Fast Money 1/14/26

20:34Karen Finerman:Well, it's interesting, again, thrown on a list of stocks that go down every day. There's Microsoft. And and there was a time we would a lot of criticism on the multiple. And I think, you know, I think you can actually start to have a valuation argument in favor. Remember, software budgets, what I'm understanding in the enterprise side are growing somewhere around nine and a half percent a year. The allocation to software for enterprise is not getting smaller. It's getting bigger. And there's no question Microsoft is as powerful as they have ever been. I like Microsoft here. Microsoft, I agree.

21:08But when you look a little bit deeper in the names, Microsoft will always have buyers in that name. When you look at Snowflake, that's back to levels that we saw August 2025. I think that gets interesting. Palantir already had that sell-off pretty recently. I think this one could rally back above 200. And then another interesting one is ServiceNow. That's back to May 2024 levels on a technicals. If it's going to bounce, this would be a great spot for it to start.

21:34Tim Seymour:Are you going to talk about your junk? No. I wasn't going to talk about my junk, although I'm more than happy to. You ever been called Snowflake? Never. Would that bother you? I was going to pay you a compliment. Now, not so much. What I was going to say was, you know, people know Tim is this steely, blue-eyed emerging market specialist, as they should. Okay. But they don't realize that in sort of the off hour, he's a vibe coder. You just don't like to tell people that.

22:00Karen Finerman:No, look, I mean, it would be too much for them, I think, so I just try to keep it to myself. Too much for me.

22:04Tim Seymour:Coming up, more big bank moves today. The latest Factor results weighing on Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup. And what a potential credit card rate cap could mean for the group. Plus, a potential congressional trading ban. The latest on the bill looking to stop lawmakers from stock picking. And who's going to be most impacted? Don't go anywhere. Factor News back in June.

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23:57Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Bummer for the banks. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citi all dropping after their earnings reports this morning. Wells Fargo missing estimates as severance costs drove up expenses. Shares were down 4.6%. Bank of America and Citi both beat expectations, but concerns over their credit card portfolios tied to a potential rate cap sent shares sharply lower. Reports of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on tap for tomorrow. Was it just the setup going in, Karen? I think that's most of it. I mean, we always hate to see that setup going in. And so it was exceptionally bad, I think, this time because they had such a huge run.

24:31I think, you know, each one had a little bit different things. I was surprised Citi got hit as hard as it did. I think the credit card thing is more problematic for them. At the very end, they sort of tried to temper expectations. I think that was a little bit of it. But I think they were sort of all overdone going in. this reaction all overdone going out. We'll see what the credit card, is it going to be? One year, 10 % cap for only new accounts. If that is the case, that's a far different thing. So I think it's somewhat overdone. And I like Citibank here. You know, short some calls. Those are going to go away worthless.

25:11I would look to probably replace them. I think it's overdone. I agree on the Citi front for sure. But, you know, Bank of America, for our crack staff in EC, Michael Figuene can put this up. We're at levels we lost. Thank you, Tim. In 2006 for Bank of America. So you have a major double top. You also have a stock that, you know, at its zenith was trading almost two times tangible book, which I don't think they're deserved of. And if they're deserved of it, Citi is definitely worthy of one and a half or 1.6. So I like Citi better than Bank.

25:41Tim Seymour:Some were disappointed by the NII guide for Bank of America. So that could be part of it.

25:45Karen Finerman:Yeah, and I would, although net interest income came in above some forecasts, but the margin of expansion was less than expected. And I do think that NIMS are an important part of what the story has been for money center banks. But there's no question Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have a different story to tell than money center banks. And the world of deregulation has not been dereg for money center banks. I think we're going to get great numbers, especially given all that's going on in capital markets. If the reason for the latest weakness is more about what you just said to Tim or more about the cap on 10 percent on interest rates, those are two totally different things.

26:23So, yes, the the the entrance of earnings, while we've had such a stellar performance on DREG and everything that the Trump administration brought in. But I don't believe that the cap on rates is even going to take place. I don't think that'll happen. So if that last leg of downward draft is happening because of that, that's a buying opportunity. I sort of think that Goldman Sachs is up more than any of them on the expectation. I mean, Citi had some great numbers from their more Goldman-esque type of businesses. I'm just talking about the news.

