hawke walking around like that. The answer is it is good.

36:11Griffin Newman:David. Yes. Watch this. Watch this.

36:17Griffin Newman:Can you tell me what's going on? I'm trying to hit home. But it's a foolish effort because nothing hits home. Like home cooking. That's true. Oh, boy. Well, it's really tough, man. Wait, Griffin, what are you doing? I'm trying to hit home, but nothing hits as hard as home cooking. I just need a way to beat the winter blues, not get delivery, something kind of unsatisfying. It's much easier if I could choose from maybe 100 recipes every week, cuisines from around the world. Let's see. I have 99 right here on my desk, but that's not 100. And we might have to outsource this job to someone else. How about our friends at HelloFresh?

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37:35Griffin Newman:I've been there so hard. My manner. I love nothing more than when I can impress guests by whipping out a great recipe that I have cooked all by myself for the dinner parties that I throw nightly. And HelloFresh is great for that, but also great just if you want to treat yourself. Ben, any recipes you've been jamming on hard recently? Oh, yeah. Actually, I was just checking out old school barbecue pork sloppy dough. Ooh. That's a super high protein item. Slop it up. Yep. And we mentioned seafood. There is, of course, prep and bake Tex-Mex salmon tacos. That is exciting because I'm on a bit of a seafood diet right now, if you catch my meaning.

38:17Griffin Newman:Seafood, you eat it? No, I'm eating mostly creatures from the sea. So go to HelloFresh.com slash check 10 FM to get 10 free meals and a freeze willing knife. That's$144.99 value. $144.99. On your third box. offer valid while supplies last free meals applied as discount on first box new subscribers only varies by plan that is hellofresh.com slash check 10 fm 1 0 fm

38:54Griffin Newman:so you know given that one battle seems to be a front runner it has won all these precursor awards I was watching it again thinking about like the Oscars in the new era like a different academy all that like to you guys does One Battle feel like a new sort of best picture front runner because like I would say there are some really old fashioned things in there as well as the sort of modernity there is but it doesn't feel kind of like you know similar to I mean look is the like obviously PTA was always a guy that the Oscars kind of patted on the head right and like they respected you know like Boogie Nights take your screenplay nom Magnolia take your screenplay nom Punch Drunk Love don't be weird Fino Thread Best Picture no no no then There Will Be Blood is the moment where it's like oh are they gonna take him seriously but they're you know and they're kind of like wait your turn the Coen brothers made a masterpiece they're winning this time you're still a baby um and right and they've been sort of slowly warming up to him much like they did with Nolan and then Oppenheimer's the moment where they're like good job making a grown up movie like you win Best Picture congratulations yeah And this has that vibe too, but this is a weird movie.

40:01Griffin Newman:I don't see this movie winning 20 years ago in the same, like with the same ease. I don't know. I mean, yeah.

40:07David Sims:It reminds me of when the Coens made No Country for Old Men, which is a movie that I love, which is great.

40:12Griffin Newman:Another movie that came out and got universal acclaim to the point that it was kind of like, is that it? Right, right. Is it over?

40:17David Sims:But you know, it's like, it's both like still very much a Coens movie. It has like some real weirdness in there, but it felt like maybe, I don't know, like it fit more cleanly into like certain genres I feel like into the western and like it has very exciting action you know it has and I feel like that's I mean rewatching One Battle After Another I was like yes this is the same thing it is still very much a Paul Thomas Anderson movie but it is one that fits within a slightly more I would say conventional container in terms of yes being about kind of action and this like sweeping yeah and about

40:51Griffin Newman:fathers and daughters and about you know particularly about a generation reacting to the youth of today. I think that PTA kind of putting all these jokes about, I don't know how to use my phone. I don't know how to ask what a kid's gender pronouns are. That could be so creaky and bad, but he does it in such a sort of subtle and sweet way that I think I would imagine a lot of voters over 50 are like, oh, yeah. Finally something warmly relatable in a PTA movie that also has all of his signature weirdness and style.

41:28David Sims:Right. It's also, it is a movie, at least from Leo's character's point of view, it's a movie about being washed, right? Like, it is a movie about, like, kind of...

41:36Griffin Newman:Chopped on. Being chopped and dunk. He is chopped and dunk.

41:40David Sims:Yeah. Did I get that right? Like, he, you know, is just, like, it's not even that he doesn't want to try a bit, but, like, he's just so aware of all of the ways in which, like, kind of the tide is, like, leaving him behind, right? Like, that... And that he's okay with that, I think, like, ultimately, kind of like, it's not like he's resisting before, but he's kind of checked out, whereas I feel like by the end of the movie.

42:03Griffin Newman:No, the triumph of the movie is he's going to try to use a smartphone. And I really do think, I mean, like, it's one of the moments of the movie, one of the many moments that makes me cry, right, is that he's trying to figure out. Well, he can now because he's not, you know, in so much hiding. Right. I mean, he might as well be like, I used to date Fiona Apple and do cocaine, you know, like.

42:19David Sims:like no I mean like I feel like there is definitely there is definitely some of that

42:23Griffin Newman:I think too he's sort of represents the malaise of just like what it feels like to live in the current moment and to be bombarded by so much shit every single day and just how exhausting that is and how like how easy it is to just like check out yeah 100 % check out from new stuff but also from your old stuff like he's lost the passion for what he used to do if you know we really know how serious he was about any of these causes right like it was clearly very exciting for

42:52David Sims:him and he liked being part of the team but yeah he doesn't he was in love and right yeah but he doesn't remember the revolutionary text what time is it you know like he's got to call the manager

43:02Griffin Newman:of the revolutionary hotline to uh to get through when i first saw the movie i i found that segment where he's like on the phone trying you know like yelling and and in the bathrobe and it felt like oh i was like this is maybe a little too over egged trying to be a little too funny on second viewing i didn't feel that way at all like i felt i felt his frustration at himself yes you know more and yes he's yelling at the guy on the phone but he's really yelling at himself right like i think so he's yelling at himself he's also like he's frustrated by you know people who are maybe you know a little too high on being part of the team versus like he keeps trying to make the emotional kind of like can't you tell that i'm fucked up right like yeah please help me you my daughter my daughter's been taking you know like and the guy's like you should know that's like and this is what is it like you're he said something like sort of space safe space he's like you're you're violating my sound yeah yeah these are noise these are noise triggers right yeah yeah to me the funniest part of that whole sequence which is a very funny sequence is when he keeps saying, I don't know what time it is.

44:08Griffin Newman:And Sergio St. James just says the time. Yes.

44:11David Sims:Yeah.

44:11Griffin Newman:He's like 8.02. Yeah. Because I'm like, he has such clarity. Like he, and he knows what time it is because he has to know what time it is because he's in charge of something that's very like proper and organized and like on anyway, I just think it's such a great little moment.

44:26David Sims:I love like that sequence just because of how many times Bob tries to plug in his phone. Like he gets a charger and like in this like labyrinthine kind of like compound that is like a place like sanctuary.

