Big Tech Earnings On Deck… And President Trump Signs GENIUS Act 7/18/25

0:03Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here is what's on tap tonight. Big tech on deck results from the first two mag seven stocks to report this quarter. What we can expect to hear and what stage will set for the rest of the market and Ethereum playing catch up. The crypto more than 40 percent just this month, far outpacing the likes of Bitcoin. Is it time to put stock in this trade and how much higher can it go? Plus, housing starts rising in June. But is the industry really setting a strong foundation? that Sarepta sinks over new concerns for its muscular dystrophy drug and a breakout for Alibaba.

0:39How the traders are playing the rally in the Chinese internet giant. I'm Courtney Reagan, in for Melissa Lee this evening, coming to you live from Studio BF and NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, we have Bono and Eisen, Courtney Garcia, Tim Seymour, and Mike Coe. And we will start with the countdown to a very big week of earnings. Alphabet and Tesla headlining next week's action. But we also get second quarter results from names like General Motors, Coca-Cola, Chipotle and more. The reports come as broader markets continue to trade near all time highs. The Nasdaq setting another record at the close.

1:11And while the S &P also set an intraday record, both it and the Dow ended the day with slight losses. But will next week's results fuel the fire for stocks or put an end to their record rally? Tim, what do you think? We're going to get an awful lot of reads from, yes, big tech. But like we mentioned, Coca-Cola, General Motors, Reed's really across the board. What should we be expecting? How do we position? Well, I think the market is certainly positioned that the tariff impact is less than a headwind than we thought going into Q1, or at least expecting Q1 earnings, I should say. And so it's a very different backdrop.

1:46And I think it sets the market up for possibly a little bit more caution here as we really get into the meat of it. But if we talk about Google, this is a company that has really underperformed the rest of the Mag7. It's probably done half of what Microsoft has done over the last three months. And I think that that setup is actually quite good. Comps are easy. I think there's better ad spend with a little more clarity around tariffs. I think what we've seen in terms of their cloud business, it's fine. I think YouTube is going to be a bright spot. And I think the company itself is priced at least attractively, even relative to itself, given the backdrop of where people are always concerned about where multiples are coming in.

2:22So it's a big week. I do think that the earnings expectations overall from the analyst community, from the investor community have moved higher. And I think that's something that needs to be watched. Bono, I'm sort of looking forward to some focus on the fundamentals when it comes to companies rather than perhaps the big macro picture, although it is impossible to separate the two all the time. What are your expectations? Do you agree with what he's talking about with sort of the difference in Google and Microsoft? Does Google have some ground to make up based on what they tell us? Well, in terms of performance, they certainly do.

2:54You know, it's trailed. The MAG-7 is now the MAG-3 or 4. And that continues to kind of, we see switching in and switching out of who those top performers are there. I think with the Alphabet story, it really is going to be about whether or not their incumbent search business has the legs necessary and whether or not they are setting up the transition into AI kind of driven search. And they can kind of defend ground there. Again, I don't think it's necessarily important that they get it right this quarter. But I do think, being that they've been under scrutiny, that investors are really going to be looking under the hood to see whether or not they have a legitimate answer to what their plans are going for.

3:31The other thing that I think you're going to start to kind of see is insight into CapEx spend. And we have had this kind of AI resurgent. If you start to see a bit of pullback in CapEx or CapEx-related plans, perhaps people think twice about that. But I think ultimately we do want to see the earnings from these tech players, the mega caps, because them and the AI adjacent plays have really been what have taken us to this next leg to hire. Yes, so many interesting points there. Of course, AI, Courtney, has been sort of this key phrase that everybody wants to say and be a part of. When will we see some of that capex that's been plowed into AI by some of these big names really start to show some dividends in the form of margin expansion?

4:10Do we need to see it this quarter? Will that separate sort of the wheat from the trough? I don't know if you need to see it this quarter, but we do need to see it at some point. I mean, that is the concern is that there is so much capital expenditure at the moment, but we don't know at what point you're actually going to see them monetizing that. And I do think when you're looking at Google, who's going to be reporting next week, their valuation is much cheaper than some of your others. So I think some of this has been discounted because people are a little concerned about the fact that their search business is the main driver of their business and that AI might start to cannibalize that.

