In short
Fast Money New Year’s Eve wrap and 2026 outlook—market winners/losers, volatility and rates, AI trade, oil/commodities risks, retail stocks, Buffett’s CEO transition, and UnitedHealth’s chart-based rebound thesis.
Guests (backgrounds)
- Halima Croft, RBC Capital Markets global head of commodity strategy (oil macro/risk ranking).
- Courtney Reagan, CNBC retail reporter/analyst (retail roundup and 2026 outlook).
- Carter Worth, chart analyst/technical trader (market and UNH technicals).
- Karen Finerman, investor/TV personality (risk/positioning calls).
- Guy Adami, market commentator/trader (volatility and rates discussion).
- Dan Nathan, portfolio/market strategist (equal-weight S&P and AI opportunities).
Key claims
- 2025 strong for indices (S&P +16%, Nasdaq +20%) but oil and Bitcoin weak; volatility likely returns in 2026.
- 10-year yields may rise toward ~4.5%, pressuring mortgages/homebuilders.
- AI winners need “return on investment” evidence; equal-weight S&P may outperform.
- Oil likely not oversupplied, with hidden risk in Brazil; Venezuela/Russia/Ukraine deal uncertainty.
- Retail resilience despite tariffs; value-seeking drove XRT +7.5%.
- Buffett stepping down shouldn’t break Berkshire; cash pile could help in a downturn.
- UnitedHealth’s lows are in; chart suggests reversal and early-2026 earnings “levitation.”
Notable examples
- Caterpillar “power business” as AI infrastructure proxy; J.P. Morgan multiple/productivity angle.
- SoftBank funding OpenAI/Stargate; sold NVIDIA/Arm exposure during funding.
- Retail: Five Below (+80%), Dollar General (+75%), Victoria’s Secret (+200% in 6 months), Lululemon (-45%).
- Oil: Brazil >4M bpd; Venezuela under 1M bpd; PDVSA shutting in due to tanker attacks.
- UNH down ~35% (worst since 2008); earnings expected Jan 27.
- UnitedHealth chart: uptrend line break/cup-and-handle style reversal.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VO2025 Market Wrap-Up
0:00 to 0:22
Recap of 2025 market performance and significant trends.
“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”
2025 Market Wrap-Up
1:54 to 3:00
Recap of 2025 market performance and significant trends.
“Plus, why the chart master, Carter Braxton, says this one's godlike chart is about to turn around to get a full roundup also of this year's retail winners and losers and some surprise names also.”
Global Economic Themes for 2026
3:00 to 4:40
Discussion of major global themes influencing the market next year.
“You know, it's probably about forty six times.”
Volatility Predictions and Economic Indicators
4:40 to 7:10
Traders share insights on volatility predictions and economic indicators.
“I think we're in for another type of volatility event in 2026.”
Investment Strategies for 2026
7:10 to 9:10
Advice on potential investment strategies for the upcoming year.
“And I just think that if we're going to have legs to this A.I.”
Market Dynamics and Risk Management
9:10 to 12:00
Discussion on market dynamics and risks including historical trends.
“But yeah, every time that we've seen that, and I think it's just about every time, certainly in the last, maybe up to 2007 or 2008, there was some down 20 where there's still more to go.”
Private Market Risks and Investment Insights
12:00 to 14:01
Insights into private market risks and implications for investors.
“you've got 150 stocks in the S &P that were down.”
Market Overview: Oil and Commodity Trends
14:01 to 15:10
Analyzing the current state of oil and market risks for the coming year.
“And you think to yourself, okay, well, NVIDIA, they're involved in this whole thing.”
Geopolitical Factors Impacting Oil Supply
15:10 to 18:16
Discussing the geopolitical risks affecting oil production, especially in Venezuela and Russia.
“Oil having one of its worst years in years, down about 20 percent.”
Future Projections for Oil Prices
18:16 to 21:19
Examining potential oil price movements and implications for domestic producers.
“But again, the Russians have basically said that they are considering a deal, but they never sign at the dotted line.”
Show all 21 chapters
Retail Sector Analysis and Insights
24:14 to 28:00
Evaluating the retail sector's performance amidst economic challenges and consumer trends.
“You had prices still well up from a few years ago, although headline inflation has come down a bit.”
Market Insights on Recent Earnings
28:00 to 28:31
Discussion about stock performance and key holdings in the market.
“And then going into earnings last month, the stock was trading at six times earnings and three and change times EBITDA.”
Warren Buffett's Legacy and Impact on Berkshire Hathaway
30:27 to 36:53
Analysis of Buffett's farewell and the implications for Berkshire Hathaway's future.
“This after 60 years of running the shop.”
Analysis of UnitedHealth's Stock Outlook
36:53 to 37:26
Discussion on the challenges and potential recovery of UnitedHealth stock.
“In the absence, though, of bad news, which we haven't gotten now for a period of time, I think you see a levitation in earnings.”
Global New Year Celebrations Overview
37:26 to 37:58
Highlights of New Year festivities happening around the world.
“New Year's Eve festivities, they are well underway around the world.”
Trader Picks for the New Year
37:58 to 41:37
Traders share their stock picks and predictions for the upcoming year.
“That's Bangkok, Thailand, Dubai doing what Dubai does, which is having the world's tallest building light up and shoot fireworks out of the top.”
IPO Market Updates and Performance
41:37 to 42:06
Discussion on the current state and future of the IPO market.