44:39Griffin Newman:It's like one of those irritating old chargers. You have to like rest it in a cradle.

44:43David Sims:Like he is like shooed away from like four different spots along the way where Bob keeps being like, we have to go. You can't do that here.

44:50Griffin Newman:Sergio. Sorry.

44:51David Sims:Sergio keeps being like, you need to come on. Like this is not the place where you can charge your phone. Keep coming. Keep coming. Yeah. So I feel like, I don't know. Like, I, this is not my favorite Leo performance. I enjoy him in this movie. I always go back and forth on Leo. He's not my favorite actor.

45:08Griffin Newman:I, I, it's a very, it's a Leo, I love the performance. Yeah. I guess my favorite Leo is, I don't know. What's your favorite Leo?

45:15David Sims:I didn't know what my favorite Leo is.

45:17Griffin Newman:My answer was always Shutter Island, which is a movie I adore. And I think he's so locked in.

45:22David Sims:Yeah.

45:22Griffin Newman:I think the answer is probably Wolf of Wall Street.

45:24David Sims:Like that's the most kind of maximum of a big Leo performance.

45:27Griffin Newman:You can ask me if you can. He's so good in that. That's probably the best baby Lena. Also for me is,

45:32David Sims:and you know, it was something I was thinking about, like look at, like out of the best actor nominees this year, four out of the five of them were all like child actors, right? They have all been acting aside from Wagner.

45:44Griffin Newman:Although we don't know.

45:46David Sims:Well, I was like, I looked this up because I was like, and like he like did kind of like find his way into acting into an adulthood. But yeah, you're like, otherwise you have like four.

45:52Griffin Newman:That makes him so much sexier.

45:53David Sims:No, four actors who have been acting since they were children.

45:58Griffin Newman:It's true. and who have basically been, like, I have been plugged into their ethics since they were children. Like, Leo, I guess, the least, like, I didn't watch Growing Pains. And neither did I. Oh, I didn't. But, right, but like, Ethan Hawke, like, I watched, like, White Fang when I was a kid, or whatever, you know, all those little movies he made. Like, Michael B. Jordan, obviously, I watched The Wire and I watched Friday Night Lights and all that. I remember when he was dating Mae Whitman on Parenthood. Sure. Was it Mae Whitman? I'm pretty sure to me. And Timmy, I guess, like I was irked by him on Homeland.

46:29David Sims:Sure. And you watch

46:31Griffin Newman:Love the Coopers every Christmas, right? I can't say I know what that is. It's a Christmas movie he did with Marissa Tomei. And he's an Interstellar because the funniest part of Interstellar is him being like, hey, Dad, what's going on? The farm is, you know, I've made this. And he gets blown up on Homeland. But then it cuts to Casey Affleck because he turned and then Casey Affleck is like, hey, Dad, how you doing? I'm like, but they have not tried to match their voices at all. What happened? Ever since the accident, I talk like this. Exactly. Did the earth get like helium in its atmosphere?

47:02David Sims:But vibes wise, they're both very pointy. Yes, totally. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I feel like the problem is like also as a woman of a certain age, I just like very much imprinted on like heartthrob, like beautiful Leo and like...

47:13Griffin Newman:As a man of a certain age, same. Romeo plus Juliet.

47:16David Sims:And like, it's just like, I find him, I guess like, him as this like leading man that a lot of kind of auteur directors really cling on. I don't always see it. Like, in this case, I do enjoy him being like the fool. Like, I think he's very funny in this and there's a lot of pathos as well. But yeah, like he is kind of like the floundering point in the middle of this movie of like all of the action. Yeah.

47:40Griffin Newman:I think something that I was thinking about this watching it again and in light of that really great Nikki Glaser joke about we don't know anything about you. Like the only thing we know about you is that you date 23 year old models or whatever. Right. and that's why I can't make another joke. I'm sorry for this hack joke. And I think that was such a smart, like, he made into the Leo joke. Yeah, you know, because he really, I don't know fucking anything about him. All I know about him is he has, apparently, one of the most incredible collections of movie posters, like, in Hollywood, and the people, like, come to his house to see it because it's, like, really, really highly regarded.

48:13Griffin Newman:And they're, like, they're thumbtacked to the walls. Yeah, they're all on the blue tab. Yeah, No, it's just, like, that's the one thing I know about Leo because people, I've heard people say like, oh, yeah, and then you get to see his movie post. And I'm assuming this home is in Los Angeles. Like, I don't even know that. It's a good question. What if it's in like Omaha? No, no, yes. And I think it's to his advantage, like that you can watch him in a movie. And yes, you are receiving some like known Leo-ness. But like he can kind of really fit himself to a movie's knees, right? Sure. But I also find myself kind of like yearning for a little bit of a deeper context with him.

48:49David Sims:He has no public-facing persona at all, really, aside from, like, he's Leonardo DiCaprio. He loves models. He loves running on the beach. And he loves movies. And he loves movies, yeah.

49:01Griffin Newman:And he likes environmentalism. For a while, that was the only Leo thing. It was like, well, he loves, like, electric cars and stuff. That was his, like, chosen, like, personality thing. Yeah. I mean, that's why the Jennifer Lawrence video with him, where the variety actors and actors, where she is clearly like trying to get as much of a rise out of him as she can is so interesting. Because she is fearless about it because she's an A-list actor who's about to work with him. She almost gets him a couple times. And that's why everyone loved him at the Golden Globes talking to, it is Teyana, right?

49:30Griffin Newman:Yeah. Like where he got kind of activated. You see his personality. Right, you see him being silly because he's talking about like K-pop demon hunters with her or whatever. Can we sidebar on Leo's Oscar history? Because I remember I had a friend in college who was a huge Leo fan and was so invested in Leo getting snubbed constantly. Yeah. Not winning, right? And then eventually he wins for The Revenant, which is a very harried and dramatic, serious performance. He has everything he went through. That was the year where he really pressed the flesh. He went all in. It was time. He did all the dinners.

50:10Griffin Newman:He did all the campaigning and all that, right? Do you think he has any shot this year? No. No. I don't think he ever had any shot, really. I think he's at four or five. I think he's pretty low down. I just think because he's won, everyone takes him for granted. The Academy takes him for granted, and I think that that taking for granted sort of is sourced in an original resentment. So his first Oscar nomination in 1993, I believe, was for What's Eating Gilbert Grape, and that performance has arguably not stood the test of time. it's a good performance yeah yeah whether it's representative of anything in the real world who knows but like but back then i think that the academy was like oh here's this like stringy interesting kid who did this big transformation let's keep an eye on him totally and then just a couple years later he emerges as what allison and i were like yeah and that's when the academy is like fuck this guy this pretty boy bubble up you know and they really treat him like that they they will nominate him for things.

51:12Griffin Newman:No, but they, but they stumped him for Titanic. Yeah, they stumped him for Titanic. You know, they, he does, you know. It was kind of also like

51:17David Sims:the Pussy Pussy era, right? The Pussy Pussy thing was happening.

