A Decline in Chip Stocks Becomes Market Sell-off… Where Tech Sector is Heading 6/9/26

9 Jun 2026 · 44 min · 23 chapters

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In short

Fast Money episode (6/9/26) covers a high-volatility market day: tech stocks surged at the open, then plunged by midday (Nasdaq and SMH), before late-day dip-buying helped them close off lows. The panel links the whipsaw to increased June volatility, muted VIX response, and a broader rotation out of crowded “AI/semis” leadership into defensives (staples, health care) and cyclicals (homebuilders).

Key claims

AI compute demand remains “on track,” but valuations and financing conditions may tighten; hyperscaler capex could slow, creating potential excess GPU capacity.

Notable examples

Micron and Apple cited as still strong/weak; Nvidia selloff framed as a warning; Palantir “stuck in the mud.” Geopolitics is also discussed: U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iran after an Apache helicopter downing, with uncertainty whether it was intentional or a drone collision.

Guests

Stephen Whiting (CIO Group, CIO/chief investment strategist) and Tarek Mansour (CalSheet CEO/co-founder, perpetual futures prediction markets).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Market Dynamics: Tech Stocks in Turmoil

1:48 to 2:56

Analyzing today's market reversals and the tech sector's performance.

“Also a wild day for the other major averages, the Dow and S &P also failing to hold on to early gains.”

Volatility Insights: What Lies Ahead

2:57 to 4:59

Exploring the implications of market volatility and investor behavior.

“No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, go away guys.”

SpaceX IPO and Market Sentiment

5:00 to 7:00

Discussing the potential impacts of SpaceX's IPO on the market.

“And that is a lot of money aside from, you know, we had Google before and maybe better, maybe not.”

Demand for AI Compute and Its Consequences

7:01 to 8:10

Examining the demand for AI compute and its effects on the chip market.

“Were they the ATMs with which a SpaceX trade will be funded?”

Market Fundamentals: Are They Under Threat?

8:11 to 14:01

Assessing market fundamentals amid recent sell-offs and volatility.

“And, you know, I think this is where at this stage of the game, this cold circular financing thing comes into play a little bit.”

Market Momentum and Semiconductor Performance

14:01 to 18:10

Discusses recent market momentum, semiconductor performance, and the impact of AI on the economy.

“Should that make us feel better about the damage that we've seen?”

Concerns Over Economic Slowdown

18:11 to 19:05

Explores the potential economic impacts of a slowdown in AI spending and stagflation risks.

“I think it's underappreciated what the economic impact would be if we do see a slowdown in AI data infrastructure spend.”

Challenges for AI Companies

19:06 to 19:52

Analyzes the rising costs and profitability challenges faced by AI companies due to supply constraints.

“So again, it just feels like we could be on the precipice.”

Market Sentiment and VIX Indicators

19:53 to 20:28

Discusses market sentiment, VIX indicators, and potential signs of reaching market bottoms.

“I have a newfound appreciation for, you know, pretty mediocre intelligence because it's this expensive.”

Market Sentiment and VIX Indicators

21:41 to 22:33

Discusses market sentiment, VIX indicators, and potential signs of reaching market bottoms.

“All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.”
Show all 23 chapters

U.S. Military Response to Iran

22:41 to 24:22

Reports on the U.S. response to recent tensions with Iran and the implications for regional stability.

“Let's get back to Megan Casella with the details.”

Apple's Recent Struggles and Market Reaction

24:23 to 25:58

Analyzes Apple's stock decline and market reactions following the developers conference.

“Or could this go further, especially with the question out there of what Iran's retaliation now might look like?”

Congress and Immigration Funding Package

25:59 to 27:09

Discusses the House's passage of a funding package for immigration enforcement agencies.

“We said on the desk, 285 was a logical place.”

Prediction Markets and Future Trading Insights

27:10 to 28:00

Introduces CalSheet's prediction market and its recent trading success in perpetual futures.

“Coming up, prediction markets platform CalShit has surpassed $1 billion in perpetual futures trading less than a week after launching.”

Interview with Tarek Mansour

28:59 to 33:22

CEO Tarek Mansour discusses the future of perpetual futures and market opportunities.

“Prediction markets platform, CalShe, surpassing$1 billion in trading volume since launching perpetual futures contracts last week.”

Insider Trading Measures and Market Integrity

33:22 to 36:57

Mansour explains CalShe's proactive measures against insider trading.

“Right now, the perps are specifically for crypto.”

Speculation on CalShe Going Public

36:57 to 38:48

Host queries Mansour on potential bets regarding CalShe's IPO.

“So the Comodic Exchange Act bans insider trading.”

Market Gaps and Technical Analysis

42:03 to 42:24

Discussion on the significance of market gaps and technical changes in the SMH.

“and there's a huge one in the SMH from April when we gapped higher.”

Bright Spots in a Volatile Market

42:36 to 43:21

Exploration of sectors showing resilience amidst market volatility, including consumer staples and homebuilders.

“The consumer staple sector jumping more than a percent as investors rotate out of tech and into defensive names.”

Options Trading Insights

43:21 to 44:36

Analysis of how options traders are reacting to upcoming CPI data and Oracle earnings.

“Volatility ripping back into stocks today in the form of a massive reversal in software and setting up for a make or break moment in the red hot trade and perhaps the broader market.”

Oracle's Market Position and Challenges

44:36 to 46:34

Discussion on Oracle's current standing in the market and potential issues affecting its performance.

“Calls outpaced puts more than two to one in Oracle today.”

Concerns Over Oracle's Strategy

46:34 to 46:51

Debate on Oracle's strategy in relation to capital raising and competition in the AI infrastructure.

“I mean, look at this deal that Apollo and Blackstone just did, private credit deal,$35 billion to buy GPUs.”

