In short
Fast Money episode covering record-high markets and a “semi swing” driven by AI momentum, with debate over whether chip rallies (especially Intel, NVIDIA, memory) are mania/bubble vs. justified by fundamentals and rotation to CPUs. Also discusses oil/energy strength (OIH near 8-year highs) tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, plus earnings reactions (Domino’s late delivery, Verizon subscriber growth, GE Vernova downgrade) and retail-trader positioning via AI trading tools (Moomoo).
Guests (backgrounds)
Joseph Zaytel, runs Zytel Macro Strategy Group; Neil McDonald, CEO of Moomoo U.S., an AI-driven online trading platform.
Key claims
Semis are overbought; take profits on parabolic moves, but AI demand and supply constraints may keep momentum. Oil is “higher for longer” due to conflict duration and stockpiling. Fed may pivot to “surgical” hikes; earnings fundamentals support “up and to the right.”
Notable examples
Intel’s record close and ~30% jump after earnings; NVIDIA gaining ~$1.5T in a month; Mellius Research initiating Micron/SanDisk buys; OIH near late-2018 highs; Verizon adding 55,000 subscribers; GE Vernova downgraded by BNP Paribas to neutral.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOAnalyzing Semiconductor Market Trends
1:40 to 5:24
Explore the recent movements in the semiconductor sector, including key stocks.
“I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from studio of Yithin Azak.”
Skepticism Around Rising Stock Prices
5:24 to 9:02
Delve into the skepticism expressed by analysts regarding the sustainability of semiconductor stock gains.
“And in the past earnings report, they said, oh, data center business is growing.”
The Role of Taiwan Semiconductor
9:02 to 12:20
Discuss the critical importance of Taiwan Semiconductor in global tech and economics.
“If they overbuild too much capacity and then they don't see the orders come in, then that's a real problem for them.”
Prospects for Future Market Growth
12:20 to 14:00
Consider the potential for future market growth and the implications for investors.
“Yeah, they have Azure, but they have 440 million installed base of Office 365 users, and they're not buying this stuff.”
Economic Optimism and Fed Challenges
14:00 to 15:48
Discussion on the current economic outlook and challenges faced by the Fed.
“We haven't started to see that yet, but I think we will.”
The Fed's Rate Cutting Cycle
15:49 to 17:48
Exploration of the Fed's rate cutting cycle and its implications for the market.
“You talk about potential for surgical hikes potentially being positive for the market.”
Expectations for the New Fed Chair
17:49 to 19:20
Discussion about the potential direction of Fed policy under new leadership.
“This will happen under a Warsh Fed chairmanship?”
Market Reactions to Fed Policy
19:21 to 20:26
Analysis of how the Fed's actions influence market behavior and sectors.
“Actually, what I heard Joe say is the Fed's kind of out of the picture right now in a way that's substantial for both the economy and, therefore, for the market.”
Breaking News: Assassination Attempt
20:27 to 22:11
Report on a serious incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
“Well, the suspected gunman at Saturday night's White House Correspondents' Dinner appearing in court today.”
Upcoming Market Discussions
22:12 to 22:35
Preview of upcoming discussions regarding market movements and trading strategies.
“How our traders are positioning the oil trade next.”
Show all 25 chapters
Oil Market Dynamics
23:59 to 27:39
In-depth discussion on oil prices, market trends, and company performances.
“The oil service is ETF at levels not seen since late 2018.”
Market Impacts and Future Outlook
27:40 to 28:00
Forecast on market impacts from various factors including energy and technology.
“It felt like, I mean, we're 20-something minutes in the show.”
Market Impacts and Future Outlook
29:35 to 29:58
Forecast on market impacts from various factors including energy and technology.
“And let me tell you, game day is serious business at my house.”
Market Overview and Earnings Insights
30:06 to 30:54
Discussion on recent market performance and notable earnings reports.
“Stocks kicking off the week with a small gain.”
Retail Trader Sentiment with Neil McDonald
30:54 to 31:44
Neil McDonald discusses retail trader optimism and trends on Moomoo.
“Moomoo, by the way, is an AI-driven online trading platform with millions of global users.”
AI-driven Tools for Traders
31:44 to 32:53
Exploration of Moomoo's AI tools and their impact on trading strategies.
“It's amazing, Neil, for a global platform where you're seeing amazing growth in places like Japan and Malaysia.”
Agentic AI and Trading Automation
32:53 to 36:22
Neil explains the capabilities of agentic AI and automated trading features.
“Yeah, I mean, we rolled out AI last year.”
Technology's Impact on Trading Accessibility
36:22 to 37:27
Discussion on how technology has democratized trading and its implications.
“So you can actually take the stabilizers off completely and let it trade.”
Preview of Elon Musk vs. OpenAI Trial
37:27 to 37:42
Overview of the upcoming trial involving Elon Musk and OpenAI.
“Well, we can talk offline about the 40 year charts.”
Trial Updates with Kate Rooney
37:42 to 40:01
Kate Rooney provides updates on the Musk vs. OpenAI trial proceedings.
“It is day one of Elon Musk's courtroom battle against Sam Altman.”
Analysis of Trial Ramifications
40:01 to 40:49
Discussion on the potential impacts of the trial on the tech landscape.
“I'm wondering what the jurors think of Sam Altman or any of the others.”
GE Vernova Stock Analysis
40:49 to 42:00
Analysis of GE Vernova's stock performance and future outlook.
“Coming up, a low energy call on Wall Street.”
