MLB Network's Harold Reynolds Previews 2025 MLB Season

0:01Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcast Radio News.

0:35This is the business of sports. You don't have to be the best in your sport to make a whole ton of money. Bloomberg Business of Sports from Bloomberg Radio. This is the Bloomberg Business of Sports, where we explore the big money issues in the world of sports. I'm Michael Barr, along with my colleagues Damien Sassauer and Vanessa Perdomo. Scarlett Fu will join us later in the show. Coming up, March Madness rolls on. We get the latest research from our friends at Bloomberg Intelligence about the value the NCAA tournament is providing, the network's carrying it. Plus, we check in with an old friend of the show, Impact Exports Group Chairman and CEO Xavier Gutierrez, for his thoughts on some of the latest headlines in sports investing and private equities growth in sports.

1:19There are limitations when you invest in a team in terms of the percentage of ownership, the structure, the debt. When you're looking at these opportunities for the hold co, not the team co, a lot more flexibility, a lot more exit opportunities, a lot more structuring. And so I believe that private equity is looking at that opportunity and that valuation increase. And I think we're barely at the first inning. All that is straight ahead on the Bloomberg Business of Sports. But first, baseball is officially back. This weekend is the first full weekend of baseball. And here now to talk about all the big storylines heading into the year is MLB Network's lead studio analyst, Harold Reynolds.

2:01First of all, congratulations on your new time slot, 5 p.m. for your new show. Here we go. Yeah, no, thank you, guys. Thanks for having me. This is like an annual yearly thing. I love it. But the new studio time, 5 o 'clock, Greg Amsinger, Dan Plesak, myself, you know, the uniqueness of it is we're usually on late at night and we're reacting in and out of games with live lookings, and that's the bulk of that show at late night. This year, from 5 to 7, we'll be able to have a lot more scripted stuff because there won't be a lot of games going at that time. So we're excited to have people know exactly where we are and when we are every day, when we'll be on, and we can craft a lot of things directly to the sport.

2:47So it's going to be a lot of fun. Well, Harold, you were just in Tokyo, and I guess I have to ask the elephant in the room the question here, will the Los Angeles Dodgers go 162-0 this season? I mean, listen to me. The record of 116 regular season wins, I think, what's it, the 1906 Cubs, the 2001 Mariners, you've got to believe that there's a real chance here that they can break that, no? There's a real chance they can pass that number, no doubt. And 162, what they play every other week, yeah, they can do that. It's like a high school schedule, right? But no, I'll tell you what, when you said the word, let's talk about Japan, I mean that statement, unbelievable.

3:24I hadn't been there since really 1988 when I went and played for the U.S. All-Star Series over there. And it was just spectacular. The fan engagement, Otani, obviously with Otani, Yamamoto and Sasaki on the Dodgers, and then Iwanaga with the Cubs and just all the five Japanese players. So they were crazy about it in their country. But they loved baseball. It was so fun. So fun. Last thing, and I'll let you guys get back at it. I've never seen this. I saw it a little bit when Aaron Judge was chasing 62, when I'm getting ready to tell you. But every time Shohei Otani came to the plate, he could step his toe out the dugout.

4:09They went crazy, okay? But as soon as he got in the batter's box and the pitcher got his sign, shook, no, yes, okay, here's my pitch, as soon as he got ready to deliver, the place was dead silent. Like 50 ,000 whispers. It was incredible. Everybody had their cameras, and they didn't say a word. And then he'd foul a ball off, and they'd go, Ah! It was incredible. You're sitting at home watching on TV. You're hitting your clicker like, did the volume break? What's going on here? Crazy. Well, we got to talk about that, Harold. I mean, it's so interesting, obviously, with Otani. Obviously, we know he's, you know, the best show in the game.

4:49and it's really we're seeing something we haven't seen before and he's supposedly supposed to get back on the mound this year. What do you think about that? Should he really try and get back on the mound this year? I mean, one MVP without getting on the mound? Do we see it again? Do we stop giving him the MVP at some point, even though we know he could get it every single season? Absolutely he gets back on the mound. And if he wins the MVP every year, it's okay with me. I mean, look, we're coming across something you will never, ever see again. And I grew up on the West Coast. I grew up in Oregon.

