Apple’s Device Delay… And Vaccine Makers Under Pressure 9/12/25

0:00Hi, it's Melissa. Before we jump into today's show, I've got something exciting to share. On December 11th, we are hosting a special edition of Fast Money Live. trading the holidays right here at the Nasdaq Market Site. You get to watch a live taping of Fast Money, meet and interact with the traders, and of course, celebrate the holiday season with us. It's stocks and cheers in the heart of the city, Times Square in December. You will not want to miss this. Tickets are available now at CNBCEvents.com slash Fast Money. Live in the Nasdaq Market Site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money.

0:31Here's what's on tap tonight. Apple's big day. The company's latest iPhones now available for pre-order, but could report the delayed shipments way on the stock. We'll talk to one top analyst. Plus, Tesla revs up. The stock locking in its best week since May, but the chartmaster thinks the rally is about to run out of gas. He'll tell us why. And the Winklevoss' Gemini makes its market debut. Pfizer and Moderna sink on new concerns over their COVID vaccines. And not a meme stock, what Opendoor's co-founder had to say about the surge in shares of the online real estate stock. I'm Melissa Lee. I'm to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ.

1:05On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, and Carter Braxton Wirth. We start off with Apple trying to stage a rebound to close out the week. The stock dropping almost 2 % today, but still down 2.3 % since announcing its latest iPhone on Monday. That makes it the worst performer among the Mag 7 this week. Pre-orders for the new devices went live today with reports that some Pro Max models were already seeing delays in their delivery windows. Reports also that the super thin iPhone Air could be delayed in China due to regulatory concerns. For the latest, we're joined here on set by Steve Kovach, who was right there when the thing was unveiled.

1:38What are you hearing so far? Yeah, so it's actually a pretty smooth launch today so far. I'm old enough to remember when the site would collapse every day the pre-orders would start for the iPhone. But here's the good news. Those delays that you were talking about in the iPhone Pro, that's actually good. That means the lead time is getting longer. That means demand is high. When we wake up Monday morning, we're going to have in our inbox a slew of notes from all the Wall Street analysts kind of picking apart what the delay and what the time looks like. Because the bigger that window is, that's the first read we get as to what the demand looks like.

2:10Last year was a disappointing year. We saw those windows shrink, which is actually bad. Yes, people get their phones faster. But for Apple, that's a bad signal. So we're going to want to see longer wait times for these. Now, on the iPhone Air front, as you mentioned, that is not for sale in China. This was unexpected. We woke up today thinking it would go on sale, but actually there's some regulatory issues going on. The wireless carriers out there do not yet have the government's approval to sell this phone with the new kind of SIM card they're using. It's called an eSIM. They do have the approval to sell the other three iPhone models, the 17, 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max.

2:46So those are going smoothly. Apple tells me they're going to get it on sale in China as soon as they can. But this is probably the hottest device in this cycle right now. It's the same price as the Pro was last year. That is, increases those average selling prices on phones. Very important. And by the way, if you want to hear more about these phones, our own Jim Cramer has an exclusive interview coming up next hour on Mad Money with Apple CEO Tim Cook live from that Corning Glass factory down there in Kentucky. So a lot more to unpack there with Mr. Cook. Yeah, and we saw little clips of it during the day.

3:19Yes. Tim Cook turning the iPhone Air to its side, saying, you can barely see this, can you? You can see it. And then holding it. I know. I was like, I could see that plain as day. And then holding it, saying, we're holding the future in our hand. But I think he's not being, he's kind of exaggerating and playing Mr. Marketer there a little bit. But at the same time, this is what I've been saying all week. This is Apple going back to what it's good at, making really cool, desirable gadgets, not focusing on artificial intelligence and software and services, which they've been historically weaker at, they are going to really make these devices that people want to go out there and buy.

3:53This is an attractive device. This is going to creating a lot of excitement. I was out there in Cupertino earlier this week. One of the top iPhone executives, I was talking to her. She's using the iPhone Air. Tim Cook was using the iPhone Air. It's not even the best phone they make, but it's that kind of attractive device that's getting people really excited. So, Steve, do you sense that Tim Cook and Apple are kind of, you know, they're not doing, They actually believe that this is about the innovation, both in the design body and a better camera and the things that historically have made this a cool phone.