Market Analysis and Stock Insights
42:00 to 43:09
Explore insights on stock performance and market dynamics.
“If you look at the market cap, it's a$300 billion market cap.”
Transition to Final Trades
43:09 to 43:21
Brief discussion leading to the Final Trades segment.
Final Trades Discussion
43:21 to 43:57
Participants share their final trade picks and thoughts.
“McDonald's, 52-week all-time highs to nearly 52-week lows.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out. It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be. So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Are you as confident as you should be when it comes to growing your business? Is your strategy ready to execute today? If cash flows aren't where they need to be, growth could be at risk, especially in the eyes of your investors, board members, and the business press.
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1:28Tim Seymour:move. Plus, the OIH trading near eight-year highs. Domino's fails to deliver on time. And a downgrade for GE Vernova, why one analyst says the red-hot AI energy play might have gotten ahead of itself. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from studio of Yithin Azak. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with all the moves and chipmakers today. The Sox Semi ETF, I should say index, taking a breather after 18 straight days of gains, ending its longest ever winning streak, thanks in large part to Marvell, AMD, and Broadcom, but it is still pacing for its best month on record, up 37 percent so far in April.
2:04Tim Seymour:Twenty-four of the index's 30 stocks have hit 50 two-week highs or better in the past week, and that includes Intel, which closed at a record again today. Those shares have nearly doubled just this month and in the two days since its earnings report. On Thursday, the longtime laggard has soared 30 percent. NVIDIA, by the way, also closing at records, It has gained almost a trillion dollars in market value this month. The loan is now solidly back above the$5 trillion mark again. Memory makers also surging, led by Micron and SanDisk. Those names ripping to fresh highs after Mellius Research initiated both with a buy rating, citing high demand through the end of the decade.
2:41Tim Seymour:So what should we make of these staggering moves higher? Can they continue? Would you continue to bet on them, Guy?
2:48Melissa Lee:Momentum is a powerful thing. And listen, I would have said sell Intel$30 ago, and I probably did. So here we are at all time highs trading it. I don't know if you want to be generous, 80 times this year's numbers. Now you can say, you know what, guy, they're going to have 45 percent EPS growth. Yeah, that's true. But less than 10 percent revenue growth margins. OK, you're making the bet that they're able to sort of transition from the CPU side of things to the GPU side of things or vice versa. And I think that's what the market is saying. And they're also saying, you know what, we're not going to make the same mistake in Intel that we made with Micron and SanDisk.
3:22Melissa Lee:Understanding it's entirely different, betting on momentum to continue. But you're in the deep end of the pool here for sure.
3:27Tim Seymour:Yeah. You're skeptical too last week.
3:30Melissa Lee:I was. I remain skeptical. I mean, what we're involved in, there's a full-on mania. I mean, make no mistake about it. And there's a lot of money to be made in a mania. And, you know, you hear that term bubble all the time. This is a bubble. If it's a mania, it's a bubble. And, you know, at some point it's going to burst. And, you know, you ride it. You know, they say, you know, let your profits run and take your losses kind of quickly. And if you keep doing that, you keep raising stops, even if it's just a mental sort of thing. there's a lot of money that has been made. I just don't know when you have a parabolic move like that based on fundamentals that we're pretty well aware of, you know, and Guy was just talking about Intel.
4:02Melissa Lee:I mean, you know, this is a company that is expected to earn one, I don't know,$1.10 this year. And last time it was trading above 70 was in 2021 when it had$5.50 in earnings, you know, and just when you think about that, it's pretty astounding. And then you go over to NVIDIA, which was the clear winner over the last three and a half years or so. It was in the doghouse for about seven months or so, and all of a sudden it's gained$1.5 trillion in a month. I mean, so again, you know, like Guy just used the term deep end of the pool. I think it's a bit more dangerous than that. I think it's like diving into the shallow end of the pool right now.
4:37That's very dangerous. Don't do that at home.
4:40Melissa Lee:Don't try to jump through maybe like one of those like donuts or anything like that. So Guy, I agree with both of them. Guy started off saying that he would have sold it 30 points ago. I sold it 45 points ago. Thought I did well, and I did do well. It was a double. I would never saw it running like this. This has been a confluence of events. This is a storied stock from the government. This is a whole semi-run, and I think it should be over. Dan talked about a lot of the fundamental reasons why it's over. But just look at 18 straight days. You don't have to get that much in the weeds here to think, I don't want to buy a stock that's in a group that's been up for almost 20 days.
5:19I would say take profits.
5:21Tim Seymour:There seems to be, though, a willingness or desire on the part of the markets to look at some of the chip makers that didn't necessarily play in the AI trade before and want to believe that there is a role for them in the AI trade. Intel with the CPOs. We saw it with Texas Instruments, too. They had a small data center business. And in the past earnings report, they said, oh, data center business is growing. And that stock got a bit higher, too. So it's sort of interesting that you want to look for the other ones aside from the memory ones and the ones that we saw participate. Yeah. So and as these guys are pointing, it's not like you're just looking at Intel, though.
5:55I mean, so so this is this is not early in a wow. How about Intel trade? This is holy. You know what? But here's let me fight Intel's corner for a second. I don't own it. And and, you know, you you want me to at least fight the corner of Intel. I'll say server CPU demand is clear. And this is part of the rotation. There's a CPU renaissance, as Evercore's note recourse. And again, the ratio, Evercore will say, went from 8 to 1 GPU to CPU. It's going the other way around. You know, what other analysts on the street are also saying, that Intel actually has clean capacity room where a Taiwan Semi is running into capacity constraints.
