Consumer Crunch Intensifies… And International Opportunity 5/11/26

18:34Tim Seymour:Meantime, let's get to copper. That's been on a tear, closing at a fresh record high, now up almost 11 % in just the last week. the rally extending to the copper miners, MMG, Faraday Copper, Capstone Copper, Southern Copper, up double-digit percentages over the past five sessions. Katie, what do you see in the charts here? I think it's a breakout underway, and it feels like part of the broader sort of commodity bull cycle to us. We feel that we can see upside follow-through for copper, especially if it gets to an actual new high based on the generic contract, and there are no signs of upside exhaustion.

19:08So we're trying to respect the very meaningful long-term momentum shifts that we've seen in that area. That includes crude oil, which has a long-term momentum buy signal. And if we dial back to yields, they also are on the verge of that same signal. So the charts would definitely enhance what Guy is saying there with the yields potentially moving higher just in this longer-term slow shift. Look, commodities super cycle for sure. And I know it It seems like all we do is talk about gold and silver and things like that. How about iron ore? How about every part of the CRB rind? How about all types of feed inputs?

19:43And yes, copper is inflationary and it is Dr. Copper. And BHP and Rio Tinto, if you want an integrated miner, those are great charts. They're breaking out. That COPEX ETF is breaking out. Emerging markets, we're going to have a great conversation about this. I'll save it. I'll just say there's certain parts of the world that produce a lot of copper and they are in Latin America. So I think we've seen this trade before, and I think they go together, and I think you can find different pieces.

20:08Tim Seymour:Coming up, a CEO snub, President Trump being joined by CEOs of some of the largest companies. But there is one notable name that apparently didn't make the cut. Got more on that next. Plus, a binging beatdown as shares of Netflix continue to slide this month. We'll ask the traders if the stock can bounce back or if the streaming giant has more room to fall. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

20:31Melissa Lee:A History of the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99 % Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week, we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well known, many are not, but all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a history of the United States in 100 objects on the 99 % Invisible Feed, wherever you get your podcasts.

21:25Melissa Lee:by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

21:30Tim Seymour:There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. Stand still, not a chance. You're a lifelong learner who's come this far. Now we're here to help you keep going further. Capella University, what can't you do? Visit capella.edu to learn more. Welcome back to Fast Money. Who is who if CEOs set to join President Trump on his trip to China for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Elon Musk, Tim Cook, BlackRock's Larry Fink, Boeing's Kelly Ortberg, among the biggest names there. But there is one surprising omission. Our Megan Casella is naming that name. She's got some details here. Megan. Hey, Melissa, you might remember our Jim Cramer had none other than NVIDIA's Jensen Huang on Mad Money last week.

22:11And when Jim asked about the China trip, Jensen was a little coy. He said he'd let the president announce his decisions, but that if invited, he said it would be a privilege and a great honor to represent the United States and go to China with the president. Now, though, the list is out, and Jensen Huang is not on this list. And remember the timing. This trip comes as NVIDIA is awaiting approval from the Chinese government to be able to sell its H200 chips to Chinese firms. The U.S. government formally gave the green light back in January on that, but China has reportedly been blocking its companies from buying the chips.

22:43So what you would think be a lot to talk about there. Now, if you take a look at this list again, a range of industries are represented here. Micron and Qualcomm from the chip space, as well as Citi and Goldman, MasterCard and Visa, Cargill here as well. The expectation is that each of these executives may be signing some sort of an agreement with China, but we don't have much by way of specifics on that as of now. The White House is saying simply to expect deals in the aerospace, energy, and agricultural industries to come out of this trip.

23:10Tim Seymour:Melissa? All right, Megan, thanks. Megan Casella on that big trip. Do you think that it says something about whether or not NVIDIA will actually be able to export to China?

