Apple Reports Results… And Crude Climbs Amid Middle East Tensions 1/29/26

29 Jan 2026 · 44 min · 23 chapters

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In short

Fast Money episode covers: Apple’s earnings beat and muted stock reaction; software selloff tied to AI fears; SanDisk/Micron-style bullishness on AI-driven memory demand; United Rentals’ earnings miss; and crude oil jumping on Middle East/Iran supply-risk concerns, plus consumer/energy stock moves.

Guests/desk

Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Lori Calvacina (RBC head of U.S. Equity Strategy). Guest analysts: Steve Kovac (reporting from Apple call), Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Paul Sankey (Sankey Research), Pippa Stevens (SpaceX/Tesla/XAI rumor reporting).

Key claims

Apple beat with EPS $2.84, revenue $143.76B (+16%), iPhone double-digit growth, Services +14%, China +38% (Cook: product resonating). Stock held back by concerns about memory prices/margins sustainability and lack of AI/Siri detail. Apple guided revenue growth 13–16%, margins 48–49%; memory prices expected to rise through the year.

Notable examples

ServiceNow and Microsoft down ~10% on AI-driven uncertainty; SanDisk shares surge on demand outpacing supply and multi-year hyperscaler commitments; crude above $70/bbl; Coca-Cola breakout call; Schlumberger/Exxon/Valero discussed.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Apple's Earnings Report Analysis

0:00 to 0:22

Discussion of Apple's latest earnings, positive iPhone sales, and market reaction.

“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”

Apple's Earnings Report Analysis

1:56 to 4:26

Discussion of Apple's latest earnings, positive iPhone sales, and market reaction.

“And we start off with those big Apple earnings.”

Market Reactions and Concerns

4:27 to 6:42

Analyzing market reactions to Apple's earnings and potential issues.

“Still outstanding, which would, in theory, be answered on the conference call.”

AI Integration and Future Prospects

6:43 to 8:13

Exploring Apple's AI strategy and upcoming product expectations.

“So I think it was a point that you brought on the 4 o 'clock show about.”

Sandisk Earnings and Sector Insights

8:14 to 13:32

Reviewing Sandisk's earnings results and implications for the memory sector.

“The whole debate on the street has been whether you quit them.”

Skepticism in the Semiconductor Sector

13:33 to 14:01

Discussion about market skepticism regarding memory stocks and broader trends.

“and that's why you're seeing shares continue to stay high double digits.”

Analyzing Multi-Year Deals and Market Trends

14:01 to 18:10

Discussion on market trends and implications of multi-year deals in tech.

“So if you tell me now that they're signing multi-year deals, they're telling you that it's not cyclical.”

Concerns Over Software Stocks Amid AI Threat

18:11 to 22:22

The impact of AI on software stocks and potential overreactions in the market.

“Go buy the last Model S that they're going to sell.”

Evaluating Azure's Growth and Microsoft's Position

22:23 to 23:36

Insights into Azure's growth challenges and Microsoft's strategy adjustments.

“Just going back to Microsoft for a minute.”

Evaluating Azure's Growth and Microsoft's Position

25:46 to 26:10

Insights into Azure's growth challenges and Microsoft's strategy adjustments.

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Evaluating Azure's Growth and Microsoft's Position

26:14 to 27:06

Insights into Azure's growth challenges and Microsoft's strategy adjustments.

“Never bet against American grit or American energy.”

SpaceX and Tesla Merger Speculations

27:07 to 28:00

Discussion on potential mergers involving SpaceX, Tesla, and XAI.

“We've got a news alert on a potential deal for SpaceX.”

Evaluating Tesla's Valuation and Market Position

28:00 to 29:41

Discussion on Tesla's market strategy and the valuation of its components.

“and you see how a lot of their competitors are being valued.”

Consumer Spending Insights Post-Earnings

29:41 to 30:50

Analysis of consumer spending trends and their implications for various companies.

“But what I will tell you is worrying me just a little bit is that just about every single meeting I did in December and January, clients told me there are massive tax refunds coming.”

Consumer Spending Insights Post-Earnings

30:54 to 31:14

Analysis of consumer spending trends and their implications for various companies.

“The platform that acts like a living system, delivering the latest in data performance, security, and innovation without ever slowing you down.”

Apple's Earnings Guidance and Market Reactions

32:30 to 36:40

Detailed insights into Apple's earnings call and the market's response.

“So another quarter in a row of double digit percentage growth expected.”

Effects of Middle East Tensions on Oil Prices

36:40 to 39:52

Discussion on the implications of geopolitical tensions for oil prices and stocks.

“Jean Munster, the stock is ticking a little bit higher, up almost a percent at this point.”

Energy Market Dynamics and Analyst Insights

39:52 to 42:05

Expert analysis of current trends in the energy market and stock valuations.

“WTI settling almost 4 percent higher, while Brent rose more than 3 percent.”

Oil Market Dynamics and Stock Insights

42:05 to 43:53

Discussing the surprising demand in the oil market and stock recommendations.

“And then, of course, the kicker has been this winter that we've seen both in Europe and in the US, which is causing a lot of incremental demand.”

Coca-Cola's Potential Breakout

43:57 to 45:57

Analyzing Coca-Cola's performance and its potential for price breakout.

“The chart master couldn't be here today, but he did send us a postcard, Carter Worth or Worth Charting, saying it is time to buy Coca-Cola for a shot at a breakout to all-time highs.”

Final Trades and Stock Picks

45:58 to 46:42

Hosts share their final trade recommendations and insights on various stocks.

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Final Trades and Stock Picks

46:43 to 47:18

Hosts share their final trade recommendations and insights on various stocks.

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Final Trades and Stock Picks

47:23 to 48:50

Hosts share their final trade recommendations and insights on various stocks.

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out.

0:34Tim Seymour:It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be. So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Golden Delicious. Apple notching a big beat on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, inciting staggering iPhone demand, but shares well off their after-hours highs.

