A Jam-Packed Week Of Earnings… And The Latest on US-China Trade 7/28/25

0:01Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast China wrapping up day one of their latest trade talks as the August deadline looms over the markets. Will a deal get hammered out and what will it mean for stocks? Plus, just buy it. Why, one top analyst says it is now the time to swoosh into the long struggle. Oh, boy. Nike shares of AMD hitting a 52-week high on news of its hiking prices of a key AI chip. And not so godlike, UnitedHealth is single-handedly keeping the Dow from hitting records. Is there anything that can turn this stock around as it reports earnings tomorrow morning?

0:48I'm Melissa Lee. We come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. And we start off with what could be a make-or-break week for markets. The Nasdaq and S &P 500 eking out new record closes today. But investors now turning their attention from the trade deal signed with the European Union on Sunday to the busiest week of earnings season and key economic data on deck. Nearly a third of the S &P and nine Dow components out with results this week. Tech titans, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple headlining the action. But we also get important reads from other sectors with Visa, Starbucks, Qualcomm, Ford, Exxon Mobil, among the names on the calendar.

1:25On top of this, a huge slate of economic events, including a Fed decision on Wednesday, PCE out Thursday, jobs report Friday. So is stocks trading just off of records? Could this week's events be an inflection point? Oh, boy. Why, oh, boy, Tim? I mean, you just laid it out there. I mean, anything could happen. Pretty much anything that could go on in markets is happening this week. So at the risk of I guess now I'm talking. Yes, you are talking. Well, what's interesting, markets always there. There's a moment where you say, you know, you buy the rumor and you sell the fact. And is the EU trade deal or essentially looking like we're at the place where trade deals are going to be concluded by April 1.

2:02Is it the sell the fact because we priced it in or is it sell the fact because tariffs now really are an issue. We've got tariffs that are now six times what they were when Trump took office. and we've got the highest tariffs in post-World War history. So I do think at some point that's going to be an issue. And I do think we've kind of we've inched higher every time we get some better news. I thought last week's Japan news was the kind of news that the market really liked. But as you pointed out, almost everything that could bother the markets is happening this week. The one part that I think is probably going to be OK, but is the biggest part for markets as we get into the fall, is that jobs number.

2:40The jobs number is the most important ingredient for what the Fed is going to do. And I think if the Fed is going to be more aggressive, meaning more dovish, you're going to have to start to see some weakness there. We're not even close to that. But markets aren't priced for any weakness in the labor market. So, again, markets are going to all this at all time highs. I'm not saying it's sell the fact, but I'm telling you the fact is very real. And I'm not sure we price that in. It's always about without a question. Earnings matter. I mean, to state the obvious UPS tomorrow. I'm interested in that because it's been a disaster now for the better part of three and a half, four years.

3:11Stock's been cut in half. Is it a UPS thing or are there other things at work here? It has been a UPS problem specifically. I think Coinbase on Thursday is fascinating. Given the run, they better say something great. Otherwise, valuation gets in the way. But to Tim's point, jobs matter. And I'll say this again. The bond market is really stubborn here. And I think people are starting to come to the realization. Wait a second. I thought yields were supposed to go down. and they're actually starting to tick up. Now, I understand the market doesn't care. There's going to be a level where it starts to care.

3:40And I think today was an indication we might be getting closer. Yeah, tech earnings for 500, Mel. That's the one I want to focus on here because I think Google told us a little something yesterday. Good quarter, good guide. They kind of had commentary in and around the things that people were most worried about here. And it was good quarter, right, all around. But then that CapEx thing, you know, a year ago, that would have been like a sort of bullish thing. Now it's almost an acknowledgement of how they have to play catch up, depending upon where that spend is going. I think that could be a focus for Meta.

4:09We know that they've been spending like drunken sailors on talent. We know that they've been kind of committing to more and more cap backs. And we also know that Llama 3 is just not a great model. And it's just not kind of stacking up pretty well against what OpenAI and those sorts of things are shipping. So given the run that a lot of those stocks have, given the multiples of where they are, And again, I know that's not that important, but it's important if you start to see this CapEx being a drag on profitability at some point, especially if you're not monetizing it on the other side. So Microsoft is probably the one that's going to demonstrate what they've done last quarter with Azure.