4:23And they've not been innovators. And so it's kind of as everyone's doing AI, they're saying, look over here. And do you think that that's really what do you think there's a game of misdirection, not outwardly, as they would put it? Or do you really think that they believe they've delivered a phone here that is as good as they have released ever in terms of and in terms of what's expected of them? in this environment yeah i think i think it yeah the short answer is yes the longer answer is let's talk about the install base too we see them sitting out artificial intelligence this year that is so true understood but making the cool phones people want to buy just keeps that ecosystem rolling one billion plus iphone users in the world what ai company wouldn't want access to those customers so as apple pivots away from building artificial intelligence in-house to partnering with a google or an open AI or an anthropic, whoever it might be, they are in a better position now to do that.

5:17Just today, we got news that another AI executive, Bloomberg reported, is leaving Apple. I mean, I can't even keep track of how many of these people have left the company. It's almost like it's good news. And they're going to be able to do it in a cheap, assuming they can pull off what they say they can now pull off. They're going to be able to do it in a cheaper way. They're not spending$100 billion a year on CapEx and building these data centers. They're not spending$100 million going out there poaching talent from open AI and rivals. They're letting their talent leave, in fact, so they can do what they're good at, which is making cool phones people want to buy.

5:50Right. Steve, thank you. Good to see you. Steve Kovac. It's interesting how we sat on the desk the day of the Apple event and we said, you know what, this is just a thinner phone. And then the narrative has sort of changed here. And I'm just wondering if you agree with that change. I'm a little surprised, actually. I figure so you're talking about, all right, they don't need to build it in-house, but they know they need it, right? So why wouldn't you wait until they have it to get a phone that incorporates it? It's Friday afternoon. Can I throw a flag on Karen? Who brought the guest back? You brought the guest back.

6:18Oh, we're not supposed to do that? I don't know. He's sort of, all right, sorry. Am I technically a guest if I collect a paycheck from this place? That's right. Yeah, we'll let that go. All right, sorry. Thanks, Tim. You're in trouble with the teacher. Go ahead. I was never that guy, by the way. It was always happening to me. I believe you. It was always happening. But are you, I mean, do you think the narrative has changed? It's like all of a sudden Apple's back in the game, innovating, making cool phones that people want. Well, as the guy on the desk who's long and who've kind of defended Apple for not having to be an AI and that being focused on an install base and being focused on the fact that if anything, you know, the Craig Moffitt argument earlier in the week, which is that we've removed more China uncertainty.

6:59They're never going to make major components in the U.S. Craig's gone out of his way to say, I'm not gangbusters bullish, but bears have kind of converted. Tim Cook has done masterclass work with the White House. Apple has a cool product. Everybody here on this desk probably has to get a new phone sometime in the next year or two. I mean, mine is barely working. And the fact is they're going to be serving up AI through whether it's Google, Gemini, whether it's Dynamics in terms of partnerships, whether it is their ability to actually do multiple deals. I don't know what they're going to do, But I don't think that we should be surprised that people are finally saying no good news was priced in.

7:39That's good for the stock now. Well, a couple of things for. Except Carter. And then we can get to how long, how often are you supposed to replace them? And with four kids, they break. I think I'm getting them sort of. Yeah, I mean, they're coming into my household every three to four months. It's crazy. But anyway, one, we're on the three year anniversary of its relative peak to the sector. Right. So that was in it was in September of 2022. The second thing that's important, of course, is that Apple showed a little bit of life over the past month and a half, but it's precious little. Right off of its April low, it's up 38 percent.

8:08The tech sector is up 58 percent, which leaves the stock still down on the year and 10 percent below its Christmas peak. Do you fade this move? I think you do. Well, I'm not really long. So, yes, I agree. I mean, also, I come into valuation. You know, we looked at this very differently, but end up in a similar place. It's expensive. And I don't really see the catalyst. This, to me, was not the catalyst. Do they have any earnings growth out of the buyback? I mean, the EPS is one thing. When you're buying back at north of 30. No, but without the buyback, is their net income growing? Yes. Barely.

