Countdown to Walmart Earnings and What’s Next in the Musk/OpenAI Battle? 5/18/26

18:10Tim Seymour:Pressure on him for assuming that he knows. I don't know. Pressure is a privilege. What are you going to say? The OIH, look at the single-day move in the OIH day, and the fact that it didn't give it up during the day, and it made a new not only 52-week high, multi-year high. One thing we've been saying for a while, the fact that the OIH does not sell off with crude when it did sell off suggests that the crude move, in my opinion, is far from over. You know what, Guy? I agree with you. You do agree with you. I agree with you. I knew you would. I agree with you. And I also just think, why aren't you buying energy as a hedge for your portfolio?

18:39Exactly.

18:39Tim Seymour:Yep. Bitcoin touching 76 ,000 at its lows today. The crypto down almost 6 % in the past week. But does the recent weakness create an opportunity to buy? So, Katie, what do you see in the charts? You know, I'm interested because with the recent stabilization that we've seen in the price of Bitcoin, the longer term indicators have improved to a pretty strong degree. We have on the monthly chart an upturn in our primary overbought oversold metric. It's an oversold upturn, the first of its kind since the last major low. So it gives us that hint that the February low for Bitcoin was indeed an important one.

19:13We can see that with some hindsight here too. Right now, the pullback is from resistance at the 200-day moving average, another natural place for pullback to unfold. But because of that oversold upturn on a long-term basis and because it occurred above some key long-term support, including from a big Fibonacci retracement level and former resistance on the chart. That to us was pretty compelling where it ended up ultimately finding its footing. And once we have the short-term gauges pick up, that's where we want to revisit it. I look at Bitcoin and it's, you know, the correlation to tech, specifically AI semiconductors, I think it's pretty big.

19:48So I think you have to think that AI is going to sort of, not that it hasn't, it's going to continue to move to the upside because this bond, I think it all hinges on the bond market. Higher yields is negative for Bitcoin, in my opinion.

20:01Tim Seymour:Coming up, a quick decision from the jury in Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI. So what is next after the three weeks of courtroom drama right after this? Plus the blockbuster energy deal that might as well be an AI merger inside the utility tie-up that would create the world's biggest data center power producer. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

20:23This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.

20:32Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's venture global. That's unstoppable energy.

21:19Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money, a jury taking less than two hours to decide against Elon Musk in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI Today. Lawyers for the Tesla CEO saying they plan to appeal. CNBC's Kate Rooney is outside the courthouse with the very latest. Kate. Hey, Melissa. So we did get that decision quickly, the judge and jury today, rejecting Elon Musk's claims against OpenAI and its CEO. Sam Altman, it does cap off a dramatic chapter in this tech rivalry. Musk just now chiming in on X, calling the loss a, quote, calendar technicality. He says he's going to appeal and, quote, creating a precedent to loot charities is incredibly destructive to charitable giving in America.

22:00The jury today did decide that Musk didn't file that lawsuit on time. So that actually streamlined the decision. It came down to that statute of limitations. It was an advisory jury as well, meaning the judge actually had the final say. But she ruled just minutes after we did get that initial decision today earlier. It was a lot faster than we did expect. And OpenAI and Altman, she said, are not liable. She dismissed the two claims here, breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment. She called those untimely. The judge showed some skepticism, too, about an appeal. She said there is substantial evidence to support the jury's finding all this.

22:38I did speak to lawyers on both sides after that decision. He's a formidable adversary, of course, and he hires terrific lawyers, of course, and he is tenacious in his opinions, of course, and his positions. But we find that the persistent application of legal principles and the remorseless search for evidence is what wins cases, even against Elon Musk. I have a one word reaction. Appeal. It is a sigh of relief for OpenAI as that AI giant now looks to go public. Mel.

23:13Tim Seymour:You know, Kate, what came across in this trial is that both figures are kind of unlikable. And I'm just wondering how you think that translates as both the companies are preparing to go public and are seeking a retail base of some sort. It's a great point, Mel. I mean, even when as soon as the jury got in the room, that was clear that whether it was Elon Musk, whether it was Sam Altman, we heard so much witness testimony. First of all, how much money both of these characters have made in the process of building OpenAI. And we talk about Greg Brockman, too. The billions of dollars that these CEOs have made in the process of building these companies was just unrelatable to a lot of average people in the jury.

23:54Both of these companies are looking to get a massive retail base as they are going public. It's not clear. I mean, SpaceX, it seems like there's the Elon Musk effect. It's more of a space company than AI. But with the unpopularity that's really apparent after this case, it seems like OpenAI might have a harder time convincing a large retail shareholder base that ChatGPT and AI in general are something that they want to buy into based on what we've seen in this case, based on what we've seen with some of the graduation speeches getting booed recently. I think it's becoming more and more apparent that this is not an inherently popular technology.