4:42You know, they've seen an uptick in that and they're actually getting some traction as far as AI sales. A lot of that has to do with their open AI relationship. But I think all of them, if they put up those quarters and they put up the guidance and they don't rally, I think it's kind of telling you I don't know what else is going to kind of be the next leg of this rally. I thought you were mentioning Alphabet because of the reaction or lack of reaction on the back of earnings. Because even if you thought they were good, the fact that the stock finished the day up a percent the day after is not great.

5:09Take a look at Netflix. That quarter was really good. It's down 7 % roughly since they reported earnings. OK, just to play the devil's advocate. So running into earnings, Netflix was up enormously. Alphabet was up enormously. And you have Meta is up. It's not it is not at an all time high. Amazon also up, not at an all time high. I'm optimistic on Meta and Amazon's earnings. I think with the VIX here and how far the markets come, I think you've got to have some protection. So that's what I've been doing, even though I'm staying long. Remember when Liberation Day was announced. So you had this tariff levels that nobody ever imagined anything remotely close.

5:54So one of the things that was super damaging was confidence. Right. Right. Confidence is back. We're starting to see a lot of spend. And when you look at what part of the big, beautiful bill was, I come back again to this CapEx thing. And there is a confidence there that people are willing to spend. We also started to see bank regulations come in a little bit. But bank earnings did, banks did very well. They've come back a little bit. But so I think earnings will be OK. Whether or not those stocks will be up or not, I'm not really sure. To me, the data points about PCE and labor are even more important because I think another leg of this market will be what does the Fed do?

6:38Sure. But to connect what you and Tim are saying in terms of tariffs, now we have certainty, which is great for the market. Certainty-ish. Yeah, certainty-ish. As long as they last, they last. Right, and they're working on them. The deal's in place. And we know that it's much greater than what tariffs had been six months ago or a year ago, but we knew they were going to be a baseline 10 percent. So do you start factoring 15 percent versus 10 percent, the impact on the labor market, and therefore you see things much worse? I mean, is that how does it go? OK, so here's the thing about tariffs, though.

7:11So let's say you're Amazon and you import and you pay a 15 percent tariff. That's 15 percent of your cost of goods. It's not 15 percent. Right. It's so it's depending on what your gross margin is. Right. It's not a 15 percent increase on what the consumer necessarily pays. Plus, maybe Amazon eats some of that. Maybe the supplier does. Maybe the customer does. So I think the tariff could be tempered on some kinds of things. So I'm not quite as worried about that. Well, we've had the conversation on the desk from either consumer apparel, consumer discretionary analysts that have said a little clarity goes a long way in terms of what the markets can now do in terms of begin to price it in and that companies will absorb some and that the consumers will absorb some and everyone should be OK.

8:02I still think there's a big issue. And just to be clear, today was also another one of those days. You come in, you see Europe down 1%, 1.5%. You see the dollar up almost 1%. And it's, hey, is U.S. exceptionalism back on as a trade? And I don't think it was totally off as a trade, but I don't think it's back on just because of today. And I think we talk about positioning. That dollar positioning in terms of the bear side of the dollar call is probably the most crowded trade out there in terms of the perception. So you get a headline like we got today. but ultimately deregulation, tax cuts, those things are great, but tariffs are not good for the economy.

8:37Is today the day we start to price in a slower rest of the world? There's a couple people out there talking about that, but I just think it's important to say that today, the trades that were really important in the first half of the year, and as someone that manages an international fund and someone who thinks about this MIGA trade, I don't think you just reversed field in one day. In fact, if anything, the fact that you've cemented these tariffs, I think ultimately it's dollar negative. And I think you're going to get to a place where that trade is back on. A week and a half or so ago, I think Carter Worth had a note out about countertrend move in the dollar playing for upside.