“So for me, it's energy, specifically XLE.”
IPO Market Challenges and Predictions for 2026
42:06 to 44:51
Discussion on the current state of the IPO market and expectations for 2026.
“Klarna and Venture Global, they have fallen big, Dan.”
Fast Money Live Event Highlights
44:51 to 45:50
Recap of the Fast Money Live event and details about exclusive gifts for fans.
“The ball's going to drop in Times Square.”
Final Trades and Predictions
45:58 to 47:17
Panel members share their final trade recommendations and market predictions.
“Remember when it used to trade a much higher multiple than Walmart?”
Final Trades and Predictions
47:23 to 48:47
Panel members share their final trade recommendations and market predictions.
“Ask your doctor about ZepBound Terzepatite, the first and only FDA-approved prescription medicine for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and adults with obesity.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward.
0:51The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Live from the NASDAQ Market Sight in the heart of New York City's Times Square. Look at that. And what will be the heart of the New York party because we are just hours away from the ball dropping. The official bell ringing in 2026, at least here on the East Coast. This is Fast Money. We have got a big New Year's Eve show for you. We are live. And as you probably heard me muttering, we are the last live show of the year, I do believe. All right. Cheers, by the way, to the year. Mark controlling out a third year of double-digit gains.
1:34We take a look at the winners, the losers, and what to expect in the new year. The year, by the way, good for your gas bill, but rough for oil, crude, clocking in its worst year in five years. But with so much drama around Russia, Venezuela, now even Nigeria, what are the big global themes to watch next year? Lee McCroft is here. Plus, why the chart master, Carter Braxton, says this one's godlike chart is about to turn around to get a full roundup also of this year's retail winners and losers and some surprise names also. What stocks may be ready to party next year and beyond the traders giving you their picks?
2:18Hi, everybody. I am Brian in once again for Melissa Lee. And as always, coming to you live, Studio B here at the NASDAQ. but a special night. And on your desk tonight, Carter Worth, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami. The only smart one was Karen Feinerman. That's true. Because she's not here physically. I don't even know how we're going to get out. All right, meantime, stocks riding a four-day losing streak to close out the year. But let's be honest, there's been a lot of reason to celebrate financially this year. The S &P 500 jumping over 16 % since January. It hit intraday records, Guy Don, how many times this year?
2:57I don't know. Why don't you tell me, Brian? Forty six times. You know, it's probably about forty six times. Good job. That's mathing. The Dow closing out its best year since 2021, while the Nasdaq trumping them all surging 20 percent, large part thanks to A.I. But it was not just big gains from big tech. Ten of the 11 sectors, they closed up this year. communications. Yeah, tech, industrials, the largest outperformers. Oh, and the metals we have talked so much about lately, silver and gold, looking at their best years since 1979, both trading near records of their own. Oil, though, a different story, settling for the year right around 57 bucks a barrel here in the state.
3:45And that, my friends, oil's worst year since 2020. And so-called digital gold, Bitcoin, also in the red. It did hit a record, though, about 125 ,000 and change in October. But overall, finishing the year week down about 6 % so far this year. There is a lot to do, a lot to discuss. We can also look ahead to where we go next year. Guy Dami, great to see you. Happy New Year. Got a New Year haircut, a new cut, new you. Yeah. Well, it's the same me. It's the same you.
4:20Melissa Lee:What do you see for next year? Always great to have you here. It's fun to come into Times Square on New Year's Eve. What do I see for next year? Does volatility come back? I think April, well, I shouldn't say a lot of people, definitely surprised me by how quickly the market recovered from what was a pretty significant sell-off and a volatility event that we hadn't seen in many, many years. That surprised me. I think we're in for another type of volatility event in 2026. 2026. I can't tell you when. I think it's going to be early. I also think the bond market is something that not enough people are paying attention to.
4:52Melissa Lee:So very quietly, TLT selling off yields going higher. I don't think the market cares until we get to about four and a half percent in the 10 year. But I think we're going there. And I also think four and a half percent. I do. Now, I'm probably the only one here that thinks that. But let's talk about it, because, by the way, that was not music to the ears of a lot of people out there hoping to buy a home in 2026, because mortgage rates largely tied to that 10-year Treasury. Sounds like Guy Adami might think mortgage rates could be going up, not down. Today on our call at 1230, the 30-year yields are as low as they've been in quite some time, which is the good news.
5:28Melissa Lee:I think the bad news is I do think 10-year yields go higher for a number of different reasons that we've talked about on this desk, not least of which what's going on globally with interest rates and obviously a global debt problem and this de-dollarization thing. I also think in terms of homebuilders quickly, as much as about interest rates, and we talked about this last night, it's equally about the employment situation where I think it's going to deteriorate next year as well. You know, it's an interesting point, Dan, about this year because in your reference last night, you talked about open AI, and we can get into that a little more about what happens.
5:58We forget, though, what happened in April. Two weeks, the tariff turmoil, markets collapsing. We talked about, you know, how low does this market go before one of the fastest rebounds? Are you seeing some kind of and by the way, it would be historically accurate to have one of these 10 or 15 percent drop. We get them every year.
6:18Melissa Lee:And that one was just a bit violent. And to Guy's point there, it was also that every risk asset went a bit haywire. And so that was one of the things that if you've been a long term market participant, you don't see those sorts of breaks that frequently. You know, we saw correlations basically go to one, and that's where some bad things happen generally in the market. So the likelihood of having another situation like that come all at once is probably not that great. But I think going into the new year, we obviously know where a lot of the performance came from this year, and we know why, right?