5:23And when John Wooden had his teams coming through and they were winning those 88 straight and all that stuff, one of my brothers would say to me, you better recognize greatness when it's upon you. You'll never see it again. The 0-1 is hit high and deep right field. If it's fair, it's gone. And that one is fair. And a home run, a towering home run into the second deck for Shohei Otani. And I believe that. We will never see anybody like Ohtani again. Just recognize it and enjoy it. Well, yeah, Harold. I mean, I couldn't agree more. And I mean, certainly, you know, if you're Michael Barr and, you know, you just got paid your bonus here at Bloomberg and you're firing up your FanDuel account, plus 275.

6:02I don't remember a team coming into the season at plus 275 to win the World Series. And that's where the Dodgers are today. And a lot of it has to do with the fact that the Yankees lost Garrett Cole, their ace, you know. I think that kind of skewed the betting lines. Talk to us about some of the other teams, the Braves, the Yankees, the Mets, the Phillies, the Orioles. Are those the teams that have the next best shot of potentially getting a win against the Dodgers this season? Well, what the Dodgers have done, they have such great pitching depth. So that's beyond all the Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Shohei and all that.

6:33Let's go to pitching. But teams that can contend, I think the National League East is loaded. The Phillies are still a team that's going to be really good. The Braves are very young, and they continue to do things excellent. And then, obviously, the Mets have jumped into fray. But I think the one thing that, as I look down the stretch, it's not how you start. It's who can add when they need it. And all those teams I just talked about can add because they have a minor league system or they have young players that they can trade, they can go do. Those are the things that I would look at. Who has the cachet that can go trade a player?

7:10Seattle has six pitchers. They can go get a player if they need it. I'm not saying that that's the team to beat. I like the Rangers for that fact. There's a few teams I think that can, in a series, knock off anybody. That's the beauty of our sport. But the Dodgers are clearly loaded. I would not bet against them. But if there's a way to look at maybe another club stepping up, that would be it. And I think there's one pitcher out there, Sandy Alcantara with the Marlins. I've been saying it from all winter. When he threw his first pitch at 100 miles an hour back healthy again in spring training the first game, every team gravitated to him.

7:49And I think he's a division changer. He's a playoff pitcher. And he's a guy that could take you over the top. You know, he's a guy the Yankees can go get. And now you're back in the fold again. He's that kind of a pitcher. So I'd keep my eyes on him. And then I'd keep my eyes on the Dodgers and if anybody can add to beat them. Well, we've talked about the best. Now we've got to talk about the rest. And I'm going to compare it to I-80. There's a big sinkhole in New Jersey where I travel, and I got a detour. And the poor team that is in that sinkhole, the Chicago White Sox. What is it going to take to get that team at least put something on the board, fellas?

8:29I don't think they're going to lose 120 or whatever it was last year again. And that will affect the whole division. You know, it was easy for them to have, you know, whether they have two or three teams out of the Central last year make the playoffs because they beat up on the White Sox every day. They'll be better. How do they turn it around? They've got some young prospects coming. But it's going to come down to eventually they have to sign some free agents. And you can't just say our farm system is going to be better than everybody else. and the disadvantage of today is now you have a draft lottery.

9:04You have more of a slotted draft. You can't sit there and say, I'll wait for this guy. I'll pay him more money and we'll get him in the fifth round. That doesn't happen anymore. So it's a little harder to turn it around than it was maybe 10 or 15 years ago when the Astros were able to turn it all around and get things going in Houston. Harold, do you think one of those reasons, you know, where we, Michael said it there, it's the best and then the rest. Do you think one of those reasons it really is, it goes back to the owners who are willing to spend? I mean, I feel like they've sort of broken the system again, that their Yankees are almost getting beat at their own game at this point by the Dodgers and by the Mets obviously stealing Soto.

9:45Does that actually have this cachet? Is it worse now than it ever has been before, do you think, between teams that are willing to spend and teams that aren't willing to? Well, I think what is the challenge is the system has changed. You don't have young players signing long-term contracts when offered. You look at the Braves even four or five years ago, right? You get Albies signed a long-term deal, Acuna does. All these young players took$100 million,$30 million,$50 million. Now they're Vlad Jr. saying$500 is not enough. And so how the Blue Jays are going to sign a guy like that comes out of your system.

