In short
Fast Money (8/20/26) focuses on rising long-term Treasury yields and whether Treasury intervention can calm markets, with deficits and global term-premium pressures driving the long end higher. The panel argues the “relief” from a prior intervention faded because fundamentals (oil/inflation risk, likely higher-for-longer rates) and poor 30-year liquidity remain. They also discuss credit-downgrade risk as a market-reaction issue, not just agency ratings, and note U.S. debt and interest expense are rising.
Guests
- Phil Luck, Director of the Economics Program at CSIS; previously deputy chief economist at the U.S. State Department under Biden.
Key claims/examples
Treasury can suppress rates briefly but markets disagree; intervention is a recurring pattern; 30-year bonds reflect long-term growth; U.S. vulnerability includes national-security/economic-security fragility.
- Bill Simon, former CEO of Walmart U.S.; on Darden Restaurants board.
Key claims/examples
Walmart’s selloff is partly valuation (he cites prior re-rating to ~40x); three simultaneous transitions (leadership, digital+stores, culture/cost focus); store same-store sales were negative while e-commerce contributed ~510 bps of growth; tariff rebates should be passed through.
- David Seamus, CEO of Hyperliquid Strategies.
Key claims/examples
Hyperliquid aims to enter the U.S. within ~a year; CFTC engagement is active; 24/7 perpetual futures can attract real volume (example: oil trading during a Middle East conflict when traditional exchanges were closed).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Response to Treasury Yields
0:00 to 0:22
Discussion on Treasury yields and their impact on the stock market.
“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”
Market Response to Treasury Yields
1:40 to 3:53
Discussion on Treasury yields and their impact on the stock market.
“Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ.”
Insights on Economic Fundamentals
3:53 to 6:05
Analyzing the relationship between economic fundamentals and stock market reactions.
“They're going to eventually have to raise interest rates.”
Potential Credit Downgrade Discussion
6:05 to 14:00
Exploring the risks of a U.S. credit rating downgrade amid fiscal pressures.
“I mean, the Treasury Secretary also said a lot of other things that would appear to want to allay some concerns.”
Debt Dynamics and Economic Vulnerability
14:00 to 17:00
Explores the implications of growing U.S. debt and interest rates on the economy.
“And usually, you know, deficits grow when there's trouble, right?”
Oil Prices and Economic Impact
17:00 to 19:10
Discusses the rising oil prices and their effects on the economy and public perception.
“At a time where real estate housing is dead.”
Deere's Strong Earnings and Market Insights
19:10 to 22:20
Analyzes Deere's recent earnings report, its strategies, and market conditions.
“I mean, they're already going 100 percent.”
Market Reactions and Competitor Analysis
22:20 to 25:40
Examines the market's reaction to Deere's performance and implications for competitors.
“Deere's order book for earth-moving equipment is now full for 2026.”
Market Reactions and Competitor Analysis
25:43 to 26:09
Examines the market's reaction to Deere's performance and implications for competitors.
“Jealous Choose Power Home Remodeling And remodel how you think about remodeling Schedule your free quote on windows, siding, roofing, and doors at powerhomeremodeling.com.”
Fast Movers in the Market
27:09 to 28:00
Reviews major stock movements and trends affecting investors today.
“SpaceX shedding 4 % as its second lockup period expires, its third straight session in the red.”
Show all 19 chapters
Walmart's Performance and Market Reactions
28:00 to 29:14
Discussion on Walmart's stock performance, earnings guidance, and comparisons with competitors.
“when you just know that the FDA has been really, let's say, hesitant with some of this technology.”
Analyzing Retail Sector Trends
29:14 to 31:08
Analysis of retail sector trends focusing on Walmart and its competitors, especially Amazon and Target.
“business, joins us next to dig into the latest quarter and why he says today's sell-off is justified if Fast Money returns.”
Insights from Former Walmart CEO Bill Simon
31:08 to 36:58
Bill Simon shares insights on Walmart's current challenges, including execution and valuation issues.
“And we talk a lot about this lower K and how constrained they are.”
Comparing Major Retailers
36:58 to 37:30
Comparison of Amazon, Target, and Walmart through the lens of market performance and strategy.
“And just quickly, Julie Beal, Amazon, Target or Walmart?”
Hyperliquid's Path to U.S. Market
37:30 to 42:00
Discussion on Hyperliquid's potential entry into the U.S. market and its implications for the cryptocurrency space.
“Bitcoin touching its highest level since June 1st after President Trump yesterday called on Congress to pass the Clarity Act.”
Discussion on the Clarity Act
42:00 to 43:19
The hosts discuss the potential impact of the Clarity Act on capital markets.
“I don't know if you saw Brian Armstrong on CNBC earlier today, and he sort of revived the idea that the Clarity Act actually had a shot, which was sort of DOA, I don't know, two weeks ago.”
Micron CEO's Insights on Memory Market
43:20 to 44:16
Insights from Micron's CEO about the changing landscape of the memory market.
“Mike, we're under the microscope, but the CEO told CNBC Today about the red hot market for memory and how the company is scaling up to meet demand.”
Debate on Memory's Cyclicality
44:17 to 46:29
The hosts debate whether the memory market is still cyclical despite increased demand.
“Everything that you knew about the memory business before, Tim, is out the window because it's no longer cyclical.”
Final Trades and Recommendations
46:30 to 47:10
The hosts share their final trade recommendations following market discussions.
“I like the durability and diversification of Amphenol, APH.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Bill Simon:Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. Say you always wanted to have a backyard oasis. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can go out and live a little.
0:41Bill Simon:Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money? Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 20 million customers today at Empower.com. Not an Empower client paid or sponsored.