6:36There are other just dynamics in terms of, really, it's a lot of this will depend on their manufacturing and their, essentially, the profitability and the manufacturing process. that which they can control and that which they can't. But again, one of the arguments around Intel is this is a domestic story that produces its inputs here. They're totally in control in a world where it seems like a lot of these major players have self-reliance, excuse me, don't have self-reliance and are reliant on other people is what I'm really trying to say. I don't want to own it. I sold it at 45 bucks. I hate myself.
7:10But you know what? I've you know, it made sense at the time. And I do think that the demand in terms of A.I. still continues to show itself and that the memory names. That's what this is about.
7:24Tim Seymour:Yeah. I mean, don't feel bad because the average price target on the street is well below where it's trading right now. And I think it's like 60 or something like that. Barclays just raises price target today to 65, which is still 20 bucks below. So nobody thought this was coming anytime soon, if at all. But with that said, this is almost a double in the past month. Semiconductors overall up 40 % or so in the past. Is that worth buying at this point?
7:48Melissa Lee:The socks?
7:49Tim Seymour:The rest as opposed to.
7:51Melissa Lee:I mean, I'll play a little stock market with you. I think the answer is yes, but you've got to be specific. NVIDIA, by the way, Tim has been consistent on this. Made it all-time high today. But some of the laggards, for example, Qualcomm, understanding it's an entirely different business. But if you're looking for valuation, it still makes sense. I think Qualcomm does. AMD's in the driver's seat, I guess. But valuation is stretched on all those names. I think Qualcomm, to me, is the most interesting one in the group. Yeah, so if you're asking me what I'd rather, I'd rather TSM. And Tim talks about, you know, capacity constrained.
8:20Melissa Lee:And, again, they have obviously 20 % of their revenue comes from NVIDIA. They just own high-end GPU, you know, production. But, you know, they also have a lot of exposure to Apple. And, you know, Apple, if they ever get Apple intelligence correct, you might see an AI upgrade cycle for their hardware. And, obviously, that would be very good for Taiwan Semi. They also have some fabs here in the U.S. And they're not laying down Intel. They probably do not worry about Intel and their manufacturing capabilities one bit. The company also raised their CapEx guidance. That was one of the knocks about this company over the last few years.
8:54Melissa Lee:As all of these hyperscalers were raising their CapEx, Taiwan Semi was not keeping up. One of the reasons why is that they run the risk of overbuilding, too, right? If they overbuild too much capacity and then they don't see the orders come in, then that's a real problem for them. So if the capacity or the capex is not going lower, which it sounds like we're going to get a really good idea on Wednesday night, whether that's the case. And I suspect in this environment, they're all going to at least stay pat. Maybe they raise it a little bit. I think all of that comes up roses for Taiwan Semi.
9:22Tim Seymour:I actually like that game that you proposed. So I'm glad you went ahead and did it. I mean, basically, it's like if not Intel, then what? Semiconductors. Yeah, I wouldn't buy any of them. Nothing. No, because now can they continue to run a little bit more? Of course they can. We've seen that. We've all we've all went around the table and said that we were shocked with the run they've already had. But I think for me, I think, you know, there's a whole host of reasons why they ran. And I think supply constraints have been a little bit maybe peaky right now. Have we reached peak supply constraints?
9:57I don't know. Maybe if the war takes another leg worse, maybe maybe that's another leg higher. But for me, I think there's I don't like the spike. I don't like the charts. I think they're all overbought. Wow. How about you? Well, Dan brought up Taiwan Semi. It's the biggest position in my ETF. So, I mean, I love it. And I think it's the most important company in the world, actually, especially when you think about global kind of tech security and the role they play with a number of different sovereigns. How important Taiwan Semi is not just to Taiwan, but to Japan, but to much of to Korea, to, you know, We know the biggest risk in Taiwan Semi right now is China, and we know what that risk is.
10:35Tim Seymour:Yeah. Does the run in semis, does it tell us something about the markets and the markets thinking about the AI trade at this point? It seems to be going to where the scarcity is.
10:47Melissa Lee:I think that's part of it. I think the momentum is still there. So people, especially, again, in video, it's been sideways since October, seemingly breaking out now. People understand how momentum works in this market. And I think they're trying to trade on the back of it, which, by the way, has been the absolute right strategy. Valuation be damned. Do you think we're going above 700 billion in CapEx spending? Because I think you have to believe that this continues to grow by orders of magnitude in order to keep that trade alive. And I think we're probably if you're going to say the last inning, I don't know about that, but we're in the last few innings.
11:19And I think to Dan's point, when we hear from the hyperscalers this week, if CapEx spending is not intact, then I don't think you're going to see I think you're going to see this trade reverse very poorly. I hear you maybe on the hyperscalers and there's, you know, that's looking like maybe that CapEx should have been cut back a year ago. But I just think we're going to have rotation into the broader industrial economy. And I mean, you know, CapEx spend at 700 billion that's mostly attributed to hyperscalers, I think, is is not the story. It's CapEx spend attributed to the other 493. I'm just talking about the semis.
11:52I understand, but their investment in semiconductors, if we're talking about hyperscalers' investment in semiconductors, I think there are other companies that are doing this.
