In short
Rich Greenfield (Lightshed Partners) discusses David Ellison’s Paramount acquisition and the planned follow-on purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery, focusing on how the companies will integrate streaming, leadership, and sports/broadcast economics; the California antitrust case; upcoming NFL TV-rights leverage and possible consolidation; and Meta’s AI agent “Muse” plus near-term AI content production impacts.
Guest
Rich Greenfield, analyst/investor at Lightshed Partners; long-time media/tech investor covering streaming, media deals, and AI.
Key claims
Ellisons’ priority is scaling fast to match Netflix, likely via one streaming service and major integration decisions (staffing, HBO/Paramount branding, tiers). Sports rights (NFL/CBS) make linear TV financially necessary for funding streaming; streaming-only NFL math doesn’t work for most players. California antitrust outcome showed Paramount’s political leverage. NFL can reopen packages after Paramount’s August 2025 change of control, with ~10 months remaining before a decision.
Notable examples
Netflix/YouTube as streaming leaders; Peacock’s “Bravoverse” as innovation; Amazon’s Thursday Night Football as an outlier; Meta Muse shopping price-finding; Suno v6 Warner Music deal; AI video progress enabling minute-by-minute generation and eventual long-form assembly.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VODavid Ellison's Paramount-Warner Deal
0:04 to 0:43
Discussion about David Ellison's acquisition of Warner Brothers and its implications.
“They bring payments, inventory, staff, scheduling, and online orders into one easy-to-use system.”
David Ellison's Paramount-Warner Deal
1:06 to 2:27
Discussion about David Ellison's acquisition of Warner Brothers and its implications.
“I'm also chief correspondent at Business Insider.”
Plans for the New Empire
2:27 to 3:10
Rich Greenfield shares insights on what the Ellisons may do next with their new media assets.
“I think you're still reeling from the Paramount deal from last week.”
Challenges of Merging Media Assets
3:10 to 6:05
Exploration of the complexities involved in integrating Paramount and Warner Brothers.
“I mean, look, I think at the end of the day, you know, when you have Ellison is 43, he is wildly ambitious.”
The Future of Cable and Streaming
6:05 to 11:23
Discussion on the viability of cable networks versus streaming services in the future.
“Like, there's a lot of things that they're working on and sort of, it's really hard to analyze right now because they haven't said very much since they announced the acquisition.”
Tech Influence on Paramount's Strategy
11:23 to 14:01
Examining the potential impact of technology in improving Paramount's streaming service.
“Could they whittle down their cable networks?”
Navigating Streaming Challenges in Content Discovery
14:01 to 16:41
Explore the challenges streaming services face in content diversity and user engagement.
“Those are the primary areas of where people sort of focus their time and attention.”
Government and Ellison's Leverage
18:12 to 24:46
Discuss the implications of government actions on Ellison's business strategy and negotiations.
“You had been pretty loud on this saying, you know, the government seems to have most of the cards.”
The Future of NFL Broadcast Rights
24:46 to 28:03
Analyze the potential shifts in NFL broadcast rights amid industry changes.
“Is there a version where they are a little happier a couple years from now because there's one or two fewer options for them and it's more consolidated?”
Excitement Around Meta's Muse
28:15 to 29:48
Discussion on the potential of Meta's AI agent Muse and its utility for consumers.
“You're very bullish on Meta, I think largely because of Muse.”
Show all 16 chapters
Muse's Role in Shopping and AI Tools
29:48 to 31:44
Exploration of Muse's functionality and its effectiveness in the e-commerce space.
“And so it's not about Meta being the ultimate winner of AI.”
The Future of AI Agents vs Chatbots
31:44 to 34:19
Analysis of the differences between AI agents like Muse and traditional chatbots.
“in terms of like the last probably 20 years that I've been writing.”
Advancements in AI Content Creation
34:19 to 37:59
Discussion on the capabilities of AI in producing music and video content quickly.
“that doesn't eventually have them cut out, right?”
The Impact of AI on Media and Content Quality
37:59 to 40:38
Examination of how AI will influence content production quality and distribution.
“My guess is it's within the next 12 to 18 months.”
Navigating Traditional Media in an AI Era
40:38 to 42:02
Insights on how traditional media companies should adapt to the rise of AI-driven content.
“Like, do you really see any of these companies or do they focus on what they own and create?”
The Blurring Lines of Content Creation
42:02 to 44:20
Explore how consumer perceptions are changing in the content landscape.
“I think you're going to need all forms of content because I think, you know, the consumer, you know, the viewer, my kids, your kids, for sure, they do not distinguish between something that costs millions of dollars.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:01Peter Kafka:Support for this show comes from Square. We all know business owners need to wear a ton of hats, but it's about time you got a hat rack so you can simplify your operations. Square's got you covered. They bring payments, inventory, staff, scheduling, and online orders into one easy-to-use system. If you're starting a business or running one that deserves better tools, Square helps you sell, manage, and grow without slowing down. Right now, you can get up to$200 off Square hardware at square.com slash go slash channels. That's square.com slash go slash channels. Run your business smarter with Square.
0:39Peter Kafka:Get started today.
0:42Rich Greenfield:Ellison talks a very big game. He's got very big ambitions. He's obviously been very distracted by this entire process of first winning Paramount, then beating Netflix, now beating the government. It has been probably not the last 12 months that he anticipated.