1:01Phil Luck:Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Easy go, easy come. Long-term yields back on the rise after yesterday's Treasury intervention, why the market's sense of relief didn't last long, and what it means for your money, and hitting a wall, Mart. Shares of the big box retailer sinking after its latest earnings report. What spooked investors and what it says about the state of the consumer. Plus, crude oil prices hit their highest levels this month. Deere digs up some big gains after earnings. And believe the hype, the CEO of Hyperliquid joins us to talk about the potential entry into the United States and how perpetual futures could change the trading landscape.
1:39Phil Luck:I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Tim Seymour, and Julie Beal. And we start off with a sharp rebound in Treasury yields that all but erased the impact of yesterday's intervention, 30-year topping 5.25 percent at the highs, the 10-year back above 4.7 percent. The move's coming even as Treasury Secretary Scott Besson this morning on CNBC tried to reassure investors about the recent rise in rates.
2:06Bill Simon:We believe that the yields don't reflect the underlying fundamentals. This Iran conflict, we will get on the other side of this. We don't know when. And we can talk about the economic measures we're going to be taking against Iran in a minute. We believe that the liquidity, especially in the 30-year point, is very poor.
2:29Phil Luck:His words did little to calm the stock markets either. Major averages down across the board with the Dow posting its lowest close of the month. So is the bond market telling us there's more pain to come here? He mentioned underlying fundamentals not being, I mean, I guess the underlying fundamentals is in the eye of the beholder at this point, because a lot of people can say the case is that the underlying fundamentals is why and is the reason why rates should go higher.
2:52Bill Simon:Yeah, if you're looking through the lens of the stock market and S &P earnings growth, I mean, the fundamentals seem pretty sound, right? If you think about it, and I know we're going to talk about Walmart, but when you see a stock like that, which is so reflective of so many different things going on in our economy here and, you know, down 9 % in a day trading at 10-month lows, you maybe take a little pause here. But when you think about that move back, by the way, easy down, easy go. What was that thing that you just said? You turn that thing up and down. That was pretty good.
3:18Phil Luck:I mean, I can't take credit.
3:19Bill Simon:Yeah, well, it was good. I mean, the fact that we bounce back so quickly, right, in the 30 year, you're basically saying, well, we don't have a lot of confidence in this intervention. I think we talked about it last night on the desk. You think about what they are shooting at, what they're shooting it with. It just is a rounding error, right? So if your economy is doing OK, which it is. We can all agree on that. But you have oil that's trading at 88. You have inflation prints that are likely to go higher when we get into September in front of that Fed meeting. And you just say to yourself, there's very little on the other side of what's going on, the other side of this Jackson Hole thing, that is suggesting that inflation is going to come in and it's going to give the Fed pause.
3:58Bill Simon:They're going to eventually have to raise interest rates. And that really is going against what the administration wants to do, what the Treasury Secretary is talking about. And you know what? I got to tell you, you talked about what the stock market did. The stock market basically took a leg lower after he was talking. I don't think he exudes confidence one way or another. And when he talks about I don't know when we're going to be on the other side of this Iranian war, I don't think anyone knows. And I think at this point, even if we get a taco and we're likely to get that, I don't think that is going to instill confidence as far as our allies are concerned.
4:29Bill Simon:But clearly, I think our adversaries feel like they have us where they want us from an economic standpoint. And I think that's the thing that keeps us maybe slows down growth here in the U.S., which is ultimately the thing that's going to hit the stock market because we're only down 2 percent from those recent all time highs. I found the whole thing a little bit bizarre, actually. I mean, it seemed to me like he was just being a good soldier. Right. To get that. We need to get rates lower. We need to do that in front of the midterms. We need to talk about how we're going to get past the Saran war.
4:56Bill Simon:All of those things. I think you tried to hit those points. But I don't I don't think that the market will do what the market wants to do regardless. So I didn't really I don't know that it solved anything. Right. It's gone back almost exactly to where it was almost precisely. And so I don't know. Next time he wants to come out and say something that will help a little bit, maybe there'll be a little bit less response. Right. For the first day anyway. Right. So I didn't it didn't make me sort of I do. I found myself just agreeing with Dan on our midday call, you know, which is I know it's a surprising thing.
5:33Bill Simon:But when you said, you know, Trump is not going to be comfortable with oil where it is here. Right. We know that he cares about that. He cares about going into the midterms. I actually covered. I mean, I actually shorted some out of the money XLE and OIH because I do think oil has moved up a lot in the very recent week. and that he's not going to be comfortable with that, he will say something that once again will get oiled down. I don't know what it is. And then maybe the market will, I don't know, soften up a little bit. I mean, find some firmer footing is what I meant.
6:07Phil Luck:I mean, the Treasury Secretary also said a lot of other things that would appear to want to allay some concerns. He said, you know, yes, we think we've hit peak deficit. We can grow our way out of this. Our economy is good here, Tim. time and but it didn't really address some of those underlying issues as the sort of secular issues like global rates around the world are rising for instance that inflation has been persisting even prior to the iran war that that's exactly right i mean first of all let's just point
6:36Bill Simon:out that rates are going up around the world this isn't just a u.s thing so we don't have to be defensive about the u.s look at japan look at europe look at what's going on around the world and you can see it's a world that is demanding more term premium so the long end is rising There are deficits that are definitely being held in question. And remember, Europe at one point was a sovereign debt crisis that really saw no end. And so you can make an argument this is a global phenomenon. So Scott Besson, I don't think he felt defensive. By the way, he was good for him for putting in a lot of time this morning.