4:40Anytime you go to Google, the first thing that comes up is that AI search. A lot of people are using that, and that's going to diminish their ad revenue. And I think that is why the valuation has come down so much. And so we need to see when they're reporting earnings, is that happening? And do they have a path to really utilize that going forward, to Bono's point? So I do think the good news about them is the bar isn't extremely high for them like it is some of the other companies. But I think we need to see how they do next week. You know, Mike, I said to Bono, and maybe we can actually focus on the fundamentals and sort of put the macro aside for a while.

5:10That is impossible all the time. When you're thinking about the macroeconomic environments, the tariff situation still being so fluid, do you feel like it's a safer maybe trade, not investment, if you're thinking about short term and what we know right now about tariffs, to sort of look at a company in tech that offers more services rather than sort of the physical goods? Are chips at a bigger risk than some of these service providers when you want to play this game? Well, you know, it's interesting. You might have thought that chips were at risk, basically, because you might have some restrictions, for example.

5:42And then we saw what happened with the H20s and then some of AMD's chips and reopening, basically, the sales of those to China. And that's basically what's helped propel us to new all-time highs. You know, both Bono and Courtney and Tim all talking about Alphabet and their search business. I mean, that's more than 70 percent of their revenues. And it's kind of interesting when you think about it, looking at that one, because it is trading at a significant discount to the S &P. They have so many good things about their business. They've got Waymo, which is basically a kicker in there for nothing.

6:10And we've got Tesla reporting next week. And part of the big valuation premium that Tesla enjoys, if we're going to talk about fundamentals relative to the legacy automakers, is because of their self-driving technology. And Alphabet has that. Arguably, they have the best of breed. So, you know, I think the real issue and one final thing I would quickly add about AI is that Alphabet was basically a leader in AI until the large language models suddenly just got released on the public. and chat GPT. And now I guess Grok are the things that everybody's paying attention to. But I think if we just keep an eye on that search, I was at a presentation earlier this week, a big conference in Las Vegas.

6:47People were asked to hold their hand up how many people are still using Google for search. And the majority of the hands were going up for that. So, you know, if that remains true in their earnings, then that's going to be good news for them. Tim, Mike brings up, of course, Tesla. It's a name we talk about a lot. We're going to hear a little bit more next week. Shares were up today. Is there a trade there ahead of the results? I think the trade for Tesla right now tends to be more on the macro. And unfortunately, if you're an investor, where we had gotten maybe two quarters ago, really even before Trump joined and Doge Dynamics, excuse me, he joined Trump and the Doge Dynamics was that the company on fundamentals was accepted to be under pressure and that you weren't going to start to see some inflection on sales if you were going to see it until really 3Q or 4Q of this year.

7:37Then the stock got ahead of itself in terms of where the political connective, whatever we're calling the connectivity to the White House, really was and what it meant. And obviously, it's kind of run the course and now maybe in kind of the reverse opposite at this point. I think Tesla, to me, is one that has drifted out, first of all, of that Mag 7, just despite the fact that it still is measured in the same breath. I just think Tesla is a story that now really has to prove. They have to prove the deliveries in the 2Q came in much lower than expected. Margins seem to be contracting. We know China's an issue.

8:11And I think the talk about robo-taxi has been overdone. I've never, at least not in years, have I liked Tesla purely on valuation without getting lost in what some of the macro is around the story. I just think it's expensive. And I think there's a lot priced into businesses we just don't have yet. Fano, what do you make of Tesla? It's hard for me to disagree with what Tim said. I mean, you're talking about getting back to the fundamentals. But frankly, this stock does not trade on fundamentals. In terms of the political connectivity to the White House, I do think that's really what kind of took us to those previous levels in the high 400s.