1:05Peter Kafka:From the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is Channels with Peter Kafka. That's me. I'm also chief correspondent at Business Insider. And today we're talking about streaming and sports and AI, kind of all the things or at least most of the things we like to talk about on channels. We have a favorite channel's guests on to talk about all of that. Rich Greenfield, the analyst investor at Lightshed Partners. First up, hey, did you hear David Ellison and his father are buying Warner Brothers? You probably did. This is a deal that has gone on for a full year. Many of us thought it would keep going even longer.
1:43Peter Kafka:And then last week, it was all over. The state of California, the last major obstacle the Ellisons faced, basically gave up. And now David Ellison, who was a relatively anonymous movie producer just two years ago, is now one of the most important men in media. So what's he going to do with that empire now that he owns it? Also on today's agenda, there is some interesting stuff brewing with the NFL and its TV partners slash clients. Nothing's changing today, but there is a lot of jockeying going on about new, different deals we might see in the next couple of years. And finally, if you are looking for someone to tell you why Muse, Meta's new AI agent, is truly a big deal, Rich is your guy for that too.
2:26Peter Kafka:Okay, so here's me talking to Rich Greenfield.
2:36Peter Kafka:Rich Greenfield, welcome back. Thanks for having me, Peter. You're very low key today. I think you're still reeling from the Paramount deal from last week. I didn't podcast about it, mostly because I was out of town. But also, I got to say, it felt a little anticlimactic. It felt like we were going to be, we in the media and the outside world, we're going to be given weeks or months of battling between the state and the Ellisons. And I want to talk to you about what happened in the end. But let's spin forward. Larry Ellison and David Ellison got what they want. They got Paramount, and now they got Warner Brothers Discovery.
3:09Peter Kafka:What do they do next? I mean, look, I think at the end of the day, you know, when you have Ellison is 43, he is wildly ambitious. You know, he's still in the very early stages of proving that he can run one large media company, let alone two. But I think the most important thing to think of, Peter, is this is, you know, there is an urgency at Paramount and Skydance to get to scale. And I think, you know, if you were to take some of the other people in the industry you may have talked to, like an Eddie Q, right, at Apple. Apple has had a very patient approach, right?
3:50Rich Greenfield:Like, have they built an incredible set of programs, you know, and TV series? Absolutely. But they certainly haven't scaled a library. They don't have the meat of a service.
4:04Peter Kafka:No, Apple is also not in the media business, right? They're in the media business as an aside. That's not their core business. This is what David Ellison, backed by his father, needs to make happen. And I think their view is that if you're going to be in the media business, they have put their laser sight on Netflix.
4:24Rich Greenfield:They want to be Netflix, and they feel like the fastest way to scale to the size and importance of a company like Netflix was not just simply investing more in Paramount, but was to buy Warner Brothers to get to scale as fast as humanly possible. And so now they're likely going to close in a matter of days, if not weeks. And I think the real thing that Wall Street and certainly that we are going to be obsessing about is how do they combine these? And what I mean by that is what executives they pick. Right. I mean, there's a lot of very critical decisions that are likely to get made. Are people brought in from the outside?
5:12Certainly when they bought Paramount, they got rid of a lot of the old team and brought in a lot of their own team. How does that melding of the new people to Paramount versus the Warner Brothers executives who comes who goes. But then also I think one of these big decisions that's sitting out there is how do they actually combine all of these assets especially on the streaming side. You know is they've said they want to have one service. Is it all one. Do they raise the price to accommodate all of the HBO content. Do they keep the HBO brand. you know, does it become HBO on Paramount Plus or is it called HBO?
5:54I mean, there are so many,
5:56Rich Greenfield:you can already see they're sort of toying with, I don't know whether it's folding Pluto into Paramount Plus or whatever this new thing is, or creating a new ad-free tier. Like, there's a lot of things that they're working on and sort of, it's really hard to analyze right now because they haven't said very much since they announced the acquisition.
6:16Peter Kafka:So there's going to be a lot of blocking and tackling on some stuff that is going to be boring to most people. There'll be some stuff that's very exciting, like does Casey Bloys, who runs HBO, does he stick around? Cindy Holland, who built up Netflix, is now running Paramount. It doesn't seem like the two of them can be in the same place. We'll figure that out. But when we zoom out and you say, all right, they'll go through a couple years probably of integration and back and forth. What do you think they think the ultimate product looks like? You say they want to be Netflix. Netflix so far has been very disciplined about being a service that you rent and it streams movies and television shows.
6:54Peter Kafka:Paramount combined with Warner Brothers Discovery is a bunch of other things right now. There's broadcast TV. There's cable TV. Do you think eventually it becomes a streaming only service and that's what they're gunning for? Do you think it stays this sort of conglomerate? Well, you know, that's a very complicated set of questions, but I'd say from a really high level. If you think about, you know, the entire Paramount infrastructure and soon to be Warner Brothers, I mean, if you let's just think about you have 50 cable networks, five zero. Really, none of them other than, I don't know, let's be kind, CNN and probably TBS and TNT.
