A Sign Of Market Euphoria?... And Opportunity In Metals 6/3/26

3 Jun 2026 · 46 min · 18 chapters

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In short

Fast Money episode (6/3/26) focuses on market “euphoria” and how it’s showing up in IPOs, derivatives, and AI/consumer stocks. It opens with SpaceX’s amended IPO prospectus: fixed $135/share price, ~$1.8T valuation, ~4% float, and a strategy targeting 30% of shares to retail via JPMorgan’s 90-location broadcast event with executives (Jamie Dimon, Mary Erdos, Marianne Lake, Gwen Shotwell, CFO).

Key claims

the tiny float and fixed pricing could manufacture a “pop,” and the structure may redefine IPO allocation; retail participation may be less straightforward than it appears due to structured products and lockups.

Guests

  1. Terry Duffy (CME Group CEO/chairman): argues CFTC-approved “perpetual futures” are not true futures (swap-like), lack cash/futures convergence, rely on funding rates that can impair hedging, and could create excessive leverage risk for retail.
  2. Brian Pace Praga (Metals Royalty Company co-chairman/CEO): says data-center buildout and government support are reviving mining; his firm finances strategic metals via royalty/streaming and mezzanine-like capital (e.g., $132M deal; $10B XM Bank commitment; pipeline $3–5B), aiming to outperform commodity cycles.

Notable examples

Broadcom shares drop ~12.5% on weaker AI guidance; credit card stocks (Visa/Mastercard/AmEx) slide amid signs of consumer stress; Meta rises on an enterprise AI agent; metals are mixed as Iran-war-related moves hit precious metals while copper/aluminum benefit from data-center demand.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

SpaceX IPO: Breaking All the Rules

1:50 to 4:48

Discussing the details of SpaceX's IPO and its implications for the market.

“details on what is expected to be a blockbuster IPO.”

Retail Investor Dynamics in IPOs

4:50 to 6:44

Analyzing the unique approach to retail involvement in SpaceX's IPO.

“There are all these different conditions in which they would release more before that 180 days.”

The Risks for Retail Investors

6:48 to 10:40

Examining the potential dangers for retail investors in the current market.

“What it looks like they're trying to do, and it's smart, by the way, is incorporate what the pop might be after the pricing of an IPO.”

The Future of Market Dynamics

10:44 to 14:00

Exploring how current trends and innovations might redefine market practices.

“But nothing regarding the AI trade is really at this point.”

The Future of Futures Contracts

14:00 to 17:46

Explore the ongoing debate regarding the validity and impact of perpetual futures contracts in trading.

“Thirdly, and I think this is really important, There's no convergence between cash and futures.”

Risk Management and Market Credibility

17:46 to 24:10

Understand the importance of credible markets and risk management tools for consumers and the economy.

“They have their own market makers at Calci.”

Risk Management and Market Credibility

28:06 to 28:49

Understand the importance of credible markets and risk management tools for consumers and the economy.

“but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.”

Market Reaction to Broadcom's Earnings Alert

28:52 to 29:11

Discussion on Broadcom's weak AI revenue guidance and its impact on shares.

“To realize the future America needs, we understand what's needed from us.”

Analyzing Broadcom's Earnings Call Insights

29:11 to 30:53

Detailed analysis of earnings call insights and share price reactions.

“We've got an earnings alert on Broadcom.”

Market Sentiment and Consumer Health Indicators

30:53 to 33:11

Exploring market sentiments and their implications for consumer health.

“13 % I think up over the last couple of sessions.”
Show all 18 chapters

Credit Card Companies Under Pressure

33:11 to 35:35

Discussion on the performance of major credit card companies and implications for the consumer.

“So now we might be into this thing where the same news makes things go down again and again and again.”

American Eagle Outfitters' SEC Filing Update

35:35 to 36:28

Report on American Eagle's SEC filing related to tariff refunds.

“Speaking of the consumer, we've got a news alert on American Eagle Outfitters.”

Opportunities in the Metals Market

37:29 to 42:01

Interview with Brian Pace Braga on current trends and opportunities in the metals sector.

“The future we must secure together for our nation.”

Exploring Strategic Metals and Their Investment Potential

42:01 to 42:42

Learn about the unique investment opportunities in strategic metals and how royalty companies outperform miners.

“that's building a portfolio of assets of iron ore, nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese.”

Meta's Market Moves and AI Innovations

42:42 to 43:52

Discover how Meta is positioning itself in the AI market and the implications for its stock performance.

“We don't talk about streamers or royalty companies too often.”

Analyzing Meta's Financial Challenges and Opportunities

43:53 to 46:39

Understand the financial landscape for Meta, including analyst opinions and market challenges it faces.

“Shares of Meta jumping more than 4 % today.”

The Impact of SpaceX's IPO on AT&T

46:40 to 48:19

Examine how SpaceX's potential IPO could affect AT&T and the broader telecom industry.

“By the way, we just did some back of the envelope math on the SpaceX filing.”

Final Trades and Market Recap

48:20 to 49:20

Catch the last trades, market insights, and personal anecdotes from the hosts.

“I mean, oh, that's just it is really a staggering amount of money.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Terry Duffy:Say you always wanted to have a backyard oasis. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can go out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money? Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers today at Empower.com. Not an Empower client paid or sponsored. Never bet against American grit or American energy.

0:35Terry Duffy:Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

1:02Fast Money Team:Live from the Nasdaq market, tight in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. An IPO that's breaking all the rules, the latest details on SpaceX's monster offering and what it says about the buildup of euphoria in the market right now. We'll talk to CME CEO Terry Duffy about that, perpetual futures contracts, and a whole lot more. And a Broadcom bummer, the chipmaker dropping from all-time highs after its latest earnings report. We are digging into the numbers, bringing you all the trades. Plus, what is wrong with the credit card stocks? Meta moves higher in its latest AI agent news and constructing gains.