9:10He was spot on. His timing was right. Tim is right as well. I think this is just a bounce off an oversold condition. And go back and listen to what President Trump said, I believe, on Friday. And I've been pointing this out. We've been trying to point out for a while. In 16 through 20, that was the first administration that openly talked about the dollar being too strong and the want for a weaker dollar, although they will say that they like a stronger dollar. He said it again on Friday that a strong dollar actually hurts us, doesn't help us. Now, I don't necessarily agree with that, although when you're$38 trillion in the hole, I get it.

9:41But they clearly want the dollar to continue to deteriorate. China, they're meeting right now in Stockholm, Besant and his counterpart. What happens if they say there's some sort of deal? And granted, a deal is in the eyes of the beholder. A deal is in the eyes of who is talking about that deal and how they are spinning it. But if they're able to say that they're going to walk away with a win, they're going to extend that tariff deadline from August 12th to whatever it is, 90 days out. Do the markets rally? I don't know. I think we've gotten a lot of rally. I think there's certain parts of the market that will rally.

10:10I want to continue to buy China tech. I think there will be other places to play. I think the semiconductor space will be very happy about that. NVIDIA will be very happy about that. Maybe even Apple will be happy about that. And you can be sure they're going to tell you they got a trade deal. Both sides have a lot to gain by saying there's a trade deal. They've already kind of told us there's a trade deal, I think. Now, President Trump and his team are not afraid to talk tough and to stir up a little bit more acrimony again. But I think right now the census, Besant and Crewe, have found places that both sides can compromise and get something out of this deal.

10:43I think that even if there isn't a deal and they say there is no deal and they start talking tough exactly what you're saying, And even if they really believe it, the market won't believe. The market won't believe that there is no possibility for a China trade deal. So I don't think the effect, if that were to be the case, and I don't think it would be the case, I think kick the can is more likely than I don't think there's that much downside. It was a pretty good game growing up, by the way. You guys played kick the can? You actually played kick the can? That's just an expression. No, we didn't play that game because we needed to collect the cans to trade in for nickels and stuff.

11:15Somebody stole the can. My milk money. And Skarnesdale, they played it because it was funny for them. Where I grew up. Anyway. All right, buddy. For more on what is at stake for investors this week, let's bring in Stuart Kaiser, City's Head of Equity Trading Strategy. Stuart, great to have you with us. How are we setting up into what could be, I don't know, a week full of tape bombs, basically? Yeah, I mean, I think I'd probably borrow a little bit from everybody around the table, but I think big picture unemployment rate is singularly, I think, the biggest risk to the equity markets. This week, I think it's probably large cap tech earnings because the bar is set pretty high for those, given the valuation, the performance, the concentration, the positioning.

11:49If you were to get any sort of negative talk about earnings guidance or capex guidance, I think you could see a lot of pressure there. So for this week, that'll be the number one focus. But big picture, the unemployment rate for us has probably been the single most important data point we're getting all year, I think. And I think that continues. All right, Stu, it's kind of hard to come up with a reason why the market might sell off a little bit, even like a little back and fill or something like that. You talk to a lot of really smart institutions. What are they saying? What's the bear case? And are they still kind of stuck in this sort of pain trade where they haven't totally bought back in?

12:18Yeah, I do think there is a little bit of that we're not fully in just because I get too many questions on S &P up 35 basis point days of why is it rallying? And I think when people are asking about small rallies, it reflects that. In terms of concerns, look, the biggest hedging flows we've seen have been much more in the credit and rate space. So I do think long end of the yield curve, any disruption in credit spreads are probably the two things from a market's perspective that could kind of throw us off balance. of, as I mentioned, tactically here, it's earnings and big pictures on employment rate.

12:44But the flows we are seeing is definitely on the credit side of the ledger. So what is the best labor number for the market? Right. Weighing what the Fed might do. What's what's the best case? I think, frankly, a repeat of last month would be great. Right. About 150K jobs on employment stays at 4.1 percent. The Fed, I think, is willing to cut into that environment as long as inflation cooperates. And I have a lot of questions, especially from bond investors. Why does the equity market keep rallying? And my response is you've got a 4.1 percent unemployment rate. Inflation's fairly friendly. And we're debating how many times the Fed is going to cut later this year.