12:00Melissa Lee:Yeah, but I mean, the one thing I would say about that, that's the infrastructure that's been built that allows the 493, the industrials, to kind of build on top of that. And I think the risk for the hyperscalers, it becomes commoditized, that maybe there's too much capacity. And a lot of these companies, we've seen a lot of these surveys, right? They're not getting the return right now on the investments in this. And, I mean, Microsoft's the best example. Yeah, they have Azure, but they have 440 million installed base of Office 365 users, and they're not buying this stuff. And they're the ones who have the partnership with OpenAI, who have one of the biggest cloud services behind AWS.
12:35Melissa Lee:And are embedded to every single desktop. So that's why, I mean, I think that's a number that a lot of folks are going to be, you know, when we see. As you was up 38 % last time around, and the market hated it.
12:46Tim Seymour:Because of the 15 million co-pilots. Who's your favorite co-pilot in the movies business? You know what? It's got to be Goose. I was thinking Goose is good, but how about Kareem in Airplane? You know what? Yes. I knew you were going Airplane. I knew it. It was so obvious. All right. For more on the markets, let's bring in Joseph Zaytel. Come on. Clap them, man. We're going to be doing forever. Get this. He now runs Zytel Macro Strategy Group. Joe, it is great to see you. It's been too long. I miss you all. Thank you so much. It is so great to be back. What do you make of where the markets are at record highs, given what is going on in the precipice of earnings?
13:26Tim Seymour:Does this make sense to you? It does. And I would say that I'm an optimist. I think that the economy remains on very strong footing. I think we continue to go up and to the right. And I just want to build on Tim's point. they just made a second ago, which is about a broadening out, because we've seen this massive investment into CapEx. And it is not, I think we're only in the first stages of this starting to pay dividends through the rest of the economy. And the analog here is the 1990s tech investment, right? And it was about all that investment in the 1990s in tech stocks that then broadened down.
13:57And the decade after that tech boom, you saw massive productivity through the rest of the economy, hence the other sort of 493. We haven't started to see that yet, but I think we will. And I think that will pay dividends this year, next year and beyond. So my overall view of the economy is I'm optimistic. I think we go up and to the right. And I think that does present challenges for the Fed because they're facing economy. It's been a lot more resilient. And this has been a deeper cutting cycle than what you would normally expect in a non-recessionary environment. So I think there's going to be challenges.
14:25But my true north here is up and to the right. All right, Joe.
14:28Melissa Lee:But to get those productivity gains after that Internet bubble, the market had to crash, right? There had to be this sort of thing. And the markets are very different than the economy and the productivity gains that are obviously going to drive a lot of economic activity through earnings that are going to be benefiting from that productivity gain. So we have an investment bubble here. Can we continue to run but then also have that inflection of other industries that are going to benefit from this? To me, you almost need a shakeout to some degree. And I think it's probably coming at some point before those productivity gains.
15:00Yeah, I mean, it's a really good question. I wouldn't predict a bubble bursting or anything like that. Are there going to be parts of this market that overheat? You know, absolutely. But here we are, a quarter of the way through earnings season, and first quarter earnings are, again, shaping up to be very good, double-digit gains. I think we'll see double-digit earnings growth for the rest of 2026 and the next 12 months. So you've got underlying fundamentals that are pretty supportive. You've got really high-quality companies that are making investment, and we can see a path to that investment paying off.
15:26So are there going to be periods where we get over the tips for our skis? Sure. Are we going to see some pullbacks? Sure. The Nasdaq in 1999 to 2001 fell 76 percent from peak to trough. That's the bubble bursting you're talking about. But here I think we've got very high quality companies with real cash flows, real earnings, and they continue to develop AI. And I think we're in the very early stages of this.
15:46Melissa Lee:The original Jay-Z, great to have you back. I'm excited. I think I can speak for all of us. Question about the Fed. You talk about potential for surgical hikes potentially being positive for the market. I actually agree with you there, but speak to that because that's counterintuitive. Sure. So the starting point here is I think this cutting cycle is over. Right. I think the Fed is done. When we came into 2026, the consensus was for additional rate cuts. The Fed's own dot plot called for at least one additional cut. But what we've seen is an economy that remains more resilient than than most people expected.
16:18And, you know, here you have about 175 basis points worth of cuts that have already been delivered in this cycle. Now, if you zoom out a little bit and you look at the history of Fed cutting cycles, you can take all those cutting cycles and broadly categorize them into two different buckets, recessionary cut cycles and non-recessionary cut cycles. A recessionary cut cycle, the Fed will slash and burn. They cut 350 basis points. They cut deep and long. A non-recessionary cut cycle is typically shorter and shallower. On average, a Fed is going to cut about 80 basis points in a non-recessionary cut cycle.
Read the full transcript
16:48Well, in this one, they've cut 175. It's lasted 19 months. and we have a$30 trillion economy. It's growing at 3%. We've got productivity. We've got stable labor markets. I think that they're going to have to surgically walk some of that back. I think we'll see insurance hikes. And historically, insurance hikes have actually been pretty positive for equities. We don't have a lot of instances. Really, just three come to mind in the mid-1990s and 2015. If you look at those insurance hikes in the mid-1990s when the economy was booming, in that investment boom, the market's performance six months later was pretty strong.
17:20Right? So here we are with, again, a strong economy and a Fed that I think might have to surgically pivot toward at least one insurance hike in 2026, maybe another one 2027. I think it's something that the market will actually benefit from because they're going to say, hey, the Fed, we're watching. We acknowledge this. We're ready to move. If the Fed has to go to a full hike cycle, it's because they made a mistake. But to surgically hike rates, I think it's actually a vote of support.
