Amazon Prime Day Lifts Retailers Ahead of Key Inflation Data, and the Three Stocks that One Chart Watcher Says Are Ready to Bounce 7/11/23

22:07You know, we talk about whether a sale is denied or delayed. I would think that would really be a delay, not a deny. But I had heard different, I mean, I'm sure Prime Therapeutics, they do, you know, it's a real business. So that is interesting because part of the Bulls story is you're going to be on this for life. And if a third of patients are on it for a year or less, that is kind of a big difference. We'll have to see how this plays out a little bit. Lily, I've sort of missed the last, I don't know how many points. Maybe I'll get a chance to buy it cheaper if there's a little more, I don't know, negative publicity around this.

22:42It's a long year is still a long time to be on it or, you know, however many months, given the cost. Yes, but it's about expectations about how big is this how big is this addressable market? But I mean, if you think about it, the other side of that is if it's only a year and the broader health benefits, they're not just that come from weight loss. And we've talked about that. It maybe means that there's a bigger addressable market for this stuff so that you might have someone that's not necessarily obese or even that overweight, but doing a little bit. I think when you look at Lilly, you look at the multiple.

23:13I just get back to that on a trailing basis. And I typically we don't even care. Why would we care about a trailing multiple? But it gives you some relative perspective on what this company, you know, how far it's come. And it's trading 70 times trailing. And so the presumption here is that it's a brave new world for this company. And it clearly is. They're in the two hottest parts of the market. But that is a lot of that is momentum. And I think it's still a lot of unknown. Yeah. Kate, you've been watching biotech. I have. So the pharma, of course, have been under pressure because of the risk off, you know, sort of nature of those stocks typically.

23:45So that hasn't helped the likes of Lilly. But now, finally, we're starting to see some signs of life in biotech. And this is a brand new development. In fact, they looked lower just very recently. But just yesterday, they had one of their best days since April and May, depending on the benchmark. If we look at XBI and ETF in the space, it also has that kind of shape of a basing phase with a higher low. It doesn't yet have a breakout, but we have some short-term oversold indications there that are pretty widespread. And with just that one up day, it makes the charts feel better. So I'd be on sort of bracing for some breakouts there as positive catalysts.

24:21Amgen's had a pretty significant sell-off. We saw the sell-off in Eli Lilly in December. It had probably a$40,$50 sell-off. But you don't run from too far from you. If this was the only drug they had, there's a concern. Obviously, that's not the situation. Valuation is a concern, so it's so first, ask questions later. But Amgen, if we could throw up a chart real quick, that's had a really significant drop down to levels. It theoretically should be support into their earnings release, I think, in early August. So to Katie's point about biotech, if you want to get a little granular, I think Amgen's pretty cool here.

24:51Coming up live from Sun Valley, Idaho, the head of IAC, Joey Levin, will join us for our first on interview. What he says is in store for the digital ad market, that is next. Plus, overruled a major update in the Microsoft Activision saga, what the decision means for that deal when Fast Money returns. Get your trades to go with the Fast Money podcast. Catch us anytime, anywhere. Follow today on your favorite podcasting app. We're back right after this.

25:25Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks. Closing your session highs as investors await tomorrow's CPI report in the kickoff to earnings season. The Dow jumping more than 300 points. The S &P and Nasdaq both up about a half a percent. Shares of Boeing jumping after announcing June deliveries. The plane maker handing over 60 aircraft and racking up hundreds of new orders with Air India. That stock is now up 15 percent this year. and shares of Roku and Shopify both streaming higher. After announcing a partnership, Roku users will be able to buy products directly through their TVs from Shopify merchants.

