All The Tech Earnings… And Powell’s Last Rate Decision 4/29/26

29 Apr 2026 · 46 min · 21 chapters

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In short

The episode is a Fast Money roundup focused on big tech earnings and a Fed rate decision. It starts with “Mag 7” results: Alphabet’s quarter beats expectations, driven by Google Cloud—CEO Sundar Pichai says AI is the primary growth driver, with Q1 revenue from generative-AI products up nearly 800% YoY and cloud backlog nearly doubling to over $460B; CFO Anand Ashkenazi highlights AI-heavy CapEx and asks whether CapEx guidance will rise (raised to about $180–$190B). Meta shares fall after raising full-year CapEx to $125–$145B and citing component pricing, plus daily active users pressured by Iran internet disruptions and Russia limitations; Reality Labs losses appear to have peaked. Amazon shares dip then turn higher after AWS growth of 28% YoY and discussion of AI/agentic search and “agentic commerce.” Microsoft is slightly down after Azure beat, backlog at $627B, and AI spend at $31.9B; Copilot seats rise to 20M from 15M. The second half covers Chipotle same-store sales, Ford earnings (tariff relief and aluminum costs), and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s last press conference as he stays on the board; guests debate whether markets have priced out rate cuts.

Guests/participants

Tim Seymour, Carter Braxton Wirth, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami (panel); Melissa Lee (host); CNBC reporters Julia Borson, Mackenzie Sigalos, Deirdre Bosa, Seema Modi, Brandon Gomez, Phil LeBeau; CNBC contributor David Zervos; Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Alphabet's Earnings Overview

1:44 to 2:16

Discussion on Alphabet's strong earnings and AI's impact on growth.

“companies in the market report quarterly results to Eterbosa standing by on Amazon.”

Alphabet's CapEx and Revenue Insights

2:16 to 3:14

Analysis of Alphabet's CapEx guidance and revenue performance.

“products built on Google's generative AI models up nearly 800 percent year over year.”

Market Reactions to Alphabet's Performance

3:14 to 4:35

Panel discusses market reactions and metrics from Alphabet's earnings.

“And we are tracking those gains in the after-hour session.”

Meta's Earnings and CapEx Challenges

4:35 to 6:06

Exploring Meta's stock drop and the implications of raised CapEx guidance.

“They are now guiding to$180 to$190 billion this year in CapEx spend.”

Meta's Revenue Growth vs. CapEx Concerns

6:06 to 7:42

Discussion on Meta's revenue growth amid concerns over spending increases.

“Their shares are dropping after the company raised its full year CapEx guidance.”

The Pressure on Meta's User Engagement

7:42 to 10:30

Analyzing Meta's challenges with user engagement and monetization.

“Look, I understand Carter will tell you the move is justified because here we are.”

Amazon's Performance and Market Outlook

10:30 to 12:42

Panel discusses Amazon's earnings report and market expectations going forward.

“What's interesting is that Google's raised their dividend.”

Amazon's AI Potential and Future Growth

12:42 to 14:03

Exploring Amazon's unique position to leverage AI for operational growth.

“Again, Amazon was outperforming the peer group, actually even outperforming Google going into this print and actually had kind of tested.”

Amazon and AI: Insights on E-commerce

14:03 to 19:16

Discussion on Amazon's potential to leverage AI for improvements in logistics and advertising.

“I'm going to start throwing French words.”

Microsoft Earnings Analysis

19:16 to 19:50

In-depth analysis of Microsoft's earnings report and its implications for future growth.

“so a lot can happen between now and then.”
Show all 21 chapters

Chipotle's Financial Performance

20:26 to 24:48

Overview of Chipotle's latest earnings report and its consumer trends amidst current market conditions.

“Full sail and eyes open, inviting you to breathe and just be.”

Fed Decision and Powell's Future

25:50 to 28:00

Analysis of the Federal Reserve's recent decision and the implications of Powell staying on the board.

“what can be done, not what's usually done.”

Political Decisions Affecting the Fed

28:00 to 33:16

Discussion on political influences affecting Federal Reserve decisions and market reactions.

“This is, in all likelihood, a political decision that is going to keep the board from falling into majority hands of the president.”

Qualcomm's Earnings and Market Impact

33:16 to 35:02

Analysis of Qualcomm's earnings report and its effect on stock prices.

“The markets, it's been impervious to all those things.”

Big Tech Earnings Insights

35:02 to 37:31

Insightful discussion on earnings reports from major tech companies, including Amazon and Google.

“The turn coming after the semi-company said it is shipping data center chips to a hyperscaler, though the CEO told our Christina Parts Nevelis he wouldn't give details on which one until the investor day on June 24th.”

CapEx Growth and Investor Sentiment

37:31 to 42:00

Exploration of capital expenditure growth trends and their implications for investor confidence.

“Well, I think they're giving some confidence that revenue growth is going to sustain a little bit better than expected, just in terms of their ability to capitalize this agentic search piece.”

Investor Skepticism and Tech Earnings

42:00 to 43:12

Explore the reasons behind investor skepticism in tech earnings, focusing on Amazon and Facebook.

“We should remind everybody that the Microsoft conference call kicked off, you know, 16 minutes ago.”

Ford's Earnings Call Insights

43:12 to 45:22

Get key insights from Ford's earnings call, including revenue, commodity costs, and EV projections.

“I think Facebook, you're buying the weakness, and it's now meta as opposed to FB.”

Comparison of Ford and GM

45:22 to 46:30

Analyze and compare the financial health and forecasts of Ford versus GM based on recent earnings.

“Still, there's some shortages of aluminum around the world.”

Stock Movers and Market Trends

46:30 to 47:13

Discover the major stock movers and trends in today's market beyond the tech giants.

“Tim made fun of me, which is his want to do, but specifically about a 40-year chart that I asked for.”

Market Momentum and Investment Strategies

47:13 to 48:55

Discuss the implications of current market momentum and investment strategies for stocks like Bloom Energy and Intel.