1:16Tim Seymour:What's behind this move? Plus, the software slump in the regular session. Microsoft losing nearly$360 billion in market cap. Oracle hitting eight-month lows. The IGV software ETF entering bear market territory. What drove the drop and is there any relief in sight? Plus, the R in Karen's car sinks after earnings. You remember that one, United Rentals? Royal Caribbean shares set sail in crude oil top$66 a barrel for the first time since September. How much room is left to run for this trade and what will it mean for the stocks? I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Lori Calvacina, head of U.S.

1:54Tim Seymour:Equity Strategy at RBC. And we start off with those big Apple earnings. Shares are higher by just about a percent in the after hours. The iPhone maker handily beating revenue and earnings estimates, seeing double-digit growth in iPhone sales, a sharp reversal from a year ago. The conference call kicking off just moments ago. CNBC's Steve Kovac is in Cupertino with the very latest. Steve. Yeah, Mel, that call is just getting started. And we're expecting to hear some commentary about forward-looking guidance. And also there's memory prices that have been such a discussion about margins. So I'll be back on once we get more on that.

2:28In the meantime, yes, it was a big beat on EPS coming in at$2.84. That was a healthy beat. Revenue, a big record here, up 16%, 143.76 billion. Another beat there. Services, they were up 14 % to 30.01 billion. That was mostly in line with estimates. But China, I really want to point out greater China here. It was up a whopping 38%. I have not been able to say that on an Apple earnings call for quite some time now. China is 25.53 billion revenue for the quarter. And I asked Tim Cook what was behind that, because we've seen such a slag and sluggish sales over there in China for the last several quarters here.

3:10He said, quote, I think it's a result of the product resonating with the Chinese in a huge way. We just saw a lift that was much greater than we thought we would see. And so we were surprised. but it's very product-driven, and they love the iPhone. That backs up so much of the anecdotal stuff that we've been seeing out there. Our Contessa Brewer, for example, she was out in Macau last fall and sent me a video of just packed iPhone lines at the Apple Store out there. We also talked about this new Google partnership on artificial intelligence with their Gemini system. And while Cook would not say what that financial deal looks like between these two companies, We did get into privacy and how this new partnership plays into Apple's privacy.

3:52Here's what he told me on that. We're not changing our privacy values. We still have the same architecture we announced before, which is on device plus the private cloud compute. So if you type something or use your voice to ask something, that can be done on the device. It goes to the cloud and lots of both of those kinds of queries. So basically saying it's going to work as they originally advertised, just powered by this Gemini system. Calls just getting started, guys. We're going to get that guidance and that commentary on the memory prices that I know everyone's eager. Meantime, we see the stock up here 1 % in after-hours trading mail.

4:26Tim Seymour:All right, Steve, thanks. Steve Kovach, obviously a couple of big questions that Steve had highlighted. Still outstanding, which would, in theory, be answered on the conference call. But the stock going into earnings, the bar was very low. Eight-week losing streak as we entered the week here. Tim, what do you make of the quarter so far? I thought it was a fantastic quarter. Now, the way the stocks trade in the aftermarket, very small snapshot of time. It's going to be volatile. But it kind of tells you that while we had insane demand and I mean, you know, it was really strong iPhone demand, double digit, etc.

4:54But the 17 percent revenue growth is something that the market doesn't believe is sustainable. It's fascinating because the two parts that made this a great number, both the China component and just, you know, I think the anecdotal Google stuff is stuff that we've learned in the last couple of weeks during this period where Apple's had this eight straight down week. So we know memory is fine. We know memory is fine for the March quarter. We don't know it's fine for the second half of the year, even though we assume that Apple has the ability and the pricing power, even with someone like Samsung, who's about 70 percent of their memory, to actually be able to push suppliers around a little bit in an uncertain memory environment.

5:29I think it's services and I think it's memory. Those are the two things that are holding the stock back from what otherwise I think the stock should be a lot higher. And I think it traded going into the numbers on weakness in services concerns there. I think these numbers were good.

5:42Melissa Lee:Yeah. Year over year, the China number, well, Kovac just said it was 38 percent. Last Q1 fiscal 2025 was a disaster in China. It was down like 11 percent. So you're coming off like on a comparison basis, like a really low compare. Right. So that's great. So China's come back a little bit. You know, the story for Apple, and maybe this is one of the reasons why Tim just mentioned, like, we know the things that were like pretty good there. It really comes down to what's going to happen in this June quarter as far as the release of Apple Intelligence and the upgraded Siri. And you can say they're all set up.

6:14Melissa Lee:Look at the installed base that they have. People have upgraded these phones to the latest phones. I mean, that being said, you're going to need they're going to actually have a lot of this Siri AI on the device. I mean, that is really their plan, right? It's about security and that sort of thing. So, again, it'll be really interesting because, like, for the last two years, the excitement has been an upgrade cycle with Apple Intelligence. Well, they've already gotten, It seems like the upgrade cycle here, which maybe puts them in a great position. And I don't think there's any reason to sell it.

6:41Melissa Lee:I am surprised the stock's only up 1%. I mean, look at the headlines. It is an amazing quarter. Yeah. What's your take? So I think it was a point that you brought on the 4 o 'clock show about. Closing bell overtime. Closing bell overtime, right. About Tim Cook's lack of comment on the question about memory and him wanting to answer it later in the conference call, which sort of leads one to believe maybe it's a bit of an issue. maybe. I mean, if it is for them, it has to be for everybody else, to Tim's point about who's got, you know, negotiating power. But to the upgrade cycle, I think there's still a lot of room to go in the upgrade cycle, even though it was much better than I thought it would be and much better than I think the street thought it would be.

7:21So, I mean, there's a lot to like here when you have a big revenue beat. Usually good things happen. But in so many of these, you have to listen to the call. There's so much nuance there that can change things on a dime.