Final Trades Discussion

46:51 to 47:29

Panelists share their final trades and investment insights before closing the show.

“Yeah, West is one of those higher quality, durable names that I think is a good port in the storm.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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1:02Tim Seymour:Live from the NASDAQ Market Sight and the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The reversal to the reversal. Stocks starting the day in the green before tumbling midday but closing well off session lows as investors seemingly bought the dip. What's behind today's wild gyrations? Where are we headed next? We'll debate that. Plus, while volatility spikes, so does interest in perpetual futures. The CEO and co-founder of CalSheet will be here. Predictions markets are surging, but so is criticism of this investment vehicle many are calling straight up gambling.

1:32Tim Seymour:And later, Apple's sour streak, where the chartmaster sees chips heading after the semi-swing. And now options traders are prepping for tomorrow's big earnings report from Oracle. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Julie Beal. We start off with a day full of major reversals. The tech stocks surging at the open, but the comeback had a really brief shelf life, both the Nasdaq and the SMH turning sharply lower by midday, but buyers came back late in the day, helping tech close well off session lows. Also a wild day for the other major averages, the Dow and S &P also failing to hold on to early gains.

2:08Tim Seymour:The Dow actually closing in the green. The tumult today extending beyond stocks, gold and silver with their lowest closes of the year. Gold now actually down for 2026. So what does this volatility tell us about where we go from here. Guy. 7 ,200 was the level we mentioned last week. We said it closed below 7 ,200 in the month of June. We have an outside reversal month for the first time we've seen that in quite some time. It was protected today. It makes sense. We're still early in the month. We had a 400-point range in the S &P today, which if you just came in and said, oh, the S &P is down 19 handles, doesn't seem like a big deal.

2:43It's a big deal. What I think it portends to is increased volatility for the month of June. I'm surprised at the muted response to the VIX. I do think it's going to get on its horse. And I think we're going to challenge that 7200 level again. Guy, you deserve props. You're one of those. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, go away guys. I've never used that term in my life. Are you sure? I mean, I feel like it's something that you kind of subscribe to. You know about the volatility, you know, on a day like today, when you see things just kind of fall out of bed and the things that have been the leadership, Right.

3:12Is it, you know, semis and memory and storage and the like and, you know, software, which has not been the leadership, but it's had a massive rally. I mean, the two of them, the sectors were just getting destroyed. And it's one of those things where I think it wasn't particularly fundamental. We've had some reasons over the last week or so going back to, I guess, Wednesday night with Broadcom's guidance. But I look around and I say to myself, all right, I saw banks up. I saw I saw, you know, homebuilders and there was staples were up when you might have expected staples as defensive. But there was a whole host of groups that were acting pretty well.

3:44And, you know, we think about the ability for the largest mega cap tech stocks, you know, to really drive the train. That's what they've been doing to the upside. It is interesting to see that there is plenty of sectors that weren't driven down by that. And so, you know, at the end of the day, oil was down. And I think that's something that if you're consumer related, retailers were trading pretty well. They like that. But when that headline came out around 1230 or so about, you know, geopolitics being infused back into the picture, Oil didn't rally much, right? And I thought that was kind of interesting.

4:15At the end of the day, it seems like investors want to continue to buy every dip that they can in the semis.

4:19Tim Seymour:Yeah, this is a clear rotation day, Karen, broadening out that we saw. Yes. You know, so they've talked to it already. The volatility, I thought, was the spread of the volatility, 17.5 on the low side, 23.5 on the high side, closing somewhere near-ish the middle. That is way worse of a day than if nothing happened, right? A lot of things went back and were kind of unchanged. And this is way worse than that, because it just, you know, one should be nervous. Right. Having a having just a peek at what a real, real sell off could be. And then we have, you know, this very big event on Thursday combined with the Anthropic filing and the OpenAI filing.

5:01And that is a lot of money aside from, you know, we had Google before and maybe better, maybe not. Who knows? But that's a lot of money. I feel like this is really setting up for SpaceX to be a very, very important event well beyond SpaceX. Just as market sentiment, where are we in the evolution of this story? I feel like the underlying evolution of the story is still very much on tack, insatiable demand for compute. But valuations don't need to track that exactly. So I don't know. I think we're in for a good bit of volatility coming up. I don't think that the VIX does not live here at 1987. Move somewhere.

5:39Tim Seymour:Yeah. I mean, it certainly felt like momentum has broken, even if for now, Julie Beal. I mean, we did see, for instance, small cap 600 up a percent, along with some of the other sectors that we had mentioned that had been out of favor and now gained a percent on the day. Materials, staples, discretionary. Well, discretion was a fraction of percent. Utilities, industrials. Yeah. And health care. So I think you definitely saw this rotation that continued what we saw in Friday, where quality suddenly was catching a bid, names that have been pretty much left for dead. And I think part of it is this reflection that a lot of momentum is resting on just a few shoulders, and that creates some concern.

6:20I think you're right, though, Karen, that the SpaceX IPO is really important because it tells us what is investor appetite for companies that don't have earnings. So much of the strength in this AI narrative is that the financing hasn't been that fragile. It's really been centered on free cash flow. And if we're suddenly turning our attention towards businesses that don't even have earnings, I think that really remains to be seen if investor appetite for that is strong. I know that retail investor appetite is strong, but I think I'm hearing a lot from my peers that anyone who's getting allocations plans to flip.

6:55And I think that's a real concern for any IPOs that follow on.

7:00Tim Seymour:So how does this fit into what we've seen over the past few days in terms of the sell-off, particularly in the high-momentum areas? Were they the ATMs with which a SpaceX trade will be funded? And once SpaceX goes public, how does that sort of then resume in the market? That's an explanation. I don't know if it is the explanation, but clearly you can draw that or that you can draw that straight line. Right. I don't know the answer to that, but there are only so many investment dollars to go around. But I do think the Karen's point, I think it's an important one. I think a lot. Forget about just the the the the duration of SpaceX as a publicly traded company.