51:20Griffin Newman:I think there was a lot of resistance to, like, you're, you're right. You're a teen idol, not a great actor. And like, you know, Matt Damon gets nominated Best Actor the year, the Titanic year. Right. And like, I mean, Damon's good in Good Will Hunting. Yeah, but he kind of, but like, that's them being like, well, we thought this was good. This guy's acting. Right. You are just pretty. You know, like, it really felt that way because, like, Titanic, everything else gets nominated, you know, except for the screenplay hilarious. The Pussy Posse thing, which, you know, was sort of coined in this Nancy Jo Sales article for New York Magazine back in the late 90s, is a fascinating time capsule to read.

51:53Griffin Newman:If anyone listening has not read it, please go seek it out. It's really interesting. And, you know, Leo does not. It's called Leo, Prince of the City, I think.

52:01David Sims:It is about, I guess, if you don't know what the Pussy Posse is, it is about this group of...

52:05Griffin Newman:Oh, him, Tobey Maguire, some other folks. Lucas Haas. Lucas Haas.

52:09David Sims:David Blaine at some point, I believe.

52:11Griffin Newman:Yeah, there was some like, I do say, yeah. But then he disappeared.

52:14David Sims:And they were just like, they were notorious for like going out and raising hell.

52:19Griffin Newman:And there's apparently a film called Don's Plum that they made, a friend of theirs directed. Definitely. Like Leo has actively worked to bury. He's like buried it. There's like offensive stuff in it, whatever. So I can understand, given that that was his origin story and then that he was struggling to get like really serious consideration at, you know, in the industry, that now he has completely been like, I don't give you anything of my personal life or my, you know, my personality, because like, I did that when I was a kid. And look, if you're that goddamn good looking, and you're making that much money, and in these, like, I can't say what I would have acted like, probably not well, you know, he seems to have somewhat reformed.

52:59Griffin Newman:But yeah, so his privacy is based on something that like, when he used to live very publicly, and so I get it. But the movie the Oscars treated him, I just feel like they were like, you're fine. You don't need us. You're already a big star. And he was earning, he could open movies. Yeah, totally. Big directors really wanted to work with him. He had snubbed for Titanic, fine. They snubbed him again for Catch Me If You Can, but that's the sort of dual year with Gangs of New York where he gets kind of bad reviews and I feel like there was just a little bit of like, there was confusion about it. Wait your turn.

53:29Griffin Newman:Yeah. And then he gets the second nom for The Aviator, which is like this level up project for him. He produces the movie. He works with Martin Scorsese again. he plays Howard Hughes he plays a Hollywood and that I feel like is when the Oscars started to be like fine you are now in the club you will get your nominations like you're a consistent president but don't you know you're gonna wait for a win you're gonna wait for a win but still like Blood Diamond Wolf of Wall Street Revenant yeah you know like well it was a long gap between Blood Diamond and Wolf of Wall Street but I feel like that's when Leo's making movies kind of angling for an Oscar that aren't you know aren't really connecting like a J.

54:06Griffin Newman:Edgar or whatever, or he's making things like Inception. That won the Nobel Prize. Yeah, won the Nobel Prize for Try Again. You know, Departed, Revolutionary Road and Jay Edgar both feel like Oscar plays. Oh, yeah. Where everyone was like, well, sorry. And like Winslet didn't even get like ultimate. But Michael Shannon did, right? Michael Shannon did. He's not well. Yeah, I hate that movie. But like also Departed was a significant turning point for him in one way, which, you know, whatever. But I remember seeing that movie in the theater. And when Leo first shows up kind of scruffy, like I was like, wow, wow, we wow, he's a man.

54:46Griffin Newman:Like it was when he grew up, you know, and then he could kind of reshape his sort of star persona. And that kind of thing is what led him to be able to do The Revenant credibly, I think, for people. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, and obviously, like, you know, it's just the Hollywood thing of, like, especially when you look at Leo's career. Like, he just would work with giant directors, get giant movies made, and they would usually make a ton of money. And there's just not a lot of people doing that, especially as the 2010s come along. Is there, like, a biggie director he hasn't worked with yet?

55:17Griffin Newman:He's done Nolan, Spielberg, Scorsese, BTA. PTA was definitely sort of big, like, can he check that one off? Yeah. Yeah. Because they've been circling each other all the way back to bookie. Yeah. Adam Shankman. I don't know. I think the question is more just like

55:30David Sims:there are not that many big directors. Well, the question also is

55:32Griffin Newman:could he work with a woman? He hasn't worked with a female director in basically ever. Yeah. For a very long time. Which is a kind of stain on his record. Some people point that out. I mean, again, you know, we hold movie actors sometimes to like, you know, these weird sort of like, why haven't you done this? And I'm like, I don't know. He's a movie actor.

55:49David Sims:I mean, he also just, I mean, as someone who has liked a big paycheck, you know. He usually will get your,

55:54Griffin Newman:he'll get a big paycheck.

55:55David Sims:And that has affected the particular types of movies that he has made.

55:58Griffin Newman:Yeah, if it's like a$20 million or bust. But I think it's partly because directors come to him being like, I want to make Inception. Exactly. And even I, Christopher Nolan, might need you, Leonardo DiCaprio, to actually get$200 million for my Dream Thief movie. You know what I mean? I can't explain this movie in an elevator pitch.

56:16David Sims:Are you kidding? It takes me at least 10 minutes to explain the premise.

56:18Griffin Newman:The movie is an instruction manual. So Paris folds on itself. It sure does.

56:22David Sims:Well, I mean, I think the thing that is interesting to me about Leo's recent choices are the ways in which those parts, I mean, like Ernest Burkhart in Killers of the Flower Moon, and particularly the narrative of Killers, you know, where they were like, he's not going to be the proto-FBI agent. Right. And that's, like, the movie's going to be based around that, like, the initial envisioning, you know, we're going to reshape this movie to be driven by the indigenous characters. It's rude that they stumped him for that, too. He's so good in that. But like he's playing these characters that like are deliberately, yes, like no longer the center of the story.

56:57David Sims:Right. Like, I mean, the funny thing about like Bob Ferguson is that he is like this floundering character in the middle of all of this action. Right. Constantly. Like he is not the one driving things forward in any way anymore. And it's a funny performance, I think. But that is also probably the reason that it was number five. Like he's like four or five. And the kind of like the like chances of winning.

57:18Griffin Newman:But I also the main thing is also just that he's won. If he hadn't won an Oscar, he'd be winning this year. Right? Like, it's just, you know. The longer it takes, it's why. Bradley Cooper is going to play, like, a bucket with a face drawn on it at some point. And they'll be like, we have to give you an Oscar. You have 14 nominations. Like, it's gotten out of hand. Right? You know, like, there just comes a point where they're sweating about how many. Like, Amy Adams, it'll happen to her someday. Or it won't. Well, I don't know. She may have actually, like, thrown a witch down a well or something.