23:20Melissa Lee:No, I personally, I don't think so. I mean, I don't know why there's this omission, but I don't think it's a tell on the way NVIDIA is trading. And Tim's been talking about it. Certainly, the market doesn't seem to care. Well, it's a tell, though, because NVIDIA was very much a part of the Middle East trip in May of 25 when it was all about securing investment. All we talked about was like sovereign AI and where that was really you were starting to see a lot of follow through. So I just I think it's very complicated with NVIDIA. I think it might be a lot easier to have conversations because let's face it, what is China most concerned about?

23:52Yeah, you know, oil and stuff like that. It's all about supremacy of the internet and technology and innovation. That's all they care about. And NVIDIA is complicated right now.

24:03Melissa Lee:Well, I think the whole thing is complicated, right? If you think one wrong word about China and Taiwan, and it puts, you know, the president, and it puts us in a very difficult situation. If you look at the list of names, they all rely on this AI trade, or they're all involved in it. Even when you look at a Blackstone, you look at a Goldman Sachs, I mean, they're financing, they're banking, you know, and you can go, Boeing relies on, I mean, the list goes on and on. And so when you think about Jensen not being there, and you think about what they want to do, right, they want their technology to be embedded all over the world.

24:33Melissa Lee:And if China is not buying those chips, it makes it very difficult for certain parts of the world that are relying on China, like a digital belt and road for all intents and purposes. So to me, I think there is a scenario here where the wrong word about Taiwan could really be a difficult spot for us, for China, for Taiwan and Taiwan Semi.

24:53Tim Seymour:Taiwan Semi in particular. I mean, it is at the heart of all of the manufacture of all the chips. The hottest IPO, chip IPO that's going to come this week, Cerebris, makes its chips at Taiwan Semi. I mean, that's how intertwined this sort of trade is. We're talking about NVIDIA, And finally, it's broken well above 200, which is sort of like that line in the sand. So what do you see here? Well, it is a breakout, but it's not a confirmed breakout. And in this environment, we're always very adherent to our methodology because of how steep these rallies have been. So NVIDIA is up against this 212 resistance level.

25:26If it posts a couple of weekly closes above, that confirms a breakout. That would be a bullish intermediate term development within the long term uptrend. There are some minor signs of exhaustion from the DeMarc indicators, but breakouts can overrule those.

25:40Tim Seymour:There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

25:44Melissa Lee:Netflix chilling out as shares continue to slide since its last earnings report. But can the streaming giant turn things around or is it time to say goodbye to the binging? Plus, talk about good form, the massive run in one semi-testing company, and what the CEO sees in store for the stock after rallying more than 400 % over the past year. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

26:16Melissa Lee:A History of the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99 % Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week, we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell. about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well-known, many are not, but all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a history of the United States in 100 Objects on the 99 % Invisible Feed, wherever you get your podcasts. OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to$400 ,000 make it happen fast.

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27:15Tim Seymour:You've never been one to settle, stand down, or stand still. You're a lifelong learner, energized by excellence. There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. You've got competition to outrun, momentum to build on, and your own high standards to meet. Stop now? Not a chance. At Capella University, we help you catch what you're chasing because you've always had the drive. Now, go earn the degree. Capella University. What can't you do? Visit capella.edu to learn more. Welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix falling for the third day in a row, six of the last seven. The stock now down nearly 9 percent this month on pace for its worst month since January.

27:56Tim Seymour:And since the reported earnings on April 16th, Netflix is now down around 20 percent. Tim flagged this on the call earlier today. Well, it's seemingly one would have thought, let's get through this WBD thing. Let's get an outlook. There was a sense that when we got a 26 outlook, you know, a few months back, it was going to be better. In fact, it was soft and it was certainly not full of catalysts. And when a stock trades north of what basically all time highs on multiple, although not back where it was at 130 a share, it's certainly discounted from that. But the question is, what's going to get Netflix going?

28:30And I think we're going to need to see what's the next thing in terms of what are they what are they pushing in terms of new events? It's not going to be the traditional sports model. We got kind of excited that they were getting involved in these Christmas football games and whatnot. I think we're still all about their pricing power, what's going on internationally and the ad supported tier. But right now I've been adding to weakness over the last couple of weeks. It's not been a lot of fun. What do you feel about charts? You know, it's kind of a classic bearish reversal. Longer term, if you look at the monthly chart, you see all the indicators having rolled over.