7:39What it says about the broad market in this vacuum that we find ourselves in, I think is going to be really important. And I said this on the call today and I'll share it now and I'm not suggesting I'm right. But at a certain point today, and I still think this is a potential, you know, if the market behaves like this, there's a probably one in five chance that for whatever reason, due to market conditions, this doesn't happen on Thursday and Friday, which I think would be catastrophic for the market. So I think there's a lot riding on not the success of it happening, but how it trades in the aftermath.

8:09Yeah. And, you know, Karen, you just mentioned the insatiable demand for compute. And, you know, I think this is where at this stage of the game, this cold circular financing thing comes into play a little bit. And, you know, you think back to when Elon set out to build this Colossus in Memphis, right, and the speed in which they were doing it. And they bought a couple hundred thousand, you know, NVIDIA GPUs. Well, it ends up about a year and a half later, they're not using them. Right. And so when you think about that, if the allocations were so tight for NVIDIA GPUs a year and a half ago, we've heard this again and again.

8:38Well, if they're not using them and now they're renting them out to Google and Anthropic, you know, you start to wonder what the demand really looked like. You start to wonder who else is sitting on a bunch of these things and they're not renting them out or they're selling them out because they might need it in the future. And that setup is something that I don't think people are appreciating at this point, especially when you think about what Broadcom said. I mean, they miss their AI numbers. Now, you might say, well, they make TPUs for Google, and maybe TPUs don't do the thing to train the models, you know, that sort of thing.

9:08And maybe GPUs are better, and that's why Google remains a customer of NVIDIA. But you see it all coming around a little bit, right? And I think there's a point in which, and you just had the CEO of Crusoe on the last show, you know, they delayed a data center that's meant to go into Wyoming, right? And it was like one gigawatt or something like that. But right now, if you look out, you look at 27, you look at 28, what the expectations are for build out in gigawatt terms. Most of that has not been started yet. Most of the ground has not been dug yet. Right. And you start to think yourself, OK, well, maybe if the demand doesn't materialize in the near term and we'll have a slowdown, a delay in the construction of those things.

9:46And then you start to wonder all of those companies that were securing GPUs to go into those data centers. Well, we might end up in the not so distant future with like excess capacity. Right. And so I'm just saying like that is a potential, whether it happens in six months, a year, 18 months. Who knows? But there are little crumbs, breadcrumbs that are being dropped right now about how that could end up. And when you look at a stock like Nvidia sell off the way it did on a day like today. Yeah, they come back for it or whatever. You know, sooner or later, there's going to be a scenario where there's going to be a couple pieces of news that really caused this thing to slow down in general.

10:20And then when you look at some of these other stocks that have been affected, you know, Palantir keeps coming up to you. This was the poster child, how software was using this sort of technology to basically disintermediate a whole host of others. And that stock hasn't gone anywhere in a year. So I think when the fever breaks in some of these things, it breaks and it kind of stays broken for a while. So just to what you're saying about SpaceX and XAI and Grok, let's say, that's probably losing the calculus of, do I take these huge monthly payments, right, from Anthropic and from Google, right?

10:55Huge. Massive. 1.25. 2.2 together. 2.2 together. Monthly. Do we take that? Is that a better return on capital for our GPUs than using it for Grok? I would suggest, yes, it is. So to me, that doesn't. Seems like a smart thing to do. Yes. We can all agree on that. But my point is they bought them a year ago, right? And they took them from somebody else who want them. Right. And now they're sitting on a rack and now they're being used. And I'm just saying, like, at some point there is a pocket, an air pocket of this stuff that, you know, if you don't need it the way XAI didn't need it. Like the fact that GROC didn't work, that should be a huge surprise.

11:33I mean, like Elon, this is something that was so important to him. You know what I mean? So I don't know. I mean, if it's if Elon is failing at it, you have to assume some others are failing.

11:41Tim Seymour:So you're saying basically the tech self that we have seen over the past few days is fundamental driven. It's not just a break of momentum. It's not a correction, a reversion to the mean. It is fundamentally driven because of slowing demand for AI compute. Listen, NVIDIA is supposed to have 90 percent earnings growth like this year. That's astounding, right? Look at the look at what Palantir put up, 75 percent earnings growth. You know what I mean? And they're still out there. That's the consensus. And some of these stocks are kind of stuck in the mud, Palantir in particular. But, you know, listen, this is how it comes unwound.

12:12You know, at some point, I'm not saying it's happening right now, but like pay attention here, people. Like, some of the headlines, they're out there. I like the Progresso Italian seasoned breadcrumbs. I remember Dan just mentioned breadcrumbs. My grandmother...

12:27Tim Seymour:A panko, a plane. A panko. My grandmother used to make her own breadcrumbs. She's not alive anymore. I make my own sometimes, too. Anyway, new developments out of the Middle East, as President Trump says, the U.S. must respond after Iran shoots down a helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. Megan Casella has the details. Megan. Melissa, President Trump vowing retaliation against Iran for that incident, which he described as an Apache helicopter being shot down by the Iranians. Now, Iran has not directly claimed responsibility for that attack. An Iranian state media citing a military source reported just in the last half hour or so that no offensive air military operations have been conducted in the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.

13:08Now, that same military source says that in the event of renewed hostility by the enemy under the pretext, they say, of the crash of the U.S. Apache helicopter, then they say there will be a decisive response. All of this now threatening escalation in the U.S.'s war with Iran, coming, of course, after days of tit-for-tat strikes in the region. And it raises the question of what this means for ongoing peace talks. But one potentially critical point here is that it remains unclear as of now whether the helicopter was shot down on purpose or whether, as some reports this afternoon have suggested, it may have been an inadvertent collision with an Iranian drone.