57:44Griffin Newman:I don't know what happened. Yeah.

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1:00:36All right.

1:00:37Griffin Newman:So predictions. I feel like we could focus on this, the quote unquote, big six. Sure. It's my will only be. Eight, eight, eight, eight. We're writers. We're writers.

1:00:48David Sims:We can't dismiss writing.

1:00:50Griffin Newman:So that's adaptive screenplay, original screenplay, supporting actors, lead actors, director, picture. Right. Yeah. So I'm assuming we're all exactly on the same page. I'm very stressed out about the. Yeah. I don't know. It's hard to... It feels very, yeah. It's a year where there are a few, like, stone-cold certainties for me, and then other categories where it's just like, I genuinely have no idea. Right. I mean, F1, best picture, locked. Everything after that. They already announced that.

1:01:21David Sims:Yeah, yeah.

1:01:23Griffin Newman:Let's start with screenplays. Okay. Okay. Because I feel like that's kind of easy.

1:01:26David Sims:I mean, it just feels like, yeah.

1:01:28Griffin Newman:That's the easiest.

1:01:29David Sims:Sinners in one battle, like, we'll split it. Yeah.

1:01:31Griffin Newman:And that was reflected at the WGA awards this past weekend. Now, I assume with the WGA's sentimental value and it was just an accident were not in contention, right? Because the WGA's tend to not be able to feature international movies. And like, I've seen the argument of like, oh, could it was just an accident win here as the sort of like award for Jafar Panahi? That's the only real sort of argument I can see against Sinners winning. But I have predicted Sinners from the beginning.

1:01:58David Sims:It feels like, and also, I don't know. I mean, I can understand people wanting to give an award to Panahi, but I just don't feel like the momentum has been there. No, the movie didn't. With that movie.

1:02:08Griffin Newman:Yeah. I mean, the movie did great. It won the Palme d 'Or. Sure, won the Palme d 'Or. It's not short of praise, yeah. But right, it did not quite connect on the Oscar level. We had predicted maybe a few months prior or whatever. Yeah, I mean, in a way. It's one of my favorites of the year. I think it's a brilliant movie, but like one might think, well, you know, what's going on with Iran right now would lead people to that movie. but I kind of think the opposite might have been true during voting where people were like I don't want to deal with that. I have no idea but I think Sinners you know this is I pointed this out but like this is where Spike Lee won his Oscar this is where Jordan Peele won his Oscar like they often get yeah yeah right right right this sort of like fresh young well Spike Lee's not a fresh young director but like we're not going to give you best director so we'll give you this as the kind of consolation prize which is sort of ironic because I think we all think that Paul Thomas Anderson is winning for adapted screenplay where he's also the frontrunner director.

1:03:02Griffin Newman:But I mean, as a work of adaptation, this is the strongest. Well, because he changed a lot, right? Yeah. It's an interesting adaptation. Obviously, it's also just, right, it's a, you know, the writing of the film is the standout. And he said in some interview like 10 years ago, like he was asked about favorite books or something and he was like, oh, Vineland, which is the Pynchon novel, is really high up there. I'm either going to adapt it or just rip it off. And he went the former route. I mean, I guess Hamnet is sort of the nominal runner up there. I think that was the number two, yeah. But I do feel like, for one, Chloe Zhao has an Oscar or two, possibly.

1:03:43Griffin Newman:Two? I wonder. And I just feel like the Hamnet, you know, juices. Yeah, it's gone.

1:03:49David Sims:Yeah, yeah, yes.

1:03:50Griffin Newman:Hamnet juice. Yeah. This week's episode is brought to you by Hamnet juice.

1:03:55David Sims:Miss your kid?

1:03:56Griffin Newman:The taste of tragedy. Tears.

1:04:00David Sims:All right. So we've settled that.

1:04:03Griffin Newman:Screamily, I think those are locked. I think they're the most locked. Yes. Yeah.

1:04:07David Sims:It's also like the least helpful in terms of like the biggest kind of call there. Right. Because you're just like, yeah, there's one for both.

1:04:13Griffin Newman:Right. For the two biggest movies. Right.

1:04:15David Sims:All right. Well, then let's do supporting actor. Supporting actress. For actress, I'm going to go Tiana.

1:04:23Griffin Newman:I think that's a call. I think that's a solid call.

1:04:25David Sims:No.

1:04:25Griffin Newman:It's sort of, she was so great when she won the Globe. And it felt like, great, is this it? Like, are we going to do a bunch of Tiana speeches? This is going to rock. And then it's been such a funny season. All over the place, yeah. So Madigan won the SAG and the Critics' Choice. And then Woodmeet won the BAFTA. Yeah. Right? Elle won nothing. No, she gets nothing. The Sentinel-A-L-L-A-L-E girls win nothing. No, no. They win nothing. Not even their father's love. Or in Elle Fanning, sort of a, you know, kind of a father figure. Well, they're splitting the vote in theory. Sure. Yeah. I'm predicting, so I have predictions, formal predictions on premierparty.com, my newsletter.

1:05:03Griffin Newman:Please go read it, subscribe, all that. I'm predicting Madigan only because Madigan thus far has won two of the televised awards. Indeed. Not the Critics' Choice. It was on top of me. For whatever sick freaks wanted to see that. And SAG does have significant overlap with the Academy. So does the BAFTA. So Masaku is definitely not out of it. But I think that she had a little hometown advantage in the UK. Rewatching Sinners for last week's episode. Her part is not, I think, quite substantial enough. But I could be totally wrong. She's great in it. She's so good in it. It's sort of, you know, she has two killer scenes.

1:05:45Griffin Newman:She's great throughout, obviously. Whereas Madigan kind of walks away with the last... The argument against Madigan is the sort of like the relative rarity of the one nomination movie, you know, nabbing a big award. But it does happen. Yeah. And a horror thing that's... Right, in a movie that's not really on screen. I get to people wanting

1:06:04David Sims:to give that movie something also. I agree.

1:06:07Griffin Newman:I will predict Madigan kind of like very kind of tentatively though. I think this is the hardest of the acting categories to call them. Yeah. I think it's a... She's also... She is like... She's mild royalty. Like I know people don't talk about Amy Madigan much. But like, you know, she's a really respected known name to older voters. And she's got a nomination like 40 years ago. She did. And she's married to a very well-known person. And she's like been at the Oscars many times. And I just think like, I think so many people in the Academy love that story of like Craig or being like, knock, knock.

1:06:40Griffin Newman:Yeah. Semi-retired, like good actor. I wrote a part essentially for you. You want to do it? You know, and then her just crushing it. Yeah. Yeah. And like it making a lot of money and she's handled it well. her speeches have been good so that's why i'm predicting her um but this is also one of those great categories where it's like i'd be happy if any of these people won yeah you know all right supporting actor you know i think we talked a little bit about this last week maybe but like you know kyle buchanan's been saying yeah since like december that his conversations in la sean penn had this in september and it's never wavered even though critics groups gave things to Benicio and it's been, you know, Stellan won somewhere.