“There were a bunch of stock movers outside the MAG-7 that captured our attention today.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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1:28Tim Seymour:his last meeting as Fed chair, what he had to say about inflation, job growth, and his post-chair plans, and the stage he is setting for his eventual successor. I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxton Wirth, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with the all-important night for big tech as four of the seven largest companies in the market report quarterly results to Eterbosa standing by on Amazon. Julia Borson has Metasimus tracking Microsoft. We start off with Mackenzie Cigalos on Alphabet. Those shares are the only one of the four moving higher after reporting better than expected results.

2:02Tim Seymour:The call kicking off in just the last hour. Mac, what's the latest? And those shares steadily climbing over the course of the call as CEO Sundar Pichai leans into cloud as the proof point for Google's AI strategy. Pichai saying that AI is now the primary growth driver for Google Cloud, with Q1 revenue from products built on Google's generative AI models up nearly 800 percent year over year. that helps explain why cloud backlog nearly doubled sequentially to more than$460 billion, a clear sign of demand for their AI infrastructure and a major endorsement of Google's in-house silicon strategy. 50 % of backlog is expected to be recognized as revenue within two years.

2:42The key question now is whether Alphabet ups its CapEx guide from$185 billion as it expands capacity in the market for TPUs. CFO Anand Ashkenazi saying that CapEx hit$35.7 billion in Q1, with the overwhelming majority of that spend focused in AI-specific infrastructure, free cash flow reaching$10.1 billion in Q1. And finally, Mel's search was also stronger than expected, which is key because that high-margin business is funding the build-out.

3:14Tim Seymour:Mac, thanks. Mackenzie Cigalos. And we are tracking those gains in the after-hour session. Guy, what did you make of this quarter? It's great.

3:20Melissa Lee:It's good for Google. And it was four or five quarters ago when people were talking about the existential risk of the search business vis-a-vis AI. A lot of people were concerned. That's proven to be, at least in the short term or last year and a half or so, unfounded. And this quarter, in terms of search, good for them. But then you just look at the metrics. Operating margins, they break it down two ways. Of gross revenue, 36 percent. The street was at 34 percent. Of net revenue, almost 42 percent. The street was at 39.5 percent. So they're operating the business better, which, in my opinion, means they're deserving of a higher multiple.

3:51Melissa Lee:So in my opinion, this move makes sense.

3:52Tim Seymour:I mean, it is a stunning move given they were up a lot. I mean, the best of the Mac 7 into the print.

3:58Melissa Lee:Yeah, that and Amazon. And, you know, I'd say that the expectations for Google weren't actually nearly as high as, let's say, for Amazon. I know we're going to get to that in a second. But I think the takeaway here is that cloud business growing 60 percent year over year and they only have 13 percent market share. So they are taking market share. I mean, that's, you know, you get that sort of growth. But it's also that vertical integration of it, right? So if you think of that backlog, you think of how much business is coming to them because of their own TPU kind of infrastructure there. So it just seems like everything's flying or, you know, on, you know, all cylinders.

4:31Tim Seymour:Yep. We've got to go to MASH. They've got more on Alphabet Mac. Mel, we're getting a revised CapEx range for Google. They are now guiding to$180 to$190 billion this year in CapEx spend. that's up from a previous estimate of$175 to$185 billion, which has already doubled last year. Thank you, Mackenzie. Mackenzie Cigallo. So another one raising capex here.

4:54Karen Finerman:Yeah, in line with memory prices, right? I mean, some of that's going to be a 20 % to 30 % increase in capex into where these companies had guided probably six months ago. I'm guessing most of that is memory. But in terms of what Google has told us, they've broken down some of this. I mean, 60 % of that went into servers, 40 % of that went into data center. And yeah, they are. I mean, they're competing on cloud and they're winning. It's funny, we didn't really, you know, no one seems too focused on YouTube, which I think continues to also be a really positive story here. Waymo rides doubled. I mean, there's parts of the story that we really think, I really believe, are part of the underappreciated value in Google.

5:31Karen Finerman:And, by the way, Google's not really a value story anymore. So be careful, at least relative to Meta, but relative to Microsoft. I mean, it's trading at a premium. You know, Anshali, of course, you made this point that it was the best performer coming into the event. And that's a testament to relative strength, right? It does all factors, momentum, relative strength. They're very powerful. It also, I think, it's a fairly immediate move. And it also is a testament to how accurate often the options market are. The implied move was 5.2%, 5.3%. And here we are at about 5.6%. So up and out, new high from the best performer coming into the race.

6:06Tim Seymour:All right. Let's get to meta here. Their shares are dropping after the company raised its full year CapEx guidance. Social stock also blaming Internet disruptions in Iran and limitations in Russia for the drop in daily active users. The call kicks off in about 25 minutes. Julia Borson's got the results here. Julia. Melissa, shares down nearly 7 percent. And a key reason for that stock move is the company raising its CapEx. Meta now saying it expects to spend between$125 billion and$145 billion for the year, up from the prior range of$115 to$135 billion. Saying, quote, this reflects our expectations for higher component pricing this year and to a lesser extent, additional data center costs to support future year capacity.

6:47Now that overshadowing the company accelerating its revenue growth to 33 percent, beating revenue expectations by nearly a billion dollars. This is its fastest quarterly revenue growth since the third quarter of 2021, when it reported 35 percent growth. But despite that first quarter revenue beat, the company's second quarter guidance for revenue was right in line with Wall Street expectations. But on the upside, losses in Meta's Reality Labs division seem to have peaked with smaller losses than anticipated in the quarter. Melissa will be listening to Meta's call, which starts in under 30 minutes.

7:22Tim Seymour:All right, Julia, thanks, Julia Borson. Meadow is already getting penalized for raising its capex the last time. And here we are again. It's raising its capex spending yet again. Guy, it was it was one of the first ones who was able to show Wall Street that they could monetize.