7:32Tim Seymour:Yes, absolutely. And we, interesting to see the lack of reaction in Apple, maybe given the huge reaction that we're seeing across the board, Laurie. I mean, look at the swings in Meta and Microsoft and then the after our session on Sandus. And granted, this is not a blow out the numbers, blow off the doors kind of quarter for Apple. But still, it's a very muted reaction compared to what we've seen in earnings season so far. What I think is really interesting about some of these big moves we've seen in some stocks, not all of them, this is what we used to get in small cap. And people would say they had pity on us because of the wild swings.

8:01Tim Seymour:We aren't used to this in large cap. It's been a relatively recent phenomenon that we get these kind of big swings. Look, it's been a very kind of squishy, soft start to reporting season. I feel like we're finally getting to the real part of reporting season with these big mega cap names. The whole debate on the street has been whether you quit them. And it's ultimately going to be earnings that come through. Maybe at this point, what we're seeing is rotation within them. You have to pick and choose. But I kind of agree with Karen. You've got to get to the call and see what they say. Yeah. An AI strategy roadmap.

8:31Tim Seymour:That's what a lot of people want to hear, whether it is Apple intelligence, the revamp a Siri, which is supposed to be in the next couple of months or so.

8:38Melissa Lee:Listen, this is the perfect AI story now. Okay. A couple years ago, it was all on the come, right? So these guys did not spend hundreds of billions of dollars, like all the major hyperscalers, to build out, to train models, that sort of thing. So they're never going to have that sort of business. But what they do have is an installed base of 2 billion users. And they're largely consumers, right? And if you think about how open AI and how the the hyperscalers are going to monetize these businesses, it's going to be with the enterprise, right? So this might be, other than OpenAI, one of the first huge success stories as it relates to the consumer.

9:08Melissa Lee:But we got to see what they roll out. We can all agree that whatever deals they do with OpenAI or Google Gemini, they're going to be great deals. They're working on the back of this infrastructure spend. But again, you know, you guys tell me, is it a cheap stock? What sort of earnings appreciation are they going to get? What sort of margin appreciation are they going to get? The agentic layer of AI will be one on this device, and they're going to be the first ones to capture it from a consumer. What about open AI device? I don't know. Oh, you mean the threat of a device? The threat's closer now, apparently.

9:40Good luck.

9:40Melissa Lee:It's not going to be an iPhone, and people are not going to be ready for a pin or some sort of, like, little device that doesn't have a screen. I thought the announcement on the 6th with Google was the story. I mean, it was the 12th. It was two weeks ago. And I think that's the story. I think the setup here for AI, hearing that we have a revamped Siri is hardly something that gets me excited. It has to be revamped anyway.

10:02Tim Seymour:It stinks. Siri is a disaster, and Siri is listening and will probably turn my phone on just to spite me and have my ringer go off. But I think it's a case where the expectations here were so low. I still think, first of all, the inelasticity around the ASP rises. In other words, if people are spending more for an iPhone, gross margins holding in, We have to figure out how they can continue to grow services. I think that's the key, and I think there's still concern there. I just want to pick up on something that Dan said. I think you were quoting from my earnings preview report. I always read it.

10:31Tim Seymour:Well, of course you do, because everyone loves to read sell-side. But he didn't footnote you, which is awful. No, but no, my point is I think what you're saying here is something that I said generally coming into this reporting season, that I think investors are ready for real numbers. Like they want to understand what the impacts are. And, you know, I can't comment on this specific company, but what I have read so far in this reporting season is I'm still getting the general like, oh, we're enhancing productivity. Oh, we're adding to efficiencies. We're enhancing our employee experience. We're enhancing customer experience.

11:00Tim Seymour:That is simply not going to be enough. And I think that, you know, are we just still too early, too experimental that, you know, is this just sort of a pipe dream for me that I'm going to get any of this color anytime soon? Maybe. But, you know, I think you hit the nail on the head. I don't think it's an issue for one company or industry. This is the broader issue. Which is what I mean. We saw that in meta. And that's why meta spikes so high. Because you could point to different things. And say this is where the investment is yielding the most results. Yes. And those numbers were phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal.

11:29Interestingly, they pushed Mark Zuckerberg to give us some kind of ROI. See what are we looking at on this enormous spend? And it was a very squishy answer with no metrics. You know, and I was actually a little bit pleasantly surprised that the street didn't penalize that at all for that and with that very big CapEx. And really quickly, the message for the earnings season that you say started squishy on the consumer is really strong. I mean, what we've heard from these companies, at least the real consumer companies, which are meta and Apple, are the ones and the ones that are more enterprise focused.

12:04So the ones that are struggling. Yep.

12:05Tim Seymour:We had another earnings alert here on Sandisk. Shares soaring after the company reported earnings revenue and guidance that blew past Wall Street's estimates. The conference call kicked off in the last hour. Christina Parsenevils is here on set with all the details. Christina. I'm just going to follow the flow because you were talking about numbers and they provided the numbers. Really, I had to triple check to make sure that I wasn't making any mistakes. On the earnings call, they really spoke about demand outpacing supply well beyond 2026. The other thing that I mentioned to you, and they really got asked about multi-year commitments.

12:33This is something different for the memory world and storage world. Normally, it's considered a cyclical environment, and that's why you have traders go in and out. They are making the argument that because of the AI build-out and data center providers and hyperscalers, those customers are more willing to sign multi-year agreements, and that's helping them plan for the next few years. That's also helping them raise prices right now because, of course, supply is short. They also said that they're seeing their consumer business. Keep in mind that they do USBs as well and other little products.

