In short
Sports media economics and TV rights power shifts, centered on the NFL’s broadcast negotiations, the NBA/Lakers valuation, Apple’s MLS streaming failure, Formula One rights, and how the WNBA spreads across multiple networks.
Guests
John O’Rand, sports media reporter at Puck (formerly covered sports TV deals for years; described as “sports media maven”).
Key claims
- Lakers majority stake deal at $12.5B (Bob Iger + Josh Kushner) reflects investors’ belief media-rights cash flows are “locked” for ~10 years, despite valuation growth assumptions being questioned.
- NFL leverage may weaken: networks want to avoid early renegotiations; NFL still dominates but could earn ~10–20% less than expected.
- Apple’s MLS deal failed due to low Apple TV distribution and lack of broader Apple sports programming; hardcore fans didn’t convert to casual audiences.
Notable examples
- NFL broadcast “free TV” lobbying/political pressure to keep games on broadcast.
- Lakers local rights: ~$200M/year for another 10 years.
- MLS paywall: Apple TV subscription plus extra fee.
- F1: Apple paid ~$140–150M; ESPN declined (~$80–90M), Apple plans more surrounding content.
- WNBA: Versant buys small packages; multiple-network availability boosts rights value but can make games harder to find.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMeet John O'Rand
0:46 to 2:05
Peter introduces John O'Rand to discuss sports media deals.
“I'm also Chief Correspondent at Business Insider.”
Lakers' Major Stake Purchase
2:05 to 3:14
Discussion on Josh Kushner and Bob Iger's acquisition of the Lakers.
“Whenever there's sports media business news, sometimes I'm supposed to write about it, but often I just want to know what John Arand is saying about it.”
Valuation Mysteries in Sports
3:14 to 4:33
Exploration of the financial complexities behind the Lakers' valuation.
“I mean, especially for the Lakers, you don't see people buy professional sports teams and then essentially flip them.”
Future of Media Rights
4:33 to 6:53
Insights on the impact of media rights deals on sports franchises.
“Do they have billions of dollars to buy a team?”
NFL's Negotiation Landscape
6:53 to 11:28
Discussion on recent developments in NFL broadcast negotiations.
“And at the end, there was this throwaway line about Jeff Bezos' background in e-commerce could help Liverpool.”
Murdoch and NFL Dynamics
11:28 to 14:00
Analyzing the relationship and tensions between Fox and the NFL.
“And he essentially said that all of the networks have been negotiating with the NFL to open up their deals early.”
NFL's Media Rights Dynamics
14:00 to 20:06
Exploration of the complex media rights negotiations involving the NFL and networks.
“They have to be available on quote unquote free TV.”
NFL's Future Broadcast Strategies
22:08 to 28:01
Discussion on the potential shifts in NFL broadcasting strategies and their implications.
“This theory that, and like you mentioned before, that Fox is using to fight with the NFL telling the White House, Some other politicians saying, hey, this stuff could leave free television if we're not careful.”
MLS and Apple's Streaming Strategy
28:01 to 30:12
Discussion on MLS's challenges with Apple TV's support and the impact on fan engagement.
“And then MLS had every expectation that Apple TV was going to get aggressive in terms of building out sports.”
Comparing F1 and MLS Deals
30:13 to 33:45
Exploration of the differences in Apple's approach to F1 compared to MLS.
“with where they are because the valuations of these teams keep going up.”
Show all 12 chapters
WNBA's Strategy in a Fragmented Market
33:46 to 35:59
Analysis of the WNBA's distribution strategy across multiple networks and its implications.
“Many, many other people have WNBA packages.”
Personalization in Sports Viewing
36:00 to 39:44
Discussion on the future of personalized sports viewing experiences and challenges in streaming.
“Yeah, networks want exclusivity, certainly.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Peter Kafka:Our earliest childhood memories can feel so visceral. I have this memory of my mother standing on the beach, you know, the wind whipping her hair and her jacket, calling into the wind with my siblings out in the lake and the dam, you know, looming in the distance. But none of these memories were true. This week on Explain It to Me from Vox. Why can't I remember being a baby?
0:33When I look at the NFL, every single broadcast network has a package. And there's nobody else that's out there bidding it up. Even as powerful as the NFL is, that's a problem.
0:45Peter Kafka:From the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is Channels with Peter Kafka. That is me. I'm also Chief Correspondent at Business Insider. And today we are talking about sports on TV, which normally means we're talking about the NFL, which is pretty much the only thing that matters when you talk about sports on TV, which means it's the only thing that really matters on TV, period. You know all this. And we are most definitely talking about the NFL on this show and why it might have a little less power in 2026 than it's been used to. but we're also going to talk about the NBA and why TV deals should be factoring into Bob Iger and Josh Kushner's move to buy the LA Lakers still want to know how much money Bob Iger is putting into that deal and since we're talking about sports on TV why stop there?