25:55Now to the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference, where media execs like Disney's Bob Iger, Paramount CEO Bob Backish, and more are gathering this week. CNBC's Julia Borson is there now, sitting down with IAC CEO Joey Levin. Julia, take it away. Thanks so much, Melissa. Joey, thanks so much for joining us, kicking off the Sun Valley Conference with this interview. you. We really appreciate it. My pleasure. So we know that AI is going to be a huge focus of the conference this year. We just saw Sam Altman who came in. We know there can be some panels addressing this topic. Your chair, the chair of IAC, Barry Diller, has spoken out against AI, saying it is bad for publishers such as IAC's Meredith.

26:32Talk to us about your perspective on AI and what it means for your business. Yeah, there's lots of great things that are going to happen with AI. One of them is not a positive impact on journalism, at least not today, the way it's organized and the way they're presenting information. When you look at these interfaces, search was originally designed to find the best of the internet, and these LLMs or GAI are designed to steal the best of the internet, and so they're going to have to figure out how to make the UI work in a way that rewards content creators, rewards journalism, and rewards people who exist on the open internet.

27:08So there's been some talk of the potential for IAC to be part of a coalition of publishers to fight this impact of AI and try to set some sort of ground rules. What are you working on right now? We're talking to everybody, as you'd imagine, and a lot of people share the same thoughts and same concerns and trying to figure out the best path forward. I mean, wrangling a big group of people together on common goals is always challenging, but I do think people are motivated to make sure that the journalism survives and thrives in this environment. AI is certainly front of mind for regulators right now.

27:43What kind of regulation would you like to see? I think there needs to be a framework, as there has been in other contexts, for rewarding the creators of content and making sure that there's an incentive system that continues to allow people who create content, like a copyright system, and that needs some updates, and that needs a system of payment that works for everybody. Beyond the dot-meredith business, IAC is a very broad conglomerate. You have Care.com, you have Angie's List, you have an investment in MGM, not Angie's, I should just call it Angie, it's not Angie's List anymore. How do you see AI as a tool to improve those businesses?

28:22Yeah, the ability to find information, and in particular, like the one right answer, is, I think, very, very useful in these tools. The issue is when there isn't one right answer and when there's many answers and you want many perspectives and you don't want a sort of singular, monolithic response. You want a host of responses that reflect tastes, reflect demographics, reflect different desires of different users. And that is what we need to see out of journalism. on the other businesses, helping use these tools to get to the one right answer when there is one right answer, I think is really helpful.

29:04Like helping customer service deliver answers to customers or helping our engineers find the right piece of code or things like that, I think is really helpful. Another timely topic here in Sun Valley is Amazon Prime Day. It's happening now, and IAC Properties are a big partner of Amazon. What's your outlook for spending this Amazon Prime Day, and what's your sense of consumer spending in general right now? Yeah, consumer spending still looks very good from what we can see, and we're really optimistic about Prime Day. We're a big partner for Amazon, and we drive just generally a lot of commerce.

29:39I think there's over a billion dollars of commerce that flows directly through our platform, and that part of the business has been very strong in terms of consumer spending, and everywhere that we can see consumer spending seems to be pretty healthy right now. If consumer spending is healthy, what about the advertising market? We're still hearing about weakness. What are you seeing at your properties? Yeah, it's still a strange juxtaposition because you'd think that that would pair with a good ad market, but the ad market is still weak. I would say weak relative to recent history, but stable, meaning it doesn't seem to be getting worse right now.

30:11Who knows as things change in the economy, but right now it's sort of what our team has referred to as stable weakness, I think, seems to be the tune. Stable weakness. We'll remember that one. Another topic that is front of mind, because you've spoken out so many times against Google, is the actions that Google and Meta are taking in Canada and the decision to block links from being shared because of some Canadian regulations about compensating publishers. What's your take on those moves from these tech behemoths called the digital duopoly? And what do you think that means going forward about the way they're going to be handling the sharing of content and how that might impact revenue?