6:48Melissa Lee:We saw multiple expansion in a big way here. The expectations for earnings growth are, again, you know, low teens, I think, going into 2026. And so I would just say that there's a strong likelihood that whether we're up or down, let's say, in the first quarter, the first half or the whole year, that the equal weight S &P starts to outperform the S &P 500. You know, it almost doubled it up this year. The market cap weighted one. And I just think that if we're going to have legs to this A.I. trade, there's going to have to be some demonstration of return on the investment that a lot of these companies have made.
7:19Melissa Lee:The ones that have accrued most of the market cap. Right. Because of this sort of theme. And then it's going to be the ones who are purchasing this technology or building on top of it, if you think about this kind of application layer there. And so to me, I think that's where the opportunities are going to be across lots of different sectors. You know, Caterpillar was a name that we also talked about on the 1230 call. They have this power business. It's growing really fast. It's 50 percent of their revenues in the last quarter. If you go look at the stock, you look at the chart, it looks like one of the semis that is selling these sorts of GPUs.
7:51Melissa Lee:So to me, there's going to be stories like that they're going to have to kind of take over, in my opinion. Is that the second derivative AI trade, maybe third derivative AI trade? Yeah, but here's a good example. I mean, J.P. Morgan doubled up the performance of the S &P 500. He's trading at a multiple that has not traded a very long time. A lot of that, I think, is anticipation of them getting a return on the investments they've made, but also the fact that they're not going to have to hire as much. They're going to get better productivity. So those are some of the themes I think are working through the market right now.
8:17Yeah, you know, Karen, here's the dirty secret of the market, to Dan's point. It goes down. It doesn't just go down every year. It can go down violently. In fact, LPL Financial had a great chart on this today. Going back the last 10 years, four of those years, we had a 20 percent drawdown or more. Obviously, one of those was the COVID year. But having these sort of fast, violent swings down is not only not unheard of. At this point, is it fair to say it should be expected? It should. Yeah, I don't know. It should be expected every year. I mean, Dan talked about it happens often. It should be expected.
9:01And also, it really presents opportunities that are very hard to very hard to pull the trigger when something's down 20 percent. But yeah, every time that we've seen that, and I think it's just about every time, certainly in the last, maybe up to 2007 or 2008, there was some down 20 where there's still more to go. But every time it presents an opportunity. This year, I think it was a little bit unusual in that, to me, that drawdown seemed entirely a self-inflicted wound where other times it's something exogenous that you didn't expect, you didn't see coming. this one was self-inflicted and then self-corrected.
9:40And so that one was a little bit unusual. But let me ask it, Karen, let me ask it a different way. Sorry to interrupt. As a long-term holder, like you invest for the long run, have you gotten used to these drawdowns being faster and maybe the recoveries also being faster? We don't go down over a course of months, it feels like, anymore. I feel like we have three months of decline in three weeks, and then maybe we bounce back just as quickly. Yeah, I think that's a really good point. Things move so much quicker, news spread so much quicker, and markets move so much quicker. And I do think it's in this, I don't know, truncated space that used to take so much longer, which doesn't give you a lot of time to adjust to it.
10:26You know, so you have to, I mean, it's scary to stay long during those really difficult down periods. But that's what I try to do. And then when it's super scary, when the VIX goes as high as we've seen, like 55 or 60 or something like that, as difficult as it is, then it's time to buy. So I'm not wishing to see a VIX at 60. But if it gets there, I will be looking to buy things. Yeah. You've got to buy when it's the scariest. Carter, worth how the charts look heading into next year?
10:55Guy Adami:There's always good ones and bad ones. But a couple of things. I mean, I don't think anything's changed. I think it's important to say that. And it's important for everyone to know that. There have always been periods where markets go down quickly and recover quickly. 1987 was not a recession per se. It was a flash crash quick and over. If you think about the 2022 bear market, the S &P was down 27%. The Q was down 37%. That took 10 months. So a bear market, rather than a sort of a force majeure, right, an act of nowhere, the tariff kerfuffle, a bear market is duration-based. This sell-off this year is 21%, but it was just weeks, as you pointed out, because it was sort of associated with an event that was retracted almost as quickly as it was put on.
11:35Guy Adami:Tariffs, no. Tariffs, yes, and so forth. But overall, and there's no way around this, it's a sloppy year for the market. Let's talk about the market first. We know that only three sectors of the 11 outperformed, right? Only three. That would be industrials and, of course, tech and telecommunications. And the rest have underperformed. We also know that you're talking about within stocks that were just up on the year, you've got 150 stocks in the S &P that were down. And there is so much concentration. That is good until one day it doesn't work. If you look at how random it might be of the top five best performers, Newmont was one of them, a gold stock.
12:16Guy Adami:A brokerage was one of them, Robinhood. The rest, of course, are tech like WU and Seagate. So it was supposed to be a stock picker's market. Right. Rather than an index market. And guess what? It was. But it wasn't. Guess what? 71 percent of all actively managed mutual funds underperformed this year. One of the worst years in the past 10. They're stock pickers, professional stock pickers. It was a treacherous market. Fair point. Do you see it quickly? Do you see a bear market happening next year? Or is it just likely that we might get one of these? I hate to say run of the mill because they are, to Karen's point, scary.