13:04Tim Seymour:Their consumer business grew 50 percent year over year growth and that they've signed innovation deals like FIFA. They mentioned that's a pretty big deal on the call. And I think overall, this is reflective of many companies. Just on Monday, I was at Micron. I was speaking to them and they said the same thing, that many customers are signing these multi-year agreements. And that almost as an investor, we shouldn't treat them as a commoditized product, whether you believe that or not. And that it's not a cyclical environment anymore. and that because demand is outpacing supply for so long. And so it's an incredibly bullish call or comments on this call thus far, and that's why you're seeing shares continue to stay high double digits.

13:39Tim Seymour:All right. Dan, what do you make of these moves? Because, you know, you had some skepticism surrounding the sector, but Sandus delivered and then some. I mean, the guidance is twice what they delivered in EPS for the last quarter, the guidance for the current quarter. I mean, it's just staggering.

13:54Melissa Lee:Yeah, so the stock's up 1 ,100 % since September 1st. So you could add all you wanted under$100, and here it is at$600. So if you tell me now that they're signing multi-year deals, they're telling you that it's not cyclical. Listen, this is clearly secular, okay? But the idea that none of these customers are double ordering, triple ordering, I mean, you know, when we talk about this again and again with this, you know, OpenAI throwing out a trillion and a half dollars of, you know, compute, like, build, you know what I mean? Like, they're not going to fill it. It's not going to happen. Like, it's not going to happen in a straight line either.

14:27Melissa Lee:So, I mean, if you're buying the stock, I don't know what you're buying the stock here for. We all knew this was going to happen to the extent of it. Fine. So good luck trying to get this upside the next quarter. We already see that there's multi-year quarters. So, again, I said this last quarter, you know, that sort of thing. But you buy into a bubble like this. It overshoots like this. It's going to go the other way, too. And people forget. I mean, you know, Palantir, which has been a darling, it's one of the very few software stocks that has actually benefited from this entire trade. It's down 25 percent right now from its recent highs.

14:56Melissa Lee:In the fall, or excuse me, in the spring, from the February highs into the April lows, it got cut in half. So the notion, and this is much, it's got hundreds of billions of dollars more in market cap. The notion that it couldn't happen from a much higher level when we know so much more about the fundamentals is ridiculous. So this stock will get cut in half at some point this year. And if you buy it at any point here, you're going to lose money. Will it get cut in half at some point this year? A hundred percent. Okay. I'll bet my left pinky, the tip of my left pinky. I mean, that's like that little bit, like that little thing.

15:28No, I can appreciate the silver lining from Dan here. I mean, I actually think that the nothing coming online till 27, while that's what we know in Nanland is something that I guess I have to find skeptical. But when it does, you can't tell me that Samsung isn't going to the moon on production and isn't an ability to do it. So there will be a supply response and this will become somewhat commoditized. I think in the short run, we're at that NVIDIA moment where these numbers are so extraordinary. The beat was even better than what people needed to see. It's not expensive here, even relative to the pre-1100 percent move back to September based on the earnings profile of prices that have gone up eight times.

16:11Tim Seymour:What is the read through to the likes of Dell, which I think is the D in your D-bang? Or B-dang? The dang. The dang. Yeah. I get those confused. It's still January. There's time for you to get the hang of it. But it's mixed for Dell. I mean, I think we're seeing PC demand, right? Actually, I have to look at Apple as well, different PC. But we have the same cost issue, right? If Apple's not going to be able to control with their suppliers, Dell, who is a bigger, they sell more. But they're going to have some difficulty, I think, absorbing all of it. I don't know. Are they? I don't know if they're the type who would sign multi-year deals.

16:49I would think so. Is Christina still here?

16:52Tim Seymour:She's still not allowed to participate. Yeah, I mean, this must be tough for you. Do we have any smaller on who will find the multi-year deals? No, they just said hyperscalers. Hyperscalers, okay. I just think this is a little bit different from the NVIDIA moment, though, in that there is some fungibility in these versus NVIDIA chips. There was no alternative at any price anywhere to NVIDIA chips, and I think there could be here. Badang. That's a good. Badang. Okay. Badang.

17:21Melissa Lee:But, you know, there's split screens all over the place. So Celestica, which is a contract manufacturer, was down 16 % today. They have large customer concentration. It's Google, it's Meta, and it's Amazon. Okay, 50 % of their customers. And they make the servers, they make the racks that go into the data centers that train the models. And it just wasn't good enough. And their operating margins were flat. And, you know, their CapEx was higher than expected. So you're going to have this sort of activity. You're going to start putting together a lot of these pieces. And, you know, that's when some of these, it's a bubble.

17:50Melissa Lee:That's a bubble. You know what I mean? Those memory names are a bubble. She's not here anymore. I'm talking to you, dude. I'm looking at you, and I'm talking to you. Okay? So my point is, I look at a SanDisk in the price action right here. I don't think it's bullish for the broader market. If you're involved in SanDisk, have a ball. I'm sure it's amazing. There it is. You know what I mean? Is it because you're not in it? Is that why you're so negative? Go buy the last Model S that they're going to sell. You know what I mean? Maybe buy an X2. OK, but like my point is, is like this doesn't make me feel better about the S &P 500 at 7000.

18:23Tim Seymour:We're going to move on. Christina, thank you. Thanks for letting me say it. I appreciate it. If I couldn't. All right, let's get together. Big tech story of the day. Software stocks getting crushed. Investors increasingly concerned over the threat. AI poses to the space. ServiceNow, Microsoft, both dropping 10 percent after earning Salesforce and Adalassian, Adalassian, I should say, deep in the red. For more on the sell off, let's bring in Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. Gene, good to see you. Hello. It was indiscriminate. I mean, they sold ServiceNow hard on good numbers. They also sold Microsoft hard on an okay quarter and maybe some warts that people didn't like.

