An Economic Read From Powell, Banks… And Crypto’s Pullback Hitting Stocks 10/14/25

0:02Live in the Nasdaq market side in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Reading the tea leaves, markets closing well off the lows of the day while yields hit one month lows. What bank CEOs and Fed Chair Powell had to say about the economy and where markets head from here. And shares of Albertsons, LVMH and Domino's all posting outsized gains during the session will bring you all the headlines and all of the moves. Plus, crypto crumbles and takes a slew of related names with it. Walmart hits a new high on its partnership with ChatGPT and Alt Energy fuels up.

0:33What's behind the moves in solar and nuclear today? I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from the studio of Vietnam Aztec. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Steve Brasso, and Guy Adami. And we start off tonight with the latest economic pulse check. During this morning's earnings call, CEOs of Wells Fargo, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs all highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy but did hint at risks on the horizon. J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon saying geopolitics, tariffs, elevated asset prices, and sticky inflation are all clouding the long-term outlook. while Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called risk management imperative.

1:06In this environment, Goldman also reportedly told employees it plans to trim its workforce and slow its pace of hiring as the bank pushes further into AI for productivity. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also out with remarks today, saying the central bank is nearing the end of its balance sheet drawdown. He also said the outlook for inflation and employment has not changed much since September, keeping the prospect of two more rate cuts this year on the table. Those comments helping stocks rebound midday, though the S &P and Nasdaq still finish in negative territory. The 10-year yield briefly dipped below 4 % as investors look to safe havens, though it's now trading slightly above the 4 % mark.

1:43So what did the move signal to you amidst all this commentary about the U.S. economy being OK now, but maybe not for long? Guy. Actually, it sort of made sense to me, and I'm not pretending I knew it was coming. But J.P. Morgan, Jamie Dimon said his stock is expensive. We've talked about that. Almost three times tangible book. It is a little bit expensive. I think in the form of Wells Fargo, it's a re-rating. Wells was in the penalty box for years. They're finally starting to get out of that penalty box. Self-inflicted, by the way. So now a little more than two times tangible book, you know, maybe that's where it should be.

2:15Citibank, I think we've collectively talked about just being cheap to its peers. We thought somewhere between 102 and 105 it got there. So it all made sense. I will say that I thought the quarters across the board were very good. But I think in my opinion, and Jamie Dimon spoke to this, a lot of it might be priced in on certain metrics. But in terms of what the earnings and what the commentary is saying about the economy, I thought, in the markets, I thought that was particularly interesting during a time where we're not getting any economic data except for a CPI report due in a week or so. Well, I mean, Jamie Dimon always tends to be more conservative, more pessimistic.

2:50Yes, conservative. And this was no different. I think they're all seeing that we'll get to it more later, but they're all for their environment, their world. It's pretty good. Yeah. So to translate that to that, to more broadly, I still think that there is a sense of optimism about business. And deregulation, I think, is a lot of that, even though there's not so much clarity at the moment. I still think that backdrop is in place. Yeah. Solomon's comment was interesting, too, in terms of the markets. There's no question that there's a fair amount of investor exuberance in the markets right now, which read between the lines, I think, overvalued or, you know, fully valued.

3:30It was kind of his irrational exuberance line. But I thought he tempered that. I thought his comments of all the CEOs were the most interesting. He also said, this is a time strategically we think we can get things done. And I think that's interesting. I think it's an environment where I listen to the CEOs and maybe more importantly, I listened to the numbers and I listened to where we had actually reports of businesses that were growing. I mean, think about what we've had this year. We've had the largest LBO ever. We've had a dynamic where financing, they mentioned financing activity is increasing.

4:00We have this dynamic that we talk about seemingly every night in terms of what the A.I. build out will cost to finance. And you can be sure these banks are licking their chops. The fact of the matter that Goldman's had its most profitable year ever in the history of, you know, I would argue the most storied bank on Wall Street says a lot. So the environment, to me, I think says a lot about the economy. When I hear financing activity and I hear their core M &A business is alive and well, that tells me people are doing deals. I felt like the CEOs from the banks are more optimistic. Powell is more cautiously optimistic, which means that he's more likely to cut rates, which means that all stocks should be optimistic.