1:36Fast Money Team:United Rentals, just one of the industrial gains, hitting records today. What's behind this move? How do you trade these stocks right now? I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with new details on what is expected to be a blockbuster IPO. SpaceX just filing its amended IPO prospectus minutes ago. And as you might expect from Elon Musk, it's breaking all the rules. The company is setting a fixed initial offering price of$135 a share. That puts SpaceX's valuation at nearly $1.8 trillion, would make it the seventh most valuable company in the United States.

2:13Fast Money Team:Leslie Picker's got the details. She's been pouring through this document. Leslie.

2:16Terry Duffy:Hey, Mel, that's right. So given those numbers you just outlined, we're looking at a float of about 4 % for this deal. Why is that important? Well, it affects the supply demand dynamic relative to the market cap. So the tinier the float, oftentimes you can maybe orchestrate more of a pop, potentially depending on the demand dynamic. Now, that is often orchestrated when you do have a price range, where you're able to say, OK, we feel like we have a lot of demand at this certain price. We're going to price it here. And then, you know, hopefully we'll be able to see some sort of pop on day one. And to your point, Melissa, they're doing things a bit differently.

2:52Terry Duffy:There is no price range. There is one singular fixed price that they plan to use to market this IPO to investors. Now, a critical piece of this deal that's also unique is the retail component, the 30 percent that will be targeted to retail. I'm told that they're doing some unique and interesting things as it pertains to the retail dynamic here. Particularly, they are one of the key underwriters. J.P. Morgan will be hosting an event tomorrow night at their headquarters, 270 Park, where they're going to broadcast live to about 90 of their locations across 26 states. These encompass private bank centers, certain Chase branches, the financial centers as well.

3:37Terry Duffy:And there will be a sit down with Jamie Dimon, as well as Mary Erdos, who runs the Asset and Wealth Management Division, and Marianne Lake, who runs their consumer business, community and consumer business there, as well as the SpaceX president, Gwen Shotwell, and the CFO. It's still undetermined whether or not Elon Musk will be attending. I'm told this is invitation only, expecting about 2 ,000 people to attend that. But this event, I think, underscores just the uniqueness and the creativity involved in really reaching out to retail in a big way for about, say,$25 billion worth of this deal.

4:16Fast Money Team:And we should point out, too, that current shareholders, including Elon Musk, they are going to hold their shares for 366 days. So it's not like retail is going to be offered this allotment and then everybody else is going to leave. It's like, no, they are invested along with the retail investor.

4:34Terry Duffy:Elon is, but there is kind of a unique lockup component where they do have a stair-step lockup. Typical would be pre-IPO investors are locked up for about 180 days. We will see more lockups released before then, particularly after the first earnings report, if the stock goes above 3%. There are all these different conditions in which they would release more before that 180 days. So that will kind of mirror potential index inclusion. And as that market cap gets bigger because the float gets bigger because more shares, you know, become unlocked, essentially. Hey, Leslie, it's Tim. Thanks for breaking all this news.

5:12Terry Duffy:And I guess the retail side of it is fascinating. There's a lot of reasons why traditionally IPO didn't go straight to retail. A lot of it's just hard to kind of get to retail. It's so fragmented. How are they doing this? When you say 30 percent to retail, what does that mean? Yeah, so that's kind of what I was outlining with regard to this event at J.P. Morgan, is they're using 90 different locations across the country to reach out to their high net worth individuals and kind of communicate straight from the executives in this event, in this broadcast, how they plan to market this deal and why they think it is worth buying.

5:44Terry Duffy:I'm also told that, you know, other underwriters are conducting kind of similar things. But it's very unique in terms of strategy to reach this much retail. But Elon Musk, of course, has a track record as it pertains to retail. Retail is comprised a large proportion of Tesla. He has a large social media following, for example, of loyal followers. And retail is seen as more price insensitive. But it is, to your point, Tim, more difficult to control. With institutional investors, they put in larger orders. You kind of get a sense in talking to them whether or not they plan to flip it or not. With retail, it's so fragmented and so disparate.

6:22Terry Duffy:You don't know what they do once they receive that allocation.

6:26Fast Money Team:All right. Leslie, thank you. If you see anything else, flag it to us. Leslie Picker. I'm just curious what you make of all this, Dan. How unusual this is and just, you know, what this symbolizes in the market right now.

6:39Terry Duffy:Well, I don't think it's great for the bankers, too. Leslie didn't mention that he's putting pressure on the fees, right? That normally he would say 5%, 6 % or something like that, and he's putting a lot of pressure. I think there's like three dozen or so banks that are on this, and that's going to be important for the allocation to retail, right? They need that sort of distribution. I think what's different here as far as retail and what they should really be careful about is that this is going to come, the nature in which they are pricing it, it's going to come at a much higher price than normally if you priced it, you get that allocation on the price, then you get the pop.

7:09Terry Duffy:What it looks like they're trying to do, and it's smart, by the way, is incorporate what the pop might be after the pricing of an IPO. Right. Because the company does not benefit from that. If they price it, let's say, on five o 'clock the night before at one hundred dollars and it ends up opening at one hundred eighty dollars. Right. They don't benefit from that. Right. So they benefit from the demand of the people buying it. And I think those are really important things. And that might redefine how IPOs are done. And it makes the company a lot more open to doing those processes that way. But it's not always great, I guess, for the bank.

7:41Terry Duffy:Well, it makes the banker's job almost irrelevant. You know, I mean, and the whole thing is bankers are supposed to price things right. And pricing it right means you want to have a little juice on the IPO. Yeah, I think a 40 to 50 percent juice looks like failure, but it depends on the deal. But but right. I mean, what you're talking about, Dan, almost is secondary market. It's like you're buying an IPO on the secondary market, which isn't an IPO. So and and, you know, I have a wealth management business and, you know, just trying to find out from some of the major platforms like, hey, how do you get allocation to SpaceX?

8:11Terry Duffy:I hear it's all for retail. It's like, well, not really. And then there's a ton of products out there that are structured products that allow retail to own a structured node, which isn't really owning the company. And by the way, there's tons of fees in that. So be careful with that. I think there's I think this is less obvious how retail is going to participate. It's kind of why I had that question for Leslie, because it's such a cool idea. It seems like you're democratizing. This is Elon, right? I mean, he's been very good to retail. He's been very good to the people that have been loyal shareholders.