7:09Bill Simon:And Sarah Eisen, it was a great interview. But the presumption that you need to get into the market because in August, markets are liquid in the long end and the 30 is not a very liquid issue is crazy to me. I mean, you know, the bottom line is the long end is moving and it's doing what it's doing. And it's doing it because we've got a deficit, you know, and like at 40 at 40 trillion outstanding in debt. There's a lot of reasons why people would be concerned about that deficit at a time when the fiscal dynamic in the U.S. looks OK. But I don't think that there's a sense in Washington that there's any, you know, austerity.
7:46Bill Simon:And I would say, you know, the CapEx story around high grade hyperscaler, I mean, Broadcom closing on another 60 to 70 billion dollar deal with a bunch of lenders that's similar to what was talked about with NVIDIA. I mean, it's all happening. Dollar is weakening. And I think it's a case of inflation. Oh, by the way, is also there.
8:06Phil Luck:Yeah. Julie, your take?
8:08Bill Simon:Yeah, absolutely. I think it's one of those cases where, you know, when equity markets, what we see is people buying back their own shares, it helps the stock. But what really drives the stock is the underlying fundamentals, right? And that's the same case here. You can buy back some of your own debt. The thing is, is that what people are really looking for is grown up behavior to get deficits under control. I don't think it's a coincidence that this pressure is happening right when we hit 40 trillion. I really think that there needs to be some recognition. If they really do care about rates, I think there needs to be some recognition that the spending on a lot of different programs has really gotten to a point that's unsustainable.
8:47Bill Simon:And I think if there were a more grown-up effort to that, that would actually be much more meaningful to rates than going out and just trying to buy back some of the debt. I think that's why the market doesn't take this seriously. Yeah.
8:59Phil Luck:Well, the recent rate rally had us wondering if maybe the U.S. could be at risk for a credit downgrade. For more, let's bring in Phil Luck, director of the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He was also deputy economist, deputy chief economist, I almost gave you a demotion, for the U.S. Department of State under President Biden. Philip, great to have you with us. Before we get into the credit downgrade, I mean, I'm wondering how you think this action, you know, makes market participants around the world think differently, if at all, about the United States and about our credit if the Treasury is intervening right now.
9:35Bill Simon:Yeah, I mean, to the point that earlier panelists discussed, you know, Treasury can clearly buy lower rates for a day or a day and a half, but clearly the fundamentals, the market disagrees with the secretary about what the fundamentals are. And I would happen to agree with the market here. I would also say that to your other point, this is clearly a pattern. This is not an isolated incident now. We've seen sort of a pattern, whether it be the yen purchases or this or earlier last year, there's a clearly interventionist treasury here. And part of the issue here is the way they think they need to be interventionists, right?
10:08Bill Simon:So I think this really could create pause for market participants.
10:12Phil Luck:How do you think this will make it more difficult, perhaps, for Kevin Warsh? I mean, Kevin Warsh had clearly said that he wanted to see, he wanted the Fed to step out of it and to let the market sort of, you know, have a pure message from the markets. And here we have an interventionist treasury who's buying on the long and issuing on the short end and really distorting the whole curve.
10:35Bill Simon:Yeah, exactly. And this is, you know, I mean, I think this is a bit of a bipartisan shift away and towards a more interventionist treasury. But this is, you know, exactly the type of activity that was criticized by Besant when Secretary Yellen took it on. I think this is really, it's a shift away. And I think this makes it obviously much more complicated for Warsh. You know, again, markets are really looking for clear signals here, in part because of what was just said, which is, if this keeps going, the math just kind of doesn't add up. We've doubled our debt over the last 10 years or so, that almost every single quarter over that period, we've been growing as an economy.
11:13Bill Simon:If you look at the immigration policy of this administration, that puts a brake on the long-term growth of the US economy as well. So look, 30-year bonds are a bet on the growth and prosperity of the US economy in the long term. We're doing a lot to sort of you know, have barnacles on the side of that growth. Hey, Phil, this is not a new occurrence, but it's something that, you know, keeps popping up a little bit. When you think of, you know, Treasury Secretary Besson, he's obviously a market participant, and now he has a lot of tools in his toolbox that maybe he didn't have when he was at a hedge fund.
11:42Bill Simon:But when you think about, like, Microsoft as a credit, an investment grade, it's got a higher credit rating than the United States of America. What sort of pressure does that put on the buying of treasuries and certainly, long-term credit, when you have the ability to invest in things like that, that for all intents and purposes are well-situated as far as the economy, as far as their footprint as it relates to AI and such. Yeah, absolutely. And the other point I would say is, look, if the US economy was just a company and had its balance sheet, I think its credit rate would be quite a bit worse, right?
12:17Bill Simon:So even in that sense, I would say, look, that's another aspect of this is not only does the Treasury sort of have this really huge demand. It's going to be publishing a lot of paper that the market's going to have to soak up. So are private markets, right? We're seeing this huge increase in sort of issuance from the private sector as well. So that really also is going to put pressure on the Treasury market. And that makes sense. Look, we should be getting capital to its most effective use. If the US government and the Federal Reserve really thinks and the Treasury thinks that's government debt, it's going to have to pay for it.
12:53Phil Luck:So I'll get back to the question that we started this interview with. I mean, do you think that the U.S. is now in jeopardy of a credit rating downgrade from one of the major three agencies because of the mounting fiscal pressures? You know, obviously, there's not much bipartisanship anywhere in the country at this point.
13:11Bill Simon:Yeah, I'm much more worried about sort of just the market reaction than any rating agency right now. I mean, I think for sure, look, the fundamentals of our fiscal discipline are not good. And so that certainly, I wouldn't begrudge that sort of assessment. But again, I think the broader issue here, and taking this from sort of a foreign policy and national security standpoint, look, we are the national security, economic security is a big discussion these days about supply chain resilience, all these things. And often what we're doing is we're going to pay for those things by borrowing a lot of money.