12:51big drawdowns. Yeah.
12:53Guy Adami:So the average year going back to 28, you get typically an 8 to 10 percent drawdown at some point peak to trough in the 12 month period. Obviously, a more severe one like this year or just what you said during the COVID year. But those are sort of news related or, again, force majeure. Who can know whether a bear market is ahead? The real question is, if you take a long term view of equities, are equities expensive is a bad word and valuation is a terrible timing tool. Our equity is full. Has a lot of money been pushed in? Have a lot of people participated? And just as quickly as it can go up, it can go down.
13:27Guy Adami:Look at Bitcoin, right? Look how aggressive Tesla was on the way down before recovery. These are risk baskets.
13:35Melissa Lee:Yeah, I want to make another point. You just mentioned OpenAI. There are pockets of risk that are not being, I think, appreciated on a show like this, okay? Because we focus primarily on the public markets. But when you think of what happened this year, you know, SoftBank out of Japan had to fund$40 billion, okay, for Stargate and their investment in OpenAI. OpenAI is looking to raise more money at$850 billion market cap. Well, you know what? SoftBank squeaked it right in. They got that last, you know, $25 billion in on the second to last day of the year. And you think to yourself, okay, well, NVIDIA, they're involved in this whole thing.
14:08Melissa Lee:You know, everybody in this sort of ecosystem. And so you say to yourself, at some point, you know, we have right now Palantir is down 15 percent from its recent highs. Back in the spring, it sold off 45 percent from its recent highs. These guys are all really good at the marks. They're not taking them. Right. But when when SoftBank had to fund this opening, I think you know what they did. They sold their entire NVIDIA position. OK, they sold a lot of their arm position and they still own a lot of it. So my point is that in the in the private markets, there's pockets of risk and they've been funded by VCs, by private equity, by insurance companies, by pension funds, by sovereign wealth funds.
14:44Melissa Lee:And if things go bad, they can sell the things that they can sell or they sell the things that they can sell. And that's not something I believe is appreciated right now across the, you know, by multiple markets, if you will. Well, you're on the record. And as the kids would say, timestamp that. Guy Dami's a witness. It was a good year for stocks, but not a good year for any traders that were long oil. Oil having one of its worst years in years, down about 20 percent. American oil output is at a record high. Inventory globally, they're up. But there's also many big macro issues to focus on with oil, whether it's Russia or Venezuela, now even some developments in Nigeria.
15:27Let's talk about it all, more about the commodity, these risks and more. CNBC contributor, RBC Capital Markets, global head of commodity strategy, and somebody who took a break from a vacation to join us. No. Yes. And we do appreciate it, Halima. Thank you very much. Are you able to, you do these global macro better than anybody, are you able to rank sort of the risks that the oil markets are facing next year? I mean, the question is, Brian, are we going to be seriously oversupplied? What caught a lot of market participants by surprise this year was the OPEC decision to phase in barrels right after Tariff Liberation Day.
16:06I mean, they announced that they would be quickly bringing back, over 2 million barrels of production. We probably got half of that because it was mainly Saudi barrels. But that came against the backdrop, as you just mentioned, of very high U.S. production, continued high production out of Guyana, Brazil. So we had plenty of oil this year. And the big geopolitical stories that we would think about as disrupting oil supplies like the Iran-Israel-U.S. 12-day war really didn't lose any barrels on that. So the question is, is it the same story next year in terms of being awash in oil? Or is something going to happen seriously with Venezuela, Russia, watch the second story on Iran?
16:50But again, right now, everyone's saying we look like we have plenty of oil for next year. But you brought up kind of the hidden. I think that if I was going to say what's the hidden story of oil for 2025, I would say Brazil, because Brazil is now over four million barrels a day. I'm not going to say they came out of nowhere. But Petrobras has done a lot. Guyana, to your point, ExxonMobil and Chevron and Hess, they have come up considerably. Let's focus, though, quickly in that region on Venezuela. We know what's been happening with the oil tankers. If there were military action or Maduro leaves, would we view that as bullish or bearish for oil or maybe some combination of both on the time frame?
17:32I mean, we've talked about this before, Brian. I think a lot of market participants will quickly start penciling in a massive increase in Venezuelan output. Like when I covered Venezuela a couple of decades ago in the U.S. government, they were producing over 3 million barrels. You know, they're now under 1 million barrels of production. But this is going to be a long way back for Venezuela. It's going to require about 10 billion a year in investment and a stable security environment. And there really is a near-term risk on the already reduced supplies. We have reports that PDVSA is already having to shut in production because of these attacks on tankers and this de facto embargo declared by the United States.
18:09So the question is, do we have a chaotic transition in Venezuela that puts current output levels at risk? I would also say pay very close attention to Russia, because I think part of the softness in prices we've seen recently is this anticipation that Trump is going to get a deal that brings back more Russian volumes, removal of sanctions. But again, the Russians have basically said that they are considering a deal, but they never sign at the dotted line. And so do we really believe that this is going to be the year where Vladimir Putin makes significant territorial concessions when it comes to Ukraine?
18:47Not clear at all.