17:48Tim Seymour:You heard that Senator Tillis has removed his blockade from Kevin Warsh proceeding, that Kevin Warsh will probably be Fed chair. This will happen under a Warsh Fed chairmanship? Like you believe that this could actually. That's a really good question, right? Because we know we know we know, you know, people talk about Warsh wanting to argue that AI is deflationary and and, you know, AI generates productivity. Productivity is deflationary. And so he's going to be coming in. You know, the deck's been cleared. So likely comes in in June for probably his first meeting. And in some respects, there's actually an analog out there for this.
18:20In the mid-1990s, Greenspan was all over the Internet economy, and he was arguing that Internet and technology adoption would be deflationary. And in 95, 96, he was arguing that. Unfortunately, they didn't have the evidence to back it up, because when he commissioned the Fed to go out and do the studies, it turns out they couldn't find any evidence that that tech investment was actually deflationary. That was the Greenspan bluff. So you could very easily see the next Fed chair coming in talking about AI being deflationary. The only challenge is it's not the numbers.
18:52Tim Seymour:Right. That's the trick. Joe, it is great to see you. Thank you for having me back on. I missed you all. Four-year hiatus. Has it been a four-year hiatus?
19:02Melissa Lee:Joe, am I correct? Has it been a four-year hiatus? Yes, sir. Joe? February 2022. You all have not changed. You didn't have gray hair the last time. No, I didn't. Being at home for six months on a non-compete and getting involved in a family's morning routine will do that.
19:18Tim Seymour:Understandable. Great to see you, Jeff. See you again soon. What do you think? Rate hikes? Surgical rate hikes? I don't think it matters. Actually, what I heard Joe say is the Fed's kind of out of the picture right now in a way that's substantial for both the economy and, therefore, for the market. I realize the Fed always matters. But what I liked that that I would reinforce and it reinforces an S &P where it is, is that there's a robust earnings environment and you have cyclicalities. It tells me I also want to chase a couple of things that were really working today, like banks that are getting back up near those all time highs again.
19:47So I tend to agree with it. I don't know. I mean, I think there's probably more politics around the Fed than both the new chairman will actually be embodying. And I think it probably will be kind of a relief. The Fed is back to their old job. Not a shot. There's going to be a hike. Even surgical, it doesn't matter what it is. Not a shot. There'll be a hike. And during the 90s, there was no supply issue with oil. There was no tariffs in the 90s. There was a host of different reasons why they were raising. And also the collapse of the job market. When you compare 2025 to 2024 and 2026, the job market has really fallen out of bed.
20:26And there's a dual mandate here. not a shot they're going to raise.
20:29Tim Seymour:Well, the suspected gunman at Saturday night's White House Correspondents' Dinner appearing in court today. CNBC's Megan Casella is at the White House with the very latest. Megan. Melissa, that suspected gunman at the White House Correspondents' Dinner on Saturday night has now been criminally charged with trying to assassinate the president. That was one of three charges that was formally handed down when 31-year-old Cole Allen appeared in court in Washington this afternoon for the first time since the incident. Now, that first charge, The attempt to assassinate the president is punishable with up to life in prison.
20:59That's according to the acting attorney general Todd Blanche. The other two charges he faces are transportation of a firearm or ammunition in interstate commerce to commit a felony and discharge of a firearm during a crime of violence. Now, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, Janine Pirro, says more charges will be coming as this investigation continues. Take a listen. Those charges are only three charges that are in the complaint that has been presented in federal district court about an hour ago. There will be additional charges as this investigation continues to unfold. But make no mistake, this was an attempted assassination of the president of the United States, with the defendant making clear what his intent was.
21:45And that intent was to bring down as many of the high-ranking cabinet officials as he could. Now, Melissa, law enforcement says at this point that they know that Allen fired his shotgun, but they say it's unclear at this time whose bullet hit the Secret Service agent who was injured. So more to come on that point as this investigation continues. Melissa.
22:08Tim Seymour:Megan, thank you. Megan Casella. Coming up, a high-energy ETF, the OAH hitting multi-year highs today. How our traders are positioning the oil trade next. Plus, all the action from this morning's earnings reports, why Domino served up some cold pizza. And the surprise subscriber growth boosting Verizon. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two. Oh, boy. Cold.
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23:59Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The oil service is ETF at levels not seen since late 2018. A stalled peace talks between the U.S. and Iran drove energy prices higher today. Brent crude jumping almost 3 percent, topping 108 a barrel, while WTI rose 2 percent to 96. What do you make of this? I mean, we're talking about the run in semis. I mean, OIH, wow.
24:18Melissa Lee:To me, this suggests that the energy move might be over. Well, let's put it this way. I think it might be over in terms of the levels that we saw, but I don't think it's over in terms of how long it's going to last. And OIH is telling exactly that story that duration wise, it's going to last a lot longer than people think. So I think we've been pretty consistent here. I think you want to stay in the oil service names. I think the XLE is a place to be, although that's probably more volatile. OIH is steady as she goes, and I think it continues to go higher. I think SLB, I don't think we're allowed to call it slumber day anymore.
24:49It's really weird, by the way. It's like it was a naughty word. But anyway, SLB had an underwhelming first Q number. That wasn't time to buy it. I think you've kind of, you didn't miss it. Again, if you look at the earning power of this company going back to times when oil was in spike mode, And take yourself back to 2015, 2016. Look at the earnings power of the company. Their move into digital is an important part. And I think they have production recovery. And I think the OIH, which also really take a long-term chart. I know Guy likes the 40-year chart. I don't think he has to go that far. I mean, it's a chart duration of choice.