8:38Terry Duffy:But I'm just not sure how you carry this out. And this is democracy at its finest. This is the biggest IPO of all time. With the two biggest banks in the world that have made the most money and are the ones everybody wants that are the best at this. I just can't believe there's any charity here.

8:54Fast Money Team:I feel like the notion of retail investor, we associate that with Robinhood. and when it went public, it had a retail investor allocation, and that was true retail investor. This is the traditional retail investor that had always gotten the allocation from IPOs, which are the high net worth individuals that are clients of the underwriters. I mean, that's the way it traditionally has been. So this is sort of going back to that. But how they're marketing it, I mean, for Elon Musk, for Glenn, potentially Glenn Shotwell, to be talking directly to some of these wealth advisors in order for them to talk to clients, I mean, that's really interesting.

9:28Terry Duffy:It is really. Well, I mean, I guess it's a more efficient way to do the roadshow. Right. But so that is generally similar to me, though. It comes to a question of valuation like anything else. Right. And it's even though it's a small part of the overall float, it is 75 or billion dollars. So that is, you know, that's a big liquid pool of shares. But I think that the valuation is, I don't know, is as you can imagine, aggressive. Yeah. Right. So I don't know. I'm interested to learn more about it. But I think that it's Elon. He gets away with some stuff, good and bad, I think, that other that other companies would not.

10:08Terry Duffy:You know, the lack of oversight by anyone, really. The board, I think, would have really no oversight whatsoever. But I think also, I mean, he's Elon. He's created these businesses out of nowhere. They're extraordinary. The AI part is the biggest and the most important and the most expensive right now. And they are out front. And they're out front. They are out front at a time of all we're hearing about. Yes, they're out front. And, you know, I'm sure Anthropik will watch this as close. Anyone else? And OpenAI, yeah. Yes, and OpenAI as well. It'll be fascinating for sure. I don't think it'll fall on the value.

10:47Terry Duffy:Right.

10:48Fast Money Team:No, I'm sure it won't. But nothing regarding the AI trade is really at this point. So what does this symbolize? about what does this say about where we are in the markets right now?

10:58Terry Duffy:I'll go quick because our guest is far more insightful than I am, which is not a high bar. But I'll say quickly, you know, you wonder if there's just been, listen, everything is gamified these days. And what's the gamification going into this understanding the fast track inclusion that SpaceX is going to get? Have there been people sort of gaming the cues in the Nasdaq 100 ahead of this understanding what the inevitable buying is going to be? So I think that's part of it. And it's a markets conversation we'll have a little bit later.

11:23Fast Money Team:All right. Right now, in fact, CME Group chairman and CEO is sounding the alarm on the dangers to retail investors right now. Terry Duffy joins us here on set for a CNBC exclusive. He, by the way, is perhaps one of the biggest Fast Money fans out there. So it's a true honor to have you here on set, Terry. When you say dangers to the retail investors, what are you talking about at this point?

11:42Terry Duffy:Well, you know, Melissa, first of all, thank you very much for allowing me to come on the show today and just kind of maybe clear the air a little bit about what the CFTC actually did, what they approved and what this product actually is. I think there's a tremendous amount of misinformation. I watched your show. I've watched other shows on the network to see what people are talking about. So let's talk a little bit about what they approved. So the Commodity Exchange Act, which was voted on in 2000, defines a futures contract as a contract with a future expiration or delivery time period. It does not define it as a contract that goes on in perpetuity.

12:17Terry Duffy:So right away, they approve something that's against what Congress voted on in 2000. So I think that's a huge issue that the government want to fall on. And I'm following up on that too. They did what's called a 40 dot three approval. And on a 40 dot three approval, that means it's a full review. What you get 45 days for the industry to comment on that particular process. What they did, they approved it in two and a half hours and did not do a 45 day review. So it gave people like myself and others no chance to participate in the process. What's strange about that in their own order, they put in there that this is novel and complex.

13:00Terry Duffy:So if something is novel and complex, you would think you'd give it to the industry and let us all take a look at it. Did not do so. Perpetuals. What are they? There is a funding rate tied to perpetuals to keep it tied to the spot. And how that funding rate works is if, in fact, you're long a product and I'm short a product and the product's going up. We'll use a great example because of the Iran war. If you're an airline and you hedged your oil exposure and you did it on a perpetual contract, which they supposedly just approved, and the market went straight up, which it did from$50 a barrel to$100 and whatever dollars a barrel, you would have been paying a cost to the short side of the market and you would not have gotten your full hedge.

13:48Terry Duffy:So if you thought you were a hedge for a dollar, they might have given you only 80 cents back because you're burning it in fees to pay the short side of the market. That's how they keep it tied to spot. So it's not a future. And so the institutions have a very difficult time with that type of instrument. Thirdly, and I think this is really important, There's no convergence between cash and futures. So whether you're an agribusiness or an energy producer or any of these, there's no convergence of delivery. That is really the check of a futures contract to give the credibility of the pricing to it.

14:19Terry Duffy:It's just based on this funding rate. Then they talk about crypto, which is the best. When I listed crypto in 2017, I got chastised by all the crypto participants for not listing a physically delivered crypto product. because that's the most credible product in the world. Now they're all saying a perpetual is more credible, which is laughable. So you can't have it both ways, excuse me. And thirdly, retail. Retail is really the whole focus here. So the retail in the European Union today has leverage anywhere between 20 and 250 times leverage. So what does that mean? The CFTC today does not. Are they going to allow those products to come here, which they haven't said anything about yet?

15:10Terry Duffy:Are they going to allow U.S. participants to have 250 times leverage on this? Because in their own regulations that for companies like mine, we have to be in compliance with the CFTC to have 99 percent coverage per product. 250 actually doesn't work. So let's cite that in real terms for your viewers. Bitcoin at CME. Largest open interest of institutional Bitcoin at CME. My leverage on CME Bitcoin, 5x. My leverage on oil, 10 times. These are up to 250 times. That goes to follow the own CFTC's regulations. They have not explained that to the industry, and they did not give us any chance to participate in this process.