26:48Karen Finerman:You're right. Your setup being more important than the news itself is absolutely more important for Goldman. You're right. But the news flow over the last couple of days doesn't affect Goldman as far as I'm concerned.

27:02Tim Seymour:Yeah, there's no credit card cap. Right, and Goldman was down less. Yeah. Right? So Goldman is very near its peak peak. And if you look at J.P. Morgan, it's off 20%. That makes you think it's vulnerable. Correct. Just that people know, wow, for these guys, that's where you want to be. I mean, you know, in the trading, right, when you saw cities trading. Yeah. Right. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Landmark legislation in Washington as Congress looks to ban stock trading by lawmakers, the latest on the vote, and the legislators that could be most affected. Plus, commercial real estate at an inflection point.

27:40what our next guest sees in store for the space and why he's flagging a potential refinance risk. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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29:15Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money, a GOP-backed bill that would ban lawmakers from adding stocks to their current portfolios, passing a key hurdle in the House. CNBC's Emily Wilkins has got the details on this. Emily. Hey, Melissa. Well, yeah, this ban on lawmakers buying new stocks was approved by a House panel today and is expected to get a vote on the House floor soon. Now, the bill still faces a number of hurdles, namely growing opposition from Democrats who say that the bill has a lot of loopholes. Lawmakers, they don't need to divest their assets. They can still buy commodities, futures and diversified funds.

29:51Plus, they can still sell funds if they give funds if they give seven days public notice. And of course, they can use dividends to buy more shares of stocks, all things that Democrats do not want to see. But look, this would be the first stock trading ban to get a vote on the House floor. Lawmakers have been working on this issue for years. And that is because, in part, the levels of trading that go on. Nancy Pelosi and her husband, who does a lot of stock trades, they're probably the most prominent examples of trading in Congress. But if you look at the tracker on capital trades from the past year, this is not a partisan issue.

30:27You're seeing members there of both parties that have made thousands of trades. And while insider trading is hard to prove, there are many cases like lawmakers who sold off a ton of stock before COVID-19 crashed the markets that look very suspicious and have helped really increase the number of lawmakers who support a ban and want to be able to vote on something. Melissa?

30:49Tim Seymour:Emily, on the wall there, there was 4 ,000 trades in one year, Ro Khanna. 4 ,000 trades in one year. And he will say that it wasn't him who made all the trades. That it's, yeah. And some of these members say, look, it's not me. It's, you know, the person who manages my finances or it's a spouse or a partner. But the fact of the matter is that a lot of lawmakers say, look, the perception is there. And we don't truly know. There's no way to really verify exactly who did this or exactly what information that they had. And the lawmakers have just told me this doesn't look good. We can't do it anymore.

31:23Right.

31:24Tim Seymour:But to be specific, this is just Congress and it doesn't apply to cabinet officials or even the president. It doesn't. And that's another reason DEMS are upset with this bill. They're going to offer their own. But of course, they're in the minority right now. So not a huge chance that it passes. Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. I would love to have Ro Khanna on and see what he is trading that often. I mean, 4 ,200 trades in one year. Imagine you're making 10 trades a day at least. And he's here. He's here. 250. I mean, there's 250.

31:58Karen Finerman:Forget Ro Khanna. But, you know, let's just talk about the average person on the hill. They're not involved in any conversations. They're not hearing anything. I mean, I don't understand why this isn't bipartisan. Where's the problem? I think it's appalling. I don't. And I think the rest of the world is held by a different standard. And it's outrageous. But let's take it back. We all everyone agrees with that statement. But take it back. All they're going to do is go into a dark pool. All they're going to do is do it into a fund. No, because then they can be held accountable. I mean, it can be traced into a dark pool.

32:28But right now I can trace it. I have no problem. I think technicals always show.

32:33Tim Seymour:You'd rather have the transparency? I'd rather have transparency. I think insider trading always shows up in technicals. You know how you look around the table when you say—

32:40Karen Finerman:Except for when it's not insider trading. In other words, except for when it's not material and non-public information, when in fact you are someone that is not held by the same standards. But there's a Pelosi tracker. No, no, I'm not disagreeing with anything. I think what I'm saying is it goes into I can't see it anymore. I'd rather transparency of having a Pelosi tracker so that I could actually see what she's buying and what they're buying and what pharma companies they're buying. I think there's an element to it that you're shining a light on, even though they're doing something. Is that so that you can actually you can coattail those trades?