7:37I would probably say those are the three networks that sort of could stand up and survive if not for the power of CBS. And when I say that, that is, you know, essentially code for really the power of the NFL. Right. And so the reality is they need to be in the broadcast business because the broadcast business is what allows them to protect effectively 50 cable networks. Those sports rights from the NFL allow you to protect all of those cable networks.
8:12Rich Greenfield:And all of that cash flow is absolutely mission critical to supporting this streaming infrastructure and the leverage they put on it.
8:20Peter Kafka:You have to have the old TV infrastructure because it still makes money. And that will allow you to support everything else and pay down your debt. But do you think they're looking out five years from this and saying, OK, at some point we've sort of rung out whatever we're going to ring from the cable networks and then we sort of ditch those because that's the old world? Or do you think, no, that's that's kind of a fundamental part of our business for a long time? Well, I think the the challenge is really no one has sort of figured out what the streaming only business model for sports is. You know, Amazon can absorb those costs because of the size of Amazon.
8:57You know, does Amazon make a profit on their Thursday Night Football? I mean, you'll never know because it's there's so many pieces that go into they use it to launch an advertising business. They sell more merch. You spend more time. It is very hard to analyze sort of the NFL on Amazon.
9:17Rich Greenfield:But, you know, if all of a sudden you just moved the CBS contract for the NFL purely over to Paramount Plus, no more simulcasting, it's literally just the entire contract now sits on Paramount Plus. Peter, the math doesn't work. Like, I think that's the fundamental problem.
9:34Peter Kafka:And so where does the math work? There aren't enough Paramount subscribers to make that whole. There aren't enough eyeballs on it to make the ad the ads work. I think you would have a very hard time making the amount of subscribers at the price you needed to on a direct-to-consumer. Because remember, the beauty of the way linear TV works, they get paid retransmission consent all year long. You're part of this big bundle. And so as long as, you know, of the 65-plus million homes still taking a bundle of channels, whether it's YouTube TV.
10:11Rich Greenfield:They're all paying for CBS one way or the other. Well, and more importantly, they're not just paying for CBS, Peter. They're paying for CBS 12 months of the year. Right. And that is the critical thing versus look what happens in streaming. You know, in streaming, many people just come in and out.
10:30Peter Kafka:People who are signing up to watch sports, to watch the NFL in September. How do you keep them in January? Correct.
10:35Rich Greenfield:And I think that's the problem that you really haven't seen anyone solve yet. And that's why everyone simulcasts, right, other than Amazon. And yes, I agree. Netflix has NFL games, but there are, you know, it's five games this season. It's four games next season. It's still more stunting and eventizing. And yes, I know YouTube has Sunday Ticket, but that's a discreet product that they sell for a price. And so, again, this linear package of games is something we have not seen work. And so to answer your question, which was the original way we started out, I think it's very hard to believe while they are in the NFL business, I think it's very hard to believe they're going to get out of the CBS broadcast TV business.
11:23Rich Greenfield:Could they whittle down their cable networks? Sure. But my guess is they're going to use the power of CBS and the power of the NFL to milk as much value out of those cable networks. And if they're smart, they won't be investing aggressively in any of these cable networks. They will be putting them to as bare bones as possible.
11:40Peter Kafka:It's like running a dial-up internet business in 2010. People will still pay for it. You can still extract some value, but it declines every year. Correct. And put a pin in the NFL. I want to come back to that. Two more Paramount questions. When David Ellison was going to buy Paramount, was looking to buy Paramount, one thing you heard a lot was, you know, he's got a technology brain. His dad runs Oracle. Oracle is a big, important tech company. When these guys get their hands on Paramount, they're going to bring all kinds of tech knowledge. I haven't seen it play out, but maybe I'm missing something.
12:17Peter Kafka:Do you think there's any truth in there to the idea that people with a deep tech background could really make this combined company better than it is? Look, I think that is the hope. Is Paramount Plus a better service today than it was when they bought it? No doubt. I mean, there's definitely more TLC. If you think about the situation that Paramount was in during the Redstone, especially the tail end of the Redstone area with high leverage and struggling to pay the dividend and all of that, like they were not in a good place for aggressive investment in streaming.
12:53Rich Greenfield:Has that improved under Allison? Sure.
12:55Peter Kafka:I got to say, I'm a regular Paramount user because the Sheritans and soccer, I don't notice any difference. And I'm not complaining. It streams the stuff I want. It doesn't, I mean, the one app that seems better than everything else is Netflix, partly because they have more stuff and they're better at surfacing it to it. And also, I believe they're just better at streaming than their peers still. But beyond that, they all just sort of like, yes, if you hunt and peck, you find the thing you want and you watch it. I don't notice any difference in Paramount. Well, look, first of all, there isn't a lot more content yet.
13:25So you're hitting at the key problem that, you know, if you think about who are the two leaders in streaming today, you mentioned one of them, Netflix. The other one is obviously YouTube. And I think the reason both of those two are successful is breadth of content. Does YouTube have more? Absolutely. It's not even close.
13:42Rich Greenfield:But I do think that breadth of content is really important because, again, the more content you have, the more things you try. You know, your comment is actually really interesting when you comment that you really like Taylor Sheridan. I think most people watch Taylor Sheridan content or they watch the kids content like SpongeBob. Right. Those are the primary areas of where people sort of focus their time and attention. But if everyone's watching the same thing, it's very hard to train an algorithm. What you really need in the brilliance, obviously, of TikTok, right, is so many different signals because the content is short and there's global mass amounts.
