Big Tech Earnings On Deck… And Charter’s Post-Results Slide 7/25/25

0:02Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. An 11 trillion dollar plus week of earnings. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta headlining next week's results. Will the numbers power markets to even higher highs? We'll debate that. And unchartered territory. The cable company's stock seeing its worst day on record. What its latest results say about the state of the industry? And is there hope for a comeback in the name? Plus, Intel on the outs after its latest earnings report. Luxury leaders with the Pops and LVMH and Estee Lauder say about the strength of the high end consumer and the AI adjacent names that could benefit from big tech's CapEx boom.

0:39I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia, Tim Seymour, and Carter Braxton Wirth. Markets setting new records to end the week. The S &P and NASDAQ both closing at all-time highs again today. While the net Dow ended the session just a quarter percent from its own record, the action comes ahead of a big week for tech earnings for the six biggest companies in the S &P on the clock. Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon a day later. But those aren't the only market moving events on the calendar. We'll also get a Fed decision Wednesday, jobs report on Friday, as well as President Trump's trade deadline.

1:12So will all of next week's events help stocks keep their records rolling? Are we in for a reckoning? All right. That's a little dramatic. You know what I mean, though, Karen? Yes. The setup is not necessarily great. No, I don't love the setup going in. Right. So you You have this levitation into earnings season for the MAG7. So we had one. We had Alphabet. That was good. We saw that. Next week, we're going to get a whole lot more. I don't love the setup going in, although I am heavily long the space. I just feel like this has been such a big run. The VIX broke 15 today. I actually put on some market hedges.

1:51I'm always long, but I just feel like this has been, you know, too far, too fast. And so the bar is really high now. And I think we could see very good numbers. But are they priced in already? Maybe. And especially when you're looking at after those lows in April, the MAG 7 collectively has surged over 40 percent since then. And you've really seen a lot of the money is going into that trade right now. So I think you hit the nail on the head. It's just a really high bar going in. And I don't think it means the trade is over, but I think you really need to see that the CapEx that all these companies are spending right now is, in fact, justified.

2:23And I think we want to see that not only in the earnings, but especially in the guidance moving forward. When are they actually going to start to monetize that? Because that's been the big question. And, Tim, I don't know if you or we collectively have learned anything in terms of the price action response to earnings. I mean, if you take a look at Alphabet's reaction, the earnings are actually pretty good. I mean, it sort of put to rest, at least for now, that narrative, the existential threat to search from AI. And yet the stock only managed to hold on 1 % of its gains on the day. Yeah, I don't think the response in Google, the trading action was awful.

3:00In fact, I think the price action at Google over the last month outperformed that of its MAG7 peers after underperforming. I think there's a couple of key levels on the stock. Remember, 210 is the all-time high. We still have a ways to get there. Maybe one wanted to see more. I think that those that are bearish on Google are continuing to say, I'm not sure they're going to win the battle of the AI search game. Meanwhile, I think Gemini 2.5 is part of why people should feel a lot better. We saw ad search was up 12%. That beat all expectations. And their core search business beat all expectations.

3:34On top of YouTube and Waymo, I like Google. I'm long Google. I wasn't disappointed by the price action. 80 % of the S &P have beaten earnings this earnings season with a bar that I think was also reasonably low. And in many cases, Google especially, but the comps have been are not terrible for a number of the companies that are reporting here. So, you know, the earning season has been fine. We continue on the macro to get a little boost every time we do another trade deal. And we see how stocks do this on the way down. They sell off on the same news. Market seems to be moving a little higher on each incremental deal.

4:09Obviously, EU outside of China is the most important on a week when Japan was a big deal. Carter, what do the charts look like at this point. Right. Well, to your earlier point, and Karen's making the market, I would use the word full. We know that evaluation is a very poor timing tool. We also know it's hard to define. You'll see in any given company, one analyst likes it, one doesn't. But the market is full by all accounts in terms of this would be a mature intermediate advance from the April low to here we are essentially August 1st, up some 30 percent, with many stocks up 100. And so I guess the question is, or the case could be made, that whatever happens in the coming week with the big earnings, that's where you can put in an intermediate top.