13:45Bill Simon:And what I want to point out here is that there's a lot of lack of resilience and fragility coming in from being that indebted and being in a position where you really could have a lot of issues if we see a downgrade, which, again, may very well be warranted.
13:58Phil Luck:Phil, great to speak with you. Thanks. Phil Luck, CSIS. And usually, you know, deficits grow when there's trouble, right? You're spending a lot of money to get out of a situation. And here we are, it's it's I don't know. There's not much reserve here at this point if we have to issue at these high rates, Tim. And I guess that is a good point by Phil. And that is there's a greater vulnerability here than just looking at how high yields will go.
14:26Bill Simon:Well, again, if you look at where we were pre-COVID debt to GDP, we were sub 100. We were probably in the in the mid 90s. Now we're in the in the upper 120s. It's a global phenomenon and there's a cost to reshoring. There's a cost to looking at a bunch of new sectors as strategic sectors and that we have to build out. And this is all coming at a time when also there was just a lot of infrastructure in this country to build out. What's troubling is that Bill pointed out the U.S. economy has been growing and the deficit's been growing. So that says it all. It's also, though, the absolute size of the interest expense coming at a time when interest rates on the long end have moved up 100 and 120 basis points, at least over the last kind of 15 months.
15:09Bill Simon:You can't tell me we're not in an upward trend in interest rates. And I think two weeks ago or really 10 days ago when we closed last week, that was the moment. Rates are now higher and they're now higher for the foreseeable. So I think there's going to be an impact on the dollar. City downgraded the dollar today. And I think that's an opportunity to be investing not only possibly internationally, but also in some of the sectors that are inverse correlated to a weaker dollar.
15:34Phil Luck:We raise the question because two of the downgrades that have happened to U.S. debt happened in the month of August. Right. Oddly. And it was like very light trading. It was like one was a Friday. I think we were in options action back then. And the U.S. gets downgraded. I mean, just sort of reminiscent of that time.
15:51Bill Simon:I just wonder if we're and I say we I mean, just the entire media, the entire financial, you know, kind of complex, like placing too much emphasis on what's going on right now. Because in many ways, it just seems like a mountain out of a molehill because it's actually all of this has been out there, right? It's all been out there. So why is this happening like right now, this moment? And so to me, if the 10-year goes to 5%, well, in 23, it was at 5%. And we had a stock market that was much, much lower. It was like 4 ,200. And we just kind of marched higher with the Fed funds that got as high as 5.5%.
16:26Bill Simon:You know what I mean? And I think the stock market bottomed in and around there. And so I'm just curious, like there might be more interesting things to talk about as it relates to the economy, as it relates to the stock market and such like that. Because and I'm not trying to be one of these people who is like, you know, Steve Eisenman comes on the show. He's like, who cares? You know what I mean? Like, we don't care about the debt. We don't care about that. It's never really mattered. And maybe that's the case. And it feels like things are getting a bit hyperbolic right now. That's totally fair.
16:51Phil Luck:Totally fair.
16:51Bill Simon:Well, is it as Timson's top show? I mean, everyone else is worse.
16:55Phil Luck:Not every other country, but many. Right. We're the least bad house in a bad neighborhood. Yeah. Right. At a time where real estate housing is dead. Tim, last word.
Read the full transcript
17:06Bill Simon:Yeah, I think this time, first of all, I'm not saying we're going to the moon in rates and everything's oversold. But you can't tell me CapEx to GDP, what's going on with high grade issuance competing with the Fed. As you just said, better credits are going to pull up the U.S. government if they're actually forced. NVIDIA CDS has gone up 50 percent since June.
17:26Phil Luck:Meanwhile, oil moving higher after President Trump claimed he would level tremendous economic consequences on countries that did business with Iran. The daily moves in oil have become so top of mind that terms long, long reserve for dedicated market watchers are now entering mainstream conversations. Yesterday, The New York Times sent out a push notification for an opinion piece titled The Crack Spread is Going to Make Your Life Unpleasant. So now America is familiar with the crack spread, Julia Beal. But the impact, of course, is, you know, diesel, super high prices in California, and that's going to impact everything that's being transported everywhere around.
18:05Phil Luck:You know, how do you feel tractors with diesel?
18:09Bill Simon:Yeah, absolutely. I think it's always amazing when people decide to get wise to financial terms. It always makes me very nervous when, you know, for example, my preschool teacher starts talking about spreads. That's not a good sign at all. But I do think it is kind of this reflection that while the U.S. economy is much, much, much less sensitive to changes in oil prices than it was in the 1970s. It's not right. It's not really the proper corollary. It's not insensitive entirely. And it is a very important psychological factor, especially as we're going into the midterm. So it makes sense to me that the president is very focused on it in terms of trying to drive prices down.
18:51Bill Simon:But he's also stuck in a war that he can't seem to get himself out of. And so there's a lot of tension there. But I do think that we will see it just makes it so hard for prices to come down when transport costs just continue to go up.
19:05Phil Luck:Yeah. And it's almost I mean, how do you make prices come down? You can't put a refinery out there. You can't make it operate more. I mean, they're already going 100 percent. Pippa Stevens is saying last week they're putting off maintenance in order to continue to refine product right now at these high prices, Tim.
19:22Bill Simon:Well, and we've also heard from Saudi Aramco and the biggest exons of the world in their earnings recently just how how understocked and where we are. And arguably they've never seen this before. So I think I think we've got a date for 110 on Brent. If you look at that chart, I don't see what holds us back, especially given where we are in terms of inventories. I just feel as if this is something that we're going to have to deal with. And also, again, we've talked about this in terms of the futures curve on oil recently, too. That curve now tells you that this is a much more sustainable up move in oil price.