13:19It's actually a really good macro environment. So I think anything 100K and above is fine. I think you would need a really big miss on the labor data to really send the market notably lower. So something I think you need to be below 75 or 50K to really get people's attention to the downside. Stuart, longest stretch without a 1 % move 23 days since the fall of last year. Meaningless or just setting up for the inevitable? I mean, it matters because I think what it's telling you is, you know, the market is rallying in low velocity way. And we do have a lot of demand, you know, underneath the surface.

13:52We're going to buy back something like 1.2 trillion of stock this year. It's a lot of money coming into the market. Vol target funds, systematic buyers are supporting the market. So I think what you're seeing there is a good macro conditions, underlying demand for U.S. equities, and that is just compressed vol straight out. Does it increase risk reward? Yes. And as does valuation, as does positioning. We're paying a lot of attention to that. The only thing I would say is if you look at the VIX, the VIX is low at the front of the curve, but the VIX has a term structure and that term structure is still quite high.

14:21So the market is telling you there are kind of landmines out there over the course of the next three months that they're paying attention to. And if you're able to squeeze that risk premium out further, it is even more incrementally positive for markets. Stuart, we're covering a lot of ground with you, which is why it's great to have you here. So let's go back to semis and let's go back to capex spending. And to me, that's the part of the equity market that has had relief in the last quarter. Suddenly, deep seek doesn't really matter anymore. Everybody's spending away. Is that the consensus of your analyst team as well?

14:48And is there anything within there that's either counter to the trend and the view? You know, I think it's steady as she goes at this point. When you look at, you know, whether it's AI power or just the AI stocks, they're rallying materially. I think on the analog semi side, we've gotten a little bit better commentary from management. And that's really helped. That analog semi was a really under-owned part of the market. And I think we've started to see that correct. So, look, I don't really see any dents right now in that trade. Marketing internationally, I'm surprised that a lot of international investors feel underweight the AI trade and underweight U.S.

15:19And, look, you can't own AI without owning U.S. stocks. So, essentially, I think that's another sort of source. It may be incremental demand. So, you know, steady as she goes for now. Stuart, great to see you. Thank you. Stuart Kaiser. All right. Meantime, we've got a news alert on Serepta. Shares are halted after hours. The FDA just releasing an update on the Alevitas gene therapy drug. Angelica Peebles has got the details on this one. Angelica, has the stock started trading or no? Melissa, it's still halted as far as I know. But the big news here is that the FDA has recommended that Serepta can go ahead and resume shipments of that gene therapy, Elevitus, for patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy who can still walk.

15:57And remember, that's an important distinction because there's two groups here. There's the younger patients who can still walk and then older patients who can no longer walk as that disease progresses. And Sarepta quickly putting out a statement saying that they will resume shipments of that gene therapy. And remember, it was only 10 days ago that we even got here that the FDA said that they wanted to see this drug come off the market, at least temporarily. And we've seen quite a bit of pushback on that FDA decision. And then Friday, we saw the heat again increase when the FDA said that they were investigating a case of an eight-year-old who died after receiving that gene therapy.

16:34But tonight, the FDA is saying that it has determined that that death was not directly caused by Levitas and Brazilian regulators where that death did occur. they said that their investigation concluded that it was caused by influenza and exasperated by immunosuppression. And you get immunosuppression when you get this gene therapy. It kind of helps prevent some of those negative side effects that you can get when you get any sort of gene therapy. And so there's been so much back and forth here. But obviously, this is good for Sarepta, and they can go ahead and bring that drug back to market, Melissa.

17:07At least they can sell it to this demographic, Angelica. The deaths that were reported before in association with this treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, those deaths were in non-ambulatory patients, correct? So they were farther along in the disease progression. Is there a commercial path now? I mean, is this enough, do analysts think, for Sarepta to remain afloat if they are able to sell to this smaller subset of the population? There are still some questions about that, but Sarepta has said that they think that just the ambulatory patient population alone could help Elevitus do about$500 million in sales every year.

