Big Tech Earnings… And The State of Women’s Sports 7/22/26

23:11And that's not a good business. So if RoboTaxi does not come on the way that they expect it to do, then the production of those cars are not going higher. They are literally they're they're exhausted in the U.S. and in Europe. So you better hope that SpaceX that started with a two trillion dollar market cap, right, doesn't top out the way Tesla did. And you better hope that it doesn't go sideways for three or four years because there's a good probability that it could do that. I'm not telling them short it. I'm not telling you anybody should sell it here or whatever. It doesn't trade well. And I think if they didn't have that XAI, I can't imagine where the stock would be trading because it would only be trading on Starlink, which is a good business.

23:50But it doesn't deserve a multiple. And then if it's all in the come about Starship and all this other stuff, well, then you better not hold your breath for that. And that's the same story as Tesla over the last five years. Yes, that is the common thread amongst all the Elon Musk companies. Remember when you and I did the shoot where we drove a Tesla together? Yes. Wasn't that fun? Where was it? Short Hills Mall? Short Hills Mall. And then we went to the Cheesecake Factory. Yes, cake. Ticker to cake. Wasn't that fun? How long ago was that, by the way? It was probably 15 years ago. All right, so that Model S was the best car they ever made right out of the gate.

24:21And since then, they've all been like hunks of junk. Did you see the article about comparing the Cybertruck with the Edsel? I just want to vomit all over the camera shot. I mean, what a piece of junkie. Don't do that. Anyway. He is a human meme. You short him at your high risk. I wouldn't go near that on it. But would you be long? Well, I own it. I fully disclose to you that I own it. I own SpaceX. And I'm a big believer in the long-term game of what he's trying to achieve. He's an idiosyncratic guy. Everybody knows that. But I would not bet against him because he's working right now somewhere, probably under his desk on something that we don't even know what it is that's going to explode in two years.

25:01And I'm going to be a part of it with him. Well, I'll hinge on what he says on the conference call. That starts off in just about five minutes time. Meantime, coming up, some fast movers catching our traders' eyes. What is behind the posterings moves in GE Vernova, AT &T and CME Group? That's next. Plus, Bitcoin back in focus as an updated crypto bill makes waves in Washington. What the mooch sees in store for this trade? Straight ahead. Fast Money's back in two.

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26:58Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks. Muted in Wednesday, trading the Dow and the S &P 500 virtually unchanged while the Nasdaq shed half a percent. AT &T popping 3.5 percent despite mixed results. Net ads coming in ahead of expectations. The company also accelerating its planned buybacks to$10 billion this year. GE Vernova sinking almost 9 percent despite a Q2 revenue beat and guidance hike. The company is seeing declining wind revenues and weaker onshore equipment deliveries, also warning of additional charges related to tariffs. CME Group surging 5 percent, putting in its best day since 2023. The exchange operator beating estimates and saying the first half of 2026 was its best ever start to a year.

27:37And some more after hours moves on the radar. Texas Instruments lowered despite better than expected top and bottom line results. Las Vegas Sands sinking, missing earnings and revenue expectations. Southwest Airlines in the red on weaker results and a nearly$900 million jump in fuel expenses. But United Rentals jumping as rental revenue rose 13 percent to a record. This is the R in your previous acronym. Yes. For rentals. What was the previous one? It's terrible. That's what it was. Yeah. It was terrible. This one's worse. But no, United Rentals are fantastic. A beat and a raise. They do not raise unless they are absolutely certain.

28:15They've done a fantastic job. They have these huge projects. This has been a really, really good stretch for them. And I think it's going to continue. It's not cheap, but staying long. Yeah. Sammy, just quickly. 30 million shares average daily volume. It's the third best quarter, I think, in their history. History is a long time. So, you know, the rumors about their demise are greatly exaggerated. I mean, I get it. There's all new products coming out. But Terry Duffy, friend of the show, friend of ours, is always one step ahead of the curve. This was a great quarter. And that existential risk that everybody was worried about a month and a half ago, I don't think it's coming to fruition.