15:54Terry Duffy:So I just wanted to set the record straight. People think that everybody's going to run through these products. Are you going to bring those rules that are going on in the European Union today to the United States and allow that? If so, you're going to follow your own regs of the government.

16:10Fast Money Team:I just want to take a pause here, Terry, because we did speak to the CFTC. They gave us this statement. The agency has long analyzed the issue of perpetual contracts in U.S. derivative markets. The CFTC's mission is to promote responsible innovation and fair competition, and the commission will not hinder lawful innovation as we understand it, too. They sought a comment from the industry back in April of 2025, and the CME actually provided perspective on this. And that was, you know, a while ago. So I didn't want to put that out there. But I'm going to take the other side because you were able to explain your side of it for a while.

16:44Fast Money Team:Some might say, you know, exchanges like yours, you're afraid of this being a competitor product. I mean, that's what we saw in the stock market. I mean, your stock was under pressure because of the concern that this would draw volume away from other products that you've launched recently that are very popular, like zero DTE options, for instance. What do you say to that? I mean, do you think that this will be an impact?

17:06Terry Duffy:Here, about the impact is hard for me to say. But if you think this is a self-dealing thing or a complaint that CME doesn't want this type of competition, I've spent 30 years of my career bringing credible markets to the United States and growing them exponentially. And we have done that. All of us have done that collectively together. We are going backwards now. We are creating regulatory framework for leverage. This is 2007 for retail. So think of 2007 for homes. This is 2007 for retail. They have so many products that they're going to have leverage to. The auto liquidation process that works with perpetuals that could trip over and then cause cascading effect going down exponentially.

17:47Terry Duffy:They have their own market makers at Calci. This is not too dissimilar than when I called Sam Bankman-Fried a criminal. I went through the process of testifying with Sam, saying that his model could be very disruptive to the financial system. This is no different. This is absolutely no different. So it's not self-dealing. I don't want casinos in exchanges. I want to have products that people need to trade. The question is because a perpetual does not expire, makes it more valuable is ridiculous. It does not lend to the credibility of pricing. I clearly outlined how Perpetual works. It works by a funding rate, which ties it to spot, which means you cannot forward hedge that product with any credibility of a future data delivery or cash settlement process.

18:34Terry Duffy:So it's not a credible product. It's a leverage product. That's all it is. These are sounds, and first of all, full disclosure, Terry's been a friend for many decades. And you know my view, and you have talked about it on the show. I think is one of the great CEOs in the country. And with that said, I mean, you've had competition like this come around many times over the decades you've been at CME. You welcome that competition, but you also realize that you're in a position. So explain to the folks at home the difference between products that help people hedge risk and these products, because your products are actually helping the farmers and the bankers and all those things hedge the risks that they find in their day to day business.

19:13Terry Duffy:So I always say, Guy, that whether you trade CME or not, it's critically important these products are out there. The great late Milton Friedman said to me before he passed away, he said, Terry, if we did not have futures contracts, we would need to invent them to move forward. That's a pretty powerful statement by one of the smartest men ever that graced the earth. And what I think is important, Guy, is these products for farmers, for energy, for interest rates, if you don't use them, your mortgage is dependent on it, your gas price, your gasoline is dependent on it. And if, in fact, you don't have risk management tools, then the cost gets passed down to the consumer.

19:46Terry Duffy:The U.S. debt is a great way to look at it. We have$39 trillion of debt. We have a$28 trillion GDP. You don't need to be a math wizard to see where this is going. So in order for us to continue to sell debt, we need to place a forward market to lay off that risk. You cannot lay off risk in the cash market in the forward treasury. In the treasury market, it's not a forward market. So that's why it's important, because your mortgage is depending on it and your credit card bills are depending on it. All this is a part of that 10-year curve. So you need to have futures markets, whether you participate in it or not, in order to run your life more efficiently.

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20:21Fast Money Team:There might be an argument out there that says, you know, if you're a retail investor and you want to use perpetual futures, that's on you. That's your decision. But it sounds like you're saying that there's actually a ripple effect, potentially negative effect, that goes well beyond that one trader that decided to engage and use perpetual futures. What is that risk to the markets?

20:43Terry Duffy:There's multiple risks. But here, think of it this way. The way perpetuals are set up, they incite bad behavior. Why? Because of the way the funding rate works. So if you're short a market and I'm long in the market, I'm right, I still have to pay you even though you're wrong. So that could incent you to trade even more because you know if it goes against you, I have to fund your bad position. That is not a pure markets. You know, I know Tara tried to come on and say that these are the purest way of doing the future. The CEO of Calci. The CEO of Calci. This is the most impure way to participate in a market.

21:15Terry Duffy:So I just think that is the argument, Melissa. They're very cumbersome. Terry, you mentioned in 2017, you know, Bitcoin was a mania when you guys listed the futures. And I have to assume for all intents and purposes, that was a good hedging vehicle. You guys now have micro Bitcoin futures trade 24 seven. Help me understand why a perpetual is more interesting than being trading a micro 24 seven on a highly regulated platform that's been around for 100 years. Why are perpetuals more, you said, exciting than a 24 seven? Yeah, I'm hard pressed to. First of all, other than it doesn't have. First of all, what's really important, it's not a futures contract.

21:53Terry Duffy:It's a swap. So let's just call it what it is, because anything the law clearly states under the Commodity Exchange Act that a future has to be considered for future delivery or future expiration. It never says it could be perpetual. So it's against the law as a futures contract for starters. How 24 seven works is pre funded on a Friday because the banking system is not there. So we pre funded and we treat it just like we do any other holiday. These markets go around the clock 24 hours a day, seven days a week, illiquid, and they have what's called an auto liquidator. So if, in fact, you have highly leveraged products, the more you have on, the more leverage you take on, the smaller percent move you need to get blown out of that market.