7:39Melissa Lee:I don't think listen, I don't think this move, the downside is justified. Look, I understand Carter will tell you the move is justified because here we are. I understand that. But, you know, you go through the numbers. First of all, if you just go through a free cash flow, it's almost twelve and a half billion dollars, which was three times what the street was looking for. Revenue growth continues to impress. Margin still hang in there. I mean, maybe people are scared about the spend. I get it, but they're being rewarded for the spend on the back of the margin improvement. So I think you buy the weakness in Facebook.

8:06Yeah, I mean, I guess as you intimated, I would take the other side. It's a stock that's been lagging the market. It's been lagging super cap peers. Relative strength, again, being so important. Bearish price volume correlation. The dropping and gapping several quarters before. I think it's a no-go.

8:23Melissa Lee:You know, it's interesting. Daily active users, something I've seen a couple times, went down a few percent, you know, quarter over quarter. And you think about it, it's 3.5 billion. I don't know how many people there are in the world, but that's a lot of people that are on, you know, Facebook sort of products. And, you know, that's probably a little bit of it, Mel, when you think about, you know, them being able to serve better ads, use that technology over the last few years. But now they actually have to monetize those users. And, you know, when you think about users outside the U.S., the ARPU, Tim, what is that again?

8:52Melissa Lee:Average revenue per user. Yeah. You know, it just monetizes.

8:56Karen Finerman:By the way, you could be different things. You could be units. You could be a lot of things. You could be unicorns. That's an excellent point. Or it could be the U in your junk.

9:02Melissa Lee:Yeah, well, no. The unit is not a U. Anyway, let's get back on track. Please. Well, when you think about that, it's just harder to monetize the rates that they get here in North America. So if you're not getting adoption of the models that are integrated into all their products, then that's going to become a problem, especially when you keep raising cap bets. And I heard you say this in the CBOT. I nailed that. You know, they don't have this cloud business. We just spent a lot of time talking about GCP and AWS, that sort of thing. So that's where the real question comes into the spend.

9:31Karen Finerman:I like the ad numbers. And again, ad impressions and pricing are their friend. I mean, they are they are extracting pricing power. So in terms of ROI, depending on how you want to look at this, I understand increased capex means you need a bigger ROI. But there was nothing wrong with those advertising numbers. And there's nothing wrong with that part of their business and their ability to monetize. So I get that this stock has been really stuck in a relative underperforming trend for a while. I'm not sure what shakes it loose. You know, as a meta shareholder tonight, you are not you're not feeling as if there's an existential crisis.

10:04Karen Finerman:I'm sorry. Maybe not raising the CapEx for the second time in a row would take it out of its malaise. Well, again, I mean, I just think, why wouldn't you be raising CapEx when we've heard about memory prices doubling on DRAM?

10:15Tim Seymour:I guess, I mean, we'll hear on the call what is a huge driver.

10:17Melissa Lee:Well, this is also a company that's using a lot of their free cash flow. They're actually doing creative deals to kind of build out this infrastructure. They keep raising it. I mean, that sooner or later is going to be something that is, I think it's weighing on the stock right now. It has over the last three to six months, but I think it continues to weigh on it.

10:31Karen Finerman:What's interesting is that Google's raised their dividend. So, I mean, in terms of actually paying it out, that's another sign that they have more free cash flow to give.

10:39Tim Seymour:All right. Let's get to Amazon. Those shares are down by about 3 percent right now. After beating top and bottom line estimates, its AWS cloud business also growing 28 percent year on year. The call kicks off at 530. CNBC's Deidre Vos has got the numbers. Some details. Dee. So that AWS growth number key for investors. And, yes, it beat the street, but it was just shy of the whisper estimate. And Amazon's cloud unit isn't alone. You guys have been talking about it. The other hyperscalers seeing strong cloud acceleration, too. Google's rate, more than twice that of AWS's, but, of course, off a smaller base.

11:12Now, last quarter, a 60 % increase in CapEx. You guys have also been talking about this. That really spooked investors and sent Amazon shares lower. No mention of any revision to CapEx in this quarter's earnings release, but we'll have to see if it's mentioned on the call. And that could move the stock further in the after hours. Of course, Meta and Google have already revised theirs. Bottom line, though, guys, is that Amazon stock, it has been the best performing of the Meg 7 this year. Estimates came down significantly after last quarter's conservative guidance. So it had to beat, which it did, but perhaps not enough for investors to have total conviction that momentum will continue to be as strong.

11:48And second quarter sales guidance that came in above. But operating income outlook at its midpoint, that was slightly, it was just under what analysts were looking for, Mel.

11:58Tim Seymour:All right, Deidre, thanks. Deidre Bosa, San Francisco. You know, of all of the MAG7 stocks, you could argue that Amazon has been the best steward of capital over the years, being able to turn up spending when it wants to and getting return on that spending afterwards.

12:12Melissa Lee:So people look at the CapEx up almost 77 percent year over year. I think what they should be looking at is operating margins were 13.1 percent. Street was at 11.7 percent. And we've talked about their ability to sort of turn the knob and get margins. So they're getting higher margins on the back of a spend. I don't know why the stock is lower here. Maybe it's giving up what it got during the day. Maybe there's a double top in the chart that Carter can point out. But I think Amazon is fine here.

12:37Karen Finerman:They just weren't enough to knock your socks off after a heroic run. Again, Amazon was outperforming the peer group, actually even outperforming Google going into this print and actually had kind of tested. I'm sure Carter's got a view on whether you actually had broken out to a legitimate fresh new high. But again, the second quarter guide is certainly ahead. Operating income was a little weak. But if you're thinking about also valuation, and we all know that doesn't really matter sometimes on earnings night, you're buying Amazon about as cheap as you can, certainly relative to a Walmart in terms of EBIT.

13:11Karen Finerman:You know, talking 11 to 12 times, you know, I'm not having a problem owning this stock here. And it's a muted response. I mean, a big, to your point, a big move, 30, 35 percent right to a former high. A little backing and filling, quite normal.