8:40Right, but not in the buyback for a long time was a tremendous thing to do. It would be great if we had an analyst coming on the desk to talk about it. It would be very handy. Someone just settled who could just slip right in. One wishes Dan Ives out with iPhone 17 pre-order predictions in a new note today. Dan is here. He is the firm's global head of technology research. Dan, good to have you with us. Great to be here. What are you hearing right now about demand for this phone? I think Air, definitely, that's been the upside. I think that's what you've seen. You know, in terms of what I believe is going to be the pre-order activity, probably about 5%, 10 % year over year is what we're looking at for iPhone 17 over iPhone 16.

9:14Plus, clearly, China, you know, that's the X variable, right? I mean, you had this little sort of dent relative to the regulatory. But I think overall, Sheree's expectations definitely are probably too conservative going into this launch. I mean, I think the streets, like 30 percent holds or something like that, which has got to be sort of a historic low. And this is historically a stock that is well-liked on the street. So do things line up, I mean, right now for just sort of that bounce in your view? I think Karen makes a great point in terms of just some of the worries here when it comes to AI.

9:45But I think there's three things. One, New York City cab driver is bearish in Apple right now. So I think the sentiment overall is, one, street's very negative. Number's going to have to come up. And I think as you have number of visions higher, that's bullish in terms of for Apple. Two, look, when it comes to AI, there's a better chance of me playing in Ryder Cup, Beth, P, H, September than anything happening internally at Apple. So I think now streets recognize it's going to have to come external. Looks like Google Gemini is going to be the way. And the third thing is, look, Cook's played nice in the sandbox in D.C.

10:16So in terms of the tariff sort of dance that he's done, that's been a positive. You set that all up. I think, you know, 270 is our price target book. To have a$350,$400, AI will be that magic sort of wand that needs to happen. Okay, so when is that likely to happen? It seems to me like this iteration isn't going to be the one that's going to. So does it really even matter now what happens here? Look, I think it does matter relative to. You cannot be on the outside looking at the biggest, whatever is the fourth industrial revolution every tech company is going after. But I do think the best thing that happened to Apple was that DOJ positive for Google because that finally reignited the candlelight dinner between Sundar and Cook, probably happening soon, to double down that partnership.

11:07But what's baked in here is Street viewed this as this was going to be a 4 % to 5 % grower from an iPhone unit perspective. Now looking likely, we'll see our trajectory looks like, probably 7%, 8%. The other thing is, based on our estimates, 315 million iPhones have an upgrade in four plus years of 1.5 billion iPhones. So you do have a lot of pent up demand there. And I think that speaks to probably a stock that looks like it's going to move higher over the coming weeks and months. By the way, Dan, I think you could probably make the Ryder team with that jacket. I mean, there's no question that they're looking for some fashion flair.

11:42I just wish I had a short game to match it. Well, Keegan Bradley, by the way. We're not talking about it. Let's talk Apple. But when you were on a month ago, you made the sense that there was an imperative. They did something very quickly. I remember you saying six months or they're dead in the water. And we maybe we framed it this way, but it was kind of like, is this their BlackBerry moment? And I don't know that it were any different than we were six months ago, but you seem more confident. And that that makes sense to me, because I just think that the couple of things that have happened for Apple in terms of China, in terms of Trump, in terms of dynamics are enough.

12:14But has something changed for you? It's the Google DOJ. I mean, the Google DOJ ruling, ironically, AI is ultimately what really got the win there. That opens the lane. Now, it's not about buying perplexity. It's not about an acquisition. Now, that is going to double down. So you don't need to see, because, again, you needed to see something. Because the reality was you thought that they were going to be hands high behind their back. They couldn't ultimately do anything with Google. Now, that opens it up. So you think about this good news. First, it was obviously Cook in the Belly and Oval Office.

12:44what he's done with Trump in terms of White House and investing from an AI perspective, Kramer being there at the factory. Then you now look at the DOJ. That was a champagne moment. Then you actually have, when you look at air and what looks like the demand trajectory here, better than expected. Look, combo that with sentiment that's so negative, at least institutionally speaking on Apple. I think that's a really good setup, in my opinion. So walk us through the catalyst. And I think this gets to Karen's question. We were expecting an update to Siri right early next year. I mean, are you expecting that some sort of a deal with Google would happen by then?