28:49Meantime, Bitcoin's recent rally on pause today and crypto related stocks like Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood also lower. This as an update to the Senate's clarity bill would ban federal officials from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies. Anthony, is that a bad idea to ban federal officials from sponsoring cryptocurrency? It seems like it's logical, but apparently we do need a law in order to make that happen. I think the big thing is the Democrats said to the White House, we need an ethics provision that has teeth in it. And so they said, what do you want? And they said what they wanted in the White House gave it to them.

29:24And now the Democrats are saying, well, that's not enough. We want state AGs to be able to enforce these federal ethics provisions. So that's a real problem because then you have to redo all of the ethics codes in the federal government because you can't have the state just prosecuting the crypto and not all the other ethical potential violations in the federal code. So they've got to get around that and they've got to have a compromise. But then the biggest problem is the procedural one. You only have 14 days to go before the August recess. So you need what's called the procedural prep for a bill like this that happened before the weekend.

30:00Today's Wednesday. That means sometime tomorrow afternoon we're going to have to hear that that's in play so they can get it down to the floor to vote. If it gets to the floor, it's going to pass. That's my opinion, because I think a lot of the younger Democrats are not going to want to go up against the crypto bros and their PACs come November. That's my opinion. If it doesn't get to the floor, it dies a brutal death. And then guys like Brian Armstrong, after all the hours and time and energy that they put into this, they start building their businesses off the shore of the United States. May I ask Anthony a question?

30:32You may. See, I asked permission, which I, isn't that nice? Yes. Why is it so difficult? You hear from people, I know I do, I'm sure you do. The game is rigged. The politicians, whether it's Democrats, Republicans, it goes across the aisle, not allowing them to trade. Why is that such a difficult concept? Not just crypto, equities in general. Well, they make money doing that. You know, if you're paying them$180 ,000 a year and they have insider information, they're allowed to trade on it. They make millions of dollars a year. And so I would rather take a Singapore model, pay them 15 million dollars a year, 10 million dollars a year, and then get really tight on them with the ethics.

31:08But we don't do that in this country. They can't afford two houses. Let's say you're a member of the house. You make one hundred thousand dollars a year. How are you going to live in your district and how are you going to live in Washington on that money? So they have all these different loopholes and they have all these junkets and they have these ways to get them money. And, you know, LinkedIn today, I mean, I'll send it to you, Guy. They showed Nancy Pelosi's stock market performance versus the S &P and Warren Buffett. It's remarkable. OK, so it's remarkable. And so is that fair? Does it make sense?

31:37It doesn't make sense. Remember, when Peter Schweitzer's book came out in 2011, they banned it. And then they put it back in by voice vote. They didn't even go on the floor because they didn't want C-SPAN to see them voting for it. So they did a conference call and they reinstated it. And so to me, it's very, very bad. But you also have to understand you have to pay these people. If you're not going to pay them, they're going to find ways to make money so they can afford their life. All right, Anthony, you were a crypto skeptic. Then you became a big bull and you're in on it. I mean, like Bitcoin is your thing, right?

32:09Yeah. So if you're crypto curious, but you don't really get the underlying, you know, the pillars of it. What about looking at last night? We had a great conversation. Well, I thought it was a great conversation. Maybe I brought it up. That's why it was a great conversation. We were talking about some of the institutional platforms. You know, we had talked about Coinbase and what they do. We talked about bullish. We talked about a circle. You know, throw it all. Are those interesting businesses, whether you believe in Bitcoin or not? You know, I love those businesses. We have a first trust skybridge digital economy ETF called CRPT.

32:40And if you look at the list, all of those businesses you just mentioned are in those holdings. And so I'm a big believer in the picks and shovels of the digital economy and this sort of new age fintech. Now, I also believe that the stuff is coming, whether people like it or not, because it's better technology than what we have. This is the Uber problem. OK, let's go back to Uber. Government hated Uber. Mayors hated Uber. Taxi commissions hated Uber. Who liked Uber? The people. And so the people basically burned them off and won out. You don't have enough people in crypto right now to fight back the government resistance to what's going on in Washington.