13:24Melissa Lee:Yeah. Going back to the cash flow conversation we're just having, I mean, their free cash flow is$1.2 billion in the quarter. That's down from$26 billion a year over year. So you think about that CapEx, they just raised it, I think, you know, going back to last quarter,$125 to$200. Now they just give$200 a little bit of a bump here. So, again, we're going to continue to see more creative ways for these companies to finance this build. And that's the question. At some point, it'll just be a little too much. You know, it'll just be a little too much debt. It'll be a little less raising of the dividend or buying back stock or the whole kind of, you know, pastiche that you'd like to say that these growth companies should have.

14:03Melissa Lee:Thank you. I'm going to start throwing French words. Bonjour, Tim. know what it means.

14:09Tim Seymour:One thing that an analyst wrote that I read during that that was interesting in terms of Amazon being able to apply AI to its own business and benefit from it. It has it is the only of the Mag 7, the only one that has a blue collar workforce that has logistics business that could seriously benefit from AI efficiencies based on that.

14:30Melissa Lee:Right. And there's 100 percent. Facebook is that you mentioned it. That's the one of these companies that seemingly has figured it out. Amazon probably has the most to gain from it based on what you just said. I agree with that. You're not seeing it necessarily in this quarter, although I will tell you margin improvement is substantial despite the spend. So again, I think Tim is saying it. I will say it. I don't think you run too far from that. Well, there is risk to that very high margin advertising business. That's something that's grown dramatically. And when you think about what agents and just these LLMs mean for advertising, I mean, this is something that I think a lot of these models going to have to deal with, especially the ones focused on e-commerce.

15:05Tim Seymour:Let's get to Microsoft now. Shares had been moving higher, but they are now in the red, down by about 2 percent. After top and bottom line results came in ahead of estimates, Seema Modi's got the details. Conference calls in 15 minutes. Seema. That's right. Microsoft's growth in Azure, it beat, Melissa, but perhaps the scale of the beat is being debated by Wall Street. Its backlog, which does represent cloud bookings, came in at$627 billion. That is a big number, but it does represent a slightly slower growth rate of 99 percent versus the 110 % growth rate it saw in the second quarter. Also notable, Microsoft's spending on AI dropped to$31.9 billion.

15:41Tim Seymour:That's lower than what analysts were anticipating and down from last quarter, fueling speculation that Microsoft is curbing to Wall Street pressure. What we do see evidence of, though, is CoPilot, its flagship AI assistant, trending in the right direction, now up to 20 million seats from 15 million last quarter. In addition to guidance, we will want color on OpenAI following the termination of Microsoft's exclusive agreement. Piper Sandler, analyst, made the point ahead of today's print that Microsoft has the in-house talent to develop its own models. But the question is, can it reach parity with competitors when AI advancements are progressing, Melissa, at a very fast pace?

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16:16Tim Seymour:Yeah, Seema, thanks, Seema Modi. There's also questions to whether or not they're going to have to spend themselves more. And to Seema's point, Q2, CapEx slowed down quarter on quarter. So that is a departure from what we are seeing from the rest of the bunch.

16:28Melissa Lee:Yeah, I think, you know, you guys were talking about it again with Brent Thill, I think, on the prior hour here. And, you know, you kind of laid out this whole thing about, like, their enterprise exposure, right? This is one of the only companies that we're really talking about tonight that has that exposure. And so when you go from 365 seats from 15 million last quarter, so sequentially up five on a base that's over 400 million, it's not exactly saying, you know, great uptake. That being said, this deal moving away from OpenAI, integrating Anthropic, having the enterprise security aspects of it, I would expect at some point this to accelerate further.

17:01Melissa Lee:And that's going to be the thing. If they have Azure growing at 40 percent, there's nothing to shake a stick at right there. And that did accelerate sequentially. So I think there's probably a lot of things that set up for Microsoft when sentiment is not particularly good right now.

17:15Karen Finerman:It's awful. And I actually think these copilot numbers, I realize given how many installs on O365 are out there that you've only got 20 million plus paid seats. But, you know, that's a big number. That's a big growth number over the 15 that was the former benchmark. I think you're paid to own Microsoft. And it's what we've said. This is a legacy player that's on everybody's desktop. I'm not sure it's going anywhere. And I do think they're going to be able to ring the register. and maybe it's kind of a Google story. I mean, I think people, we've counted them out when, in fact, they can partner now with anybody.

17:49Karen Finerman:Maybe this is part of the news coming out of the open AI.

17:51Tim Seymour:How's the chart look? Well, the worst of all, of course, coming into this, I mean, the stock peak back in August, and it's had a meaningful bounce, which gives less opportunity for a bounce. I'd put it in the pair of twos category. Whoa, not good. It was inevitable, right?

18:06Karen Finerman:It's not good and it's not bad. It's just like the two. No, I mean, come on, I think a pair of twos sucks. I don't want a pair of twos. There's worse than pair of twos. A pair of nines is like, you know, eh.

18:18Tim Seymour:A pair of twos is like milquetoast, right? I mean, it's just sort of like, eh, it's there. The trick with a pair of twos to poker is to fold. It's the least hand you could have with having no hand at all. Don't put any more money in. But if we're telling people to fold Microsoft, we're telling them that this is... No, meaning it's not, there's no discernible immediate opportunity to be long or short.

18:35Melissa Lee:Wait for the flop. And you might flop it too, Mel, as you've said many times. And I think you could flop it to in the form of this quarter. I don't think it's bad at all. And you could actually make a case for Microsoft on valuation still, despite the move from, what,$350 or so over the last couple weeks. So I think to Carter's point, it's a bounce that was looking for a reason to sell. I think you found it. But I don't think the quarter was bad. I'm embarrassed I use the word sucks on TV.

19:00Tim Seymour:No, you're not. No, in the previous hour, there was somebody who was on our air who said that word probably six times. Notice how she couldn't say it? No, I'm not going to say it. Anyway, we should point out that Microsoft's call is 12 minutes away, so a lot can happen between now and then. Coming up, we are keeping an eye on all the tech moves, bringing the headlines from the conference calls as we do get them. And it's not just tech, of course. The latest numbers out of Chipotle, Ford, and MGM straight ahead. And if all the earnings weren't enough, we are breaking down today's rate decision.

