Digging in on Apple Earnings & Markets Wrap up a Strong Money 4/30/26

20:29So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy. With Uber's new women preferences, women riders can request a woman driver whenever they want. Like Amy, who's traveling solo in a city she's never been to before. Or Danielle, who works night shifts at the hospital. or Kelly and Jana, who were way overdue for a night out. Because sometimes comfort comes from having another woman with you. Request women drivers with women preferences on Uber. Learn more on the Uber app. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Summit Therapeutics down double digits in extended trading after the company said it would not share interim results from its highly anticipated cancer drug trial.

21:20Those results were set to be released this quarter, But investors will now have to wait until the second half of 2026 when the trial wraps. Elsewhere in health care, shares of Amgen on the move after sales and earnings beat estimates. The biotech also slightly raising its full year sales outlook. Earlier in the day, Eli Lilly blew past street estimates for the first quarter and raised its full year sales outlook by$2 billion. Its demand for Zeph Bound and Monjaro continue to soar. The company's newly approved weight loss pill, Fondeo, did not factor into the results. But CEO David Ricks told CNBC this morning that more than 20 ,000 people are now taking the pill.

21:53For more on all of this, Mizzouho Securities' Jared Holtz joined us now. Jared, great to see you. I don't want to put you on the spot, but Summit, that's never good when they're just going to delay results. Yeah, I think investors are looking forward to the trial. This is the PD-1-VEGF combination in cancer, and we're just going to have to wait. So I feel like, yes, this is probably – it's a near-term setback, And I think investors come back to it later in the year as they kind of gear up for what still could be a positive trial, but certainly takes the air out of it for a bit. Right. If we can go to Lilly now, I mean, the move in today's session is just extraordinary for a company of its size to be up 10 percent.

22:28And I noticed in the note you pointed out that basically the weekly scripts numbers are not reflecting the actual uptake. So what is behind that discrepancy? Yeah, I think there's a bit of a reconciliation you have to do between the capture rate and what the actual scripts are. But to the company's point on 20 ,000, I think the last data set we had was essentially 10 days ago. So it's not in real time. And if you fast forward and you add, call it 4 ,000 to 5 ,000 patients per week, you get to that 20 ,000. So I think it was probably a little bit mismodeling on the part of the street. and it kind of makes sense, but they're still trailing Novo by a little bit at this point in time.

23:10But that was definitely a reprieve. I thought it was a little bit better than I would have thought. What also surprised me, and I don't, this is like a confession, I don't watch TV, so I don't really know about ads and things like that. I only watch CNBC. But they said that the full sort of promotional tour is going to happen in the third quarter when it comes to advertising. So we haven't really seen even the company push this hard. Right. There's been really very little DTC. I think there's some regulation around marketing and going direct to consumers via TV commercial, radio ads within a period of time where the brand has just been introduced.

23:49So Foundeo, a new brand, whereas Novo was with Wegovi, not an actual new brand name. So they've been able to push it, I think, a little bit more quickly. There are some spot. I think there was an ad in Times Square today, perhaps, that showed, you know, the deals that you could get on the new oral. But it's kind of like it's hit or miss. It's not a full fledged launch yet.

24:11Melissa Lee:Structure Therapeutics has given back the entire move from that move was historic. I think it's a G in whatever acronym Karen has this year. It's in there somewhere. Nobody knows. But I think there was a short report out. This doesn't seem, doesn't make a lot of sense to me because I still think this company gets acquired. Is this round trip an opportunity here? I think so. I mean, I think what the street is worried about or has a little bit angst over is the fact that the GLP-1 market seems to be taken. It's going to be super tough to get in there with Lilianovo absorbing all of this market share and having the power that they do.