4:54Let's say they're all good and we spike another 3%, 4%. Then we will be truly even more stretched and one can make the case for pulling in one's horns. Or let's say they're bad and the dip, correction, sell-off, drop, decline, plunge, you pick your word, whatever nomenclature, starts next week. We are due for something normative after this big a move. mature three, four month move. Is it 3 percent? Is it five? Is it nine? But it's a time to be reducing exposure generally, I should think. Yeah. And there's going to be so many reasons to reduce exposure next week with earnings. There's also the trade deal.

5:28President Trump yesterday saying that they have a 50 50 chance of reaching a trade deal with the EU. I thought it was 50 50 from the get go. But that is out there and that could be that could actually be catalyst to the outside, should a deal be reached? I think the market expects either a deal to be reached by the deadline or an extension or an extension. And the latter, I think, with a high degree of certainty. Can I ask Carter a question? Of course. Yeah. OK, so, Carter, would you say that the setup is equally sort of full for both the S &P and the Nasdaq? Yes. I mean, so let's just look at a couple of things.

6:05We know that the S &P from its April low has now climbed back recouped all the losses and is up, what, some 3.94 % from its high before the tariff sell-off. We know the Midcap Index is still down some 6 % from its prior high, the Russell 2000 down some 8. And the important, interesting thing is that the equal-weighted S &P today literally returned to the penny to its former high eight months ago. And so the question is, is it equally, Let me say this. Is it a 50-50? It's always a 50-50 unless you have a really big play. But this is, is it up three? Is it up five? I think you can get a high volatility week, but either way, trade into it by reducing exposure.

6:51Would you start considering reducing exposure? We've actually been looking at this over the last couple of months because what we find is a lot of our clients just aren't willing to make those changes, right? They're saying, well, Apple and Google and Microsoft, like those are the areas that have had the most growth. But what happens is they are becoming a bigger and bigger share of most of our clients' portfolios. So it is a time to say, I don't want to get out of this trade. I just want to take some profits and add to the things that are your less obvious plays, especially in the AI space. We'll talk about that a little later and some of the adjacent plays there.

7:19There's plenty of areas in the market that I think are much better values right now and have bigger upside. So I still want to own it. But yes, taking profits is a great time to do so. And Tim, have you been sort of cycling out of some of the big gains, the winners, the big tech guys? I've been trying to sell upside calls. And I think in mega cap tech, that's a place where I can feel pretty comfortable selling some long term stuff and really get paid both for the time and the move that some of them have had going into this six months, 12 months out. I like that move. I guess cycling into the breadth of both the market and the economy.

7:53I think Carter's point on the on the equal weight is important one. Financials have outperformed the tech center tech sector for a while. Industrials all year. But we are starting to see subroadening. We're going to have a nice conversation tonight about discretionary, which is maybe finally getting some signs of overcoming what were headwinds both from China and I think just consumer spend. I think health care is a place you want to be. I think there are a handful of names that don't have to reach heavy into biotech, but get into both big cap pharma and some parts of health care. So I like the setup here for markets.

8:25Cycling, I think at some point it's really about understanding which companies are either too expensive relative to their history and making sure rebalancing and whatnot in terms of portfolio management is something we would always be doing. All right. We've got a big news alert here. Decision from Health Secretary RFK Jr. Angelica Peebles has got the latest on this. Angelica. Hey, Mel. Well, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that RFK Jr. is planning to dismiss all 16 members of the U.S. Preventative Service Task Force. That's the task force that decides which preventative services are covered by insurers.

9:01Those have to be covered. So things like cancer screenings. And so the Wall Street Journal is citing people familiar with the matter. This is not confirmed with HHS. We have reached out to see what more we can learn. But remember, just earlier this month, that meeting that they were supposed to have was canceled. And the Supreme Court basically affirmed that the secretary has control over this committee. And so now apparently we are seeing a shakeup similar to the one that we saw with the vaccine panel. So more to come for sure there. Mel. And then Angelica, as I understand it, there's additional controversy over, for instance, the move towards more animal testing, towards the use of organoids, for instance.