24:26And that is one takeaway from this case that it has just brought to light some of the bad sides, I guess, the unflattering sides of this entire technology. And some of the leaders here, regardless of the merits of the legal case, you know, there was a lot about Sam Altman that spilled out in this that it was just unflattering.

24:45Tim Seymour:All right. Kate, thank you. Kate Rooney, who's been covering this trial every step of the way. And it's not like there's nowhere else to invest if you want to be, you know, if you want a piece of the AI trade in terms of an IPO.

24:57Melissa Lee:I mean, Google makes new all-time highs every day and they have like this vertical integration from the models to the TPUs to a whole host of distribution. And like, you know, one of the things that I guess is an interesting takeaway here is that if OpenAI, you know, having some sort of judgment against them in this situation, might it have made their IPO roadshow if it comes this year, you know, that much more, I don't know, that much more skepticism about the company and the way it's operated. But, you know, what I think is more interesting is about XAI. And XAI is obviously was bought by SpaceX.

25:28Melissa Lee:SpaceX is going public next month. There's a lot of questions about Grok, the model that they built. Elon went out and bought hundreds of thousands of GPUs from NVIDIA, and they just did a deal for their first giga factory, whatever the hell they call it, the Colossus one or something like that. They rented out the entire compute that comes out of that data center to Anthropic. So OpenAI and Anthropic are desperate for compute, but XAI is leasing or renting out all of their compute. They also did a deal with Cursor where they're using a bunch of their compute. So the question is whether they're seeing adoption for Grok and where does that put them competitively?

26:07Melissa Lee:And then what are, you know, what are Elon's real motives in doing this and trying to slow down maybe what OpenAI is doing? So I think there's a lot of things going on there. But at the end of the day, none of it sounds interesting for Grok if that is really what this comes back to. I was just thinking that they're both such likable guys. I mean, it would be so difficult. If I were Jordan, it's the side between the two. To choose. That's me. I tell you what, I'm reluctant to say this, but I don't think there's a question at all about SpaceX. I mean, the fact of the matter is when you're buying SpaceX, you're buying exposure to three different businesses that are part of the leading edge of where people want to be.

26:47And as much as maybe, as we've just discussed, the likability of these two guys, I mean, Elon, his retail base is insanely powerful and remains so. So I share the sentiment. I'm not putting words in anybody's mouths, but SpaceX over OpenAI all day.

27:04Tim Seymour:And by the way, if SpaceX gets waved right into the NASDAQ 100 to the S &P 500, then you out there will own a piece of it, whether you like it or not. Well, it's going to be a fast track from what the short answer is, yeah, it will. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. The$67 billion energy deal that could transform the AI trade. NextEra and Dominion Energy announcing a utility tie-up that would create the world's biggest data center power supplier. The details next. Plus, a major blow to Regeneron as its latest cancer drug fails a key clinical milestone. We'll debate what's next for the biotech name as it goes back to the drawing board.

27:47You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ MarketSite in Times Square. We're back right after this.

28:17others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's venture global. That's unstoppable energy.

28:28A key moment for the economy. How might the May jobs data influence the first Warsh Fed decision? Employment numbers and analysis. Squawk Box, tomorrow, 830 a.m. Eastern and streaming on CNBC+. us.

28:45Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Next, Sarah inking a$67 billion all-stock deal to buy Dominion Energy, creating the world's largest regulated electrical utility and a company that could radically change the AI data center power landscape in the U.S. Dominion currently powers the world's largest data center market in Northern Virginia. The combined company would have 110 gigawatt generation capacity with a 130 gigawatt pipeline. Next, Sarah currently plans to build more than 30 data center hubs to meet AI demand. What a deal. I mean, it speaks to the demand and all the things we talked about before.

29:23It shows no sign of waning whatsoever. And maybe it makes sense that Bloom Energy was down today. I'm not exactly sure why, but this entire space continues to be in play. I don't think it's a stop anytime soon. You know, when I look at Nextera and others, the long-term uptrends are very well established at this point. We had a big triangle formation completed by NextEra last year and now came up against some resistance. But I would see this as an opportunity to add exposure. It's so rare that we get these sharp pullbacks. The support's pretty good in the mid 80s for the stock, former resistance there.

29:59This deal shows that you need size and you need scale. And this is where we are. And I think this is I mean, I'm on Constellation Energy. I think the utility space is ripe for consolidation. I think there's a lot more deals on the table. I think you need to have the ability to ramp up quickly and you need diversification in some of your physical asset base. So I think you stay long.