25:22Melissa Lee:It's 40 years. I like the 40 years. You do it a log, though, right? Of course you have to do it a log. Okay, I just want to be clear.
25:30Tim Seymour:It does seem like as this conflict is progressing, finally, more and more on Wall Street are raising their estimates for WTI, as well as Brent Goldman Sachs today doing that to both Brent and WTI, saying, you know what, now we see mid-June as the end of the conflict as opposed to mid-May. But it's sort of like this rolling, like we want to suspend belief in terms of when it's going to end. But we have to confront the reality that it's not ending. Right. Oil markets are unforgiving both up and down. And the market is perceiving this is the the the conflict has extended longer than we thought it would it would take.
26:05So when they do reverse, it will reverse very hard. And I'd rather be in the refiner play, which actually makes those crack spreads, the input versus what they sell it for, because their number one input is a barrel of oil. I'd rather be there than the other places.
26:21Tim Seymour:Do you think that we reverse that quickly, given infrastructure is damaged? It's not just let the ships through and then everything goes back to normal. Well, one thing before you go away. So I don't think it reverses to the point of$65 a barrel oil, but anything less than people thinking$110,$120, I think is still going to be bearish.
26:40Melissa Lee:I think we're in this new range. Higher for longer.
26:44Tim Seymour:You hate that, right? I know. But isn't that what you were kind of saying?
26:48Melissa Lee:Not even hump day. No, it's not hump day. It's going to last longer. I think energy prices will be elevated longer than the market realizes at this point. So higher for longer. And the OIH is telling you. Do you think by Turkey Day, gobble, gobble, gobble, gobble? Do you think? I can't. I know. I can't. The gobble, gobble. Every country in the world is stockpiling. Every country in the world is buying up everything they can. Every country in the world is thinking about how they're not going to be in this position again. To me, oil prices are not going to correct the minute they open the street.
27:19By the way, that's the same thing for chips. Correct a bit, but they're not going back to 65. It's 85 to 90.
27:25Melissa Lee:Strategic reserves. Well, that's the same thing for GPUs and chips and CPUs. I mean, like, if you don't think there's double ordering right now because of maybe the access to helium, because of a whole host of things as far as the shipping costs and everything like that. So, again, I think you can draw a lot of, you know, comparisons. I was expecting to have at it, people. I know. It was time, right? It felt like, I mean, we're 20-something minutes in the show. On the Twitter, people are saying an Independence Day with Will Smith, that guy that lost his mind. He was a great pilot in that. Was he a pilot or a co-pilot?
27:58Melissa Lee:I don't know.
28:01Tim Seymour:There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Domino's doesn't deliver. The stock taking a huge hit after some undercooked results. Why the dough isn't rising for the pizza chain. and how competition is weighing on results. Plus, how one trading platform is leveraging the AI surge to help investors and what the CEO sees in store for the big tech trade with earnings on deck. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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29:09it's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one you can set earning cash back on what you buy every day and with Discover you can get this Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year seriously all of it and we trust you to make smart decisions after all you listen to this show See terms at discover.com slash credit card. It's Charles Barkley here with Wayfair. And let me tell you, game day is serious business at my house. If I'm grilling, chilling, and watching hoops, my outdoor setup better be ready to play. That's what Wayfair wins.
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30:03Tim Seymour:Wayfair, every style, every home. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks kicking off the week with a small gain. The S &P and Nasdaq both closing at fresh record highs. The Dow, though, posting a small loss now on a three-day losing streak. Shares of Verizon higher after telecom giant posted earnings that beat expectations, raised its profit outlook, too. The company also adding 55 ,000 new sell customer shares are now up nearly 17 % this year. And some after hours action. Cadence designs topping earnings and revenue estimates and raising full year guidance. Lending Club jumping after beating EPS and revenue estimates and giving better than expected EPS guidance.
30:37Tim Seymour:Semiconductor company Rambis falling after earnings fell short of expectations. And Nucor higher after beating the top in the bottom lines. Meantime, five of the MAG7 stocks are reporting earnings this week and retail traders are watching the results closely for a look at how they are positioning. Let's bring in Moomoo U.S. CEO Neil McDonald. Moomoo, by the way, is an AI-driven online trading platform with millions of global users. Great to have you, Neil. Thank you. Have you back. Thank you. Thank you, guys. Are retail traders optimistic? I mean, are they all in at this point, or do they miss out on this rally to fresh eyes?
31:13Our clients especially are all in. So even with the sell-off we spoke last time back in end of February, start of March, they didn't sell their call holdings. So they're still very long than Mag7. They sold some call spreads. They were smart. They bought some puts. They sold other parts of their portfolio. But then from kind of the end of March till now, every day we've seen inflows. They're all buying the same Mag7 names. They still believe, even with that 20 percent move from end of March till now, that they're all in. It's amazing, Neil, for a global platform where you're seeing amazing growth in places like Japan and Malaysia.
31:50and it really is a wealth management story as much as a trading story. But your per-client asset growth in the U.S. was the best of the global portfolio. Is that, again, is that just because it's a higher, it's a wealthier customer? I mean, how do you explain that in a world where I would have thought you would have seen, at least on a relative basis, percentage terms, some of these other places would have seen a bigger asset growth? Yeah, I think our clients tend to be on the higher end. We offer these amazing tools on the platform, so it tends to be more active traders. We have a lot of people who are buy and hold as well as the active portion.