18:49Melissa Lee:Halima, I'm not sure if you know this, but Taylor Sheridan is a big Fast Money fan. And if he doesn't cast you in season three of Landman, And it's making a huge. Of course you do. You should be on it. Maybe Brian Sullivan should. I was going to say, why throw him like I'm happy to just wave in the background. Well, but Halima, I mean, I know. But my question to you is the following. First of all, I think it's going higher next year. But what is the price on the downside that really puts our domestic producers in a bit of a bind? Well, they would say current prices are suboptimal. But the question is, like, if you really get if we're holding in like the low 50s for WTI, like that is not a price that works for producers.
19:33The question is how many have hedged? Like, can they do this for a year? I mean, they talk about it being a tough price environment currently, but also some of the tariffs on aluminum and steel have not been great. There are labor issues in the sector. They've managed to keep production elevated this year. But can it continue at current levels if we don't have a more robust price environment? And I do think you're already starting to see when you talk about OPEC the other side of the production equation. The fact that OPEC has paused production increases, I think, is important. Like they're not signaling for 2026 that they're going to be putting a lot more supply on the market because, frankly, they don't have a lot of supplies left.
20:14I mean, there is not a lot of oil in the OPEC tank, so they just can't repeat what they did in 2025. They've also reserved the right, as they've said, Halima, to reverse it. They could cut output theoretically. A hundred percent. I mean, that is something a Saudi oil minister has been very clear about. And I think that the most bearish cases for oil just see the Saudis and the rest of OPEC saying we're going to give you everything in the tank. Whereas I think if we were staring down like an appreciably lower price environment, I do believe they would come back into the market. I don't think they want a massive inventory built.
20:49I think that's what they're concerned about. I don't think they want the market getting away from them. So it's not as much as price dependent. But how much do we have in terms of inventory builds? Well, we know how much we have. The fact that you're willing to say bye to your family for a couple of minutes, join us on vacation. We appreciate it. Happy New Year, Halima. And I hope that next year brings maybe a cameo in land menu. I wouldn't. You'd never know. That'd be amazing. Happy New Year to you and yours. Thank you very much. Thank you. Karen Feinemann, you willing to bet? Yes. You willing to buy oil and oil-related companies?
21:24Well, I have been this year, you know, in my acronym, which I get a lot of pushback on. OIH was in there for the second time. And once again, it just hasn't worked at all. All the reasons Guy always talks about. He talks about how much better these companies are run, how much more efficiently, how great the balance sheets are. All of that discipline. And yet, here we are again. I don't know. It's tiring. Are you tired, Brian? This is your space. I'm sorry. Here's what I don't know. And I'm just going to admit it. You know, it's hard to say you don't know something. Where does the OIH fit in carb?
21:59I'm not a great speller, but I'm trying to. It's obvious. E. It's obvious. Energy. Obvious to me. Okay. So O for obvious for the O-I-H, but the O is actually the E.
22:12Melissa Lee:So it's carbode. By the way, they sent out rules for this coming year, 26, and they were very specific. Yeah. And Karen, we'll get into that on a Friday show. We'll start this next year. It's Wednesday. All right. Happy New Year. On deck. Karen, we'll see you in a few minutes. All right. On deck. It was a rough year overall for retail. But if spending stays strong, could the retail sector see a big swing next year? Plus, the end of an era. Legendary investor Warren Buffett stepping down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. What it means with the stock and investors. Excellent.
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24:08See terms at discover.com slash credit card. All right, welcome back. It has been a wild ride for retail this year. You had tariffs in the news. You had prices still well up from a few years ago, although headline inflation has come down a bit. And some retail stocks popping even despite or maybe because of those things. Let's get the retail roundup from our friend, Dayton, Ohio's own, Courtney Reagan.
24:39Melissa Lee:Courtney Reagan. First in flight, Dayton, Ohio. It is. It is first in flight. I mean, just also where my wife went to high school. The Dayton Flyers, good basketball. You know who else at CNBC was raised or born in Dayton, Ohio? Michelle Caruso Cabrera. Michelle Caruso Cabrera. Dayton, Ohio. Courtney Reagan, we understand that you are there. Can you give us the retail roundup? Yes, I do appreciate the Ohio shout-out because the Ohio State Buckeyes are playing in just a few hours. Oh, wait. Well, anyway, the retail team for 2025, for me at least, sort of surprising for two reasons. Number one, the resilience of the consumer and retailers' ability to mitigate most of the tariff costs, at least to mute the impact for consumers.
25:21So the XRT was up about 7.5%. That's half the S &P 500. But if you would have told me that would have been the case in April, that retail would be positive at all, I would not have believed you. You can see the dramatic drop from that April 2nd tariff announcement. You mentioned it at the beginning of the show. So think how far we've come. Consumers were really value-seeking throughout the year. And I don't just mean price. So, yes, that's part of it, but also item attributes, meaning if there is value, consumers would pay for it, even if it was full price. Now, low price players soared, to be fair.
25:51Five below shares up 80 percent. Dollar General gained 75 percent. Dollar Tree, 64 percent. But specialty mall brands also did pretty well. American Eagle launched campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelsey. Shares grew 59 percent in 2025. Victoria's Secret gained 200 % in the last six months. Sort of a stealth rally there, 32 % for the year. UBS has both AEO and Victoria's Secret on its 2026 buy list. And as Macy's gets smaller, we're talking store footprint, its shares gained 30 % for the year. Kohl's new CEO also led the department store to 45 % share growth. Now, Tapestry's deal to buy Capri was blocked in late 2024, as you all remember, because we talked about it a lot.