29:06And then the relief rally off of that February low was very much characteristic of a countertrend move in how fast and furious it unfolded, came right up against the resistance at the 200-day moving average, which, of course, has also rolled over. And now it's pulled back already below initial support. So there's another 10 percent downside to the next support.

29:26Melissa Lee:Reed Hastings headline, I think, concerned a lot of people, maybe rightly so. I'm not sure, but, you know, I was one that thought once there was clarity on the Warner Brothers Paramount thing, the stock would get the 125, 130. It did not. It got to 107, I think. Now, all of a sudden, people are focused on valuation, which I don't think is ridiculous, but maybe it's expensive in an environment where growth is not there. Yeah, growth decelerating, I think, next year is probably what's kind of weighing on folks. But if you think about some of the options here, you know, I look at, you know, the Warner Brothers and the Paramount.

29:55Melissa Lee:I'd much rather own Netflix than this. I'd much rather own Netflix than most things in the entertainment space. Because to Tim's point, some of the things, some of the initiatives that they were putting in place prior to that bid, these are the things that are going to take a long-term sort of view. And that's what Reed Hastings was so good about. But I think the CEO who's been there the whole time, Sarandos, I mean, this is kind of the DNA in a way. So in many ways, I think they're probably going to use this unsettling period in media to kind of establish what the next 10 years are going to be like.

30:26How about this versus Disney? Well, I think what Dan is saying in terms of confidence, it's hard not to be confident in Netflix, given the execution that they've had. And again, I would just go out and say almost 70 percent of their engagement is non-English speaking in terms of, again, both the content and the hours engaged. But I think Disney has been clearly for what has been an investment for me. I've been an investor. This is a trader stock. And right now, I think the trade in Disney is a better trade.

30:57Tim Seymour:Coming up in equipment, Quintupling shares a semi-testing company. Form factor surging more than 400 percent over the past year. Can the rally keep running? The CEO will join us next, fresh off ringing the closing bell right here at the NASDAQ. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

31:14Melissa Lee:Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:29Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Stock. Starting the week in the green, the Dow climbing 95 points. The S &P and Nasdaq both with small gains, notching fresh record closes. Some after hours action, shares of hims and hers lower after missing estimates on the top and the bottom lines. Form Factor ringing the closing bell at the Nasdaq today, holding its investor day as well. The$11 billion company makes testing and measurement products that are used to test chips before they're added to circuits. Its customers include NVIDIA, Intel, and Samsung. The stock has been surging alongside the AI chip trade up more than 400 percent over the last year.

31:59Tim Seymour:CEO Mike Schlesser joins us now on set. Mike, welcome. Thanks for having me. You've been CEO since 2014, so you've seen this industry through cycles. And I'm just wondering, for those who say it is different this time around, that it's less cyclical because of things like subscription memory. I mean, is it less cyclical? Is this different, do you think? I think structurally the semiconductor industry is cyclical. Now we're in a very strong upcycle right now. No question about it. Demand, a whole new vector of demand from the high-performance compute silicon powering AI has really driven demand from our customers and their customers to unprecedented levels to a place where the whole supply chain is catching up.

32:41Now, if that demand continues, we'll continue to be in a strong upcycle, right? And all the indications are that demand is going to continue. So all of us in the supply chain are investing.

32:51Tim Seymour:So, but you do believe that it is, will we see it the same sort of boom and bust cycle that we've seen in the past or is it smoothed? I don't know whether it's smoothed. If you look at the underlying dynamics, but the semiconductor industry certainly is more broad, right? First, we had PCs a couple of decades ago, then we added mobile. Now you see semiconductors being pretty pervasive, powering high-performance compute, but in all kinds of consumer applications as well. And that should help the cyclicality of the industry.