24:45But the Amlin, which is the lower power weight loss therapeutic that's going to be an oral, I think has a lot of value. I don't really know of that many people that have to lose 20 percent of their weight. If this gives you 10 percent, you know, give or take, but doesn't have the adverse events of the GOPs, I think it's a very, very interesting drug. Of course, we're all obsessed with the percentage of weight loss, 18, 20, 22, the Triple G, Cagrosemma out of Novo. But a 10 percent weight loss drug, if it shows good safety, I think could be a blockbuster. So I agree. I think the stock is undervalued.

25:20So to that point a little bit. So Novo up five percent today, which was nice. I don't know if I mean, if you're thinking that they're too far ahead, Lily's way far ahead and then Novo. And this market is so extremely gigantic, though, that you would think Structure Therapeutics would have some interest. It's not that big, just in terms of absolute dollars. Or do you think the other two are just too far ahead and the game's over? Yeah, well, for the Amlins, if they come in with an oral Amlin, a 10 % weight loss drug that they can market as a consumer product, it has a huge potential. If they're going in there as a GLP-1 trying to get market share for Lilianovo, having to pay for manufacturing and all the spend that these companies had to do, I think the market is basically telling us that they don't really believe there's that much room for other players.

26:13Now, that's debatable because the addressable market is massive. We know that every other person could use it. But Lillian Nova are very far ahead. Their products are excellent. They were already in the diabetes space to begin with. So it's tougher, especially for a small cap company to come in. That's why I think if there is viability, it'll likely get acquired. I mean, I think it could get acquired for the Amlin alone. But again, that data has not been fully cooked yet. and we don't really know what it is going to look like. Doesn't Lilly have an amylin also? They do. Or lintide? They do. But other companies don't.

26:42And this could be a massive consumer product. I mean, 10 % weight loss for, I think, most people is good enough. That's like a vitamin. It's a vitamin. And so that's a whole other market. With all these other probable health benefits that go along with it, I think we're vastly underestimating it, again, because of the obsession with the percentage of weight loss and how skinny you can possibly get. But I just don't think that much of the population needs that. Right. Jared, thanks. Good to see you. Jared Holtz of Mizuho. What do you make of the action today?

27:10Melissa Lee:First of all, I still eat my Flintstone vitamins. Sure you do. Bam, bam. Yeah, it's funny you should say that. It's the best tasting one, number one. Number two, I'm with you. Listen, the entire sort of back and fill in GPCR doesn't make sense. Short report, I get it. But he's spot on in this. I mean, this is a$9,$10 billion deal. It's a lottery ticket for one of these big cap pharma names. I'm with Karen on GPCR. Yeah. And that is in your acronym. It is. And Novo is also. And Novo, right. So you're doubling down on this. I'm doubling down on it, right. So Novo's bouncing back somewhat, but it's really not been a good year so far at all for Novo.

27:47It started off hot. But I just think at this valuation, in this market, even if they're number two and somewhat distant, it's so gigantic and they're already there. This is where I want to be. Coming up, Caterpillar and MasterCard moving in different directions after their morning reports. What's behind the moves next? And a lot more after hours action to bring you the results. Moving Roku, Western Ditch, Sandisk, and more. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ Market Site in Times Square. Back right after this.

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29:10So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy. On any journey using Uber, it helps to know you're getting into the right car. Pin verification adds an extra step to make sure your ride is your ride. Before the trip begins, your app gives you a unique pin. Just tell it to your driver, and they'll enter it in their app before the ride can start. Hey, what's your pin? 2538. That way, you know you're in the right car taking the right trip, and your driver knows you're the right passenger. Make sure your ride is your ride with pin verification from Uber.

29:46One more way Uber is putting safety at every turn. Learn more on the Uber app. Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks, closing out April. With strong gains, the Dow jumping nearly 800 points, snapping a five-day losing streak. It saw its best month since November 2024. The S &P and Nasdaq both climbing about a percent today, closing at record highs. They both saw their best monthly performance since 2020. Two tech stocks also seen big gains in April. Google having its best month since October 2004, two months after going public. And Intel more than doubled in the month. Its best performance since its IPO 55 years ago.

