Big Tech Bounce… And An Economic Warning From JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon 4/14/26

18:51Mel?

18:52Tim Seymour:Mac, thanks. Mackenzie Cigalos. And, Tim, this goes to your semiconductors, and they win in this trade. They win. And maybe even the ones that don't have the brand name high-margin chips out there, the ones that eventually we're going to get to. Either folks want to do it in-house, but they want to partner, they want to white-label it. that's been the more dominant trend over the last three months. And this is why Broadcom is really in that unique spot where they're doing the custom chip development. And most of the hyperscalers want something that's really specific to them. And it does the workaround for NVIDIA.

19:25This has been a story that probably took really long for the investment community to understand. And now they're starting to get it.

19:31Melissa Lee:Look at the downstream plays. And I think you've brought this name up. Look at Bloom Energy today. What that stock did, I think, was on the back of an Oracle announcement. But But, you know, all these sort of tangential energy plays are off to the races. So I think that Tim and Steve's point, it means the trade is probably still alive and well. Yeah, I want to be clear here. I mean, like we sound kind of bullish and some of us have been less bullish than the others here. And that's not my view right now. I mean, I think it's a hard place when you see piling in. You go from a really negative sentiment to a really positive sentiment.

19:58Melissa Lee:There's been great stories in this whole market over the last three years or so. And we're going to kind of anniversary that three year of that first NVIDIA blowout quarter. Remember, it was May of 2023. And it's just crazy to think that here's where we are this, I guess, long into this kind of early stage of this cycle. It just hasn't been much of a digestion phase across the whole NASDAQ. We know that a lot of the MAG-7 corrected. Maybe that's it. I just have a hard time getting too bullish right here on these names.

20:27Tim Seymour:Coming up, a potential mega merger in the skies. What a United American deal would mean for the space and the antitrust hurdles they would have to clear before takeoff. Plus, quantum stocks taking a leap as a group brings in World Quantum Day. I know you have a few big cupcakes out there. You all want to miss the celebration. If you don't go anywhere, Fast Money is back in two.

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22:22Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of United and American Airlines taking flight today. United CEO Scott Kirby reportedly pitching a takeover of the rival carrier during a recent meeting with President Trump. Our Phil LeBeau has more on this. Phil? Melissa, so far what we have today are these reports that came out late yesterday about Scott Kirby talking with President Trump, saying, what about a possible merger with American Airlines? With that said, let's be clear. We have talked to a number of people today at both United, American and in the industry. there are no direct talks going on right now between United Airlines and American Airlines.

23:00That might change at some point, but at this point, nothing formal has been presented. There hasn't even been an overture to American Airlines or board members there. Neither airline is commenting at this point, and there are plenty of hurdles out there. A number of stories today talking about the fact that when you look at the market share between American, American, which is the largest in the United States of all the airlines, and United, which is number three, combined, they would have 40 % market share, essentially 40 % market share, more than double in terms of size relative to Delta Airlines.

23:34So what would be some of the philosophy here that Scott Kirby might be looking at, might be saying, why does this make sense? Take a look at their market caps. He could make a pretty convincing pitch likely to shareholders of American Airlines saying, look, our market cap is four times greater than yours. Our returns are much better than yours. We can do a better job running American Airlines as part of United Airlines than if you continue to be just investors in American. Don't know that is exactly what he's thinking, but that could be one argument that he's going to potentially make if this becomes a formal proposal.

24:08Take a look at the airline stocks today. Alaska, Delta, JetBlue, Southwest, they were all up today. Keep in mind, oil went down, so there was probably some short covering that was going on as well, which also added to the momentum behind the airline stocks. And finally, Melissa, I think this is the most interesting chart of all. I'm going back to September of 2016. Why are we doing that and why are we showing you United versus American since then? September of 2016 is when Scott Kirby left American Airlines, where he was president of American Airlines. But it was clear he was not going to become CEO.

24:42And he went to United. And Oscar Munoz said, come on in here. You're going to help us run this airline for a while. And eventually, you'll likely be CEO. And that happened, I think, three or four years later. No comparison in terms of performance between the two airlines since Scott Kirby went to United Airlines from American Airlines. So there's that. That's where we are, Melissa. This is this feels like one of those stories that's going to kind of it's going to linger. It's going to hang out there for a while.

25:09Tim Seymour:Well, it's interesting. You know, the reports indicate that he made this pitch to President Trump. And the implication is that because we haven't heard about this until now and there was no proposed merger, that Trump said no, which would also imply that President Trump has an actual say in this. But this meeting happened just a few days before the Iran war and the bombing started. So you could also make the argument the president and his administration have been clearly much more focused on that than they have been on considering an airline merger. And let's also be clear here, without a formal proposal, it's not unlikely that the president said, OK, that's interesting.