13:44Now, I've asked CENTCOM for comment on those reports. They referred me to the White House. The White House has not responded. Melissa? All right.

13:51Tim Seymour:Megan, thank you, Megan Casella. Even with the recent volatility in stocks, our next guest says market fundamentals are intact. Stephen Whiting is the CIO and chief investment strategist at the CIO Group. Stephen, great to have you with us. Thank you. This is just a break in momentum. Should that make us feel better about the damage that we've seen? Well, we can debate fundamentals. There are things that will be uncovered, as you just said, that we will have to see. But when you have some companies, you can pick the name like Micron, Apple, nearly 200 percent year to date. Any kind of loss of momentum, a drop like 20 percent isn't really that material.

14:25We've had this incredible outperformance in everything AI. We're going on our third year compounding at a 65 percent growth rate of this piece of the economy. And so we all know that it's on an unsustainable path at some point. I don't think that it challenges the view that the spending numbers that we're seeing out of hyperscalers, that there is going to be a doubling in EPS for semiconductors this year. But about a week and a half ago, we were on and we said we had to take some profits. Some of these companies, especially outside of sort of the most advanced, those that are really providing the most to AI, have had all the returns of NVIDIA, for example, just the last three years.

15:05They've had it in just one year. So this is time. If you have a break in momentum, you could see it in gold and silver. It wasn't that they did anything wrong, but you could see a significant retrenchment if you're on Fast Money, if that leaves. I agree with you, Stephen. And Mel just asked Dan that question. And I'm with you. It's more technically driven, but technicals can be pretty powerful. We talked about some of these things that we're seeing. How powerful? You just sort of alluded to a sell-off. Can you quantify it? Well, I would feel much worse if earnings were actually under threat. And if you take a look at what happened, the ISM report, four-year high, every employment measure we've had has improved, every one of them.

15:45If you take a look at PMIs around the world, we've had a much larger disruption to energy supply, a smaller rise in price. And they're all performing better than if you would have read The Economist or anything else would have said that we would be in this shape. So I think the potential for us to get through this with a correction that you can buy is most likely. So thanks for being here, first of all, in person. What is enough of a correction where you'd say, all right, back in? I think you have to let the market tell you that. But when you look at semiconductors who just had the strongest performance relative to software since year 2000, it could be fairly substantial.

16:23And we're long term bullish. You know, it's like I think you should expect dispersion, but still outperformance over the longer term, but a pullback of some significant magnitude. So you've got to have something else in portfolios that we pointed out. If you take a look at everything from, you know, Con Ed to Caterpillar, if you take a look at health care, they were up today because there is something besides tech. The tech concentration in the market has been now enormous. If you count, you know, multiple sectors, the tech components of it, it's 50 percent of the American equity market. And a lot of other pieces are acting very much in line with high correlation to tech.

16:58So that's why when there is a real drop, it's going to be big.

17:02Tim Seymour:You said you're still long-term bullish technology. So the positions in other areas of the market, I mean, what we saw today was a broadening. How lasting, how durable is that going to be? I mean, should investors actually reposition accordingly or should you just stay long-tech because the fundamentals are still there? The fundamental story hasn't changed. I think you have to build portfolios for taking advantage. Innovation drives profits. You are able to do something better than someone else and you outperform them. And that's what you see in technology. If I looked at the 1920s, auto companies were the tech companies.

17:38They had two and a half times the performance of the S &P 500 in that decade. The economy is becoming technology and health care. You should be willing to structurally have that in portfolios, but know that the drawdowns can be massive. Now, again, I'm not calling the top on AI spending. But when we do have a top, when it goes from investment cycle to maintenance, it's going to matter a lot for semis. And there's still going to be tremendous advances in AI over that period.

18:07Tim Seymour:Stephen, great to see you. Thank you. Stephen Whiting of the CIO Group. What do you think? I think it's underappreciated what the economic impact would be if we do see a slowdown in AI data infrastructure spend. And, you know, think about the contribution we're getting to GDP right now. from that, you know, we have a lower end of the K that's not been particularly great, right? So if you see any weakness in a consumer on the higher end, and we've been talking about the trade down that's been going on, you know, you could find yourself in a situation where you have stagflation. I know we've used that expression a lot, but when you think about where inflation is, obviously, we're going to get a great reading on it tomorrow.

18:43I mean, that's something that will not be favorable for risk assets. It doesn't seem to be the thing that investors are particularly worried about right now. But I think all that stuff can kind of steamroll a little bit. And then you've got to extrapolate a little bit. Who is heavily exposed to this? Well, South Korea, you saw what happened to their market last week when you have a couple big names driving it. And then obviously, Taiwan would be affected. Japan would be affected. And they're already feeling the effects of higher oil energy costs from the war. So again, it just feels like we could be on the precipice.

19:13Tim Seymour:Precipice. The edge. Could be on the edge of something that we haven't seen in a while, where there's multiple concerns for the markets. Julia, your take? Yeah, I think that what really is central is understanding what the returns are going to be. And the problem that we have for Anthropic and OpenAI is that their costs just continue to go up because everything, it's not just that the NVIDIA chips are expensive, but the memory is expensive, the CPUs are more expensive because we're so supply constrained. And so that continues to erode the profitability that they can expect to earn. And if that doesn't look great, I don't think that the appetite is going to be as large as people are expecting.

19:52Part of it is just that it's really hard to do what these companies are trying to do economically, right? I have a newfound appreciation for, you know, pretty mediocre intelligence because it's this expensive. It's trillions of dollars to try to replace us all. I have newfound respect for us. I like how you group us all together. intelligence. You know, Karen typically says intelligent things. Yes, most of the time. You know who can say precipice? Nobody. You just did. I mean, he's really good at it. Well, if you get too close to the precipice, you could fall precipitously. Then you'd be a lemming.