10:23I think that's been more of an effect on how the sport is being played than necessarily ownership trying to spend big money on free agents. If you can't lock up guys that you've had in your system for six years before they're a free agent, then how are you going to be able to compete? And that was always something that the Guardians, who were the Indians back in the day, were able to do. They locked up all their young players, Alomar and Lofton and Tomey and all those guys, and they could make a run. Even the Yankees back in the day, you know, they get the moniker for the evil empire, but you locked up Jeter, Posada, Rivera, guys that are in your minor league system to long-term deals.

11:04That doesn't happen today because players are not taking those long-term deals. And that's why the Braves are where they're at in the position they're in. And so I think that's been more of a problem than necessarily the owners not spending. Hard to say honors are spending when you got over$5 billion in salaries out in baseball. You know, that's hard to say. It's just the Dodgers and the Mets alone, honestly. Well, you know, I mean, Harold, we're talking big numbers here. We're talking big money. I'm going to give you a number here. $6.1 billion. That's what the Celtics just went for, and they don't even own their own stadium.

11:38That's 16 times total revenue. That's the price. That's the ticket. Now, if you look at Major League Baseball, on average, teams in Major League Baseball are trading at 6.6 times revenue, significantly less than that, right? And it's actually the lowest of, you know, the major sports plus Major League Soccer, which trades at a 9.4x. So, you know, what I need to know is just how much higher can the value of the New York Yankees at$8.4 billion or the Dodgers at$7.7 billion go? I mean, are we capped here now, finally? I mean, or is it really just anyone's guess? I mean, can these valuations continue to explode from here?

12:10I think they can continue to explode because there's only 30 of them. It's a rare gem. You know, that's the uniqueness of it. And even the other sports, we're starting to see more soccer franchises are going to come along. You're going to see even football is expanding. Baseball eventually will probably expand as well. But right now, you've got 30 teams. So that is like a jewel. Our thanks to Harold Reynolds for joining us. He's MLB Network's lead studio analyst. And, of course, a 12-year MLB pro and two-time AL All-Star. Up next, we turn to March Madness and all the businesses looking to make big money this year during the tournament.

12:50My colleagues Damien Sassauer and Vanessa Perdomo, I'm Michael Barr. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business of Sports from Bloomberg Radio around the world. This is Bloomberg Business of Sports from Bloomberg Radio. This is the Bloomberg Business of Sports where we explore the big money issues in the world of sports. I'm Michael Barr, along with my colleagues Damian Sassauer and Vanessa Perdomo. March Madness is well underway, and our colleagues at Bloomberg Intelligence have been tracking how a lot of businesses are looking to earn big with all the interest in the games. The men's tournament alone could draw over a billion dollars in ad money.

13:30To take a deep dive into who's looking to win big and how cord-cutting is factoring in, we bring in Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Media Analyst, Geetha Ragganoffan and Bloomberg Intelligence equities analyst Kevin Neer. Geetha, Kevin, welcome to the Bloomberg Business of Sports. I'm going to start this one with Geetha. Geetha, and this is about March Madness. Paramount, yeah, Geetha, they seem to be enjoying March Madness so far, at least maybe ratings-wise. Yes, they are. So, you know, again, we come back to this point over and over again, Michael. So sports tends to be the most resilient genre on linear TV.

14:11If you just kind of look at it big picture, it makes up about 30 percent of all linear TV viewing. But what's even more important is that it makes up 45 percent of total ad sales. So really, really important for all of the media companies and definitely for Paramount as well, which along with Warner Brothers Discovery has the rights to the NCAA March Madness. And of course, majority of the games this time around. so it keeps alternating between CBS and the Turner Networks. And of course, CBS this year will have the semis and the finals. And so they're going to have a big, big ad haul, as you just pointed out.

14:47Yeah, but Geetha, aren't fees getting higher? I mean, isn't it getting more and more expensive to pay for these slots, to pay for these sports and to pay for these sponsorship rights, and then to make money off of them and sell those ads? I mean, talk to us a little bit about the margins. Yeah, you bring up an excellent point, Damien. So sports, yes, they are definitely very lucrative in terms of ad dollars. But at the same time, all of these media companies are dealing with rights fees escalating at astronomical rates. We've seen rights fees go up something like 30, 40 percent in every renewal cycle.