13:20Yeah, I believe it. Okay, so that's going to be the same thing. I believe deal with Google. We're not going to have to wait until WWDC in June. A deal with Google happens before year end. I think that's something that gets announced in terms of at least the initial framework of what that deal looks like. That's the important thing because to Karen's point, there's no magic solution here that's going to be AI driven. But if the street realizes, OK, here this is going to be an 8.5 and a 10 of a cycle relative to iPhone. But then you actually have over the next year the real one, the one that's going to be the game changer.

13:52That's where I think sentiment really starts to change relative to the stock. Just another question about the DOJ. So we know that that relationship is allowed, but other relationships are also allowed. Do you see any other any other player doing a big deal? Or does it feel like that pole position is so important that the next one isn't worth however many billions it would be? I think they just need each other both so much. And the reality is that$20 billion probably goes to$30 billion or more when that re-ups, you know, because it's going to be a much bigger deal. And then when it comes to Apple, they don't really want to be forced into a perplexity deal.

14:27So they're going to need Google. And now look, could Google go outside? of course, but they know that red phone hits Cupertino and Cook because they need them from an install base that's unparalleled. Even though it's not exclusive, that's more sort of, you know, from a quote perspective, because the reality is it is semi-exclusive. Dan, great to see you. Thank you. Dan Ives of Wedbush. Have you gotten more bullish since Monday? No, I think I'm where I have been. And I've had to sit and fight my corner on I don't think there's any good news in the stock. And the multiple doesn't bother me in a market that doesn't care about the multiple.

15:04And as we as smarter people than me have said, the higher multiple is not going to sink this market. It's not going to sink Apple either. And so I believe that they are going to serve up A.I. with great deals, probably a better deal to have Google Gemini or possibly one of the other folks. And I do think that there is an element of their services business that's probably underappreciated. I think they're going to find a way to get that to be more than a 15 percent part of the revenue stream. And buybacks and things that have made Apple a defensive company or at least a company that investors shouldn't be running too far away from.

15:36I mean, that's always been there. Yeah. I mean, the knock on the valuation is a real one. I mean, especially when you compare it to a Meta or an Alphabet, which have lower PEs, higher growth. I mean, they are more like growth stocks now. Despite the Google re-rating, it's still significantly lower, mid-20s versus low-30s. Which chart looks the best? I mean, of those, let's go with Google first. That's extended now. Okay. Harvest a little bit. The one that hasn't done that, you know, Oracle's just done that, closed very poorly today. The one that really hasn't broken out of the two, well, two, both Amazon and Meta.

16:10They are basically toying with their February highs, a little bit above, a little bit below. I think those are better than a lot of the extended ones. All right. And another reminder here, do not miss Jim Cramer's full interview with Apple CEO Tim Cook. That's at the top of the hour on Mad Money. Well, a wild week for Opendoor, even with today's 14 % loss. The real estate stock is up 36 % this week and almost 470 % this year. Shares jumping yesterday after announcing a new CEO and that co-founder Keith Raboy would return to the company as board chair. Raboy joining Squawk in the Street today commenting on recent retail trader interest in Opendoor and said it is not a meme stock.

16:49What do you do, though, with a meme stock? I mean, it's up 1 ,500. It's not a meme stock. It's not a meme stock. So let's talk about what this means. Wait, look. Well, let's talk about this. What is the entire original point of having markets? It's to allocate capital, right? First principles. Markets are designed to allocate capital. Consumers are voting with their feet to say, we want more capital being allocated to Opendoor. That's a good thing. That's how society should work. You must have upset that base of retail investor by saying that, really denouncing the term name stock. I mean, a lot of companies become one or not, whether or not they participate in it.

17:34Right. I mean, to me, it does seem very mean. Yesterday you had over the entire float trade, well over the entire float trade. Now, obviously, things can trade multiple times, but that to me would be a sign, for example. and, you know, the wild swings in valuation. Whatever, it doesn't matter. If they can create value, they can create value. I think I saw you earlier today talking about, well, Carvana was meme-y. Right. And now it's not graduated into a non-meme. So you're not saying it can't happen, but this does seem meme-y to me. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's true. We've seen that with a few companies.