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20:31No, you wouldn't necessarily be a lemming. But what I was going to say was, she said that Vicks doesn't live here. And she's right. You know, we asked the question, how will you know? You will know, I think, we're close to a bottom. When the VIX gets to somewhere in the low 30s, which over the last couple of years, that's been sort of your signal.

20:47Tim Seymour:Coming up, Apple's sour streak. What is fueling the tech giant's losses over the past week and why the developers conference and Siri revamp failed to deliver? Plus, co-founder and CEO prediction market CalSheet will join us next to detail the company's launch into perpetual futures, the surge in interest and his response to the pushback. Do not go anywhere fast when he's back too.

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22:40Tim Seymour:We've got breaking news out of the Middle East. Let's get back to Megan Casella with the details. Megan. Melissa, the United States is now formally retaliating against Iran for that downing of the Apache helicopter. We just learned on social media, U.S. Central Command saying that they began launching self-defense strikes against Iran at 5 p.m. Eastern today at the commander-in-chief's direction. in response to yesterday's downing of the U.S. Army Apache helicopter. The mission is a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression. Now, Melissa, as we were speaking about at the top of the hour, Iranian sources, according to Iranian state media, have already said that in the event of renewed hostility by the enemy, as they described it, that there would be a decisive response from Iran.

23:20So these self-defense strikes, as the U.S. is describing them, have just begun earlier this hour. Iran already vowing that they will retaliate to that. So now the question, of course, being how far will this spiral? How many sort of tit-for-tat strikes will we see from this? And what will that mean for sort of next steps in this war? And what will it mean for the ceasefire? Melissa?

23:39Tim Seymour:Right. Although we've seen the ceasefire really being tested on numerous occasions, and it still was deemed intact. Repeatedly tested. That's absolutely right. And we just don't know to what level of attacks might be described as breaking the ceasefire, ultimately. So far, nothing has been, including Iran firing missiles out of Israel over the weekend. We do know there's been some reporting, President Trump telling aides privately, according to the Wall Street Journal, that the killing of U.S. troops is what would get him to break the ceasefire and to end the ceasefire and get back into renewed military attacks.

24:14That is not what we saw here. There was this downing of the helicopter. Two pilots were rescued, though, and nobody was hurt or injured. That does raise the question of does that mean that that was not the president's red line and the ceasefire remains intact yet again? Or could this go further, especially with the question out there of what Iran's retaliation now might look like?

24:34Tim Seymour:All right, Megan, keep us posted. Thank you, Megan Cassell in Washington. Meantime, shares of Apple down nearly four percent, its third straight day of losses as investors leave WWDC26 feeling unimpressed despite an extensive AI rollout reveal. Some analysts on Wall Street excited about what came out of the conference, but some were not. UBS saying Siri AI is not a demand game changer. TD Cowan saying the announcements were shy of expectations. Barclays found Apple intelligence as not necessarily transformative. Julie Beal, this was not enough for you either? I mean, I think no one really should have been expecting anything super revolutionary for this company.

25:13I think they're continuing to take their time and slow roll this because they really believe that disruption is not necessarily the road to profits. I think that giving them time to really evaluate these models and make sure they're safe and that they fit in with the ethos makes a lot of sense. But I do think they're leaving some money on the table because I think that the ability for developers to work within the iOS ecosystem would be a great way for them to continue to grow that services business line. But I think for now, it just doesn't feel like it's a very comprehensive or impressive offering.

25:47You know, it comes back to the fundamentals and technicals. And we addressed it earlier in the show. But two days, whenever we talked about this, the reversal we saw on Apple, all time high, closed on the lows. This came out big volume day. We said on the desk, 285 was a logical place. That was a prior all time high-ish back in December. I think it got there today. A breach of that probably gets you to two. Dan probably has an up to 65 is a 200 day moving average, which you probably haven't visited since early April or so. But those are your levels, I think, right now on Apple.

26:18Tim Seymour:All right. We want to get back to Washington. Breaking news out of the House. Emily Wilkins got the details. Emily. Hey, Melissa. Well, the House just passed along party lines. That's 70 billion dollar package to fund ICE as well as Customs and Border Patrol. Obviously, this is something Congress has been debating for months now, but the bill has passed the House, will be going to the president's desk. This, of course, happened along a party line vote after Republicans decided they were going to go their own way on it, leaving Democrats out. Still a lot of drama in getting this done, but at least these two agencies now do have their additional funding, a key priority for Trump.

26:53And this might be one of the last bills that we actually see Congress be able to move this year. of still a few more things on their agenda. But of course, with the midterms around the corner, it's going to be very difficult to start getting anything else done like this.

27:07Tim Seymour:Melissa? Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. Coming up, prediction markets platform CalShit has surpassed $1 billion in perpetual futures trading less than a week after launching. CEO Tarek Mansoor will join us next. You're watching Fast Money Live from the Nasdaq market side in Times Square. Back right after this.

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28:59Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Prediction markets platform, CalShe, surpassing$1 billion in trading volume since launching perpetual futures contracts last week. It is the first CFTC regulated exchange of its kind in just a short time ago. The journal reporting CalShe plans require users to disclose where they work to make certain trades. Joining us here at the NASDAQ for an exclusive interview, CalShe CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour. Tarek, great to have you with us. There's a lot to talk about, but I want to first talk about perpetual futures. The$1 billion, That is notional plus leverage, just to be clear in terms of that number.

29:32Tim Seymour:So the demand is there. There have been a lot of criticisms. We had Terry Duffy on from the CME last week. Can you talk to why this product is suitable for the retail investor when it has been around the world? The U.K., for instance, has a ban on it. The EU has concerns over and limits leverage. Why should it be offered here in the U.S.? Yeah, well, so yes, we are honestly the results of an incredible billion in five days. You know, and you might know this, but our prediction market product took three and a half years to accumulate a billion dollars in notional volume. The demand is there. And actually offshore, in some of the, actually a lot of European jurisdictions and others, perpetual futures have been legalized and they've grown dramatically.