22:36Terry Duffy:And if you take you out, Guy out, Melissa out, we were right on the table. Next thing you know, we're at a massively different price than what maybe the real market should truly be at. So that's where I think the problem is.

22:46Fast Money Team:We're out of time, Terry. It's a very important topic. I'm just, you know, you've been on the show many times, but this seems like a topic. I've not seen you like this about any other topic before. In your view, how urgent is this and what are the next steps that you can take now that they've already approved this?

23:04Terry Duffy:So I want to be careful what to say what I'm going to do or not do. But I assure you I'm doing certain things because I think it's really important. I said to you earlier, I don't run a casino and I've worked my whole career to show how important these products are to the consumer, whether they use them or not. I want to make sure we still have that. I do not want to have the retail public get destroyed after we've been spending years trying to build them up, educate them on these marketplaces and to participate. It's really important, Melissa, for people to have the ability to participate in markets.

23:35Terry Duffy:But if, in fact, they get sucked into something that they're unaware of and get hurt, that to me is not a good outcome for them. So, yes, I'm very passionate about this. And I wouldn't say I'm worked up because you should see me when I get worked up.

23:47Fast Money Team:I don't want to see that actually.

23:48Terry Duffy:out. I'm focused, Melissa, is what I could say. I am very focused on this, and I think it's critically important to the future of markets that they stand credible. I won't even get into the prediction markets and everything else. Markets need to be credible, and when they're not, you want to become a third world country? Have no credible marketplaces, because that, to me, is what protects our national security, is to have a good, strong marketplace.

24:14Fast Money Team:Terry, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for having me, Melissa. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. CME. A quick note here, CNBC and Calci do have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. What do you think of these products?

24:26Terry Duffy:Well, what Terry is saying is that definitionally these aren't futures contracts. And so we know that crypto investors for years have traded in these offshore structures. And I think the most powerful point Terry made here is that our markets are founded on depth, transparency, compliance and regulation. And so if investors want to go offshore and trade in offshore contracts, they've had the ability to do that. By the way, a little bit of leverage can be like cancer. And so the point is that I think this is part of what it is about protecting consumers, because it really is something. Look at the volatility you have in Bitcoin.

25:04Terry Duffy:I mean, the fact that we're kind of starting in arguably the most volatile asset class and not putting the kind of leverage, you know, overrides on some of this is kind of strange if you think about it. Bitcoin is as volatile of an asset class as we have ever seen.

25:20Fast Money Team:And yet this is where perps have started. I mean, but this is where we are in the markets. I mean, with the rise of prediction markets and gambling and everything at the click away and zero day options can may fall into this category, maybe not. And now we have perpetual future. I mean, this is sort of this path has been paved. It's not a good ending. Right.

25:40Terry Duffy:Right. And leverage, leverage in the end is always what

25:43Fast Money Team:kills.

25:44Terry Duffy:Right. So it'll be interesting. I mean, it sounds like one can see this blowing up. Well, the auto liquidate that Terry makes the point is like we've seen these moves over the weekend in really, really like light markets. And you'll see, you know, Bitcoin, wherever the, you know, drop 2000 or 3000, whatever it is. And people get blown out. And then it's back up once the volume comes back into it. It just doesn't seem to be a great place for retail in particular, especially if you're using leverage that you've never experienced before. Because here in the States, it's really hard to get more than five times or so.

26:15Fast Money Team:Oh, yeah. All right. We do have some breaking news here out of D.C. Emily Wilkins got the details here. Emily.

26:22Terry Duffy:Hey, Melissa. Well, the House has just adopted a resolution that would limit Donald Trump's powers when it comes to further strikes and military action in Iran. The House has now adopted this War Powers Act 215 to 208 for Republicans now joining with Democrats to give them enough to advance this piece of legislation. And we should know this is the fourth time that the House has done a vote on this. And it shows that slowly shifting Republican sentiment away from President Trump and towards some of the concerns that we've started to see about the Iran war. Now, if you remember two weeks ago, the Senate held a bit of a similar vote.

26:58Terry Duffy:It was on a slightly different bill. So now this House bill would go to the Senate. And depending on if we can see some of the momentum that we've seen previously with the Senate, with more and more Republicans joining Democrats to check President Trump's power on Iran, there is a chance that we could actually see this wind up passing both chambers. But of course, a bit of a ways to go on that, but certainly a marker here in the House today that enough Republicans joined with Democrats to try to put a check on what President Trump can do in Iran. Melissa?

27:30Fast Money Team:Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins in Washington. Coming up, we're watching Shares of Broadcom on the move after reporting its results, the details and the numbers from the latest quarter that is next, plus a credit card crunch. What is weighing on shares of MasterCard, Visa, and American Express, and how our traders are positioning in this group? Do not go anywhere. Fast 20s back in two.

27:51Terry Duffy:At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. that's unstoppable energy

28:22Fast Money Team:at Uber every single driver is required to pass a thorough background check before they can start driving that means any prospective driver goes through a multi-step screening process checking for any impaired driving or criminal offenses but the checks don't stop there every year every Uber driver is background checked again so the person picking you up today meets the same standards as the day they started. Hey, how's it going? Yeah, good. Annual driver screenings from Uber. One more way Uber is putting safety at every turn. Learn more at uber.com slash safety.

28:52Terry Duffy:To realize the future America needs, we understand what's needed from us. To face each threat head on. We've earned our place in the fight for our nation's future. We are Marines. We were made for this.

29:10Fast Money Team:Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got an earnings alert on Broadcom. Shares are lower by about 12.5 % after the company gave weak AI revenue guidance for the next quarter. The conference call started at the top of the hour. Christina Parsinevelis has been on that call. She's here now. Christina. Yeah, CEO Hawk Tan on the earnings call moments ago just reiterated the company's AI revenue

29:28Terry Duffy:target at$100 billion for 2027. I use the word reiterated, and that's why shares started to fall from 5 % down to about 8%. And because analysts were actually expecting him to raise that number, for example, Morgan Stanley was modeling about$120 billion in AI fiscal 2027 revenue. The CFO also saying just moments ago that gross margins are going to fall 74%. Doesn't represent a change in semi margins, but because it's a mix, what she said, of semis and infrastructure software. Now for the actual guide, Q3 revenue guide came in at a little bit over 29 billion bucks, a slight bead and AI chip revenue guided to more than 200 percent year over year in Q3.