17:46And, you know, they already took some steps to restructure the company, reduce their spending. Of course, they laid off about a third of their staff. There are still questions on whether that will be enough because they have, you know, these debt, these covenants that are coming up in 2027. They owe money there and they also have this revolver that they need to make sure that they continue to access. But I do think that at least having this product to sell on the market, you know, helps alleviate a little bit of that worry and it makes it a little less pressing that you might still see some more.

18:16But at least they have a path forward and it's not as life or death as it was just last week when they couldn't sell anything. Right. Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. Again, the stock halted in the after our session. We're awaiting that trade. But the stock during the regular session was up strongly on big volume. If somebody knew something, two times number one. Number two, think about this for a second. We saw a zero-dollar price target, I think, last week. We discussed it. The range for analysts in the stock are zero on the one side, 185 on the higher end of things. I think the average price target is still probably in the mid-20s to high-20s.

18:51This is relief rally written all over it. And people that have shorted the stock thinking it's going to zero. Citi initiated with a sell. J.P. Morgan a sell. there's going to be some pain to the upside in this for the next couple of days. I mean, this is an options trade, right? I mean, right down. It's a$1.2 billion market cap. Can we go back to China for a second? Because, you know, we're talking about trades. You just asked, like, what does it mean if you kick the can down the road? Right now we have a 30 % tariff on China. Let's just be really clear about that. And we just did a deal with the EU.

19:20Supposedly it's 15%. And to your point, Tim, you started off the show talking about something has really changed here. If they kick the can down the road, think about what happened in 2018. We had just put tariffs on China. We had a market that was going higher into rate hikes. We had a VIX that was literally below the teens. It was trading at like 12. People couldn't come up with a reason why the stock market should sell up. All of a sudden, then we get some global growth fears. And the stock market started selling off October, November. It was down 20 % into Christmas. And I think that's a really good kind of framework to think about what could go wrong right here.

19:56because if all these tariffs are going to start weighing on global growth, I mean, I don't know if you guys read the headlines today. And almost every major financial publication is like it wasn't as bad as it could be. That was the EU thing. 15 percent is a lot more than two and a half percent is what we had last six times. We knew that it was going to be more than two and a half percent. I mean, we didn't know it was going to be 15. I mean, so and 30 percent stays on China for a long time. China's economy is very weak right now. And this back and forth is about rare earth materials and high end GPUs or slightly lower end GPUs.

20:27That's what's going on here. So I don't know. I feel like this is something that it's going to come into greater light over the next few weeks because I don't think any of these other deals. And you said it yourself, Mel. You can walk away from the table and say that's a deal. They're frameworks. Japan's a framework. This EU thing's a framework. The UK thing's a joke. You know, we don't have Canada. We don't have Mexico yet. So I just think it's not done. And you can say, well, we have a parameter. That's fine. But if it starts weighing on global growth, then you're going to have a problem here, especially if we have weakening growth here in the U.S.

20:57We have inflation that's sticky. We have a weakening jump. Are we setting up for a sell-off? Is that what you're predicting? Because that's what it sounds like. No one can predict it right now. Listen, I thought at like 6 ,000 in the S &P 500, that was a good place for a sell-off. So I'm not, you know, at 6 ,400 here, I'm not the guy to ask. I'm just kind of laying out what I think could happen. All right. Coming up, a call on Kix, why Wall Street is bullish on Nike's recent swoosh where the analysts see the stock heading from here, plus a drag on the Dow and shareholders, how UnitedHealth is taking a major bite out of the index this year, and what to expect from the insurance giant's earnings report tomorrow.

21:31Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

21:41Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Nike jumping nearly 5 % at the highs of the day after J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock to overweight. Analysts raising their EPS estimates, citing better inventory to sales alignment, improving wholesale orders and better operating margins. The firm also upping its price target to$93 from 64. That's about 17 percent upside from today's close. Tim, do you like this call? I do like this call, and I think other people are out there. We had that conversation with Jeffries about a month ago. Remember, their fiscal 4Q numbers were important because they talked about that inventory correction.