30:48I really hope they can work it out. I think it's a cowardly move to pull the content off the platforms. I have to imagine that there's a system that these companies, Google and Meta are fantastic companies. They're incredibly well-run, strong, powerful companies and they ought, I would think, ought to be able to figure out a way to make that work for all constituents. I would hope so, but I think that pulling their content would be an unfortunate and sort of cowardly outcome in that. Melissa, you want to jump in here? Yeah, Joey, going back to the health of the overall ad market, how quickly would you see advertisers turn the dial down or turn off the switch when it comes to buying advertising?

31:29I mean, if the economy turns quickly and we see the long and lagged effects of the Fed tightening, you know, quickly, will we see that in results very quickly? It can happen very quickly. I mean, when we look to last year, It was around this time, like late Q2, that sort of people stopped spending, advertisers stopped spending very quickly. And so that can, yes, is the short answer. It can happen quickly. But, you know, we don't see that happening. But, you know, anything's possible. Well, we're going to have to leave it there. We'll let you get back to the conference. But Joey Levin, CEO of IAC, thanks so much for joining us today to talk ad spending, consumer spending, Amazon Prime, and so much more.

32:09Melissa, back over to you. Thank you. All right, Julia, thanks so much. And Joey, our thanks to you as well. what do we think of the digital ad market well let's talk about IAC real quick I'm sorry quickly I mean look at this stock first of all Investopedia Caleb Silver yep they own I think I'm pretty sure IAC owns them it's cheap here and if you look at this stock has gotten crushed but now it has this sort of again we talked about rounding bottoms and bearish to bullish formations this happens to be one of them if they can start to integrate these brands better which they seemingly on the custom I'm doing this stock is just too cheap at current levels.

32:41How does that chart look to you? It's surprising to me that it's cheap because you just have this very big up move and fresh breakout, sort of a higher high, higher low setup. So it's quite attractive and it does follow a turnaround. So it's in bidding with that theme. Well, it's sometimes a holding company or a conglomerate. It's not a holding company, but trades at a discount. And I think that's kind of what's going on here. And I think people don't really know what to do with some of the pieces. Meanwhile, you know, dot dash is growing pretty quickly. And there's a view that there's economies of scale here.

33:11So on valuation, there's no question. If you look at an EBITDA multiple on an EPS basis, it's hard to find. Ahead on fast, we're going to go off the charts looking for some names to bounce higher this summer. Grab your pencil and paper because we've got a breakout list coming your way. But first, speaking of breakout, check out shares of Activision Blizzard today. Why is this gamer name surging higher? We've got some answers next.

33:38Welcome back to Fast Money. Some major deal news today. A federal judge in San Francisco denied the FTC's bid to stop Microsoft's$68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard. This is a big step forward, but still the deal has to clear legal hurdles in the U.K. before it can actually go through. Karen, you're watching this. Does it matter to Microsoft? Which part? Does the deal matter? Yeah, I mean, like at this point, Microsoft is all juiced on AI. And it's not necessarily about gaming or selling consoles or anything like, I mean, it's an important part of the business. It's not moving the story in the short term.

34:15But they're thinking about this could be an important part of their business. One day, the AI magic won't be there anymore. And so to continue to develop the parts of their business that they can, this makes sense. And so I think the broader implication is the FTC or antitrust has swung so far. Yeah. And this is really kind of a slap in the face. We've had a couple. There was the Time Warner deal to say, you know what, you're just kind of out of control. And so for all of the big tech companies, the idea of doing a merger like this, I mean, they tested it. I'm surprised they're going to win, which seems like they are.

34:51They'll cut a deal with the UK. Maybe deals are back on the table for them. Yeah, which opens the gates to what potentially? Well, Tim's going to probably say this. Electronic Arts is on the verge of making you all time. It is. Apparently it is. As one would say. You know, I don't think it's all that expensive, given its history and given where some of the valuations. So Electronic Arts, EA, I believe, is still the symbol. I think that could trade higher from here, too. Yeah, I agree. In fact, EA has been dead money and lost money for five years. And the valuation keeps kind of getting better, but the growth hasn't been there.