14:20Rich Greenfield:That is certainly what makes YouTube so good at discovery. That is certainly what makes Netflix better than everyone else. And it's the challenge facing all of these companies. And so, you know, for David Ellison and for the team at Paramount, it isn't just integrating what's on Warner Brothers, because let's be clear, your comment about there not being that much or there isn't that much diversity on Paramount Plus, there isn't that much on HBO Max either. And so putting, you know, one plus one doesn't immediately equal seven. And I think the real question is, are you combining these companies and aggressively investing in substantially more content?
14:56Because both of these streaming services are undernourished and need a lot more content to win engagement and time spent per day.
15:06Rich Greenfield:Paramount has brought in a lot of people. My guess is there's still a lot more people to come as this merger happens. But, you know, in terms of like, you know, if I think about who's been the most innovative in the space, you know, let's in terms of the legacy media companies, I'm going to actually act, you know, if I think about in the last six months, I actually think Peacock. You know, I think if you look at what Bravoverse, if you haven't played with Bravoverse, which is sort of taking the entire library of Bravo, putting it into a vertical TikTok-like experience, it's still in beta, it's still really early, but they're really trying to do different things to drive engagement.
15:42Rich Greenfield:They've put games in like it. It's definitely Peacock has probably been the one that I think gets no credit on Wall Street. Yeah. But I do think they've actually been pretty innovative. We'll see. Ellison talks a very big game. He's got very big ambitions. He's obviously been very distracted by this entire process of, you know, first winning Paramount, then beating Netflix, now beating the government. It has been a, you know, probably not the last 12 months that he anticipated in terms of how he mapped this out. So I think that probably has had an impact on the things that you're talking about technologically.
16:20And we'll see. You know, again, I'm looking for I want to see what makes this feel like it's not just a place to watch four or five shows that everyone knows are the four or five shows to watch.
16:34Peter Kafka:Yeah, which in those shows are going to Peacock in a couple of years anyway, the Taylor Sheridan ones. I do want to talk about the government briefly. We'll be right back with Rich Greenfield. But first, this.
16:53Peter Kafka:Support for the show comes from Square, the system that fixes one of the biggest headaches in running a business. Starting a business is exciting. Running it is where things get complicated. You end up juggling payments, inventory, staff, scheduling online orders, reports, and somehow you're still supposed to serve customers. Square makes it easier. Whether you're selling coffee, tech accessories, or maybe a podcast, that's right, this podcast is a small business. Square helps you run your business without running yourself into the ground. It does that by bringing payments, point of sales, inventory, staffing, and online sales together in one easy-to-use system.
17:28Peter Kafka:You get sleek hardware, intuitive software, a host of AI-powered tools that help automate routine tasks, giving you more time back as a seller. With Square, you can sell online, in-store, or both, and customize your setup as your business evolves. If you're starting a business or running one that deserves better tools, Square helps you sell, manage, and grow without slowing down. Right now, you can get up to$200 off Square hardware at square.com slash go slash channels. That's square.com slash go slash channels. Run your business smarter with Square. Get started today.
Read the full transcript
18:12And we're back.
18:13Peter Kafka:You had been pretty loud on this saying, you know, the government seems to have most of the cards. While this Rob Bonta, California AG-led suit against Paramount was going on. And there was a lot of chest beating on both sides. And for a while, you kept saying, I think the states have more leverage here and that Ellison's going to have to give up something meaningful here. He's really in a bind. That didn't pan out. Bonta basically just sort of surrendered and had to do this humiliating press conference where he kept saying, I'm not surrendering.
18:48Rich Greenfield:He looked like he was going to cry.
18:50Peter Kafka:It was very sad. I'd never seen Rob Bonta on stage before. And the idea that he's a credible candidate for California governor became hard for me to swallow. Anyway, enough of that. What do you think happened? I mean, it seems like the obvious thing was Ellison threatened to leave California and enough people took him seriously and convinced Bonta to fold. Am I missing something? I think this is politics, right? I mean, it feel, you know, he was on TV the Thursday before saying structural remedies are required. End of story.
19:23Rich Greenfield:And he agreed to something that three days later that had nothing to do with structural remedies. So, again, it's hard to analyze other than Paramount has proven incredibly adept at playing the political game and using their leverage to get the outcomes they want.
19:44Peter Kafka:Do you think that is the now the playbook? I mean, we are used to that playbook in professional sports, right? If you don't give me my new stadium, if you don't pay$2 billion for my new stadium, I'm going to leave. And sometimes the sports franchises do leave. And very often that threat is enough to get the local municipality to pay for their stadium. Is this now the playbook for Ellison for future deals and or other people in Hollywood? That's a really good question. I mean, look, you know, the reality is we'll never know exactly what transpired. but you know it it really felt like this was a political breakdown where the pressure just became too high and ellison won and it was you know look we were wrong i mean there's no other way to code it like we just assumed that when they said structural remedies or bust they meant it we didn't anticipate you know crumbling and saying yeah you know what just basically agree to what
20:45Rich Greenfield:you've been saying over the last several months and we'll paper it and we'll be good. And that was really the reason we were so vocal in saying, just get, you know, just settle and give up something because it's not worth going to court. Even if you're right on the law, like we can debate the antitrust merits till we're blue in the face. At the end of the day, you still have the whimsicality of a judge and the uncertainty of it.