30:20We need a 55-year chart, Guy, not a 40. Back to today's action. We can't drop that. Caterpillar jumping nearly 10 percent, hitting an all-time high. The stock responsible for nearly 500 points of the Dow's gain. The company topping earnings and revenue estimates this morning, also raising its annual revenue forecast thanks to its power and equipment, power equipment and construction units. MasterCard, meantime, heading in the other direction despite his own earnings beat. The credit card company also boosting its 2026 revenue growth outlook. The stock down nearly 12 percent this year. Do not miss Jim Cramer's exclusive interview with the CEO of MasterCard on Mad Money.

30:56That's at the top of the hour. And some more after hours action. Sandisk and Western Digital, both lower despite topping estimates, posting better than expected Q4 guidance of stocks, have both soared in the last month. Roku, though, jumping as the company raised its annual platform revenue forecast. Roblox sinking after missing revenue estimates and lowering guidance. And shares of Reddit higher after beating expectations on the top and the bottom line. Cloud company Viva Systems higher on news. It will be added to the S &P 500 next Thursday, replacing Cotera, which is being acquired by Devon Energy.

31:27A lot of stock moves to digest there, Karen, but which one would you like to trade? Oh, let's see. I'll go with MasterCard, whose only problem was reporting today instead of two days ago. I mean, it was up, I don't know, 20 bucks yesterday on the heels of Visa. It was a very good quarter. If you liked it before, it's fine now. Nothing's changed. It was a good quarter.

31:47Melissa Lee:Let's do Sandisk here. Sure. Same problem as me. It's up like a thousand percent in a year. It's got one hundred sixty five billion dollar market cap and they just approved a six billion dollar buyback. Now, OK, let's throw that six billion. Just sell it to the people they want it. Just do a secondary. OK, let's put a billion and a half in cash on their balance sheet. They have no debt or let's figure out a way to invest that six billion dollars to get more capacity to make the thing that they sell a lot of. I mean, I know that sounds very cynical and it's meant to be, but I just don't understand that.

32:21Melissa Lee:It doesn't mean just because they announced the buyback they got to do it, but it just seems goofy. Right. We do want to point out shares of Apple moving to after our session highs right now up by just about 3 percent. The conference call is about 34 minutes and we'll try and get you the headline behind that big move higher that we just saw in the past few minutes. Coming up, stocks are all taking a leg higher as crude holds above$100 a barrel. what Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees in store for markets, rates, and why he's not so bullish on oil. Fast Money is back in two. Missed a moment of Fast?

32:54Melissa Lee:Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

33:05There you see it. The pop in the after hours session on Apple stock up 4 % right now. Getting more from the conference call. Let's get to Mackenzie Sigalos with that. Mac. Hey, Mel. So we saw that stock pop, right? We heard that Q3 revenue, they're guiding to 14 % to 17 % year-over-year growth. The street estimate was for 9.5%. They're also expecting services revenue to grow at a year-over-year rate, similar to what they reported for the March quarter. So that is 16%. Finally, they're expecting gross margin to be in a range of 47.5 % to 48.5%. We also heard from John Ternus right off the top of the call.

33:41brief appearance where he praised Tim Cook's leadership and promised continuity, but also teased what he called the most exciting product and services roadmap of his 25 years at the company. Last thing I'll say, Tim Cook did bring up a revitalized, personalized Siri, but his wording was that he was looking forward to it coming this year. Appears to signal it might not necessarily be coming as soon as their developers conference in June. Mel? Mack, thanks. Mackenzie Cigalos. We should note, too, that from the conference call, the CFO was saying that the current quarter guidance factors in supply constraints.

34:14So, presumably, that guidance number, that gross margin number that we got in terms of guidance, that does reflect any sort of memory pricing issues. And that had been a major concern of analysts. Let's bring back Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. Gene, what do you make of the guidance? Well, I'll just add one thing to that. Well, first, the guidance, I think, shows we're in the midst of a super cycle. They're probably going to come in above the 17%. I mean, the shoe's at nine. I mean, this is phenomenal. Under any normal circumstance, the stock would be up a lot more than it is now.