33:11Karen Finerman:I'm trying to understand. I mean, the more if everyone knows that it's not insider information anymore. Right. If the retail audience gets to see exactly what they're doing, it's not insider information. Everyone knows it.

33:21Tim Seymour:But they are making those trades with information that is not available to anybody else. Yes, and then you could trail them and you could make it too. But when you have it. You will never make that same trade. No, no, no, no. You would never. But we'll never see it again. And these guys are smart enough and ladies are smart enough that we're not going to see it. They're going to have it in blind trust. Someone's going to do it. Someone's going to leak it. How do you follow their spouses? How do you follow their kids? It's always going to be there. But when you limit how it's there, I think it goes down a rabbit hole.

33:47I'd rather see it this. It's a bad idea. I don't like insider trading. I don't like anything about it, but at least it's transparent.

33:53Karen Finerman:I mean, Jane Street's always looking for a few good traders. I mean, you know, I mean, Roe, you know, he should show up down and, you know.

33:58Tim Seymour:In his spare time. Apparently, he's got some spare time to make trades. Coming up, the next move in commercial real estate, what our next guest sees in store for this industry this year. And where he's seeing the most opportunity. Fast Money's back in two.

34:18Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stock's down for a second straight day as more bank earnings filtered in. The Dow down about 42 points. The S &P losing half a percent and the Nasdaq leading the losses down 1%. Shares of Intel meantime jumping another 3 % today. The stock is already up more than 32 % this year, trading near two-year highs. And shares of Novo Nordisk lower today. The company's CEO weighing in on potential acquisitions at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference saying they are ready to go very big in their hunt for a deal in the obesity drug space. Novo has been staging a bit of a comeback this year, though.

34:49Tim Seymour:up 16 % in January alone. By the way, do not miss our interview tomorrow with the CEO of Structured Therapeutics, Ray Stevens, on the back of positive phase two data of the company's oral weight loss drug. That is tomorrow right here on Fast Money. So you won't want to miss that. Well, maturing commercial real estate debt is set to peak at nearly$1.3 trillion in 2027, according to S &P Global. And the industry is facing a refinancing reality check with interest rates still well above pre-pandemic levels. For more on CRE in the year ahead, Petrie CEO Greg Friedman joins us now. Greg, great to have you here on set.

35:20Yeah, thank you for having me today.

35:21Tim Seymour:You say 2026 is inflection. In what way and how sharp is that inflection going to be? Yeah, definitely. So going back three years ago now, they were talking about, you know, survive to 2025, which now we're past 2025 and we're in 2026. And I think it's now you've got to grind to 2029. And 2029 really just represents the fact that there's not a quick recovery to commercial real estate. It's going to take some time for commercial real estate to recover. But the reality is there's been a lot of extend and pretend over the last three years with the banks, which make up about 50 % of the commercial real estate debt market, as reported by TRIP.

35:59And banks have continued just to extend loans as a way to deal with the issues with commercial real estate assets. And now you face about a trillion dollars of loans just maturing in 2026, which is two times the normal amount of loans maturing. and they're maturing at a much, you know, in an interest rate environment that's almost, you know, caught 50 % to 100 % higher than what they face at origination.

36:19Tim Seymour:That does not sound like the setup for an inflection point in 2026. It sounds like a big comeuppance in 2026 for the space. Yeah, so I think it's an inflection point in the sense that finally, I think you're going to start seeing assets trade because the market's been very muted just on assets being able to trade and really recalibrate to this new normal, you know, higher for longer long-term interest rates. And that's where I really see the market being at that inflection point. that it's really not an issue with the fundamentals at the asset level with the performance. It's more of an issue of broken balance sheets.

36:49And up until this point in time, I feel like we've just sort of extended out the issues versus dealing with them. Greg, the market's focused on Fed, Fed rate cuts, but in reality, it's 10-year yield and everything outside that duration that matters. Speaks to that. That's right. Like the 10-year Treasury is the risk-free rate, and the 10 years double what it was between 2010 to 2022. and has a very negative impact to the values of commercial real estate assets. And you've seen with just the drop in short-term rates, you know, with federal funds rates, you know, the 10 years remain elevated. It hasn't even come down.