30:08Terry Duffy:And they mentioned the 16 billion dollar number on the analyst call on the earnings call right now. They were really focused on this number coming in at 56 billion dollars for the year. Many of them were confused, wanted that number to be a little bit higher. Even Bernstein in the last hour was saying that that number came in below estimates on the street. Part of that disappointment could tie to the Anthropic deal, which started as a 10 billion dollar rack order, has been converted to chips only with near-term revenue now expected closer to$2.5 billion. Those are from estimates that I pulled prior to the call.

30:40Terry Duffy:So they haven't actually hit that anthropic conversation just yet. Stock, though, rallied roughly 13 % just over the last week heading into the print.

30:47Fast Money Team:So even this slight Q3 revenue beat and maybe reiterating that$100 billion is just not enough. Yeah. It's been on a monster tear, though.

30:56Terry Duffy:13 % I think up over the last couple of sessions. I mean, Christina did a great job. AI chip revenues now, more than half the company was up 143 percent. Free cash flows, you know, now north of$10 billion. I mean, this is a company at this level here, despite that guide, which wasn't terrible. I mean, it's valuation wise. I think it's extraordinarily reasonable. You see the other side of these big run ups. What happens if you don't say all the right things? But I think this is a complete overshoot to the downside. Yeah. So you've noted the price action. And there's extremely strong and significant barriers to entry for a lot of other people to get in the middle of this business.

31:31Terry Duffy:Also, if you think that their AI revenues in 24 or 13 billion and, you know, depending on who you're talking to on the street, they're going to be north of 200 billion by 28. The 27 guide might be light, but unless people are way, way off here, it's growing into the valuation. So I kind of agree. I mean, I again, I don't know who's going to eat their lunch right now. And I just think the market needed to take a breath.

31:54Fast Money Team:I mean, the compute names, nobody wants, I mean, I don't know. People are bored of the story. I don't know what you call it here.

32:00Terry Duffy:A couple things. You know, obviously, customer concentration has been a story with all of these companies. And, you know, it was these, you know, the specialty ones. I'm totally spacing. ASIC. Yeah. The ones who make custom silicon. Sorry, sorry. You know, that was late to the game, right? And we saw Marvell. We saw Broadcom. They started to take some share. That was one of the things I think that NVIDIA was probably going sideways for a while, you know, for the last year and a half or so. But when I think about, you know, that number and, you know, the Anthropic goes from racks to just service, I say to myself, are these guys trying to dress things up a little bit as they get into their IPOs, kind of pull back some of that spend?

32:35Terry Duffy:You know, Anthropic, you know, has obviously guided, you know, the last quarter. They suggested that they might be mildly profitable here. So if you pull back the spend, you probably have a couple of levers to make things look better into your IPO. And I think that might be sort of the thing. And then the other thing is this company is a two trillion dollar market cap company that is trading down like this. This might be the start of things, in my opinion, to anybody else who is not Google with GPUs or at least NVIDIA for now with GPUs. So it's interesting now, you know, it was a euphoria a few days ago or maybe two days ago.

33:06Terry Duffy:And now that's sort of, you know, it's I guess the weight of it is sort of falling upon itself. And Marvel, which had very good numbers, three, you know, midweek last week is down, I don't know, 18 bucks on this. So now we might be into this thing where the same news makes things go down again and again and again. That could happen given the extraordinary run up. That wouldn't be so surprising.

33:29Fast Money Team:But I do think this story is generally intact. Right. Christina, thank you. Christina Parts Nevelis. Let's get to credit card companies. American Express, Visa and MasterCard are closing in the red today. Amex seeing its worst day in over a month. It's been a rough run for these names. MasterCard today closing at its lowest level since August 2024. Or guys in watching this space skeptically, what does it say about the consumer, if anything?

33:53Terry Duffy:I think so. I mean, there's some idiosyncratic things going here with MassCard and Visa, so I want to put that out there. But it's not entirely that. And when American Express is trading in a similar way, and then you hear what you've heard from Walmart and watch some of these retailers, you start to put together a picture. I mean, MassCard made its all-time high last fall, has not been trading well since. Visa's basically the same thing. I want to lump them together. And American Express obviously takes credit risk. At some point, I think you have to start to connect the dots and sort of the health of the consumer.

34:22Terry Duffy:And that's why we sort of flagged it earlier today.

34:24Fast Money Team:Why do you think they're down? Guys, you know, throwing the mosaic out there.

34:31Terry Duffy:You're painting the pastiche. Pastiche. Pastiche. And je m 'appelle Timothée. So why wouldn't it be a pastiche? I just think you've got a case here where there are there's a lot of pain in hospitality. There's a lot of pain in discretionary. There's a lot of pain in peril. I repeat that the negative disposable income numbers we got earlier in the week, all we are hearing from the middle class and all we are hearing from the companies that serve the middle class is that these people are in a tough place. You know, the Amex customer seemingly is slightly different. That should behave differently.

35:04Terry Duffy:But the macro right now, we had ISM that was very strong today. We had Joltz yesterday. We had ADP. The macro is not telling you this story, but the market is. And we are seeing that. We have seen it now for not weeks, but probably months. Yeah, I like to keep an eye on the buy now, pay later. And they had a tough time today. They're a firm, the Klarna, and even Upstart. And I think that's probably a good place to keep your eye on as it relates to this lower end of the K. And so a lot of these stocks are saying something, to Tim's point, that the data might not be suggesting just yet.

35:35Fast Money Team:Speaking of the consumer, we've got a news alert on American Eagle Outfitters. Mackenzie Cigalos has got the details. Mac.