8:49And then we saw that subsequent sell-off. I tend to think that there's not really any catalyst for movement here. I'd probably sell a strangle, being that I'm a bit more cautious just on the name. I might buy a cheap downside put just to protect that. But it's really, I just think this thing kind of continues to trade sideways. I agree in terms of Waymo versus Tesla, in terms of SFD, where you want to kind of be there, and in terms of the valuation reflecting what value you're actually getting. So if I want to play it, I'd rather be in a discounted alphabet versus a Tesla that, frankly, we have enough headline risk on the macroeconomic front.

9:24There's also extreme headline risk on the Tesla front. So it just makes it tough for me to allocate the incremental dollar there. You mentioned a trade versus an investment. I really do think you probably sell volatility and then protect your downside with maybe a strangle just because you just never know. Good advice. Good perspective. Well, meantime, our next guest thinks tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell could reach a boiling point by the next interest rate decision scheduled for later this month. Ben Emmons is founder and chief investment officers at FedWatch Advisors.

9:56Ben, thank you for being with us. I mean, my goodness. I can't remember what day that was this week, but it was a long day and a short day all in one. We had we thought we knew one thing. And then an hour and a half later, we knew something different. even though the Fed is supposed to be independent, apolitical, there are also people. Jerome Powell is a person. How is it really possible for him and the committee to move forward and continue to do their job seemingly unaffected by this? I mean, isn't everyone just going to be shrouding every move, decision and discussion point in sort of a curiosity point?

10:31Why did they really do this? Yeah, I think that's right, Courtney. You get now far more scrutiny on this July meeting than we would normally have, you know, just irrespective of the economic data. You know, we got reasonable inflation data this week, and we had good employment data the other day, and actually yesterday we retail sales too. So we got an economy that's strong, could keep this Fed on hold for the time being, but the attention to this meeting is only building up. You saw overnight Governor Waller really coming out with a, I would call a pounding table view of like, we can cut rates now.

11:04So it kind of adds into the mix of this, what's going to be happening here at this meeting. Are they really tilting towards easing while you actually have an economy that's strong? I think that tension kind of displayed itself this week in the markets when it really became apparent that they wanted to remove Powell. You saw the volatility reappear. I think this is what we could expect going into this July meeting because the VIX is low. The probability for a cut is priced near zero. So you could get some tension here, I think, as all the scrutiny comes together. Hey, Ben, it's Courtney Garcia here, the other Courtney who's on the desk.

11:36When we're looking at this, we've clearly had a lot of headlines, right? And at this point in time, Trump is saying, OK, he's not going to fire Powell. But clearly there is an issue there. They're going head to head. He doesn't want him in. So at what point does it matter if he actually fires him or not? Because at this point, he's kind of out the door. And what does that do to rate changes, if anything at all, or anything that we should expect as investors? I think, Courtney, what you're adding to is basically about the shadow chair, right? Ultimately, we all know that Powell will be out in about a year from now, actually less than a year.

12:06And whether he actually gets removed in between or not, it's really about this committee and then about this next candidate and how that candidate is going to interact outside of the committee. I think that's what the market will pay indeed attention to. But nonetheless, it's still a committee. So as you had this example of Waller really making a strong case for a cut, it doesn't mean that the cut actually will happen. it's still the FOMC that makes that decision ultimately. I do think, though, that, you know, could you get some sort of a group think here where people are all going to be on the table saying, well, a cut is definitely possible.

12:39I think that's the biggest signal out of this meeting is that from here, what cuts will happen, how soon? And there was a little change here with Daly the other day of indicating that she's also on board for this next round of cuts. So, pile out of the way, yes or no, it's the committee that drives it. I do think they will make signal more cuts from here. Hey, Ben, what's going on? It's Bono. Great to see you, as always. Just quickly, I know you give a lot of great insights about the Fed, and typically we focus a lot of our attention around large publicly traded companies. But there is a large cohort in terms of the small business community that perhaps isn't feeling the same euphoria as might be reflected in the stock market.

13:17Can you speak to how rate cuts might affect the front end of the curve and those companies that are probably borrowing with short-term variable rate debt and how perhaps that might be presenting a tug of war between what we're seeing from full employment versus what we're seeing from the small business community. Yeah, and I think that's a good point, Bono, because you have companies that you mentioned that are very reliant on short-term funding. And so rate cuts there would potentially help, so to speak. In other words, if you do get cuts, the yield curve should normalize further. The short-term rate should get lower and those companies should be able to borrow at a lower rate.