21:08Peter Kafka:It was shocking. They didn't give him a fig leaf. They didn't even give him one One little minor concession. Nothing. Nothing. We were talking about the NFL. You've been covering this. You cover this all the time. The NFL is kind of the core to TV. Maybe it is. Linear TV. Yes. Broadcast. Linear TV, for sure. And there's this dance going back and forth with the NFL and its partners slash clients slash people it usually has over a barrel where everyone sort of expects the NFL to win whatever negotiation they're in because they're the NFL. But you've been saying, look, the NFL, we were used to the NFL taking its product and slicing it ever thinner, right?
21:46Peter Kafka:Amazon gets a game. Netflix gets a game. It's all additional revenue. They're able to manufacture new revenue from the same product they've had by bringing in more buyers. There seems to be an endless supply of buyers. You're throwing up the idea that actually that's not going to be the case and there's going to be some kind of consolidation. I'm trying to figure out how that works. The Paramount Skydance deal closed in August of 2025. So that was a change of control for Paramount. Paramount or that change of control clause gives the NFL the ability to open up the deal. So they have two years from the day it closed.
22:21So you have two years from August. So we are a little over a year in, right? You're 14 months in. So you have another 10 months before the NFL has to decide, are they triggering that change
22:33Rich Greenfield:of control? Which, again, I don't think the NFL has any desire to not be in the CBS or in the Paramount business. Right.
22:40Peter Kafka:Just spell it out. In theory, the NFL has the ability next summer to say, actually, we've been working with CBS for decades, but we want to see what else is out there. This package of games is now open. Someone else can bid for it. Or better yet, pay us more money or we will shop this to others. Yes. Yes. Right.
22:59Rich Greenfield:And look, to be clear, the NFL has an option on everyone's business, not just CBS's after the 2029 season. The NFL has the ability today. I mean, And let's just be very, very clear with listeners. They could say today, we are exercising our option on UABC or UCBS or UNBC. We're not even giving you the right to match. And we have sold your package to somebody else. Like that right exists. Whether the NFL would ever do that is a whole nother question. I think the one thing that's important for you to think about, though, is Paramount is in the process of a major transaction. Disney has a brand new CEO and I think is trying to figure out what is the ultimate, you know, how does Disney evolve or change?
23:48Universal's about or NBC Universal's about to split from Comcast.
23:54Rich Greenfield:And on top of that, Fox is involved in the largest merger of its history, you know, transaction wise.
24:01Peter Kafka:By the way, that's Roku, which no one pays attention to, but it's a big deal.
24:04Rich Greenfield:I'm just saying that's the biggest acquisition in Fox's history. So I'm just saying you put all of that together and all of the major partners of the NFL for broadcast are in sort of a state of flux. And so in twenty twenty nine, in theory, they can they could literally say we're exercising the options on everyone. Here is what the new packages look like. We are changing it. What do you want to buy?
24:27Peter Kafka:It's a whole new game board. We're rearranging everything. I'm assuming it more or less stays intact because there's benefit to the NFL for doing that. But is there any possibility that the people who say, and there's a lot of them, say, it's too confusing to watch football. There's games on different networks on different days, and I don't even have all the packages and blah, blah, blah. Is there a version where they are a little happier a couple years from now because there's one or two fewer options for them and it's more consolidated? Maybe. I mean, look, that's possible. Although I will say, remember, the vast majority of consumers are still in the bundle and they're in the bundle, not just because the NFL issue that you mentioned, but watching sports in general.
25:10Rich Greenfield:Yeah, like, yeah, sure. Are there people that take ESPN Unlimited and Fox One and Paramount Plus and Peacock? And, you know, can you assemble all of this for cheaper? You literally can. There's no doubt you can make. Could you get an antenna and do this for cheaper? Sure. But the vast majority of people are choosing a YouTube TV or a Comcast or DirecTV because it still makes watching live sports easier. And so, you know, there are definitely complaints. Look, there's complaints about TV shows. Oh, this show is on Paramount Plus and this show is on Peacock. And wait, what is that show Silo on Apple?
25:49Rich Greenfield:And where is Beast in Me on it's on Netflix?
25:51Peter Kafka:Like I'm very unsympathetic to this argument because there's Google and you can find the thing you want. And even better, you can drop these packages. You can stop paying for these services when you don't want to watch the shows anymore. Anyway, it's funny you say that, because I do think that that the lack of friction. I mean, if you think about the world that you and I grew up in, Peter, we've both been doing this way too long. That's very old. Yes.
26:13Rich Greenfield:And so but if you think about how hard it was to cancel, right, like signing up and canceling, getting someone to come out, You had to leave work and be home for the installer. You had to go stand online and hand in your cable box when you were done with it. Versus now signing up for Disney Plus or Netflix or Hulu or even YouTube TV is a couple clicks of a buck.
26:32Peter Kafka:It's one click and unsubscribing is a couple clicks.
26:36Rich Greenfield:Hey, my Muse agent may be able to like say, hey, you're not using Peacock.