1:32Peter Kafka:we are also going to talk about Apple's failed experiment with MLS that is the US Pro Soccer League that you are probably not watching how that deal affected Apple's Formula One deal and why you can watch the WNBA on just about any network you turn to and whether that's a good thing. My guide for all this is Puck's excellent John O 'Rand, who has been covering sports TV deals forever. He is indispensable for conversations like this. Let's get to it. Here is me talking to Puck's John O 'Rand. I'm here with sports media maven John O 'Rand, who is now at Puck. Welcome back, John. Thanks, man. Always great to be here.
2:11Peter Kafka:Thanks for joining me. Whenever there's sports media business news, sometimes I'm supposed to write about it, but often I just want to know what John Arand is saying about it. And sometimes I just skip reading him and just have him on my podcast so he can explain what is happening in the world of sports. There was a giant deal announced just days ago. We'll start with that. What we know is that Josh Kushner and Bob Iger have bought a majority stake or planned to buy a majority of stake in the L.A. Lakers at a price of$12.5 billion. That's up from$10 billion, which was the price when it was purchased about a year ago.
2:47Just about a year ago. Yeah, crazy.
2:49Peter Kafka:So we're used to seeing deals for all kinds of professional sports teams go up and up and up. This one still shocked a lot of people. One, because the price is so huge,$12.5 billion. And also because Mark Walters, the current owner, again, just owned it. You can't call this a fire sale if someone bought something for$10 billion and they're selling it for$12.5 billion. but it seems like something of a distressed sale. I mean, especially for the Lakers, you don't see people buy professional sports teams and then essentially flip them. And the leagues don't want that, right? Oh, certainly not, no, no.
3:25Peter Kafka:And the leagues also vet all their buyers. And it wasn't like Mark Walters came out of nowhere. He already owned the Los Angeles Dodgers, among many other big assets. It's not like he's a guy who just showed up with a check in his pocket. He also owned a part of Chelsea, which just before coming on this podcast, reports that he's now looking to sell that stake. So it's plainly obvious that Mark Walter needs some sort of cash. We know he's under federal investigation. We don't know what kind of fines might come out, result from that. But it seems plainly obvious that he needs a lot of cash right now.
3:59Peter Kafka:So there's a bit of a mystery on the seller side. The buyer side seems more straightforward, but I'm still confused because the valuation is$12.5 billion. They're not spending$12.5 billion. It's something less than that to gain majority control. But it's still many billions of dollars. Josh Kushner is theoretically a billionaire, according to Forbes magazine. Bob Iger is not. I've worked on those kind of Forbes wealth rankings. I know that they are at best a well-intentioned guess. But they're normally not off by huge, huge factors. Do you understand how Josh Kushner and Bob Iger are going to spend?
4:36Peter Kafka:Do they have billions of dollars to buy a team? They're going to sell stakes to individual investors. So they're going to syndicate this out. To help make that up. But I actually did a story on this for Puck where I talked to a bunch of media executives because in the past, all these valuations of the teams were heavily weighted on the fact that media rights deals keep going up by 10%, 20 % per year. And these media executives were like, if they're basing their valuation on future media rights deals, that's a mistake because the Lakers make$200 million a year from their local rights deal with Sportsnet LA.
5:21And the NBA just got into a new deal that's paying it like$7.6 billion.
5:26Peter Kafka:That's NBC and Amazon. Exactly. And they really look, the NFL is going to come in. other people. Cord cutting is still happening. Broadcast TV is in distress. They're not seeing nearly as much money coming from streaming to take up for that. And so the media companies are saying, you know, we could be at the apex of it. But then when I talk to you, this will shock you, I'm sure, Peter, you talk to the bankers and PE folks, and they're like, no, you know, it's still going to keep going up. And one of the things that they said is like somebody like Kushner is involved with open AI. And open AI, you know, there's been a lot of talk about whether there's an AI bubble.
6:08And they say that increasingly, these types of people, we just saw it in the Seattle Seahawks sale as well, people that are making so much money in risky sort of investments, something that could completely blow up. This is a pretty easy way to go to invest$12 billion. dollars. At worst, you lose a couple billion, but it's going to maintain somewhat. And so that's sort of how they're viewing it. I always get a kick out of banker justifications because they
6:38Peter Kafka:can justify anything. And yeah, if open AI goes badly, Josh Kushner has much bigger problems than the valuation of the Lakers. Similarly, I was reading a piece talking about Jeff Bezos and other billionaires buying a chunk of Liverpool, a giant football club in the UK. And at the end, there was this throwaway line about Jeff Bezos' background in e-commerce could help Liverpool. No, it's got no connection to that at all. It's just money. And I think the answer to all these questions is these guys who have this much money want to buy these assets because there's just a handful of them, full stop.