19:59Bill Simon:That's why you're getting that breakout. And the integrators, to me, look a lot more interesting than the refiners and also the oil services. OIH is a buy.
20:08Phil Luck:All right, coming up, tractors gaining traction. The numbers out of Deere's latest quarter that sent the stock surging today. Plus, SpaceX slides the rocket maker back below its IPO price. What is rounding shares today? Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.
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21:58Phil Luck:Welcome back to Fast Money. And a tractor maker, Deere, surging 7 % for its best day in six months, the company topping earnings expectations with net income rising. For the first time in almost three years, one of the big drivers, the AI data center build-out, of course. Seema Modi joins us here with the details. Seema.
22:14Bill Simon:That was an interesting part of the earnings call, Melissa. Deere is starting to benefit from that infrastructure build-out. Executive sharing on the call that large-scale infrastructure projects and data center construction continue to support robust customer demand. Deere's order book for earth-moving equipment is now full for 2026. Now, the company upping the lower end of its yearly outlook with the agriculture market starting to show signs of a turnaround.
22:37Phil Luck:Remember, farmers have been challenged by bad weather and rising gas prices. That, in turn, has pressured Deere's outlook in recent quarters. But according to the chief financial officer, Brent Norwood, 2026 represents the bottom of the ag equipment cycle.
22:50Bill Simon:One factor aiding farmers. Wheat prices have skyrocketed due to the recent heat wave. That's boosting spending power. Deer equipment used to spray fertilizer now seeing a boost in 2027 orders. With deer's better-than-expected report, competitors see if industry is also moving higher by around 6 % on the day, Melissa.
23:08Phil Luck:Seema, I'm curious, did they mention higher rates, and does that impact a farmer's ability to borrow in order to buy this equipment? It absolutely will, and has in the past. Higher rates certainly have a correlation with how much farmers feel comfortable spending, given that they do rely on debt. Didn't come up as much on the call, but it has in previous quarters. All right. Seema, thanks. Seema Modi. Tim, I feel like, well, I know you own a deer. I don't know if you own deer.
23:32Bill Simon:Thank you. I appreciate you understanding that. I'm the only guy on my street that actually cuts his own grass, and I'm proud of that. But what I will say about deer is it's those were that was an interesting call. That was an interesting quarter. The numbers were solid. They weren't as great when you back out some tariff refunds. I actually I mean, they lowered the ag outlook for Europe and for South America. But, yes, if we they've also insinuated we're at the bottom of the cycle. If that's the case and it's a buy the deer, it's a sell the caterpillar. I'd be careful about that. That pair trade that seems so obvious at this point.
24:02Bill Simon:I think those are good numbers, but I think there's some choppiness ahead. I like the part precision technology, sea and spray that helps farmers, you know, be as efficient as possible. I think that's probably a higher margin business. But, Dan, they do have a financial service business, services to help finance. Would you look at that as circular funding? Maybe. I mean, like, you know, one thing I just, you know, we take it and we give away and back and forth. See, I did the thing where you reverse it a little bit. I mean, like, listen, it's great that they have this great push, you know, when agriculture was weak and now they have the AI thing.
24:39Bill Simon:But there's more reverberations, like if we do see a pullback. We've talked about a lot of these data centers and some of the headwinds that they have right now in local, you know, sort of states are putting moratoriums on them and, you know, a whole host of different things. And so, you know, if you're seeing this uptick because of that, you better be ready for it to pull back if things do pull back. And look at Cat. I mean, Tim just mentioned this. It's like maybe that looks obvious, but Cat's down 25 percent from those recent all-time highs. And it was trading like a hyperscaler. And it's really kind of, you know, it doesn't have much of a bid right now.
25:09Bill Simon:I mean, I know it's hanging out where it is right now. But if the deer was bad, this thing was going to go down also. All right.
25:14Phil Luck:Coming up from the SpaceX slide to a big reversal in yesterday's hottest stock. We're digging into all the fast movers on our traders' raters today. Plus, Walmart on rollback is earning stoke concern over the health of the consumer. Is a retail giant ringing up a warning for the economy? We'll debate that. You're watching Fast Money Live from the NASDAQ Market Site in Times Square. Back right after this.
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27:11Phil Luck:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks pulling back today. The Dow dropping 700 points. S &P falling nearly 1%. And the Nasdaq also down by a percent. SpaceX shedding 4 % as its second lockup period expires, its third straight session in the red. The stock back below its$135 IPO price. Alibaba clawing its way into the green after being down more than 5 % at lows. Profits fell by 75 % a year ago as the China tech giant pours money into its AI push. And Moderna taking a breather after yesterday's 177 % gain. The stock pulling back almost 24%, its biggest one-day drop on record. Still, it's more than quadrupled in value this year.
27:49Phil Luck:Julie Beal, what would you like to trade?
27:52Bill Simon:Probably. I think I'm still interested in Moderna. There is so much technology that underlies everything that's here. And I think everyone has felt, God, it's really hard to get involved here when you just know that the FDA has been really, let's say, hesitant with some of this technology. And I think what this is demonstrating is that the science is science. You really can't fight the science at the end of the day. And there really is a lot of opportunity going forward from here.
28:18Phil Luck:Tim, I want to ask you about BABA because we got Baidu just the other day and sort of the same lens is being put on these earnings. And that is you're spending more. And what are we getting out of it in terms of AI?