33:16Just quickly. Yeah. Bitcoin. Where's it go? Well, it's going to grind higher because the sentiment is terrible. We're doing this a long time. Relative strength index, all time low. Fear is at like a seven on a scale of one to 100 in terms of greed and fear. And there's no supply of Bitcoin in the marketplace. And there's no interest. And if you go search searchable terms on Google, Bitcoin is down 55 percent in terms of searchable terms. All of those reasons, I think Bitcoin is bottomed. I don't think it gets much worse in here. All right. Coming up, even more coverage of tonight's key tech reports.

33:52Deepwater's Gene Munster has been dialed into the call. So join us with his analysis when Fast Money returns.

34:06Welcome back to Fast Money. Another look at the after hours earnings movers, Alphabet and Tesla lower while IBM is struggling to stay positive. Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster is following all of these moves and all of the conference calls. You're a hard worker, Gene. What's your big takeaway here in terms of what it means, what this all means? Put it in a bag, shake it up for the AI trade tomorrow. Well, the most important piece, obviously, was related to what the Google CapEx guide was, 4 % higher than the street. And that ultimately means that the numbers for all these CapEx infrastructure companies are going to be going higher.

34:40We saw that in some of the after hours trading with some of the smaller companies like Coherent, Invertive, all trading up 1%, 2%. Nvidia is basically flat. But, Melissa, the simple takeaway is that this is really good for the infrastructure trade fundamentals. The question comes down to will investors give the trade credit? Hey, Gene, you would have talked about it. You are a hardworking guy. So thanks for being here. Thank you. When you look at the deceleration in earnings and sales and margins for Alphabet next year, obviously that spend has a big part of the margin and the earning slowdown.

35:17How do you think about that as an analyst, as an investor? Is that something that should be placed at least a discount on until you see enough reasons to actually see the potential for a reacceleration and margin improvement? You're hitting what is basically the key connection between Google and Tesla tonight. is this margin decline, fractional miss on margin for Google is bigger when it comes to Tesla. And this question about how should we think about margins relative to the broader revenue opportunity, CFO of Google said that they have had this caffeinated growth in Google Cloud that going from 63 to 83 percent, but they're going to have to go to third parties like SpaceX to continue to meet demand.

35:59That's going to push margins lower. And so I want to get the answer to your question, Dan, is what does this mean? Is that it's really important. These stocks are not going to go up unless margins are stable or moving higher. When it comes to Tesla, we had four quarters in a row of expanding out of gross margins, X credits, and that just came to like a crashing end here. And so I think it's really important. They don't have to go up into perpetuity, but they do need to go up and stay high for, I think, these stocks to continue to work. Jean, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. So just to get at that margin a little bit more, if they do have more demand than they can supply, when do we get to a period where that starts to be somewhat more in line and we can really see what the margins are?

36:46Well, that's kind of one of the crazy parts about these Google numbers is that they're, just to put it in perspective, they did$25 billion in cloud revenue in the quarter. They'll probably do like 130, 140 over the next four quarters. Their backlog in cloud grew 50 billion sequentially. It's now$514 billion. Now, some of them are several year contracts that they have. But Karen, when you look at those backlog numbers, when you have backlog numbers that are 3x what your next 12 months revenue are, it's almost hard for me to conceptualize when we're going to get to supply-demand equilibrium. And I think that's kind of the point here is that these companies ultimately are seeing this massive backlog and saying, I'm going to spend whatever it takes to get there.

37:29So to answer your question, I don't know when we're going to get that. It may be we may be a year plus out before we feel like we get any sense of where that demand that that equilibrium is. What's most important on that margin topic is investors have to believe it can happen before the margins actually go up and have to have some confidence that they are going to go higher longer term. If we could take a look at Tesla stock in the after our session, a leg lower here. This is a massive CapEx year, says Elon Musk on that conference call. The stock is down 5 percent. They originally guided Gene to twenty five billion dollars to 2026.