37:24And I think that's going to be the case, you know, over the next several years. And when you look at, you know, assets trading that have traded over the last three years, some of the cap rates are, you know, pretty astounding on the low side, just because values haven't fully recalibrated to this new thought process that the 10-year is going to stay above 4%. So you talked about some of the Class A stuff performing and the business doing fine might be a balance sheet, but for B and C, which is a different story, particularly in New York, that model isn't working. Do you see a ton of just turnover?

38:00You're expecting a ton of turnover, buildings that have to get sold? Yeah, so I think buildings, I think when you look at office buildings, you know, specifically, you know, if you're referencing office buildings, I think the Class A is starting across the U.S. You're starting to see them actually lease up. You know, there's more demand for that space really driven by the AI trade. I mean, that's helping, you know, get a lot of these office buildings. You know, you're starting to see stabilization on the, you know, really the Class A office buildings. The Class B and C are still challenged. And there's still, you know, there's a bifurcation within the office space that's, you know, that has been taking place over the last year.

38:34I think it's becoming clearer now that you have a lot of winners within the office space where these are assets that should do well long term. You do have some challenges, you know, across certain buildings that probably are never going to recover just because, you know,

38:47Karen Finerman:the Class B and Class C buildings that just lack the right locations, the right amenity set to ever, you know, get leased back up. Greg, help us understand the timeline. Sounds like 26 is this period where stuff is happening and some of it not good. And so as you're gauging, even for investors watching the show tonight, whether they're professional retail that invest in commercial real estate, and there have been times, again, you know, coming out of COVID where there were huge opportunities where things were mispriced. And I'm, you know, so when's, it's not all assets, but give us an idea in 26 when you actually think you're going to start to see some credit events that are going to create blowouts that are going to create buying opportunities.

39:26Karen Finerman:I mean, it's happening now. We're buying, I mean, because we're buying a lot of loans from banks. You know, we bought in 2025, we bought$600 million worth of loans. So the three, you know, caught$3 billion of loans that we originated or new debt investments that we made. 20 % of that was loan purchases. That was the most that we've done since 2021, going back to COVID in the first half of 2021. And we bought a bunch of loans, primarily on hotel assets that were in trouble. And you're starting to see that trade occur now where banks and other lenders are just selling off paper, you know, at discounts.

39:57Karen Finerman:So you're saying it was$3 billion face that you bought for$600, so you're trading at 20 %? No, no, no. So we originated, yeah, I apologize. So we bought$600 million worth of loans that we bought probably on average a 10 % to 20 % discount off of face. And then we originated another$2.4 billion of loans that we originated. Just, you know, there were new loans that we made that were first mortgage loans that financed the acquisition, development of commercial real estate assets.

40:20Tim Seymour:Greg, great to get your perspective. Thank you so much for stopping by. Yeah, thank you for having me. Coming up, it's day three of our Fast Money Trader Acronym Reveal. Julie Beal is in the wings with something she hopes isn't delusional. Plus, is there a new chart master in town? We'll explain when Fast Money returns.

40:41Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. It is day three of unveiling our 2026 trader acronyms. Today, we have got Julie Beal with her picks. Now, last year's Julie's MOCA acronym consisted of Moellis, Ollie's, Clearwater, Hermes, and Aon. It was down 9 % in 2022. So, Julie, what do you think will turn things around for you now? I don't know, but I'm working with Delulu. So, obviously, it's very important to get good Gen Z slang into the investment community, and I take that responsibility really seriously. Delulu, in addition to being an acronym, is an onomatopoeia. It is what it sounds like, Delulu. The D is Descartes.

41:21you can think of this as the Bloomberg terminal for any kind of shipping, commercial shipping that you do. It's where all of the information and action happens. The E is for Enerpac. This is some nice small cap industrial exposure, but it's a quality name that's pretty durable. The L is for LeMetre, which is a healthcare company that I think is well positioned, has lots of pricing power, and kind of stays out of the regulatory crosswinds, which I think is pretty important in healthcare. The U is for ULS, which is, you can think of it as like the Moody's for electric bulbs. They're the standards that tell you exactly what things are rated at or safety, et cetera.