28:29Bill Simon:Well, the guide on Baidu is terrible. And so they really destroyed that stock. I think that the idea for Alibaba is that, yes, they have to spend. No, they're not going to be spending on the kind of scale relative to what we've seen with Meta and Amazon and U.S. peers. And yes, we know that Baba, I think this is to reward Baba for their, not only their AI ambitions, but that they're a player. I mean, Apple is now working with Baba in terms of their models. And I just think the story in Baba is one of valuation I can deal with. I have it around 14 and a half times, and I still think they have cash in the balance sheet.
29:06Bill Simon:So I like this story. I've liked it for a long time. And I think you can be a trader in this name, But I'm also a long-term investor here.
29:13Phil Luck:Coming up, Walmart woes, a former CEO of its U.S. business, joins us next to dig into the latest quarter and why he says today's sell-off is justified if Fast Money returns.
29:28Phil Luck:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Walmart plunging 9 percent, its worst day since May 2022. While the retail giant lifted its sales and earnings guidance for the year, it posted the slowest revenue growth in more than six years. CFO John David Rainey telling CNBC business is strong despite inflation eating into consumer appetites.
29:46Bill Simon:We continue to see some stress on the consumer. And if you just take the second quarter as an example and you go month by month, in June we saw gas prices tick up above$4 a gallon. And I think there's some psychological perhaps impact to that. And we certainly saw among our customers and members that they were more choiceful during that period of time.
30:08Phil Luck:So what do you do here, Karen? What do you think of the quarter, the stock reaction?
30:13Bill Simon:Not unwarranted, the stock reaction. I think the clear thing to me was it was way too expensive going in. Right. It wasn't a disastrous quarter. It wasn't great for sure. And it certainly wasn't great when you look at Target's quarter. Right. The comparison wasn't great there. But even down this much, I'm still stuck on the multiple here. It's still expensive. And I was making me, the thing that seemed most interesting to me was, wow, Amazon's business seems so much better at 20 times, 20 times, which is 20 times including AWS.
30:46Phil Luck:Right. So it has the AI kicker. Yes. On top of retail. Yes.
30:50Bill Simon:So I bought some Amazon. I already own a fair amount of Amazon, but I want to buy more Amazon. That was my takeaway. Yeah. As I said before, I mean, takeaways from that report that you want to extrapolate, I think that's probably more important. And maybe it's not just the report, it's the price action in the stock. And look at TJX, which you might put in a similar sort of value category. And we talk a lot about this lower K and how constrained they are. You'd think that you'd see maybe more demand. But TJX, which had a horrible day yesterday, followed through to the downside. And I think Walmart took a lot of names in retail down with it.
31:24Bill Simon:Can I just add one thing on TJX, though? TJX talked about a lot of self-inflicted wounds, which you don't hear others that you'd hope you don't hear TJX talk about self-inflicted wounds because they don't do them often. But they did here. So they owned up to it.
31:37Phil Luck:They owned up to it. Yeah. It's still expensive, though. You know, in 2024, 2025, we were extolling Walmart, Tim, for its execution, for its ability to get the higher income consumer to trade, you know, trading down to come into the stores and buy how it's an A.I. play because they're investing so heavily into AI. And we're happy to give it a premium valuation to itself as well as to the market. And here we are. So what changed in your view? It can't just be the valuation. Is it execution as well?
32:07Bill Simon:I don't know. I think the valuation could speak to a lot of it. Remember, Walmart has re-rated. I don't know where we think it should settle in if you think it's too expensive, but it shouldn't be settling in at 17 or 18 times. And what their investments have proven and they proved them in these numbers today is that the growth on the bottom line is higher than the growth on the top line. They are more profitable today than they've ever been. And they will continue to be. Those investments in, it's not just AI. I mean, it's technology. It's CapEx. It's fulfillment. And, you know, they talked about their stores and where in the new world order, actually, their infrastructure is something that's also part of their margin profile.
32:44Bill Simon:The advertising, the membership dynamics, these are a big deal. So I'm not here to say go Russian and buy this weakness. In fact, I'm probably not going to. But I think if anything, this is an exciting time to be putting that on your watch list, because I don't think there was anything on the execution side today. If anything, you're worried about the consumer. But, you know, you always are.
33:03Phil Luck:Let's bring in former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon. He's now on the Darden Restaurants board. Bill, great to see you. It's always great to get your take. So does Walmart have an execution problem? Does it have a business problem or does it have a valuation problem?
33:17Bill Simon:Well, I think the discussion about the re-rating that they went through over the last few years is probably where they're at at 40 times. I mean, that's a huge number. A good retailer 10 years ago would be at, I think, Walmart for a long time was 13 times. I think Doug, when he was in leadership there, did a really good job kind of creating and selling the story that Walmart deserved a higher valuation. You know, the move to NASDAQ, everything that went along with it, the investments that you guys talked about, put them in that position. And, you know, I think, you know, maybe an overreaction today.
33:52Bill Simon:If you if you think Walmart's worth 40 yesterday, they probably are today. If you don't, then they really aren't worth what what they're trading at right now. They have three really big transitions going on right now. Leadership transition. You know, John Furner just took over. either businesses in transition, you know, that one foot in digital and one foot in the physical footprint. And finally, you know, a cultural change. They made a move to a big brand new, you know, multi-billion dollar headquarters and a cultural change that, you know, focus on costs that that company always delivered. That's hard to do.
34:29Bill Simon:So those are three hard things at the same time.
34:32Phil Luck:It also sounds like you think they have a stores problem, that if you took out e-commerce, that their problems would actually become more apparent. So do they need to focus on that? I mean, there's been so much emphasis on the e-commerce side of the business, which does seem to be humming.