9:41That panel has fallen under some scrutiny as well. There's some criticism that he is appointing people who share the same viewpoint in terms of challenging mainstream science, mainstream medical consensus. And here we have sort of a similar situation going on with the panel being fired. Is there any pushback at all? Is there any grounds for pushback at this point? I'm sure there will be. I mean, according to this report, Apparently, the reason for dismissing these members is that they are, quote, too woke. And so surely you should anticipate that we will see some changes potentially to those covered services that insurers have to cover.

10:19And so as those decisions start to play out, we've already seen it with the Vaccine Advisory Committee, for example. Remember, they decided to vote against the use of a preservative called thimerosal for some flu vaccines. really not a consequential decision in terms of just the impact because it's used in so few of the flu vaccines. But there was a lot of controversy over just the fact that they were voting on it at all because it's seen as settled science. It's seen as an issue that is near and dear to the hearts of anti-vaxxers. And so we are sure to see more of these debates in the months to come.

10:54All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. Tim, I'm going to go back to you because you're just talking about positions in pharmaceutical companies. And here we are, we've gotten an FDA, excuse me, not FDA, but an FDA and HHS. It's basically turning things on its head in terms of approvals and challenging science that already has been widely accepted. Yeah, get ready for some sarcasm. I think cancer screenings are crazy, right? Right. So I don't know. I do think we've priced a lot of bad news into especially pharma, where we know all about exclusivity, patent cliffs, where we know all about certain dynamics around where there's competitive landscape with with a handful of the leaders.

11:42The health care sector, so more acutely, whether it's UNH, which is its own story, but some of the hospitals and the other providers, I think, have a lot of open questions. I think as a group, though, you have a place where, one, we started to see the charts give you some bottoming. And two, you don't have to be attached to the most uncertain parts of this. I think there are tried and true companies that are operating both the consumer products, the OTC, as well as the pharma space in health care. All right. Meantime, back to the broader markets. The VIX volatility index falling below 15 for the first time since February.

12:16For more, let's bring in Mandy Hsu, head of derivatives market intelligence for SIBO Global Markets. Mandy, it's always great to see you. Great to be here. It's not just the VIX. I mean, volatility across asset classes, bond volatility is also very low. What does this tell you? Yeah, to me, I think it's a sign that what we're seeing in the markets is very much fundamentally driven, right? The fact that equities keep making new all-time highs and volatility is falling across all asset classes. It's a sign that economic data continues to come in better than expected, and earnings are holding up much better than expected as well.

12:46So I think, to me, that's reassuring because there's a lot of headlines around complacency and frothiness in the market. Certainly, I think there are corners in the market that are very frothy. But ultimately, I think this rally and the fact that the low volatility that we're seeing is really across the board, across asset classes, tell me it's really based on strong macro fundamentals. It's interesting that you can come and say that, you know, it's confirmation of the good news story about the economy when so many people are saying, no, it's complacency and we're in for a giant pullback. So I would say if only equity volatility was low, if only the VIX is low and bond market and other asset class volatilities are high, certainly I would say there's something going on.

13:26The other thing I would caution, though, is just a lot of times people look at the level of the VIX and say, well, if it's low, it must be complacency. And the way that we actually evaluate it is against levels of realized volatility in the market. And VIX at 14 may be low, but the realized volatility in the market right now, we're talking about 6, right, 6%. That's at a one-year low. So actually the spread, the difference, what we call the volatility risk premium, or how much additional risk premium that option traders are pricing in for the forward outlook, that's actually toward a one-year high.

13:56So that's telling you that really why volatility is so low is because market continues to grind higher. And then actually in the forward outlook, options traders are actually pricing in some risk premium. So what would happen if the Fed were to cut? What do you think would happen to the VIX and therefore the markets or the other way around? Ask the question, I guess. Yeah, certainly. I think any question about the Fed rate cut really comes down to why are they cutting, right? So a lot of times people think reflexively rate cuts are good for equities. And if you look at it historically, that's not always the case.