34:42And the issue is that investors are looking already past, partially looking past all the goodness that's going on in the business and kind of thinking about what next year looks like. But I want to just one more fine point on this guidance. They also said they're MAC constrained. They will be MAC constrained for this quarter, the majority of this quarter. So that probably adds another 1%, 2%. So the guidance could have been even better. But again, that doesn't change with the bigger picture here, which is what is this growth rate of the company? And I would emphasize this. These super cycles are so much fun.

35:16Anticipation of them are a lot of fun and fun for investors. And the bigger the cycle, we're going to feel this benefit. It's a long ways down the road, but two, three years down the road, we're going to see the benefit of everything that's going on. So this is not for nothing, all the goodness. So I think that's my first reaction. One other piece, Mel, that I picked up on the call on the first question also started to dig into this a little bit, but they changed their language around capital return. They continue to reiterate how important it is to return capital to investors, but they just added a little nuance that analysts picked up on, which was they said that the business needs come ahead of that.

35:52I can't remember them ever talking about that first, which, of course, opens up the question, is Apple going to enter into some sort of a CapEx race? I think the answer is no, but that's going to be part of the conversation. Sure. Gene, thanks. Gene Munster, I mean, I think it's not just CapEx on there, but I mean, it's his new CEO. They can be making acquisitions. I mean, we don't know what... They haven't ever really made a big one, but I sort of think it always goes without saying that you need to address the business first before you do anything else with the capital. Coming up, where oil is heading next and why Mike Wilson sees bond volatility as a bigger risk than corporate earnings.

36:29Stay tuned.

36:35Welcome back to Fast Money. Brent crude hitting a four-year high before sharply reversing course during the day. The initial move coming on the back of an Axios report that President Trump was being briefed on potential military action in Iran. Trump yesterday posting on Truth Social that Iran, quote, better get smart soon about signing a nuclear deal. WTI and Brent crude both snapping three-day winning streaks today, but both are up about 60 percent since the war began. Turning to the broader markets, our guest trader here, Mike Wilson, sees bond volatility as a bigger risk than corporate earnings here.

37:06So, I mean, we've seen very strong earnings so far this season, particularly from the MAG-7. But bond volatility, it seems like the 10-year yield, though, at least, is kind of tame, given what's going on. I think there was a more interesting call a month ago because people were questioning the earnings story still because of the spike in oil. and all the stuff that's going on. But now that's sort of consensus view. I still probably am way above the street on earnings growth for the next 12 months. That's why we stay bullish. The risk is bond volatility. Now, I think the Treasury and Fed have got their hands around this.

37:35If you look in late March, we wrote about this at the time, as soon as the Fed funds pricing changed, bond volatility went up. And some of that was oil price spike. PEs went down right with it. And then the Treasury did record buybacks over three or four weeks. and Powell started talking a little bit more dovish at the end of March, and that calmed bond volatility. So I don't think it's a problem right now, but if that were to pick up again into the Walsh confirmation, the transition, and sort of the anxiety around that, that would be, that's worth 5%. It's not worth another 10 % or 15 % correction.

38:07But that's a bigger risk now to me than earnings because that's well known at this point. What about corporate bond volatility? I mean, that's more of a rates thing you're talking about. Rates. Right. Right. Not. But do you foresee? I mean, we've seen just tons of debt issued, tons of debt related to AI. That was a thing a while ago. Remember, you know, CDS blew out. Absolutely. And that also weighed on the market. Do you foresee anything like that happening? Yeah, we're pretty we're pretty mellow on the credit issue being a systemic problem. There are credit issues. There's always bad underwriting.