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19:02Tim Seymour:But what do you make of this sort of this pressure that still exists on software? So I first want to enumerate the ServiceNow numbers is that they grew at 21 percent in the September quarter, about 21 percent. This is their subscription business, about 21 % in December, similar growth. And they got into 21 % in March, and the stock gets hit. And I think the reason you're seeing that, Microsoft had some challenges, but if you look at the sequential change, like in deferred revenue, for example, it's similar to the typical seasonality. So what effectively is going on is this is probably one of the most powerful cases of a negative narrative.

19:39We talk about the positive narrative around some of the NAND stuff. Those companies are doing well. But the concern about this two-edged sword around what happens with AI, on one side, you can have lower seat growth because people lose their jobs that are using these tools. On the other side is that could there be essentially just a reordering or re-ranking of the software world with new AI-first companies? This is XAI's macro hard type of approach that Elon has been a fan of. And so I think that that just kind of creates some uncertainty. So, Melissa, the simple take is I wish I could come to a fundamental, you know, this is the canary in the coal mine kind of piece.

20:21But the numbers are largely pretty good. And these stocks are getting crushed, which just tells you investors just simply don't want to hold them. Feels like an overreaction at this point.

20:30Tim Seymour:A couple of things that investors did not like about the Microsoft quarter was the RPO up 110 percent, but 45 percent of that RPO was open AI. And we saw that sort of OpenAI ecosystem today also feel the pressure, Oracle, CoreWeave. And I'm just wondering, you know, is this just concern here that OpenAI is not going to be reliable in terms of ponying up for those bookings in the future? Is it that we're not sure what Microsoft is getting out of OpenAI? I mean, why isn't it that, you know, look at the RPOs up 110 percent? That's amazing. Thanks to OpenAI. Great that we have you on board. You know, it's a slightly different part of the conversation on the software side, but in general, that's the issue is that this is a 45 % of the business.

21:18And I think that it speaks to the concern. And I would just, I mean, this topic even spills over to what's going on with Apple right now, if I may, is that you look at the results, you look at what the stock is doing in the aftermarket, we're going to get the guidance. And my sense is the guidance will have an impact on how it trades tomorrow, but it's not going to change the narrative, most likely around Apple. And I think that narrative will be changed when the new Siri comes out. But when it comes to Microsoft and kind of what's happened with the concerns about Azure growth, it's all about the sustainability.

21:52When it comes to Apple and getting rewarded for whatever phenomenal results, I think, yes, we're waiting for the guidance. But I think more importantly, they're waiting for the moment that Google had in the middle of the year where they stood up and said, Gemini is great and we got Nano Banana and then we have Altman saying they're in code red. Like that validation, we haven't had that moment for Apple. That's the breakout I think needs to happen and that is the confidence that the software names need and they're just not getting it. Gene, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. Just going back to Microsoft for a minute.

22:26On Azure, do you buy the story of it's, we can't supply as much as there is for demand, is, you know, so that it's demand delayed, not denied? It's part of it, but now that's like standard issue. You have to have that commentary that you can't keep up with demand and cloud. And so the little nuance that happened on the call last night that kind of spooked people is they talked about adding capacity. They need to keep up, but they also said that not all that capacity would go to Azure. They tried to change. This is kind of a story that I think is going to come out of this Microsoft call. They started to try to change the narrative try to say don't look at Azure as much we've got these other businesses that are doing well we're going to fund those businesses and that's usually a sign that something probably is changing in terms of Azure growth when they want to communicate a different part of the story we've of course seen that many times over years when companies try to re-change that so Karen I think that at the end of the day is that they've got pent-up demand for it the growth is going to be great they'll grow at plus 30 percent it won't be 40 but I still believe in all this and like this has been a rough two days for me.

23:32I've been very optimistic at how early we are in AI. These stocks are not responding like I would hope, but I'm still in the camp that we're still early and you're going to have great growth from Azure and AWS and Google Cloud, and Apple's going to get AI right.

23:47Tim Seymour:Chin up, Gene. It's the beginning of the running season. Gene's going to stick with us and we'll check back with him later on in this hour. Is Microsoft here buying opportunity? I think it's interesting. Certainly we've we've gone back to and I referenced in some notes earlier. It's almost like this is Microsoft is back to a price before we even knew who Sam Altman was. And now Microsoft has underperformed the entire S &P by about 10 percent since July of 2020. I was doing some charts today. And so and again, in the greatest run for tech and enterprise and cloud and software. And so I think the market, even though it's not a cheap stock, I think after today's move, I think this is a reassessment of really where they are.

24:31By the way, yes, they have investments in things that are a lot more valuable than are probably priced into the stock.

24:36Melissa Lee:I also think it's interesting. And when you think about it, forget the price action. I just look at this and last night we're sitting on the desk and we're saying, oh, they just were touting 15 million paid, you know, co-pilot users. And we were just doing some quick math and we're like, that's five and a half billion dollars. But then if you think about it, they have 400 million.

24:54Tim Seymour:That seems like a small percentage, right, in terms of penetration.

24:57Melissa Lee:But I look at it the other way, silver lining guy. I say to myself, 400 million global paid Office 365 users. I looked at the other way. And then 15 goes to 50 and 50 goes to 100. And then all of a sudden you've got a massive business that's actually really high margin, too. And this is a company that's seen their margins go down over the last three years or so. So to me, I think there's more opportunity at 425 than there is risk here.

25:24Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, we'll keep an eye on all of tonight's after hours movers. We'll bring you the headlines from Apple's conference calls. The conference call is 24 minutes in right now. No guidance yet. Speaking of earnings, United Rentals getting slammed after its report last night. The numbers that had investors selling out of the stock ahead do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in tune.

25:45Tim Seymour:Your data lives everywhere. On-prem, in the cloud, across apps, bring it all together with EverPure, the platform that acts like a living system, delivering the latest in data performance, security, and innovation without ever slowing you down. Sophisticated enough to anticipate your ever-changing data needs, yet simple enough to feel like second nature. Tame your data chaos with EverPure and make storage and data management the simplest part of your business. Visit everpuredata.com to learn more. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.