4:43So I think it's a circular event. I think the market probably goes higher, but I think we have to deal with October being sort of a head-windy month for the overall market. Yeah, I mean, the lack of jobs data and sort of the downside risk to the job market highlighted by Chair Powell as well as Jamie Dimon in his commentary. I mean, I think the question here, too, is how much can deregulation overcome and the ability to get things done, the ability to get deals done, how much can that spur the economy versus what is actually underlying, which is sort of the low hiring, low firing, stagnant nature of the jobs market right now, which could have downside.

5:19Well, a couple of things for for a dealmaker to be able to get deals done. That is right. That's very specific to them. I think they sort of look at we will get data soon. If we could just wait maybe one month more, I think we should be past this. So I'm not so concerned about that. I do think also, though, from the one big beautiful bill, the depreciation on capital expenditures is actually a very important thing and a significant driver for the economy. Look, Steve's right. I mean, Powell was cautious. He talked about it. I heard at least three times referred to the slower pace of hiring. And that's something that's significant.

5:57And it's interesting that they've really pivoted to this. We're less worried about inflation. We're much more worried about this side of the mandate. And I think they've been consistent on that now for three months. So I get back to, look, markets have shown just how nervous they are over the last three sessions. Even the intraday vault today and where we walked in when it seemingly China was pushing back on the, you know, everything's OK line of yesterday. But the VIX has been elevated. The intraday moves we've had in a number of different stocks just tells you that not only are we, as Steve said, seasonally in a place where, you know, watch out.

6:32It's just where we've come from. So I think earnings season couldn't have come, you know, in a better time in where the market sits. Because I think the numbers we got today from banks tell you that those that are feeding the broader economy are doing quite well. So we had some interesting intraday moves in some, you know, individual stocks. But on the bond market side, I mean, yes, we went below 4%, which is the headline. But the reality is that the band was very tight in terms of trade and yields here. We're supposed to get, I don't know if this is going to happen or not. Steve Leisman probably knows.

7:04We're supposed to get CPI, I think, next week. Somehow they'll release it. So obviously that's a data point that is important. I think for some reason Social Security payments hinge on it. So it needs to be done. Yeah, got it. So we'll see if and when. Listen, yields are going lower, in my opinion. First of all, on the Friday sell-off, it was a flight to perceived quality in the form of the bond market, which I get. Globally, bonds have been coming back in a little bit, so yields have been going slightly lower, which I guess is somewhat encouraging. But it's the question. I mean, the yield's going down because things are slowing down.

7:33I think that's the case. If things are slowing down, then you shouldn't be paying a premium for a stock market. Carter Braxton Worth of Worth Charting put out a note intraday today saying continue to buy. Treasuries play yields for the downside here. Yeah, I mean, Guy touched on it. You have safe haven trade. You have China trade geopolitically. Things are getting things are heated up. Then they cooled off a little bit. But if you think about it, Powell is going to be out of that seat in May. Is it May or March? May. It's something with March. But it could be. So so the market is telling you that they're looking for lower rates.

8:07And I think they're pricing it with the 10 year right now. I don't know. I there's a lot of cross currents here. Right. Right. We have big deficits. We have this big question mark at the Supreme Court about the tariffs. And if that were to if they were to rule that Trump did not have the ability to levy tariffs, levy tariffs, then that, well, that's sort of deficit negative. And that's not good for bonds. But so I don't know. In the short term, I'm not so focused on where the tenure is. I would like to see rates lower for housing now. One last thing. Sorry. The Fed balance sheet. If that comes into the conversation, then that's going to put some pressure on yields as well.

8:47For more on the move in rates, let's bring in Subhadra Rajafa, Societe Generale's head of research. I wanted to get your title right. Subhadra, great to see you. Great to see you, too. So where are rates heading at this point? We're definitely in the low end of the range. I think it'll be interesting, especially today, we broke through that 4 percent level, which I'm watching. for not for what reason is the important question, right? Because in some respects, as you guys were discussing earlier, you're seeing equities perform well, but it's been volatile in the last two or three sessions. Gold is rising quite dramatically.