38:37And I think the market is very judiciously handled that. But as a systemic problem, we're not worried that spreads have come in pretty rapidly, even for high yield. and the issuance has been sucked down pretty easily. So we continue to see issuance. It's going to get sloppier probably towards the end of the year, but I don't think that's an issue for 2026.

38:54Melissa Lee:Mike, for a couple of years, you've had this kind of call about these rolling sort of recessions, but they're in separate sectors, right? And you've actually said the same thing within the stock market. How does that play out right now? Because you're talking about earnings growth. We know that a lot of that growth, at least in this quarter for the balance of the year, is coming from mega cap tech. And if you strip out some of that, I was looking at some fact set numbers earlier today. I mean, you have non-tech growing at like 6 % or something like that. So where do you see the sort of rolling recessions or the rolling bear markets right now?

39:24Yeah. So what I would say is it's all about earnings. It's the earnings for the median stock within the Russell 3000. Now it's growing double digits. First time we've seen double digit growth in that group for three or four years. Going back to Mel's question earlier, what I liked about today's action, Lily, I'm getting Caterpillar. I mean, that's what drove the Dow. And the mega caps were basically flat to down. That's good. That's a healthy dynamic that I think we're going to, that's what I think is going to happen for the rest of the year. We're going to see this broadening out trade again to areas that have underperformed.

39:51Melissa Lee:What about banks not participating, haven't confirmed the new highs in the S &P? Well, they haven't confirmed the new highs, but there's diversions there, right? Some of the large banks, the capital market stocks are doing just fine. I mean, the regionals are very idiosyncratic. The credit cards have been mixed, although I agree with Karen. I think they're fine here. And then the alt managers, I think, are still troubled. So it's more of a mixed bag there. But I think there's a lot of strength. Loan growth is breaking out right now, and the financials are still one of our favorite groups for the year.

40:16Melissa Lee:Slow creep into 10-year. Where does the market care? Well, it has historically carried at$450. I'll take credit for putting that line up there three years ago, and people watch that now. It's not a coincidence that at$440, it's been defended. It gets back to the Treasury buybacks. It gets back to some other things that are going on in that regard. I think we're fine as long as bond volatility stays sort of below$80. We can probably go to$450, even$460, without causing a real ruckus. All right. Coming up. The CEO of engineering company Plexus joins us next to dig into its latest earnings report.

40:45What is driving the 70 percent gain, 7-0, in the stock this year and what he sees in store in the tech space when Fast Money returns.

41:00Welcome back to Fast Money. Electronics manufacturer Plexus, beating top and bottom line estimates for their most recent quarter, shares up nearly 70 percent this year. To discuss the quarter and what is next for the company, we're joined by Plexus CEO and President Todd Kelsey. Todd, great to have you with us. Thank you, Melissa. What a stock performance. Industrial is one of your biggest segments, also health care. You actually have exposure to data centers, is that right? We do. We do. So when I think about AI and our play in AI, there's a revenue component to it, which semiconductor capital equipment plays really nicely.

41:33But also in data center, we're thermal management, power management. We also leverage AI quite heavily internal to Plexus as well. So we have a team of data scientists and programmers that are solving enterprise-level problems and providing solutions, things like procurement of low-dollar parts as well as production scheduling. We're also deploying it to everybody's desk, the tools.

41:58Melissa Lee:You're at the epicenter of three great industry segments. It's amazing. Margins are the key, right? And you've been inflecting in margins over the last couple of quarters. We have been. That's a huge driver for you guys. Can you speak to that? Yeah. So one of the things, and it goes back a bit to our AI efforts as well as automation and just getting leverage through the top line growth that we're seeing. But we've been able to expand margins. Our plan is to continue to expand those margins as well. Right now we have a target of 6%, which we've been hitting consistently right now, and we're likely to take that up at some point.

42:34Looking across your businesses, is data center, is AI going to be a bigger part of your business, not just the internal use, but in terms of customers and what they're building? Yeah, I think in general. So we don't contract out to the hyperscalers directly. It's all through the next tier of suppliers. But within that power management, thermal management, we have a great funnel, over half a billion dollars within that space. We announced a new win in power solutions that impact the data center this quarter. We have a couple other early stage programs that we're in the pilot phase on right now.