35:39Terry Duffy:Hey, so American Eagle Outfitters just submitted a new filing with the SEC detailing IEPA tariff refund process. They requested to get$189.8 million back in refunds. They say in the filing they have received already refunds of up to$108.3 million, so they're looking to claw back roughly another$80. This is one of the first companies who has detailed the refund process after the Supreme Court turned down the majority of President Trump's tariff agenda. Those shares relatively unchanged after hours though, Mel.

36:12Fast Money Team:All right, Mac, thanks. Mackenzie Sigalos. Coming up, a mixed bag for metals as a Middle East conflict weighs in the commodity complex, where our next guest is finding opportunity in the space when Fast Money returns.

36:28Terry Duffy:Adventure Global. We think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

36:59Terry Duffy:Modern enterprise. There's a lot of moving parts. Comcast Business helps you orchestrate it all. With SD-WAN working at scale to keep 150 hospital locations connected and working as one. Plus SASE and Zero Trust Security, protecting financial data across a bank's 2 ,000 branches. And AI-powered networking that optimizes traffic across five continents. No one does business like Comcast Business. The wrongs, we must right. The fights, we must win. The future we must secure together for our nation. This is what's in front of us. This determines what's next for all of us. We are Marines. We were made for this.

37:59Fast Money Team:Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks. Pulling back from records today, the Dow falling more than 600 points. The S &P down three quarters of a percent to the Nasdaq dropping about nine tenths of a percent. The S &P and Nasdaq both snapping nine day winning streaks. Netflix falling another two percent today. The streaming giant now on an eight day losing streak down nearly nine percent in that time, tying its longest losing streak since November 2022. And some more after hours action. Crowd strike falling despite topping earnings and revenue estimates. The company also announcing a four for one stock split, five below lower despite beating expectations.

38:31Fast Money Team:PBIH dropping on a weaker than expected outlook and C3 AI jumping after topping estimates. Meantime, precious metal prices, platinum, silver, gold have fallen double digits since the start of the year, start of the Iran war, I should say. But copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise, fueled by demand for data center buildout. Our next guest just closed a deal for an iron ore project in Minnesota. Brian Pace Braga, co-chairman and CEO of the metals royalty company joins us now. Brian, great to have you with us.

38:59Terry Duffy:Great to be with you guys.

39:00Fast Money Team:How has the data center build out changed the way you look at where you need to be at this point?

39:05Terry Duffy:I mean, it's made things topical. You know, for the first time in a long time, people are talking about the mining industry. I think humans have a tendency to worry about the downstream products first, and then they make their way upstream. And you're starting to see government support. Almost$30 billion has already gone out the door in commitments from the government. and that's stimulating private capital in an industry that has struggled for many years to deliver good returns to investors. So it's an amazing time to be in this space.

39:35Fast Money Team:So when you say worried about down, like we're all worried about chips and energy and things like that, but actually we need to think about the stuff that it takes to build the actual data center and maybe also build out the grid.

39:47Terry Duffy:It's an entire reindustrialization concept and it's something that the West has forgotten about. and China focused on it. And there was a lot of public-private partnership for the last 20, 30 years. And they're way ahead. I mean, if you look at all the metals, they're way ahead up to 99 % from China of the refining of most of the metals. And iron ore specifically is something that it's boring, but it's needed in pretty well everything you look at in this studio. So, Brian, my guess is a guy who's wearing a great looking suit like that. You're not driving a forklift. What's really unique about, maybe not unique, but what you guys are doing is really centered on kind of bringing capital, permanent capital into a space where you're investing behind it.

40:34Terry Duffy:And it's essentially, on some level, it's asset-backed. And talk about that, because I feel like, again, having invested around the resource space for a long time, there's no question there's a long cycle here. But there's also no question that there's a lot of investors that just have not invested here. Sure. So talk about how you're cordoned capital. And I know you have some anchor families that are very important. Yeah, the Hess family is Michael Hess is the co-chairman of the business. We just announced that alongside our closing. Having a family like that that have developed one of the greatest oil and gas companies this country's probably ever seen has been instrumental in our early, early success.

41:14Terry Duffy:We're in a business of deploying capital alongside public capital. So the Iron Ore project has a$10 billion commitment from XM Bank. Think of us as like a mezzanine lender in the real estate space. We're coming in the cap table. We're filling a small gap. But if you do it enough times, this last deal was$132 million. We've got a pipeline of$3 to$5 billion of projects in front of us right now. As long as we can underwrite the right projects that are important to America, we're executing on our business plan. Let's talk about that because people can understand mining companies. They mine ore, gold, silver, whatever it is.

41:49Terry Duffy:It costs them whatever. And then they can figure out what the company is worth. How can people better understand what your company is worth, given the framework of that business? We see white space. There's no publicly traded company in the United States that's building a portfolio of assets of iron ore, nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese. and our pipeline consists of many of these strategic metals, no one's doing it. And if you look at the stock charts of the mining companies relative to these royalties and streaming companies, the performance of the royalty and streaming companies far outweighs the ebbs and flows of the commodity cycles.

42:27Terry Duffy:The nice thing is a royalty, you're taking kind of the cream off the top. You get a charge on the revenue of a business. As long as the mine is in operation, we're getting paid.

42:38Fast Money Team:Brian, we've got to leave it there. Thank you so much for coming by. Nice to see you again. Brian, please, Praga. We talk about miners a lot, Tim. We don't talk about streamers or royalty companies too often.

42:47Terry Duffy:No, and I think it's fascinating because, again, you're ultimately it's about assessing the projects. It's about assessing the cash flow ability. And one of the things that investing in miners for a long time, it was investing in miners who are really inefficient with capital and didn't have operational leverage. So I love when he mentioned kind of the portfolio concept to investing around them, but actually really being specialty investors, I think that's fascinating. Yeah, we talked about national security implications, MP Materials. They did a 60 Minutes thing a couple of months ago. I think the market's coming to realize the importance, the national security importance of the metals that we don't talk about enough.