9:23So there is that safe haven bid. If investors are flocking to Treasuries because they're concerned about the broader macroeconomic backdrop, then that's a very different signal than if it was just a buy everything rally where they're buying equities, they're buying gold, they're buying bonds. And there's just a lot of cash in the system. Right. I wanted to touch on this because stocks don't seem to care about this and a lot of investors seem to want to look through it. But the impact of the government shutdown, a shutdown of this length, Subhadra, at what point do you start getting concerned that this is actually impacting the economy and therefore the markets that you track?

9:58I'm concerned now. I thought that the October 15th deadline would be when you would get some sort of a deal because that's when the payments go out to the military. But we've found a workaround. So this looks like it's going to go on for a lot longer than people had anticipated just because people are not coming, you know, both sides are not coming together to reach some sort of an agreement. So that to me is a concern because the longer it drags on, the impact on GDP is going to be somewhere between 0.1 to 0.2 % per week. So that just kind of adds up. A lot of that, you know, you get back when the workers are back in their jobs.

10:36But it's still kind of an uncertain time. So let me ask you about the dollar and the strength in bonds. I mean, the dollar's been weaker. Would it have been even more weak when you see this sort of there seems to be a bid for bonds? So I would say that the dollar versus, you know, bonds move is mostly on the back of Powell, right? I mean, we got confirmation today. saying that the Fed is on track to cut rates maybe once or twice this year. I think October is very much, you know, priced in and it's going to be delivered. And we have to see if they do continue to cut nearly five times more by the end of next year.

11:17You're looking at the terminal Fed funds rate going below what the Fed has at its long-run neutral rate. So that's very, very accommodative policy. So in some respects, that should mean a weaker dollar. The gold move is not a bunch of people going to Costco and buying a couple bars. There's something else going on here. What do you think the gold market's trying to tell us? You know, there is a momentum trade there as well. I think that there's just like I was mentioning earlier, there's a lot of cash on the sidelines. There's over$7 trillion in money market fund instruments. So people are trying to find places to park their cash in.

11:50Equity markets are at all time highs. So the valuations there might start getting some investors concerned. They're putting their money into bonds. They're putting their money into global equities. So I think gold is one of many avenues investors are looking to put their money to work. So let's go further with that. I mean, I read your notes. It sounds like you think investors should be allocating to money markets and cash. And that's interesting because the equity market participants will say, hey, I see$3.9 trillion in money markets that are coming to us as rates come down. Do you think it's maybe that may be the case?

12:22It may not be the case. Do you think the opposite of that? I think the opposite of that only because of the fact that money fund AUMs have been going up, you know, as money has been flowing into the equity market and equities have been making all time highs. So the idea was that, you know, a year or two ago that as when when the money starts, you know, when the equity market starts to perform after the Fed's done in hiking and when they start cutting rates, you should see money flow away from money market funds into equities. And that's not happening. Subhadra, thank you. Good to see you. Subhadra Rajapa.

12:54I think that's a great sort of exercise, right, which we revisit occasionally. So let's do it again tonight. What are we doing? $1 ,000. Oh, I thought it was would you rather. Okay, okay. I know you're getting all excited because you love that. It's everything. $1 ,000, S &P 500, or money market? For how long? Yes. Yeah, S &P 500. Six months. Six months. S &P 500. Well, you know, you're putting six months on it, but over the course, S &P goes up 10 % on average since the beginning of the S &P, since the beginning of markets. I'd always pick equity markets. I'll go to the end of the year and say money markets.

13:30If you want to do six months, a bit of a coin flip. But, you know, it feels like the way the market set up last week, where the VIX is now suggests we probably have a move higher. I'll go money markets just to be the counter. Money markets or bonds. You can't change the game before I get a chance. She can do whatever she wants. She can do whatever she wants. It's the same thing. Oh, man, this is complicated stuff. Money markets or bonds? Bonds. I think I can make more money in the bond market. You didn't tell me what bond market. I think I can make money in fixed income. Well, I'm fine in the 10-year Treasury, and I'm not too worried about U.S.