1:07:20Griffin Newman:Right. The way it's broken out is like the critics groups largely went for Benicio. The critics choice went to Jacob Delordi. The Golden Globe went to Stellan Skarsgård. SAG and BAFTA both went to Penn. Who won? Who won? They did. Yeah. So that's been. Which is like where he reemerges as like, oh, he was the front row the whole time. And then there is the mystery thing of like, and then like the Oscars just threw Delroy Lindo in there. Like where like some people are even kind of drawn to like, could he just kind of like out of nowhere you know i mean some of the brutally honest ballots i've read across various outlets recently more than a few said delray linda was their vote you know who knows that's not representative of anything necessarily but um but again i with linda who is great in his movie was definitely overlooked for defy of bloods a few years ago and of course i'm sure that there is some mind toward correcting that you know egregious oversight but pen is in much more of the movie and he is somebody, despite all of his weird personal shit, like that the Academy really obviously likes him a lot.

1:08:22Griffin Newman:Yeah, to me the argument is giving him a third Oscar. It is a little bit. Sorry, Allison, what do you want to say?

1:08:29David Sims:Well, I was just gonna say, it's also like, it feels like a classic supporting role in that it's just like a bigger like, I think borderline cartoonish at times performance. Like it's this kind of like outsized caricature. He's really good though. And he really leans into that. And I feel like

1:08:44Griffin Newman:And the existence of RFK Jr. really is another one where you're just like, did he know about this? That scene where he runs over that bear and then puts it in his freezer.

1:08:54David Sims:But they both have this kind of reddishness, this underlying kind of like they've been holding their breath and bracing for a long time, just like permanently.

1:09:02Griffin Newman:And the physical, I mean, there's a physical aspect to the transformation. Why is your t-shirt so tight? So you guys are predicting Penn. Yeah, what about you?

1:09:13David Sims:I think I actually, just based on total nothing, just a whim, I'm going to go with Skarsgård.

1:09:19Griffin Newman:Okay. I'm torn because I've long figured, Skarsgård, it's just the kind of performance they love. It's a career award, which he's really everywhere. And he's gone from reliable Hollywood guy, plays grumps, to kind of like he's in every franchise. He's sort of a delightful grandpa. Like the Mamma Mia thing really transformed him into like, he can be funny. Like he can be jocular. And then like he gives interviews where he's very candid. He has an army of children that we all worship. Like all the, you know, just the kind of. He and Alexander were kind of like on the film festival circuit together.

1:09:55Griffin Newman:He sits at the head of the table in Valhalla.

1:09:58David Sims:Yeah, basically with all of his enormous sons.

1:10:00Griffin Newman:And obviously also the Oscars over indexed on sentimental value has me looking for like, do they want to give him an award? so I'm predicting him but kind of again like very weakly like I don't really know

1:10:13David Sims:this is based entirely on like a whim for me yeah

1:10:16Griffin Newman:yeah the over indexing on sentimental is interesting and it's just that I over index on they don't like to give people multiple Oscars which I'm often wrong about like I was wrong about Emma Stone Frances McDormand well her I saw coming up for it it's fine I love it I love Frances McDormand she's great Christoph Waltz yeah that was a weird one because everyone had an Oscar his for his but still Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like a third Oscar for Sean Penn? A third Oscar's a lot. And you have the opportunity to give Delroy Lindo or Stellan Skarsgård two guys who don't have a ton of years ahead of them.

1:10:47Griffin Newman:Yeah, totally. Like who have, you know, who are like these invaluable journeyman character actors from very different traditions. That would be exciting if either of them won. Lordy, congrats, kid. Like, you're tall. Yeah, he's very tall. Don't hit your head. All right. so let's go into the look director it's PCA right yeah without a doubt yeah or what about the Kugler case

1:11:15David Sims:I okay I'm leaning towards Kugler I think mainly out of like maybe having like immersed myself in the discourse too much yeah I do feel like there has been notable pressure lately in terms of like pushing like how much even when a film from a black director wins best picture do not win. Yeah. Which is,

1:11:36Griffin Newman:you know, it's happened twice. And there is like, yeah,

1:11:39David Sims:like what, like no black film maker has ever won. Right. Yeah. 12 Years a Slave,

1:11:44Griffin Newman:McQueen and Moonlight didn't, yeah. Yeah.

1:11:46David Sims:And so I feel like that way of pressure, I mean, I feel like it's so obviously like these bigger, the biggest like awards are like going to be split between these two movies or like the, like the choice is between these two like kind of movies that have been in that, like the lead of nominations have been in the lead of the discussions forever. But yeah, so I'm just kind of thinking, I don't know, maybe this...

1:12:07Griffin Newman:No, I think there is a possibility will happen. I also think, I think that you, David, and Griffin have talked about this on Blank Check, the Ralph Fiennes problem, where people, I think, if someone off stage... People are like, oh, and he already won? Yeah, like, sure. Well, Ralph Fiennes, no, he got one in the 90s for one of those... I think people know PTA hasn't won. I think so much of his narrative is like, how does this is out of control? We gotta fix this. I think he's a mortal lock. Whereas I'm sure voters think, like Kugler has definitely an Oscar in him. Kugler's also like 12 years old.

1:12:40Griffin Newman:Like I mean like it's part of his charm where you're just like how are you so young you've made so many hits. I think he's like my age. What is he like 38 or 39? I wouldn't say 39. He's 30. He's a month younger than me. That's young for that profession. And I've only made two billion dollar movies. Right. That's true.

1:12:55David Sims:You gotta get on that. Pick up the pace.

1:12:58Griffin Newman:And DiCaprio has posters of both of them in his home. I just think Kugler I think PTA is a lock for director, of course. Prove me wrong, Academy. I mean, like, maybe he loses. And again, we are not saying what we want to win. We're just kind of trying to think with the Academy's psychology in mind. That said, let's move on to the acting, the lead acting categories. I think Bass Stature is a total toss-up. No one has any idea.

1:13:22David Sims:Yeah, it's the...

1:13:23Griffin Newman:Ryan Smith. It's been so good.

1:13:25David Sims:It has made it such a kind of, like, weird, boring, blank spot, you know, where you're just like, she's been...

1:13:31Griffin Newman:The exciting thing was, like, Will Roseburn get in as a nominee? Right, right.

1:13:34David Sims:And I love that she did get in. I mean, but yeah, like there was never, there's just been so little question about Jesse Buckley being the winner.

1:13:41Griffin Newman:What leads to that level of confidence? Because I've heard that too from all season, but like where exactly does that come from? Is it just everyone talking to each other? It's an intuition. I mean, like that movie, Hamnet, premiered at... Tell you where. And the word from On the Mountain was like, oh, she's pretty good in that. No, the word was Oscar done. And it's never changed. And then I, yeah, I think I saw it in Toronto and I was like, oh, right. That's so obvious that she's going to win. And I don't, can't really explain what that is, but it. It's just perfect in every way. Like one, does she play like a wife who cries?