35:24At times, we've thought this was the answer within the media space because the interactivity of what's going on, except for these media companies can't afford it. I mean, that's the part of this. I mean, it's a Microsoft or it's an Amazon or it's a mega cap tech company that could swallow this up in a second for the content. And that is still something, but it's not going to be traditional media. Yeah. And now maybe it's open. So are there any holdings that you have that you would like to see make an acquisition like a Meta or an Apple? Yeah, right. Meta. I think I mean, what was the deal they just had blocked and unrun?

36:00Giphy, was it a small deal, a tiny deal? But maybe, you know, there's going to be a land grab for AI products. And I think that's going to be where they're going to look. All right. One trader, one big in Activision's options today. Mike Coe's got the action there. Mike. Yeah, the merger ARBs are active in the options of Activision, and they have been over the course of the last month or so. But it did trade more than seven times its average daily volume. Today was the third busiest stock overall. And the trade that really stuck out to me was a purchase of 2000 of the 8590 call spreads that expire at the end of this week.

36:33They paid$1.20 for those, but they did so 10 minutes before the news hit the tape. So this thing was$600 ,000 to the good in just an hour after the trader purchased it. And to Guy's point, I want to say Electronic Arts also saw more than three times its average daily call volume. So it seems some options traders agree with him on that one. You said 10 minutes before the news hit the tape, Mike? Seems kind of suspicious. Well, you know, David Faber was saying that, you know, they might expect a court ruling this week. He didn't expect it today, but said Wednesday or Thursday. This trade was a bet that paid three to one if they did announce in their favor.

37:11So it could just be lucky timing. It could be. Mike, thanks. Mike Coe. For more options action, tune into the full show. That's Friday, 530 p.m. Eastern time. Coming up, with the word stock in her name, we couldn't let Katie Stockton leave without giving us a few stock picks. She's got a list of names that could bounce higher. Stick around for that right after this break. More Fast Money in 2.

37:36Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks staging a big run this year, but there are still lots of names, more than 50 % off their all-time highs. And Katie Stockton is taking a look at some stocks that appear to a base and are now breaking out. So let's start with the first one here. Coinbase surging 150 % to start the year. They're still 75 % off the high it made in 2021. What do you see here? And that perspective is important because this advance comes after what was a pretty prolonged trading range. And if you look at it, you've heard of probably a head and shoulders formation. And it's really describing the sort of relationship between support and resistance.

38:11This has an inverse head and shoulders formation and a breakout above the neckline. So to me, that's very promising. We are seeing better action, as you know, from the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin itself has resistance just shy of 32 ,000. If that can get through, I think that could add extra value to that Coinbase breakout. All right. Next up, Zillow popping 10 percent today, bringing its gains for the year to 65 percent. Piper Sandler upgrading the stock to an overweight today, setting a more favorable setup for the housing trade. Still, shares are nearly 75 percent off of their all-time high made in February 2021.

38:44I think Zillow is a good representation of the high growth arena right now. If you look at, say, the RK ETF, a lot of these look very similar. So it seems to be more of a top-down move than anything else. But Zillow being a great way to play it. It bottomed in 2022, and it's just been kind of stair-stepping higher off of that low. Very gradual uptrend, but a gradual uptrend can be more sustainable. And finally, shares of Mattel jumping more than 20 % in the last three months as hype builds around Barbie's theatrical release. How could it not? Tim is very excited. How could it not? Still, the stock price is less than half of where it was a decade ago, Katie.

39:20Well, so this is a newer breakout, and it has the shape of a double bottom pattern. So this is when you have a successful test of support followed by improved momentum and seems to be around the movie. So we'll take it. It looks like a real breakout to me. Yeah. Do you you don't own Mattel? I own all three of these companies, actually. Oh, so you're happy to hear this. In Zillow's case, actually traded it pretty well because it's obviously had a tough one. Coinbase, I'm underwater. Mattel, I'm perpetually underwater. And, you know, Barbie is the savior. And again, digital presence, digital. I mean, you know, this company has yet to really transition into the modern land of a digital presence and really going with where their intellectual property is.