30:13And they're doing$90 trillion of volume now. So the demand is clearly there. And the question is why. The main thing, like the way that perpetual futures are different from futures is that they don't expire. So they're simpler for a retail participant and institutions. Sometimes you have a view on where something is going and by when. But a lot of times you just have a view on where something is going, not exactly by when. And futures, the issue with them is that they force you to basically have a view on when. So you have to close out the position and open it again if you want to hold it for longer, which makes you pay fees.

30:45whereas perpetuals avoid you those fees. So at the end of the day, they're simpler, they're cheaper, and they're more accessible for consumers. And, you know, I have a lot of respect for Terry. I think he's built an incredible company. But I think the incumbent don't love them because of that specific point, which is futures have to roll over where you pay fees, and perpetual put competitive pressure on those fees. But at the end of the day, they're improving consumer costs, and that's where we see the world heading.

31:06Tim Seymour:Some would say that the funding rate mechanism in and of itself can erode any sort of profits or it can really eat away at the position of the retail investor without them understanding that that has to exist in order to tie that contract to the spot price of whatever they're trading? That's not a new mechanism. I mean, there's two main criticisms, right? There's the leverage that people talk about, are these products have too much leverage, and then the funding rate mechanism and default, you know, the margin model. So two points, and I really think it's not about that. So leverage, we're offering around six and such, 6x leverage.

31:40That's what we're offering in these products, which is actually lower than a lot of retail futures product on CME. So, S &P futures are 15x. I mean, Dan, you might know this. I mean, I think FX is 60x, gold is 20x. So, all of which are actually higher leverage than these products. So, I don't think it's a question of leverage. And in terms of a risk model, I mean, this has always been Calci's approach. We're not trying to innovate on the risk methodology. That risk methodology that we're using, the auto-liquidation model, is actually a replica of the robust, well-tested model that CME and some of the incumbent exchanges have used at the CFC level.

32:11The innovation really comes on this expiry point. They just don't expire, which helps people essentially avoid paying these fees that we just discussed, avoiding these rollover fees. You know, Tarek, you guys, obviously sports has been a great way to start. How do you think about finance, markets, economic stuff? Because it's very small for you guys right now. And do you see like a big opportunity there? So the growth in like the finance markets for us is actually one of the largest. Actually, they're going faster in sports, faster in politics, some of the other markets. So the opportunity ahead of us is massive.

32:44The mission and the vision of CalShare has always been we want to build a next generation exchange, an exchange that captures a broader set of assets that is simpler and more accessible for the average consumer and that is dynamic. It's It's capturing the things that are happening around people's lives that they understand, they relate to. And so, yes, our act one was prediction markets. We've grown a lot during the 2024 election and politics was a huge sort of propeller for us. Sports was incredible. And now where Perpetual was launched, I think it's really spearheading us into our entry into more financial like products.

33:16And as you've seen, you know, a billion dollars in five days. You know, if I'm here in a month, I think those numbers and percentages will look very different.

33:22Tim Seymour:Right now, the perps are specifically for crypto. But are you envisioning that they will be offered on other assets? And I'm asking because I wonder I'm wondering if you think the regulatory environment is extremely in your favor, extremely in Polymarket's favor. I mean, a strategic advisor of yours is Donald Trump Jr. He's also a strategic advisor to Polymarket. And there have been reports that the CFTC, the staffing there is completely decimated and that things get through. And I'm just wondering how you perceive the environment right now for you to get new products approved. You know, I think, you know, like, yes, on more asset class with perpetuals.

33:54And I think that obviously perpetuals are happening now, but the call for making perpetuals, you know, a thing in America, legalized and regulated in America, has been around for a while. I mean, Schiller has basically been talking about this in the 90s, about the idea that a perpetual future for certain asset classes is better than a traditional future. And the way to kind of really sort of divide them is some asset classes, like agricultural products, they have a natural expiry. So you want a product, a derivative product, a future that has a natural expiry tied to that date. Others, like digital assets, don't have a natural expiry, right?

34:28Bitcoin lives on forever. And so you want a product that fits that sort of tenure, that doesn't have to unnecessarily expire and get people to pay fees unnecessarily. So I think the move and the work to bring perpetuals onshore has been ongoing for a very long time. And the cash playbook will always be the same. Take something that is working, that consumers want. Oftentimes it's proven either by our own consumers and their demand or offshore and bringing it in a safe, responsible, regulated way in America. And that's what we're doing with perpetuals. I'm sorry. You probably watched Terry on the show the other day.

34:59He made the point that perpetuals, by the law, the way the law is written, are not futures. Maybe at best they're swaps. But my question to you is not to debate that. Is there a world where they can live in tandem with one another here in the United States? I mean, they do. Right. I mean, as I said, Terry called me after the show and, you know, he mentioned I was a little upset. It's like, you know, why did you have to call out Calci that way? And he's like, well, I didn't mean it specifically with Calci. I know you're building a great company. I think he mentioned it in a call or conference the day after.

35:29But I have a lot of respect for Terry. I mean, I think we disagree on this point. I think what this is about, they are living in tandem. They have, for example, CME has Bitcoin futures and Calci has Bitcoin perpetuals and other companies will have perpetuals as well. And probably CME will have perpetuals as well. The main difference is if you want a position on where Bitcoin is going to be in November, before perpetuals, what you have to do is open the CME Bitcoin future, pay fees at opening, and then you pay rollover fees every month from now till November. You pay fees six times from today till November.