7:18Peter Kafka:So whether it's ego, finance, both, there's only a few of these. I now own one. It's cool. And maybe the money goes up. But the reason I had you on the show was to talk about what you were just talking about, the media rights component of this. Like you said, there is a question about how much rights can go up for the NBA, for the NFL, for everything. On the other hand, as long as I've been writing about this stuff, which is some time now, that has been the question people have asked. How much higher can these rates go? Oh, TV viewership is declining, blah, blah, blah. Why would you pay more for this asset?
7:53Peter Kafka:They continue to go up. We don't know whether they're going to keep going. But just spell out when you're buying an NBA team, for starters. Like you just said, they have an Amazon, NBC series of deals. Those are locked up for, what, a decade now? So there's still 10 more years for the national TV deal. So the media component, the national media component, the valuation of the Lakers and every other team is stuck for 10 years. Yeah. And in fact, just using the Lakers, that local deal that I talked about,$200 million per year, that goes on for another 10 years. So for the next 10 years, the Lakers are pretty much going to be OK.
8:33What happens after that? I mean, who knows?
8:35Peter Kafka:They're worth what they're worth. They're not going to make any more money from showing their games. Right. Can they make more money selling T-shirts or NFTs or whatever they can? Sure, maybe. But the real valuation will change. We are seeing like one of the reasons that Mark Cuban gave for selling the Dallas Mavericks back then was the future growth is coming from real estate. You're seeing these owners buy all the real estate around a stadium or own the stadium. And Cuban doesn't know anything about that. But he knows a lot about media, right? So he thought that it was a good time for him to step aside.
9:11So there are other areas that owners are looking to to make money. Nothing is nearly as good as the media rights over the past 20 years.
9:21Peter Kafka:If you're making the bull case, what is the thing that's going to drive media rights for the NBA or any other big sports franchise up in seven to 10 years? Are there people to find who aren't viewing the leagues now that you're going to bring in as new audience? Can you charge more for it? Is it just the hope there'll be yet more tech money coming in and people who've been on the sidelines so far and haven't been buying sports rights will finally do it? All of the above? I think all of the above. But I think mainly if you look at it as an advertising play, it's still – sports is the last bastion of people watching live.
10:02And it's been that case for a while. And it's the reason that broadcast networks and even cable networks are still thriving right now. I mean they're all still profitable right now. So if I want to give the bull case for sports rights continuing to move forward, the broadcast networks maybe don't stay healthy, but still exist. And they have to have it. They have to have it. They have to have these sports.
10:30Peter Kafka:So traditional TV, until they literally run out of money, is always going to be lining up to buy this stuff. That's the belief that they, and we're going to get to this in a second, that the CBS and Fox in particular of the world, but really all the big networks that are paying for this stuff, really have a fundamental problem if they don't have NFL games to show. If they don't have live sports. Because when we talk about that, when we get into the NFL, I do have some theories that a lot of people laugh at me about. Okay. So let's skip ahead. Let's talk about the NFL specifically. More recent news was Lachlan Murdoch.
11:03Peter Kafka:You almost never get news in an earnings call. Almost never. Can I do a pet peeve? There are some people that are like, oh, he didn't say anything. This was so unusual to have him essentially bash his biggest partner. Yeah. Let's spell this out. So on a recent Fox earnings call, Lachlan Murdoch takes time, scripted, I believe. He's not freelancing. He's not a freelance kind of guy, to come out and say what? And he essentially said that all of the networks have been negotiating with the NFL to open up their deals early. And they were going to they just thought it would be an easy way to keep the NFL locked in.
11:42And what Lachlan finally said was like, you know what, we're going to see this through to the end. So we can negotiate now, but we're not opening our deal up early. It's going to run through to the end of the decade.
11:52Peter Kafka:And the reason that is news is because as of a few months ago, most people in the media world and definitely the NFL thought that they were going to get all of the networks to come and renegotiate their deal and essentially give them money in advance. Say, you know, this is going to cost you X in 2029. You can get it at a slightly cheaper rate if you sign up earlier. And so Lachlan Murdoch has said, no, we're not going to do that. Disney and ESPN have not made a public stink about it, but have also pretty much said that. We haven't heard anything from Comcast and NBC, but they're not making noise either way.