34:45Bill Simon:You can't really grow e-commerce enough to offset, you know, the size and scale of the CapEx and the operating income that's generated from the stores. And if you do the math on what they reported today, I think they were up 2.5%, 2.6 % same-store sales. And they said that 510 basis points of that was e-commerce. So, you know, just do a little math. And their store business was negative two and a half, same store sales. And so you saw deleveraging in the expenses. Their expenses were higher than they should have been. Their inventory was higher than they should have been. I think they've got a little bit of a problem at the stores.
35:24Bill Simon:The good news is if they do what they said and give back all that money they got in tariff rebates in price. Now, look, they didn't miss a beat in profit when they were collecting the tariffs. So they raised prices along the way, along with most other retailers. If they got that rebate, they need to pass it through. And I believe Walmart will. And I think they can solve that problem in a couple of quarters by investing in price. Bill, it's Karen. Thanks so much for being on. I always appreciate you being on this day. Can you compare Amazon, Target and Walmart right now? How would you think about the three of them?
36:00Bill Simon:Well, I sort of agree with your comments on Amazon, a great company, you know, for the price at 20 times. And you kind of look at Walmart at 40 times. I scratched my head on that one, too. Target, I think I kind of like right now. Really, if they have a couple more years like they had the last few years, they run the risk of becoming irrelevant. I don't think that's going to happen. I think they're focused on their core business right now. and they had their best quarter in quite a long while. And they're going through a transition as well. And I think they're hungrier and going to be more focused on their big box store business.
36:42Bill Simon:And so I look probably in the next 24 months for Target to make some moves and to continue to grow. I think they're up 55 percent share price, I think, so far this year or so, or at least in the last 12 months. So they're moving forward.
36:56Phil Luck:Bill, great to speak with you. Thanks.
36:58Bill Simon:You bet.
36:59Phil Luck:Bill Simon. And just quickly, Julie Beal, Amazon, Target or Walmart?
37:04Bill Simon:Oh, Amazon, for sure. I think they are able to really capture that customer. I think they've delivered on price value. And I think that probably of the hyperscalers, you know, they've done this before and their shareholder base is used to spending a lot on CapEx. So I think they're the best positioned.
37:20Phil Luck:Coming up, Hyperliquid heading stateside. President Trump hinting the crypto exchange could soon get a path into the U.S., what it would mean for markets and the growth of the perpetual futures market next. More Fast Money right after this.
37:39Phil Luck:Welcome back. Bitcoin touching its highest level since June 1st after President Trump yesterday called on Congress to pass the Clarity Act. He also pledged support to bring perpetual futures exchange hyperliquid to the U.S., sending both hyperliquid shares and its hype token higher. The CFTC telling CNBC in a statement, conversations are ongoing and the CFTC continues to work with market participants and exchanges to explore innovative proposals. Joining us now for more is Hyperliquid Strategies CEO David Seamus. David, great to see you again. Hey, Melissa. How are you? Good, thanks. President Trump specifically said, I understand that Mike Selig, the CFTC commissioner, chairman, is also working to bring Hyperliquid into the United States.
38:19Phil Luck:Have you been in discussions with Mr. Selig?
38:23Bill Simon:Yeah, I would say this. So it has been no secret that Hyperliquid is trying to figure out how to get into the United States. And right now it's available pretty much anywhere in the world other than the U.S., a couple other places. So it's been no secret. And the CFTC has been quite responsive and focused on it. There's no question about it. But I think yesterday when the president mentioned it in his press conference, that just, you know, told the world where this is as far as priorities for the administration goes. So, again, there was nothing we heard yesterday that was news other than the fact that he mentioned it and made it obviously much more of a priority than when then people might have thought it was.
39:06Phil Luck:Right. What's your what how do you think about the time frame? I mean, within the next year?
39:10Bill Simon:You know, it's always, you know, every economist can predict everything but timing. I think that's a tricky question, but I think within the next year, it seems very reasonable to me, but probably less.
39:21Phil Luck:How do you think about your competitors? How do you think about, and not just in perpetual futures specifically, but in all sorts of products like this? Because when we heard that comment, you look at CME shares, you look at CBO shares, and they went down immediately on the back of it. Is that how you think about your market?
39:40Bill Simon:I mean, yes, there's no doubt. I mean, there's overlap. You know, it wasn't long ago when CME and oil were synonymous. And the idea of trading oil in real volume anywhere else seemed hard to imagine in the United States. And that's clearly changing. And it's obvious it's changing. I think the market has picked that up. I think that, you know, as long as we're talking about CME, you know, six months ago, eight months ago, no one's ever heard of hyperliquid. In February, we had a war start in the Middle East, and it started late on a Friday New York time, where all the traditional oil exchanges were closed for 48 hours.
40:21Bill Simon:But oil traded on hyperliquid, and we saw real volume. And hyperliquid, where oil had only been trading for a few weeks leading up to that, all of a sudden had some seriously important geopolitical position. David, sorry about that. So we're talking about like regulated businesses that, you know, Hyperliquid is coming after CME, for instance. But they keep innovating also 24-7 futures. They have minis, that sort of thing. And how do you think about coming up against when I say you? I know your business model. You buy the hype token and you're a play on the adoption, that sort of thing. But how do you think about Hyperliquid coming up against very entrenched business models that have been around for a long time?
41:05Bill Simon:They appreciate regulation. And obviously, that's something that you guys are pretty interested in also. But the customer bases, it's, you know, like to get into institutional, that's a whole different thing. And Hyperliquid doesn't really have liquidity right now. Yeah, well, I would put it this way. First of all, when Hyperliquid was founded and started its business, it's not like it entered a business that didn't have any competitors. Right. Binance was massive when Hyperliquid started. There were plenty of other massive people. I think Hyperliquid provides a really good trading experience that the investors and the customers appreciate, and it does it at a very low fee level.