43:08So we see that continuing. And even they're great revenue opportunities as well, too. So what's happening for your business on the cost side? Pardon me? What's happening for your business on the cost side? I mean, I know you have a lot of different businesses. Yeah, well, I think in general, costs have been reasonable. I mean, from a standpoint, a lot of our cost is labor. and labor's been relatively stable across the globe. I mean, of course, we see a little bit of higher inflation in the APAC market than we do in the U.S., but generally relatively stable. Costs have been fairly good. Now, from a standpoint, when we think about inflation and like inflationary pressures, our business model is a cost plus model.

43:50So that passes through to our customers. But we're always concerned about the demand side of that. What would the impact be to the demand side? On the AI side, can you give us an idea of some of the names of some of your customers? I mean, how do we think about like when we see a boom energy spike on earnings or avertive? I mean, how should we think about your business and how it can benefit from this demand that we're seeing elsewhere? Several of them aren't announced yet. We're not able to talk about publicly, but one that I can is GE Vernova. So we actually won a supplier award from GE Vernova just this past year.

44:23Wow. So what is next in terms of growing aerospace? For instance, the aerospace defense is a smaller part of your business. Health care is at 41 percent of revenue and industrial is 41. Aerospace defense is the rest. Are you seeing a benefit from the ongoing conflicts around the world? Yes. I mean, so we're excited about or I'm excited about all our markets. I think they're all double digit growth. But I would say if I was to pick one, aerospace and defense has the most growth potential right now. And there's some secular factors, things like the increased defense spending that's going on within the U.S.

44:54Europe. There's also a leadership position that we have in low-Earth orbit satellites, which is part of that sector, unmanned systems. And then finally, commercial aerospace, the backlog with a Boeing and an Airbus are 10 plus years. And have you seen any sort of hesitation on the part of customers, given what is going on with the war, given maybe concerns that they might have to pare back their workforce or anything like that? No, none at all. The demand environment is really strong for us across all our markets right now. Todd, great to see you. Thanks for joining us. Appreciate it. Thank you so much, Melissa.

45:25Plexus, what a monster of a chart.

45:27Melissa Lee:It's a great company. And I'll be honest, you know, I've never really heard of it until recently. And we met a couple months ago at the NASDAQ. And I said, this is a story we need to get out. So if you want to think of a company like J-Bill, think J-Bill, but think a more diverse and cheaper valuation company than J-Bill in three different business segments as opposed to J-Bill sort of one, one and a half. So great story that more people should know about. This is exactly the kind of stock that was probably forgotten two years ago because we had this sort of low volume economy. As Todd was saying, he's now seeing it across all these different business lines.

45:59So his exposure into this recovery that people don't believe, number one, and it's just getting going. So I think this is pretty exciting. Up next, Final Trade.

46:15Apple shares holding on to gains after our Tim Cook saying he expects significantly higher memory costs in fiscal Q3 and a bigger impact on business from those costs. But the guidance, we should note, did include those supply constraints. Final trade time, Mike.

46:29Melissa Lee:Lily. Karen. Thanks for walking three blocks to be here. Amazon. Apple right here, right now. our most interesting mega cap tech story. Structure Therapy. Thanks for watching Fast. Mad Money starts right now.

46:46All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

47:13To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. On any journey using Uber, it helps to know you're getting into the right car. Pin verification adds an extra step to make sure your ride is your ride. Before the trip begins, your app gives you a unique pin. Just tell it to your driver, and they'll enter it in their app before the ride can start. Hey, what's your pin? 2538 That way you know you're in the right car taking the right trip and your driver knows you're the right passenger Make sure your ride is your ride with pin verification from Uber One more way Uber is putting safety at every turn Learn more on the Uber app