12:32Peter Kafka:And then the only one we know that might be actually renegotiating is CBS slash Paramount because they've got a contractual reason they have to do that. Am I summing that up correctly? Yeah. And I can tell you behind the scenes, you have NBC and ESPN just sort of like, Like, you know, yeah, you go, Lachlan. Basically, he's taking all the arrows. And you didn't mention Amazon, which is not a linear TV, of course. But they're like, we'll see this to the end. They're all collectively telling the NFL, it's not that we don't want to do business with you. We just don't want to give you more money before we have to.
13:07Peter Kafka:That seems like a pretty reasonable stance, but it's being treated like a bombshell in our world. And I think that's primarily because no one ever tells the NFL no. Is there something else going on that I'm missing? The NFL, for as long as we've been covering it, has had all the leverage, right, in these types of negotiations. But there are a couple things at play here. One is Rupert Murdoch and Fox really pushed the current administration and the federal government to ensure that NFL games remain on broadcast television. And that's a big deal because it is the current administration that they pushed, but it is a totally bipartisan issue where if you go and you say we're giving public funding for these billionaires to build these stadiums, they're not going to then go and turn and sell them to Netflix to where we have to pay to watch them.
14:01They have to be available on quote unquote free TV.
14:03Peter Kafka:The Fox argument is if we don't look out, football may disappear from free TV, even though most – Most people are not actually getting their games for free. They're paying someone to deliver it. Also, for context, yes, that is Rupert Murdoch and Lachlan Murdoch, you say pushing the Trump administration. Other people have used the word lobbying. Same Trump administration, same president that is suing Rupert Murdoch personally for$10 billion. But the Wall Street Journal has done great reporting on this, also owned by Rupert Murdoch. And the idea that Fox and the NFL are fighting, it's quite extraordinary to see that out in public.
14:43Peter Kafka:And if you call up the NFL or Fox, neither of them will try to disabuse you of that. They'll both say, yes, we are at loggerheads here. So that's all unique. Yeah, and I would say that they would disabuse you of fighting. It's just like, yeah, we just have a difference of opinion or something. But in our world, yeah, this is a bare muckle brawl almost. Yeah. So back to the question of is this the networks being in a place saying we really don't have the ability to throw out extra money. We will pay for the NFL eventually, but we're going to hang on as long as we can and just not pay more than we have to until we have to.
15:17Peter Kafka:And or is the NFL's grip on media rights? Is that weakening? If Lachlan Murdoch feels comfortable, I would say, nope, we're good for a couple of years. I'm going to say that the money does play a little part of it. There's some early numbers of like an extra billion per year per network were floated and all the networks that would put some of the networks out of business. But no, look, the NFL is still number one. And the NFL, like nobody wants to live. None of the networks want to live without the NFL. But one of the things that I find interesting is they're still talking to CBS because of the change of control, of course.
15:58Peter Kafka:But just to spell that out, there's a clause in the Paramount deal that says if the company gets sold, basically the NFL can reopen negotiations. So let's say the NFL says, OK, you know what? We're reopening it. We don't have it. We can't come to a deal with CBS. This package is open for bidding. And it's a package of Sunday afternoon games where it's anywhere between like three, four, five, maybe occasionally six games on the Sunday afternoon. Who's stepping up for that package? There aren't a lot of other networks. Maybe ABC comes. None of the streamers have made – they want these Sunday night football packages or they want the Thursday night – Amazon has a Thursday night.
16:44Peter Kafka:Do they want those or that's just what's available? That's what's available. I do think that at some point the NFL has to change – these are still packages that they created back in 1970 for goodness sake. At some point they're going to have to change the way they do the packages. And so when I look at the NFL, every single broadcast network has a package. and there's nobody else that's out there bidding it up. And even as powerful as the NFL is, that's a problem. In the past, they always had David Levy and Turner sitting there saying, like, we're dying to get involved with the NFL. Nobody's around doing that right now because, in fact, CBS, you know, Paramount is buying Turner.
17:24They're buying the Warner Brothers Discovery. And so it's like buying a house. You need more than one bidder for the price to go up. They have just enough bidders for just enough packages. And I think right now we're seeing where the limits of that power lie a little bit.
17:40Peter Kafka:So it almost feels like, I don't know, is detente the right analogy? No, because the NFL is still going to get what it needs to get. It just isn't going to get as much, like, its reach goal, I think. Yeah. So, I mean, I think that's telling if the NFL, which is the dominant force in TV sports, which means it's the dominant force in TV. Again, whatever stat you look at, whatever year, 86 of the top 100 telecasts are NFL games, or 70. The number moves around. And you're going to tell me other sports are also important. But it's the NFL is the thing that I believe means that CBS and Fox exist. Most of these other places, without it, fail.