26:41Peter Kafka:You got me. This is where I want to go. Let's talk about Muse. Let's talk about Meta. I'll be right back with Rich Greenfield. But first, a word from a sponsor.
26:52Peter Kafka:support for the show comes from square the system that fixes one of the biggest headaches in running a business starting a business is exciting running it is where things get complicated you end up juggling payments inventory staff scheduling online orders reports and somehow you're still supposed to serve customers square makes it easier whether you're selling coffee tech accessories or maybe a podcast that's right this podcast is a small business Square helps you run your business without running yourself into the ground. It does that by bringing payments, point of sales, inventory, staffing, and online sales together in one easy-to-use system.
27:29Peter Kafka:You get sleek hardware, intuitive software, a host of AI-powered tools that help automate routine tasks, giving you more time back as a seller. With Square, you can sell online, in-store, or both and customize your setup as your business evolves. If you're starting a business or running one that deserves better tools, Square helps you sell, manage, and grow without slowing down. Right now, you can get up to$200 off Square hardware at square.com slash go slash channels. That's square.com slash go slash channels. Run your business smarter with Square. Get started today.
28:15Peter Kafka:And we're back. You're very bullish on Meta, I think largely because of Muse. I just came back from their conference last week and they were showing off fancy new glasses, but the real push is Muse. Why are you excited about Muse? And if you're, I don't know, I think if you listen to this, you understand what Muse is. It's their AI agent that can, in theory, do all kinds of things like find where your TV shows are, but more importantly, I think they want you to use it as a shopping bot. Why are you excited about Muse? I mean, let's just put it very simply. We're going to save you time and we're going to save you money.
28:48Rich Greenfield:Those are two pretty, you know, for a normal person, not for a tech geek. I'm not talking Mark Zucker. I'm saying for the average consumer, for your friends, Peter, for my friends who are not in this crazy tech world, the basic proposition of here's a tool that will help you save time and will save you money or get you money back. Those are that's a pretty compelling user proposition. And remember, everyone's been all excited about Anthropic and I love Claude and I use OpenAI and I've used Gemini. But the the idea that this is so easy to use. and everyone has just counted Meta out. Like, you know, I can't tell you how many investors just ignored Meta a year ago, six months ago.
29:37Rich Greenfield:And I think when you start playing with Muse, you realize it is a really easy to use, very simple, easy to understand for the average person. And you're seeing very rapid adoption. And so it's not about Meta being the ultimate winner of AI. I mean, that's obviously Mark Zuckerberg's goal. But whether or not they are the ultimate winner, what it proves, Peter, is Meta is a real player. Their significant investment in AI actually has a there there.
30:10Peter Kafka:They've got the money to invest in AI and they have the surface, right? The user base where they can tell a couple billion people, there's a new thing we'd like you to try. Here it is. Click this button. Boom, you're in a chatbot. it. You know, the largest competitor to date is a company called Instinct. It's a startup. It was
30:29Rich Greenfield:just valued at$10 billion. They are limiting invites like they have to control how much usage you have because they don't have the resources and scale and compute resources of a meta. And so and not to mention, meta knows a tremendous amount about you. And so its ability to deliver a great experience and to start connecting. I mean, how far away are we from, you know, you see something on Instagram that you want to buy and rather than just buy it, it says buy with Muse and Muse doesn't just go out and buy you the product. It finds you the cheapest price anywhere on the Internet to get that item.
31:09Rich Greenfield:That's where it gets really interesting.
31:11Peter Kafka:If there's a world where the shopping doesn't really take off the way Mark Zuckerberg hopes and people are occasionally doing some transactions, but they're not really using Muse as their sort of primary way they're buying and selling stuff or at least paying for stuff. Is Muse still important then just because it's a big AI tool that lots of people are using, even if they're not using it the way Mark Zuckerberg thought they would?
31:33Rich Greenfield:This is the most unmetaproduct in the history of metaproducts because every metaproduct you've ever used, actually most internet products that you use, we talk a lot about this. in terms of like the last probably 20 years that I've been writing. It's all about winning time spent engagement. This product from Meta, rather than sort of the dopamine of Instagram and Facebook with reels where you never leave. That's the goal, like with TikTok, right? Like you never leave. We want to keep you in your universe. Netflix wants show after show, right? The auto start, you know, think about how they never want you to leave.
32:09Rich Greenfield:The whole point of Muse, let's get you, let's save you time so that you can go spend time with other things. That is a completely different paradigm.
32:18Peter Kafka:Yeah. Let's see how that plays out because all the chatbots, it's not just Muse, definitely ChatGPT, the others all say, hey, could I do something else for you? Now that I've done this, is there some other task, some related task I could do? They're very thirsty, right? They want you to keep coming back, which I can understand from their perspective. But I do think there's a, and I think you'll see soon from ChatGPT, their own agent sort of - We're recording this on Monday. On Tuesday, they've got a big developer thing. You're going to hear this podcast on Wednesday. And at this point, there may be an OpenAI Muse competitor.
32:56But where I was going with this is, my guess is, or I think it's important to delineate for your audience, that chatbots and Muse or chatbots and whatever, you know, if you think about chatbots versus the Muse instinct and even what Gemini launched with Spark, these are fundamentally different products. This is not just, you know, sort of an answer engine. This is not co-work in the same way.