19:33Tim Seymour:There was one. What Jerome Powell had to say at what could be his last press conference as chair, and what influence he could wield as he stays on the board. Do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in two.

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21:20Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money, a burrito blowout.

21:23Karen Finerman:Oh, it's about time.

21:24Tim Seymour:I had to say it. Shares higher by 4.5 % after posting surprise same-store sales growth in its latest quarter. Brandon Gomez joins us here on set with the numbers and the very latest from the call. Hi, Brandon. Hey, Melissa. Yeah, the call is still ongoing, but EPS and revenue coming in line with the street's estimates. Clearly, the street liking that revenue jump of almost 7.5 % year over year. Now, I do want to point out that the company said that's largely driven by new restaurant openings. Yes, transactions up 0.6%, but average check was basically flat. Same-store sales better than expected, up 0.5 % compared to an expected 0.7 % decline.

21:57Guidance for same-store sales for the year expected to be flat as well. Now, executives on the call giving a bit more color on the consumer, saying March saw a bit of softening around the time of the Iran conflict starting, and some restaurant openings will be delayed in the region for that reason. Trends have since improved in April, the company marking a return of double protein as their success metric. And still, Chipotle wants to remain cautious on their outlook, given the dynamic of the consumer environment right now, Melissa. So the call, again, still ongoing, but some signs of improvement for the Chipotle.

22:28Tim Seymour:Chipotle. I know you're a big fan of the double protein, Tim. Sure. And the chicken pastore back. I mean, there's good times.

22:35Karen Finerman:And also my neighborhood store actually staying open till 11 o 'clock like they're supposed to and having all the ingredients. But it gets back to evaluation story. This is starting to get kind of interesting. This is a stock that also the chart, maybe Charter's got a view on this. But I look at a 28 multiple on a trailing on a forward basis. And when Brandon talks about the organic growth coming from new store openings, that was part of the growth story for a long time. It was not necessarily check sizes, et cetera. So I think the worst is over here, and I think it's time to nibble.

23:05Tim Seymour:I mean, to your point, historically low valuation. But the knock is that they were opening stores a lot to drive it, except that we weren't seeing it in the revenue. I mean, it was not speeding up as quickly as before. It's not a growth story anymore.

23:17Melissa Lee:It's not a growth story anymore, and that's reflected in the stock over the last year. However, you can re-inflect a little bit. I think you're seeing it in the comps as Brendan mentioned. I mean, you're getting cops a point half a percent. The street was looking for negative 0.7 percent. So that's a good sign. You know the other good sign? People are looking for real deterioration in margins. Year over year, you got it, but it wasn't as bad as the street was looking for. I think they came in at close to 24 percent. So I'm with Tim. And in terms of the technicals, you know, we traded down to the November lows, seemingly held and bouncing now.

23:46Melissa Lee:I think you can own CMG. Well, I mean, if I were writing the headlines, I would say that coming into the print, Chipotle was down 53 percent from its high of$70 two years ago. And tomorrow morning, if it gaps up to where it's indicated, it'll be down only 50 percent from its high. I mean, it's like. Sounds like some twos, people. Maybe worse. Maybe worse. Maybe worse. I mean, you know, come on. It's a good thing he's not a headline writer, though. I mean, that's a dour headline. And it's long. It's really long. It's not very pithy. You know what it does, Mel? That headline? It sucks. Sort of like the burrito company.

24:24Tim Seymour:All right. Anyway, Brandon, thanks. Coming up, the headlines from today's Fed decision. What could be Chair Powell's last meeting and how his successor could shake up the central bank? You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market Side in Times Square. Back right after this.

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25:44Melissa Lee:back. Henry Joe's hot chicken and wings. If you know, you Joe. At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy Talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

26:20Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing mixed today. The Dow falling nearly 300 points. Now on a five-day losing streak. It's longest since October. The S &P and Nasdaq virtually unchanged. WTI crude jumping 7%, settling above$100 a barrel for the first time since April 7th. And interest rates rising across the board with the yield on the 10-year treasuries coming above 4.4 percent for the first time this month. Shares of Carvana, meantime, higher after topping earnings and revenue estimates. The company posting a 40 percent jump in vehicle sales from a year ago. Well, the Fed holding interest rates steady but seeing the highest level of descent since 1992 with four members taking issue with parts of the decision.

26:59Tim Seymour:It is expected to be his last meeting as Fed chair, but Jerome Powell told reporters he is staying on. the board as a governor after his term ends. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson just responding on Fox News saying it is highly unusual what former chair, soon to be former Fed chair, Powell did. And Larry, to be clear, the last time a Fed chair stayed on the board, it was at the request of the president. And one thing I can promise you, President Trump did not request Jay Powell to stay. I think it's highly unusual for someone who says he's an institutionalist and cares about norms at the Fed. This is a violation of all Federal Reserve norms.

27:34Tim Seymour:And I think it's an insult to Kevin Warsh, Mickey Bowman and Chris Waller. For more, let's bring in CNBC contributor David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jeffries. David, great to have you with us. Good to be here, Melissa. How does this set the stage for Kevin Warsh, given the most divisive meeting since 1992 and Powell staying on the board? I mean, it's a message, right? It's a message to Kevin. I don't think it's a pleasant one, but I think Secretary Besson said it very well. This is outside the norms. This is, in all likelihood, a political decision that is going to keep the board from falling into majority hands of the president.

28:18And I think it was actually even more aggressively against Kevin. I would go further than the secretary and say that, you know, they're almost I almost felt like at one point during the press conference that, you know, I felt like Jay was sticking around to be like the hall monitor and make sure that the chair builds consensus as is part of the norms of building consensus. And if he didn't, that Jay would be there to kind of push it back in line. I found that all very I just think it's troubling. I don't understand why there's this political decision making. But, you know, I get it. I guess I get it.

28:58I guess I get the political side of it. But it is a political decision, and I think we should see it as that.