18:06You can make an argument that Robinhood's gone that way, too. But, you know, ultimately, what does this company do? I mean, if we're going to get at the definition of what a meme stock is, it's something that gets caught up in hysteria, especially because the stock was down and out. And that gives an opportunity for people either to say, all right, what were meme stocks? Meme stocks during COVID were seemingly stocks that were broken companies that seemingly had big short interests. And there was a group of people that were trying to be opportunistic to say we can either squeeze people that have that short interest or we can actually get behind a company that we think is changing.

18:42I think, you know, look at AMC and look at an example of people that got so confused to try to believe that this company, suddenly the fundamentals around their core business were going to change just because there were a lot of, I would call those capital markets hieroglyphics. And therefore, you know, it may be good in the short run. There may be an opportunity. And let's see what happens to GameStop. I mean, it's really still an open issue. I mean, the key is short run, right? This is very much something to train if you're going to do it. You know what you're doing, right? You're engaging in something that is highly volatile.

19:13That is what? How would I write the article? Open, down 98 % from its high of two years ago. It's now down only 76%. I mean, it's like, so what, right? But that doesn't mean you can't trade and make money. So here and now, it's in play, and I guess I'd be long. Be long. Be long, wow. Coming up, a retail route. The new data weighing in consumer discretionary names today is retailers gear up for the holidays. That's next. Plus, another IPO pop, the Winklevoss founded crypto company Gemini, making its market debut. The move in that name and how the rest of crypto fared this week. Don't go anywhere.

19:48Fast Money's back in two.

19:58Welcome back to Fast Money Retail. Under pressure today, Abercrombie, Gap, Lulu and Dix, just some of the names deep in the red. That after the latest read on consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since May. Karen, you flagged this. I mean, we're going into the holiday season. We just came off of back to school, and they're not performing well. The stocks aren't performing well. I mean, we did have that sentiment number, which you can think of as something that this group of stocks would be very sensitive to. So I don't know if that's what happened. I mean, I find it interesting when all different kinds of retailers and all different kinds of space, they're all down.

20:30Even like TJX, which usually does better relatively. And Amicrobby not doing well at all. Nike as well, long that, long TJ, long some Gap. Difficult day, but I think I saw a lot of good retail stuff. Last night, RH was a different story. Right. Different kind of buyer, much more expensive items. But I am still positive on the retailer. Are you? Well, that's just one way to look at it is if you look at the XRT, which is that equal weight retail ETF, which has about 150 names. Could be Monroe Muffler up to Amazon. They're all equal weight. The Monro Muffler Yeah It's in there Who knew Who knew The point is I was trying to pick Something arbitrary And unknown I think I succeeded At that Okay So this ETF Is highly correlated With the Russell 2000 Right Because it's equal It's got about A 70 % correlation It's come a long way Right I mean Just as the Russell 2000 And my hunch is You're starting to see Cracks now Right You're seeing Individual names Are peeling away Yes there's the Ralph Lauren's that are continuing, but generally speaking, it would fade this area.

21:38I mean, just so what Karen was doing in terms of connecting it to other consumer-facing names, you can connect this also to the restaurant trade. I mean, it's a lot of similar sort of characteristics. It's a very tough situation right now for Cava, Sweet Green, CMG. Yeah, exactly. I think this is a combination of quietly you've had consumer discretionary as a group be third in line after tech and communications. And so the group has generally done well. When you look at Lulu, Lulu hasn't done well for a long time. Nike, outside of a couple spurts, hasn't done well for a long time. Cracks in the TJ Maxx kind of armor are things that are worth watching because this thing's been bulletproof for many different cycles.

22:19But I think if you think about consumer discretionary, there are places here that I don't want to be. I don't really want to be in discretionary apparel, especially in places where we've had big thematic or big kind of dynamics around. I think athleisure is a place to be wary. I'm a long Nike, but I'm a long Nike because I think Nike's gone through this period and I think Nike's not expensive. But I think consumer discretionary. And is one Michigan or consumer confidence number enough to start selling off discretionary? Absolutely not. Remember how wrong the soft data has been. But I think there are parts of discretionary that are no touch.

22:55There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Crypto back in the spotlight. A Winklevoss-founded crypto exchange, the latest name to make its public debut. How it fared and whether Bitcoin's momentum can continue after a big week of gains. Plus, more concerns for vaccine makers on a new report on the HHS. The potential moves from the Trump admin weighing on those names. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.