38:03So I guess it also follows along the line of of Alphabet. You said they followed along in terms of marginal. They're following along in terms of boosting CapEx apparently as well. So is that a surprise to you that they're increasing? Well, this was the one. There's a lot of good things on this Google call. I expected margins actually to be up, so I was wrong on that. I was right on this CapEx, and it was pretty easy to get because we know how important this is for them. The key is not this year, that$25 billion number. We'll get the details when the CFO talks about the exact number. The key is next year.

38:36The street's looking for$21 billion, so a step down. But that number likely could be up year over year because Elon was selling investors. I listened to the first few minutes of the call on this idea that it's going to pay off. This is the biggest opportunity to print money ever, kind of a theme when it comes to CapEx. And so I wasn't surprised by it. And I think another, I mentioned that kind of connection on the margin, but there's also a connection between Tesla and Google, a very easy connection, which is on that CapEx piece. And we've been waiting, we've been talking about the past year and a half for some sort of a slowdown in this.

39:09We're just not getting it. And so I think the simple takeaways, we're still very early in AI. It's hard for me to wrap my head around that, but we're still very early. And I think what we're hearing is evidence of that. Gene, thanks. Always great to get your take. Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management. We should note that we are also getting some headlines out of IBM, which were interesting. They said one third of those slipped second quarter deals have already closed. And they said that this was deferral and not destruction when it comes to those deals lost, So they seem to be addressing head on that concern that those deals were going to go away because the spending was going to favor hardware as opposed to what they're selling.

39:49That's good. But the stock is flat. Yeah, it's not doing much. Nothing much. I don't know. Two thirds. Yeah. Two thirds. Well, there's one thirds that have closed. Oh, right. I thought you said two thirds. It was one third have closed. Yeah, I see. I don't know if this big CapEx thing, is that more of the CapEx that IBM was not the beneficiary of? Right. Maybe that. I don't know. Right. I think it's telling that the stock is unchanged. I agree with that. And it's telling that it's lower than that. Again, 214 is where we traded down to on pre-announcement date, obviously lower than that. That is a tell.

40:29I think it's too cheap. I don't think they're getting credit for the other legacy businesses that are actually doing pretty well. And I put Red Hat in a legacy business. It's long enough now. Coming up from basketball to the boardroom, two-time WNBA champ and Atlanta Dream co-owner Renee Montgomery will join us to talk the business of women's sports and the biggest growth opportunities still ahead. Fast Money is back right after this.

40:57Welcome back to Fast Money. Women's sports expected to bring in at least$3 billion in 2026, according to data from Deloitte. For more on the state of play, two-time WNBA champion Renee Montgomery joins us now. She's also the USA Sports WNBA analyst. Renee, great to have you with us. Let's go. Let's talk it up. Thank you for having me. Love the energy. You are the first former WNBA player to hold an ownership stake in the Atlanta Dream. And so I'm wondering, what has happened in women's sports in the past, I don't know, five, ten years that have really, you know, awakened people to realize that this is a growing area and people have real interest in it and it is lasting.

41:37Yeah, I think the main thing that has happened is that people actually started to watch the game. As simple as it sounds, the product has always been top tier. Like it's been the best league in the world. But now you can just tell that businesses are understanding the growth. The fans are engaged. If people are following women's sports, it has the most engaged fan base, especially on social media. But then when you want to talk straight business. In fact, Deloitte predicts that women's sports market will be at $3 billion in 2026. And so just thinking of that and understanding that that's a 340 % increase since 2022, you start to understand why the investments are following, because there are surges in commercial partnerships and the game day growth and even broadcast expansion.

42:22I mean, right now I'm sitting in the USA Sports Studio, and that's a new partner of the WNBA, and there's others. And so I think that there was a conception that a misconception that women's sports was a charity and that women's sports is like, do the right thing, support women's sports. But now I think people understand it's a real investment. Renee, it's Karen Feinerman. Thank you very much for being on. Excited to have you. So following this a few years out, we're going to have a few more teams. The expansion, I'm a Liberty fan myself, so I have to warn you about that. But I I really wonder, do you think that we will continue to grow at the same pace or could it accelerate?