33:20Melissa Lee:So as quickly as you saw this demand and this kind of capacity constraint, right, couldn't it go the opposite way if there was kind of a pullback in demand and then you'd have a situation where you'd have such overcapacity? Like, isn't that like you just said, it's traditionally very cyclical. The booms and busts are the thing that makes this kind of industry a really interesting one and probably challenging for you. But when you think about like your stock, it's gone parabolic. These are not normal moves. And so you could assign that to some of the behavior that you're seeing in ordering. You know, there is gravity, right?

33:52Melissa Lee:There is something like that. So we should expect at some point demand to come back in and then overcapacity. How does the industry deal with that? Well, I think the industry has gotten a lot harder to add capacity in this industry, right? Moore's Law, you're all familiar with, made it really easy for our customers to produce twice as many transistors every two years. Moore's Law is basically dead, right? And so resorting to the way to add capacity now is not to shrink chips, it's to build big factories. And it takes years to build these big factories, as you've seen with TSMC in Arizona, Samsung in Korea.

34:26These things now take a long time to come online, especially at the scale that the industry is operating at today.

34:32Melissa Lee:Mike, you have 36 percent of market share of a growing pie. My question to you is, what's the barriers of entry to get into your business? Yeah, the barriers are pretty high, right? Most places in the semiconductor supply chain, there's a ton of technology, and that technology is applied to some of the key customers you talked about. We work with those customers every day on optimizing our R &D spend, our technology, applying it to problems that they want us to solve. That becomes a pretty sticky business, right? And so those customer relationships, as we shared with people at the Investor Day today, are really important to the long-term sustainable competitive advantage.

35:11There's also a ton of intellectual property and innovation in the products we build. And so there's a competitive moat there as well. Do we have competitors? Sure. But it's pretty concentrated, just like it is in the wafer fab space. Mike, help us, your customer base run a bit of a kind of a gamut within the semiconductor space, even though some of them are in the exact same business. But as we've seen in the markets, this rotation within the semiconductor space, can you impute from some of what you're seeing with your customers. You talked about more consumer applications. And is there something more we can read from this and from what you're seeing on the demand side?

35:48Yeah, it's typically a very hard, short-term forecast to read. That's one of the reasons why our strategy's been to partner with all the leaders and build a diversified revenue base. It's very difficult to play catch-up when an application takes off. So HBM, great example, driving our business today. hey, we shipped our first HBM probe card, our first HBM product to our number one customer over a decade ago, right? And that stickiness, that continued evolution of the relationship, you know, those are the places you have to be when the demand takes off because these things are so complicated, it's just impossible to pedal and catch up.

36:25Tim Seymour:I'm just wondering from your standpoint, you said Moore's law is dead, which is a very interesting statement to hear from somebody in the industry, but how should we think about how chips are becoming more efficient, maybe not by compute power when it comes to Moore's Law, but in terms of efficiency and the buildout, the associated assumed buildout that is happening around the data center, whether it be power or cooling systems and things like that. I mean, shouldn't we believe that chips will become more energy efficient, for instance, and so therefore that buildout may be overstated at this point?

36:57Tim Seymour:I mean, how should we think about the development? Yeah, there's a couple of different ways we think about it anyway. When I said Moore's Law is dead, I mean shrinking transistors, getting faster, cheaper transistors, but this is a very innovative industry. And so us and our customers continue to work on other ways to make more efficient, more capable compute chips. So things like advanced packaging, which you may have heard of, kind of taking over the mantle for Moore's Law. It is one of the reasons why our business is, as strong as it is, test becomes absolutely enabling for advanced packaging.

37:31Won't get into the details here, but the industry is super innovative. And so all these different tricks to continue to increase compute efficiency, co-package optics, another one, right? Now the semiconductor industry, not just running on electricity or electrons, optics and photons becoming a big part. And I think that's one of the reasons people are enthusiastic about us as well. We've got a great position with co-package optics.

37:56Tim Seymour:Mike, great to see you. Thank you for coming by. Keep us posted. Thanks for having us. are a form factor. F-O-R-M is a ticker on that. How does the chart look? Great. You can imagine. Parabolic.