25:51I don't know that for sure. He might have just said, well, yeah. But remember, we talked to the transportation secretary just last week, and he said, we're open to the idea of a merger within the airlines, even large airlines here in the United States. Has to be the right deal, has to be structured with what we think will work, but they are open to it. Yep.

26:10Tim Seymour:Phil, thanks. Phil LeBeau. You bet. Bob Isom is 62 years old. The stock is lower than when he took over in 2022. So compared to the others, it is an underperformer. performer. It's a big underperformer, but its balance sheet has been a big issue. And I think the efficiency and how they run is another thing. I mean, you can't argue with the efficiency gains that you've seen at United, those you've seen at Delta. And I think that's what's interesting for airlines in a day like today. And I think I mentioned that airlines couldn't outperform when I thought everything was moving for them right before the war.

26:45Now they've proven they can actually hold demand in higher prices. They could probably hold these prices higher. They cut capacity by two points. They're probably going to have as good of razzm. That's right. I said that, Melissa. That's revenue per available seat mile as they've had in a long time. I think airlines are going to continue to rally here. And it's strange that it took real headwinds for them for the market to see it. Well, I think airlines are going to rally because if you do have that end of the war and oil stays where it is, that's a natural tailwind. But this backstory, this seems personal to me.

27:19Does it not to you? I mean, this is he was showing the door. He didn't quit. He was showing the door. And now he's coming back full circle. I think this one could go higher.

27:28Melissa Lee:American, I think you're talking. I mean, let's pull up the chart. I mean, Phil is talking about it, but it's gone nowhere for, I think, the better part of eight years now. It's pretty remarkable. And I would say this. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's just my thought. I mean, Delta's done extraordinarily well. United's within, I don't know, 8 % of its all-time high. Airline mergers historically haven't worked out all that well. So I don't think this is necessarily it might be bullish for American on the margins. I don't think it's great for United. They usually happen in times of duress, Tim, like when things are not good in the industry.

28:00I think they've certainly happened during periods where individually I don't think that there have been. I mean, we're talking about back 15, 20 years ago. There was a lot of consolidation, but most of the consolidation has been have been forced dynamics of one going bankrupt and somebody stepping in and assuming the debt.

28:16Tim Seymour:There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

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30:04Tim Seymour:Learn more on the Uber app. Welcome back to Fast Money. A very special holiday in the tech world today. Did you know about this? No. World Quantum Day. An international event promoting public awareness and understanding of quantum science and technology. Why today? Well, April 14th is a reference to 4.14, the rounded first digits of Planck's Constant. Obviously, we all know that, which is of foundational importance in the quantum world. Stocks in the quantum sector all rallying today in celebration. INQ, D-Wave and more seeing outsized gains. And so, Steve, how are you celebrating this very special day?

30:45So I do own IONQ and I do own inflection. And all of them have different strategies. I don't think you have to focus on it because it's really deep in the woods. You can go down a rabbit hole on this. But what I think you have to do is look at these through the prism of this is what AI was back in 2018. And then in 2022, chat GPT came on the scene. So I think we're at the moment where we're close to the chat GPT moment for quantum. maybe a couple of years out. But I think the market is going to price these things in a lot sooner than we would think. So I think you have to be along some of them, not a lot, but some of them.

31:22And if you want to play it with IBM, the original on AI, the original on quantum, you could do it that way or you could do it this way. I chose to do it the riskier, deeper end of the pool.

31:33Tim Seymour:Are you celebrating World Quantum Day? Who is it? Where's your pocket protector?

31:36Melissa Lee:Pardon me? Your pocket protector. It doesn't even have a pocket. I mean, I left it. By the way, it's Plank, as you know, with a C and a K, as opposed to Doug Plank and Gary Fensick, who both used to watch the show. Or your favorite yoga position. Gary Fensick. The Plank. Chicago Bear. Now, let me say this quickly. I'm with Steve on the IBM front. It's traded off significantly since it's all-time high. That you get at least IBM core and you get the quantum sort of tail. So IBM is the way to play it.

32:02Tim Seymour:All right. In the meantime, we do want to point out Bitcoin crossing the 76 ,000 level at its highest today, highest since early February. Crypto-related names, Robinhood, Coinbase, Riot, Strategy also getting a lift as investors seem to embrace a risk on sentiment. Is this just for now? No, I don't think so. I think as someone that has not been a card-carrying hodler a lot of my career, I think Bitcoin is going back to all-time highs. I don't know when. I think Coinbase, and I believe the platform. I mean base, and I also mean just other elements of the platform, is going to ride with that at some point.