18:22Peter Kafka:All that said, people are saying, maybe it's worth 10 % less than the NFL thinks it is, or 20 % less. It's still a ton of money, but less. And that seems meaningful. This is a perfect opportunity for me to talk about my bugaboo that everybody laughs at. So let's say you're Fox and you just get rid of the NFL and you save yourself. Right now they're paying upwards of like$2.3 billion a year for it. So all of a sudden Fox has$2.3 billion burning a hole in their pocket. They control the Big Ten. They can gobble up some other college rights potentially. They can gobble up – they can get a bunch of other rights.
19:02And the whole idea is that even with all the cord cutting, all of these networks still make most of their money from cable and satellite distribution fees. And so what cable operator is going to drop Fox if it doesn't have the NFL but it does have the Big Ten and it does have the Big 12 and it does have sort of other really good college football on the side? Maybe they can negotiate that down a little bit.
19:31Peter Kafka:So your theory is that Fox can call the NFL's bluff, say, we don't want it. We're going to take your money. We're going to put that money into college football, which is not pro football, but is still popular and it's still a big deal. They wouldn't have all of college football because those rights are divvied up. But that's your theory for the Murdochs. College football, the World Series. At some point, if ESPN ends up paying an extra billion dollars a year, they're going to have to give up some of those rights. They can't keep paying other rights. And if Fox has$2.5 billion, it can afford to collect those rights.
20:05Peter Kafka:We'll be right back with John Oran, but first a word from a sponsor.
20:14Hey, what's up, guys? It's Babish, host of In the Booth with Babish.
Read the full transcript
20:17Peter Kafka:On this week's episode, I sit down with Dominic Sessa, who plays Anthony Bourdain in the new A24 film Tony. We talk about getting into character as one of food's greatest icons, and of course, which castmates he'd fuck, marry, or kill. Watch the full episode on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts. Megan Rapinoe here. This week on Why Are You Like This, I got to sit down with legendary Minnesota Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve in Chicago during All-Star Weekend. We get into her personal style of activism, how she supports her players as people, and why she proudly considers herself a dyke.
20:54Then we learn if she's more of a mommy, daddy, or baby. Check out the latest episode of Why Are You Like This wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
21:05People are big mad about data centers in the United States this summer, but don't sleep on how mad people are about flock.
21:15Flock cameras, if you haven't noticed them, don't worry, they've noticed you. You may have heard about them in your reels or on Flock Talk. I have never in my life been as pissed at the government as I am now that Flock cameras exist. Americans are going to war against Flock AI surveillance cameras, and people are going around and literally sawing them down, absolutely destroying them. An AI surveillance apparatus goes against the very essence of freedom and the core values of our country.
21:44Peter Kafka:It's not right, it's not conservative, and it sure as hell ain't American. Flock surveillance cameras have popped up all over the nation, every state but Alaska. But this year, dozens of cities and counties across the country have cut ties with Flock. And on Today Explained from Vox, we're going to tell you why.
22:07Peter Kafka:And we're back. This theory that, and like you mentioned before, that Fox is using to fight with the NFL telling the White House, Some other politicians saying, hey, this stuff could leave free television if we're not careful. Whenever you and I, anyone else, talks to an NFL executive about how they think about broadcast versus cable versus internet, they always say, first and foremost, we need to have this be widely distributed. That's most important for us, that everyone can see the games. And so if 10 years ago that meant that had to be on broadcast TV. Not everyone had the internet or internet that was capable of streaming.
22:46Peter Kafka:It wasn't a mainstream thing still. But that's now the case. Could the NFL get to a point where they say, yeah, we're just doing a, we're taking our CBS deal, we're doing it with Netflix or Amazon or whoever it is. And anyone who wants to get Netflix can pay for it. So this is the equivalent of being free over the air. Or do you think they always are going to stick with some sort of free over the air broadcast? So I agree with you. Netflix right now is in front of, you know, you know, the subscriber numbers better than I do, certainly more than ESPN. And it's, you know, bordering on broadcast territory.
23:22You could make a case saying that we reach as many people on Netflix as we would on a Fox or a CBS. However, the tenor within Washington, D.C., where what's the average age of a senator? It's like pushing 70. 105 years old. Yeah, 105. Like to them, if it's not on broadcast, it doesn't exist. Like Netflix is this new shiny object that they don't understand anything about. And so if you want Washington – if Washington is going to get involved, they're going to get involved and push for broadcast. They also – it's more than just pushing for National Fox too. They want the local affiliate in Walla Walla, Washington to be able to give good weather alerts, good news alerts to the local community.
24:10And the only way for that affiliate to maintain its place is for it to have NFL games through its affiliation with, you know, Fox or CBS or whatever broadcaster as well. And it's a bipartisan issue. So logically, you make a ton of sense about just going to – why not just go to Netflix? realistically on the ground, I just think that's going to be a tough road to hell.