38:07Melissa Lee:Yeah. Good momentum. Look, great story. That's the question. You know, this parabolic move, it's a five-bagger, I think, since September of last year, which is extraordinary and deservedly so. But I think the average price target, according to the facts, that is about 150. That's where the stock closed today, about 151.

38:23Tim Seymour:I feel like the part of the commentary that you hung on to is, yes, it is still cyclical. Yeah.

38:28Melissa Lee:I mean, we know this is going to happen. It's just a matter of when, right? And it demands, I guess, how bad it is. And when you think about, you know, the end of Moore's law, I mean, Jensen has been talking about that, I think, for five years or so. So if you're thinking about double the capacity of, right, transistors and, you know, power, and you're going to have roughly the same price, well, he's in a caper seed for that to happen. But you know who's not going to be? Micron, Intel, AMD, right? We've moved away from GPUs. That's what the story is right now. It's clusters of CPUs. Well, CPUs traditionally have also been very cyclical because we've seen lots of consumer-led downturns.

39:04Melissa Lee:Well, right now, if we see less demand for AI servers, then all of the capacity that's gone online is going to be, not all of it, but a whole heck of a lot of it is going to be idle. And that's why these things are so cyclical. So to me, as much as you might see overshooting to the upside as far as orders, it's going to go the opposite way, too, when we see a pullback in demand. Totally my own interpretation, but I heard, you know, sixth inning tops, maybe fifth inning from his interpretation of where we are on this cycle. And we know it's cyclical.

39:33Tim Seymour:Coming up, charting abroad, what Katie Stockton sees in the international technicals and how it's holding up to the market stateside. More of that when Fast Money returns.

39:43Melissa Lee:The Stone Conference, May 12th in New York City. Be there in person to hear market moving ideas from the biggest names in investing. This year's lineup includes Jim Chanos, David Einhorn, Mark Lazzari, and Orlando Bravo, plus NVIDIA's chief software architect, Jonathan Ross, for his insight on what's next for the AI industry. All proceeds go to Memorial Sloan Kettering's pediatric cancer fighting program. The Soane Conference is where Wall Street unites to fight childhood cancer. For tickets and more information, go to soaneconference.org.

40:18Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. ETS for the international market continue to make gains this year. The iShares Emerging Markets ETF is now up nearly 25 % since January. So Katie's been taking a look at the charts with the grip. How do they look? Well, we have seen good participation broadly in the uptrend around the world. When we look at the ratios, that's where we find more points of interest. If we're comparing the IFA countries, which has developed global versus the U.S., and then also emerging countries versus the U.S., I think that's where the fascination is, because we have seen a pretty distinct long-term turnaround in those ratios that began last year, and we think will persist this year.

40:55I don't think it will be a dramatic phase of outperformance, but certainly a more balanced phase of relative performance between international and the U.S. And that is a change and it is a positive one for international managers, of course. And it does, you know, sort of draw attention to the concentration of the leadership here in the U.S. as potentially a risk in relative terms.

41:16Tim Seymour:Is there an emerging market specialist in the house?

41:18Melissa Lee:There has to be. Oh. Oh. Oh, hi. Oh, there is one. Oh. Well, it took a long time to get here, right? The relative underperformance of emerging as an asset class was over a decade. You can make an argument, it kind of peaked really when the pigs started coming out. That was the Southern European countries. But it started to create a concern around emerging markets and some of the trickle-through. But more importantly to the present, countries that are very exposed to the commodity super cycle, remember EPU, Peru, ECH, Chile, these are interesting places. I think EWZ in Brazil is going to continue to outperform.

41:54Remember, also, Taiwan Semi and Samsung are pulling up emerging markets. The size of these companies are making a greater weighting. There is a math equation here that's helping. And remember, Taiwan and South Korea, even though they could be and should be, are not developed markets. And it's partly its accessibility and it's less about governance. Really, we can't buy Samsung here. So it's part of the reason why it remains emerging. It's part of the reason why emerging is really outperforming. Think about the biggest memory companies in the world. So EM has outperformed, developed by 10%, U.S., by 10 % over the last two months.