43:03I think the pace is great right now. I mean, we know that Cleveland's on the way. We know Detroit's on the way. We understand that Toronto and Golden State are already here. And when you see what both of those teams were doing, but if we take a spotlight on Golden State and not just leading the league in attendance, but I went to the game when Golden State, when the Atlanta Dream was playing at Golden State. And the way that their fans are engaged and locked in and just tapped in on everything with the team, it kind of should calm everybody's fear about the growth. And then you look at Portland, and they're selling out.

43:38And you look at Toronto, and I went to that game as well when the Dream played, and there were fans that came up to me that said, they're season ticket members, and they're flying to the games. They don't even live in the same city. They don't live in Toronto. but the whole country is supporting the Toronto team. So they travel in four hours at a time, five-hour flights to support their team. So I think that the growth is at a good pace right now with the teams that we have coming in. And I also love that. I know some people are worried about the growth happening too fast, but if these recent expansion teams are any indication of what's to come, then the league is in a great place.

44:14Renee, the NBA logo is Jerry West from the state of West Virginia, but you're the best basketball player to come out of the state, number one. Number two, what makes Gino, like what makes that program, the UConn program, so special? What does he do in one word or a few words that make it what it is? I think it's just the discipline. Like if I had to describe one word to describe coach, it's a discipline, and then there's a standard. And it doesn't matter what your standard was before you came to UConn. it doesn't matter what your standard is in your mind of what's hardworking, what's acceptable, what's right.

44:52Coach Ariyema has a standard that he set at UConn, and when you go there, you meet that standard. Like, he doesn't accept anything else. And so I think it's that, I mean, you could call it a perfectionist, but I don't even think he chases perfection, even though he's had multiple teams that have had undefeated seasons. I was fortunate to be on one, and we went 39-0. But the way that he trains and the way that he forces you every day to be your best self, I think, is what sets UConn apart. And thank you very much. I love Jerry West and love the state of West Virginia, but I appreciate that. Renee, thank you.

45:26It is a pleasure speaking with you. Thanks for your time. We will see you on USA Sports. Renee Montgomery. Thank you guys for having me. By the way, apparently there is a WNBA game tonight on CNBC at 10 p.m. Eastern time, so you won't want to miss that. Coming up, a credit check, why Capital One shares were under pressure today. More Fast Money in two.

45:55Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares at Capital One down today despite earnings that beat estimates. The company is saying credit losses fell and CEO Richard Fairbank noting that numbers do not reflect the K-shaped economy that many are talking about. Was that your takeaway, Karen? Yeah, I thought that was interesting. I mean, if one were really concerned about the state of the consumer, Capital One is an interesting place to look. And that really is not what the numbers showed there. So there's a little bit of noise because they did that big merger. They did a couple of deals, actually. And so I don't know.

46:28I thought the earnings were good. I'm intrigued. I'm going to pass on this one. I don't have a real opinion. All right. Guy. A lot of analysts raised their price targets. It was not nearly as bad as I thought. I mean, to Karen's point, it was actually good. but I still think credit's a problem for the consumer. Yep. Up next, Final Trades.

46:54Time for the Final Trade. Mr. Anthony Scaramucci. I'm going to say I bid, and that's Bitcoin, and it's a buy here. Karen. Yeah, so Alphabet. I thought it was a good quarter. It's not trading particularly well, but if I owned none, I'd buy some tomorrow. Dan. Yeah, ServiceNow, nice little pop here. It's obviously gotten killed. This could mark a near-term bottom this season for Software IGB. Okay, my final trade is Dollar Gen. But more importantly, I love Anthony Scaramucci like a brother. He's too kind or he's too humble to say this. For the last 21 years, SkyBridge have had interns over 300. Here are all of these SkyBridge interns at our show this evening.

47:35A shout-out to the SkyBridge group. That's the future right there. There are a lot of intellectual capital. And go New York Liberty. Go Liberty. Thanks for watching Fast Matter Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.

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