41:57What's the other? The other L is LPL financial, which I think is really nice exposure to kind of continuing equity markets and a little bit of an interest rate hedge, kind of. And the U is Ulta. Ulta, I think, is really well positioned to have a good uptick in demand from more makeup and the ability to really get that front of their store really marketed, it, really merchandise it. I think they're quite well positioned for the next year.

42:23Tim Seymour:I'm not sure if Julie really abided by the rules. I think she did great. I thought you were saying the Lulu, like the Lulu. I didn't, I totally didn't get the Lulu, like delusional. Delusional. That's a thing. That's a thing. Yeah. Okay. Good work, Julie. Karen likes Sulta. Julie, thank you. By the way, we should mention that Courtney Garcia couldn't join us this week to reveal her acronym, but she gave us permission to lay out the trade on her behalf. Courtney's 2025 global trade finished fourth among the traders, up 20%. Alibaba led the way, up 76%. Goldman Sachs was next, gaining 57%. This year, she is channeling Carter Worth.

43:03Tim Seymour:Her acronym, CHARTS, Caterpillar, to play AI-driven power demand, Home Depot to benefit from the home improvement market, AstraZeneca to get exposure to global health care, Rio Tinto to take advantage of the growing trends in electrification and decarbonization, Taiwan Semi, for chips and SLB to trade global energy. Charts for Courtney Garcia. She couldn't deliver the acronym herself. She's too busy delivering her own baby. Yes. Oh, congrats. So what do you think? Well, I mean, I dig the charts. Why not just chart?

43:38Karen Finerman:Then you don't have SLB, which could be really good. I understand that. But at some point, why don't I just put down 25 letters? I don't want to be critical of Courtney because she deserves so much support right now. And she could have made it short. I'm sure you've sharted before.

43:55Tim Seymour:Why do you have to sniffle like that? We're going to go to break. Bitcoin staging a stealth rally to start the year. What our traders think is behind the recent thump and where the token is heading from here. More Fast Money in two.

44:16Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Bitcoin continuing its climb higher now, trading above$97 ,000, up more than 10 % over the last two weeks. And between pending crypto legislation, the approaching tariff ruling, and even the turmoil in Iran, our traders spotted several catalysts for the move. Steve, what did you make of this? Yeah, I think it's more of just the fiscal state that the U.S. is in right now. So if we have to, I guess tariffs have already produced maybe$300 billion,$250 to$300 billion. So the fiscal state probably takes a dip if tariffs are rejected. And then you have, you know, the issue with gold and silver rallying.

44:50So I think this is just an alt rally. I think both of them have their near term catalyst.

44:55Karen Finerman:I think this is more about the SCOTUS decision versus the congressional regulatory framework. I think this was just it was oversold. I mean, I think we had a leverage dynamic. I think we had a momentum dynamic. I think we had a couple of major players that had to be dumping. And I do think that there are a lot of people out there. Excuse me. People are laughing for some reason. And I'll let people decide why that might be happening. But I do think that this Bitcoin crypto bill that is being discussed right now is a catalyst. You've got a lot of people in Washington that want to see this go through.

45:28Karen Finerman:More regulation means higher prices. Karen? I agree on both. I think that overdone and then the clarity bill and then some of these other things. and maybe there's a little Fed independence in there somewhere. It was so funny, Mel. A lot of people are dumping, Tim, and it comes on the heels of you sharding. It's obviously in your head. Stand up for the camera. I didn't know what that means.

45:50Tim Seymour:It was 30 seconds ago and it's horrendous. Up next to Final Trades. I mean.

46:02Tim Seymour:Time for the Final Trade, Tim.

46:04Karen Finerman:The humor tonight was really a little off color, But if you need to powder up, go to Estee Lauder. Karen. Yes, Citibank down over$10 in the last few days. I think it's overdone. I like it. Steven. Exxon. Seems a little extended here, but I think you've got a little more left. Guy. So we've had four or five reveals. Two of the five, I think, did not play. It's amazing. And we were sort of adamant about rule follows. Every year it happens. It's unbelievable. Yeah, I'm sorry, Guy. Rick, I think, continues to work here, Melissa Lee.

46:34Tim Seymour:All right, thanks for watching Fast. Stay back here tomorrow at 5 for more Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

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