29:03Tim Seymour:Well, I mean, to be fair, what is outside all norms is trying to remove a Fed governor, taking them to court, investigating a Fed chair. I mean, all of it is outside. Regardless of where you stand on the political divide, all of it is out of the norm. But at the end of the day, we're now pricing out completely Fed cuts. Where do you see the first cut able to happen, likely to happen, possibly? Let me put it this way. I actually think we're still likely to get a cut by the end of the year. I think Kevin could make a pretty sound and cogent case from the supply side for rate cuts, as well as the trading off of balance sheet for rate cuts.

29:43But that's beside the point in a sense, because what we really want to get the answer to is what does it mean for broader markets? And here's a fact. Since this war started, we've priced out two rate cuts and we've seen energy prices go up almost$50 from 60 and change to almost 110 today. So 45, 50 bucks. We have seen the stock market rally four or five percent in that time period. That's an incredible statement. So we've taken out two rate cuts and we've seen the energy complex rise 60 percent in price and the market hasn't skipped a beat. Imagine where we would be if this energy story had never happened, if Iran never happened.

30:26I think we'd be up 10 or 15 percent for the year, if not more. So I think the real story is that we don't need the rate cuts. We've got an incredible momentum. We've got productivity. We've got clarity on the tax side. We've got all sorts of drivers from a business friendly environment that are just making returns on capital earnings, profits and growth for companies very, very strong. And the fact that we don't have the rate cuts now, you know, it'd be nice to have them. We could probably get a little more out of them, but it's not going to get in the way of this economy. It's not going to get in the way of the stock market.

31:03Karen Finerman:David, Tim, I agree. We do not need a rate cut and risk assets tell you that. And the wealth effect will then take that even further. But we've been having this conversation for the last week or so. Are equities right? I mean, if you look at rates markets, they're telling you a different story. The equity markets always last to know. I'm just curious. We get what we see in earnings season has been extraordinary and it was expected to be extraordinary. I'm just trying to have you just reconcile that one more time. You think equity markets are making the right call? I do. And I think they're telling you something even more, that one, they don't need the rate cuts.

31:44It would be nice to have them, but they don't need them. But more importantly, if we look at the currency markets and even if we look at the long-term interest rates, I mean, 10-year note yields are, what, up 20 basis points during this whole storyline of the last two months? That's one bad day on a payroll number. And the dollar's basically flat. So I think all of your macro indicators are basically suggesting that this is not a major macroeconomic story that's going to get in the way of this stock market. And if anything, all of this makes me even more bullish because if we're able to withstand the one-two punch of the taking out of these rate cuts to actually a little more than two since the beginning of the year and this $45 rise in oil prices, which doesn't look like it's going away anytime soon, that means there's just so much momentum underlying this market to be able to withstand that that it's a great storyline for when this all fades back.

32:45And when it does, which it eventually will, and we won't be talking about the Strait of Hormuz anymore, and oil will come back down and we'll be on to the next major crisis, whatever that is, that's going to try to drive stocks down but in the end won't. I think we've just got a lot of momentum that's going to take us into a pretty incredible year by the end of the year. So this just makes me so much more positive as we go into the end of 26, or toward the end of 26.

33:12Tim Seymour:David, always good to see you. Thanks.

33:14Melissa Lee:Yep, my pleasure.

33:16Tim Seymour:David Zervos of Jefferies. Guy, you agree?

33:19Melissa Lee:It's hard to argue with that. I mean, because he's right. The markets, it's been impervious to all those things. And you can make an argument. You can't do the counterfactual. But if these things didn't happen, where would we be? So I get it. I am concerned about the bond market. I don't think people are making enough out of it yet. But I think they're going to start to. When you see 10-year yields where they are on the back of, again, an administration that has been begging for the yields to be lower, you look at what's happening globally. They're not going down. And I fear that at a certain point, the market starts to pick up on that.

33:46Melissa Lee:Yeah, Jeffrey Gundlach had some interesting things to say in the 3 o 'clock hour with Scott. You know, he thinks that, again, you just said that we're pricing out cuts, right? And if you look at the stock market and say, look, we've got pretty easy financial conditions, right, in the face of what's going on with energy costs and the like here. But he thinks you're tipping over towards rate hikes. And when you think about that, I mean, I don't even think a 25-base point hike is going to change anything that's going on in the stock market or the economy, for that matter. But you will see a drag on economic growth the longer that you see energy prices here.

34:16Melissa Lee:And then if there's any other bottlenecks as it relates to supply chains, then you're going to have inflationary pressures and you're going to be thinking about multiple hikes rather than multiple cuts.

34:25Tim Seymour:On the 10-year yield, Carter, are we still within firmly the channel? Yeah, we're just stuck there. Obviously, today, you know, it's always tempting to, you know, it's up today. Maybe here's the time. It's got to do it. But we just we're stuck. It's been a very benign rate environment. It's one of the things the equity market has liked so much. Coming up, it is not just big tech reporting results and numbers and details out of Ford's latest quarter and how our traders are steering into that auto trade. Fast Money is back in tune.

34:58Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money and Earnings Alert on Qualcomm. Shares turning sharply higher after being down about 7 % immediately after the report. They're up 14.5 % right now. The turn coming after the semi-company said it is shipping data center chips to a hyperscaler, though the CEO told our Christina Parts Nevelis he wouldn't give details on which one until the investor day on June 24th. It's interesting that we see all of these companies. They get double-digit percent increases by just sprinkling in a little data center magic here. We saw this with Texan as well. These boring chip companies that have now got a little sexy outfit to wear.

35:36Karen Finerman:Yeah. That's quite a metaphor.

35:39Melissa Lee:I mean, I won't go there because I'm not really sure what Tim's talking about. But sometimes you can be right for the wrong reasons. And we talked about Qualcomm on this television show earlier in the week. And I think collectively we said this is a name that looks interesting. Now, the quarter wasn't great. Let's be clear. I think if those comments weren't made, you'd probably see the stock lower. But, you know, sometimes it's better lucky than good. And I think that's what we're seeing here in Qualcomm. But I think the momentum continues. Yeah, NXPI, which was the end in my gen AI last year.