1:14:19Griffin Newman:Oscars are like, you know, it's the Vince McMahon meme where they're like, a wife who cries? And I'm not trying to dismiss them. I'm just talking about like the sort of the cold bloodedness of the Academy. me like two is she like a young ish actress aka in her 30s established but still coming up yeah like it's sort of an ingenue they love that you know but then like but leaping to a new level and three is like she a prior nominee so it's kind of like great here's your here's your you know here it's emma stone it's just like here you go you you've you've uh you've proven you're all your bona fides and like now you're the best actress she's classy she's from a different country you know all of that um and the competition is is fairly weak no offense to it like it's like you know yeah it's a bunch of weird movies i mean i think that also the a lot of the other you know contenders like i think that i mean i don't know this but it just has felt this way that i think a lot of the studios distributors behind the other nominees they saw buckley in telluride and were like rose we'll get we'll we'll do a campaign for you but we're not gonna like you're not going to win this so like i i think they kind of like put their took their foot off the gas a little i mean like you know you know right like burn rose burn who'd be my winner her movie's quite hostile nomination feels like the reward kate hudson it's also kind of the nomination feels like the reward where they're like you know good job sticking around like in after like years in the wilderness like i mean that was a movie that like like people no one

1:15:49David Sims:was like taking very seriously otherwise as an oscar contender but it did make money and like

1:15:53Griffin Newman:and she hit the campaign. And our previous guest, Sam Sanders,

1:15:57David Sims:made a very good case, a very compelling case for Kate Hudson in that movie, which I appreciate.

1:16:01Griffin Newman:No, I mean, but I do think the nom is the reward. And, you know, like Emma Stone does deserve a third Oscar for Begonia, I think, and it's sad that she won't get one. Emma Stone winning the Oscar for Begonia as her would be, I think she would be like, can we double check? Guys, don't make me go up there. She would be in the audience like, no, I'm good, I'm good. Right, right.

1:16:22David Sims:Someone else. who was number two who started going over someone like said so

1:16:25Griffin Newman:and then like Renata like I love her I guess there's a world where you could argue for her in terms of like she's also like been around for a little while now and she's proving herself over and over again but like it's a it's a more internal performance it's an ensemble yeah you know like and it's not quite it's the Academy thing look we obviously liked Worst Person we gave it a couple nominations we did not nominate you but we did see you we saw you and now you're here and welcome and good luck in the future but we're not you know I do think it's a little bit of that yeah I mean it's just it's just she goes through every single bit right it's a very big performance I just they love that and when Jesse Buckley is on stage getting devoured by cats that someone is set loose then we'll have our Oscars cheer moment or whatever

1:17:16David Sims:yeah it'll be really beautiful yeah

1:17:18Griffin Newman:alright best actor is where I think my prediction on premiere, again, on premiereparty.com, um, run into some trouble because, like, I am predicting Chalamet to win. And I know that people would say, like,

1:17:31David Sims:I mean, he has been the frontrunner.

1:17:33Griffin Newman:Except that he didn't win BAFTA, he didn't win SAG. But as we sort of teased earlier in this episode, BAFTA was a homegrown kid for a British movie that they liked and was a hit. And SAG, of course,

1:17:44David Sims:that worked out very well. SAG, he had won the Pride year.

1:17:47Griffin Newman:He'd won the, and I do think that matters. Like, I'm like, I don't think it matters at SAG if they had won 20 years ago, but they voted for him last year. Yeah. Like, I do think SAG voters take that into account. I agree. And I think that they, you know. Who'd they give it to again? SAG? Michael B. Jordan. Oh, yeah. That was cool. Which is why, you know. That was pretty cool. No, it's great that Jordan won. I would be thrilled to see Michael B. Jordan win at the Oscars. He's, you know, one of our few movie stars remaining. Yeah, totally. And it's exciting that he kind of is leveling up with this.

1:18:19Griffin Newman:I mean, I think he's been great. It's also like, again, like, right, you're using your clout to make something interesting. And may he continue to do that. And he's playing twins. Yeah. So, again, this is not who I want to win, necessarily. It's just that, like, I think... It's okay to want him to win. Yeah. Also, we know that you're secretly Club Chalamet. Here's why I want...

1:18:38David Sims:Didn't she abandon him? Yeah, I think she's... Isn't she on to the heated rivalry or whatever? Yeah, yeah. That's sad. That is some Sherman-esque shit.

1:18:47Griffin Newman:That is, like, tear down this wall. Sorry, Benedict Arnold.

1:18:50David Sims:Yeah, I mean, like, I feel like there is maybe no more sign that, like, the guide is turned for Timothee Chalamet than to be abandoned by his biggest, potentially scariest fan.

1:19:01Griffin Newman:Partly. Not potential. Potentially, yeah. part of why I want if I did want Chalamet to win why I would want him to win is like it would be so nice and lifting of a burden if going forward there wasn't this fucking Chalamet Oscar discourse around everything he did true you're signing up for the Leo experience of like he made another big movie you gonna do it this time I gotta eat a liver for you to actually do it and I do feel like this is such a like dominant like performance in a big movie they ostensibly liked although no one's talking about Marty Supreme lately but they gave it a bunch of noms and all that and he's you know in practically every bit of the movie he does goes through every emotion he got it to like basically a hundred domestic this is a movie about table tennis in the 50s like these are these are feats of stardom like Leo didn't get one battle to 100 domestic no like uh so all these things are things you'd think matter uh i would predict him but i don't know i don't i i i cannot the vibe shift does feel quite profound here and and jordan does have the win at an overlap like there's a lot like the actors are the biggest branch of the academy they gave him the actor prize for you know they gave that to jordan so like by the numbers you'd be like well Jordan is definitely the front runner and I think a lot of the odds on like Gold Derby are saying that and look again I could be totally wrong I just have this sense that like kind of almost like with Sean Penn before you know he once started winning things it's like maybe Chalamet's kind of been in the front the whole time and we just didn't know it but sometimes that can get people sick of you

1:20:51David Sims:yeah I mean I feel like he has been in the front the whole time yeah I think so I'm gonna do the chaos pick I'm gonna do Wagner Mora

1:20:56Griffin Newman:I think that's a fine pick because that has you know look I mean, at the New York Film Critics Circle, he triumphed in a three-way battle. Yeah. That was very close.

1:21:06David Sims:I mean, that thing is, I feel like he has been floating in like second to third this whole time, like for a while. And I feel like there is a world in which the split votes for these multiple famous people end up kind of like leaving space for... And I feel like it also, just the ways in which it would just rile up the discourse.