13:53Yet, you know, it may not happen really because of the strength of the economy. And that difference there of when it will happen and the rate difference for these companies, I think, matters. I also think for these companies, their business outlook has been clouded by the tariffs. And if you look at the Atlanta Fed, they put out a business inflation outlook. That's actually still quite high relative to where, you know, let's say market-based expectations are for inflation. So these companies are sitting in a bit of a pickle here. So ray cuts actually would help them a lot. People have always connected small caps and ray cuts as a positive thing.

14:26I could see a big rally. I think that would actually be the case. But if we're getting quick cuts, that's, you know, that's where the tension is currently. We don't know this yet. So I think these companies have to bite it a bit. Ben Emmons, thank you so much for joining us here on a Friday going into a weekend with probably still a lot of question marks, which is when I turned to you, Tim, I think earlier this week it was Guy that said, I think we're going to get some news this weekend between Trump and Powell. Do you think that's true? I don't know. I'm not sure. As we've all just discussed, the dynamic around whether he stays or goes, we're certainly aware that there's a force that wants to change and be aggressive with the short end of the curve and probably can't control the long end of the curve.

15:08The weekend is maybe more focused on Japan. You have elections. You have dynamics that I think could have a big impact on where JGB yields trade. And for those that don't follow JGB yields, I do think that Japanese interest rates can be upward pressure on U.S. interest rates if, in fact, you start to see some of the minority parties gain more ground. And they've been certainly negative on current, call it BOJ policy, but also they've been pushing for tax cuts and slightly more aggressive dynamics, but similar to some of the dynamics that this administration is pushing for. By the way, I think these are consistent political undertones around the world.

15:45So a lot of this could still be leading to the longer end of the curve. If you've got a firing over the weekend of Powell, the long end of the curve would react. Whether it would be quickly, I don't know. Over time, I feel confident it would. And I do think that this weekend around Japan is something to watch for investors. Yeah, Ben Emmons would agree with you, Tim. He didn't quite get to that point. But to your point, he also does agree that we could see those JGBs hit new highs if those smaller minority parties win. He calls it the Japanese Liz Trust moment. But we're going to move on here to the housing trade.

16:17I mean, overall, housing starts rising 4.6 percent in June from the prior month. But construction of single-family homes actually falling to 11-month lows. And that data point sending home builders lower, with the ITB home construction ETF falling by more than 0.5 percent and closing out its worst week since May. Mike, obviously, we spend so much time focusing on this area of the economy because it does tell us so much. And for many Americans, this is sort of their largest financial asset. What do you make of the data that we've seen and what that portends for the shares associated with them going forward?

16:49Well, I mean, these stocks were already pretty cheap going into it, so there was a lot of bad news priced in. I mean, of course, we pay a lot of attention to it for two reasons. It's a quality of life issue and it's a big segment of the U.S. economy. And really, you know, what we're dealing with on this single family housing front is just affordability. You know, median median incomes have not risen essentially with median home prices. They were propelled upwards by low rates. And then when rates reversed, it just basically, you know, hurt the affordability significantly. And that's creating a lot of pressure, regardless of the incentives, it seems that a lot of the home builders at the lower end have obviously tried to introduce.

17:26At the higher end, so we're looking at the toll brothers and things like that, maybe the affordability issue isn't quite as critical. But, you know,$420 ,000, $430 ,000 median home price is, you know, the highest that we've seen in this country, frankly, with rates where they are right now. And that's going to continue to be a headwind until we either see home prices fall, which has other implications, or we see rates fall. Yeah. I mean, Courtney, obviously there's a lot of strain on the market when it comes to supply as well. But when you're looking at the stocks themselves, do you feel like these are possible trades or not right here?