32:36I'm long Coinbase. I think Robinhood, which I'm not long, is very interesting in terms of their demographic and in terms of the growth and the asset base of the folks that don't have as many assets that they can grow into. So I think you're selectively buying a few of these and you can still buy them. They haven't moved so much.

32:54Melissa Lee:Yeah. Robinhood, I think it was Bernstein that was out this morning, they're saying it was like an asymmetric setup, like to the upside. And, you know, they're looking at, you know, growth of event contracts. You know, options has obviously been a big thing. And then the growth again, if it comes back, if Tim's saying it's going to all-time highs, that would be the big point. At some point. Yeah, no, I mean, of course. You know, that's what they're focused on. And those have been big drivers. Throw in the event contract stuff. It's probably hard to quantify. I think they were saying trillion-dollar market by 2030.

33:23Tim Seymour:Coming up, what a top bank analyst makes of this morning's results. And a warning flag from J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. The increasingly complex economic risks he's worried about when Fast Money returns.

33:41Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks, keeping yesterday's momentum as investors await developments out of the Middle East and the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow jumping more than 300 points, the S &P climbing to within a half a percent of an intraday record. And the Nasdaq leading today's charge up nearly 2 percent, notching a tenth straight day of gains, its longest streak since November of 2021. Shares of Novo Nord is climbing three and a half percent today, the pharma company partnering with OpenAI to bring artificial intelligence to the drug discovery space. Novo saying the partnership will help analyze complex data sets, identify promising new drugs, and reduce the time it takes for a medicine to move from research to patient use.

34:19Tim Seymour:Shares still down nearly 23 % this year. And Amazon buying satellite telecommunications company Globalstar for about$11.6 billion. It's a move to build out its satellite internet business as advised to compete with SpaceX. Amazon also agreeing with Apple to provide satellite connectivity for current and future iPhones and watches. And Nike, jumping after hours after an SEC filing, showed CEO Elliot Hill and Apple CEO Tim Cook, a member of Nike's board, bought shares of the company. So insider buying, Tim. I actually bought some Nike shares today, and not because I think there's anything that great going on, but it's partially averaging down.

34:57But I want to apologize for them. I think I said something kind of offensive about Guy and a pocket protector in the last block. So, Guy, I'm sorry about that. Why is that offensive? Say it to the audience. But what is wrong with a pocket protector?

35:07Tim Seymour:You have a pen. You don't want it to leak into your shirt. It's a sign of being extra geeky.

35:10Melissa Lee:Nobody has pockets anymore. He was saying that was like a poindex. Remember, like, in the Van Halen video, Hot for Teacher? That's what he was saying, stuff like that. There's nothing wrong with that either. I was a geek growing up. I'm still a geek. Me too. I'm fine with it.

35:26Tim Seymour:Hot for Teacher video. Anyway. Interesting. Let's move on, shall we? BlackRock and Citigroup rallying after reporting earnings that beat street estimates this morning. Citishares hitting their highest level since 2008, but J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo shares closed lower. J.P. Morgan topping expectations, but CEO Jamie Dimon flagged increasingly complex economic risks. Let's bring in Gerard Cassidy, Global Financials Research co-head at RBC Capital Markets. Gerard, great to see you.

35:52Melissa Lee:Thank you, Melissa. Great to see you.

35:54Tim Seymour:Was this just typical Jamie Dimon being conservative?

35:57Melissa Lee:I think it was, Melissa, because he oftentimes gives us a more conservative view of the global outlook. Of course, we all know about the geopolitical risks in the Middle East right now. And that's very understandable for him to say that. But I think when you get down to their numbers, J.P. Morgan's numbers were quite strong in the quarter, as were some of the other banks who reported today as well.

36:20Tim Seymour:Yeah, Citi seemed like the real standout here. I mean, Jane Frazier, I mean, just a stellar quarter in terms of what she has done and what they're still left to do. How much is there left in the stock run?

36:33Melissa Lee:It's a really good question, Melissa, because it was a really landmark quarter for the city. They had record quarterly revenues. Their markets business, I believe, you know, at over seven billion dollars in revenue, it was the best quarter ever. So there's been a number of things that went right for them, deservedly so. But to your point, Jane Frazier has done a very good job in turning this company around. And there's still room to run. Of course, the big divestiture that's still to come is the Mexican business. But now after that, it's going to be all about growth. And obviously, they'll be focused on that on their investor day, which is in early May.