30:24Tim Seymour:All right. We do have a quick programming note. The CEOs of both NextEra and Dominion will sit down with Squawk Box tomorrow morning to talk through this deal. Do not miss that tomorrow at 7 o 'clock a.m. Eastern Time, only on CNBC. Coming up, biotech pain trade. Regeneron seeing its worst day in almost a year after disappointing trial results. Phase three trial results for its skin cancer treatment. We'll hear from the analyst who just slashed his price target by almost 20 percent. Fast Money's back in two.

30:54Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:08Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks mixed to start the week, but all closing well off their lows of the day. The Dow adding 159 points, but the S &P and Nasdaq both posting back-to-back losses for the first time this month as drops in chip names like Micron weigh on the tech trade. Meantime, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals having its worst day in almost a year. Shares are down almost 10 % after the biotech company missed late-stage trial goals for its skin cancer treatment. And Libteo, BMO Capital Markets, cut its price target on the stock from$900 to$730. The firm's head of health care research, Evan David-Segerman, joins us now for more.

31:42Tim Seymour:Evan, great to have you with us. So it's not just that there is a failure here in this phase three trial, but this is a back-to-back failure in terms of key potential drugs in the pipeline. What does Regeneron have to do at this point? Well, that's a great question. So let's talk about what has happened. And so a year ago, they had a closely watched trial for this drug called ipoticumab for COPD, a common condition. That didn't work. That was a surprise. I mean, actually, last year, he wrote that they needed to get the ship right on the right track. And then this trial was supposed to be simiplumab plus fianlimab, so libtile plus an investigational asset versus Keytruda in melanoma.

32:21And while you did see a benefit, the stats weren't there. And that's why the stock dropped today.

32:27Tim Seymour:Is there a possibility? Because as I understand it, Evan, you actually removed the forecast of all of the sales of this particular drug out of the model. But is there a chance? It does have another ongoing trial, which pits it against a Bristol-Myers immunotherapy in this indication. So there's a chance, but we did that because we wanted to prove a point in showing that they need to be able to develop these drugs. And I'm sick of the missteps that we're seeing. I'm a little frustrated with them, as you can tell. So we took it out. there is a chance they may have data from this trial that could show overall survival.

33:00And the Abdulagg trial you were referring to could be used for a potential package. But just given this failure and the fact that they don't really know what caused the failure, I'm very skeptical that this will be a core part of their portfolio.

33:14Tim Seymour:Do they actually not know what caused the failure or are they just not disclosing it to the investor community? TBD. The stats were done last week, so we need to see the data presented at a medical conference. It could be the patient stratification. It could be overperformance of a particular arm. They did highlight that early on in the trial, the separation between the combo investigational arm and Contrudo were not separating as quickly. You got that separation later on, but that's kind of wonky, and they should have adjusted for that in the statistics. You know, this has been a year or a year of deals in this space.

33:51Tim Seymour:Evan, Regeneron has not been among the company. I mean, is that what they have to do at this point? I mean, they have$18 billion in cash,$2 billion in debt, so they have a lot of flexibility. And I think they're going to buy back shares. They have about$3.7 billion in authorization. Frankly, at this point, they need to do some bigger transactions because we are getting worried about the ILEA HD franchise. We put out another note today highlighting some potential IP issues. do Pixit will go off patent at some point. They need to do something and they need to do something large and soon. Evan, David, so I guess the question, though, is, again, independent of this news, there are analysts on the street out there that are very bullish on the stock because they see a growth rate of 12 to 15 percent top line either way.

34:34And therefore, it's somewhat compelling. Would you agree with that? So I, you know, I've gone back and forth on the stock. You know, when And we have hype and kind of reason to believe. I'm more positive and I can see the fundamentals supporting that. But with multiple phase three failures, I take pause because there's something going on there that is just not quite right. And that is the lifeblood of biotech. You have to keep developing drugs and be successful. One failure, okay. But two that are so hyped and closely watched, that's where my concern is. Evan, is there something to do with Sanofi with Regeneron?

35:11In terms of, well, they're partnered with Dupixin. They need to figure out how they're going to continue that partnership. Sanofi did have a failure with their investigational atopic derm drugs, so they could come to the table. In terms of maybe streamlining the Dupixin partnership could be good. There's a duplicative sales force. So there are things that could be done. Sanofi is a new CEO. Maybe there's a better relationship between Regeneron and Sanofi going forward. That's also a possibility.