14:06term premium, so I think it's the case. But I'm still going to answer the other questions and say S &P to year end. Then I go to money markets for that first half of next year. Interesting. Let's make it for a misvalue investor. Yeah. Let's make it 12 months. Thank you. Well, I'm always long. So S &P. OK. We've got a news alert on an investment by big three automaker Stellantis. Phil Lebeau's got the details. Phil. Melissa, this is a whopper of an investment from Stellantis. So hang on, because we've got a number of headlines here and some big numbers. Overall, Stellantis plans to invest$13 billion in the United States, adding a number of vehicles to be produced at a number of plants, creating 5 ,000 new jobs.

14:49So we're going to run through this right now. Again, 13 billion is the total, 5 ,000 new jobs. There's going to be a next generation Dodge Durango that will be built at the company's plant in Detroit. Kokomo, Indiana will produce all new engines. Belvedere, Illinois, just outside Chicago. This has been contentious for some time. They wanted to shut down the plant. They were forced by the UAW in the last negotiation not to shut it down, to reopen it. When it reopens, it'll be built two new Jeep vehicles, the Cherokee and the Compass. The midsize pickup truck or the midsize truck that was going to be built there, that's moving over to Toledo, Ohio, to the facility here in Ohio.

15:25And two new vehicles will be built at the Stellantis plant in Warren, Michigan, including a range extended electric vehicle. That's a huge investment being made by Stellantis and by new CEO Antonio Filosa. We will be talking with Antonio tomorrow morning on Squawk Box. You don't want to miss what he has to say. This is a man who realizes they have to make big investments and they have to do it quickly and they have to play on their strengths. Their strengths, Jeep and Ram, two brands that have really struggled really since the passing of Sergio Marchion in 2018. And to drive this home, Melissa, listen to this stat.

16:052018, they had about 2.2 million vehicles sold here in the United States. Last year, their U.S. sales were about 1.3 million. Tells you how far Stellantis has fallen. It is now number six in sales in the U.S. Antonio Filosa is intent on turning that around. It's going to take some time, but they're making a massive investment. So, as you said, Phil,$13 billion is a lot of money. and it's a lot of capacity to be adding on. Is it a case of... Well, a lot of it is capacity that's already there, Melissa. It's already there. There's some that's being added, some that's being added, like in Belvedere, Illinois.

16:41But a lot of it is already there, just not fully utilized. I see. So eventually they're going to turn out more vehicles with this$13 billion investment, presumably, or they're going to turn out... Oh, yes. Okay. So is there demand for all these vehicles? Well, they would argue that, yes, that Jeep and Ram are two. Look, those are marquee brands. And within the United States, they both have huge drawing power. Now, you could also make an argument that Chrysler and Dodge also are brands that have brand appeal. But Jeep and Ram, that's the bread and butter for this company. And those two brands, they're not dead, but they haven't been growing over the last five years, six years.

17:23And that is front and center in terms of what Antonio Filoso wants to do. Take your two stars and make them stars. Make them bigger. And that's at the heart of this investment for$13 billion. And in terms of the tariff relief they may or may not feel because of this investment, can you give us an idea of that? Well, look, they do manufacturing in Canada and in Mexico. So, look, that's not going away. It's not like they're going to say we're bringing everything back from overseas. What they are saying is we can sell more in the United States. We have the facilities in the United States that can increase production.

18:00We can bring one like Belvedere, Illinois, back online. That would be a huge boost. Let's sink the money in here. Look, they understand what's going on here. You need to build more in the United States. The Trump administration has been saying to all automakers, we want you to build here. And Stellantis is saying, yeah, OK, we're going to do that. Yep. Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau. And again, I can't miss interview with the CEO of Stellantis tomorrow morning. In the meantime, the stock is trading higher by about 8 percent in quick measure after the release of this news. What's your take on it?

18:35I think they're trying to curry favor with the administration. It makes sense. $13 billion, not insignificant for a company. It's probably less than a$30 billion company. I don't know how long a period of time it is. The market will reward them for this. I think Moody's just downgraded them on the credit scale. I don't know if that plays into this at all. But you're going to bump into stock that is, by the way, down, I think, from$24 in the spring of last year, down about$9 earlier this year. I do think it's strategic and political. I actually thought it was going to be an open AI announcement.