42:28Tim Seymour:I mean, SK Hynix and Samsung are more than 50 % of the KOSPI. So that's a waiting.

42:32Melissa Lee:Real quick, EWZ, lower left, upper right, there have been pullbacks, but banks, resources, and energy, you get it there. I still like EWZ.

42:39Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, a growing circle. The hundreds of millions being raised by the stablecoin issuer and what Katie is seeing in the Bitcoin miner technicals. More Fast Money in two.

42:57Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Circle shares surging 16 % today after beating EPS estimates for the quarter. The company also announcing it raised over$200 million in the pre-sale of ARK, the native token of its new blockchain. The CEO of Circle joined Squawk Box this morning to discuss the quarter. Here's what he had to say. We saw about$30 trillion of on-chain transactions in Q1. That's up, you know, multiple hundreds of percent year on year. And USDC now represents about 80 percent of all dollar digital currency transactions in Q1. Other crypto related stocks, Coinbase, Robinhood, Strategy, all moving higher today.

43:36Tim Seymour:And that's something that you were flagging earlier today. I think it is meaningful and Circle's chart looks great. It has this kind of basing phase shape to it. But even more broadly, Bitcoin has certainly found a footing. And that has carried over to sentiment in the space of the Bitcoin mining companies as a source of relative performance right now and actually more steady countertrend moves, which are the stuff potentially of longer term lows. So we highlighted today in a CNBC Pro article, Strategy. And Strategy had reacted positively to a couple of countertrend signals. Now it's got better upside momentum, better relative performance, about 13%, 14 % to the next resistance.

44:17Exceptionally high beta, so high risk in a way. But we believe that the turnaround is the start of something potentially meaningful. All right.

44:24Melissa Lee:I have a friend of mine who's a good crypto trader, young guy. He says, why don't you tell your buddies to take some of that semiconductor P &L and start buying crypto? Is this BK? No. He's not a young guy. He's not a young guy. He's a dox BK. I said young, by the way. But I just think that's interesting that the crypto guys want this equity market guys to use the profits in NVIDIA to start buying crypto. Bearish or bullish reversals, Katie's right. Average price target is$1.35, I think. So analysts might be behind the curve here. Big valuation, but big EPS growth as well.

44:54Tim Seymour:Should Coinbase and Robinhood be up, though? I mean, crypto trading was it should be. Yeah, absolutely. And I think, again, this is kind of the trade. You move from the center out to the plays that are more derivative plays. But Coinbase, I think, has underperformed here. I'm long Coinbase and I'm long hood. Yeah, I would agree. It's just all within the ecosystem. and certainly there's outperformers and underperformers. But if you think about a strategy, it's really a leveraged play on Bitcoin. So you know what you're getting with that. For Coinbase and others, these are turnarounds. And I do think that their short-term breakouts, mostly above our cloud-based resistance levels, are pretty promising to suggest that at least Q2 overall will be a decent quarter for them.

45:37Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.

45:53Tim Seymour:Final trade, Tim. At this EM discussion, Kate Webb, going higher. Katie. I'm going with EWA, which is an Australia exposure v. that I shared. Dan.

46:04Melissa Lee:I'm going with Tim FXI. Guy. My dear friend, Mrs. Andolino, is in the hospital. She's not feeling well, but she asked the nursing staff to get CNBC's Fast Money on. So feel better, Mrs. A. Feel better, Mrs. A.

46:16Tim Seymour:Get well, Sarah.

46:17Melissa Lee:Seriously. On that note, EWZ, Mel, I think that goes higher.

46:22Tim Seymour:All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money at Jung Pamer starts right now.

46:39Tim Seymour:or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.

47:02Melissa Lee:I wrote a little song to remind you, Choice Hotels gets you more of the experiences you value. The Cambria Hotel's got We'll be right back.