41:43Bill Simon:And, you know, like the old Warren Buffett thing, right? Provide the best service at the lowest price, and people are going to find you. And that's really what's happened here over the years. And there's no reason to think that it shouldn't happen in the U.S., bearing in mind that it's a more complicated regulatory puzzle to put together in the U.S., But that's what's going on right now. David, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. I don't know if you saw Brian Armstrong on CNBC earlier today, and he sort of revived the idea that the Clarity Act actually had a shot, which was sort of DOA, I don't know, two weeks ago.
42:18Bill Simon:What are your thoughts on that? So I certainly hope he's right. It doesn't feel great. On the other hand, you know, Clarity specifically doesn't matter all that much to us at hyperliquid. In other words, it's not like there's particular things in that bill that are going to move the needle for our business in a big way. But I do think it shows that there's a real step in the right direction for the US capital markets. And this is moving the way it's supposed to move. So I think it's super important for everyone involved. And your guess is as good as mine as to whether it's going to get done. I haven't checked the calciage recently, but it doesn't feel great, right?
42:58Bill Simon:Time is running out. And that's the problem.
43:02Phil Luck:There are the odds of 48 % before January, 2020.
43:05Bill Simon:Yeah, look, 48 % before Jan, 20, 28. It's not terrible, right? That's a 50-50 bet. That's not awful.
43:14Phil Luck:David, always great to speak with you. Thank you for your time.
43:17Bill Simon:Likewise. Thanks for having me.
43:19Phil Luck:David Chamus, coming up. Mike, we're under the microscope, but the CEO told CNBC Today about the red hot market for memory and how the company is scaling up to meet demand. More Fast Money in Two.
43:34Phil Luck:Welcome back to Fast Money. Our Jim Cramer sat down exclusively with Micron CEO Sanjay Marotra in Boise, Idaho this morning. Marotra saying that he thinks the boom and bust cycle for memory may be over. Memory is no longer a component in a system. Memory is the strategic infrastructure for AI. It's no longer a commodity. It is a high value. This is enabling value for our customers. Without memory, you cannot make AI smarter. You cannot make AI faster. You cannot scale up AI. You can catch more of him during Jim Cramer's exclusive interview at the top of the hour on Mad Money. So again, we hear this case.
44:18Phil Luck:Everything that you knew about the memory business before, Tim, is out the window because it's no longer cyclical. We've got long-term contracts and everybody needs this stuff. It's strategic.
44:29Bill Simon:Well, everybody needs the stuff and there's demand. And we've seen that. It's hard for me to argue that it's not still cyclical. Yes, it's needed and memory is more important as a component, but it's no different than, you know, an energy input and something that it needs it to run. And so I still think we don't know the boundaries. Yes, overall, memory demand is growing and different types and flexibility. But what we don't know is at the same rate, you know, kind of in a linear fashion to the existing, you know, GPU cycle. I just, you know, to me or CPUs. I mean, I think you've got a case here where you still can't tell where it's going and where memory demand is, even if we know it's going higher.
45:13Bill Simon:Good for Micron. They have invested in their business. That was part of Jim's interview today. They've done a great job. They're an American company. We need them. I'm just not sure I need to buy them here. I don't own it, but I mean, it sort of begs the question about the supply response. That's what makes something a commodity. Right. Right. Enough supply.
45:31Phil Luck:Yeah. And if they keep adding adding factories and depends on where the demand curve goes to the supply curve. Are we assuming the demand curve is actually you can project it with certainty? That's a part of it. Right. That's probably why I don't own it. Julie Beal, your thoughts?
45:48Bill Simon:Yeah, I mean, name a CapEx cycle that wasn't a cycle. There will be a point where we have a build and we just don't have to build quite the same level. We don't know when that is. But to argue that this is no longer cyclical because it's integral. Memory has always been an integral part of a computer. It's always been a part of it. It's a function of competitors, right? What distinguishes NVIDIA from others in memory is that, you know, for a while they really had a monopoly. And they had a monopoly so good that it caused their own customers to attack it. I just don't think you can argue it the same way.
46:21Bill Simon:Yeah, I think it's worth noting, though, like, for instance, Chen Chen Wang will tell you they're retooling some of their architecture to rely less on memory. So just keep that in the back of your mind.
46:29Phil Luck:Up next, Final Trades.
46:36Phil Luck:Back to the Final Trade, Julie Beal.
46:39Bill Simon:I like the durability and diversification of Amphenol, APH.
46:43Phil Luck:Tim.
46:44Bill Simon:This is not your father's Unilever. This is a high margin company, beauty, wellness, personal care, Unilever.
46:51Phil Luck:Carewoman. Tim, where are you? What is this? I'm not telling. I'm not telling. That's fine.
46:57Bill Simon:All right. Mine's Amazon. After our Walmart discussion. That's where I ended up. Amazon. Yeah, per that hyper liquid strategies we just talked to the CEO. It's a treasury company I do find interesting. I think you buy it on pullbacks.
47:09Phil Luck:Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.
47:32Bill Simon:Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.
48:10Phil Luck:at cdw.com slash surface.
From the publisher
Yields tick higher again, even after the U.S. Treasury’s historic bond market intervention. The traders make sense of the impact on stocks, and CSIS’ Phil Luck weighs in on whether another U.S. credit downgrade could be in the cards. Then, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon joins with his reaction to Walmart’s big same-store sales decline--and why he says Target stock looks more attractive now. Plus, bitcoin at more than two-month highs, Deere’s day in the sun and what Micron’s CEO had to say about the red-hot memory market.
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