1:21:27Griffin Newman:It would be very interesting if you want. But no one could get mad about it. No one could get mad about it. I think there would be a little bit of bafflement from, you know, the sort of wider audience of like, wait, what's this one? It would be sort of like Olivia Colman-ish, you know, in a way that more people had seen The Favorite. But like, like. Yeah, the thing about Olivia is she beat Glenn Close for a movie nobody liked or saw. Right. Like everyone knows Glenn Close, but nobody liked The Wife. Sorry, The Wife. Don't come after me, The Wife. How dare you?

1:21:53David Sims:Wife stands.

1:21:55Griffin Newman:Don't throw peanuts at me on the airplane. Doesn't that happen in that movie? The City with an airplane. I've never seen the wife. Max Irons, isn't it? He is. Yeah. So there was that kind of instant shock of like, oh, Glenn lost. Oh, no. And then Olivia gets up, gives the greatest Oscar speech basically of all time. And everyone sort of just exits being like, that rocked. Who's going to close anyone ever heard of her? Whereas this, I think, would be kind of like Wagner beating Leo, Michael B. Jordan, Timmy, even Ethan Hawke, who's arguably somewhat due as well. People would be like, what the hell?

1:22:27Griffin Newman:Yeah, Ethan Hawke's first over lead nomination. Sure, he's only got three acting nominations. Training Day, Boyhood, and this. Boyhood, and this, right. And then he's got two screenplay novels for the befores. Right, yeah. Well. Anyway, so again, I think we're all picking someone different. Or no, you're saying Chalamet, too.

1:22:47David Sims:You guys are both Chalamet.

1:22:48Griffin Newman:Okay.

1:22:48David Sims:And Maura.

1:22:49Griffin Newman:I'm like a very... Soft, soft, Chalamet. I'll go on DJ. Okay, let's split it up.

1:22:53David Sims:Yeah, let's cover our bases.

1:22:54Griffin Newman:Because I really, Timmy is the one where I feel the vibe shift a little harder even though like, right, my logic-y brain of like, Sag is, well, he won last year, you know, like that doesn't mean like that much. Like, I don't know. I do feel it a little bit in the water. Yeah, and Sag doesn't always translate, you know. No, Sag is insane. They gave Emily Blunt an award for The Quiet Place. They gave herself a Best Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation, right? Like they've had some like pretty like out there wins. Yeah,

1:23:20David Sims:yeah.

1:23:21Griffin Newman:Right? There's probably some others I'm not thinking of. oh no there definitely are in SAG's past

1:23:26David Sims:alright so let's call it BP I mean I feel like it's one battles

1:23:32Griffin Newman:so right this is interesting you think possibly sinners would split in director for one battles I think one battle is fairly locked because of the PGA which I know is such a boring reason but that was just sort of the one last thing I was looking for the golf association yeah right I just need to know it's very strong to be a fan this time of year no because the pj has a preferential ballot this is the boring technical thing right like the same way that the oscars do that one battle won that suggested for me what i've known all along which is like it's in everyone's top three basically yeah the ranks is just a little bit more polarizing like some people don't like a movie about vampires yeah you would probably assume that like the majority like a majority of those ranked ballots were you know one two but like yeah one battle is somewhere toward the top of a lot of them, whereas Sinners probably has more yaw.

1:24:22Griffin Newman:Slightly. It's definitely many people's number one, but maybe it's down to six or seven for other people. It's what I think will happen. I don't actually think F1's going to win. I've got money on it, so I'm hoping. Big, big, big. I'm just trying to imagine just the next morning waking up to Begonia Sweep with the weirdest. Because I do think... Would that be the weirdest?

1:24:46David Sims:Train dreams all over the place.

1:24:48Griffin Newman:Yeah. I think Begonia would be the weirdest of the 10 to win Best Picture. Sure. I mean, F1 would be somewhat laughable, but like, yeah. I mean, good job Begonia getting those noms. No? No, totally. I mean, it really like, it held on. It held on. Like it came out, you know, festivals, people were like, interesting, like, yeah, pretty good. And then it came out and that was sort of the reaction again and it made like some money. Yeah. And it's just kind of like, you know, he's just got his sort of like fraction of the Academy that's very into his movie. But Gonya also, and you could probably argue F1 too, like benefited from like a few other higher profile Oscar.

1:25:28Griffin Newman:Like falling flat. Like just completely dying. Totally. Yeah. Weird year. Poor J.K. But yeah, I am. They locked him in that basement. Yeah.

1:25:35David Sims:If they never made that movie, I feel like it could have done really well.

1:25:37Griffin Newman:And that basement was in a house of dynamite. Oh my. I don't remember that one. Remember that one? So I'm fucked on the vulture. I think I because I have House of Dynamite I have House of Dynamite my problem was that I over indexed very early on like before any reviews were happening on After the Hunt and House of Dynamite as movies that just felt like they would appeal to a sort of mid-50s crowd you know like movies that are about big serious topics by big serious directors in like fairly traditional kind of and then both of those movies did not go over I did see

1:26:08David Sims:I did this cynical Wicked for Good I bought that and that really did not work out

1:26:13Griffin Newman:Not biting on that movie is a triumph for the Academy. Yeah. It's a good job by them.

1:26:18David Sims:Yeah. Yeah.

1:26:18Griffin Newman:Zero. Yeah. So I'm predicting one battle. But if, you know, Sinners is definitely a close number two, I would say. Okay. So now for documentation purposes, I'm going to run down the ones we just did. And you're going to tell me your picks. Yes. And then we'll do a lightning round for the rest of the categories. So best picture.

1:26:40David Sims:One battle after another.

1:26:41Griffin Newman:Same. Same. Best Director PTA Ryan Coogler PTA Best Actor Bogdan Mora Timothy Chalamet Michael B. Jordan

1:26:51David Sims:Best Actress Jessie Buckley

1:26:53Griffin Newman:for all of us Jessie Buckley Agnes Best Supporting Actor

1:26:57David Sims:Stellan Skarsgård

1:26:58Griffin Newman:Sean Penn Stellan Skarsgård I remember

1:27:01David Sims:Gotta commit You gotta commit

1:27:03Griffin Newman:Best Supporting Actress Madigan

1:27:05David Sims:You're also Madigan right Madigan I'm Tiana Yeah

1:27:09Griffin Newman:Best Original Screenplay Sinners Sinners Sinners. Best Adapted Screenplay.

1:27:14David Sims:One Battle for Another.

1:27:15Griffin Newman:One Battle. Yeah. And now we move on to... Let's keep going. Power Through. Best Animated Feature.

1:27:20David Sims:K-Pop Demon Hunters. K-Pop Demon Hunters.

1:27:22Griffin Newman:I did see one anonymous ballot that said, I'll never vote for that K-Pop movie, but I think that was one person. Anyway. Best International Feature. Incredibly tough category, actually. Sentimental Value, because they gave it so many other nominations.

1:27:36David Sims:Secret Agent.

1:27:37Griffin Newman:I'm going Secret Agent, but I don't know.

1:27:39David Sims:Yeah.

1:27:39Griffin Newman:Best Documentary Feature.