24:34Peter Kafka:I think it is tough as well. And again, given that broadcasters will continue to pay huge fees for the NFL, I think that's what we stick with. Just so we can track this, now that everyone but Paramount is essentially out of doing an early deal with the NFL, Paramount can't really do one because they're in this lawsuit and they haven't closed their deal yet. What's the next window where these talks start getting serious again? When does Lachlan Murdoch and the NFL have another real conversation? Yeah, I think they'll probably in the next year or so get serious. These are deals that go through, I think, 2033 or like in the early 2030s.
25:16At the end of the 2029 season, the NFL has outs in their contracts with CBS, Fox, Amazon, and NBC. ESPN goes one more year than that. And so essentially what the early negotiations have been about is trying to buy the NFL out of that opt-out and then continuing this through 2033. And so everybody expects in 2029 – who knows what the media markets are going to look like then. But right now, everybody expects the NFL to open that up and redo. redo.
25:49Peter Kafka:And so in 2027, you start talking about the fact that this window is going to be opened up in 2029 and then you start negotiating. And then let me also just say, like in the NFL's case, like the NFL, they just did these deals,$110 billion worth of deals. It was thought to be the highest ever. Well, it was the highest ever. And all the networks were crying poor. And then the NFL turns around and they're paying the NBA$76 billion for that. They said, wait, I thought you were crying poor. And then they're looking at Fox going to DC and it turns around and finds like a couple of quarters in the cushion to buy Roku.
26:27And they're like, wait, how can you be crying poor on one hand? And then on the other hand, you do have this money. So the NFL is like, they kind of want to test those limits.
26:37Peter Kafka:So let me talk to you about the other media deals. We've been mentioning some of these obliquely a bit. So you have the NFL, the top of the pecking order, and then I would say two, three is NBA and college football, depending on how you want to rank them. There's sort of everything else. And over the years, you and I have talked about some of these deals. For instance, a few years ago, Apple made a big splash by saying we're doing an exclusive deal with MLS, that is the US Pro Soccer League. And they essentially put the entire thing behind a paywall you've been able to watch some mls games on other networks for free or buying the network before now you exclusively had to go to apple and essentially they have acknowledged that that is not working uh which is rare to hear a league partner talk about that with anyone it's rare to hear apple ever admit it isn't really working out um what went wrong with that deal first of all Well, Apple TV wasn't necessarily built to – like where does it stand?
27:38In terms of – you know this better than I do. You have Netflix. You have Disney Plus. Keep going. Keep going. Keep going. Keep going. It's got very low distribution. Yeah. And so that's sort of the first part of this. The second part is that when MLS –
27:52Peter Kafka:That was the case when MLS did the deal. I think their hope was it will get bigger because people who want MLS. Yeah. MLS, they weren't dopes. Like they were like, OK, we'll grow with it. And then MLS had every expectation that Apple TV was going to get aggressive in terms of building out sports. Like why would you go and get MLS and then not not support it with other programming that's out there? And Apple TV, they have like, I guess, a Friday night baseball deal that doesn't do much for MLS. for MLS. They finally did sign the F1 deal, but they passed on a lot of things and they didn't get interested in other things.
28:31So MLS was sort of, as a sports entity, was sort of alone. And so what happened, and this is a problem that all leagues are taking a look at, is that real hardcore MLS fans, and yes, they do exist out there, but real hardcore MLS fans found it and loved it. No casual fans sampled it. Because how would you?
28:57Peter Kafka:You would have to, one, have Apple TV, which already makes you a very rare person. And two, you would have to decide that, oh, I'm going to check out this random MLS game. Yeah, exactly. And so both of those sort of playing a part of that, now they put it in front of the paywall. So now you just need to be an Apple TV subscriber to see it. You don't need to do the add-on. Yeah, I'm sorry. I didn't explain that well enough. You have to pay for Apple TV, then you have to pay an additional fee to get the MLS games. Yeah. It's not able to grow when those rights do come up. And I don't know the exact date.
29:29I think it's 2029. But when those rights do come up, I'm really curious to see who of traditional media is going to want to step up and get it. Is there going to be a title wave of coming from the World Cup and the popularity of the World Cup that's going to help MLS?
29:46Peter Kafka:No, I'm happy to answer that question because I'm an expert on this. The MLS, God bless everyone who likes it and people who play in it. It's not a bad thing, but it is not a super competitive league. It's where some of the world's best players go after they peaked and are trying to make some money and or do U.S. commercial deals. It's where young players go to try to get to other leagues. I mean, I know this is a media pod, but MLS is at a crossroads right now where they either want to open up the checkbooks and make the quality on the play better on the field, or they're just kind of happy with where they are because the valuations of these teams keep going up.