35:59With a perpetual, same exact leverage, same risk model, the well-regulated, robust, tested risk model that CME offers. The difference is you open the position today, and you can close it in November, and you pay significantly less fees. You don't have to pay fees six times from now till November. That brings competitive pressure on these rollover fees, right? And these fees are, you know, a part, a decent part of the revenue of some of these incumbent exchanges. And so it's normal for them to take that position. But I think they will coexist. They will be together. And the consumers are speaking loudly.

36:25You know, things that bring innovation to consumers in a regulated way and they reduce their costs are at the end of the better for the end consumers. And we're excited to do more on that front.

36:32Tim Seymour:I want to ask you about this effort to get ahead of the insider trading issue by asking people where they work. Because as I see in the journal article, you're not going to actually enforce it unless there is suspicious trading activity. So what do you think that does? Do you think that people actually are using the, like, a big source of insider trading is because they work at a place and they're using that information to place bets? Yeah, well, so insider trading is banned on Calci because it's banned under the law. So the Comodic Exchange Act bans insider trading. And putting the law aside, I mean, insider trading is bad because if people feel like the marketplace is unfair, well, they'll stop trading.

37:09That's why insider trading is banned in the first place. So I can't speak about the offshore markets and a lot of the headlines that we've been seeing, but CalShift has had a very stiff and robust approach to insider trading. And there's rules around how we should monitor it. But this falls in the bucket of CalShift going above and beyond what is required by the current regulations. So we're doing a lot of self-regulation based on the data and what we're seeing in the marketplace. And so one of the things that we've done, and I think a lot of you, most insider trading measures in traditional stock market, whereas NASDAQ, NISI, all the others, are retroactive.

37:37So something happens, a surveillance system flags it, and then you run an investigation, and then you find wrongdoing and you punish. We do all of that. Now, we're going beyond that where we essentially proactively ban people from participating in certain markets. So, for example, if you're a member of Congress, we ban you from participating on anything that may relate to Congress. If you're an athlete, we actually ban you from participating in your own league. Now, this measure falls in that bucket. So we have a risk scoring around certain markets that may have a heightened sense of manipulation.

38:07For example, company KPIs, what a company, you know, what Tesla is going to report in terms of number of cars. And we use this sort of employment checks to check if somebody that works at the company is attempting to commit insider trading before they place a trade so we can ban them before they do it. And I'm very excited about these types of measures. They're working, and they're also an education tool because you tell people stop before they try to do something wrong. And we're going to do more on that front.

38:29Tim Seymour:Are there any bets right now open about when CalShield will go public? Not on us, not on regulated venues yet. We would need regulatory approval for that. And what do you say to it? Well, once you have the market, we'll listen to market. That's the whole point of the market is not to listen to me. Tarek, thanks for coming by. Thanks a lot for having me. Tarek Mencer. And a quick note, CNBC and Calci have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Coming up, the technical take on today's Chip Crunch, where the Chartmaster sees the group heading next.

38:59Tim Seymour:And if there's more pain ahead, Fast Money is back in two.

39:05Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money, a volatile session for markets today. Stocks starting the day higher before tumbling midday, but all three indices cutting their losses into the close. The S &P ending the day down just a quarter of a percent, the Nasdaq down about a percent and falling as much as three and a half percent at its lows, and the Dow managed to turn positive. Shares of United Rentals continuing to climb. The stock hitting a fresh record high today. Shares up more than 35 percent so far this year and shares of Supermicro dropping after hours. The company announcing a proposed$7 billion offering of equity and equity linked financing, the proceeds of which will help fulfill nearly$40 billion of AI server orders the company says it received in recent weeks.

39:44Tim Seymour:Stock is down 8 percent. Karen, I don't know where you mean you point out Supermicro, but you are in rentals, which was the R in CARB. Of course it was. It was the R in CARB. That was a great one last year. Still is a great story, but it hasn't it hasn't really changed much. Just the valuation has changed, and I'm actually looking to sell some upside calls. I love the management. I love the business, but the valuation can fluctuate. Meantime, chip stocks selling off midday before recovering some losses. Micron, AMD, Marvell, Broadcom, Intel, Qualcomm, and Arm all still end of the day in the red.

40:16Tim Seymour:Several of these stocks seen double-digit losses in just a week. For more on semiconductor technicals, let's bring in the chart master, Carter Braxton Wirth. Carter, where do you see the group now? Well, obviously, this is the center of the storm, both on the way up. You wouldn't call that a storm out on the way down. It's where all the money is. It's where all the hopes and dreams are. And it's been great. But the crack, I think, is real. Let's look at some charts and try to divine the way forward together. Here is the Sox index with no lines, no judgments. Let's put some lines in. What do we know?

40:47If you look at the next iteration, it's this very steep move. All equities moved off the March 30 low. S &P up 20 in that period, 20 percent. Q's up 34. Tech sector up 47. Sox almost double up 97. Just a real runaway hysterical sort of move. And then, of course, the crack, the crack of the past several days, starting with Friday's 10 % down day. Next iteration. So the question is, are we still okay? Are we likely to give back more? My hunch is give back more. It would hardly damage the chart. Now, do we get all the way down to that trend line. That trend line connects two points. Now, remember, any two points can be connected.

41:27That's hardly a trend line. That's, of course, the lows of tariffs in March and then the lows of the Iran-U.S. dust-up. And so last chart, that trend line is also just about where the smoothing maximum, the 150-day moving average comes into play. My hunch is you just have to make a decision. Do you increase exposure to semis here by the dip? Do you reduce exposure? I'm in the bladder can reduce exposure. I would use any day-to-day bounces, such as the one yesterday, to take measures.