26:31So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

26:43It's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one you can set. Earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can. Get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card.

27:09Tim Seymour:We've got a news alert on a potential deal for SpaceX. Pippa Stevens has more Pippa. Hey, Melissa. Well, Elon Musk's SpaceX is reportedly considering a potential merger with Tesla. That's according to Bloomberg or an alternative combination with XAI, which Reuters reported earlier today. This, of course, coming ahead of SpaceX's IPO, which is expected this year. Tesla shares up about 3.7 percent here in extended trading. Melissa. All right, Pippa. Thanks, Pippa Stevens. Put them all together. You were actually saying Tesla and XAI. I've been saying this for years.

27:42Melissa Lee:Of course he's going to do this. I mean, like, think about it. And, like, we talked about SolarCity, what, 10 years ago? Of course he was going to do this. And so, again, when you think about it, he's trying to get this thing out, this SpaceX. It's supposedly as hot as can be. But if you put XAI with that, that's just another X factor that you can look at the private markets and you see how a lot of their competitors are being valued. And then the Tesla thing, I mean, he's going to do whatever the hell he wants with it. I mean, like, that's just always what he's doing. Why wouldn't he just sell them all, sell them separately?

28:11Why do you need to jam it into Tesla when, in fact, Tesla's already. This is the CEO of all three. But I think he benefits some of the parts. Again, we're talking about holding companies that don't trade in line with the NAV. The NAV trades at a discount to the assets. I think XAI in this environment should be doing its own raise. I think SpaceX, we know, is doing its own raise. It's going to be stratospheric. Eric, and Tesla's still, as we talk about almost every day, getting priced in for things that are not part of their core business and not struggling on valuation. I don't know why they'd put them together.

28:43Tim Seymour:All right. Earnings alert here on Visa. Shares lower despite beats on the top and the bottom lines. We're having these rising 15 percent with the company setting resilient consumer spending. A list of other consumer facing companies also on the move today. MasterCard up four percent after topping estimates, citing healthy consumer spending. Royal Caribbean soaring almost 19 percent. guidance blowing right past expectations. And Pulte Group rising 3 % even after the home builder reported disappointing earnings. Southwest Airlines, which released results last night, gaining nearly 19 % on a strong 2026 forecast.

29:14Tim Seymour:Lori, consumer, all data points point to a strong one. So look, I think the narrative on consumers coming into this reporting season was the capacity to spend is still there because people still have jobs. There was caution underneath the surface because of lousy consumer sentiment data and that sort of thing. But, you know, the idea of prioritizing experiences, that caution really being more on the goods, no red flags from the financial companies, you know, that's kind of been the thesis. I'm not sure anything has really changed there at this point. But what I will tell you is worrying me just a little bit is that just about every single meeting I did in December and January, clients told me there are massive tax refunds coming.

29:49Tim Seymour:And so we're all bulled up on stimulus and consumers in particular. And there's also been, you know, a little bit of stabilization that you've seen on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. obviously not seen on the conference board data. But I do think that there has been a lot of optimism on the consumer that I have sensed in my client meetings from that tax refund issue, and that does make me a little nervous. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Shares of United Rentals getting slammed. What had investors bailing out of the construction equipment leasing company?

30:20And do our traders believe in a bounce back?

30:23Melissa Lee:Plus, Mideast tensions rattling the energy sector, crude oil prices surging to their highest levels since September, how the Trump administration will respond to the overseas unrest, and what one oil expert sees in store for the space. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

30:49Tim Seymour:Your data lives everywhere. On-prem, in the cloud, across apps. Bring it all together with EverPure. The platform that acts like a living system, delivering the latest in data performance, security, and innovation without ever slowing you down. Sophisticated enough to anticipate your ever-changing data needs, yet simple enough to feel like second nature. Tame your data chaos with EverPure and make storage and data management the simplest part of your business. Visit everpuredata.com to learn more. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.

31:35So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

31:47It's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one you can set earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can. Get this, Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card.

32:13Tim Seymour:We're getting some updates out of Apple's conference call. Our shares are higher by under a percent now. Let's get back to Steve Kovacs. Steve. Yeah, Melissa, we got some guidance and those memory price concerns addressed here on the call. First, let me go over guidance. CFO Kevin Prex says to expect revenue top line growth to be between 13 and 16 percent year over year. So another quarter in a row of double digit percentage growth expected. Services, as has been the story for a couple years now, also expected to grow by double-digit percentage points. And margins expected to be between 48 % and 49%.

32:49Now, that also plays into the memory conversation. We've heard about memory prices increasing. Tim Cook did address this on the call. Two ways to look at this here that he talked about. First of all, the memory price are expected not to impact as much in the second quarter that we're in right now. But he did say moving throughout the year, they do expect those prices to continue to increase. On the supply side, now just on the iPhone side, he also made a point about being supply constrained on the iPhone. That's because sales were basically better than they thought in the December quarter. And Cook called the inventory remaining quite lean.

33:29So they're still playing a little bit of catch up on the iPhone side, trying to meet the demand after this hot seller of the iPhone 17. So the big takeaway here, though, guys, is those memory prices are going to be concerned, maybe not so much in the current quarter, but moving forward throughout the year. Tim Cook saying he expects those prices to continue to go up now.

33:48Tim Seymour:So I guess we are to assume that there is no contract blocking in price, even though Chris. I mean, we're hearing more about multi-year contracts from customers. We don't even have multi-month contracts from Apple. Right. Yeah, I'm not sure. They did not address the contract thing and what they've already pre-negotiated. All he did say was they expect those memory prices to increase. And the margin guidance of 48 to 49 percent compares to what, Steve? I do not recall what it was in the year ago quarter, but that is in line with what they just reported for the December quarter, for sure. Got it.

34:21OK. And that's despite increased R &D spending and so much more.