15:19And actually, this is really timely because even for the NCAA Men's March Madness tournament, we're actually seeing rights fees step up pretty significantly this year. So this is when, you know, in 2025 is when the new extension goes into effect. And so we're seeing, you know, both of these companies pay the NCAA about over or close to about a billion dollars in rights fees. That's up from about 800 million. So, yes, sports is an expensive proposition. And sometimes in some cases, as you rightly mentioned, Damien, it is a loss leader. In this case, we actually think they're able to attract just about enough ad dollars to cover the rights fees.

16:01So hopefully it will not be a loss making proposition. But you're absolutely right. This is a very, very tricky game because rights fees continue to keep going up in every renewal cycle. Interesting to me that it's going to be continued even this year. Obviously, you said they're going to have a big hole for for the semifinals and for for the rest of the tournament, even though this year is the first time that we don't really have any Cinderella stories going into the Sweet 16 and beyond, really. There won't be as big of a draw. Is that not halting the idea that there's going to be a drop off in viewership or anything like that for advertisers?

16:37Yeah, so that's a great observation. So Vanessa, ratings so far, despite the fact that there have been no dramatic upsets, ratings have actually been really strong. So in the early games, we've seen men's games averaging about 9.5 million viewers. But that's actually the highest in about 30 years. Sports betting tends to be a key reason. But we are continuing to see really, really strong numbers across the board. I think it's up about 8 % to 9 % from last year. So I don't necessarily think we're anticipating a big drop-off. And remember, most of these ad spots, they've already been committed to and spoken for.

17:15So that's all good money at this point. Let's bring in Kevin Neer here. Kevin Neer for our audience is the senior associate analyst on Geetha's team, but he focuses on tickets. He focuses on StubHub, Live Nation, all that fun stuff. And, you know, Kevin, I just got to ask you, where are ticket prices coming in this year? I mean, look, we've asked a lot of people on the show, you know, where are we in the business cycle? Are people willing to pay or households willing to pay these higher prices? I guess their question for you is, are they? Yeah, they are so far. I mean, ticket prices have been at record levels.

17:42coming out of the pandemic, we saw just incredible pent-up demand, explosive demand for live events. People wanted to get out of their house. They wanted to go see these must-see events. So ticket prices are already at record highs. And now looking out into this year, really the question is demand, right? I mean, on the supply side, if you look at the concert pipeline, you have a lot of stadium activity, which is great. Dua Lipa, Metallica, Coldplay, Kendrick. There's tons of stuff on the concert side. So that's all good. And then on the sports side, obviously, again, it just really comes down to demand.

18:12I A big tailwind that the venues themselves are pushing deeper and deeper into VIP clubs, luxury boxes, really, really driving up those prices. I think just recently, the Florida Panthers raised their season ticket prices. Recently, the Buffalo Bills raised their season ticket prices. So, it's all going up. But really, and especially on the resale market, what matters most is demand. So, we're going to be taking a close look at consumer confidence and seeing that trend this year. Well, while Damien is crowd surfing at the concert, I remember, and take this from an old man here and help me understand what's happening today.

18:47When you wanted a ticket to go see the Detroit Tigers, you had to go to the ticket office at Michigan and Trumbull. Okay, I want these tickets, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And if you were really fancy, you'd buy the season tickets there, and that was it. Right. And then it all changed, man. It all changed. StubHub and everything going secondary ticket markets. Explain that evolution. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we are in the internet age, of course. And right now, ticketing is just dominated by Ticketmaster, right? Especially the primary market or the original issuance market. A big part of that is these exclusive contracts that Ticketmaster has with some of the biggest venues, the stadiums, the arenas.

19:29That's really been locked up for the most part. On the secondary side, what we've been seeing is that StubHub has been taking a lot of share, because they've just been spending so aggressively on marketing. So, the past few years, we've seen their gross order volume really explode, which has been great for them. If you look outside of the U.S., though, you're absolutely right. Resale markets are predominantly offline. They are heavily regulated in a lot of markets. So, StubHub will have an uphill climb under their Viagogo brand internationally. They'll have a very significant uphill climb internationally, but it's a big market.