41:57Tim Seymour:Carter, thank you. Carter Braxton Worth of Worth Charting. Which camp would you be in, Guy? Carter will say correctly that all gaps inevitably are filled, and there's a huge one in the SMH from April when we gapped higher. I think it comes in around that 430 level, and I'm with him. Again, it's not about the fundamentals changing. I don't think they really have all that much. The technicals have changed in a meaningful way, and I think there's an inevitability to fill that gap to the downside in the SMH. Coming up, ports in the storm where investors found some safety in today's market swings when Fast Money returns.

42:35Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. A few bright spots in today's market. The consumer staple sector jumping more than a percent as investors rotate out of tech and into defensive names. James Smucker surging 10 percent after topping earnings estimates this morning. It's best day since 2008. Homebuilders boosted by some positive home sales data this morning. The ITV up more than 4 percent. And health care also continuing its climb. The XLV up nearly 8 percent over the past month. Coming up, how option traders are hedging against the volatility and the action we saw in today's Whipsaw on Wall Street. The details next.

43:06Tim Seymour:And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the president and vice chairman of Meta. Catch the full interview, top of the hour on Mad Money. More Fast Money in two.

43:20Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Volatility ripping back into stocks today in the form of a massive reversal in software and setting up for a make or break moment in the red hot trade and perhaps the broader market. And we get CPI data before the bell and Oracle earnings after the bell tomorrow. Our Oliver Rennick is on the CBO trading floor with more on how options traders are playing the volatility in this space. Oliver. Hey, Melissa, options traders are leaning optimistic into those two big events. First, CPI. It's expected to hit above 4 % for the first time in three years, but options trading around interest rate sensitive stocks today suggest it might be priced in.

43:56Call buying outpaced puts in the regional bank ETF KRE, homebuilders XHB, and the long-term bond ETF TLT, even as odds of a hike in December moved up to 43%. And that other big event we're watching, of course, is Oracle earnings after the bell. The stock is the biggest weighting in the popular software ETF IGV and could be the deciding factor for the next move of the big tech trade. Options traders think we'll get a 12 % swing in Oracle after earnings, the biggest implied move going into a report since March 2020. It's high pressure for a stock that's leading the IGV by 15 percentage points this year.

44:36Calls outpaced puts more than two to one in Oracle today. And the most popular contract by volume was the 250 strike call expiring Friday. A bet the stock will rally more than 20 percent into the weekend. Melissa.

44:50Tim Seymour:Oliver, thank you. Oliver Rennick at SIBO. Interesting, the bullish trades and the sort of the interest rate sensitive stocks. Those are, though, also the areas in the market today where we just saw rotation into because the tech trade came off. Home Depot, one of the best things that's had in a while. Target very quietly up 50 percent from the lows. Tim and Karen have been talking about that. Retail's done well. Homebuilders, surprisingly so. Maybe it's optimism around the numbers. Maybe people think rates are going lower. Obviously, the unemployment rate helped, but I'd still be a seller of homebuilders here.

45:18Can I ask Dan a question? Sure. Dan, Oracle straddle at 12-ish percent. Seller? I mean, I think it's hard to pick a direction here because if you look at that move off the bottom, I mean, any disappointment there, the stock's sitting down 10 percent. You know what I mean? But 12 percent seems a little much.

45:36Tim Seymour:Yeah. Julie, you're nodding in agreement. Yeah, I agree. I think it's go time for Oracle. And, you know, these quarters have been pretty tough for them. I think any kind of disappointment when you've had this much move this quickly, you really, really have to deliver. Yeah. I mean, is it your sense, Dan, that Oracle has Oracle specific issues or will it be sort of the bellwether kind of impact on the IGB? Because we've already been through a period where we've had a number of companies, ServiceNow, Workday come out, and their earnings were good, and it helped lift the IGB overall. Well, I think there's a battle going on in the IGB.

46:09If you think about Oracle and think about Palantir, I mean, these are huge components of it. And, you know, Oracle has had this huge rally off the bottom, and Palantir can't get out of its own way. But Palantir was one of the reasons why it was acting so well, let's say, a year ago. I think Oracle is far from a software stock right now. They've gone to very, very asset heavy, and they've had to raise a lot of debt to do that. They said they're not doing any more. Good luck with that. I mean, look at this deal that Apollo and Blackstone just did, private credit deal,$35 billion to buy GPUs. I mean, at some point, Oracle is going to have to get a bit more creative, especially if they want to stick to the guidance that they gave about capital raising.

46:46So to me, this is like probably one of the worst stories in the entire AI infrastructure trade.

46:51Tim Seymour:Quite a call. Up next, Final Trades.

46:59Final trade time, Julie Beal. Yeah, West is one of those higher quality, durable names that I think is a good port in the storm. Karen. Yes, URI. I love so much about it, except valuation and I've got to sell some upside calls. Dan. Yeah, SMH, I think it's on the precipice of a big drop that probably takes out the lows from earlier today and yesterday. Guy. The fans want to know, Melissa did watch parts of the NBA basketball game last night. You did not watch it in its entirety, but you'll be watching tomorrow night. Is that true? Perhaps. We'll see. I'm McDonald's while you're watching, Milms.

47:31Tim Seymour:All right. Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money. Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

48:04To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. At Strayer University, we help students like you go from, is it possible? To anything is possible by offering access to up to 10 no-cost Gen Ed courses so you can reach your goals affordably and fast. Visit Strayer.edu to learn more. No-cost Gen Ed is provided by Strayer University affiliate Sophia. Eligibility rules apply. Connect with us for details. Strayer University is certified to operate in Virginia by Shev and as many campuses including at 2121 15th Street North in Arlington, Virginia.

From the publisher

A strong start for chip companies suddenly took a turn for the worse in a market sell-off. The traders break down what the reversal means for chip price levels and the broader tech market going forward. Then, Kalshi Co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour talks perpetual futures and the prediction market surge. Plus, why Apple’s price is tumbling after its disappointing Worldwide Developers Conference, why investors are piling into defensives, and earnings to look out for tomorrow.

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