1:27:41David Sims:Perfect Neighbor.

1:27:42Griffin Newman:Mr. Nobody Against Putin. I'm picking Perfect Neighbor. I'm not very confident in that either.

1:27:47David Sims:Yeah.

1:27:47Griffin Newman:Best Casting.

1:27:49David Sims:Oh.

1:27:50Griffin Newman:Sinners. Sinners. Sinners. Beyond anything else, Francine Maisler is a legend. Best Cinematography.

1:27:56David Sims:Sinners.

1:27:57Griffin Newman:I am picking One Battle After Another, which is one every precursor. Okay. Best Film Editing.

1:28:03David Sims:One Battle.

1:28:04Griffin Newman:One Battle. Always goes to one. Oh, yeah. One Battle. Best Production Design.

1:28:09David Sims:Frankenstein. Frankenstein.

1:28:12Griffin Newman:Frankenstein best costume design

1:28:15David Sims:Frankenstein it's won all the pre-cruits

1:28:17Griffin Newman:yeah best makeup and hairstyling

1:28:20David Sims:Frankenstein Frankenstein I hmm

1:28:23Griffin Newman:David are you in the Kukuho hive? yeah I love Kukuho the highest grossing live action Japanese film ever released I genuinely love Kukuho I'm rooting for Kukuho here I will pick I will pick Sinners just for fun

1:28:36David Sims:okay I like that

1:28:37Griffin Newman:best original score Sinners Sinners

1:28:40David Sims:Sinners.

1:28:41Griffin Newman:That would be his third. Little Weeks. Sean Penn style. Best original song?

1:28:46David Sims:Golden.

1:28:46Griffin Newman:A song I listen to every single day in my house. Inescapable. Golden. Best sound?

1:28:51David Sims:F1.

1:28:52Griffin Newman:F1. Best visual effects? Avatar. Avatar. Best animated short?

1:28:58David Sims:I've seen none of these. I did predict these.

1:29:01Griffin Newman:Butterfly. Butterfly, because there's a sort of World War II Holocaust-y. Okay, there you go. I, of course, will pick the girl who cried pearls. Don't know.

1:29:11David Sims:Okay.

1:29:12Griffin Newman:Best live action short? Two People Exchanging Saliva. Two People Exchanging Saliva. It seems to be the front runner. It's a little bit Black Mary. It has a conceit to it. Friend of Dorothy is, I watched it the other day, is mortifying. So that could win. I'm going to go with the Singers

1:29:30David Sims:just because I saw Netflix take out an ad for it in Times Square.

1:29:33Griffin Newman:Oh yeah, go for it. They're like the best. Get those wins. Best short. Best documentary short? All the Empty Rooms. because it's about school shootings and it's from a guy who's like famous for being on TV news. So like he's kind of a celebrity.

1:29:47David Sims:There you go.

1:29:48Griffin Newman:But if not that, I think Armed with Only a Camera, which is about a journalist who died in Ukraine.

1:29:53David Sims:Okay.

1:29:54Griffin Newman:Cool.

1:29:54David Sims:We did it.

1:29:55Griffin Newman:We did it. On that cheery note. Yeah, we did that. Yeah, so don't hold us to those. These are not legally binding. Yeah. We're not responsible for your losses.

1:30:03David Sims:But if you do make money on like the market, we demand a 25 % share actually.

1:30:08Griffin Newman:I'm actually genuinely interested in, you know, before the war in Iran started, there have been people profiting really handedly and under awful circumstances on these prediction markets. I know that PricewaterhouseCoopers is supposed to be like ultra-secret, but like, how many... How many people are counting those ballots and then have that, you know... I think they do a good job locking it down, but I have to... Well, kind of unsettlingly, Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty just put $10 million each... On Begonia. Yeah, on Begonia. So that's... Uh-oh. Watch out. Faye Dunaway will emerge in a suit of tinfoil.

1:30:46Griffin Newman:Yeah. Before we go, I want to ask the three of you, just on paper, besides the Mario Galaxy movie... I know, that's going to win a lot. My tickets are literally purchased. Not joking. My daughter is so excited. I'm kind of excited about her too. But what are your sight unseen picks for next year? Frontrunner, best picture.

1:31:06David Sims:I'm not going to say The Odyssey because that's such a boring answer, but like obviously the Odyssey seems to be an enormous thing. Let's go with let's go with Disclosure Day. Spielberg. What if Spielberg brings it back around to doing a classic four quadrant you know alien pop culture hit that also people think is very good.

1:31:27Griffin Newman:And like says something about how we live or something.

1:31:29David Sims:How we live today.

1:31:30Griffin Newman:I am not going to make a best picture prediction but I am going to say that little Tommy Cruise is going to be back on the Oscar. The biggest question of the year. The movie I have circled as the most kind of like what's going on here. It's, you know, it's very high profile. Cruise has been sort of the maverick thing. Top Gun brought him back into that sort of fold a bit.

1:31:49David Sims:And it's also like this is the start of the next stage in his career. He is clearly like, I cannot keep holding on to planes forever and like breaking my ankle. David Ellison refuses

1:32:00Griffin Newman:to shoot me into space.

1:32:02David Sims:Despite my efforts. Yeah. So, yeah. I mean, yeah. huge question mark so curious about that yeah

1:32:09Griffin Newman:you know I have no sense of this year's sort of festival movies right at all it's too early it's kind of too early we just got the news that Ostland's film won't be at Cannes this year which suggests it will not be coming out this year yeah they're announcing the Cannes lineup in like early April yeah

1:32:27David Sims:also I mean like what Jordan Peele's new movie got bounced from the 2026 Jordan Peele's new movie

1:32:31Griffin Newman:is now just kind of a question oh wait what are we talking about The Bride sure Best Picture Best Everything Best Bride I don't think The Bride will win Best Picture I do think she will host next year's Oscar Maggie Gyllenhaal or The Bride The Bride herself Every winner has to dance to Puttin' on the Ritz It takes so long It's such a long show Oh that movie Let's do a bonus episode about that movie I would love to I sat close to David during that movie and you've never heard a louder sigh I was sighing Boy was I sighing minute one of that movie I'm saying just shifting in a seat I fell asleep at one point you know it was just a great great day at the movies cinema same place I saw one battle after 10 a.m.

1:33:13Griffin Newman:on a Monday not the best time for the bride 10 a.m. on a the AMC it's always a good time for the bride alright well I won't tell listeners what movie to watch next week because we're just watch the Oscars on Sunday just watch the Oscars that's what we're gonna be talking about with another special guest thank you for sticking with us this long through all 10 best picture nominees yeah we'll see you back here next week thank you David for joining us thank you I loved everything

1:33:46David Sims:critical darlings is a blank check production in association with vulture hosted by Allison Wilmore and Richard Lawson produced by Benjamin Frisch executive produced by Griffin Newman and Neil Janowitz video production and distribution by Anne Victoria Clark Wolfgang Ruth and Jennifer John