33:24Rich Greenfield:The beauty of this is it's learning about Peter. It's learning about Rich. And as it gets smarter and better. It is taking tasks, either asking you to do them or in some cases, actually just doing them behind the scenes for you. And I think that as it starts to take on tasks autonomously in the background that save you time that you do repeatedly, all of a sudden it takes on a very different use case and becomes very ingrained in your behavior. And so, again, Mark's vision of taking a cut of every transaction. And you mentioned Amazon. Amazon is obviously blocking Muse for the moment. My guess is that is temporary.
34:10Amazon, at the end of the day, wants to sell more things.
34:13Rich Greenfield:My guess is this is just a, you know, this is the calm before they actually strike an actual commercial agreement. They want to sell more things on their terms
34:20Peter Kafka:that doesn't eventually have them cut out, right? There's a lot of reasons they would like you and me to come to their website and not have a bot do it for us. They want to sell us more stuff. They want to show us ads. There's a lot of things that they would hate to give up. I respectfully disagree on the distinction between chatbot and an agent because I think they are the same thing. And I think the open AI people, if you talk to them, one of the big frustrations with all the agent hype is, well, we have all this stuff. I guess we're dumb. We didn't create an agent for it. We have all this stuff.
34:53Peter Kafka:And by the way, everyone can do whatever they want. But I use Muse a lot just as a chat GPT alternative, because right now it's free, so why not just load it up with the requests I'd normally give to chat? That aside, one last AI question for you. Media is sort of what you do at your core. Every day we learn about a new capability AI has. Inevitably, one of those abilities seems to be it's easier and easier to make stuff, to make content, to make video. and the video capability gets better and better and better. And there's always a clip of someone who made something amazing. And then the headline is, Hollywood is cooked.
35:34Peter Kafka:Look at this thing I made. It's been pretty easy to discount for me recently because they're just showing you clips of things. They're not showing you a full product. But how close are we to being able to do full-fledged, long-form AI production that doesn't look like AI that people don't turn away from and say, I don't want this. This is AI. Okay. Well, there's a lot there. Okay. Let's step back. Everyone who listens to your show should immediately go download Suno. I don't care whether you think Suno's legal, illegal, whatever happens. It's the music production app. Correct. And you should just go download it because the version six that just launched, it was the one trained on Warner Music model.
36:18They struck an agreement with Warner Music. But the reason you should download it is because of the wow factor. When you click, when you input whatever lyrics or whatever you want for the song and you click the word generate, I swear, Peter, as fast as you can hit that button for generate, the song is available to play.
36:38Rich Greenfield:And not just one, like multiple versions, A, B, like instantly available.
36:42Peter Kafka:I want a reggae version of this. I want a hardcore version of this.
36:45Rich Greenfield:But it honestly, it feels like magic, like the magic of just instantaneous. Now, we're not that far away. You know, if you talk to many of the AI video experts that are out there, they'll say what, you know, generating a minute of video in the lab instant, nearly instantaneously or nearly real time already exists. And you may say, well, a minute is not a movie or a minute is not a TV show. That's the wrong way to think about it. Remember, any TV show, any movie is not a, you know, leave off that one show in the UK adolescence that was shot straight through for 30 minutes for all the episodes. But TV shows, movies are cut up into pieces, right?
37:24Rich Greenfield:Like it's usually 30 seconds, a minute. Maybe it's two minutes. But like the cuts are very small and then they are assembled together. My point being is that like we're basically there. Now, when is it going to be? The important point is not when is the technology there? When is it cost, not cost prohibitive to roll this out in mass scale? Like when will the average person, just like they're able to use Muse or Suno, you know, they can use Muse for free, Suno for a pretty inexpensive price. Like when is that going to be video? I don't know. My guess is it's within the next 12 to 18 months. Maybe I'm naive.
38:02Rich Greenfield:Maybe it's even sooner. But it's clearly coming. And I think what it really what really strikes me is that there's going to be an explosion of content. And I'm not saying an explosion of I don't think all of a sudden HBO quality content explodes. But I do think about what this means for YouTube. And if I, you know, if I had to think about who is the biggest beneficiary of this trend, it definitely feels like YouTube because there will be a higher quality of production, whether it's fully AI or using AI tools. You know, it's one of the challenges. Like when you think about, you know, at the very beginning, we were talking about Ellison, not just buying one movie studio, but buying a second and a second library.
38:46What happens to library values in a world of infinite content?
38:51Peter Kafka:That's where I wanted to add up. We're racing, you know, the old media guys, and now Netflix is considered old media, racing to get bigger and have more stuff and more stuff. And right around the corner, there's a machine with a button that just makes stuff. And let's say most of it is shit. if it's making unlimited amounts of it, there'll be really good stuff as well. And or just stuff that is appealing to people and they'll spend time consuming in the same way they consume TikTok. Well, I do think you have to differentiate some of these companies. You know, YouTube is a platform, right? Like YouTube does not really make content.
39:22YouTube is a platform for other people's content wherever it's made, anywhere in the world. Increasingly, interestingly, I think Netflix is moving in that direction, right? Like it is if you go back to the early days, it was not about content they created.