17:56I do. And I do think this is going to be a longer term trade. I think short term there is a lot of pressure here because even if the Fed does cut rates and everybody talked a little bit about this earlier, they're affecting the short end of the curve, not the long end of the curve. The problem is the majority of mortgages are less than 4 % right now. So when you see the mortgage rates that are in between 6 % and 7%, they've still got to come down a long way before any of your existing homeowners start to sell. You start to see more in the market. So that is going to be beneficial for your home builders who can start to bridge that gap, but mortgage rates are still very high, and I don't see them coming down significantly enough to bridge that gap.

18:28But longer term, there's a real supply constraint. I mean, it depends who You asked, anywhere from four to seven million, seven million shortage of houses out there. And when you got the additional housing starts, that looks like a headline good news. But it's all apartments. It's not individual homes, which is what a lot of people are looking for. So longer term, I think there's a trade to be had there. I do think there's still some short term pressure, however. Do you think there's an options trade in this one? Oh, there's always an options trade. Because whether you have movement or not, you're able to use options.

18:56So I think I think Mike would agree. where I'm definitely championing the old options action crew. Listen, I think I would probably be looking to either sell that previous bottom, sorry, sell puts in that previous bottom of ITB, or sell put spreads in some of the, like the DHI, the Toll Brothers, and perhaps KBH. I'm with Courtney. I think long term you probably have some upside. I don't think you're going to get a short term catalyst, and I think it's an opportunity for you to bring in some premium. All right. Well, coming up, all the details behind the earnings moves in Amex, Charles Schwab and Netflix, plus shares of Sarepta Therapeutics plunging in today's session.

19:34The latest next on a controversial drug and how the FDA is responding. Don't go anywhere fast. Money is back in two.

19:50We've got a news alert on the latest name to join the S &P fintech firm. Block will replace Hess after that company's acquisition by Chevron closes. You can see shares here after hours moving up higher, almost 11.5%. Robinhood again overlooked. Those shares are down slightly. Well, two financial services stocks moving in opposite directions today, sticking in somewhat of the same vein. American Express dropping more than 2%. Despite a beat on the top and bottom lines, the company saying total spending on its cards jumped 7%, but travel spending was weaker than transactions for goods and services.

20:23Meanwhile, Charles Schwab of nearly 3 percent, hitting an intraday high dating back to its 1989. Hey, hey, Taylor Swift IPO. The company also beat estimates as a trading surge around the tariff volatility did help boost profits. Interesting here, Bono, and I find the action at Amex interesting because when I first looked at this, I thought, isn't this great for consumers? The spending up 7 percent. But the travel part of It was interesting. More spending on goods and services. What do you make of all of that when it says maybe more broadly about the consumer or the state of the economy? Well, I think in Amex's case, they clearly are appealing to a more well-heeled higher income.

20:59I want to make sure I'm choosy with my words here. But, yeah, well-heeled consumer. Aside from the travel and goods, and that's clearly part of their core business, their credit loss provision was actually slightly higher. And I know that they didn't make the same provisions that some of the banks and others made in previous quarters. But that did kind of jump out to me because I'm trying to understand, really, like reading the tea leaves, is there something that we're overlooking even in that upper cohort? Why are they now deciding to make those provisions? This is previous quarters where we thought perhaps there may be starting to show some cracks in the consumer.

21:40So for me, that stuck out a little bit in the report. But I still think if you're going to be in the space and you want the credit card exposure, you want the consumer exposure, this is squarely where you want to be. Well, meanwhile, Netflix dropping 5 % today, despite better than expected future earnings and upping its full year guidance. And it was the stock's worst day since April. It's now down nearly 10 % from its record high on June 30th. Mike Coe, I feel as if you did an options action trade on this one for us earlier in the week. What do you make of the action? Yeah, I mean, I did. And actually, we also put an article on the CNBC website.

22:12And really, my issue here with Netflix was simply that the stock was a bit extended. It's not because the fundamental story isn't robust. Like I have said many times, I think in the streaming wars, there's Netflix and then there's everybody else. And they're clearly in the lead. They have everything going for them. It was just a little bit of a problem on valuation. It was a little bit of a problem technically as well. I mean, I think the stock was about as high above the 150-day moving average as we've seen it in a long time. I still like it here. It actually, in some ways, hasn't even fallen back to that long-term moving average.