36:07Melissa Lee:Oh, right. Yeah, you know I love that game. That stock was up 20-some percent because they said data center 19 times. It's low single-digit percentage of the revenue. I mean, this is where you realize things are getting really silly. Forget what's going on in memory. Those guys are getting double, triple orders, and they're beating and raising. This is not that. Texan and NXPI and this is not that. It feels very exhaustive. There are different kinds of gaps. There are breakaway gaps, runaway. There are also exhaustion gaps. You can't all just gap up and find new levels.

36:33Karen Finerman:But, you know, I look at some of the headlines in the after hours and, you know, the CFOs out there talking about how auto is going to grow 50 percent year on year in Q3. Many markets are strong. That's incredible. And again, if you look at what's going on in the auto world, the tailwind and the secular dynamic for companies like Qualcomm is the car's never been smarter, Guy.

36:56Melissa Lee:Well, you know, it's funny about that.

36:58Karen Finerman:Was your Camaro smart?

37:00Melissa Lee:You're saying that to be derogatory, and I admire that. But, you know, those 67, 68 Camaros, those muscle cars, as Mel will tell you, beautiful cars. I'm partial to the 67 GTO, Melissa, before the Indoor bumper.

37:12Tim Seymour:We have a tight show tonight. Have you noticed a lot of news flow here? Another check on the other big tech movers tonight. Amazon just turning positive in the last few minutes. Let's bring in Deepwater Imagine partner, Gene Munster, who has been dialed into all the calls. Gene, good to see you. Thank goodness you're joining us. What's up with Amazon here turning higher? Well, I think they're giving some confidence that revenue growth is going to sustain a little bit better than expected, just in terms of their ability to capitalize this agentic search piece. So I think that that's helped. They've also been giving a little bit more just clarity in terms of what agentic commerce means.

37:50So I think that's probably the piece on Amazon. And I think that that's good. But the bigger picture, we've really learned a meaningful update in terms of what's going on with AI in terms of how early we are. And I think it's been a resounding indication that we still have a long ways to go here, Mel. And if I may just kind of hit, Brian and I and our team have been kind of just plowing through all these, the calls and the data points here, just kind of articulate or frame in what is important that's happened so far. and this concept around what's going on in, I mean, the simple takeaways were early in AI and what's going on with the CapEx spend.

38:32We've seen Meta now guiding 93 % CapEx growth. Previously, they were at 78%. That's where the street was at for calendar 26. And Google is saying that next year will be up substantially from this year. Of course, the street was looking for 10 % growth. That number could be 20 or 30%. That data point right there about Google, what they said about 2027. It's probably the only 2027 data point we're going to get. That data point is probably going to be the most impactful takeaway or the most important data point of all the earnings tonight. And specifically, it really gives investors a sense what that CapEx looks like for the rest of the mega cap.

39:11Those companies were expecting about 10 % or analysts were expecting about 10 % growth for next year. The one liner here, Melissa, is that it looks like CapEx for next year, streets at 10 percent right now for the big companies. It's probably going to be 25 percent when things are said and done still very early in what's going on in AI.

39:33Tim Seymour:I mean, obviously, you're on to talk about the big cap tech stocks that are reported tonight, but to me, that points to sort of the picks and shovel side of the business having a definite, I mean, for all you can say about how astronomical or exponential parabolic the moves are and some of the memory chips and all that. I mean, if you're saying that CapEx is going to increase by that much in 2027, should we expect more for the stocks? I think we definitely should. There is going to be a disconnect between the raise in expectations and how these stocks are going to react. It is very much a positive.

40:09But we saw this a year ago, is at this point a year ago, when we were looking at 2026, the street was looking for 15 percent growth for CapEx. This is for 2026. It looks like it's going to come in close to 70%, which is a similar number as 2025. I mean, just remarkable growth this year. But of course, a lot of these stocks have done well, but not that well relative to this massive increase we're seeing this year. And of course, the reason is that this belief that eventually we're going to have some big deceleration, the law of large numbers are going to catch up, that's not going to go away. That will still dog many of these companies.

40:43And so to answer your question, Melissa, yes, a lot of these smaller companies, they're going to be meaningful beneficiaries. We own a lot of them and feel good that those stocks, their E is going to go up. As far as the multiple, it should see a little bit of expansion, but this wall of worry is just going to get kicked to 2028.

41:03Tim Seymour:Should Meta be punished to the extent that it is being punished for spending money on CapEx? I don't get it. It's just a scratch. There's two kind of issues I think with Meta. One was the CapEx, again 93 % growth versus 78 % for the street for 2026. But the part that is a mystery to me is that Google talks about their CapEx being materially higher and the stock really doesn't do much in after hours, just 30 minutes ago. But somehow investors just don't feel that same comfort, even though Meta has shown, I mean this is remarkable, in the summer in June of 2025 or September of 2025, so it wasn't that long ago, Their advertising business for Meta was up 10%.

41:49It has accelerated to 30 % here more recently in the 33%, I believe, in the March quarter. So they've shown that big capex can deliver higher revenue growth rates. And it is a mystery to me. I don't think I missed anything. I don't understand fully why investors seem to have more of a skeptical view, perhaps because they don't have a cloud business that, you know, the other hyperscalers have that can more directly benefit from some of that capex, that might be the reason behind it.

42:19Tim Seymour:All right, Gene, got to let you go. Thank you. Thank you. Gene Munster. Yeah. We should remind everybody that the Microsoft conference call kicked off, you know, 16 minutes ago. So we're listening very carefully to it for any sort of developments, but the stock is still down 2.7 % right now. We've had some time to digest now.

42:37Karen Finerman:How are you feeling? Well, I just get back to Amazon. Google is no question. And we saw the stock turn a little bit. But I just think with Amazon, it's a combination of this was a very clean quarter. It was very clear on the beat. AWS, very impressive. Their own chip business is growing astronomically. It's a 20 billion run rate. The valuation isn't expensive. And as we know, they have the ability to turn on the operating income. It's cheap. It's cheap relative to peers.