32:24But I think our platform, because it is very tech forward, kind of it appeals to the people who are more serious investors. So not just your buy, sell, trading small amounts of stocks. These people have got large amounts of money and they're smart with it and they use our tools on a daily basis.
32:44Melissa Lee:Another tool is the agentic investing. So that's just rolled out. So speak to that. It's another sort of arrow in the quiver of your customer base. Yeah, I mean, we rolled out AI last year. And when that came out, I was kind of like, that shocked me. And the uptake was incredible. I said at the time, it's like having Warren Buffett in your pocket. But this, now the agendic stuff, is next level. This is like having an execution desk, a quant, a developer, an engineer, a market screener person. It's like having your own pod at a hedge fund. everything you would need to make smart, informed decisions is all now on your desktop or on your phone.
33:23So, I mean, I use it. I have many more trading ideas like you guys than you have. A, time to trade. B, stocks I love that I can't watch. Option strategies I want to look at. I want to look at where the option curves are, what the time series looks like. I just don't have time with that and the news coming and your day job. So what this does is it enables you to watch the market, to trade for you. You can set. Here's what I did last week. So I've been using this for two weeks. I said, take my last 30 days' trades, run them back, and change my stop to half the distance and twice the distance. What's the P &L difference?
33:59And it built me a dashboard, went through my trades, and it showed me what my P &L would have been with the stop half the way or stop twice the way.
34:07Melissa Lee:Neil, are you considering event contracts? And really, how is it kind of fitting into the narrative across the landscape in general? I'm just curious. Are you seeing clients who want them? and what do you think of the volumes and some of the things that are trading right now? So we don't do them at the moment. It's something that we are thinking about, but it's not currently on the platform.
34:24Tim Seymour:How do you backtest if you do the agentic AI commands? So it's like icon code, right? So I think every year for the past 10 years, I've paid that$39 for Udemy for teach yourself Python code. I've never got past the second lesson, because it's quite boring and I haven't got the time. Now you don't have to, so it's natural language. So I just type into the agent. So we have a... It's like speaking normally. Speaking normally. So we've got the Moomoo API. Then we built this really secure tunnel. So it's within the same environment. So it's not a third party. You're not ever exposing your password to the agent.
35:01So the agent would be OpenClaw, ClaudeCode. What else is there? GenX. There's CodeX, sorry. These are names I hadn't heard of two months ago. I don't think I've ever heard of Open Claw until the past six, seven weeks. Thankfully, our dev guys and our product guys knew all about this. But it means that you can just write, hey, this is my strategy. This is my overwriting strategy. Or this is every time S &P is up 1 % and oil is here, what would happen if I bought this? And it will run it for you on 20 years worth of data in seconds and give you every trade you did. So you could do it before on the platform, but the difference is you had to do the no-algo code building.
35:45Now you're just typing it.
35:47Tim Seymour:Do you have an idea of what is the most common sort of query that your users are typing in? What do they want to know about? What are they asking for? What are they trading? A lot of them are looking at their portfolios. What am I doing right? What am I doing wrong? Am I over-concentrated in something? People are really starting to use it to trade. So by default, it goes to our paper trading environment so you can practice. But we have people, we have clients who use it to scan the market every day. And when a trading idea comes, you get it on your phone. And it's, do you want to trade this? Yes, no.
36:20Tim Seymour:And then it executes. And then it executes for you. So you can actually take the stabilizers off completely and let it trade. But, you know, the step is do it paper first. Do it with confirmation second. And then when you feel very confident, you can let it trade for you. Neil, great to see you. It's fascinating. Thank you. Thanks, guys. And thank you for not mentioning baseball. At least not on TV. Got my baseball time. There's plenty of it. There's a lot to talk about, but we're loyal people here. What do you make of the technology? It's amazing. This has democratized trading. When I first started trading, it was only the largest institutions that had access to anything.
36:58Now you could model inside of 40 seconds, where it used to take you four weeks to model. So I think this is extremely exciting if you know how to use it and really don't get carried away. I would just say you talk about the parent company, Futu, which trades here in the U.S. I mean, this is an 11 times multiple, you know, with 16 to 18 percent growth. I mean, it's a really attractive name that's paying out a higher dividend and free cash flow.
37:23Tim Seymour:I don't know if they have 40 year charts, though, guys, so I'm not sure if you're ready for this.
37:27Melissa Lee:Well, we can talk offline about the 40 year charts. I mean, a lot of people, I think, are coming up.
37:32Tim Seymour:Yep. Coming up, Elon Musk versus OpenAI. The headlines from day one in the battle between tech heavyweights and what's at stake for AI as the parties face off the details when Fast Money returns.
37:47Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. It is day one of Elon Musk's courtroom battle against Sam Altman. The Tesla CEO is suing OpenAI and its CEO, alleging they went back on promises to keep the company nonprofit. CNBC's Kate Rooney has been at the courthouse all day. She joins us to the latest. Hey, Kate. Hey, Melissa. Well, the big headline is that the jury has finally been selected in that Elon Musk versus Sam Altman trial. We had a handful of potential jurors today saying that they had negative views of Elon Musk and of AI overall. The judge did acknowledge that about Musk, that the reality, this is a direct quote, is people don't like him, but she did also express faith that the jurors in this case could actually put aside that and then respect the judicial process.