39:38Rich Greenfield:Do they create a lot of content on the platform? They do. But, you know, if you look at total amount of content, it's still other people's content. Yep. By and large on the platform. And as they move more into podcast and sort of shorter form video content, they are becoming and flexing sort of this platform focus. And think about what they did in the UK with TF1. Sorry, not in the UK. In France, TF1, where there are platform for TF1, the broadcaster, it feels like Netflix is moving more and more in that platform direction. And I think part of the reason is that this whole creator economy, UGC content, not only is getting larger, but you're going to see so many more people doing it because AI is going to make it easier and higher quality.
40:29Rich Greenfield:And I think the real question for the traditional legacy media world, does any of this content, do they go in that direction? Like, do you really see any of these companies or do they focus on what they own and create? Like a company like Disney doesn't traditionally have, you know, a lot of UGC content. You know, they're playing around with some TikTok stuff on the Disney Plus app they've talked about, but they certainly aren't leaning in broadly.
40:56Peter Kafka:And they did an open AI deal, which then went away, but they'll do something else. If you're advising these guys, do you say, you know, to the Ellisons of the world, do you say you are good at making television shows and movies? People, people given the movie version of Suno are not going to be able to do what you can do. That's what you should, you should double down on. Or do you say there's, if Netflix can be a platform, you guys can be a platform to go for it.
41:29if you're trying to win, I think you're going to have to be a platform. I don't think, you know, any of these companies are going to be able to create enough content on their own. Now, again, can you be a good business
41:43Rich Greenfield:with just your content? Sure. And maybe some of these companies narrow down their focus and don't want to be a platform. But I think if you're, you know, if your eye is on winning streaming, whatever winning is defined as, I think you're going to have to have not just, you know, more traditional TV and movies from third parties. I think you're going to need all forms of content because I think, you know, the consumer, you know, the viewer, my kids, your kids, for sure, they do not distinguish between something that costs millions of dollars. You know, an episode of a Taylor Sheridan series can cost$30 million, right?
42:26They're not differentiating that 30 minutes of time spent
42:29Rich Greenfield:from a bunch of creators, right? And so I think you need to have it all. And so the lines are blurring, but what I'm sort of, the premise I wanna get out there is I think AI, where we are and where we're going over the next 12 to 24 months, I think the lines between UGC, what you would traditionally call, whether it's podcaster or YouTube content, the lines between that content quality and what you see on a Paramount Plus, you know, those lines are blurring and the consumer is telling you, you need to do a little bit of everything. I mean, in some ways, it's what makes this Fox acquisition of Roku so interesting.
43:10Rich Greenfield:And it hasn't gotten a lot of industry attention, but I think it is really interesting of how Fox is rethinking, you know, they got rid of their linear TV assets to Disney, right? Like they got rid of their studio, they got rid of most of their cable networks. And now they're, instead of just doing what everyone else does, which is buy the assets in their sector - They've skinnied down.
43:31Peter Kafka:They're just sports and unscripted programming, essentially.
43:35Rich Greenfield:But then they took a hard right turn into streaming.
43:39Peter Kafka:But specifically, right? They said, well, we're not, I guess you could call them a platform, but we're going to be a distributor now.
43:44Rich Greenfield:If you want to if you want to get TVOS platform, they have TV operating system platform that Comcast should have done. Right. NBC Universal and Comcast, there's no doubt they should have. I can't believe they never bought Roku. It's crazy to me. And we said it should have happened for years. It'll be interesting to see, you know, who transforms. But I think this whole idea of becoming a platform and becoming a platform for more than just traditional TV and movies, I think is going to be a very big topic over the course of the next 12 to 24 months.
44:20Peter Kafka:OK, let's keep talking about it. You and I need to both go pack for our trip to L.A. tomorrow. I'll see you there. Thank you, Rich Greenfield. Hopefully, Muse will tell us if we're delayed. Thanks again to Rich Greenfield. Thanks again to Rishi Rajagopalan, who edits and produces our show. And mazel tov to Charlotte Silver, who is not editing and producing this show because she just added a new person to her family. Oh, and thank you to our advertisers and thanks to you guys, too. See you soon.
44:59Peter Kafka:Support for the show comes from Square. If you're working from an array of disconnected business tools, it's time to consider Square. Square gives you one connected system to handle it all. Payments to inventory, scheduling, and online orders. It's one unified intuitive system that combines hardware and software. If you're starting a business or running one that deserves better tools, Square helps you sell, manage, and grow without slowing down. Right now, you can get up to$200 off Square hardware at square.com slash go slash channels. That's square.com slash go slash channels. Run your business smarter with Square.
45:37Peter Kafka:Get started today.
From the publisher
David Ellison has won Warner Bros. Discovery. Now he has to figure out what, exactly, to do with it.
LightShed analyst Rich Greenfield joins me to talk through the next version of the Paramount-Warner empire: Why Ellison wants to be Netflix; why CBS and the NFL still matter so much; and why simply bolting Paramount+ onto HBO Max won’t magically create a winning streamer.
Then we zoom out to the much bigger problem for Hollywood: AI is making it easier and cheaper to create video, which could mean an explosion of stuff to watch — and a real challenge to the value of giant movie and TV libraries. Rich thinks the winners will need to become platforms, not just studios. We also talk about Meta’s Muse, and why Rich thinks it could be a much bigger deal than people realize.
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