43:05Melissa Lee:Yeah, and I'll be consistent. I think that's what we said right after we reported. So I think this move to the upside of Amazon makes sense. And Gene was a little perplexed by Facebook. I agree with that. I think Facebook, you're buying the weakness, and it's now meta as opposed to FB. You know Google's market cap is greater than that of Apple? I was thinking about that. I mean, I haven't seen that. I mean, Apple was, like, number one forever, and then NVIDIA came along, and then Microsoft took it for a little bit, and now it's Google. And it's just interesting to see, like, the changing of the guards here.

43:34Melissa Lee:And, you know, Apple, to me, looks very interesting tomorrow because their CapEx is going to be up, you know, 5 percent or something like that sequentially in the year of year. It's like flat ish or something like that. So that's the one when you think about all this CapEx we've talked about, what sort of leverage do they get off what all these guys are building on?

43:52Tim Seymour:Another earnings alert here from Ford shares of the automaker well off highs even after a big earnings beat. Our fellow Bo is all over that call. He joins us now with the details. Hi, Phil. Hi, Melissa. So we're about 45 minutes into that call. Let's go over the numbers for the fourth quarter for Ford. 66 cents a share is what the company earned in the first quarter. We are not doing a comparison because we're pretty certain that the analysts were not factoring in a key component of that 66 cents, which we'll explain in a second. The revenue came in$39.82 billion versus$38.82 billion was the estimate.

44:26Here's the component the analysts weren't factoring in. And Ford is factoring into its first quarter results and expected$1.3 billion in tariff relief as they apply to that to the government program for a refund. They're not putting that in the free cash flow because they're not sure when that will actually happen. In terms of the results before for the three divisions at Ford, there you see what we saw from the traditional ICE model business at$1.94 billion. Commercial$1.7 billion. And EVs continue to lose money. They're going to lose about$4 to$5 billion in EVs or$4 to$4.5 billion this year.

45:01Then there's the guidance. And this is getting a fair number of questions on the conference call. They're going to be seeing an increase in their commodity costs, another$1 billion. Most of this because of aluminum. The Novellas plant is expected to come back online. In fact, they're going to be doing a firing up of the hot mill there in May. That will help as they move through the year. Still, there's some shortages of aluminum around the world. For 26, they have increased their profit from$8 billion to$10 billion, up to$8.5 billion to$10.5 billion, with free cash flow of$5 billion to$6 billion.

45:36One last thing, they are reiterating that their next-generation EVs, Melissa, are still on track to come out next year. Melissa, I'll send it back to you.

45:44Tim Seymour:Phil, thanks. Phil LeBeau. What do you make of this, particularly in comparison to GM, which we got yesterday?

45:50Karen Finerman:Well, I think they're talking more about commodity costs than GM did, And that's interesting because it's hard to believe it's not something that's going to hit everyone. I do think the free cash flow is way impressive. I do think that we knew about this tax benefit because GM's was bigger. I think we know it eight times forward. It's not dirt cheap relative to itself, but it's attractive. I think we believe this company is on the right path to being run. I still think GM is the buy of the two. Would you rather? Carter, chart version. They're pretty darn similar. For me, both are in the pair of twos category, so I wouldn't say there's better things to do.

46:27Tim Seymour:So neither. Neither. Two pairs of twos.

46:30Melissa Lee:Tim made fun of me, which is his want to do, but specifically about a 40-year chart that I asked for. Yes. Well, let's pull up a 40-year chart of Ford. Oh, boy. Because if you go back 40 years, Tim Seymour. Yeah, same price. And people do. Thank you, Carter. Thank you, Carter. You will notice, Melissa Lee, it's the same price. Legit the same price. Right. So adjusted for inflation is about 95 % of the value. All you need to know, the more you know.

46:54Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, a slew of big movers in today's regular session catching our eyes, too. The headlines on Bloom Energy, Intel, and more. More Fast Money in two.

47:12Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. There were a bunch of stock movers outside the MAG-7 that captured our attention today. Bloom Energy having its best day since November 2024, up over 27 percent after beating earnings expectations and raising guidance. That stock has doubled just this month. Intel also continuing its rally. Those shares up 12 percent today, setting another all time high. The stock has rallied more than 40 percent since reporting earnings just last Thursday. And on the downside, GE Healthcare dropping 13 percent after missing estimates and cutting full year guidance this morning. Carter, I think the key here, well, the moves higher.

47:48Tim Seymour:Can they continue? I know. It's quite with a sand disc and all this. But again, I have to repeat, but it is such a testament to respecting price. Meaning, think about it. BE was strong, and it got stronger. G-Healthcare was weak, and it got weaker. Momentum, relative strength, price-finding correlation. These are key parts of making good decisions when it comes to investing. But to your question, the extended ones, the sand desks and things, it's quite remarkable. All things come to an end. Hard to time that. We know what happened to silver. We know what happened to Bitcoin. This too will end.

48:23But right now, the momentum is hard to fight.

48:25Melissa Lee:Smart thing to say in bloom is to pull the ripcord here. But I got to tell you, given their guidance and given their EPS growth, the valuation, I mean, it's not ridiculous. It's expensive, but not ridiculous given their growth. So traded 18 million shares today, typically trades 10. I don't think you've seen the buy side capitulation yet.

48:42Karen Finerman:You know, with Intel, they're also doing some other interesting things on the capital market side. They filed a shelf. They're raising six and a half billion in debt. It's an interesting time for them to be going to market and buttressing this balance sheet.

48:54Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.

49:24Melissa Lee:We'll be right back. They have figured it out. I like Walmart, by the way, in case anybody cares. They figured it out. You know what, Mel? They figured it out.

49:34Tim Seymour:Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money. Jim Cramer starts right now.

49:43All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

50:10To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.

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From the publisher

A powerhouse earnings palooza… with Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon all reporting results. The details from the Mag7 reports, plus the numbers from Qualcomm, Ford, and Chipotle’s quarters. And if all the earnings weren’t enough, a Fed decision as well. What we heard from the central bank today in what could be Chair Powell’s last presser, and what to expect from his successor after clearing a key Senate hurdle on the path to a final vote.

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