34:27Tim Seymour:All right, Steve, thanks. Steve Kovach, with all the latest guidance numbers, what do you think so far? On memory, none of this should be a surprise. I think the street knows that they have these LTAs, these long-term agreements. I don't know how many months they are, but they're certainly out through the middle of the year. I think everything is fine. The March quarter is fine. It's the second half of the year, and that's still hanging over them. And if Tim Cook is bringing up that uncertainty, I think the analyst community is going to be zeroing in. It's 10 % to 20 % of the cost of building an iPhone right there.

34:57Melissa Lee:Wow. And on the margin front, so year over year, it was up 3%. And sequentially for the current quarter, they just guided it was down 1%. I mean, again, it's not a big deal. I'm surprised on the revenue guide. I think expectations were for 10 % growth year over year in Q2. And they just guided a 13 % to 16%. You'd think that's pretty healthy, especially given what they're talking about. They didn't, I don't know, do they report EPS? Like, do they guide EPS anymore? Because I don't see it down here. But that's good revenue growth.

35:22Tim Seymour:Let's get to Gene Munster for more reaction here. Gene, what's your take? I'll take Dan's line. They had 10 % for the guidance was the expectation, I guess, for March and 13 to 16. The margins, typically they do see some improvement from December to March, and they're guiding to that. And I understand that they have some commentary about the back half year margins. But in total, there's just something else going on. Like this is, I think, give me a blank sheet of paper. I'd probably say this doc should be up something like 5 to 7 % based on results and what they're saying about kind of customer buy-in.

35:57And so what's the piece that's not lined up? I think it goes beyond just kind of the nuances about the back half of the year and guidance. I still think this comes down to the sustainability. Are investors comfortable that this party can continue? And that's been a story, a long time story about Apple. But these results, the guidance, it's just really impressive. Stock's not showing it. I would add one other piece is the second or third question on the call was related to kind of what you're doing with Google and tell us kind of a little bit more and really Cook didn't say anything. And so at some level, I think investors just want to know that they got those AI chops.

36:37They're going to show it, but we're going to have to wait around to see that.

36:40Tim Seymour:All right, Jean, thank you. We'll check in with you again. Jean Munster, the stock is ticking a little bit higher, up almost a percent at this point. Karen, what do you make of all this? Well, I'm sort of wondering, when they do have those price increases, who pays them? How did they apportion them between what the customer pays and what they pay? Yeah. Coming up, a fueled AI, a fueled trade, fueled up trade, I should say. Crew prices surging, ascensions rise in the Middle East, the latest out of Iran and the impact on the energy sector and the stocks. Fast Money is back in two.

37:16Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing well off their lows as investors digested the first of MAG7 earnings, Dow adding nearly 56 points. The S &P with a small loss and the Nasdaq falling about three quarters of a percent, snapping a six-day winning streak. It had been down more than two and a half percent at the lows. Gold, silver and copper all hitting fresh records in a volatile day for metals. Gold already up 24 percent so far this year. Silver surging more than 64 percent. And some more after hours action in shares of Decker's outdoors. That stock jumping after beating expectations on the top of the bottom lines with the revenue for the Hoka and Ugg brands topping estimates.

37:50Tim Seymour:So we have that stock up by about 12 percent. We do want to get to our shares of URI, which really tanked today. I mean, yes, awful day, Karen. What happened here? An awful day. Worst day in a long, long time. They missed on revenue. They missed on earnings. They missed on margins. They missed. I mean, and that's unlike URI. Right. there, you're normally an under-promise over-deliver. So part of the things that were a little problematic last year that they worked through, like this idea of having these big projects where they have to move equipment across the country or further than they normally do.

38:22One of their strengths is that they're everywhere, but that required them to move a lot of equipment. That's expensive. That has persisted. They did have one very large project that was delayed, which I don't know exactly when that will start. But I think the response was overdone. At its lowest, the stock was down, I don't know, a couple, two, three more percent than this. And I think the balance sheet's in great shape. I don't think the story has fundamentally changed so much. A little bit on the margins being bigger revenue, less margin, but still having good earnings power, good free cash flow.

38:58So I liked it. I actually bought a little today, which I normally don't do on a first day when something's down a lot. I did buy a little bit.

39:06Tim Seymour:I think this is overdone. Despite this move lower in URI, industrials overall for today, a good sector, Lori. And, you know, we saw isolated areas in the market being sold off. But then we did see that sort of broadening trade continue. Yeah, industrials is a funny one. We're neutral on the sector. And, you know, we've generally liked the fundamentals. I will say that most clients that I talk to seem to be in the space pretty heavily. And it actually ranks as one of the most expensive sectors in the S &P 500 by a mile. That's looking at median P.E., so it doesn't speak to every individual stock.

39:39Tim Seymour:But it has seemed like an area that, in theory, should benefit from the rotation, except for the fact that everybody's already there. Coming up, the crude climb. We'll talk to a top oil analyst about the hot commodity and where the energy trade goes from here. More Fast Money right after this.

40:00Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Crude oil jumping on growing concerns. President Trump will strike Iran. WTI settling almost 4 percent higher, while Brent rose more than 3 percent. It's now over 70 bucks a barrel, seeing its highest close since July. Let's bring in energy analyst Paul Sankey of Sankey Research. Paul, great to have you with us. How much of an Iran premium is in Brent right now? It seems like a lot. I mean, we've broken through the 200-day moving average to the upside, And the last time that happened was the previous Iran bombing that was back in June of last year. So it seems like a big part of this move is related to that.

40:33Although I'm a bit perplexed by the size of the move, I have to say. Who knows? I mean, maybe there is something big about to happen that will be very interruptive to oil supply. But it's been a surprise move here for sure, even with the threats to Iran. Paul, it's Tim. Great to have you on. And what's fascinating time and help us zero back in on really what is the driver ultimately for the oil price, because we do have a better demand backdrop. We do have dynamics that at least say global growth and demand continues to pick up. Historically, this has been a big part of the story and supplies always kind of ebbed and flowed.