30:29Peter Kafka:Yeah, I'd vote for number two. And also, the most dominant league is the Premier League in the UK. The other dominant leagues are struggling to keep up with the Premier League. And there's no way that the MLS is going to consistently get the kind of players you would need to be competitive with them. That's my rant about MLS soccer. um other deals you mentioned f1 and and apple um i've reported on that in the past the story there was espn which had the f1 deal and they're paying like 80 or 90 million dollars doesn't seem like very much in the grand scheme of things they said we don't want to pay more uh apple you do you go for it apple paid a reported 140 150 million for f1 this is again racing um having gone through the MLS experience and paying a bunch of money for that and didn't work out, how much of that experience is reflected in Apple's deal for F1?
31:25Peter Kafka:Why do you think they did it? And are they doing that deal differently than they did with MLS? So earlier in this pod, you were talking about the ballooning sports cost rights, and sports rights keep going up for as long as we've been doing it. A couple of years ago, probably this probably started right around the pandemic. You started seeing the Pac-12 just totally implode like like because college sports league. Yeah. They weren't able to get a a professional sports deal. You saw MLS. They weren't able to get a workout deal with a linear TV company. So it ended up going over to Apple TV. I keep telling people that my main job for the next five years is that there's a line between the haves, the NBA, the NFL, major college football, and the have-nots.
32:25Peter Kafka:The fancy term for this is the K-shaped economy, right? If you're on the winning side, you're going up, up, up, and everyone else goes down. And they're linked, right? Yeah. Because sometimes you see the K-shaped economy of winners and losers. But here you've got ESPNs of the world saying$90 million a year is, yeah, not that much. But also we need that money because we've got to pay more for the NFL. Yeah. Yeah. And Pat McAfee. So what happened with Formula One is that ESPN was saying no. NBC was saying no. There weren't a lot of linear companies out there that were sort of bidding this up. Look, F1 fits in with Apple's sort of demo.
33:04It's high-end, drives to survive. Which was a Netflix show.
33:10Peter Kafka:That's why people thought Netflix might buy those rights because there was a narrative for a while that F1 is soaring in popularity in the US and it's because of this Netflix show. But I mentioned Drive Survive because Apple feels like that's been set to where they could launch another show either similar to Drive Survive or just shoulder programming associated with it. And they had that Brad Pitt movie, I guess, that did well as well. So they think that there are other things that you can do around F1 to help it out. But ultimately, F1 would still be on ESPN if ESPN had paid up. We'll be right back with John Oran, but first this.
33:56Peter Kafka:and we're back one last sports deal which is really multiple sports deals i wanted to ask you about is the wnba uh versant the cable network that used to be part of comcast which used mvcu all that split up um they are trying to buy as many sports rights as they can but they're buying small packages. They just bought a WNBA package. Many, many other people have WNBA packages. I think maybe at least a half dozen other places where you can see at WNBA games, if I did my math right. Does the WNBA think that's a good idea? Do they want to be on six or seven different networks or is it a matter of, like you've been saying, these leagues that are not the NFL and college football have to sort of take what they can get?
34:40I'm going to give you two answers to that. One is, yeah, part of it is that that's a way to get the rights fee to go up a lot higher.
34:48Peter Kafka:Is to sell it to six different people? Yeah, and nobody wants to be on six different take their fans and have them try to find the games on six different places. So you're saying the WNBA would prefer to be on one network or a couple of networks? No, that's the other part of this. Terry Bettman is a commissioner of the NHL, and the NHL has deals with ESPN and with TNT Sports. And he said, like, I don't know what the sweet spot is, three networks, four networks. But then you get these multinational media companies that are marketing your programming. And so it helps. And so what they found is it's actually a lot better not to be just in bed with only one media company.
35:33You want to have a couple. Because they're all promoting you. Yeah, six or seven, that's a little much. You know, all of a sudden then it becomes a lot more difficult for your fans to find your game.
35:43Peter Kafka:That's the balance. You would like these big companies promoting your product. You also want your viewer to be able to find them and not have to go, where is the Minnesota Lynx game tonight? I need an editor in real life. What took me like 300 words you just succinctly put down into 20. That was great. That service is free. You're welcome. um and and for the the the lead the companies that are buying them again and i had mark lazarus on the show and he pretty much said like we're not we're not we can't compete for nfl games uh we just don't have those resources so we're gonna buy and he didn't say we're gonna buy lots of other stuff but that's what they're doing do you think those other networks would prefer to have something that they mostly own or just share with a couple people that they they that the networks think that's also preferable?