26:35Thank goodness, I guess, because tapestry shares gained 96 percent for the year. Lululemon, though, shed 45 percent under some internal missteps and some competitive issues. Target missed out on that discount rally, too. Both of those names getting new leaders. PVH, Decker's RH among the biggest losers of the sector. But looking to 2026, Jeffries is more constructive on retail, although selective, saying Nike is its top pick. Also suggesting a short for on-holding, while UBS puts on-holding on its buy list. along with Ralph Lauren, TJX, Signet, and others. Brian, back over to you. It's a good rundown there, but very quickly, what was the name of that bakery donut place in Dayton you sent me to?
27:14Dorothy's? Bill's Donuts. Bill's. Bill's Donuts. I say Dorothy. Dorothy Lane Market also has amazing killer brownies. Bill's Donuts is closed between Christmas Eve and New Year's, but don't worry, we snuck in before they closed. Bill's and Dorothy Lane. Courtney Reagan, the best. Appreciate it. Happy New Year, guys. Happy New Year as well. Karen, you an owner. you a buyer of any of those names that Courtney just laid out? I do own TJX. I like that. I think that works in a tough environment or a good environment. She didn't mention Walmart, but I do like that. To me, my favorite one of the years she didn't mention was Abercrombie & Fitch, which started off the year with a disastrous downturn when they sort of pre, I guess, I don't know, guided down and the street went nuts.
28:02And then going into earnings last month, the stock was trading at six times earnings and three and change times EBITDA. It's up 90 % plus off of good earnings, solid earnings, but totally just left for dead with a great balance sheet. I don't know why. So I do own that. That's actually my biggest position in this space. Your biggest is A &F, Abercrombie & Fitch? Yes. Yes. Fantastic. Karen, we'll see in a few minutes. We went down first. There's a lot more fast money to come. In fact, here's what's coming up. Buffett's last day, the Oracle of Omaha stepping down after 60 years leading the charge at Berkshire Hathaway.
28:41What his departure means for the stock. Plus, a technical take on a once godlike stock. Where the chartmaster sees UnitedHealth heading in the new year. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site at Times Square. We're back right after this.
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30:26Legendary investor Warren Buffett wrapping up his final day as CEO Berkshire Hathaway. This after 60 years of running the shop. Yeah, 60. The A shares of Berkshire Hathaway trading at more than$750 ,000 a piece. Let's put that into perspective. Our data goes back to 1976. And back then, those Berkshire A shares were neat and tidy. Sixty nine dollars, not sixty nine thousand, just sixty nine dollars. And that, my friends, math tells us is a more than one point one million percent gain. Now, Buffett will remain chairman of the firm Carter Worth. End of an era. But the stock in the company goes on.
31:14Guy Adami:Yeah. What's your take? Well, the first thing is, while he's stopping now, he announced that he was going to stop literally at his all-time relative peak to the S &P, the stock performance. Literally going out on top. Literally going out on top. And he was sort of ridiculed as having missed a lot of this technology, just as he was in 1999 and 2000. We all know how that worked out for him very well. He's obviously a major shareholder of Apple, even though he's cut back. But the thing to note is that this insurance stock, and that's really what it is, right, despite all the other bells and whistles, railroads and candy and things, it has done better than the insurance group, right?
31:54Guy Adami:If you look at the State Street Insurance ETF, KIE, and you look at Berkshire, relative one-year, three-year, five-year, this stock, Warren, however you want to characterize it, they're one and the same, has done better than his peers, his peers being Allstate or Progressive or Chubb or AIG, etc., and so forth. Guy Adami, you do want Greg Abel, who is his new CEO, new-ish CEO. I'm not going to ask him to fill those shoes. That would probably be impossible. Is the company and the stock worth owning with Buffett gone as CEO?
32:29Melissa Lee:All right. So the short answer is yes. And I think one of the reasons the stock, Berkshire B, Berkshire, where you're looking at is underperformed for as long as it has now, probably eight or nine months, is because they've been accumulating a cash position. I think it's north of$370 billion. And in context, it's a trillion-dollar company. So percentage of market cap in cash is significant. And I think they're waiting for a rainy day. So I think there's a chance that if you see a downturn in the broader market, as penalized as they've been for having cash, they will be rewarded for being able to put it to work at a lower level.
33:03If we get that drawdown that Dan and you and others were talking about, that cash will come as a reward. Yes, sir.
33:09Melissa Lee:Well, let's be clear that we're talking about we're talking about something drawdown, Sully. And I think that happens every year. You know, on average, we get a 10 percent drawdown. So I think to Karen's point before, it's like that presents opportunities. It just depends how violent and why it happens. And the duration of these things is another one. So, again, I can string this into Berkshire. One of the reasons why they've had these periods of outperformance over the last 25 years is like think about when we've had these market disconnections. Right. He's gone on there and he's been the bid of last resort.
33:37Melissa Lee:I mean, I can't imagine how much money he made on those, you know, warrants and all the stock that he bought in the throes of the financial crisis.
33:45Guy Adami:And that was the relative performance peak. We only just now last year got above that. So his all-time peak in terms of performance as an asset compared to other things, which is what it's all that's what alpha is, right, was in October of 08 into early 09. That was the top. And he only just now. Well, literally banks were going to him for a bailout. Like, he was literally the godfather sitting back saying, oh, now you want a favor. Once he got the stamp of impruteur, right, his stamp, then Goldman was okay. Right? Lehman was not. Then Morgan Stanley. So whoever borrowed, took his money, they were money good.