41:08I'm just curious where you're putting the emphasis here. Well, you know, we look back and over two years ago, we thought that the low in oil would be around February of 2026. and we were saying the oil would be in the 40s by now. So for us to be above 70 is obviously a disaster in terms of the oil price forecast. When you look at the moving parts, absolutely, demand has been somewhat better than expected. And we're now thinking that we may be missing barrels on the demand side because the extent to which oil has held up would imply that there's more demand out there that appear in the balances.

41:42And then there's just been a lot of disruption, Tim, as you know, particularly around sanctioning of tankers. and additionally China building inventory as much as a million barrels a day that have all added up to what seems like a tight market. But when you look at the major forecasting agencies and do your own numbers, we still seem to be, you know, one to two to three million barrels a day of oil ever supplied, which is what makes this move so surprising. And then, of course, the kicker has been this winter that we've seen both in Europe and in the US, which is causing a lot of incremental demand.

42:16I'm sure you've seen stories about Massachusetts and PJM, the electricity market, burning upwards of 300 ,000 barrels a day each of oil to generate power in what is a real tight energy market right here in the U.S. with this weather.

42:30Tim Seymour:You know, with the scorching rally we've seen year to date in both Brent as well as WTI, Paul, a lot of the stocks are at multi-year all-time highs. Which ones do you still see value in? Well, we've been loving Schlumberger for the first time in many, many years, actually, this year. So we've been the right side of that one. And we thought that oil would go down and the oil stocks would go up, which is always kind of a hero call. But, you know, the oils have got so beaten down that we were almost in the mood to buy any of them on the basis that the market couldn't sell anymore. When you think about the S &P at, you know, 30 times earnings, these oil stocks were down, you know, well below 10 times earnings.

43:05And the other thing here, of course, is terminal value has gone up. So there's a wide acceptance now that the oil age is not ending in the way that people thought it would five years ago. There's been capitulation by all those who claim that the oil age was over, such as the IEA, such as BP, and the more responsible forecasters like Exxon have said we think oil demand will stay flat through 2050. So we were going to put that terminal value back into the oils, haven't taken it out. So things are acting very well. And as I say, for us, the stock has been slumber today. I think Exxon will have great results.

43:38We had an amazing beat from one of our favorites, Valero, today. They continue to deliver brilliant results.

43:44Tim Seymour:Yep. All-time highs on VLO. Paul, great to see you. Thank you. Paul Sankey. Thanks, Matt. Coming up, Staples off to a good start this year, and the Chartmaster sipping on one name in particular, the name he thinks is ready to bubble up to record high. Next, more Fast Money in two.

44:07Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The chart master couldn't be here today, but he did send us a postcard, Carter Worth or Worth Charting, saying it is time to buy Coca-Cola for a shot at a breakout to all-time highs. By his work, the longtime range bound name is ready to end its 18-month slog and could make a move above 80 bucks a share. Meantime, the broader consumer staple sector has outperformed the market so far this year. It hit an all-time high on Tuesday. It is up more than 6 percent versus just under 2 percent for the S &P 500. This is a group that you like. Well, we're neutral this sector, but we did upgrade it last summer.

44:42Tim Seymour:And we have six neutrals, and we've put it in the top tier of them. So the best neutral. The best of them. Yeah, out of the, we've divided up the six into the top three and the bottom three. And what the top three have in common, they're REITs, energy, and staples, because they all have attractive valuations. And what I thought was really interesting about the three of these coming into the year, December, January, everyone's like, Lori, what's cheap? What's cheap? We want to look at cheap sectors. They want to talk about health care, financials, which look good, you know, look reasonable. But these are even cheaper.

45:08Tim Seymour:And the beverages in particular on our industry work are also looking pretty undervalued. Coca-Cola. I like it. I'm longing it. I just think they continue to deliver solid performance. They've evolved the business. The margin profile is better. They are a great beneficiary of technology and they are a great beneficiary. I just think of global efficiency and they've they've they've restructured their business over the last 10 years. And I think the company has never been more profitable, even though no one drinks Coke anymore. Well, so Carter, if he were here, would probably say resistance becomes support.

45:39Or it's been fallow for so long. Yeah, a pair of twos and, yeah. What, the Coke?

45:45Melissa Lee:Yeah. He's saying buy it. It's going to break out. What are we doing here? No, after a long base. Resistance has become support. Well, it will if it breaks out and holds it.

45:54Tim Seymour:What?

45:54Melissa Lee:What?

45:54Tim Seymour:It will if it breaks out and holds it. Yeah. Okay. Anyway, Carter says bye. Up next, Final Trades.

46:07Tim Seymour:Final trade time. Lori Calvacina. We like materials. Metal and mining are not that expensive. The chemicals are cheap. Great to have you here, Lori. Thank you. Tim. SLB, one of the best performing stocks of the year. Had numbers affirmed. Their international growth is there. I really like SLB and think it's going high. Karen. Yes. So United Rentals, despite the not-so-fun day, if I own none, I would look at it here and say, yeah, I like it. But wait one more day. Give it another sell-off. Buy United. Dan?

46:36Melissa Lee:Yeah, Microsoft is a downside. I was surprised it was down so much. And then Apple, I'm surprised it's not up more.

46:41Tim Seymour:Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5 for more Fast Mad Money with Jim Cramer. Starts right now.

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47:37ZetBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and obesity to improve their OSA. ZetBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZetBound contains Terzepatite and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pins or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2.

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From the publisher

Big tech earnings roll on with Apple reporting results. The numbers from their latest quarter, and what Fast Money friend Gene Munster thinks of the recent rout in the software space. Plus Crude prices surging as Mideast tensions ramp up. How the U.S. may respond, and what one oil analyst sees in store for the energy sector. 

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