20:00There's a lot of open feel out there see Vanessa if I wanted tickets back in the old day to Tiger Stadium I'd see Benny right outside and he'd like give me something for the second level that's the way the secondary market used to work right you know but you still have to stand outside sometime you can go to Broadway if you want to see Broadway play you go in person to avoid fees because that's the biggest problem with some of these with some of these platforms right it's it's the it's the extra fees and everything that people seem not willing to pay but it seems like I guess if if uh they're still if the ticket market's going up, then I guess it's no problem.

20:33Must be fine. Yeah. But one of the things I wanted to ask you about, Kevin, is like before we were talking about March Madness, you know, ratings are going up even though with cord cutting and we were talking about how you said it's saying that$1.1 billion would bring in just from the men's side of March Madness. What about the women's side? Because last year the championship for the women outdrew the men by 4 million viewers. So what are we seeing on that side? And did we see more advertising fever for the women's side this year? Yeah, there's definitely a little bit of lagging going on with the women's side.

21:06You're seeing just this unbelievable explosion in engagement across that side. Now, for the women's March Madness tournament this year, ratings are down a little bit against those just incredible record numbers that you just mentioned. We'll have to see for the next few rounds kind of what happens, again, on the TV rating side, just with Juju Watkins going down with the injury. But again, the women's sports side is a huge amount of upside, right? I mean, just look at what's happening in the WNBA. And yes, this is, you know, the Kate and Clark effect. But we're seeing almost on the daily basis announcements of teams that are playing against the Indiana Fever.

21:39They're moving those games to bigger venues, right? They're moving those games to arena-sized venues because there's just so much interest in the women's side. Well, Gith, I'd love to bring you back in here because, you know, and Kevin as well. I mean, I'd love to hear your thoughts because I know, you know, you both live in a world where, you know, it's quarter to quarter. But just how far ahead are you looking? Are you guys paying attention to the FIFA World Cup and the run-up to that? I mean, we're a little more than a year out here. And I mean, I, for one, my wife just kind of pinged me down.

22:06She's like, listen, StubHub, we can get tickets for the champion at the Meadowlands. And so, you know, I mean, is that real? Are we really seeing the beginnings of this FIFA World Cup buildup? Not yet. Not yet. In fact, FIFA actually put out a warning saying, be very careful about speculative buying on any of these resale sites. They mentioned StubHub. They mentioned Vivid. So keep an eye out, Tami. You've got to be careful out there. I haven't bought anything yet, right? I mean, Gita told me not to buy. I'm not buying. Those World Cup tickets are going to be sold directly on FIFA's website. But yes, I mean, it's a huge opportunity for StubHub in 2026.

22:39There's a lot of upside, obviously big demand for an event like that. So a lot of those tickets will be hitting the resale markets eventually. And that's a big part of why we think they're launching this IPO now, even with these, let's call them tumultuous market conditions. They want to get ahead of that big event. And then obviously, even looking out even further, there's the Olympics in 28 as well. And Geetha, by the way, look out for the fake sites and talk more about it. Don't buy from StumpHub, okay? Got it. There is a problem, though. I mean, you got, you know, the crooks is the best way I can describe it, that will try to cheat people over their money with a fake website or this or that, whatever.

23:22and you have to be careful out there. Well, I mean, here's my other question, Michael Barn. I just have to jump in here. Taylor Swift's Ares Tour. You know, we're still feeling the reverberations from that. You know, we have Beyonce this year. I mean, but I got to believe you guys, you know, are expecting a year-over-year decrease in terms of a lot of, you know, in terms of just top line, right? Because, I mean, wasn't Taylor Swift just such an incredible force of nature? Nothing can possibly compete, or am I wrong, Kevin? Let's look at it in two different ways, right? On the primary side, Live Nation says, you know, No tour is ever going to be more than 1 % of their revenue.

23:51So that part aside, yes, StubHub absolutely caught some tailwinds from the resale pricing. I mean, you saw some just ludicrous prices on those tickets. But again, there's still healthy demand. There's a lot more concerts in stadiums this year, which means bigger venues, so more attendance, more seat capacity, and then higher average prices as well. So you're not wrong. You're not wrong. It's really going to come down to ultimately where demand is shaking out. Geitha, I want to talk about gross merchandise sales. And they did pretty strong, that$12.8 billion. Can you expand more into that? Oh, absolutely.