35:40Tim Seymour:All right. Evan, thank you. Thank you so much. We do appreciate it. Evan David Siegerman of BMO. An interesting stock story. What does the chart look like? You know, it's interesting. It could be one of those scenarios where bad news is good because with the gap down, we last saw a gap down of this nature with very, very heavy volume on May 30th in 2025. If you go back to that, it ended up being a pretty substantial low. It took a few days for it to find its footing. And in three days from now, the stock should see a countertrend signal from the DeMarc indicator. So for those that own it, they might want to just see how that plays out, see if we can get some support discovery at a Fibonacci level around 608.

36:19Tim Seymour:But if you marry what you're seeing with the charts and what Evan David Zigerman is saying, it sounds like a value trap as opposed to a value stock. I mean, the stock's had a decent bounce now since the lows, I think, of about, what, 490 or so in May of last year. So maybe this sell-off was just people looking for an excuse. It feels like there might be more room to the downside, in my opinion. Is it Evan David with a hyphen? No, there's no hyphen. I love the fact that he's going with the Evan David. Is that the middle name? Timothy J. Well, yeah, but I don't think I can pull it off. Don't they usually say that for like assassins?

36:52Melissa Lee:Well, David Lee Roth. David Lee Roth was a killer. DLR. One of the great front men of all time. Different kind of killer. Yeah, really.

37:01Tim Seymour:Do you have anything to say about Regeneron? I like Regeneron. And again, I think this is ultimately a, you know, in the space. I mean, they are still kind of a growth story. And it's fair. There should be some criticism out there for these types of failures. But otherwise, I still think that long and strong. All right. Coming up, Netflix's worst weeks ever. The new Nielsen numbers that may be flashing a warning sign for the streaming giant. More Fast Money in Two.

37:32Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix shares rebounding today after five straight weeks of losses, but the media giant has still lost nearly 17 % since earnings just last month. There may be new cause for concern. According to new Nielsen data, the company had no original series in its top 10 for the week of April 13th to 19th. It's worth showing ever. The best-performing series on the service was Grey's Anatomy, and there were old episodes which originally ran on ABC. I mean, I know you're a big fan, Dan, but you flagged this story.

38:03Melissa Lee:I flagged it because remember Max Myers? Yeah, of course. Our fine, fine producer of years and years. He flagged this. And I know he's a big Grey's Anatomy fan, but when you see this sort of data, it is really interesting because you make some wonder, like, why do they want Warner so badly? You know, is that, you know, is the whatever you want to call it, the catalog or whatever running thin? And then if the company is obviously losing, not obviously, losing subscribers and the margins are under pressure, how much new original content they're bidding for sports stuff and everything like that. So to me, that is not a good sign.

38:33Tim Seymour:What struck me, too, is that, you know, Tom Rogers always mentions that on Disney, the most streamed show is actually Bluey, which is also not a Disney original. So it's not just Netflix sort of seeing this. It's also other streaming platforms. Yeah. And look, this kind of gets back to the future for Netflix. I mean, this is where they were. I'm sure there's a bottom line and a margin dynamic that makes a ton of sense. But no, we want to see what they're doing on original content. I mean, you know, Guy, the Squid Games for you has changed your life. Changed life. It was life changed. You know, I think Netflix is interesting here.

39:06And obviously, given the tape, I know it's probably a difficult chart and it's got to find some, it's got to find its way. But I feel comfortable owning it. Is it a difficult chart? It is. Putting words in your mouth again, I'm sorry. The slope of the 200-day movie on average kind of tells it all for Netflix. But to me, you know, it's closer than it was last time we talked about it. The support's around 75. Momentum is still growing to the downside on a long-term basis. So I think it's going to take time. Patrick Dempsey, by the way, huge fan of the show. Shout out. What do they call them, like McFry or McDreamy?

39:39McDreamy.

39:39Tim Seymour:McDreamy. Wait, was it McDreamy or was it the other one? Dr. McDreamy. No, I think that's right. McDreamy was the other one. Oh, I don't know. Who's Steamy? McDreamy. It's the other guy. You have a little. Anyway. Here's a fun fact at Grey's Anatomy.

39:51Melissa Lee:Every title of the shows is a rock lyric. Is that right? Go check them out. A rock lyric or the name of a song.

39:58Tim Seymour:That's news you can use right there. News you can use. Goldman Sachs had a positive note on both Spotify and Netflix. I actually think you can own Netflix here. A long time ago, you said Netflix and Spotify.

40:10Melissa Lee:Merge those two things together. Well, listen, if you think about it, going horizontal would make a lot of sense. And, you know, Netflix wants to get into some of the businesses that Spotify is, you know, So, and they want to do original programming. They want to do live programming. They want to do podcasts. Let's take some, you know, combine those things, take some costs out, raise those margins for Spotify.