37:14Hey, it's Tim. And so I guess we don't want to hear Citi talking about buying regional banks and some of the things that were out there. I don't know if you have any views on that. But I actually, Jared, I prefer to ask you about re-rating for the sector. I know we've re-rated, but to me, it's all about at least what multiple you're paying, paying on price to tangible book at this point, less about P.E. And I don't know why banks shouldn't be trading two times the multiple. And I mean, you know, so in other words, if the average price to book was one and a half three years ago for the entire money center bank group, why shouldn't they be trading closer to three?

37:48I mean, they're more profitable. They've never been run better. AI is going to make them leaner and meaner. Sorry, it's a long question. And I'm leading the witness.

37:55Melissa Lee:I know that that's fine. I think you're onto something, Tim. I'm with you. The structural profitability for the group is better. And the one area that I think, which you didn't mention, which is just as important, is the regulatory change. And therefore, because of the lower capital requirements many of the banks will have, not so much J.P. Morgan, as Jamie Dimon pointed out on the call today, but most of the banks are expecting to see lower capital levels, which means structurally you'll see higher probability. You tie in what you said about AI and the benefits of that, you're certainly going to see, I think, an improvement in valuations.

38:35Melissa Lee:But we have to remember, these are cyclical stocks. These stocks do get hit hard in a recession because of credit. But right now, I'm with you. I think there could be some more further expansion in valuations because of the increased probability. Gerard's got ESPN because I was going to ask him if banks are still slick cyclical. And you just said that they were. Where are they in the cycle, in your opinion? Yeah, Guy, it is the question. And I would say that we're probably using the baseball vernacular. We're probably in the middle innings right now. And it's really going to come down to what happens to the U.S.

39:12Melissa Lee:economy based upon this conflict in the Middle East. And if we can get through this conflict without too much damage to inflation, meaning inflation moving much higher, then I think you're going to see the strength of the U.S. economy shine in the second half, driven by the data center build out in this country, as you guys know how strong that is. And that leads into a stronger 2027. So I would say we're in middle innings right now, Guy.

39:39Tim Seymour:Gerard, great to see you. Thank you.

39:42Melissa Lee:Thank you, everyone.

39:43Tim Seymour:Gerard Cassidy of RBC. What are you thinking of banks, Steve? Yeah, so the obvious is J.P. Morgan best in class. Bank of America probably best risk. Wells Fargo still is a turnaround story, which is still unbelievable. Everyone's sort of behind Citi. A guy's been right to be behind Citi. But if you look at long-term charts on these, all of them had made new all-time highs. Citi is the only one. Bank of America is right around that level. But Citi is still off dramatically. And I mean, by 80 percent, because they diluted the reverse split. It's apples and oranges. I mean, the stock was blown up.

40:19That's the point. I'm saying that all the rest really have performed. And now it's a near term performance. And how long can Citi do that?

40:26Melissa Lee:I have such a problem with and Gerard wasn't making the strong case, but that if the economic growth is coming from the data center build and we know that that's kind of like pushing out a lot of the consumer growth. Right. So if data center builds are pushing up cost of energy. Right. Which it is happening. And it's just like these guys can't build these things fast enough. They are energy constrained. And then you think about a consumer that, OK, this is also leading to unemployment. Right. So there's lots of pressures going on, not to mention what's going on with the straighter her moves. And, you know, there's going to be disruption for a while here.

40:59Melissa Lee:So I think at some point that's kind of a double edged sword, the growth that we're getting from data centers. All right.

41:04Tim Seymour:And we should note, Leslie Picker has a big interview tomorrow with the Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan after its results cross the wires. That is tomorrow. Squawk on the street, 10, 15 a.m. Eastern time. Coming up, Wall Street kicking the tires on some automakers, the names they see speeding ahead and whether the stocks can accelerate after a rough run so far this year. Fast Money's back in two.

41:29Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Auto stocks revving up after a few bullish notes this morning. Deutsche Bank upgrading GM to buy after its recent pullback, saying it's on the cusp of a multi-year re-rating. UBS, meantime, upping Ford to buy and Tesla to a neutral. So what do we make of these moves? You like GM. I love GM. I've loved GM for a long time. And I think the market, again, is just starting to appreciate it took kind of putting the EV business into the rearview mirror and a reality about whether that was ever going to be profitable or not, to understand that their internal combustion engine business or hybrids are interesting, but that the companies have never been run better.