14:26If the Fed is cutting because economic data is coming much worse than expected, then you often get situations where Fed is cutting and stocks are selling off. But all that said, I think right now, if the Fed were to cut, it would probably be because of the inflation outlook and inflation coming in much teamer than expected, in which case I actually think that could be another positive catalyst for the rally. Now, we also have a tariff deadline, which is coming up, right? And I think this has happened in the past. It just keeps getting pushed. So at this point, volatility is low because everybody's saying, well, it's either going to there's going to be deals made or it's going to get pushed again, I think is what the volatility index is telling us, if I'm correct.

14:59Yeah, so it's interesting, actually. So I would say coming into the July 9th, the previous two deadlines, the April 2nd, Liberation Day and the July 9th deadlines, there was really nothing being priced in the options market in terms of risk premium for that particular event. Really kind of telling you that people really didn't take it seriously. This time around, heading into the August 1st deadline next week, we're actually seeing a little bit of a kink in the volatility term structure, which is another way of saying an excess bump in volatility for options that are expiring August 1st. Now, you could say that's really a sign of anxiety around tariffs.

15:32But I actually think it's because it's also happening the same day as nonfarm payrolls. And it's really the macroeconomic outlook that is driving that premium. But certainly, I think the market is telling you, you know, expect a little bit additional volatility next Friday. So just with the strategist hat on, you would expect this market rally to continue? So I would say, you know, for the past couple of weeks, we've been saying the pink trade is actually to the upside. But I do think there's been enough capitulation at this point and enough people kind of throwing the towel on hedges. We've definitely seen that in the options market that at this point, the pain trade is probably to the downside.

16:05But it all depends, obviously, on what happens with trade, what happens with the data, what happens at the Fed meeting. So lots going on. All right, Mandy, thank you so much. Great to see you, Mandy Hsu, SIBO. Carter, I'll go back to you. And I know that, you know, just just the lines that you look at. But when it comes to the argument that volatility is low across assets, that seems very interesting in terms of a signal that that, you know, where we are in the markets is confirmed by low volatility. Right. Well, if you think about it, volatility is lowest when you're in a persistent downtrend.

16:43There's no volatility. You're just going down and down or to persistent uptrend, which is the current circumstance. Volatility spikes around transition periods. This is elemental, right? So vol is very high in the financial crisis, low in 08 and 09. Vol is very high in June, July of 2000, the dot-com peak as we were coming off. Now, where the VIX is now in relation to, the VIX goes back to about 1990. And if you look at the sort of average level going back that far, it's around 17%. We're not that so far below the average in all the data. Either way, VIX is not a timing tool. And remember, it's a third derivative.

17:27First, you have the stocks themselves. VIX is based on options, which are a second derivative. And then there's VIX, which is a third. This is not something you can trade the VIX, but it is not a timing tool for buying and selling or determining overbought or oversold conditions in the market. Well, it is good that it is low so you can hedge your positions in a cost-effective manner. Yeah, and that's where I would say, I mean, coming into next week, I think the question is what could actually spark that volatility, right? So I think we need to see good earnings, especially from all the big tech companies.

17:58We need to either see deals getting made or the deadline passing. But again, at some point, I mean, do you have to have a deadline? I don't know. I think that's the question, which, you know, is not getting price in at this point. But if everything goes to plan, if you keep getting earnings that are beating, if you keep getting positive economic data, which we've been having, you'll probably still have this low volatility for a while. In terms of the earnings specifically, it's a big roster. Yes. Which are you looking at most closely? Well, Meta is my biggest position, so definitely Meta. And the promise of AI, right?