40:28Tim Seymour:Coming up, Seagate sinking after its CEO issued a stark warning about AI-driven demand. The worrying words about the soaring digital memory space next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with Intel CEO Lipu Tan. Catch the full interview, top of the hour, on Mad Money. More Fast Money in two.

40:53Tim Seymour:Breaking news from Washington. President Trump making some comments about potential military action in Iran. Our Megan Cassell is at the White House with the details. Megan. Melissa, we heard earlier this afternoon that the president said he would be postponing a planned military attack from tomorrow against Iran because the two sides were getting closer to getting a deal. Now he says that that delay might only be for a short period of time, maybe only two to three days, he says, depending on how this negotiation goes. He was just speaking at a health care event inside the building, and he says that they've had very big discussions with Iran.

41:23He says we'll see what they amount to, but that he has informed Israel as well as other allies in the region about this path forward and about this decision to delay what he says were planned attacks. One key quote I do want to highlight is that the president says here, we've had periods of time where we had, we thought, pretty much getting close to making a deal and it didn't work out. This is a little bit different now, he says, Melissa. So only time will tell whether that continues to be bluster or whether we might be getting closer to some sort of an actual concession and negotiated deal. He says, though, that this is a little bit different from all the times we've been here before.

41:56Melissa.

41:56Tim Seymour:All right, Megan, thank you, Megan Casella. We do know that oil did respond on news on the post the first time around where President Trump said that he was going to delay action. It's going to be the same until it isn't. I'm just kidding. I'm with you. All right, Megan, thank you. So we did see oil come off of the highs of the session. That really helps some, you know, free up some of the other parts of the market, like a Walmart, which we talked about at the beginning of the show. But that's what I guess is going to be key here, how oil responds and rates. Look, the market has looked past oil and Julian framed it well.

42:29He gave us some dates. And at some point, oil, I mean, it obviously matters now. It's obviously feeding through. The market is totally correlated to oil and so are yields. We know what the trade is. You know what you're looking at in the morning. Yeah, 100%. I mean, this commentary to me is all predicated on the fact that 10-year yield's got to 4.6 % and oil has a triple-digit price tag associated with it. So we'll see. But I will tell you, this game of, you know, going back and forth, I think the oil market is going to sniff it out. And I still think oil will go siren the back of this.

42:59Tim Seymour:All right, let's get to C-8 shares. Sliding nearly 7 % today after the CEO suggested the memory chip maker may not be able to meet demand. Speaking at a J.P. Morgan conference, Dave Mosley saying, building new factories would take too long and could result in excess capacity. The comments dragging down other memory stocks, SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital, all lower as well. And this really calls into question this notion that has ignited the sector, that it's different this time around, that business will be smoother, it won't be as cyclical because there is a subscription, basically, for memory, contracted memory.

43:30Melissa Lee:I mean, I think there's risk to Intel, too. I mean, some of these companies are not great at manufacturing. It's one of the reasons why Taiwan Semi has such a chokehold on all of this business. And I think it's worth noting that Taiwan Semi did not materially increase their CapEx to build out new capacity until about last year or so. So it just tells you that the leader, the market leader, the guys who do it so well and have so much market share are also being somewhat cautious. Because in cyclical businesses like this, if you overbuild capacity, you think you overshot up 400 or 500 percent. You'll lose at least 50 percent.

44:02Melissa Lee:You can do the math on that. I know that doesn't sound as good as 500 percent gains, but it's not great. So this is the sort of cycles that you expect. And I would listen to these CEOs. You know, it's a notable loss of short-term momentum that we've seen. There are MACD sell signals, so to speak. And there's also a lot of room to the 50-day moving averages. For Seagate in particular, it's about 26 % downside. And that just goes to show how far and fast they've come. So to me, it would be a healthy pullback. It might take some time based on the DeMarc indicators, but ultimately should be met with buyers given the long-term upside momentum behind them.

44:36All right. Up next, Final Trades.

44:54Tim Seymour:Final trade time, Timbo. Constellation Energy also. I think this is a great way to play what is Size Matters. Katie Stockton, a fair lead. I'm going with gold or GLD to play a short-term countertrend signal.

45:09Melissa Lee:Dan Nathan. Yeah, NASDAQ last week wins the SpaceX. Probably some more behind that. Indexing fees, trading fees, a lot of stuff going on there. Give credit where credit's due. Great weekend out of shape, Tim, for the Metsies. Enjoy that. Look out. Look out. Cleveland Cliffs. I think it's just Cliffs now.

45:26Tim Seymour:Thank you for watching Fast Money. Mad Money starts right now.

45:33Tim Seymour:solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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