19:06Seriously. I mean, that kind of pop. Yeah. Could happen. Yeah, so OpenAI is now worth like 13 GMs. And I think this is exactly what we've all said. I do think Jeep is a brand that is not surprising. I drive a Jeep. So sometimes. So it's cool. It's a cool brand. You said that, not me. But I mean, I do think that there are some core iconic brands here that will continue to run. I think the autos, not a lot is expected in these numbers. GM reports on the 20th. I think the third quarter numbers will be better than expected. And I think there's a pretty favorable mix despite the tariff dynamics. Yeah, coming from where the stock price is now, I think it's worth a look.

19:48If you look at how much GM, Ford and Stellantis lost on the EV mandates, It's they're just switching out around now and spending somewhere else. So Ford lost 12 billion in two years. GM lost six billion. This is something where it's going to be reallocated funds. I think you buy them. Coming up, earnings season kicks off with big bank results crossing the wire this morning. All the headlines from those reports next. Plus, the recent crypto crunch hitting shares of Coinbase and Robinhood, the drop over the last few days. And if the carnage will continue, don't go anywhere. Fast when he's back in two.

20:22Yeah. Welcome back to Fast Money. A clean sweep in big bank earnings today with J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citi all posting top and bottom line beats before the bell. Wells Fargo jumping more than 7 percent, Citi up almost 4 percent, JPM and Goldman were down on the day. J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon also spoke to investors about its first brand's exposure, calling it not our finest moment. It dodged losses in that name, but it just disclosed a$170 million charge-off related to Tricolor, a bankrupt auto lender. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, report tomorrow. As you mentioned, Karen, Jamie Dimon of JPM is usually more conservative.

20:59Yes. But he did say some interesting things about cockroaches and... Yes, I think he was talking about credit problems, right, where you see one cockroach, you see more. I think they're... He seems to be embarrassed by making a mistake like that. You know, you put out tons of loans, some of them don't work out. Right. Having something be fraud, that's another story. But I thought there was a lot to like in JPM. I thought, you know, the credit quality ticked up a little bit. I don't see it as anything that's a warning sign or anything like that. And I think we'll see more efficiency. I think that'll be a big theme.

21:35And, you know, I liked it. They've all run up so much going into earnings. I don't love that setup, but I thought it was good. I thought the guide for J.P. Morgan, especially on that interest income into 26, was really positive in an environment where at some point this is really a core element of the story that we want to believe. And I thought the Wells Fargo capital revision hire was a big surprise. And I think of the group, this is the one that seemingly has more room to re-rate, that along with Citi. And I thought Citi's numbers were fantastic. The margins, and again, Jane Frazier has really been turning this ship around, and it's taken some time.

22:09And by the way, we've been out in this for the year of efficiency for Citigroup is two and a half years in. Stay there. It does seem like Wells Fargo, they interviewed the CFO on Money Movers today. There's a lot to be done still in their minds. The asset cap was just lifted in June, so there's a lot of sort of runway left to go. They're big into this deregulatory environment, enabling them to do a lot more here. So they're sort of chomping at the bit for action. And that's, I think, again, we talked at the top of the show. They're getting a re-rating, and maybe rightly so. But, you know, at what point is that re-rating getting a little expensive?

22:43As I said, right here, we're probably north of two times, right at two times tangible book for Wells. So they deserve 2.3, 2.4. OK, you get there, you're talking about a stock that still has, you know, whatever, another 15 or 20 percent upside. So it's not out of the realm of possibility. I think Citi is a name we've been right about for a long time. And, you know, we said 105 is probably the level. Does that get re-rated now? I'm not sure. I still go back to Jamie Dimon's comments real quick about the cockroaches. He's right. But they're far better equipped to take that kind of a loss than a Jeffries, who had almost the entirety of that on their balance sheet, which is somewhat problematic.

23:18You know, when you look at these, J.P. Morgan was always the top and it's still the top for Karen, I'm assuming. Right. So when you look at it as J.P. Morgan and then City really shocked the world with that comeback story. And the year to date performance really reflects that. At this point, I would rather be in a Wells Fargo or a Goldman. I think JP Morgan, how long can it have the mystique of Jamie Dimon? That's probably expiring, too, right? He's going to be out of there in the next year or so. When does it lose the premium? I think it's longer than the next year or so. But you're right. It is on the horizon, whether that's three years, who knows.