34:15I don't know if he had a cat. Excuse me? It's a godfather reference.
34:19Melissa Lee:You know, that cat was not in the script. That's right. It just appeared on set. And Brando, the genius that he is, was able to integrate it into the scene. It's brilliant. I know. Now, I would say he's a big fan of the show, but unfortunately, Mr. Brando passed away. The freshman. Who slapped us? Karen coming in hot off the top rope. We do like that. By the way, the freshman, clearly Brando's best movie. All right, on deck. Why one huge health insurance stock may be ready to rally in 26.
34:57UnitedHealth ended the year down nearly 35 percent. It's its worst annual performance since the financial crisis in 2008. It was a difficult year, obviously, in many ways for UnitedHealth investors and its employees. But are there better times ahead next year for the company and for the stock? Let's find out. Carter Worth looking at the charts on UNH. What do you see?
35:18Guy Adami:I think so. So to your point, down 34%, 35%, the worst performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And I think the lows are in. Let's look at the charts one at a time. The first, of course, with no drawings, no lines. Number two, let's put some lines in. The stock is, since the lows of August, tracking a well-defined minor to intermediate uptrend line. Third iteration, the stock has broken above the well-defined downtrend line, in effect. for the past year. Next iteration, another way to depict the circumstance, the two lines together. It has moved up and out of those converging trend lines.
35:56Guy Adami:Yet again, another way, one might annotate it and call it a cup and handle. It doesn't matter what you call it. It has all the elements of reversal. One more, just for good measure. It has moved above the downtrend line. It is no longer making a series of lower lows, but is now a slight new intermediate high. Abandoned the biggest stock in the health care sector once upon a time and now no longer. Only 50 basis points in the S &P. I think it's this, Brian. If it's wrong, this judgment of mine, it's sideways. If it's right, it's up. I think down from here is a very low probability. I think the hard part about this analyzing this company guy, and on a very serious note, obviously, is you had one of their group CEOs who was murdered earlier this year.
36:44The trial is ongoing. The CEO withdraws all guidance. CEO then steps down. Hard to judge.
36:51Melissa Lee:It is 100 percent. In the absence, though, of bad news, which we haven't gotten now for a period of time, I think you see a levitation in earnings. Now, I'm not saying 18 and a half times next year's numbers are cheap. It's not. It's reasonable. The stock has been cheaper, obviously, earlier this year. But I also think that, you know, you could just start to see, again, if you don't have any headline risk, which we haven't seen, this stock is just going to fill that gap, I think, that we saw that Carter just had on his chart. And they report earnings, I believe, on January 27th. So I think this thing rallies in the early next year.
37:26All right. New Year's Eve festivities, they are well underway around the world. And up next, your traders will celebrate some stocks. they think are ready to party. They're on the clock. Look at that. Auckland, New Zealand. Happy New Year, Auckland. We're back right after this.
37:51All right, it's 5.45 here in the East Coast, but New Year's revelers around the world, they have already started to ring in the new year. There is a look at some of the celebrations we saw minutes and hours ago. Australia, New Zealand. That's Bangkok, Thailand, Dubai doing what Dubai does, which is having the world's tallest building light up and shoot fireworks out of the top. Greece officially welcoming the new year at the top of the hour. Happy New Year, Greece. And we are just over six hours from doing that same thing here in New York, pretty much right here. Guy Dummy, your favorite, the crystal ball.
38:30I was just there. You were just there. All right. And in that spirit, we asked our traders to give you their picks that they believe, as Guy Adami likes to say, apparently are ready to party. I've literally never heard him say that. But let's start off with Karen Feynman. Karen, start us off with a New Year treat. Right. Well, it's always the quiet ones who really party. so this one a little shameless in that you know it's our parent versant coming out on their own next week they're actually still part technically part of comcast but a couple things i think are interesting if you own comcast you own it for the rest of their business you don't own it for this so only about five or six percent of what you own will be this you might see it on your sheets and say you know what i don't want this i want the other stuff i'm just going to sell it i don't care what price.
39:22I love when people sell things at a price that they really don't care about. That creates an interesting opportunity. I think now management is unleashed to try to make these businesses as profitable as they can. And it's a good collection of businesses. CNBC, obviously, MS Now, golf, even WNBA, which I love, a good balance sheet. And so I think it's sort of an interesting risk reward, not a ton of risk. And we've seen, you know, some of these things left for dead. And then all of a sudden there's interest. And just this WBD battle alone has shown there's interest in all parts of media. So this is the quiet one that I think could have a nice 2026 party.
40:03I love it. Headquartered right across the way here in Times Square. And I would say you don't bet against this talent. Do you, Dan Nathan? Carter Worth?
40:18I'm not laughing. Carter Ward.
40:20Guy Adami:So I think an outlier this year, of course, the performance investment banks and brokers. We know that Morgan Stanley up 40 percent, Goldman up even more. Look at IBKR. Look at Robinhood up 200. If you look at the performance of the investment banks and brokers relative to the BKX, the spread is about as wide as you're going to get. So my hunch is to fade these brokers. They've had a great year banking and all the volatility and the trading and the commodity and so forth. And to favor the BKX, which has stable big banks such as JP Morgan, of course, but also U.S. Bancorp, PNC, and that sort of thing.