43:22Terry Duffy:And it comes in the form of, as Tim just said, all the deals they're putting together.

43:25Fast Money Team:Coming up, Meta bucking today's downtrend. The social media giant getting into an AI enterprise race with a new agent. What that could mean for the stock in the AI space when Fast Money returns.

43:52Fast Money Team:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Meta jumping more than 4 % today. The social media giant leaning into the enterprise AI market, unveiling a new AI agent that will help businesses with everyday operations. A European court also handing Meta a legal win, exempting the company's marketplace classified ad service from the EU's big tech rules. Meta is still struggling to break into positive territory for the year, down more than 5%. Morgan Stanley also had a bullish note on Meta saying, despite the spend, it can still make a lot of money, and there's some levers still there to pull. So, Karen.

44:24Terry Duffy:Yeah, there's a few analyst upgrades. I mean, the stock, as you said, has been down for the year, and when some of the other names doing, obviously, much, much better. I think that it's not expensive at 19 times earnings. It's under market multiple. However, we've talked about the spend and that it is no longer this cash hoard and no longer this free cash flow machine. I also think the the Google deal and the SpaceX deal are not particularly helpful. And then Anthropik deal behind it are not particularly helpful to Meta because they will they will need to access some kind of financing. Right. They have all along.

45:00Terry Duffy:And so to the extent that that. there's more ahead of them. It's probably not great. On a risk-reward basis, I think at this level, it's not bad. I do own it. It's a decent sized position. Sorry, go ahead, Dan. You're probably going to say something smarter than me. What do you think? You guys choose. What I was going to say is it's not going to take much on the enterprise front, other than ad targeting for investors to come back and take a look at this 19 times, that sort of thing. But this company is expected to have$250 billion in revenue this year. And so you tell me, you know, having, you know, B2C chats over WhatsApp or DMs is going to move the needle on that.

45:37Terry Duffy:Probably not. But I think investors will like to see another way for them to monetize the spend because that's what it was in the doghouse for or has been, you know, since earnings. I like to pay attention because, as you know, it's the cheapest thing you can do. You and Mike, thank you, had Mandy's shoe on, I think, yesterday. And she was talking about single stock volatility. Look at the volatility. And I mean, Facebook, a trillion and a half dollar company, the volatility is off the charts. And you just have to stomach it. And I think Karen's done a great job. I will tell you, and I think Karen would agree, the valuation is compelling.

46:08Terry Duffy:I think the average price for analysts is$820 or so. So if you can sort of suck it up and deal with the ebbs and flows, you've got to be long Facebook.

46:16Fast Money Team:Coming up, why SpaceX's IPO could weigh on AT &T. The details after this break. More Fast Money in 2.

46:29Fast Money Team:Welcome back to Fast Money. AT &T is sliding over 4 % today after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock from outperformed to perform. Analysts saying the company's broadband subscriber and mobile growth is under threat from the rising satellite competition of names like SpaceX. By the way, we just did some back of the envelope math on the SpaceX filing. At$135 a share, Elon Musk's stake in the company would be worth more than$350 billion, bringing his net worth to over a trillion dollars. A trillion dollars. A trillion dollars. I mean, it's just I can't even comprehend what that means. But anyway, back to AT &T.

47:08Fast Money Team:Who can't either. So SpaceX, as well as Amazon, have businesses that threaten this growth of broadband and mobile.

47:17Terry Duffy:Look, I think it'll be interesting because AT &T had been slowly getting some of their house in order, slowly had been paying down a debt load that's been extraordinary. Slowly, they and Verizon had started to kind of wave white flags in terms of very predatory, kind of competitive pricing against each other. Actually, the entire industry and T-Mobile really kind of pushed them to that. So it's a fascinating time. It really has been a case where I think the traditional fixed line players who have gotten heavily into mobile had been very interesting stories. I actually still own a little bit of Verizon.

47:55Terry Duffy:I don't own AT &T, and I think this is an existential threat. But 28, 28 and a half has been resistance going back to 2007, not 40 years, but 07. So it's failed a couple of times. And if there is an existential threat, I don't think there's any reason to be long in the stock at these levels.

48:13Fast Money Team:Can you imagine somebody having a stake of that size in a company? I mean, that's a trillion dollars. I mean, well, that's his. Yeah. Yeah.

48:19Terry Duffy:I mean, oh, that's his overall worth. Yeah. I mean, oh, that's just it is really a staggering amount of money.

48:26Fast Money Team:Yeah, I know Elizabeth Warren's going to have something to say about that.

48:29Terry Duffy:That would be my strong guess.

48:31Fast Money Team:Yeah. Up next, Final Trades.

48:40Fast Money Team:Final trade time, Timbo.

48:44Terry Duffy:See the color of this tie? No, I forget my final trade. I was just going to say, go next, man. Let's do this. CCJ.

48:52Fast Money Team:Karen? Yeah, old tie.

48:53Terry Duffy:Wait three days, though. I didn't think it was bad. She's just being conservative. Also, go Knicks, go Liberty, and go Max Myers. Happy birthday. Max Myers. Big number. We're not going to say what it is. Happy birthday, Max. FM legend. Broadcom, you know, Sox closed at all-time highs today, up 100 % in two months. I think this one will be really interesting. Watch that$400 record. I'll say it. He's 50. Doxed. Look at BLO, Melissa.

49:18Fast Money Team:All right. Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money. Starts right now.

49:24Terry Duffy:All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

49:51Terry Duffy:To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. The wrongs we must right. The fights we must win. The future we must secure together for our nation. This is what's in front of us. This determines what's next for all of us. We are Marines. We were made for this.

From the publisher

All things AI continuing to climb, as investors await a blockbuster SpaceX IPO, and semi and chip stocks cruise to fresh records. But is all the exuberance a sign of too much euphoria in the market? CME Group’s Terry Duffy helps break it all down, and why he sees some danger for retail investors as perpetual futures come into focus. Plus, Crowdstrike reports results, credit card stocks swipe lower, and finding opportunity in metals. 

Fast Money Disclaimer


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