42:07It's extremely cheap. It's endured a lot of bad macro. Obviously, tariffs weren't good a year ago. Yeah, and I think obviously they sell the biggest selling cars are the SUVs and the pickup trucks. So if you look at Ford, I would go first for GM. Second would be Ford. And I do still own Tesla, very small. But Tesla is not a car company anymore to me. It's robotics. It's autonomous. There's a whole bunch of other things that are thrown in there. But I do like both GM and Ford.

42:35Tim Seymour:We don't really talk Tesla that much anymore. No, we don't. Interesting, huh? I'm okay with that.

42:40Melissa Lee:Yeah. And you know what else we don't talk about all that much? Toyota Motors. That comes out TM, Melissa Lee. And you want a good-looking chart. Look at a 40-year chart of Toyota Motors. 40?

42:51Melissa Lee:Did I stutter? Did I? Yes. 40. It's a very big deal. 40-year chart. Who breaks out of stock? Don't tell me to look at a 40-year chart, matter of fact. What is a figginy doing back there? Please do it as a log chart, though. 20, we can go. Lower, lower, upper, right. I mean, it's just pulled back off. It's all-time high. Is there a 40-year chart? I'm sorry.

43:12Tim Seymour:I have to pull out an almanac or something. I like a good almanac. I thought I might have heard you wrong. No, you heard me right. Coming up. Shares of Netflix hitting the highest levels of the year, where traders see in store with earnings just two days away, and why Wall Street is tuning in. More Fast Money in Tune.

43:36Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix shares jumping almost 3 % today after Moffitt, Nathanson, and KeyBank both raised their price targets on the streaming giant. The stock is now trading at its highs of the year and has gained more than 28 % since dropping out of the bidding war against Paramount, Skydance, or Warner Brothers. Netflix reports Q1 earnings Thursday after the bell. Certainly a lot of questions, I'm sure, about its pricing tier. Also, whether or not the price increases that we've all seen on our Netflix bills, if that was incorporated in guidance that they gave.

44:05Melissa Lee:Never thought Netflix was going down to 70, wherever it got down to. So that was wrong. But I did think once this whole Paramount Warner Brothers thing got sorted out, Netflix would rally. That's seemingly right. They report this Thursday. I think you've got to be long to name into the print and after the print. I think they're going to surprise people. And I don't think valuation is awful here for Netflix. So I like the name at these levels.

44:27Tim Seymour:Do you think they talk about an M &A strategy or do you think they say, no, we're going to use that money and reinvest? And what do you like better as a shareholder? I think they're going to talk about outlook in terms of content and things that will be drivers, like special events, like possibly sports, some of these live type streaming events. And also just the difference in the tiers and how profitable the pay for tier is. So I think the valuation is still your biggest enemy here. But the chart is your friend. Let's get back up through this 200-day, and then I think she can run. Yeah, they should never utter the words M &A, this year at least.

45:03That was the reason. That was the death nail for them. They have to really push behind doing what their bread and butter was. But if you look at Disney, if you look at everything, they own the space. Disney had a second round of layoffs or the first round for the new CEO. I do like the chart on Roku. Sort of a different angle to this, but Netflix is still the king of content.

45:23Melissa Lee:I would not be long this thing. I just feel like that they were having problems at a whole host of different like kind of, you know, metrics before they made that bid for Warner. And when you think about why did they make that bid for Warner to begin with, they're not giving a subscriber growth. I know there's a lot of stuff that people want to hear. You guys just mentioned the tears and advertising and all that sort of stuff. I just think it's kind of run pretty far without a whole heck of a lot of clarity about why it started to sell off last summer.

45:49Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.

46:04Tim Seymour:Time for the final trade, Tim. Yeah, if you look at a 50-year chart of Citibank, you're a buyer. So am I. Steve. Inflection. They are on NVIDIA's quantum stack and NVIDIA's a paying customer. Inflection.

46:18Melissa Lee:Dan. Yeah, Intel's 50 % rally over the last month. It's gotten it back to its 30-year highs, if you want to check out the chart there. I'm not buying into this thing, into earnings. You've got TerraFab. You've got IslandFab. It's like discounting, all that stuff. Guy. I just put a 40-year chart of the Toyota Motors on the Twitter if you want to see it, Tim. Everybody does. So Toyota Motors, I've got to go. Dance with the girl you brought to the prom.

46:41Tim Seymour:Did you have to take a picture of like a parchment chart?

46:44Melissa Lee:A parchment, yeah. Microfiche.

46:46Tim Seymour:That money starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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