40:58Guy Adami:So investment banks and brokers paired against banks in general.
41:04Melissa Lee:Yeah, I like consumer Internet here. I think for the most part they've kind of been left for dead this year. And I think many of them will have like an AI moment next year. Maybe that's Spotify. Maybe it's Netflix. Maybe it's Uber or Snap I'll throw in there, too, which has honestly been left for dead there. So Pinterest is another one. So I think that, you know, some of these might breathe a little bit of fresh air next year in 2026. XLE has been trading sideways since the fall of 2022. If you look, Carter would say it's a textbook sort of plateau in terms of then getting to the next level, which I think we will in 2026.
41:37Melissa Lee:So for me, it's energy, specifically XLE. XLE, kind of a final trades before the final trades. I like it. All right. You know what I don't like? Cold weather. And the temperature here in Times Square may be dropping. In fact, we may celebrate the new year with the coldest night in nearly a decade. But the IPO market, it thawed this year. And up next, the hot and cold performances of some of this year's much anticipated new listings. We're back right after this.
42:36Klarna and Venture Global, they have fallen big, Dan. You flagged some of these moves. What are you looking at?
42:42Melissa Lee:Well, it's just interesting, right? We're all waiting for this IPO market to open up. It's been, you know, three, four years since we've had a lot of really good names come to market. Obviously, there's some pretty decent names there that we all know. But, you know, again, I don't think they're performing particularly well. When you think of$44 billion raised, I mean, we just talked about OpenAI is trying to raise$100 billion. So for me, what the big challenge is in 2026 for the IPO market is, can they bring these massive market caps? We've never seen it before. So it'll be really interesting.
43:10Melissa Lee:If they can't bring the big ones, they're not going to be able to bring a lot of these small ones. Karen? Yeah, so a couple things. I think that the pipeline has been clogged up because the SEC was closed. And so there's a number of them that are just waiting. And so there's been a little bit of traffic before they come on. And I do think we'll have a really good IPO year. Often, though, those super giant ones, like maybe a SpaceX or something like that, are so hyped up. But by the time they actually come, I'm trying to think of like when Facebook, which was Facebook at the time, very mediocre.
43:47Uber also at the time. Saudi Aramco, you would know far better than I, largest one ever. Very so-so at the time. So, I mean, it's good for banks. And I do like the big banks. but I like the fees for the big banks more than I probably like the stuff that they bring to market.
44:06Melissa Lee:Real quick, obviously Goldman Sachs has been a monster, as has Morgan Stanley, but I think NASDAQ continues not to get its just due. We're obviously sitting here, but I think when people realize it's a technology company and listings are coming back in a major way, Morgan Stanley just had a piece out, I believe on December 22nd, Brian, price target of 111. I think the way to play this is through the NASDAQ. Yeah, and by the way, quickly, I'm not saying it because we're sitting here. Adina Friedman, her team here at the NASDAQ, only a small part of their business is even listings. Their consultation business here, what's happening to people all around us, has been, I think, an underreported story.
44:41And again, I don't say that because I'm just sitting here. But it helps to be sitting here. Well, they'll let us out now.
44:46Melissa Lee:But I mean it sincerely. No, you're right. We've been saying it for a while. They do a remarkable job. Walmart came to NASDAQ. Up next, your final trades.
45:12The hats tell it all. A few minutes here, a few hours. The ball's going to drop in Times Square. We are counting you down. It was just a few weeks ago that our very own Guy Adama. There he is. Got an up-close and personal look at the ball ahead of Fast Money Live. Fast Money fans who are here for that event got an actual Waterford crystal from last year's ball. One of the other great gifts that our FM Live fans got was a special Fast Money calendar for next year, loaded with key market and economic data, along with great pictures and fun facts about all of our traders. And we are making this must-have calendar available now for the rest of our Fast fans.
45:50download, you can head over to cnbc.com backslash fast money 2026. Final trade time. Karen Feinemann. Yes, I'm going with Amazon. Remember when it used to trade a much higher multiple than Walmart? Well, that's changed. I think it should trade higher.
46:10Guy Adami:Rivian has been basing and bottoming for two and a half, three years. I bearish to bullish reversal. Oh, my.
46:17Melissa Lee:Snap has been doing the same thing. Bearish to bullish, basing, all that sort of stuff. The Louise Yamada sort of stuff. She's a legend in your field. Isn't she there? Snap has not had too many moments of late. It's going to have an AI moment next year. Snap.
46:35Melissa Lee:That's a pretty lame horn. What happened there, guy? Well, you should never blow your own horn, Brian. Uh, DVN, Devin, thanks for watching Fast Money. Happy New Year, everybody out there. We'll see you next year. Mad starts now.
47:12But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Snoring? Gasping during sleep? Feeling fatigued? Ask your doctor about ZepBound Terzepatite, the first and only FDA-approved prescription medicine for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and adults with obesity. Z-Bound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and obesity to improve their OSA.
47:48Z-Bound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. Z-Bound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pins or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction.
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From the publisher
2025 trading is in the books, with the S&P 500 locking in a 16% gain. How our traders are positioning into the new year after solid runs in some major stocks, and where they see the most opportunity in 2026. Plus, Charting out UnitedHealth’s next move. After a rough year for shares of the insurance giant, the Chartmaster Carter Worth is seeing some positive signals in the beaten down name. The key levels to watch, and where that stock could head in the new year.
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