39:59And the new management team has promised a lot. Maybe we're getting it here. I thought of you, Karen, when I heard about the Zillow upgrade. Yes. Zillow, Zillow, which was the Z in my zombie from last year, which with an emphasis on zombie, which I still own. But unfortunately, I also did last year where it was bottoming out. No, but I love the Zillow story. I think that, you know, we all know about the history of their disastrous foray into buying homes and what a terrible use of capital was and good for them for getting out. Now it's an asset like business and we're seeing a lot of sort of, I don't know, I think some floor in home building.

40:33Obviously, they're related to home sales, not necessarily new home sales without some nice rental business. I think this management team has done a good job turning this around. Tim has the rugged looks of like a G.I. Joe, but then the steely blue eyes of like a Kenda. So he's some amalgam of that, which why. I don't know what we're doing here. Which makes perfect sense. No, why? Being honest. Very kind. What did we talk about? Let's see if you're in my head. Let's just zen it real quick. Robinhood, you're right. And we talked about it beginning of June. We said, you know, this stock actually starting to look interesting.

41:04Then Mizuho said Robinhood is winning to Coinbase. Now, Coinbase has traded well. Robinhood's gone from like eight and a half bucks. I think it closed at almost$12 today, and they report earnings in a couple weeks. So this is one with the momentum has absolutely shifted. Is that a breakout, Katie, in your view? I can't picture the chart. Oh, we have it right there. But I don't know if that's okay. I wish I had my glasses on. It looks like a breakout to me. But going back to how you picked all these three stocks, it goes back to the notion, technical analysis, that you want to see a long base. What is the expression that we all like to use?

41:35The longer the base, the higher the space. Right, right. Some version of that. That's Ralph Ekenpura and Luis Yamada, their credit. And it's true. I mean, it gives it a chance to undergo accumulation. So typically when they move sideways, you'll start to see in the momentum gauges, higher lows form, and that's your accumulation. It sets it up when sentiment does shift from a top-down perspective like it has recently. That's where you get the breakouts. All right. Well, I was just going to say, I mean, Luis Yamada is one of the greats. We're fortunate to be able to bring people on this show who are legends in what they do.

42:08and in terms of technical trading. And as a woman on Wall Street, she was a pioneer, and good for her. Absolutely. I know she's watching. She is. She might be. Remember before, like an hour ago, you said people eating dinner? That's the least. No doubt about it. Why would you say that? Because I know. She's having dinner and she's like at an IHOP or something watching. I'm sure that's where she is. Up next, Final Trade.

42:37it's time for the final trades let's go around the horn tim seymour great having katie here today and talking charts um the chart i'm following is interesting because for a while there was really breaking out but more importantly the cash flow i think is starting to break out and the airline industry should be a tell on what's going on with following business karen finerman Yes, so I think last time I was on my final trade was J.P. Morgan going into banks. Also in the same space, Morgan Stamp. Katie Stockton. I have to say Microsoft. We all saw Apple break out to a new all-time high and see upside follow-through.

43:09It feels like Microsoft wants to follow its lead and go to new highs on the back burner. By the way, great to have you here, Katie. Yes. Thank you. Great to be here. Guy. Shout out to Kim Kardashian. She's a fan. Huge fan of the show. Especially more so we've mentioned her name. Mets fans have not had a lot to cheer about out of Che this year. And last night, the koala bear really let him down, Tim. At least our guy was in the game and playing and not on the reserve list. But maybe he might have. It doesn't really matter. He was eliminated extraordinarily quickly. But I'm just saying, you know, not a lot of baseball being played out in Flushing these days.

43:41But I'll tell you what looks interesting. We mentioned biotech earlier. Amgen looks like it wants to turn as opposed to the Mets. We're going nowhere, Tim. Just get off the DL. Fast Money starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.

44:13Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash fastmoneydisclaimer.