38:28So it is moving forward tomorrow. Altman was inside, at least this morning. And the backdrop here, Musk is suing OpenAI and its CEO, Sam Altman, as well as President Greg Brockman. And Microsoft is a co-defendant as well. Musk was a co-founder of OpenAI. He alleges that he was deceived into funding the company under the guise of a non-profit, mission-driven startup at the time and non-profit. The two claims in this case, the first one in focus is breach of a charitable trust. So Musk's team saying that the promise at the time was to keep OpenAI an open source nonprofit and then prevent any sort of big tech company from monopolizing that technology.
39:05Google was the big one at the time. And then that moved towards a for-profit structure and deal with Microsoft. Compromised that promise. In a tweet this morning, Musk saying that Altman and Brockman, quote, stole a charity, full stop. The second claim at hand here, unjust enrichment. So Musk claims that Altman and Brockman used Musk's funding and connections to build what is now an$800 billion company and then personally profit from that. Musk is looking for up to$134 billion in damages and the removal of Altman and Brockman from their leadership positions, as well as changes in the recent restructuring that happened for OpenAI in the fall.
39:43Opening arguments kick off tomorrow. We will also start getting a high-profile list of witnesses. That will be next after opening arguments includes Elon Musk himself Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and then Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is also on that list, Mel.
40:00Tim Seymour:All right. Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney. I'm wondering what the jurors think of Sam Altman or any of the others. What do you think the ramifications are? Whenever we have these trials and these CEOs, CFOs, whoever, are compelled to testify, you always learn interesting things about agreements, etc. Well, they're not going to be good things that we learn.
40:18Melissa Lee:I mean, here's the thing. It's pretty obvious who these people are. it's pretty obvious what they think about this technology and how they want to use it. I know that we're all enjoying it in a whole host of different ways. And it's just kind of scary that we have like a half a dozen guys like this who own this technology and have really all this ability to do and use it however they want. And the fact that these guys are going to beat each other's brains in, I mean, have a ball. I mean, like, you know, and let's see what comes out in discovery, because I think there's a lot of really nasty stuff that we're probably going to find out.
40:49Tim Seymour:Coming up, a low energy call on Wall Street. Why one analyst is powering down on GE Vernova after a supercharged run this year and where he sees the stock heading next. More Fast Money in two.
41:06Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. GE Vernova sliding 2.5 % today after BNP Paribas downgraded the high-flying energy name to a neutral from outperforming. analysts saying they need more visibility on how the company will execute on more than 110 gigawatts of orders by the end of the year. They did raise their price target on the stock to 1190. That is about 6 percent higher than where the shares closed today. G.E. Vernova has run up 71 percent so far this year. Basically, one argument that they pose is, you know, 90 percent of their gas turbines are sold already in terms of their pipeline. So what else is there to get the stock to move higher.
41:44Melissa Lee:Right, and at some point it becomes a valuation thing, like how can you justify it if that in fact is the case? And I think, listen, the average price target is$11.87, so they're right in line. I think if you're chasing the stock to the upside now, that's exactly what you're doing, you're chasing. So I don't love the price target change, but I like the call in general. If you look at the market cap, it's a$300 billion market cap. In backlog, it's$163 billion in backlog. Their book-to-bill is a ratio of basically two, meaning every time they fill an order, they get more. They get two orders every time they fill one.
42:17So it's hard to bet against this stock. I do understand the run. I do understand maybe you want to pull back. It's right around those price targets. But I wouldn't be a buyer here, but I also wouldn't run for the exits. What do you think? Well, I commend the analysts for, you know, leaning into a stock that's tripled over, you know, if you go back, you know, a year and a half. I mean, it's been extraordinary. It's been one of the plays. It's been part of the data center play and the build out and the power side of it. The valuation at some point becomes a problem. I'm not chasing it here.
42:45Tim Seymour:I mean, this is sort of the argument that you can make with a lot of the memory stocks. I mean, a lot of it is sold. The pipeline is sold. And so what else is there to move these stocks higher? And that's the promise of more beyond that. Well, we haven't even talked about access to energy here.
42:59Melissa Lee:I mean, like, so you can talk about oil in this and that, but I mean, this NIMBY stuff that's going on with these data centers, and a lot of it has to do with the use of water and the price of oil or the price of energy.
43:09Tim Seymour:Up next, Final Trades.
43:21We'll be right back.
43:42Melissa Lee:Good. Whatever. McDonald's, 52-week all-time highs to nearly 52-week lows. I think you can take a shot.
43:48Tim Seymour:Guy.
43:49Melissa Lee:Love McDonald's.
43:50Tim Seymour:Who doesn't?
43:51Melissa Lee:You work there, too? No, I didn't, Tim. Funny man. Okay. But we're in R.I.G. gets you done.
43:56Tim Seymour:All right. Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money with Jim Kramer. Starts right now.
44:02All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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45:00Melissa Lee:There's only one Ozempic. I told you it was catchy.
From the publisher
Chip stocks in focus, as the SOXX Semi ETF snaps its historic win streak, but it’s not stopping the single stock moves. How Intel, Nvidia, and the memory makers are surging to fresh records, and how the Fast Money traders are positioning in the semi trade. Plus the latest energy moves in one oil services ETF, why Domino’s Pizza failed to deliver, and the latest read on the Retail trader. The CEO of one online trading platform joins us to lay out how his company is leveraging the AI surge to help investment strategies.
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