36:30Yeah, networks want exclusivity, certainly. Yeah, without a question. But for Versant, if they get one Caitlin Clark game, that's going to get them close to a million viewers, which is going to be huge.
36:44Peter Kafka:And would they rather have one Caitlin Clark game? Because that is of national interest and that's a big deal. People will go find that And that'll get a million viewers where they have 10 games that bring in 100 ,000 viewers each, however that math is supposed to work. Well, I think what they would say is that if it's not Caitlin Clark, it's still getting hundreds of thousands of viewers. But there's a pretty big fall off, right? I mean, there's Caitlin Clark games and there's something else. I think she's responsible for like the top 11 viewed. And MLS is even more dramatic, right? People tune in and will pay money to see and pay extraordinary amount of money to see Lionel Messi in person.
37:21For see some 40-year-old down in Miami. I mean, come on, my God.
37:25Peter Kafka:But a normal MLS game you can go to for just about free. Well, yeah, I wish I could agree with that, but you know Apple. We have no idea how many people are actually watching. Oh, no, but you can just look at ticketing for any other MLS game. And the gap between a Lionel Messi game and any other. Messi games sell out no matter where they are. You could look in your, you could get spare change from your couch and walk up to an MLS stadium didn't go any other day. Sorry. It's true. So is that going to be the state of all these other sports, all these other non-NFL sports leagues that you're either going to find them randomly because they just happened to show up on a screen you were watching on and you weren't planning on watching them.
38:05Peter Kafka:And that's one way to watch them. Or you're going to have to get a map and a compass and go hunting for the team, the league you want. You know, Jimmy Pataro has said that we're about to enter in a stage of personalization. And so, you know, I am a happy and new to it YouTube TV subscriber. And when I turn on YouTube TV, you know, all of a sudden the Maryland Terrapin, I'm a big Terp guy, the Maryland Terrapin logo comes up. I click on it. I have no clue whether it's on Peacock, NBC, Fox, CBS, it doesn't matter to me. I just get taken to the game that I want to see. So at some point, if you spread it among these multiple networks, does it even matter?
38:55I'm not sure that it does.
38:56Peter Kafka:Yeah, I will say that it's a 2026, and most streaming providers don't do anything close to that. I get Hulu Live, the equivalent of Hulu Live. Oh God, I had Hulu Live. It was terrible. And every time I show up, it's like, who are you? What are you interested in watching? What? And every weekend I watch the same fucking sports, excuse my language, listeners who are still here. And it treats me as if I just walked in off the street and has no idea what I'm interested in. And even when I know I want to watch, I wanted to watch an exhibition Premier League game yesterday. And I pretty much knew where it was going to be.
39:32Peter Kafka:It still took me five minutes of digging. That's devoted digging to watch that thing. So I don't know how close the personalization is going to show up. Yeah, it takes a while. That's why I went from Hulu to YouTube TV. And that's why I'm like, I was, it was like, it was incredible. I was like, wow, everything's within like one click. I will say, I'll give you guys a little preview that I am going to become a YouTube, not YouTube TV, but YouTube premium subscriber early next year, because they have this bundle deal with Peacock where I'll get ad-free YouTube, not YouTube TV, but normal YouTube, plus Peacock, which I'm already subscribing for, for a few bucks.
40:08Peter Kafka:That's a pretty good deal. I think we'll see more of these bundles. By the way, as a YouTube TV subscriber, I get all of Peacock Sports. I get all of ESPN App Sports. I don't have to subscribe to any of these other apps. I guess what we're saying is, Neil Mohan, we've just done a free ad for you, several free ads, so we expect our check. John O 'Ran, you are my personalized sports guest. you are the guy I'm able to call up and have things explained to me. So thank you for coming in once again. Hey, thanks a ton. Thanks again to John Oran. Thanks again to Charlotte Silver, who produces and edits this show.
40:37Peter Kafka:She is great. Thanks to our sponsors who bring this show to you for free. Thanks to you guys for listening. See you soon.
From the publisher
Sports teams keep selling for more money because, in theory, their media rights keep becoming more valuable. But the companies that actually pay for sports TV are starting to push back.
John Ourand of Puck joins me to break down Bob Iger and Josh Kushner’s $12.5 billion deal for the Los Angeles Lakers— and whether the number makes sense if local and national TV money is no longer guaranteed to keep rising.
Then: the NFL wanted its TV partners to reopen their current rights deals early and pay more now. Fox’s Lachlan Murdoch said no, and John explains why NBC, ESPN, Amazon, and everyone else seems happy to let Fox take the heat. Also discussed: Apple’s very different bets on MLS and Formula 1, why ESPN let F1 go, and whether the WNBA is wisely spreading its games across many networks—or making fans hunt for them.
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