18:28We're going to hear what their spend is. I'm a little concerned that the spend might be even higher. He's been very aggressive talking about how much they're going to spend. And with the number we saw from Alphabet, I'm a little concerned about that. That's good for NVIDIA, but that would be my number one one to look at. All right. Meantime, Intel shares sharply lower after yesterday's earnings report. While the semi-company beat revenue expectations, it did give weak guidance for the current quarter. The new CEO also announced big cuts to chip factory construction. The stock initially was higher after report, but closed down today 8.5%.

18:57Intel also telling CNBC Today it plans to set up its networking and communications business as a standalone company. So down 8.5%, Tim. And I think you summed it pretty well on the back of the call yesterday. What does Intel want to be? Because, you know, the fab, the sort of the national foundry narrative, maybe that's not going to happen at this point with Lip Boutin. Well, it's not going to happen if you keep cutting CapEx and you keep cutting resources and you don't have access to capital, which I think they have access to capital. I think they have access to partnerships. They certainly should have Washington support in some capacity where it's, you know, make America a semiconductor again.

19:37So I just don't like hearing a strategy that's not there. I don't want an earnings call where all I hear about are cost cutting and we're going to really watch that next dollar spent. That's great, except for the fact that we've heard about that. I actually it makes me also more concerned about the balance sheet, which which has been under duress for some time. So that's right. Foundry, Fobchips, where are we? Where are we with their core business and even GPU and where AMD? You know, this started where AMD was eating their lunch about five years ago. And it's led to a place where there's zero that Intel has done on the AI chip side.

20:13In fact, we've learned over the last four or five quarters that they've scrapped that, turned it internal. You have to say it was just a disappointment. No one needs to hear that we beat the top line with lower margin and we're cutting a lot of costs. Yeah. I mean, they're even, you know, slowing down production of their Ohio chip factory. And I would imagine to the Trump administration, that is a problem in terms of their agenda of making America the place where semiconductors will be manufactured. That whole story. I feel like it's a little bit of the Charlie Brown thing. Right. Put the football out there every time.

20:44Well, we're going to do this and well, we're going to do that. And then every time pull it away. And it is I can't make a case for it. Not long. Yeah, I mean, that's really, I think, been the one thing that analysts have been saying, OK, if they can get this foundry together, I mean, that's really been their longest term upside. And now you can see they're really not fully committed to it. And I think that's really the problem there is they're not two feet in. And until they are, I don't think you're going to see an upside here. What snappy assessment are you going to make, Carter, about the Intel chart?

21:11Well, I mean, it has all the things one would consider undesirable. Its relative performance to the market is poor. Its relative performance to the tech sector is poor. Its relative performance to its brother and its peers, to the SOX index, is poor. It exhibits bearish price volume correlation. It dropped in gap just, you know, today. What would be the case for being long? So the simple, I guess, conclusion is the burden is on the bulls to make a case. The bear just points to the facts. Coming up, regional wrangling. Why investors are running away from Synovus and Pinnacle Financial's potential tie-up and why one trader is buying in and a cable crash charter hitting more than one year lows after dropping nearly 200 ,000 subscribers in Q2.

21:58We dig in on the eye popping numbers right after this.

22:10Welcome back to Fast Money Pinnacle. Financial and Synovus both sinking today after the banks announced an$8.6 billion merger. The deal would create one of the largest regional banks in the southeast with more than$115 billion in combined assets. Karen, you actually bought both stocks today. I did. That's what we call in their scar business a Texas hedge. You buy one instead of shorting it, you buy them both. And I thought, so this is billed as a merger of equals. Historically, mergers of equals generally have problems. So that's one thing to keep in mind. But the thing that I think is most interesting here, the stocks' reactions, clearly the street was disappointed with this.

22:47But I think it makes both of them attractive. I think it makes Synovus particularly attractive because they would be owning only 48.5 % of the combined entity versus 51.5 % for Pinnacle. That means there's a change of control. When you're in a change of control situation, you are basically for sale. So if there's anyone else that wants to take a look at Synovus, now is the time to do it. Also, I don't hate the merger on its merits, right? I think there was some things to like. Interesting to me that the CEO of the acquirer will not be the CEO going forward. That's interesting. And so I think they talk about how accretive it could be.